>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 31st of March 2021

>>> Up
* IAG Raised to Add at AlphaValue
* Eni Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 12.30 euros
* Hikma Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 2,870 pence
* Kuehne + Nagel Raised to Hold at Deutsche Bank
* Tecan Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 455 Swiss francs
* Transgene Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 4.50 euros

>>> Down
* BP Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 285 pence
* Total Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 44 euros

>>> Initiation
* Aedifica Reinstated Outperform at Exane; PT 110 euros
* Cofinimmo Reinstated Neutral at Exane; PT 115 euros
* Media & Games Invest Rated New Buy at Pareto Securities
* Midwich Rated New Buy at Panmure Gordon; PT 530 pence
* Vantage Towers Rated New Buy at Insight Investment Research
* Zoom Video Rated New Sell at Daiwa; PT $250

>>> Call
* Hikma Product Catalysts Not Fully Reflected in Shares: Jefferies
* Kingspan PT to Street-High With Sentiment to Improve: Berenberg
* Morgan Stanley Trims European Pro-Cyclical Tilt, Upgrades Pharma
* Morgan Stanley Double-Upgrades Eni to Overweight, Cuts BP, Total
* Tecan Has Further Growth Ahead, Upgrade to Buy: Berenberg

FT : Capstone chief surfs the highs and lows of market volatility waves

Capstone chief surfs the highs and lows of market volatility waves
Paul Britton had dreamt of being a trader but he needed a thick skin to survive the Liffe pit

Few people know more about market volatility than Paul Britton.

The founder of New York-based Capstone Investment Advisors, one of the world’s biggest hedge funds specialising in volatility and derivatives trading, has experienced the highs and lows of betting on market choppiness during a career of more than 25 years.

The former floor trader profited handsomely from the late 1990s volatility of the Asian and Russian crises. In the financial crisis he initially made a “shit-tonne” of money before later losses left him “begging for forgiveness” in Wall Street’s Trinity Church. But he profited again in last year’s coronavirus crisis, buying up cheap options from investors unloading their positions, and from the wacky stock volatility of this year’s GameStop saga.

In the process, he has built an $8.9bn-in-assets hedge fund business with a 14-year record of beating global stocks and the hedge fund industry average, from trading inefficiencies in the pricing of derivatives on stocks, bonds and other assets. Its success has allowed Capstone to back philanthropic projects, including a black interns programme.

We chat over several video calls. Britton, tall and with swept-back blond hair and a self-deprecating humour, appears first from his home in rural Connecticut, whose rolling hills remind him of the English countryside. Subsequent appearances are from a near-deserted Capstone office in Manhattan, where he sits against a perplexing background of blue and white squares that he explains are part of the firm’s branding.

Born in Epsom, Surrey, Britton grew up in a single-parent household. He admits to having “always dreamt of being a trader”, inspired in part by his grandfather, a fruit and vegetable trader whom he would accompany on pre-dawn trips to the wholesale market in west London.

In 1994 he started work for Vincent Viola’s Saratoga, wearing the yellow jacket of a trainee trader on the floor of the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange.

“Immediately, going up the escalators on Cannon Street and opening the huge doors to 3,500 people screaming and yelling at each other, I realised I was home,” he said.

Graduating to a green jacket, he moved to the notorious Italian government bond options pit, run by a small and close-knit group of traders where he quickly had to grow a thick skin. 

On his first day Britton was informed by a rival trader that he need not do anything and the other traders would make sure he got a share of the trades going through the pit. After several days of waiting around, and with no trades to show, Britton calmly told his boss about the arrangement.

“You’re more stupid than I thought you were,” replied his boss, adding that if Britton did not complete five trades the next day he could leave the firm.

When Britton tried to compete for one of the trades the next day, a rival trader told him that “if you open your mouth it’ll be the worst thing you do”. Pressing on regardless he bagged eight trades, but suffered “extraordinary” abuse that left him broken by the evening and lasted for months.

