WWD : VF to Acquire Supreme, Valuing Brand at $2.1 Billion-plus

VF to Acquire Supreme, Valuing Brand at $2.1 Billion-plus
From collaborator to member of the family: the Street leader is joining the apparel giant, which owns Vans, The North Face, Timberland.

Supreme has found its new home at VF Corp. with a $2.1 billion deal guaranteed to reverberate through the tight knit streetwear community and on Wall Street.

The Denver giant said it signed a definitive merger agreement to buy the New York skate-based company, which sits at the white hot center of the streetwear world and saw its valuation more than double in three years.

Founder James Jebbia and the rest of Supreme’s leadership team will stay at the brand and remain based in New York City, where the company got its start as a skate shop on Lafayette Street.

VF said the business, which is understood to be wildly profitable, will be “accretive” to its adjusted earnings per share in the fiscal year that ends in April. Next year, the company is expected to add at least $500 million in revenues and 20 cents of adjusted eps to VF’s take.

Steve Rendle, VF’s chairman, president and chief executive officer, stressed in an interview with WWD that the closely watched street brand is going to stick to its knitting under VF’s ownership.

“This will take time,” Rendle said. “We talk about a light-touch integration with this business because it’s very successful, operating at a very high level today. We’ll take our time to get to know each other. This brand will continue to operate as it always has, we do not look to come in and make any changes. We’re here to help, support and enable.”

Jebbia added in a statement: “We are proud to join VF, a world-class company that is home to great brands we’ve worked with for years, including The North Face, Vans, and Timberland. This partnership will maintain our unique culture and independence, while allowing us to grow on the same path we’ve been on since 1994.”

The market has in a sense come around to Supreme’s way of seeing the world. As a direct-to-consumer based brand with a vibrant web business and very strong brand profile, it is what many companies are looking to transform into now with the pandemic reordering the landscape.

Just as VF can offer Supreme operational support, and international and data savvy, Supreme also has some tricks to teach VF.

Rendle pointed approvingly to the brand’s “approach to consumer engagement, their thoughtful focus on delivering quality product at a really consistently high rate and their deep understanding of what their customers are expecting.”

He also noted the deal fits squarely into the evolution of VF, which jettisoned its mass denim business, moved to Denver and has been focusing on the direct-to-consumer business and working to put the consumer at the center of all it does.

Supreme stays famously close to its consumer, a devoted following happy to line up in the rain to get the latest looks. Jebbia has built a monster brand that still has just 12 stores and its e-commerce site, which generates over 60 percent of its revenues.

By selling to VF, Jebbia and team join a company known for successfully bringing brands onboard without losing their DNA.

And as different as they are, VF and Supreme play in many of the same spaces.

“We have a good understanding of this customer,” Rendle said. “About $3 billion of our revenue is already derived from adjacencies to this marketplace, but Supreme sits at the center of this aspect of the market and we couldn’t be more excited to have them join us.”

Scott Roe, executive vice president and chief financial officer, said VF is buying 100 percent of Supreme and that, while the deal initially values the company at $2.1 billion, that number could rise with a potential earn out.

Roe described that as a “very fair price on both sides.”

It also shows considerable growth in the valuation at Supreme, which saw private equity giant buy a 50 percent stake at a $1 billion valuation in 2017.

VF is clearly buying Supreme for its brand profile and growth rate, not the potential for cost savings.

“We really don’t have synergies baked into this financial model,” Roe said. “That doesn’t mean there won’t be some. I’m sure there’s going to be points where we can help them, but it’s going to have to be brand appropriate and it’s going to have to be under the direction of the leadership and it has to make sense for the consumer and their business.

“We’re not coming in with a new plan or approach, because frankly they’re pretty darn good at it,” he said. “Supreme has done a masterful job in the COVID period and maintained that flexible connection with this consumer. When stores closed, their online business was robust and through the COVID period they’ve actually grown their business at a high-single digit rate year-to-date and even accelerated recently.”

VF said Supreme represents a “$1 billion global opportunity over time through international and direct-to-consumer expansion, core pillars of VF’s 2024 strategy,” according to VF.

The deal is expected to be completed this calendar year and will see Carlyle and Goode Partners sell their stakes.

