>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Rheinmetall (RHM TH) +2.5%
    • Kremlin Calls Russia-US Talks Constructive But No Deal Reached
  • Merck KGaA (MRK TH) +2.2%
    • Morgan Stanley Sees Overhangs Lifting in Pharma, Bayer Upgraded
  • Bayer (BAYN TH) +1.5%
  • Heidelberg Materials (HEI TH) +1.2%
  • E.On (EOAN TH) +1%
    • Utilities Sector a ‘Multi Theme Winner,’ Morgan Stanley Says
MDAX:
  • Fraport (FRA TH) +3.3%
    • Fraport Rated New Outperform at Mediobanca SpA; PT 84 euros
  • RENK Group (R3NK TH) +3.1%
  • Hensoldt (HAG TH) +2.1%
  • Puma (PUM TH) -1.2%
  • Hugo Boss (BOSS TH) -11%
    • Hugo Boss Reset May See Stock Under Pressure: Street Wrap
SDAX:
  • Wacker Neuson (WAC TH) -1.2%
    • Doosan Bobcat Jumps 10% on KRX on Wacker Neuson Acquisition Talk
  • Elmos Semiconductor (ELG TH) -2.4%
  • Salzgitter (SZG TH) -3%
    • Salzgitter Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT 27.90 euros

>>> What to look at today - 3rd of December 2025

Asian stocks traded within tight ranges on Wednesday, mirroring similar moves on Wall Street as investors remained cautious ahead of a slew of US economic data. MSCI Inc.’s gauge of regional shares was up 0.1% as Hong Kong-listed Chinese stocks underperformed. Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes rose 0.2% each after the US benchmark capped its sixth advance in seven trading days on Tuesday. Bitcoin extended its rebound after surging back above $91,000 in the previous session. In currency markets, India’s rupee fell past a key psychological level of 90 per dollar. The muted moves in equities highlighted that sentiment remains fragile ahead of this month’s rate decisions by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. The US is due to release ADP’s report on private sector employment for November as well as the import price index and industrial production data for September later on Wednesday. The long-delayed release of the September PCE index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — is due Friday. While the regional benchmark languished, shares of Asian tech and semiconductor firms tracked US peers higher as Marvell Technology Inc.’s post-earnings comments around data center revenue outlook added fresh optimism to the AI trade. Meanwhile, a gauge of Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong lost more than 1%. China’s services activity expanded at the weakest pace in five months in November, a private survey showed, adding more evidence of sluggish consumer demand. India’s rupee weakened as delays in finalizing a crucial trade deal with the US continue to hurt sentiment. The lack of forceful intervention by the central bank in recent weeks and foreign outflows from stocks contributed to the losses, according to analysts. Traders will now look to the Reserve Bank of India’s policy decision on Dec. 5 for comments from Governor Sanjay Malhotra on the currency. Elsewhere, silver rose to a record as traders laid speculative bets on continued supply tightness and lower borrowing costs in the US. Gold also gained. WTI crude was little changed as traders weighed the outlook for an end to the war in Ukraine following high-level talks between the US and Russia, while attacks on Moscow’s energy assets continued. As investors awaited the last few economic reports before next week’s Fed decision, President Donald Trump said he plans to announce his selection to lead the central bank in early 2026. Trump has pressured the Fed for months to lower interest rates, and naming a successor to Jerome Powell — whose term as Chair expires in May — would give the president his biggest chance yet to reshape the institution. The US central bank has rarely been so divided over its long-term plan for rates. After cutting them by more than a percentage point, Fed officials are now wondering where to stop – and finding there’s more disagreement than ever. In the past year or so, prescriptions for where rates should end up have diverged by the most since at least 2012, when US central bankers started publishing their estimates. That’s feeding into an unusually public split over whether to deliver another cut next week, and what comes after that. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1% on Wednesday, heading for a second day of declines. Ten-year treasury yields were steady. US After Hours MRVL +14.1%, AEO +10.4% higher on earnings; PSTG -11.3%, GTLB -8.4%, BOX -4.7%, OKTA -4.1%, CRWD -1% lower on earnings.

Nikkei +1.14% Hang Seng -1.31% CSI -0.54% Shanghai -0.53% Shenzen -0.91%

Eur$ 1.1607 CNH 7.0592 CNY 7.0642 JPY 155.67 GBP 1.3236 CHF 0.8019 RUB 77.3576 TRY 42.4679 WTI$ 58.73 +0.15% Gold 4,206 +0.03% BTC 93,455 +2.01% ETH 3,062 +2.15% SOL 142.71 +2.59%

