>>> Crypto Crash of 10th of OCtober - What Happened and read across of recent Price action implications
We never really understood why the big crypto crash started on October 10th and why we couldn't even get a single meaningful bounce!
Today the answer seem simple!
Let me break it down.
1. DAT's like MSTR, BMNR and others have been one of 2 big buyers that powered this cycle.
2. The DAT game is simple, you need to be the biggest so that you get into the big indices and when you do, passive index trackers are forced to buy large amounts of your stock. As they do you get bigger and get added to more indices, and so the cycle perpetuates.
3. On EXACTLY 10th October, MSCI , the world's 2nd biggest Index company published the below. They are questioning whether companies that hold crypto assets as their core business, should be considered as "companies" or "funds".
4. If they are "funds" they are not included in passive indexing. why, because this creates a circular loop. The fund buys assets , gets bigger and then is included in more indices and buys more assets.
5. The expected ruling will be announced on 15 January 2026 and if this does pass, the companies like MSTR will be automatically removed from all indices.
6. If this happens it would mean that all the pension funds, normal funds and all other passive index holders would dump their MSTR automatically.
7. It would also mean that going forward they would never be included and as such , one of the big reasons why they actually exist would disappear.
8 . Since DATs have been powering this cycle and have been most the buying pressure, the smart money saw this immediately after the 10TH of October announcement and positioned accordingly.
9. The 10TH of October wasn't a coincidence after all - It was smart money seeing a big risk to crypto and the current market structure.
10. The market will probably continue to dum until around the end of December and if the announcement is negative, we will get a huge dump in preparation for the removal from the indices.
11. On the other hand , if it is positive , the bull market is back!!
Altman Memo Forecasts ‘Rough Vibes’ Due to Resurgent Google
The Takeaway
- OpenAI’s CEO acknowledged Google’s progress in an AI development field that’s been challenging for OpenAI
- Google’s turnaround is a vindication for CEO Sundar Pichai
- OpenAI’s tech lead is narrowing and its cash burn projections have raised questions among investors
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman told colleagues last month that Google’s recent progress in artificial intelligence could “create some temporary economic headwinds for our company,” though he added that OpenAI would emerge ahead.
After OpenAI researchers heard that Google had created a new AI that appears to have leapfrogged OpenAI’s in the way it was developed, Altman said in the memo that “we know we have some work to do but we are catching up fast.” Still, he cautioned employees that “I expect the vibes out there to be rough for a bit.”
The memo foreshadowed Google’s launch this week of Gemini 3, an AI model that software developers say excels in automating tasks related to website and product design as well as in coding—a capability that is one of the most important drivers of revenue at AI firms like OpenAI.
Altman’s comments show that OpenAI’s technological lead over rivals like Google and Anthropic has narrowed. Investors have sunk more than $60 billion into OpenAI, recently valuing it at $500 billion, on the belief it will continue to dominate the market for developing AI that creates content and reasons the way humans do.
An OpenAI spokesperson declined to comment.
That domination is teetering. Anthropic, a four-year-old firm whose founders previously worked at OpenAI, appears poised to generate more revenue than OpenAI this year from selling AI to software developers and businesses through an application programming interface, The Information reported earlier this month. Anthropic’s models specialize in generating computer code based on what customers want to develop, from new apps to updating existing code.
Google, meanwhile, continues to use its search app and other products to promote its Gemini chatbot, which competes with OpenAI’s ChatGPT. To be sure, ChatGPT is significantly ahead of the Gemini chatbot in terms of usage and revenue, but the gap has been shrinking.
“ChatGPT is AI to most people, and I expect that to continue,” Altman said in the memo.
Google’s other advantage is economic. OpenAI is one of the fastest growing businesses in history, going from next to no revenue in 2022 to a projected $13 billion this year. But it also has projected it would burn more than $100 billion in pursuit of human-level AI in the coming years while spending hundreds of billions of dollars to rent servers to do it, meaning it will likely need to raise the same amount in additional capital.
Meanwhile, Google, valued at $3.5 trillion, generated more than $70 billion in free cash flow over the past four quarters alone. While ChatGPT looks poised to take a bite out of Google Search, Google’s financial performance has improved, in part because it also has a booming cloud business that rents out servers to large customers including OpenAI and Anthropic.