VF will give additional details on the deal on a conference call with investors this morning

WSJ : Supreme Streetwear Brand Sold to VF in $2.1 Billion Deal

Supreme Streetwear Brand Sold to VF in $2.1 Billion Deal
Parent of Vans and Timberland is buying brand with cult following

Supreme, a streetwear brand with 12 stores and a cult following, is being sold to the parent company of Vans and Timberland in a deal that values the company at $2.1 billion.

Current investors Carlyle Group Inc. CG +3.69% and Goode Partners LLC are selling their stakes to VF Corp. VFC +17.12% , the apparel company said Monday.

Founded in 1994, Supreme is known for its apparel products displaying a red-and-white logo bearing its namesake. The seller of skateboarding T-shirts, hats and sweatshirts has tapped into the zeitgeist of teens seeking hard-to-get looks. Unlike traditional retail chains, which aim to sell as much as possible, the label has relied on product scarcity and word-of-mouth referrals to generate hype around its name.

In 2017, the company sold a roughly 50% stake to private-equity firm Carlyle Group for about $500 million, giving it a valuation of nearly $1 billion.

The Supreme brand could contribute at least $500 million in revenue and 20 cents a share in adjusted earnings in fiscal 2022, VF said. VF said it could pay more over time based on revenue growth and gross margin performance.

James Jebbia, Supreme’s founder, and Supreme’s senior leadership team will continue to manage the brand, VF said. Mr. Jebbia could receive a portion of the purchase price in VF equity over time, the company added. The deal is expected to close by the end of the year.

FT : Pfizer and BioNTech’s Covid vaccine found to be 90% effective

Pfizer and BioNTech’s Covid vaccine found to be 90% effective
Positive trial results could lead to shot being available for use by the end of the year

A Covid-19 vaccine being developed by Pfizer and Germany’s BioNTech has been found to be more than 90 per cent effective, in a breakthrough that could make the shot available for use by the end of the year if drug authorities give it the green light.

The finding was the result of the first independent analysis of any Covid-19 vaccine in phase 3 trials — the final stage before commercial licensing. Out of the 43,000 trial participants, the small number who were infected enabled the independent evaluators to calculate the effectiveness after two doses.

“To me, this is the best possible outcome,” Ugur Sahin, co-founder and chief executive of BioNTech told the Financial Times, while Pfizer boss Albert Bourla said it was “a great day for science and humanity”.

The drug is expected to be submitted to authorities for emergency approval in the third week of November, ahead of other vaccine developers. Former vaccine frontrunner Moderna does not expect to have the trial data required to go for approval until November 25, while AstraZeneca's partnership with the University of Oxford expects results by the end of this year. 

Pfizer shares jumped almost 15 per cent in pre-market trading in New York, while Nasdaq-listed BioNTech rose 25 per cent.

The Pfizer results far exceed the US Food and Drug Administration’s criteria for approving a Covid-19 vaccine, which mandates an efficacy of at least 50 per cent in placebo-controlled trials. No vaccine is 100 per cent effective, according to the World Health Organization.

Pfizer and BioNTech said that up to 50m doses of the vaccine — which would be the first vaccine to use novel mRNA technology — could be manufactured this year, and a further 1.3bn doses produced in 2021.

Global equity markets rallied sharply after Pfizer's announcement, led by travel and leisure companies that have been hit particularly hard by the coronavirus crisis. 

British Airways parent IAG soared by a third in London, while Air France KLM jumped 30 per cent in Paris and Ryanair climbed 16 per cent in Dublin. Oil prices, which have been knocked by the pandemic's effects on demand for fuel, also added to earlier gains. Brent crude, the international standard, was up 8.5 per cent at $42.83 in recent trading. 

The US has secured orders for 100m doses of the shot, with an option to acquire another 500m, while the UK has an agreement to procure 30m doses. A deal for the supply of 200m doses to the EU is under negotiation.

Mr Sahin said BioNTech and Pfizer would “use a fair approach” when it came to distributing the first doses of the vaccine, adding that they would prioritise deliveries to countries where it had been approved for use.

“This looks really good,” said Ian Jones, professor of virology at the University of Reading. “Of all the current vaccine currently in development the BioNTech product always looked like the most bang-per-buck as it is entirely focused on the part of the virus that binds to the human cell, the receptor binding domain.”