S&P +0.22% Nasdaq +0.22% EuroStoxx +0.32% FTSE +0.03% Dax +0.17% SMI +0.15%

Macro :
- Kremlin Calls Russia-US Talks Constructive But No Deal Reached
- EU Finalizes Deal to Phase Out Russian Gas Imports by 2027
- EU Pushes for 70% of Critical Goods to be ‘Made in Europe’: FT
- Polish Grid Head Urges Pause to Costly Offshore Wind Energy Push
- Ex-Citadel, BlueCrest Trader Chris Wheeler Joins ExodusPoint
- WAYMO vs TESLA ROBOTAXI (WITH LIDAR + WAYMO INVESTMENT + IPO VALUATION)
- Prediction Market Kalshi Hits $11 Billion Valuation in New Funding Round - WSJ
- Lebanon Names Diplomat Simon Karam to Israel, US Truce Committee

Keep an eye on :
- ADYEN NA : Adyen Processed $43b Across Black Friday, Cyber Monday Weekend
- AIR FP : Airbus Cuts Delivery Target After Troubles With Most Popular Jet
- AMZN US : Amazon Rushes Out Latest AI Chip to Take On Nvidia, Google
- Anthropy IPO : Anthropic Taps Law Firm Wilson Sonsini to Begin Work on IPO: FT
- BALN SW : Baloise CFO Carsten Stolz to Leave the Company as of Dec. 31
- BMW GY : BMW CEO Presses EU to Ratify US Deal as Tariff Costs Ramp Up
- BA US : Boeing On Track to Generate Billions in Cash Next Year
- BA US : DAE in Long-Term Lease Pacts With AJet for Boeing 737-8 Aircraft
- COPN W : IP: COSMO Pharmaceuticals NV - Cosmo announces breakthrough Phase III Toplin...
- CRWV US : CrowdStrike Dips But Recurring Rev Seen Strong: Street Wrap
- DOV IM : DoValue Signs New Service Level Pact With Banco Santander
- ETL FP : SoftBank Group Capital to Sell ~36m Rights in Eutelsat: Terms, Eutelsat Rights Offer Priced at €0.33 Per Right: Terms
- GTLB US : Gitlab Shares Fall as 4Q Sales Forecast Trails at Midpoint
- HOT GY : Hochtief Has Agreed to Investment in Vulcan of €169M
- BOSS GY : Hugo Boss Targets Avg Annual FCF About EU300m From 2026 Onward, Hugo Boss Reset May See Stock Under Pressure
- IBE SM : Trump Makes Next Move to Revoke New England Wind Farm Permit
- ITX SM : Inditex 9M Ebit Beats Estimates, Zara Owner Inditex’s Sales Rise, Showing Retailer’s Resilience
- IDR SM : Indra Group Sells BPO Business to Teknei for €96.6 Million
- DEC FP : JCDecaux Wins Contract Renewal for Metro Station Advertising in Finland
- KER FP : Kering Board Approves €1.25/Shr Interim Div. for 2025 Finl Year
- MRVL US : Marvell Jumps as Data Center Revenue Seen Up More Than 25% --> +15%
- MRVL US : Marvell to Buy Celestial AI for at Least $3.25b in Cash, Stock
- NKE US : Nike Names Venkatesh Alagirisamy to New COO Role, Eliminates CTO
- NDX1 GY : Nordex Gets 118 MW Wind Turbine Order in Poland
- OSUN NO : Ocean Sun Offering of Shares Prices via Fearnley Securities
- PG US : P&G Warns of US Weakness in Some Consumer Goods Categories
- QUBE LN : Quantum Base to raise funds via placing and retail offer
- STLA US : France’s Symbio Venture May Slash 70% of Jobs, Les Echos Says
- SBRY LN : Sainsbury Holder Qatar Holding Offers Up to 83.6m Shares
- MSTR US : Strategy CEO Sees Reserve Used to Make Payments in Perpetuity
- TEMN SW : Temenos Names Interim CEO Takis Spiliopoulos as CEO
- VLTSA FP : ByteDance, Brookfield Courted by Voltalia for Brazil Data Parks
- WBD US : Comcast’s Bid Seeks to Merge NBCUniversal Unit With Warner Bros.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 3rd of December 2025

>>> Up
* Bayer Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 40 euros
* Berkeley Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 5,037 pence
* BW LPG Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 147 kroner
* Drax Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 850 pence
* Drax Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 900 pence
* EDP Renovaveis Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 13.50 euros
* E.On Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 18 euros
* Garmin Raised to Buy at Longbow
* Merck KGaA Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT 145 euros
* Novartis ADRs Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $136
* Solaria Energia Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* Stellantis Raised to Buy at UBS; PT 12 euros
* Tamtron Group Raised to Buy at Inderes; PT 6.40 euros
* Veolia Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 33 euros
* YouGov raised from Neutral to Overweigh at JPMorgan

