Closing Stock Market SummaryThe S&P 500 declined 0.2% on Tuesday and traded slightly lower the entire the session, except for the opening tick, which marked an all-time high for the benchmark index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.3%) and Russell 2000 (-0.3%) performed similarly, while the Nasdaq Composite (-0.7%) underperformed.
Trading conviction was largely lacking in front of the Fed's policy decision tomorrow, although the S&P 500 energy sector (+2.1%) couldn't be stopped as oil prices ($72.07/bbl, +1.16, +1.6%) continued to rise. The information technology (-0.6%), communication services (-0.5%), and real estate (-1.0%) sectors underperformed.
Today's economic calendar featured a 1.3% m/m decline in retail sales for May (Briefing.com consensus -0.6%), a 0.8% m/m increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for May (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%), and 0.8% m/m increase in industrial production for May (Briefing.com consensus 0.7%).
The year-over-year increase in total PPI was 6.6%, yet the Treasury market (or stock market) barely reacted to the hotter-than-expected inflation data. The 10-yr yield settled unchanged at 1.50%, which was below the 1.53% level it reached soon after the hot CPI report last week.
It's fair to say the market was expecting producer inflation to be running a little hot given the inflation pressures highlighted in previous economic data and the incessant inflation commentary in recent weeks. Judgement might have been reserved for what the Fed has to say about inflation expectations and monetary policy tomorrow.
In other developments, the U.S. and EU agreed to suspend their tariff dispute regarding Boeing (BA 246.54, +1.40, +0.6%) and Airbus, and New York lifted its state-mandated COVID restrictions after the state reached its goal of 70% adult vaccinations.
The 2-yr yield increased one basis point to 0.16%. The U.S. Dollar Index was unchanged at 90.52. Copper futures fell 4.2%, or $0.19, to $4.34/bbl amid profit-taking interest, leaving it down 7% this month.
Reviewing Tuesday's large batch of economic data, which featured the Retail Sales report for May and the Producer Price Index for May:
- Total retail sales fell 1.3% in May ( consensus -0.6%) after an upwardly revised 0.9% increase in April (from 0.0%). Excluding autos, retail sales fell 0.7% (consensus 0.5%) after an upwardly revised flat reading for April (from -0.8%).
- The key takeaway from the report is that decreases were recorded in almost all discretionary categories. However, April figures benefited from healthy upward revisions, which raised the bar for the May report. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales were up 28.1%.
- The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.8% m/m in May (consensus 0.5%) after increasing 0.6% in April. The Producer Price Index for final demand, less food and energy rose 0.7% m/m (consensus 0.5%) for the second consecutive month. On a year-over-year basis, the Producer Price Index for final demand was up 6.6% in May versus 6.2% in April while the Producer Price Index for final demand, less food and energy was up 5.3% in May versus 4.6% in April.
- The key takeaway from the report is that it showed a continuation of broad-based price pressures at the producer level, which will fuel continued concerns about overall inflation.
- Total industrial production increased 0.8% in May (consensus 0.7%) after a downwardly revised 0.1% uptick in April (from 0.7%). The capacity utilization rate increased to 75.2% (consensus 75.1%) from a downwardly revised 74.6% in April (from 74.9%).
- The key takeaway from the report is that it showed a rebound in motor vehicle assemblies, which is an encouraging sign about a sector that has been significantly impacted by the semiconductor shortage. Total industrial production was up 16.3% yr/yr, but still 1.4% below its pre-pandemic (February 2020) level. The capacity utilization rate of 75.2% is 4.4 percentage points below its long-run average.
- The NAHB Housing Market Index for June decreased by two points to 81 (Briefing.com consensus 83.0).
- The Empire State Manufacturing Survey decreased to 17.4 in June (consensus 20.0) from 24.3 in May.
- Business inventories decreased 0.2% m/m in April (consensus -0.1%) following a downwardly revised 0.2% increase (from +0.3%) in March.
Looking ahead, investors will receive the FOMC Rate Decision, Housing Starts and Building Permits for May, Export and Import Prices for May, and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index on Wednesday.
- Russell 2000 +17.5% YTD
- S&P 500 +13.1% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average +12.1% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite +9.2% YTD
"The life of the inflation in its ripening stage was a paradox which had its own unmistakable characteristics. One was the great wealth, at least of those favored by the boom..Many great fortunes sprang up overnight...The cities, had an aimless and wanton youth""Prices in Germany were steady, and both business and the stock market were booming. The exchange rate of the mark against the dollar and other currencies actually rose for a time, and the mark was momentarily the strongest currency in the world" on inflation's eve."Side by side with the wealth were the pockets of poverty. Greater numbers of people remained on the outside of the easy money, looking in but not able to enter. The crime rate soared.""Accounts of the time tell of a progressive demoralization which crept over the common people, compounded of their weariness with the breakneck pace, to no visible purpose, and their fears from watching their own precarious positions slip while others grew so conspicuously rich.""Almost any kind of business could make money. Business failures and bankruptcies became few. The boom suspended the normal processes of natural selection by which the nonessential and ineffective otherwise would have been culled out.""Speculation alone, while adding nothing to Germany's wealth, became one of its largest activities. The fever to join in turning a quick mark infected nearly all classes..Everyone from the elevator operator up was playing the market.""The volumes of turnover in securities on the Berlin Bourse became so high that the financial industry could not keep up with the paperwork...and the Bourse was obliged to close several days a week to work off the backlog" robinhooddown"all the marks that existed in the world in the summer of 1922 were not worth enough, by November of 1923, to buy a single newspaper or a tram ticket. That was the spectacular part of the collapse, but most of the real loss in money wealth had been suffered much earlier.""Throughout these years the structure was quietly building itself up for the blow. Germany's #inflationcycle ran not for a year but for nine years, representing eight years of gestation and only one year of #collapse."
“The idea that inflation is transitory, to me ... that one just doesn’t work the way I see the world."
"People always ask me what is going on in the markets. It is simple. Greatest Speculative Bubble of All Time in All Things. By two orders of magnitude. #FlyingPigs360"
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