Closing Stock Market SummaryThe S&P 500 declined 0.7% on Friday, finishing the week little changed, as the market was unable to key off another round of great economic and earnings news. The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.9%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.5%. The Russell 2000 lagged with a 1.3% decline.
Briefly, Amazon (AMZN 3467.42, -3.89, -0.1%) posted strong Q1 results and issued upbeat Q2 revenue guidance, and personal income surged 21.1% m/m in March (Briefing.com consensus 20.5%) due to the government stimulus checks. The PCE Price Index, which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, was up 2.3% yr/yr in March while the core reading was only up 1.8% yr/yr.
The market wasn't impressed, but if it was, it didn't show it: AMZN shares closed lower, and seven of the 11 S&P 500 sectors closed lower. The information technology (-1.4%) and energy (-2.7%) sectors struggled at the bottom of the sector standings, with the latter pressured by weakness in Chevron (CVX 103.03, -3.87, -3.6%) despite beating EPS estimates.
Twitter (TWTR 55.22, -9.87, -15.2%) was another disappointment, as shares dropped 15% following its underwhelming earnings report.
Conversely, the consumer discretionary sector (+0.3%), where Amazon and Tesla (TSLA 709.44, +32.44, +4.8%) reside, joined the defensive-oriented utilities (+0.8%), real estate (+0.6%), and consumer staples (+0.04%) sectors in positive territory.
The relatively disappointing price action fed into the "peak growth" narrative, which says the market will find it harder to keep rallying when growth rates for the economy and earnings might not be as fast as they did coming out of the pandemic. Many expect economic growth rates to moderate in the second half of this year.
From a broader viewpoint, today was part of a two-week consolidation trend following a five-week stretch in which the S&P 500 gained roughly 8% leading into earnings season. Thus, with the peak growth narrative and sideways activity in mind, investors presumably felt uneasy about buying in front of a potential pullback.
U.S. Treasuries finished little changed, albeit with some defensive undertones in the longer-end of the curve. The 2-yr yield was unchanged at 0.16%, and the 10-yr yield decreased one basis point to 1.63%. The U.S. Dollar Index advanced 0.7% to 91.27. WTI crude futures fell 2.4%, or $1.52, to $63.51/bbl.
Reviewing Friday's economic data:
- Personal income surged 21.1% month-over-month in March (consensus 20.5%) and personal spending rose 4.2% (consensus 4.0%). The PCE Price Index jumped 0.5%, as expected, leaving it up 2.3% year-over-year, while the core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.4% (consensus 0.3%), leaving it up 1.8% year-over-year.
- The key takeaway from the report is the influence of the personal current transfer receipts. They were massive, but they will be lessening big time in coming months, which allows for some consternation pertaining to the peak growth narrative.
- The final April reading for the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment increased to 88.3 (consensus 87.0) from the preliminary reading of 84.9. The final reading for March was 84.9.
- The key takeaway from the report is the finding that an all-time record number of consumers expect the unemployment rate to decline in the year ahead, which is an important view as it relates to spending potential.
- The Q1 Employment Cost Index increased 0.9% ( consensus 0.7%), seasonally adjusted, for the three-month period ending in March 2021 after increasing 0.7% for the three-month period ending December 2020. Wages and salaries, which account for about 70% of compensation costs, rose 1.0%, while benefit costs, which make up the remainder of compensation costs, increased 0.6%.
- The key takeaway from the report is that wages and salaries for civilian workers, private industry workers, and state and local government workers were down from the same period a year ago, which is a basis for why the Fed intends to remain patient with its policy stance.
- The Chicago PMI increased to 72.1 in April (consensus 62.0) from 66.3 in March.
Looking ahead, investors will receive the ISM Manufacturing Index for April, Construction Spending for March, and the final IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI for April on Monday.
- Russell 2000 +14.8% YTD
- S&P 500 +11.3% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average +10.7% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite +8.3% YTD
Hybrides rechargeables : l’État veut nous dicter notre conduite
Quitte à subventionner l’achat des voitures hybrides rechargeables, l’État aimerait s’assurer qu'elles circulent le plus souvent possible en mode électrique. D’où cet amendement à la loi Climat qui oblige les entreprises à former leurs salariés à la bonne conduite de ces autos.