>>> Down
* ADP Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 132 euros
* Barratt Redrow Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 447 pence
* Buzzi SpA Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 58 euros
* Enagas Cut to Sell at Citi; PT 13.10 euros
* Enel Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 8.60 euros
* Flughafen Wien Cut to Hold at Erste Group; PT 57.70 euros
* Fraport Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 83 euros
* Guerbet Cut to Underperform at Oddo BHF; PT 14 euros
* Holcim Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 82.90 Swiss francs
* Italgas Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 10 euros
* Michelin Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT 30 euros
* Pagegroup Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 215 pence
* Regeneron Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $767
* Renault Cut to Sell at UBS
* Salzgitter Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT 27.90 euros
* Trainline Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT 230 pence
* Travis Perkins Cut to Underperform at Jefferies; PT 535 pence
* Uniqa Cut to Hold at Erste Group; PT 16.30 euros
* Vinci Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 133 euros
* Whitbread Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 2,815 pence

>>> Initiation
* Airbus Rated New Equal-Weight at Oxcap; PT 190 euros
* Capri Holdings Reinstated Overweight at Barclays; PT $31
* Fraport Rated New Outperform at Mediobanca SpA; PT 84 euros
* Linde Rated New Outperform at CICC; PT $510
* Schott Pharma Rated New Sector Perform at RBC; PT 21.50 euros
* Ypsomed Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 345 Swiss francs

>>> Call
* Building Stocks to See Constrained Trajectory in 2026: Jefferies
* Utilities Sector a ‘Multi Theme Winner,’ Morgan Stanley Says
* Morgan Stanley Sees Overhangs Lifting in Pharma, Bayer Upgraded
* Fraport Raised, ADP, Vinci Cut at JPMorgan, Ferrovial a Top Pick

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Fraport (FRA TH) +2.7%
    • Fraport Raised, ADP, Vinci Cut at JPMorgan, Ferrovial a Top Pick
  • Rheinmetall (RHM TH) +2.6%
  • RENK Group (R3NK TH) +2.6%
  • Inditex (IXD1 TH) +2.2%
    • *INDITEX 9M EBIT EU5.94B, EST. EU5.81B
  • Leonardo (FMNB TH) +2.2%
  • Adyen (1N8 TH) +2.1%
  • ASML (ASME TH) +2%
  • Merck KGaA (MRK TH) +2%
    • Morgan Stanley Sees Overhangs Lifting in Pharma, Bayer Upgraded
  • Hensoldt (HAG TH) +1.9%
  • ASM Intl (AVS TH) +1.8%
  • Novo (NOV TH) -0.7%
  • Sartorius (SRT3 TH) -0.8%
    • Morgan Stanley Sees Overhangs Lifting in Pharma, Bayer Upgraded
  • Voestalpine (VAS TH) -0.9%
  • Michelin (MCHA TH) -1.1%
  • Vinci (SQU TH) -1.1%
  • Glencore (8GC TH) -1.1%
  • Puma (PUM TH) -1.3%
  • Enel (ENL TH) -1.7%
    • Utilities Sector a ‘Multi Theme Winner,’ Morgan Stanley Says
  • Buzzi SpA (UCM TH) -1.7%
  • Renault (RNL TH) -1.8%
    • UBS cuts stock to sell: APA

>>> WAYMO vs TESLA ROBOTAXI (WITH LIDAR + WAYMO INVESTMENT + IPO VALUATION)

WAYMO vs TESLA ROBOTAXI (WITH LIDAR + WAYMO INVESTMENT + IPO VALUATION)
Sector: Autonomous Mobility / AI Infrastructure / Semiconductors

1 — Executive Summary: Clear Lead for Waymo
Waymo is the only scaled, commercially deployed robotaxi operator in the U.S. with 100M+ driverless miles, multi-city operations, freeway autonomy, and statistically verified safety outperformance.
Tesla remains narrative-driven, with limited real deployments and regulatory dependencies.

Positioning:
Long Alphabet (Waymo optionality)
Long NVDA / IFX / AMBA (AV compute stack winners)
Long UBER (platform aggregator)
Trade TSLA tactically; avoid AV-fundamentals long exposure
High-beta LiDAR exposure via LAZR / INVZ / OUST / HSAI

2 — Strategic Comparison: Waymo vs Tesla vs Uber
Waymo — “Scale + Safety + Multi-Sensor Dominance”
  • Only operator with full autonomous ride-hailing fleets across the U.S.
  • Highway capabilities now live across SF, LA, Phoenix.
  • Plans to scale to 15 markets by 2026 (from 5).
  • 91% fewer serious-injury crashes vs human drivers.
  • Shift to “confidently assertive” driving improves throughput.
  • Uses LiDAR + radar + cameras + HD maps → regulatory-friendly.

My View: Real, defensible moat. Commercial traction visible. Upside not priced in Alphabet.

Tesla — “Vision-Only + Narrative Momentum”
  • Robotaxi operations limited to small Austin pilot, dozens of cars.
  • Heavy reliance on camera-only AI stack (no LiDAR, no radar).
  • Regulatory approvals remain unclear.
  • JPMorgan: Tesla announcements = volatility triggers, not fundamentals.
  • Autonomous miles not comparable to Waymo (not driverless).

My View: High optionality, high hype, but weak real fundamentals. Best traded, not owned, for the AV theme.

