Closing Stock Market SummaryThe S&P 500 (+0.1%) eked out a closing record high on Friday, coming back from an early 0.6% decline as it gradually absorbed another sharp rise in long-term interest rates. The 10-yr yield rose 11 basis points to 1.64% to reach its highest level since last February.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.9%) and Russell 2000 (+0.6%) set intraday and closing record highs, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.6% amid relative weakness in the mega-cap/growth stocks. To the Nasdaq's credit, it was down as much as 1.8% intraday due to the initial shock of higher rates.
The sharp rise in yields was driven by widely-reported expectations for economic growth and inflation. These expectations were supported by President Biden's instruction that all states make all adults eligible to be vaccinated no later than May 1 and by pipeline inflation pressures that were evident in the February Producer Price Index report.
Some circles attributed the rise in yields to a more subtle factor: selling by primary dealers anticipating that the Fed isn't going to extend the supplementary leverage ratio exemption when it expires March 31. This exemption was introduced last April amid the economic meltdown brought on by the pandemic.
Whatever the case, the higher rates worked against the mega-cap stocks within the S&P 500 information technology (-0.7%), communication services (-0.9%), and consumer discretionary (+0.1%) sectors. The latter sneaked into positive territory into the close amid a familiar resiliency in the broad market.
The financials sector (+1.1%) was a direct beneficiary of the curve-steepening activity in Treasuries, although the top spots belonged to the real estate (+1.5%), industrials (+1.3%), and utilities (+1.3%) sectors.
Boeing (BA 269.19, +17.19, +6.8%) was an influential driver within the industrials sector on news that 777 Investment Partners ordered 24 737 MAX planes. BA shares rose 7% to fresh 52-week highs.
The 2-yr yield increased one basis point to 0.14%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.2% to 91.63. WTI crude futures rose 0.7%, or $0.43, to $65.59/bbl.
Reviewing Friday's economic data:
- The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.5% m/m in February, as expected, following a 1.3% increase in January. In turn, the Producer Price Index for final demand, less foods and energy, rose 0.2% m/m, as expected, following a 1.2% increase in January. On a year-over-year basis, the Producer Price Index for final demand was up 2.8%, versus 1.7% in January. The Producer Price Index for final demand, less foods and energy, was up 2.5% versus 2.0% in January.
- There are a few important takeaways from this report: (1) there were no surprises in the headline numbers, so the stock market could choose to turn a blind eye to it, but (2) there was a sightline to pipeline inflation pressures, as the index for processed goods for intermediate demand rose 2.7% m/m (up 6.6% yr/yr), the largest monthly increase since July 2008, while the index for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand increased 4.3% (up 19.0% yr/yr).
- The preliminary University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for March increased to 83.0 (consensus 80.0) from the final reading of 76.8 for February. The March reading is the highest since August 2020.
- The key takeaway from the report is that the improvement was driven by gains across all socioeconomic subgroups and stemmed from optimism about the increasing number of vaccinations and the passage of the $1.9 trillion stimulus package.
Looking ahead, investors will receive the Empire State Manufacturing Survey for March and Net Long-Term TIC Flows for January on Monday.
- Russell 2000 +19.1% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average +7.1% YTD
- S&P 500 +5.0% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite +3.4% YTD
- VW (VOW3 TH) +0.6%
- Infineon (IFX TH) +0.4%
- Carmakers’ Chip Shortages May Last into Late 2021, Renesas Says
- Deutsche Bank (DBK TH) -0.6%
- Deutsche Bank Sees 2021 Revenue ‘Marginally’ Lower Than 2020
- BMW (BMW TH) -0.6%
- BMW Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 83 euros
- Daimler (DAI TH) -1.7%
- Renault Sells Entire 1.54% Daimler Stake at EU69.50 Per Share
- HelloFresh (HFG TH) +1.1%
- Varta (VAR1 TH) +1.1%
- Freenet (FNTN TH) +1.1%
- LEG Immobilien (LEG TH) +1.1%
- Hugo Boss (BOSS TH) -1.3%
- Burberry Says Rebound Has Been Stronger Than Analysts Expected
- LPKF (LPK TH) +3.5%
- LPKF Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 33 euros
- VERBIO Vereinigte (VBK TH) +3%
- Global Fashion Group (GFG TH) +1.1%
- Bilfinger (GBF TH) -0.8%
- 1&1 Drillisch (DRI TH) -1%
Macro :
- London Jobs Market Lags Rest of U.K. With 15% Drop in New Roles
Keep an eye on :
- AZN LN : Mexico to Continue Use of AstraZeneca Vaccine, Lopez-Gatell Says
* LPKF Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 33 euros
>>> Down
* Inditex Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 31 euros
* Renault Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 35 euros
>>> Initiation
* SOITEC Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 180 euros
>>> Call
* Inditex Cut at Jefferies as Margin Outlook Not Quite Good Enough