The financial disparity between OpenAI and established firms like Google has prompted public market investors to question whether the startup’s unprecedented revenue growth, including projected growth, will be enough to erase concerns about its future cash burn.
Google’s turnaround is a vindication for CEO Sundar Pichai and his decision to merge dueling AI labs within Google as well as to effectively pay $3 billion last year to bring back longtime AI researcher Noam Shazeer, who had left to launch a chatbot startup.
Training Challenges
Altman, in his note, acknowledged that “by all accounts, Google has been doing excellent work recently,” especially on pretraining, the first phase of developing a large language model that can generate text or images. In that phase, AI researchers expose an LLM to data from the web and other sources so it can learn connections between them.
Google’s success with pretraining in particular came as a surprise to many AI researchers, given that OpenAI at times has struggled to eke out gains from pretraining, an issue Google also wrestled with for a while. Those challenges previously prompted OpenAI to focus more on a newer type of AI model, known as reasoning, which uses more processing power to produce better answers.
And before OpenAI launched its GPT-5 model this summer, its employees found the tweaks they made to the model during pretraining worked when the model was smaller in size but stopped working as it grew, The Information previously reported. That suggests OpenAI will have to resolve these pretraining issues to catch up to Google in that field.
Altman last month assured staff that OpenAI would gain ground in the coming months, including with a new LLM, codenamed Shallotpeat. In developing that model, OpenAI aims to fix bugs it has encountered in the pretraining process, according to a person with knowledge of the model.
Altman said he wanted to focus on “very ambitious bets” technologically, even if it meant that OpenAI would get “temporarily behind in the current regime.” They include advancements in using AI to generate data that could train new AI and “posttraining” techniques such as reinforcement learning, which is essentially a way to rate a model’s answers positively or negatively so it can learn to improve them.
He has privately and publicly discussed the company’s bet on automating AI research itself as a way to speed up breakthroughs, including an AI’s ability to surpass humans in everything from energy and biotech research to healthcare.
“We need to stay focused through short-term competitive pressure,” Altman said in the memo. “We have built up enough strength as a company to weather great models shipping elsewhere. But having most of our research team stay focused on really getting to superintelligence is critically important.”
He added: “I don’t want this note to be a downer—we are doing remarkably well as a company…and I expect that to continue.”
He ended by saying that “it sucks that we have to do so many hard things at the same time—the best research lab, the best AI infrastructure company, and the best AI platform/product company—but such is our lot in life. And I wouldn’t trade positions with any other company :)”
New York Fed President John Williams (voting FOMC member) says "I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral"
- It is not possible to measure the effects of trade policy actions on inflation with precision. My estimate is that increased tariffs have contributed about one half to three quarters of a percentage point to the current inflation rate. I do not see any signs of tariffs contributing to second-round or other spillover effects on inflation. In particular, inflation expectations are very well anchored, no broad-based supply chain bottlenecks have emerged, labor markets are not creating inflationary pressures, and wage growth has moderated. As a result, I expect the effects of tariffs on inflation will play out over the rest of this year and the first half of next year. Inflation should thereafter get back on track to 2 percent in 2027.
- Given this backdrop, monetary policy is very focused on balancing the downside risks to our maximum employment goal and the upside risks to price stability. My assessment is that the downside risks to employment have increased as the labor market has cooled, while the upside risks to inflation have lessened somewhat. Underlying inflation continues to trend downward, absent any evidence of second-round effects emanating from tariffs. For these reasons, I fully supported the FOMC's decisions to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at each of its past two meetings.
- Looking ahead, it is imperative to restore inflation to our 2 percent longer-run goal on a sustained basis. It is equally important to do so without creating undue risks to our maximum employment goal. I view monetary policy as being modestly restrictive, although somewhat less so than before our recent actions. Therefore, I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral, thereby maintaining the balance between the achievement of our two goals. My policy views will, as always, be based on the evolution of the totality of the data, the economic outlook, and the balance of risks to the achievement of our maximum employment and price stability goals.
- In conclusion, central bank independence and accountability, clear communication and an explicit inflation target, and well-anchored inflation expectations have proven to be invaluable in ensuring price stability in the face of unexpected shocks and extreme uncertainty.