Après les moteurs Diesel truqués, le prochain scandale à éclabousser l’industrie automobile sera-t-il celui des hybrides rechargeables, qui consomment bien plus de carburant qu’annoncé ? C’est ce que redoutent bon nombre d’acteurs du secteur, qu’ils soient constructeurs et équipementiers, ou bien distributeurs et gestionnaires de flottes de véhicules d’entreprise.
Bien sûr, tous se réjouissent de l’envolée des ventes de voitures hybrides rechargeables (+ 175 % en Europe sur les trois premiers mois de l’année, selon ACEA) : elles constituent un moyen commode d’échapper aux amendes de Bruxelles sur les émissions de gaz à effet de serre, tout en offrant au client une alternative au Diesel plus polyvalente que le 100 % électrique. En revanche, l’industrie s’inquiète d’un possible retour de bâton. Les ventes risquent en effet de s’effondrer et les reproches de voler quand Monsieur et Madame Tout-le-Monde auront compris qu’une hybride rechargeable réclame d’être fréquemment raccordée à une prise de courant. A défaut, elle traîne une batterie épuisée qui grève sa consommation de supercarburant.
Les hybrides rechargeables sont homologuées batterie pleine, alors qu’elles la chargent rarement dans la vie réelle
Rouler en hybride rechargeable réclame une discipline que tous leurs possesseurs ne sont pas enclins à adopter, particulièrement si la note d’essence est réglée par l’employeur. Voilà pourquoi un amendement au texte de la loi Climat et Résilience était déposé le 25 mars 2021 propose d’obliger l’entreprise qui fournit un véhicule hybride rechargeable à son employé, de s’assurer non seulement que “le conducteur a les moyens de recharger le véhicule”, mais encore qu’il a été “sensibilisé à l’usage du véhicule en mode électrique”. Tout un programme.
La précaution n’est pas vaine, à en croire Philippe Gattet, Directeur d’études du Groupe Xerfi. “Une étude publiée par l’ONG Transport & Environnement en novembre 2020 dénonçait des émissions 2,5 fois plus élevées que celles publiées officiellement”, déplore l’analyste lyonnais. “C’est que les conditions réelles d’utilisation des hybrides rechargeables sont la plupart du temps peu optimales. D'une part les entreprises les utilisent en grande partie pour effectuer de longs trajets bien supérieurs à la capacité de la batterie électrique ; d'autre part, ces véhicules pèsent 200 à 300 kg de plus qu'un modèle thermique équivalent. Enfin, d’après la plupart des enquêtes, les utilisateurs rechargent rarement leur batterie, ce qui au final en fait de véritables voitures thermiques, en plus lourdes et plus polluantes.”
Les entreprises peinent encore à évaluer le coût réel de possession des hybrides rechargeables
Les entreprises ne sont pas dupes : elles ont constaté que les hybrides rechargeables ne tiennent pas toutes leurs promesses. Pourtant, si elles en équipent volontiers leurs collaborateurs, c’est avant tout pour profiter des avantages fiscaux. Ainsi que le démontre le baromètre annuel des flottes Arval, le calcul de la TVS (taxes sur les voitures de société indexée sur les émissions de CO2 des voitures) est devenu un critère primordial pour les entreprises lorsqu’elles arrêtent leurs choix de véhicules de fonction (leur fameuse “car policy”).
“Les collaborateurs choisissent leur voiture de fonction dans cette liste, sans toujours bien savoir ce qu’implique la conduite d’une hybride rechargeable”, constate Philippe Ambon, Consultant Senior Fleet Manager chez Holson, qui intervenait le 29 avril dans le cadre du débat organisé par le Journal des Flottes sur l’électrification des flottes et le déclin du Diesel. “Certains jouent le jeu et chargent la batterie dès que l’occasion s’en présente ; d’autres jamais. Ils n’utilisent que leur carte essence, sans se préoccuper de rouler en mode électrique.”