“I’d never heard of these words being thrown at me before,” he said. “People would follow me out of the building. You’d always be threatened.”

But he adds: “The pit played an incredible role in building up resistance. It was my moment of thinking, ‘Am I going to be able to survive?’”

After three years on the Liffe floor, Britton opened an office in Amsterdam, where they introduced the hand signals from Liffe, giving them a speed advantage that “would drive the older Dutch traders bananas”.

It also provided a step-change in his career. During the volatile years of 1997 to 1999, Amsterdam proved to be “a gold mine” that meant he could be part of a management team that bought Saratoga and changed the name to Mako.

After a year Britton became CEO of the US business, arriving in New York shortly before the 9/11 attacks. The experience of being in the nearby Nymex building when the planes hit the twin towers and then seeing a city rebuild itself was behind his decision to take a long lease for Capstone in the new complex, at 7 World Trade Center.

He launched Capstone in 2004, originally as a proprietary trading firm using large amounts of leverage, before opening to outside capital in 2007.

When the financial crisis began to ripple through markets, Capstone was well-positioned, making strong returns in a volatile January 2008. Cash from investors poured in.

Britton believed he had found a ceiling for the Vix, the market’s so-called fear gauge of volatility, which even during market shocks such as the Asian crisis or dotcom bust had rarely strayed much above 40. 

As volatility rose again to about 40 during that September’s bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, Capstone began betting the Vix would fall back. Instead, it rose above 80. Capstone had to buy back its exposure at 65.

“We got clobbered,” he admits. “We didn’t respect the markets enough, we didn’t have the humility.”

As the losses mounted, Britton, who is not “a religious person”, found himself walking to Trinity Church on the corner of Wall Street and Broadway to find respite from the office.

“You’re overheating in every aspect,” he said. “[But] it was so cool in there.

“I literally begged for forgiveness,” he said. “I was thinking about how am I going to get out of this.”

Capstone’s assets shrank by several hundred million dollars. But the firm survived, helped by an investment from a big European client.

Despite these bumps, Capstone’s has made an annual return of 7 per cent since 2007, according to a person who had seen the numbers. That included a 20 per cent gain last year, when Capstone — spotting that investors who had amassed options positions in Asia were being hit as coronavirus proved less economically damaging there than in the West — stepped in and bought these positions on the cheap.

GameStop, where options were implying “higher volatility than I’ve ever experienced”, proved another moneymaking opportunity.

In an age of increasing pressure on financial firms to demonstrate not just the economic but also the positive social and environmental positive impact they are having, Capstone has also been instrumental in two recent initiatives.

Capstone president Jonathan Sorrell is a co-founder of #100blackinterns, which has made 365 offers of internships at investment management firms to young black people, and #10000blackinterns, which starts next summer and will include a wide range of sectors. Capstone provides the financial support for the programme.

“This is an opportunity to fix the gross underrepresentation of the black community in the financial industry,” said Britton, who encouraged Sorrell to expand the initial programme following its success.

“I think we stand a chance of making a genuine difference to this community.”

FT : Galactic battle over Musk’s Starlink is a concern for space community

Galactic battle over Musk’s Starlink is a concern for space community
Rush to launch satellites threatens to crowd areas in low orbit to Earth

Elon Musk has been tantalising investors with the prospect of an initial public offering of his satellite internet constellation, Starlink, but only “when revenue growth is smooth and predictable”.

The tweets by the maverick tech entrepreneur have some market punters excitedly calculating valuations in the tens of billions or more for Starlink, a service that is not yet complete and a business model that is far from proven.

But having launched 60 Starlink satellites last week with his rocket company SpaceX, Musk can boast that in 22 months his constellation has put almost as many small satellites into “low Earth orbit” as were launched globally in the decade to 2018. 

And, yet, not everything is running as smoothly as Starlink’s prospective investors might hope. 

