Barrons : 5 New Stocks That Are Hedge Funds’ Favorites (EBAY, JPM, NOW, PYPL, TM

The general public recently got a glimpse at what some of Wall Street’s best minds were thinking during the second quarter. Now investors are looking for patterns.

Last week, hedge funds and other large investment managers filed their quarterly 13-F filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. There were some surprises, such as Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway slashing many of its positions in banks in favor of Barrick Gold (ticker: GOLD). But perhaps because market volatility is encouraging traders to shift in and out of positions faster, the disclosures generated less fanfare than in previous quarters.

That isn’t to say there weren’t trends to observe. Analysts at RBC Capital Markets surveyed the filings of 337 funds and found that the people making the calls continue to like companies in tech, the internet, media, and telecom. Hedge funds were also overweight in health care stocks, but to a lesser degree.

Among the top 20 holdings in hedge funds on a dollar basis, RBC observed five new stocks: eBay (EBAY), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), ServiceNow (NOW), Paypal (PYPL) and T-Mobile US (TMUS). Those names replaced Allergan, which was acquired by AbbVie (ABB) and is still in the top 20; Biogen (BIIB); Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY); Johnson & Johnson (JNJ); and Merck (MRK).

The RBC team also found that the funds’ favorite holdings have done better than the market so far this year, though their performance has turned “choppy.” RBC says this usually happens when investors start favoring value investments or opt to cash in their gains.

“If growth leadership remains under pressure or hedge funds decide to take profits, we’d expect to see these names underperform or relative performance continue to stall,” Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC, said in a note Thursday.

Of course, there are also the usual disclaimers about analyzing 13Fs. The reports come 45 days after the close of the quarter, so fund managers may have shifted their holdings since then. Also, funds are only required to report their long equity holdings and options, meaning that what appears to be a bullish position in a stock could actually be held as a hedge against an undisclosed bet that the shares could fall. Or, it may be a tiny fraction of the fund’s total holdings.

Still, the disclosures have their place. Coupled with a deeper knowledge of a fund manager’s general investment strategy, the reports can be quite useful in assessing their view of the markets and potential opportunities. And filings from multiple managers, when taken together, can of course give insights into broader market trends.

Funds have to report their holdings for the third quarter by Nov. 15.

FT : What does a still-young former BT chief do next?

What does a still-young former BT chief do next?
After leaving the telecoms group, Gavin Patterson joined Silicon Valley’s Salesforce — and is ready to learn

Coronavirus has thrown up some unusual meetings. But few have been stranger than my experience of interviewing former BT boss turned Salesforce sales chief Gavin Patterson, on a video call as he sits in the back of his Audi A8 outside a west London restaurant.

When we speak, he says he has only been out of the house half a dozen times since the coronavirus lockdown. Crucially, this has delayed his arrival in the US, where the Surrey-based executive was due to fly for his new job as chief revenue officer for Salesforce in San Francisco.

Mr Patterson, who started the job on August 1, is unfazed. “In effect, it [the pandemic] has been a great leveller for the [executive] team because everybody is dialling in, everybody’s operating on Zoom. The fact that I can’t travel has not really limited our ability to do business.”

The CRO position is an unexpected next act at the $183bn tech group for Mr Patterson, who at 52 is one of the FTSE 100’s younger former chief executives. The promotions through the software-as-a-service provider have come quickly after he took a part-time role last year as Emea chair to help Salesforce bring together an advisory panel in the region.

This then became an executive role looking after the company’s non-US operations, making him part of the small band of senior bosses reporting directly to Marc Benioff, Salesforce’s founder. 

Driving sales is an important role for a company that has registered a 20 per cent increase in compound annual growth every year since it was founded 20 years ago. “It’s a business that is designed for growth. The big challenge is how do you keep growing at 20 per cent a year?”

Coronavirus has caused disruption that has made companies look again at digital adoption, says Mr Patterson, who adds that his network of relationships in boardrooms around the world attracted the attention of Mr Benioff, whom he knew as a customer from his time at BT.