“The questions around its use were about the ability to manufacture at scale and the possible toxicity associated with a directly injected RNA product. The trial data show excellent results on both of those areas, really impressive protection and no reported adverse events,” he added.

Brendan Wren, professor of vaccinology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said 90 per cent efficacy was “excellent for a new vaccine”, while adding a note of caution. “It is a case of ‘so far so good’ but more confirmatory safety and efficacy studies are required.”

BioNTech’s Mr Sahin said he expected the vaccine’s immune response to last for “at least one year”, adding that the vaccine-induced antibodies were shown to block about 20 different mutations of Sars-Cov-2. “There's a very low likelihood that a [mutation of] the virus can overcome the immune response,” he predicted.

(Oscar Gruss - Makor) NAV-8TRA GR – OG Risk Arb Initial Deal View 11-9-20

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Head of North American Risk Arbitrage Research

Oscar Gruss & Son Incorporated

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>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:

  • HL -4.3%, CARS -2.4%

Other news:

  • BIIB -28.8% (provides update on FDA Advisory Committee's meeting on Aducanumab)
  • ZM -13.4% (trading lower with positive vaccine news)
  • VXX -7.7% (trading lower with S&P Futures up 4%)
  • CLX -4.2% (trading lower with positive vaccine news)
  • SQ -3.1% (announces $1.0 billion convertible notes offering)
  • SVM -1.1% (files $200 mln preliminary base shelf prospectus)

Analyst comments:

  • ELAN -2.6% (downgraded to Underweight from Overweight at Barclays)
  • RIGL -1.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:

  • ACB +22%, RETA +19%, CGC +8.9%, MIC +7.8%, EBIX +7.5%, ICPT +6.6%, BRK.B +5.5%, MCD +4.8%, BCOR +4.7%, PLUG +2.7%, TGNA +2.5%, GOGO +2.3%, ITCI +2.2%, RDNT +2%, ALE +2%, BKI +2%

Select ETFs showing strength:

  • XLE +11.8%, IWM +7.4%, XLI +7.3%, XLF +6.7%, DIA +5.4%, XLB +5.2%, SPY +4.3%, XLV +3.4%, XLK +1.2%, . 

Other news:

  • CALT +50.9% (reports topline results from pivotal Phase 3 NefIgArd trial met primary endpoint)
  • BNTX +23.4% (Pfizer and BioNTech announce vaccine candidate against COVID-19 achieved success in first interim analysis from Phase 3 study)
  • PFE +12.4% (Pfizer and BioNTech (BNTX) announce vaccine candidate against COVID-19 achieved success in first interim analysis from Phase 3 study)
  • FFIV +10.8% (announces $1 bln in total share repurchases across fiscal years 2021 and 2022 and intention to return 50% of free cash flow thereafter; details long term targets)
  • CNTG +7.3% (Centogene and Fujirebio Europe enter partnership to provide rapid and high-quality preventive SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Testing)
  • ARCO +5.5% (released letter with shareholder updates)
  • CMPS +4.9% (joins the Psychiatry Consortium in a collaboration to accelerate drug discovery in mental health care)
  • LMNL +4.1% (reports PDUFA date extended by FDA from March 5, 2021 to June 5)
  • GPRO +3.4% (D.E. Shaw increased passive stake to 5.0%)
  • GSK +2.9% (GlaxoSmithKline and Pfizer report their ViiV Healthcare investigational injectable cabotegravir is superior to oral standard of care for HIV prevention in women)
  • TSN +2% (Tyson Foods announced the European launch of its plant-based protein brand, Raised & Rooted) . 

Analyst comments:

  • FTI +15.5% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at HSBC Securities)
  • JWN +15.2% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Telsey Advisory Group)
  • RDS.A +11.2% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at HSBC Securities)
  • CAKE +11.1% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank)
  • LTHM +8.1% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup)
  • ARQT +6.8% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman)
  • TCS +5.1% (upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman)
  • YELP +4.9% (upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS)
  • RPRX +4.7% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS)
  • SNDR +4.1% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel)
  • VSTO +3.8% (upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc Capital Markets)