L’Etat subventionne les hybrides rechargeables : autant s’assurer qu’elles roulent en électrique aussi souvent que possible
Le constat n’est pas nouveau, et il inquiète passablement les députés. Au point d’introduire l’amendement précité à la loi Climat et Résilience. Objectif ? Prévenir les conséquences politiques et économiques potentiellement désastreuses d’un désenchantement, le jour où le gouvernement s’apercevra que les deniers publics versés sous forme de bonus écologique auront subventionné l’achat d’hybrides rechargeables qui ne roulent jamais en mode électrique.
“Chez Holson, nous recommandons aux entreprises de bien analyser les besoins et les usages que font leurs collaborateurs de leur voiture de fonction”, reprend Philippe Ambon. “Certains roulent beaucoup en ville, terrain de jeu idéal de l’hybride ; d’autre enchaînent les longs trajets et épuisent trop vite leur réserve d’énergie électrique. Pour éviter les désillusions côté usager comme gestionnaire de flottes, nous préconisons un programme sensibilisation des collaborateurs aux atouts de la circulation en mode électrique, en ville.”
Loi Climat espère obliger les entreprises à former leurs salariés à la bonne conduite d’une hybride rechargeable
C’est ce que propose l’amendement numéro 7212 à la loi Climat et Résilience. Les “entreprises gérant un parc de plus de 100 véhicules, l’État et les collectivités locales qui gèrent un parc de plus de 20 véhicules” se verraient tenus de “en œuvre des actions de formation ou de sensibilisation à l’écoconduite pour les conducteurs” de véhicules hybrides rechargeables. Reste à déterminer les moyens de mise en œuvre de cette politique.
L’expérience démontre que les stages de formation à l’éco conduite sont efficaces pour diminuer effectivement la consommation de carburant des véhicules en entreprise. Surtout si ces économies sont récompensées par le versement d’une prime ou d’un avantage quelconque. Néanmoins d’aucuns doutent qu’un stage de sensibilisation suffise à convaincre les collaborateurs à brancher leur hybride rechargeable.
“Tout dépend de la motivation du conducteur et de l’usage qu’il fait de sa voiture”, reprend Philippe Ambon. “Nous déconseillons l’hybride rechargeable aux entreprises qui n’ont aucun moyen de contraindre leurs collaborateurs à charger et à rouler en électrique. Elles doivent résister à la tentation d’équiper tous leurs collaborateurs de véhicules hybrides rechargeables, quels que soient leurs avantages fiscaux.” Un pragmatisme qui positionne Holson à contre-courant de la tendance actuelle à la dé-diésélisation des flottes.
Contraindre le collaborateur à charger sa batterie ? Le mot est peut-être un peu fort. Certains constructeurs préfèrent miser sur l’incitation. Chez BMW par exemple, plus vous roulez en électrique, moins chère est la charge. Il suffit au propriétaire d’une BMW ou d’une Mini de télécharger une application qui répertorie les minutes de conduite passées en mode “émission nulle”, traduites en nombre de points de fidélité. Ces “BMW Points” peuvent ensuite être monétisés sous la forme de sessions de charge gratuites.
Chez Fiat, des bons d’achat en monnaie virtuelle récompensent les conducteurs qui consomment le moins d'énergie sur la route. Depuis mars 2021, les conducteurs de la toute nouvelle Fiat 500 électrique peuvent autoriser son système d’info-divertissement à transmettre la distance parcourue et la vitesse. Un “mouchard” pour la bonne cause, ainsi que l’explique Gabriele Catacchio, e-Mobility Program Manager chez Stellantis : "Ces données sont envoyées au cloud de Kiri et converties automatiquement en KiriCoin, une monnaie virtuelle créée en 2020 au Royaume-Uni. Elle peut être dépensée en achats de produits et de services, sur une marketplace dédiée.”
L’usage de ce genre d’instruments numériques se développera-t-il en entreprise, sous l’effet de la loi Climat et Résilience ? Il reste à attendre l’issue du vote et à connaître la teneur des décrets d’application pour voir quels moyens matériels les entreprises seront tenus de déployer pour s’assurer que les hybrides rechargeables sont affectées aux petits rouleurs et aux automobilistes suffisamment consciencieux pour en charger la batterie.