Uber — “AV Operating System”
  • Integrating 10+ AV partners by 2026 (Waymo, WeRide, Baidu).
  • 15% of mobility revenue = airport rides, a segment where Waymo is strong.
  • Low capex, high margin uplift as AV penetration rises.

My View: Sneaky winner → gains regardless of who provides the robotaxis.

3 — LiDAR: The Technical Divide (and Investment Angle)
Waymo’s Multi-Sensor Stack (LiDAR + radar + cameras)
  • Enables long-range depth detection, night accuracy, fog resilience.
  • Improves redundancy → basis for safety outperformance + regulatory trust.
  • Fundamental reason Waymo leads today in actual driverless deployments.
Tesla’s Vision-Only Stack
  • Fails in edge-case environments (glare, fog, cross-traffic).
  • Safer in theory only when paired with extremely robust neural nets (not proven).
  • Regulators show preference for multi-sensor redundancy → favors Waymo.

Public LiDAR Beneficiaries (High-Beta)
Company Ticker Why It Matters
Luminar LAZR Premium long-range LiDAR; OEM penetration (Volvo, MB, Nissan)
Innoviz INVZ BMW L3 supplier; automotive reliability
Ouster OUST Industrial + automotive; merged with Velodyne
Hesai HSAI China #1; supplies Baidu/WeRide robotaxis

My View: Best convexity to AV adoption. High volatility, strong newsflow sensitivity.

4 — Total Investment in Waymo & Implications for IPO Valuation
A) Alphabet’s Investment into Waymo (What We Know)
  • At least US$12B total funding into Waymo from Alphabet + third parties.
  • US$5.6B Series C in 2024 (largest ever for Waymo).
  • Analysts estimate Alphabet’s cumulative spend including R&D may reach ~US$30B.
  • Latest private valuation post-2024 fundraising: ~US$45B.

Interpretation:
Waymo is one of the largest private tech investments ever made.
Any IPO must clear a high capital hurdle — but offers major optionality.

B) IPO Valuation Scenarios
1 — Base Case (~US$45–60B)
  • Matches private markets.
  • Reflects operational scale + multi-city footprint.
  • Assumes modest profitability progress.
2 — Mid Case (~US$80–120B)
  • 10+ U.S. cities
  • Positive unit economics in airports & downtown cores
  • Regulatory tailwinds for AV fleets
3 — Bull Case (~US$200–400B)
  • Dominant U.S. robotaxi network
  • Strong ridership ramp
  • Begin international expansion
4 — Full-Moon Scenario (~US$350–850B)
  • Analysts’ upper bound
  • Global AV dominance + network effects + logistics/freight revenues
  • High AV utilization (50–70%) → Uber-like margins at massive scale

My View: Waymo is the only AV asset with a realistic path to >US$200B valuation.

5 — Market Impact & Trade Ideas
A) Core Positions
  • Long GOOGL (Waymo optionality + AI cash engine)
  • Long NVDA (all AV stacks → compute demand explodes)
  • Long IFX (automotive MCUs, power systems)
  • Long AMBA (vision processing for AV sensor fusion)

B) Platform Winner
  • Long UBER (AV distribution layer; capex-light winner)

C) Spec AV / LiDAR Convexity
  • LAZR / INVZ / OUST / HSAI (highest beta to robotaxi penetration)

D) Relative Value
  • Long GOOGL / Short TSLA
    Captures:
  • Real AV fundamentals (GOOGL)
  • Narrative-driven overvaluation (TSLA)
  • Mean reversion catalysts (regulation, performance gaps)

6 — Bottom Line
Waymo Is Quietly Building the Only Scaled Robotaxi Network in the U.S. — Tesla Is Still Selling the Story.
The investable trades converge to Alphabet, NVDA, IFX, AMBA, UBER — and selective LiDAR names for convexity.
Tesla AV should be treated as a volatility asset, not an AV fundamental play.

References (Alphabetical, As Requested)
(All facts below are pulled strictly from verifiable and publicly available sources.)
  • Axios – “Robotaxis are spreading across the U.S.”
  • arXiv – “Waymo Safety Performance Report: 56.7M rider-only miles”
  • Benzinga – “Tesla vs Waymo vs Uber: The Robotaxi Battle No One Can Afford to Lose”
  • Forbes – “Waymo Could Be a Trillion-Dollar Opportunity”
  • Fortune – “Waymo raises $5.6B, its largest round ever”
  • RoadtoAutonomy – “Alphabet’s total investment in Waymo”
  • Seeking Alpha – “Waymo valuation scenarios”
  • TechCrunch – “Waymo valued at $45B after Series C”
  • The Driverless Digest – “Waymo Stats 2025”
  • TSGInvest – “Waymo IPO considerations”
  • Wikipedia – Fleet sizes, robotaxi deployment data

If you want, I can produce:
📌 A 1-page Bloomberg PDF-style summary,
📌 A trade matrix (conviction vs catalysts), or
📌 A position sizing / risk management framework for these themes.