Behind the scenes, a battle is raging that has pitched Musk against rival tech billionaire Jeff Bezos — as well as swaths of the satellite industry. Like Musk, these players are hoping to exploit LEO to deliver high-speed, low-latency internet access as the world becomes more connected. 

The battle is ostensibly over whether Musk merely wants to “tweak” his existing operating licence or radically reshape his constellation by flying more satellites closer to the Earth. Here, they will be pulled into the planet’s atmosphere and vaporised at the end of their life instead of becoming space junk, argues Musk. 

But in asking to relocate 2,800 more satellites from around orbits of 1200km above earth to 550 kms, Starlink is approaching Bezos’s own planned constellation at about 600 kms. Bezos and others such as ViaSat argue that Starlink’s presence at 550 kms could affect their own internet services, while also increasing the risks of collision and of space debris. 

Musk’s rivals might just want to slow him down. Launched in May 2019, Starlink now has 1,320 satellites in orbit and is adding roughly 120 a month. Ultimately, Starlink aims to have some 12,000.

But in a few weeks, Musk will reach his licence limit of 1,584 satellites in the lower orbit. If the US Federal Communications Commission refuses a requested modification to the limit, Starlink will have to get in the queue behind rivals to apply for a new licence. 

This is a debate that should attract wider attention from other spacefaring nations. The pace of Starlink’s expansion could make it more difficult to reach much-needed international agreement on standards that should be applied to a new wave of constellations. 

A study by the University of Bologna found more than 90 companies or agencies planned constellations, most in LEO. After Starlink comes Amazon’s Project Kuiper with 3,200 satellites, Britain’s OneWeb with about 700 and Telesat of Canada with 298. The EU, too, is talking about its own constellation while China is planning multiple systems.

Low earth orbit, defined as between 150 kms and 2,000 kms altitude, is getting crowded. But there are still no international norms on acceptable satellite failure rates or how to protect the integrity of astronomical research from distortion caused by thousands of spacecraft.

Nor is there international accord on how to enforce best practice. And, most concerning, there are no international space laws on cleaning up the debris left behind by this new wave of spacecraft.

Individual nation states have tried to address these issues. But fragmented approaches encourage operators to go to the loosest regimes. The FCC proposed new rules more than a year ago but those have been delayed by corporate objections over cost. Neither companies nor nations appear ready to compromise on agreed standards. 

In the US, there may be an incentive to see domestic giants such as Starlink and Amazon safely installed before holding conversations on new norms, say some. China and Russia will also want stake out their own space real estate. 

Meanwhile, new entrants are lining up. Over the next decade, Euroconsult expects some 10,100 small satellites to be launched into LEO, more than five times that in the previous decade. 

The problem is not yet acute as space is a big place. But, with every launch, the question of how to regulate space becomes more urgent. 

For decades the world ignored calls for action on climate change. It would be tragic that just as nations begin to recognise the need to protect the Earth, they fail to collaborate on the preservation of space. Businesses such as Starlink intend to operate for many decades. If space is not sustainable, neither are their business models.

>>> US After Hours Summary: CHWY +9.2%, CLF +8% jumps on earnings/guidance; BB -

After Hours Summary: CHWY +9.2%, CLF +8% jumps on earnings/guidance; BB -7%, LULU -1.6% fall on earnings; RMO -13.1% falls on sharply lower guidance