>>> Up
* Airbus Raised to Hold at SocGen
* Aixtron Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 20 euros
* Amazon PT Raised to $4,500 from $4,200 at Morgan Stanley (+)
* BioNTech ADRs PT Raised to $213 from $134 at Commerzbank (+)
* Dassault Aviation Raised to Buy at SocGen; PT 1,047 euros
* Hexagon Raised to Hold at Handelsbanken; PT 900 kronor
* Johnson Matthey Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 3,750 pence
* K2a Knaust & Andersson Fastigheter Raised to Buy at Carnegie
* Kering Raised to Outperform at Bernstein; PT 779 euros
* Meggitt Raised to Hold at SocGen; PT 499 pence
* Merlin Properties Raised to Buy at JB Capital Markets
* Merlin Properties Raised to Buy at JB Capital Markets
* MTU Aero Raised to Hold at SocGen; PT 206 euros
* Nemetschek Raised to Buy at Bankhaus Metzler; PT 72 euros (+)
* Nokia Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 4.60 euros (+)
* Nordea Bank Raised to Buy at Arctic Securities; PT 98 kronor
* Petra Diamonds Raised to Buy at Panmure Gordon; PT 2.69 pence (+)
* Rovio Raised to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 6.60 euros
* SAF-Holland SE Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 16 euros
* Safran Raised to Hold at SocGen; PT 125 euros
* SAS Cut to CCC by S&PGR Citing ‘Unsustainable’ Capital Structure
* Straumann Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan
* StrongPoint Raised to Buy at Norne Securities; PT 38 kroner (+)
* Subsea 7 Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 95 kroner
* Umicore Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 56 euros
>>> Down
>>> Down
* Accor Cut to Sell at Berenberg; PT 27.50 euros
* Borregaard Cut to Hold at Carnegie; PT 180 kroner
* DWS Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 41.30 euros
* Efecte Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 16 euros (+)
* Eltel Cut to Hold at Carnegie; PT 28.50 kronor
* Intershop Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 660 Swiss francs
* Lundin Energy Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 280 kronor
* Musti Group Cut to Hold at Carnegie; PT 30 euros
* Piaggio Cut to Accumulate at Banca Akros (ESN) (+)
* STMicroelectronics Cut to Hold at Liberum
* Olvi Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 52 euros
>>> Initiation
* Desert Control Rated New Buy at Arctic Securities
* Olvi Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 52 euros
>>> Initiation
* Desert Control Rated New Buy at Arctic Securities
* Ilika Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT 290 pence (+)
* Moncler Resumed Buy at Citi; PT 59 euros
>>> Call
>>> Call
* Airbus PT, Estimates Raised by Deutsche Bank on Strong 1Q (+)
* Aixtron Attractive After Post-Earnings Fall, Berenberg Says
* BBVA Beats on Impairments, Trading as NII Misses: RBC (+)
* Eni Earnings a Miss, Cash Flow Guidance ‘Underwhelming’: RBC (+)
* Hexagon Attractive Versus Peers, Stock Upgraded at Handelsbanken
* KPN First-Quarter Results Broadly In Line, Goldman Sachs Says (+)
* Lundin Energy Valuation ‘In Line’ After Good 1Q: Berenberg
* Proximus Results Show ‘Small’ Beat, FCF Strong, Goldman Says (+)
* Saint-Gobain 1Q Growth Strong, Little on Strategy: Jefferies
* Saint-Gobain 1Q Growth Strong, Little on Strategy: Jefferies
* Schindler Shares Indicated Higher, Citi Notes ‘Solid’ 1Q Results (+)
* Smurfit Kappa 1Q Strong, Consensus May Drift Higher: Jefferies (+)
* Wacker Chemie 1Q Polysilicon Disappoints, Commerzbank Says (+)
Darktrace to raise £165m in £1.7bn IPO
Cambridge-based cyber security company had earlier hoped for valuation of up to £3bn
Darktrace will be valued at £1.7bn in its London stock market debut, the cyber security company said on Friday, after it priced its initial public offering at 250p per share.