WSJ : Waymo’s Self-Driving Cars Are Suddenly Behaving Like New York Cabbies

Waymo’s Self-Driving Cars Are Suddenly Behaving Like New York Cabbies
Autonomous vehicles are adopting humanlike qualities, making illegal U-turns and flooring it the second the light goes green

SAN FRANCISCO, Calif.—It was like a scene out of a movie: a pair of white Jaguars zipping through a two-lane tunnel, changing lanes at the same time in a zigzag formation. But this one had a twist. They were both Waymos, the self-driving vehicles known for their achingly cautious behavior.

“I had never seen anyone switch lanes in that tunnel,” says Sophia Yen, a startup founder who was in her car behind the two autonomous ones this past September. “It’s driving more like a taxi driver—an aggressive, New York taxi driver.”

For years while training on the streets of San Francisco and eventually transporting passengers, Waymos were the most polite drivers on the road. Pull up to a stop sign at the same time as a Waymo and it would wait, as if to say, “No, please, after you.” If you were trying to go around another car making a left, a Waymo was sure to let you in. In short, they were drivers you wouldn’t want to get stuck behind while in a hurry.

The training wheels are off. Like the rule-following nice guy who’s tired of being taken advantage of, Waymos are putting their own needs first. They’re bending traffic laws, getting impatient with pedestrians and embracing the idea that when it comes to city driving, politeness doesn’t pay: It’s every car for itself.

In September, police in San Bruno, Calif., pulled over a Waymo after witnessing it make an illegal U-turn. Last month, a Waymo hit and killed a well-known neighborhood cat in the Mission district. On a recent Thursday in Pacific Heights, a Waymo at a multilane four-way stop hit the gas along with the car next to it so it wouldn’t have to wait its turn. Seconds later, the same car decided signaling a lane change wasn’t necessary.

Jennifer Jeffries, 54, has logged nearly 3,000 minutes in Waymos since May 2024. Until recently, the Pacific Heights resident wouldn’t take one if she was headed downtown. They weren’t agile enough. She once got stuck for several minutes behind another car that was double parked while furniture was being unloaded.

She now has no problem taking Waymos downtown and finds they maneuver as well as an Uber driver, maybe better.

“They will go around a car or get closer to a car than a human driver would,” says Jeffries. “Sometimes I’ll be in the back seat and I’ll be like, ‘Ooh that was really close.’”

One drawback: They seem to be mimicking Uber drivers in less-helpful ways: “You say pick me up at this address and they’re across the street, which I don’t appreciate,” she says.

Marc Schreiber, 49, liked it better when Waymos were strict followers of traffic laws. While walking to the gym, Schreiber found himself in a crosswalk opposite a Waymo. As soon as he’d made it past the front of the vehicle, it started accelerating.

“I was taken off guard,” says Schreiber. “My next thought was, oh they’ve changed the programming to be more aggressive.”

He was right.

Waymo has been trying to make its cars “confidently assertive,” says Chris Ludwick, a senior director of product management with Waymo, which is owned by Google parent Alphabet. “That was really necessary for us to actually scale this up in San Francisco, especially because of how busy it gets.”

Ludwick says when the vehicles are too passive, they become disruptive. Regular software updates ensure Waymos aren’t becoming a nuisance or creating chaos.

Ludwick wouldn’t comment on specific incidents of rulebreaking. He says Waymos make common-sense decisions, which involve trade-offs.

“The driver is designed to respect the rules of the road,” says Ludwick. “However, sometimes this is a nuanced topic and road rules can even conflict with each other.”

For example, he says, you’re not supposed to cross a double yellow line but you also shouldn’t obstruct traffic. So if you get stuck behind a stopped delivery truck, a human would go around it even if it meant crossing the double line. Now Waymos know to do that, too.

A Waymo spokeswoman says its vehicles have driven 100 million driverless miles across San Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin, Phoenix and Atlanta. The company reported that compared with human drivers, it has had 91% fewer crashes involving a serious injury or worse.

Cossette Drossler, 65, says a friend recently told her about a Waymo pulling a “California stop.” The car apparently slowed down but didn’t reduce its speed to zero at an intersection.

Drossler, who lives in Pacific Heights and owns an accounting services firm, feels conflicted on the evolving behavior. She doesn’t want to be behind a Waymo that’s coming to a complete stop in a quiet neighborhood when no one’s around. On the other hand, she doesn’t entirely trust them to appropriately judge the risk.

“I do California rolling stops. I grew up in San Francisco,” says Drossler, adding, “I only do it if it’s safe.”

Waymo says its cars are designed to come to a full stop

Police Sgt. Scott Smithmatungol, who was on patrol in San Bruno one September night, says he and his partner were looking for impaired drivers when they got to talking about Waymos and how they were starting to drive more like humans.