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: HYFM +10.1%, CHWY +9.2%, CLF +8% (guides Q1 and FY21 adjusted EBITDA above consensus), APR +4.5%, PVH +2.7%, IGMS +2.6%, PRCH +0.7%, PHR +0.2%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: SURF +16.6% (FDA grants Orphan Drug Designation for SRF617 for pancreatic cancer), EQ +10.7% (announces top-line data from Type A group of EQUALISE study), SLCA +3.4% (to increase prices on industrial and specialty products), BE +1.7% (begins deployment of solid oxide fuel cells portfolio in the Northeast), PGEN +1% (CFO departs), CLNY +0.3% (names new Chairperson of the Board), BA +0.2% (ALK discloses amendment to aircraft purchase agreement with BA), BOMN +0.2% (stock offering and a mixed shelf offering), IMAX +0.1% (chairman departs), LMT +0.1% (Sikorsky Aircraft awarded $280 mln Army contract), ALK +0.1% (ALK discloses amendment to aircraft purchase agreement with BA)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: RMO -13.1% (expects 2021 revs to be materially lower than projected due to shortage of battery cells), BB -7%, AVIR -2.1%, LULU -1.6%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: KDNY -4.1% (announces upcoming data presentations), PRQR -3.5% (stock offering), NCTY -3.4% (files for $1 bln mixed securities shelf offering), MARA -0.7% (to launch bitcoin mining pool based in North America), QCOM -0.2% (stock offering), AMGN -0.1% (to acquire Rodeo Therapeutics)

>>> US Close Dow -0.31% S&P -0.32% Nasdaq -0.11% Russell +1.72%

Closing Stock Market Summary

The S&P 500 (-0.3%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.1%), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.3%) closed slightly lower on Tuesday in a relatively lackluster session. The Russell 2000 rose 1.7% to bounce back from yesterday's 3% drop. 

There was a semblance of the so-called reflation/reopening trade, as many small-cap/cyclical stocks outperformed and long-term interest rates briefly moved higher. Recovery optimism was supported by a nice jump in the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, which rose to 109.7 in March (Briefing.com consensus 97.0) from 90.4 in February.

The consumer discretionary (+0.8%), financials (+0.7%), and industrials (+0.4%) sectors closed higher. but the other eight S&P 500 sectors closed lower. The defensive-oriented information technology (-1.0%), consumer staples (-1.1%), utilities (-0.9%), and health care (-0.9%) sectors underperformed with 1% declines.  

The higher rates benefited the financials sector, but they did come down from session highs, which may have helped the Nasdaq pare its 1.1% intraday decline. The 10-yr yield settled one basis point higher at 1.73% after nearly touching 1.78% prior to the open. 

Interestingly, the Nasdaq (-0.1%) fared much better than the information technology sector (-1.0%) today. Part of that had to do with a strong showing in Tesla (TSLA 635.62, +24.33, +4.0%) and Baidu (BIDU 218.23, +13.53, +6.6%). 

In corporate news, shares of Broadcom (AVGO 456.16, -16.46, -3.5%) fell 3.5% after The Information reported that Amazon (AMZN 3055.29, -20.44, -0.7%) is developing its own networking chips. Illumina (ILMN 368.96, -26.04, -6.6%) fell 6.6% after the FTC challenged the company's proposed acquisition of cancer detection test maker Grail. 

Separately, Wells Fargo (WFC 39.39, +0.95, +2.5%) said it did not experience losses related to closing out its exposure to Archegos Capital Management. 

The 2-yr yield was unchanged at 0.14%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.4% to 93.28. WTI crude futures fell 1.6%, or $0.98, to $60.57/bbl. 

Reviewing Tuesday's economic data:

  • The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index jumped to 109.7 in March (consensus 97.0) from a downwardly revised 90.4 (from 91.3) in February.
    • The key takeaway from the report is that the series reached its highest level in a year on improved expectations for a further recovery.
  • The FHFA Housing Price Index increased 1.0% m/m in January following an upwardly revised 1.2% increase in December (from 1.1%).
  • The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index increased 11.1% y/yr in January (consensus 11.0%) following an upwardly revised 10.2% increase in December (from 10.1%).

Looking ahead, investors will receive the ADP Employment Change Report for March, the Chicago PMI for March, Pending Home Sales for February, and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index on Wednesday.

  • Russell 2000 +11.2% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +8.0% YTD
  • S&P 500 +5.4% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite +1.2% YTD