“If anything, digital transformation has become more important. If you don’t have a strong digital transformation strategy then you will get left behind,” he says. “Salesforce has the best products in each of these markets and the imperative has increased. If you are a market leader in CRM [customer relationship management], frankly this is an opportunity to accelerate growth. International has more scope to grow than the US but I expect the US to grow as well.”

Even on a small mobile screen, Mr Patterson still looks the same as he did at BT, where he favoured plunging open-neck tailored shirts and kept his hair long. During his initial years as BT’s CEO, the casual look helped position him as a new broom in the dowdy former public utility.

During his leadership, from 2013 to early 2019, he innovated with moves such as the blockbuster takeover of mobile operator EE, and committed BT to a costly but defining move into top-tier football broadcasting. 

But the “old” BT proved hard to shake. Fraud was discovered in BT’s Italian operations — from before his time, he says, but discovered on his watch. Life was made difficult by demanding investors and pension holders and, as ever with the former state telecoms incumbent, the constant regulatory battles that almost led to the forced split of its network. 

“The best of times and the worst of times,” is how Mr Patterson describes it now. “The first four years, everything seemed to go well, and business returned to growth [but] as with all these things the weather turns.” He was sacked in June 2018 but stayed on until his successor Philip Jansen was appointed.

His biggest challenge had become managing the business’s many stakeholders. “It is a brutal job in many ways. Very challenging trying to balance the expectations of government, pension holders, customers, shareholders, employees.” 

Now, he realises, “there isn’t a point where you can meet all their needs at the same time”. But, looking back, he says: “We did the right thing at the right time and I stand by it,” pointing to lessons learnt about the need to quickly set a strategy not dependent on “externalities” such as government whims. “Communication is critical,” he adds, saying that he would carry this lesson into the new Salesforce role. In a “period of anxiety for everybody . . . providing clarity, direction and certainty where you can is a high priority”.

Talking about some of the criticism that came in later years at BT, he says: “Actually, I didn’t feel it. I knew that it was just part of the job and I had to get on with it.” It was, however, not possible to ignore it completely. “I can’t deny there are moments you feel extremely lonely and occasionally things are unfair,” he says.

“You need to make sure that you don’t take it all too personally, even though a lot of it is extremely personal. And recognise that it’s just the chapter in your life.”

Then came a different sort of challenge. “Having been a CEO of a listed company, relatively young, it is quite difficult to find something on the executive front you want to do afterwards that feels like progression,” says Mr Patterson. 

“Because strangely doing another CEO job doesn’t necessarily meet that brief and certainly not doing one in a smaller company.”

After BT, he took some time out, watching his beloved Liverpool football club and bumping into the telecoms crowd at events such as the Glastonbury music festival. “You do think, ‘Well, what am I going to do? I’m only halfway through my life’.”

He wasn’t sure he wanted another executive role, instead thinking about a portfolio career, but then Mr Benioff came calling.

Mr Patterson is not coming cold to the sometimes idiosyncratic world of Silicon Valley. He has attended the 170,000-strong “Dreamforce” software conference held by Salesforce in San Francisco, which features the sort of enthusiastic cheerleading by “Trailblazers” — customers and partners using its platform — that could make a Briton blush.

“I've been visiting Silicon Valley for 20 years and every time I’ve come back feeling rejuvenated by the experience, there’s just a different mindset,” Mr Patterson says.

“Decisions are made real time with real time data, including AI components that you are effectively steering in the way you would steer a car down a motorway. I can’t remember reading a paper, a board paper or an exact paper yet. You have to be close to customers and know what they’re thinking.”

In comparison, BT was “built on board papers . . . honed and developed and then presented”.

He sees Salesforce as a “great experience . . . and I feel I can learn”, before adding, with a nod to the past, “I can’t deny it’s refreshing to be in growth markets again, because as you and I both know telcos are not known for growth.”

Salesforce’s agility is helping it deal with the current crisis, he adds. “I don’t think the company’s missed a beat in spite of not having any face to face events.”