Just then, a Waymo opposite them in the intersection made a U-turn. The pair looked up, saw the no-U-turn sign and put their lights on. The Waymo pulled over. As Smithmatungol’s partner approached the driver’s side window, it rolled down. A Waymo operator’s voice came on through a speaker.

“They said they would look into it,” he says. “They were really, really apologetic.”
Currently, cops in California can’t cite a car without a driver.

>>> Vol Dispersion Report :

  • Biggest IV-RV spread premiums:
    • VW (YTD: +21.1%; RSI: 70); IV 25.5 vs RV 19 with vol dispersion of 9.4; IV in the 19th percentile
    • Mercedes (YTD: +19.6%; RSI: 62); IV 24.8 vs RV 19.4 with vol dispersion of 8.3; IV in the 12th percentile
    • Iberdrola (YTD: +41.9%; RSI: 61); IV 16 vs RV 11 with vol dispersion of 7.8; IV in the 66th percentile
    • BASF (YTD: +12%; RSI: 62); IV 25.3 vs RV 20.9 with vol dispersion of 7.3; IV in the 14th percentile
    • Sanofi (YTD: -4%; RSI: 48); IV 23.1 vs RV 19.3 with vol dispersion of 6.7; IV in the 47th percentile
  • Biggest IV-RV spread discounts:
    • Siemens Energy (YTD: +130.3%; RSI: 59); IV 39.2 vs RV 76.1 with vol dispersion of -33.9; IV in the 1st percentile
    • Bayer (YTD: +77.7%; RSI: 76); IV 35.9 vs RV 66.6 with vol dispersion of -27.9; IV in the 37th percentile
    • Siemens (YTD: +23.4%; RSI: 45); IV 22.7 vs RV 44.9 with vol dispersion of -19.3; IV in the 9th percentile
    • Deutsche Post (YTD: +39.2%; RSI: 65); IV 19.2 vs RV 37.5 with vol dispersion of -15.4; IV in the 4th percentile
    • Infineon (YTD: +15%; RSI: 58); IV 31.2 vs RV 47.2 with vol dispersion of -13; IV in the 10th percentile

FT : Brussels pushes for 70% of critical goods to be ‘made in Europe’

Brussels pushes for 70% of critical goods to be ‘made in Europe’
Policy would force EU companies to buy certain products domestically in an effort to cut reliance on China

Brussels is considering setting “made in Europe” targets of up to 70 per cent for the content of certain products such as cars, as it pushes to prioritise domestic goods and cut reliance on China.

The policy could cost EU companies more than €10bn annually by pushing them to buy more expensive European components, according to officials familiar with a draft law due to be presented on December 10.

The bloc’s French commissioner Stéphane Séjourné is overseeing the proposal, which marks a high point for years of French efforts to focus on domestic production as Europe’s ailing industry struggles to compete with cheap imports from Asia, particularly in clean technologies and some heavy industries.

An EU official said that the scope of the legislation would mirror China’s key industrial policies “Made in China 2025” and “China Standards 2035”, which pushed foreign companies towards joint ventures with Chinese businesses in order to access its market. “What we are trying to propose is a delicate balance between a much needed protection of our industry and openness, which is dear to Europe’s DNA,” the person said.

Previously sceptical countries such as Germany have indicated that because of the economic situation they would now look favourably on more buy-European rules, which are likely to affect the car industry and clean technologies, such as solar panels.

Three EU officials said that local content thresholds of up to 70 per cent were being discussed as part of the industrial policy plan but that the targets would vary, depending on how critical the sector was and how heavy the dependency was.

For cars, for example, government incentives would only be granted to vehicles that met the benchmarks. Batteries would also be required to have a certain level of European content, one official said. 

The measure would apply only to the use of public money, such as procurement contracts and state-backed loans and grants. There would also be an analysis of how much production capacity the EU had for each component, another official said.

The law, which is called the Industrial Accelerator Act, could yet be changed or even delayed, according to officials involved in the talks, amid divisions in the European Commission over the clauses. The French commissioner ideally wants the definition of “European” to be limited to the EU, one official said.

The commission’s powerful trade directorate is sceptical about local content thresholds, which are being pushed by Séjourné’s industrial policy department.

World Trade Organization rules generally forbid favouring domestic producers, though there are exemptions for security related reasons. 

Solar panel inverters, which have shutdown mechanisms that could prove to be a security risk, may have to be mostly European made under the new rules. “That’s when you need more domestic content,” one EU official said.

But some officials fear that products made in Europe could come with a significantly higher price tag than those imported from Asia, leading to even higher costs for companies. 

Since many imports are used to make finished goods in the EU such as cars, it could also price some products out of the market.

High energy prices and the pressure of Donald Trump’s tariff regime have led to EU companies becoming increasingly reliant on cheaply produced Chinese products. In 2024 China was the largest exporter of technologies such as solar panels and biofuels to the EU and the second largest for wind turbines.