The valuation is about £1bn below Darktrace’s original target.
The Cambridge-based company will raise £143.4m gross proceeds from the deal, with existing shareholders selling shares worth £21.7m. Around £25m more could be raised through an overallotment option if there is demand from investors.
Conditional dealings on the London Stock Exchange are expected to begin on Friday morning under the ticker “DARK”.
Darktrace uses artificial intelligence to spot intruders into a company’s network and other security threats. Its revenues grew 45 per cent in its most recent financial year to almost $200m though it remains lossmaking.
“Our company is deeply rooted in the UK’s tradition of scientific and mathematic research so we are especially proud to be listing on the London Stock Exchange,” Poppy Gustafsson, Darktrace’s chief executive said. “This milestone marks an exciting day for Darktrace.”
Darktrace had originally hoped to achieve a value of up to £3bn, a person familiar with the plan said earlier this month. Earlier this week it set a price range of 220p-280p, which set its valuation range between £1.6bn-£1.9bn.
A more cautious pricing strategy could allow Darktrace to avoid the embarrassing drop in value when its stock starts trading that overshadowed Deliveroo’s debut last month.
Mike Lynch, who was Darktrace’s founding investor through his investment group Invoke Capital, is fighting extradition to the US over charges of fraud related to Hewlett-Packard’s $11bn purchase of Autonomy, the software company he co-founded, in 2011.
Though Lynch has always denied any wrongdoing, Darktrace warned in its IPO filings of potential liabilities due to previous investments from the billionaire, whose family owns almost a fifth of the company ahead of the listing.
In a statement on Friday, Gustafsson thanked Invoke, her previous employer, alongside other early investors including Talis Capital, Hoxton Ventures, Summit Partners, KKR and Vitruvian.
“We owe much gratitude to the Invoke team for their pivotal role in the vision, technology, positioning and operational input in the early years without which today’s success would not have been possible,” she said.
Jefferies, Berenberg and KKR Capital Markets are joint global co-ordinators for the float while Needham and Piper Sandler are acting as additional joint bookrunners.
- Nemetschek (NEM TH) +1.5%
- Nemetschek Raised to Buy at Bankhaus Metzler; PT 72 euros
- Faurecia SE (FAU TH) +1.4%
- Umicore (NVJP TH) +1.1%
- Umicore Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 56 euros
- CD Projekt (7CD TH) +0.9%
- Shop Apotheke (SAE TH) +0.9%
- ArcelorMittal (ARRD TH) +0.9%
- BP (BPE5 TH) +0.8
- Vodafone (VODI TH) +0.8%
- Porsche SE (PAH3 TH) -0.6%
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AstraZeneca (ZEG TH) -0.7%
- AstraZeneca 1Q Core EPS Beats Estimates
-
VW (VOW3 TH) -0.7%
- Volkswagen Probed By SEC Over ‘Voltswagen’ Joke: Spiegel
- VW Plans to Start Developing Own Performance Chips: Handelsblatt
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Deutsche Bank (DBK TH) -0.8%
- Shares have gained 18% so far this week
- UCB (UNC TH) -0.8%
- Andritz (AZ2 TH) -0.8%
- CNH Industrial (37C TH) -0.9%
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Accor (ACR TH) -1.3%
- Accor Cut to Sell at Berenberg; PT 27.50 euros
- Banco Santander (BSD2 TH) -1.5%
- Shares have gained 12% so far this week
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BE Semiconductor (BSI TH) -2.9%
- BE Semiconductor 1Q Gross Margin Misses Estimates
China’s Economic Recovery From Covid-19 Shows Signs of Slowing
Official gauges of manufacturing and service-sector activity fall short of expectations
BEIJING—Official gauges across China’s economy fell short of expectations in April, hit in part by semiconductor shortages, suggesting that the economy’s strong pandemic bounceback is starting to lose some momentum more than a year into the recovery.
China’s official purchasing manager’s indexes showed manufacturing activity falling more sharply than expected, dropping to 51.1 in April, according to data released Friday by the National Bureau of Statistics—lower than March’s 51.9 reading and falling short of the 51.6 median forecast expected by economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.