A new home on the West Coast awaits when he returns to international travel, leaving behind his three children at various stages of education as well as regular trips to Anfield. He is confident he can keep watching Premier League matches, saying four games a day on Saturdays were now possible with a 4am start. “It’s going to be a bit of a challenge but, you know . . . ”

>>> Barron’s Weekend Summary

Barron’s Weekend Summary: Getting students back to school is crucial for an economic recovery; ORCL’s bid for TikTok seems misguided

* Cover Story: “The only thing standing between a recovery and a double-dip recession might be the back-to-school season”; Schools are vital to the US economy, providing child care for working parents, fueling spending at retailers, and funding businesses that provide food for cafeterias and dispose of the garbage they create—and their absence could cost the economy $700B in lost revenue and productivity, not to mention potential long-term damage to the labor market.

* Tech Trader: Analysts are uncertain why ORCL is making a bid for TikTok, which offers few synergies with the company's businesses, while rival bidder MSFT has experience in teen-focused consumer products, sells advertising, already owns a social network, and has a far stronger balance sheet—and though chief Larry Ellison may have Trump’s support, “winning this battle might not be his best move.”

* Trader: Some observers claim that a successful vaccine is already priced into the market, but UBS strategist Keith Parker contends there may be more room to go—he looked at how the S&P 500 performed when there was well-above-normal vaccine sentiment and found that it returned 1.6 percent on those days; Positive on GM: While TSLA shares continue to soar, General Motors might be the better buy—it has a legacy car business, a growing electric-vehicle division, and an autonomous driving unit, and the EV business alone could be worth up to $100B.

* Interview: Jim Osman, founder of boutique research firm The Edge, focuses on special situations—underfollowed companies, unique circumstances, or difficult-to-understand investments, which aren’t meant to compete with the broader market, but to complement it.

* Profile: Judith Vale, co-senior portfolio manager of the $10.7B Neuberger Berman Genesis fund, takes a risk-averse approach to managing small-cap stocks, noting that big gains won’t necessarily offset big losses; the fund’s hallmark is minimizing how much of a broader market fall it experiences (top 10 holdings: POOL, WST, FICO, MANH, MKTX, TECH, TYL, POWI, CHE, AZPN).

* Features: 1) Positive on SYNA: The company has rallied almost 150 percent in the past 12 months, reversing the prior four years’ losses, and more gains could lie ahead as chief Michael Hurlston and his team continue to restructure and grow the business, which analysts seem to underappreciate; 2) NYU finance professor Aswath Damodaran says that higher education is an example of stakeholder capitalism run amok, that it should serve students but instead serves overlapping and sometimes conflicting interests, and that it is long overdue for a restructuring; 3) Positive on NKE, WMT, TGT, TJX: Back-to-school spending—second in importance on the retail calendar only to the holiday shopping season—is expected to end up about flat with last year’s, at $28.1B, or $529 per student, according to Deloitte, and large retailers that have continued to thrive during the pandemic are likely to continue to outperform as the school season starts up; 4) Positive on WH: “Hotel companies may not look like a smart bet during a pandemic that has driven a sharp decline in travel, but the world’s largest chain of franchised hotels could be an exception” because its focus on budget hotels and leisure customers puts it in a strong position.

* European Trader: Cautious on Securitas: Swedish security company, the world’s largest, had been struggling with a number of issues before the coronavirus pandemic, and the combination of those problems and coronavirus-related challenges means investors may want to avoid the stock for now.

* Emerging Markets: The Trump administration’s latest action against Huawei marks a significant escalation in the tech cold war—no components or software with any US content produced anywhere can be sold to the Shenzhen-based company without a license from Washington, a move that puts the company in the same camp as Iran or Venezuela in the eyes of Washington.

* Commodities: “Two different diseases on two different continents are set to leave the world without enough pigs to fulfill the demand for pork and other related meats. That, in turn, should cause a rally in the price of lean hogs over the next few weeks.”

FT : Biden says he is willing to ‘shut down’ US to contain Covid-19

Biden says he is willing to ‘shut down’ US to contain Covid-19
Democratic candidate vows to follow advice of scientists if elected in November

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden said he would “shut down” the country if elected president to stop the spread of coronavirus if scientists recommended it. 

