Since UMG’s IPO on Sep 21, UMG is up 0.9% while WMG is up 7.6%
When discussing UMG’s potential valuation prior to the IPO, investors were all using WMG as a reference
The debate was about the premium at which UMG would be trading
Well, UMG core business (excluding stakes in Vevo, SPOT and TME) is now trading at an 8% discount to WMG’s multiple as UMG has not enjoyed the same performance as WMG lately
UMG has now released its first set of results and there is a decent consensus on its EBITDA 21E so we should not expect any surprises (the lowest estimate of €1,777 is 2.4% below the mean of €1,820 used in my calculations)
UMG should catch up to WMG’s valuation at some point
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Wendel released Q3 results this morning
CIX updated: H-MF%
- Updated NAV released, discount of 37.8% on NAV
- Company indicating that the Dulux price for Cromologie was done at a valuation E369m above Wendel's valuation in its NAV
- MF acquired a 24.9% stake in TKTT FP for E222m
They justify -2.4% drop in NAV since June 30 as due to "principally as a result of the valuation gap between the first trading days of IHS vs. the June 30 Net Asset Value" so they had higher valuation in accounts for IHS.
Updated SOP below
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a quick update on IHS
- IHS is trading at an implied 7.0x EV/EBITDA 21E multiple
- This is a 45% discount to HTWS
- HTWS is the cheapest peer but it is obviously even more of a discount when looking at a basket of the 4 independent Towers peers
People must be worried of MTN’s comments that they will use their stake to reduce debt and invest into their core business (i.e. sell most of it)
The stock may also be experiencing some flowback from other shareholders who were sellers into the IPO
It is due a bounce at some point as It does not make much sense from a valuation standpoint
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Closing Stock Market SummaryThe S&P 500 (+1.0%) and Nasdaq Composite (+1.4%) rallied to record closes on Thursday, bolstered by better-than-expected earnings reports, mega-cap strength, and infrastructure optimism. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.7% while the Russell 2000 rose 2.0%. The Nasdaq also set an intraday record high.
Most companies continued to exceed expectations for the third quarter, and the good news seemed to rub off on Apple (AAPL 152.57, +3.72, +2.5%) and Amazon.com (AMZN 3446.57, +54.08, +1.6%) in front of their earnings reports after the close. Unlike yesterday, the gains were distributed beyond the mega-caps.
All 11 S&P 500 sectors closed higher with gains ranging from 0.3% (communication services) to 1.5% (real estate). The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP 158.04, +1.59) gained 1.0% after falling 1.3% yesterday. Advancing issues outpaced declining issues by more than a 2:1 margin at the NYSE.
Dow components Merck (MRK 86.55, +5.01, +6.1%) and Caterpillar (CAT 204.09, +7.96, +4.1%) were two earnings standouts along with Ford Motor (F 16.86, +1.35, +8.7%). MasterCard (MA 333.03, -2.69, -0.8%) and Comcast (CMCSA 51.90, -0.54, -1.0%), however, failed to excite shareholders with their EPS beats.
Separately, Facebook (FB 316.92, +4.70, +1.5%) confirmed a name change to "Meta" and a ticker change to "MVRS," starting Dec. 1.
On infrastructure, President Biden announced the framework for the $1.75 trillion budget reconciliation bill that he urged Congress to support. While Democrats remained divided on the bill, investors were hopeful that an agreement could happen soon so that the House could vote on the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill.
The market also reacted positively to mixed economic data: real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.0% in the third quarter (consensus 2.4%), according to the advance estimate, while initial claims were 281,000 (consensus 291,000) for a new post-pandemic low.
Underscoring the slowdown in the third quarter, real final sales of domestic product, which exclude the change in private inventories, were down 0.1% after increasing 8.1% in the second quarter. The silver lining, however, was that headline print was better than feared by some accounts and the news was backwards-looking.
The 2-yr yield increased two basis points to 0.50% after peaking at 1.56% overnight, and the 10-yr yield increased four basis points to 1.57%. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.5% to 93.37. WTI crude futures ($82.79/bbl, +0.11, +0.1%) settled little changed.
Reviewing Thursday's economic data:
- The Advance Q3 GDP report indicated real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.0% (consensus 2.4%), down noticeably from the 6.7% growth rate reported for the second quarter, as personal spending growth decelerated to just 1.6% from 12.0% in the second quarter. The GDP Price Deflator was up 5.7% (consensus 5.5%) after increasing 6.1% in the second quarter.
- The key takeaway from the report is that it was weaker than meets the eye. Real final sales of domestic product, which exclude the change in private inventories, were down 0.1% after increasing 8.1% in the second quarter. That was the weakest showing since the second quarter of 2020.
- For the week ending October 23, initial claims declined by 10,000 to 281,000 (consensus 291,000), marking the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020. Continuing claims for the week ending October 16 decreased by 237,000 to 2.243 million, which was also the lowest level since March 14, 2020.
- The key takeaway from the report rests in the improving trend in jobless claims, which is what should be seen when taking into account the massive number of job openings and the recurring acknowledgment of labor constraints heard from companies reporting earnings.
- Pending home sales decreased 2.3% m/m in September (consensus 1.0%) following an unrevised 8.1% increase in August.
Looking ahead to Friday, investors will receive Personal Income and Spending for September, PCE Prices for September, the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for October, the Employment Cost Index for the third quarter, and the Chicago PMI for October.
- S&P 500 +22.4% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite +19.9% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average +16.7% YTD
- Russell 2000 +16.4% YTD