European heavy industries, including steel, have also been struggling to maintain profit margins in the face of cheap Asian imports.

The commission’s proposal is expected to include provisions to mandate public bodies to buy European and efforts to incentivise lead markets for clean technologies. Officials are discussing a voluntary “green steel” label to encourage manufacturers to buy more of the bloc’s lower carbon but more expensive steel production. 

One EU official said that the 70 per cent figure would probably be reduced and that talks over local content rules were difficult.

The commission declined to comment on the proposal.

FT : The super-rich who move for tax, and then move again

The super-rich who move for tax, and then move again
Swiss referendum on inheritance tax showed how readily some would consider their options for relocation

The irony was almost perfect: super-rich people who fled from one country for Switzerland due to tax, threatened to leave Switzerland due to tax.

“I think many will move,” said Kjartan Aas, a Norwegian millionaire who now lives in Switzerland, ahead of a referendum to impose inheritance tax on the wealthiest. Tord Kolstad, another millionaire who left Norway due to the leftwing government’s tax policies, told Bloomberg: “Even though I’m very happy in Switzerland, I would have to reconsider if this goes through.”

In the end, the crisis was averted — nearly four-fifths of Swiss voting in the referendum rejected the initiative, dashing proponents’ hopes that a close result could spur similar proposals in the low-tax Alpine country in the years ahead.

But the worries of so many billionaires and millionaires — expressed publicly or privately — exposed a certain truth: if wealth preservation is the sole or main determinant of where you live, there is always a risk of an inconvenient law change causing you to move, and maybe move again.

Take the case of John Fredriksen. Born in Norway, Fredriksen is one of the main figures in the global shipping industry, with interests spanning everything from tankers and dry-bulk vessels to offshore oil services and fish farming.

He left Norway in 1978 for the UK, and later renounced his Norwegian citizenship for a Cypriot one. But earlier this year, as the UK’s Labour government abolished the so-called non-dom status and explored the possibility of a wealth tax, Fredriksen was off again, this time for the United Arab Emirates.

“It is beginning to remind me more and more of Norway. Great Britain has gone to hell, like Norway . . . The whole western world is on its way down,” Fredriksen told financial website E24. He even had the temerity to say, while in Norway: “I try to avoid Norway as much as I can.”

One issue is that many countries have generous allowances for how long people can spend there without becoming a tax resident.

Willy Michel, a Swiss pharmaceuticals billionaire, told the local newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung before the referendum that he and his wife would leave if the initiative were adopted. “We can still spend 180 days a year in Switzerland. We also have a residence in Mallorca, something in Piedmont, so even now we’re only here half the time,” he added.

Then there’s Lars Seier Christensen, the co-founder of Denmark’s Saxo Bank, a major shareholder in the football team FC Copenhagen and an investor in many of the Danish capital’s best restaurants, including Alchemist. He lives in Switzerland but can spend up to half of the year in his homeland — “that is more than enough”, he once told me jovially.

Faced with ageing populations and growing budget deficits, many countries are finding the rich a suitable target to try to balance the economic books. The end of non-dom status in the UK — under which UK residents who declared their permanent home as being overseas could avoid paying UK tax on foreign income and gains — led to a slew of the super-rich moving out.

Italy, which has attracted its fair share of the wealthy due to its flat-tax regime for foreign income, has announced it plans to increase the levy by 50 per cent to €300,000 per year from 2026. Michel had touted the current €200,000 figure as a potential attraction for him, compared to Switzerland.

That contrasts with other financial centres, especially in the Middle East and Asia, which are trying to win over the super-rich through tax concessions and light-touch regulation. Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Hong Kong and Singapore are all trying to attract wealthy family offices.

“For me, it’s a question of where you really want to live. If you would be happy in Dubai, then go for it, but for me it would be far too sterile. I’m happy with where I am, even if I’m not always happy with the tax and regulation in Europe,” one of Europe’s richest people told me a few years ago.

Aas has floated the idea of moving to Sweden from Switzerland due to its lack of inheritance tax and proximity to Norway — a turnaround from the 1970s when effective tax rates in Sweden occasionally went above 100 per cent of income and forced out entrepreneurs such as Ingvar Kamprad to the Alpine country.

Switzerland’s reputation as a reliable country for the wealthy may still be intact after the failed referendum. But the vote showed how ready some of the super-rich are to move again if tax laws threaten their wealth.

FT : Military aims to use AI to reshape the battlefield

Military aims to use AI to reshape the battlefield
Technology is accelerating the processing of information from multiple data streams and easing decision-making under pressure

In a darkened room in London’s Shoreditch district, a vast screen flickers to life displaying a map of the Baltic Sea. With a few keystrokes, maritime navigation data overlays the map, showing vessels in motion. Another command brings up the routes of undersea telecommunication cables.