“I will be prepared to do whatever it takes to save lives because we cannot get the country moving, until we control the virus,” said Mr Biden in an interview with ABC to be aired on Sunday evening. 

“That is the fundamental flaw of this administration’s thinking to begin with. In order to keep the country running and moving and the economy growing, and people employed, you have to fix the virus, you have to deal with the virus.”

When asked if he would be willing to shut the country down if that was recommended by scientists, Mr Biden replied: “I would shut it down, I would listen to the scientists.” 

Mr Biden was interviewed alongside vice-presidential candidate, Kamala Harris, in their first joint television appearance. ABC released clips of the interview on Friday and Saturday.

When asked what she thought about insults directed at her by Donald Trump, Ms Harris said they were “designed to distract the American people from what he is doing every day.”

“That is about neglect, negligence and harm to the American people,” she added.

Democrats have attacked Mr Trump’s handling of the coronavirus throughout the convention. Mr Biden on Thursday said the president had presided over “the worst performance of any nation on earth” when it came to containing the pandemic.

While formally accepting the Democratic nomination on Thursday evening, Mr Biden pledged that if elected he would “take the muzzle off our experts” to ensure that the public received accurate information about the situation.

The US leads the world in deaths from Covid-19, with the virus having killed more than 167,262 Americans as of Friday, according to the Covid Tracking Project.

The pandemic has also triggered mass unemployment, with new claims for unemployment benefits rising back above 1m last week, as the pace of lay-offs picked up again.

The White House and congressional Democrats are locked in a stand-off over an extension of the proposed stimulus bill to prop up the US economy, with Republicans pushing to slash the amount of emergency jobless benefits.

>>> US Close Dow +0.69% S&P +0.34% Nasdaq +0.42% Russell -0.76%

Closing Market Summary

The stock market enjoyed another banner week, which ended with the S&P 500 (+0.3%) and Nasdaq Composite (+0.4%) at fresh record highs. The two indices gained 0.7% and 2.7% for the week, respectively. The Dow (+0.7%) outperformed today, ending the week unchanged.

While the Friday session ended on a firmly higher note, the bulk of the trading day saw the S&P 500 oscillate near its flat line. However, the technology sector (+1.2%) continued showing relative strength thanks to a big gain in Apple (AAPL 497.48, +24.38, +5.2%), which offered daylong support to the entire market.

Most of the remaining ten sectors spent the bulk of the day in negative territory, but the continued outperformance in technology emboldened some late buying elsewhere. As a result, only four sectors ended in the red with losses ranging from 0.3% (financials) to 0.6% (energy) while heavily-weighted groups like industrials (+0.3%) and consumer discretionary (+0.3%) recorded gains.

Industrials received a notable boost from Deere (DE 199.50, +8.40, +4.4%) after the company reported better than expected results for Q3 and issued net income guidance for the fiscal year. Transport stocks had a good showing, but the Dow Jones Transportation Average (+0.4%) still shed 0.2% for the week.

The consumer discretionary sector received some assistance from homebuilders after today's release of a stronger than expected Existing Home Sales report for July, which followed better than expected Housing Starts and Building Permits on Tuesday. The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB 56.59, +1.20, +2.2%) climbed to a fresh record high.

The energy sector was the day's worst performer, surrendering 6.3% for the week. Crude oil fell $0.31, or 0.7%, to $42.31/bbl, but gained $0.26, or 0.6%, for the week.

Treasuries ended mixed with shorter tenors ending lower while the long bond outperformed. The 10-yr note ended little changed with its yield at 0.64%.

Friday's news flow was limited, as lawmakers in Washington did not get any closer to reaching a fiscal stimulus deal while trade representatives from China and the U.S. will reportedly talk in the near future.

Today's economic data was limited to Existing Home Sales for July, which soared 24.7% m/m to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.86 million (consensus 5.39 million). That is the largest monthly increase on record, eclipsing the prior record seen in June. Total sales in July were up 8.7% from a year ago.

The key takeaway from the report is that it reflects robust demand for existing homes. That is constraining supply even further, which will be a pressure point that feeds higher prices and bolsters the prospects for new home sales.

