Closing Stock Market SummaryThe S&P 500 advanced 2.0% on Friday in a resilient session that featured better-than-expected payrolls growth for February. The benchmark index was down as much as 1.0% intraday as investors sold into early strength, but others stepped in to buy the dip and propel the market to session highs by the close.
The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.6% after being down 2.6% intraday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.9% after being down 0.5% intraday, and the Russell 2000 gained 2.1% after being down 2.9% intraday.
The February employment report showcased nonfarm payrolls increase by 379,000 (Briefing.com consensus 200,000), which the market viewed as a bullish sign for future economic growth, as the labor market recovery appeared to pick up steam ahead of increased reopening/vaccination efforts. The unemployment rate was 6.2% (Briefing.com consensus 6.3%), versus 6.3% in January.
The 10-yr yield briefly matched last week's high of 1.61% following the data, before settling unchanged at 1.55%. Interestingly, the rise in yields didn't deter risk sentiment as every sector in the S&P 500 started the session in positive territory. Instead, the negative price action that followed fueled concerns that the recent correction in the heavily-weighted growth stocks wasn't over.
Nearly every sector turned negative, with the exceptions being energy (+3.9%) and consumer staples (+2.2%). Shares of Tesla (TSLA 597.95, -23.49, -3.8%) were down more than 13.0% at one point. Selling abated around the close of European markets at 11:30 a.m. ET amid a sense that selling had gotten overdone on a short-term basis.
Energy stocks built on their outperformance, as oil prices ($66.09, +2.26, +3.5%) rallied above $66 per barrel, and every other sector caught the wave of buying interest. The consumer discretionary sector (+0.7%) was the only sector that increased less than 1.0% due to Tesla's decline.
Note, while the S&P 500 never went below yesterday's intraday low, the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 did. The S&P 500 managed to close back above its 50-day moving average after closing below it on Thursday.
Shares of Cisco (CSCO 46.25, +1.69, +3.8%) and Oracle (ORCL 69.93, +4.32, +6.6%) outperformed following a pair of analyst upgrades. JP Morgan upgraded CSCO to Overweight from Neutral. Barclays upgraded ORCL to Overweight from Equal Weight.
The 2-yr yield increased one basis point to 0.15%. The U.S. Dollar Index advanced 0.4% to 91.96.
Reviewing Friday's economic data:
- The February Employment Situation Report was much better than expected on the payrolls front. The payrolls increase is the highlight of the report and is apt to be the lead headline when it comes to talking about the report; however, there is a soft underbelly to the report that should not go unnoticed. The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 61.4% (down from 63.3% a year ago), the U-6 unemployment rate is still high at 11.1%, and persons unemployed for 27 weeks or more accounted for 41.5% of the unemployed versus 39.5% in January. The pace of hiring might have picked up in February, yet the travails of the long-term unemployed did as well.
- The key takeaway from the report is that it will be seen as a sign of even better things to come for the labor market, which bodes well for growth prospects. The increase in nonfarm payrolls was the strongest since October and the best pace for February in more than 20 years, which is encouraging in that it came in front of more states seemingly destined to relax Covid restrictions in coming months as vaccination rates improve.
- The January trade deficit widened to -$68.2 billion (consensus -$67.5 billion) from a downwardly revised -$67.0 billion (from -$66.6 billion) in December. The widening in the deficit was a byproduct of exports increasing less than imports.
- The key takeaway from the report is that trade activity will be imputed as a drag on Q1 GDP growth for now as the real trade deficit in January was 2.4% more than the fourth quarter average.
- Consumer credit decreased by $1.3 bln in January after increasing a downwardly revised $8.8 bln (from $9.7 bln) in December.
- The key takeaway from the report is that revolving credit decreased for the tenth time over the last 11 months dating back to February, which preceded the initial pandemic lockdown period taking hold in the U.S.
Looking ahead, investors will receive Wholesale Inventories for January on Monday.
- Russell 2000 +11.0% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average +2.9% YTD
- S&P 500 +2.3% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite +0.3% YTD