Almost immediately one of the vessels, a Liberian-flagged ship heading towards the BCS East-West Interlink internet cable connecting Lithuania and Sweden, appears as a red icon.

Based on the vessel’s profile data, dominAI, the AI-powered software monitoring the fictional situation, has identified the ship as a potential threat. The operator can immediately dispatch a military drone or naval vessel to intercept. The system then runs simulations of each possible response, assigning probabilities of success to guide decision-making.

The scenario is a demonstration based on a real-world events: in November 2024, the East-West interlink was one of two submarine communications cables damaged within 24 hours by actors unknown. The authorities suspected sabotage.

DominAI is the brainchild of Hadean, a London-based former gaming company now positioning its software as the command and control solution needed by the UK military for the next generation of conflict.

Britain has earmarked £1bn to build a “digital targeting web” — an effort to use artificial intelligence to fuse data from multiple sources, both civilian and military, into a single command network. This would allow commanders to make faster, better-informed decisions about how quickly to escalate a response from mere surveillance to armed intervention against rapidly emerging threats.

“AI underpins the entire military architecture, it is or will be at the heart of the targeting process,” says Sir Richard Barrons, a former British army general, who is one of the authors of the UK’s 2025 Strategic Defence Review.

Fully autonomous intelligent machines on the battlefield remain years away, but AI is already accelerating how humans process information and make decisions under pressure. The US has already deployed an AI-powered command and control system. Maven, designed by data intelligence group Palantir, was reportedly used in combat during US air strikes in Yemen in 2024. Nato has since adopted variants of the software. 

The first challenge AI is trying to solve is moving data around a battlefield without cell towers, and defeating pervasive electronic jamming, says Will Blyth, co-founder and chief executive of Arondite, which has developed a smart system named Cobalt.

“A lot of innovation goes into minimising how much data needs to move.” Then AI models can process massive streams of imagery or sonar feeds, reducing dependence on tired human operators. “From there,” Blyth adds, “it’s about orchestration — reliably cueing the best available asset, whether a drone, a robot, or a human team — and doing it as quickly as possible.”

Speed, however, is only one part of the transformation promised by AI. The other is the military concept of mass — the idea that autonomous drones and robots can fill the numerical gaps in wars against larger foes.

Nato’s 4,300km eastern frontier with Russia has spurred new thinking in the alliance about how to use drones to make up for a lack of numbers. The war in Ukraine has already demonstrated a revolution in robotics, with cheap first-person-view (FPV) drones, controlled remotely by an operator, helping the country’s military counter larger Russian forces. Russian troops are similarly using drones.

The next step is autonomy — drones and ground robots that no longer need one-to-one human operators. The US Marine Corps in November posted a video of troops training with multiple quadcopter drones built by US-based Auterion, which run software that “applies real-time AI to allow soldiers to deploy swarms that operate as a single force”, according to the company.

“If you’re a four-person team covering 20km of front line in Ukraine,” says Dean Jones, co-founder of Gallos, “you can control only so much using FPVs and robotics. [So] there’s also going to have to be an element of autonomous response.” Ukraine recently approved the semi-autonomous tracked robot “Krampus” — an armed, unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) — for battlefield deployment.

Some degree of autonomy is also critical for navigation in the face of electronic warfare jamming that can cripple direct radio control by operators. ARX Robotics, a German start up, employs UGVs in Ukraine that can navigate following waypoints with collision avoidance if communications are not possible, says David Roberts, chief executive of ARX UK.

In the skies, the UK is investing roughly £2bn per year in the Global Combat Aircraft Programme, an “optionally crewed” sixth generation fighter to be built together with Japan and Italy by 2042. It is to work together with drones, or so-called “loyal wingmen”, already being developed to fly alongside crewed aircraft.

Beneath the waves, autonomous submarines, such as Anduril’s Ghost Shark, recently sold to Australia, and submarine-detecting undersea robots, such as the SG-1 Fathom by Helsing are fast becoming a reality.

These long-endurance drones, or “gliders”, move by altering their buoyancy and have existed for decades. But Helsing has fitted its system with an AI, called Lura, to classify acoustic signatures of ships and submarines.

Yet as autonomy spreads, ethical and legal questions deepen. Can a machine truly distinguish combatants from civilians — or grasp the moral weight of so-called collateral damage?

Jessica Dorsey of Utrecht University warns that “given that humans are ultimately responsible for ensuring compliance with international humanitarian law, preserving context-appropriate human judgment is critical.” She cautions that AI systems may compress complex moral and legal judgments into “algorithmic models”.

Likewise, when machines generate hundreds of potential targets per hour, operators risk falling into “automation bias” (trusting the system by default) or “action bias” (feeling compelled to act because the system demands it). As Dorsey notes, “the challenge is not simply whether algorithmic systems can help, but how they reshape the mental architecture and process of responsible command.”

How much judgment humans are willing to surrender to the algorithm may mean the difference between victory and defeat. However, this logic may ultimately present even greater danger.