  • Nasdaq Composite +26.1% YTD
  • S&P 500 +5.2% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average -2.1% YTD
  • Russell 2000 -6.9% YTD

FT : Wirecard break-up begins as it sells off UK and Brazil businesses

Wirecard break-up begins as it sells off UK and Brazil businesses
Railsbank set to take on collapsed German group’s UK payment card technology, clients and some staff

The break-up of the collapsed German payments company Wirecard has started after it agreed to sell the remnants of its UK business to Railsbank, a UK start-up backed by Visa, and sold its Brazilian offshoot.

The UK deal, which is expected to be completed in November, would involve Railsbank taking on Wirecard’s UK payment card technology, clients and some staff.

Railsbank declined to comment on the financial terms of the deal. Wirecard would require written consent from the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) to sell its UK operations. A person close to the regulator said it was not clear whether permission had yet been granted.

Administrators are in the middle of dismantling Wirecard, which was worth as much as €24bn at its height but collapsed into insolvency in June after the revelation of one of postwar Germany’s largest frauds.

On Friday, the administrators said an agreement had been signed for the sale of Wirecard’s Brazilian business to PagSeguro Digital, a New York-listed competitor.

They added that the sales process for Wirecard North America, formerly Citigroup’s Prepaid Card Services business, was “well advanced” adding that “final acquisition offers are expected here shortly”.

Munich-based lawyer Michael Jaffé, the administrator, said he had received indicative offers from “several notable interested parties” for the core Wirecard AG payment processing business based in Aschheim, near Munich.

Wirecard Bank, the group’s Germany-based lender, is not part of the insolvency. Germany’s banking watchdog BaFin ringfenced the bank from the stricken group and installed a special representative to monitor it.

“It is particularly pleasing that the sale of Wirecard Brazil has been the first success with respect to the sale of assets, because the framework conditions of the Wirecard insolvency proceedings have been, and still are, very difficult,” Mr Jaffé said in a statement on Friday.

After persistent reports of accounting irregularities, including by the Financial Times, Wirecard admitted in June that €1.9bn of cash was missing, causing its shares to lose almost all of their value.

Wirecard Card Solutions (WCS), its UK subsidiary, issued prepaid cards and processed payments for other financial start-ups that did not yet have the necessary licences. It was at one time an important part of the UK’s fintech infrastructure, providing early support to online-only banks such as Revolut and Monzo.

Railsbank, however, would inherit a significantly diminished customer base: many of Wirecard’s largest UK clients had already left or made plans to leave after regulators temporarily banned it from operating after the parent company’s administration in June.

Businesses including Morses Club, Curve and Soldo have stopped using WCS, while Anna Money is finalising its move and expects to transfer customers within weeks.

The FCA ordered a temporary freeze on WCS’s activities to protect customer deposits and prevent it from transferring assets to its parent company. The freeze was enacted with little warning, and left hundreds of thousands of customers, including many vulnerable people, unable to access money for several days.

Railsbank was founded in 2016 and is run by co-founder Nigel Verdon. This year it raised an undisclosed sum from Visa to support expansion in south-east Asia. Like WCS, it provides technology for other start-ups to issue cards and transfer customer money.

WCS reported revenues of £62m and a pre-tax profit of £2.5m in 2018, the most recent year for which figures are available. However, it had support from its parent company. “It’s naive to think WCS is a truly profitable business,” Mr Verdon has previously said.

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down

In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:

  • GAN -15.7%, PDD -8.8%, UI -7.9%, BZUN -5.3%, OSIS -2.7%

Other news:

  • DKL -1.2% (files for 14 mln common unit offering by selling shareholder)
  • MIST -0.9% (stock offering)
  • EFSC -0.6% (to merge with SCBH)
  • BDX -0.5% (provides update on recall of BD Alaris System hardware)

Analyst comments:

  • AJG -1.8% (downgraded to Underperform from Buy at BofA Securities)
  • NBL -1.1% (downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley)
  • DHI -1% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Wedbush)
  • PLAN -0.8% (initiated with a Sell at Loop Capital)