- Sharp turns and unpredictable terrain have been an unavoidable part of our journey, and we must accept that shocks and uncertainty will continue to define our future. I am confident that inflation targeting strategies will continue to serve us well against any challenges we may face ahead."
--> Full Speech : https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2025/wil251121
Research Calls I
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Upgrades
- Cognizant (CTSH) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at William Blair
- Cushman & Wakefield (CWK) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup, tgt $18
- Doximity (DOCS) upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James, tgt $65
- Experian (EXPGY) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup
- Helmerich & Payne (HP) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman, tgt $28
- Jack in the Box (JACK) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Northcoast
- Now Inc (DNOW) upgraded to Positive from Neutral at Susquehanna, tgt $16
- Prog Holdings (PRG) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at BTIG Research, tgt $31
- WillScot (WSC) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird, tgt $22
- Wynn Resorts (WYNN) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup, tgt $160
- Cognizant (CTSH) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at William Blair
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Downgrades
- AECOM (ACM) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird, tgt $143
- Atlas Energy (AESI) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman, tgt $8
- Bath & Body Works (BBWI) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $18
- Bath & Body Works (BBWI) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Telsey Advisory, tgt $17
- Bath & Body Works (BBWI) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman, tgt $17
- Bath & Body Works (BBWI) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird, tgt $19
- Hologic (HOLX) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at BNP Paribas Exane, tgt $79
- Jacobs (J) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird, tgt $146
- MGM Resorts (MGM) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup, tgt $35
- Palo Alto Networks (PANW) downgraded to Reduce from Hold at HSBC, tgt $157
- T-Mobile (TMUS) downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer
- AECOM (ACM) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird, tgt $143
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Others
- Acuren (TIC) initiated at Buy at Texas Capital, tgt $17
- AMD (AMD) assumed with an Outperform at Raymond James, tgt $377
- Arm Holdings (ARM) assumed with a Market Perform at Raymond James
- Astera Labs (ALAB) resumed with a Market Perform at Raymond James
- Boyd Gaming (BYD) initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup, tgt $86
- Broadcom (AVGO) resumed with an Outperform at Raymond James, tgt $420
- Caesars Entertainment (CZR) initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup, tgt $23
- Certara (CERT) initiated with a Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn, tgt $10
- Chord Energy (CHRD) initiated with an Outperform at William Blair
- Elanco (ELAN) initiated with an Overweight at KeyBanc, tgt $27
- Farmers National Banc (FMNB) assumed with a Neutral at Piper Sandler, tgt $14
- Greenbrier (GBX) initiated with a Sell at Goldman, tgt $38
- H.B. Fuller (FUL) initiated with a Neutral at UBS, tgt $60
- IBM (IBM) initiated with an Outperform at Oppenheimer, tgt $360
- Intel (INTC) resumed with a Market Perform at Raymond James
- Interparfums (IPAR) initiated with a Buy at Berenberg, tgt $103
- MapLight Therapeutics (MPLT) initiated with Buys at Jefferies, tgt $32
- MapLight Therapeutics (MPLT) initiated with a Buy at Stifel, tgt $28
- MapLight Therapeutics (MPLT) initiated with a Overweight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $34
- Marvell (MRVL) resumed with a Strong Buy at Raymond James, tgt $121
- Minerals Technologies (MTX) initiated with a Buy at Freedom Capital, tgt $75
- Mistras (MG) initiated with a Buy at Texas Capital, tgt $16
- Nvidia (NVDA) resumed with a Strong Buy at Raymond James, tgt $272
- Penn Entertainment (PENN) initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup, tgt $15
- Red Rock Resorts (RRR) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup, tgt $63
- SiTime (SITM) initiated with a Buy at Loop Capital, tgt $350
- Waystar (WAY) initiated with a Hold at Freedom Capital, tgt $40
- Workday (WDAY) initiated with a Market Perform at Raymond James
- Zeta Global (ZETA) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup, tgt $26
- Zoetis (ZTS) initiated with a Sector Weight at KeyBanc
- Acuren (TIC) initiated at Buy at Texas Capital, tgt $17