Though the reading remained above the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction, China’s statistics bureau said global chip shortages, international logistics jams and rising delivery costs have weighed on manufacturers’ operations.
Friday’s official readings also showed continued softness in the service sector—underscoring concerns among economists that domestic spending, a persistent weak point in the recovery, would hold back China’s economy in the coming months.
China’s nonmanufacturing PMI, which includes services and construction activity, fell to 54.9 in April from March’s 56.3 level. The subindex measuring business activity in the service sector fell to 54.4 from March’s 55.2.
The weaker-than-expected readings from across China’s economy come after a year in which the country largely defied expectations to become the only major global economy to grow in pandemic-scarred 2020.
The data, however, wasn’t all downbeat. A separate private gauge of economic activity, also released Friday, showed activity among smaller manufacturers picking up to its highest monthly level this year, supported by strong demand and production.
The Caixin China purchasing managers index rebounded to 51.9 in April, from 50.6 the previous month, according to Caixin Media Co. and market research firm IHS Markit.
That was largely in line with the official manufacturing PMI, whose subindex measuring small manufacturers’ activity bucked the broader trend by showing a pickup in activity in April even as its larger peers retreated.
“While the headline official PMI is surprisingly low, the rebound in small manufacturer PMI sent out a positive signal, suggesting the recovery of small business continued last month,” said ANZ economist Betty Wang.
China’s bigger manufacturers were held back in part by the global chip shortage, which has hit a variety of industries, most notably autos and electronic goods. China’s manufacturing of digital gadgets relies heavily on imports.
Meanwhile, China’s nonmanufacturing sector, seen by officials and economists as the key to sustaining the recovery in the world’s second-largest economy as the once-hot industrial and export sectors cool off, again fell short of expectations in April.
In large part, that may be because of a sharp pullback in construction activity. The official PMI subindex tracking construction dropped to 57.4 in April, from 62.3 in the previous month, a move economists said reflects the impact of tighter regulations and tougher financing for property developers.
More encouraging for policy makers, consumer spending—a key component of Beijing’s attempts to tilt the Chinese economy more toward domestic consumption—appears to be gaining speed after a year in which localized Covid-19 outbreaks suppressed the urge to splurge.
“Residents’ willingness to consume has sharply increased, and market activity has increased,” the statistics bureau said Friday, pointing to strong improvement in the health of hotels, restaurants and entertainment venues.
After a long weekend in early April that topped expectations for domestic travel, analysts are pinning their hopes on the five-day Labor Day holiday that begins Saturday.
During the long holiday, China’s Transport Ministry estimates, travelers will make 265 million trips, on par with the same pre-coronavirus period in 2019.
Trip.com Group Ltd. , operator of China’s largest online travel-booking site, said air-ticket reservations for the holiday are 23% higher than in 2019, despite higher prices.
Even so, Chinese citizens’ willingness to part with their hard-earned yuan will depend in part on the health of the labor market, which continues to look less than robust.
The employment subindexes of both the official manufacturing and nonmanufacturing PMIs fell deeper into contractionary territory in April, Friday’s data showed.
“The slow recovery of China’s labor market will continue to weigh on the nation’s consumer spending,” said Ms. Wang, of ANZ.
DAX:
- No major moves
MDAX:
- Aixtron (AIXA TH) +3.5%
- Aixtron Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 20 euros
- Shop Apotheke (SAE TH) +0.9%
- CompuGroup (COP TH) -1.2%
- Wacker Chemie (WCH TH) -2.9%
- Wacker Chemie 1Q Ebitda Beats Estimates
SDAX:
- SAF-Holland (SFQ TH) +2.5%
- SAF-Holland SE Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 16 euros
- ElringKlinger (ZIL2 TH) +2%
- Metzler raises price target to EU22 from EU18
- Schaeffler (SHA TH) +1.8%
- Wacker Neuson (WAC TH) +0.9%
- Grenke (GLJ TH) -1.5%
- Grenke FY Net Income EU79.9M Vs. EU135.9M Y/y