WSJ : A Simple Piece of Steel and Wheels Is Holding Up the Global Supply Chain

A Simple Piece of Steel and Wheels Is Holding Up the Global Supply Chain
Truckers in Southern California are struggling to move containers from port terminals and rail yards because of a shortage of the chassis that carry the boxes

Transportation executives wrestling with the supply-chain gridlock that is frustrating U.S. importers say the ability to clear the bottlenecks rests largely on a simple piece of steel and wheels that has long been an afterthought in global shipping.

The trucking trailers, known as chassis and used to ferry containers from dockside terminals, have grown more difficult to find at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, Calif., officials said, as a flood of imports has swamped the facilities and tied up equipment needed to keep goods moving.

Executives close to the operations around the ports say unraveling the gridlock at the coast, including the backup of more than 70 container ships anchored offshore and waiting for berth space, won’t be possible without solving equipment problems, such as the chassis shortage, that have hamstrung operations.

“The chassis are the biggest issue” in problems that stretch from the docks at the neighboring Los Angeles and Long Beach ports to warehouses deeper into California and intermodal rail yards in the Midwest, said Matt Schrap, chief executive of the Harbor Trucking Association, which represents port truckers in Southern California.

The reason container ships are backed up outside the country’s biggest container seaport complex, according to Mr. Schrap and other officials: because dockworkers can’t unload ships quickly because terminals are full of boxes that truckers can’t pick up because they can’t find a chassis.

There are roughly 115,000 chassis at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, according to DCLI, a major chassis provider. A little more than half of the frames are privately owned or leased. Truckers can lease the remaining 57,000 chassis from a common pool supplied by DCLI and two other providers.

Normally, there are enough trailers to handle the thousands of containers moving through the ports. But executives say the unrelenting heavy flow of imports that began in the middle of 2020, coupled with labor shortages at warehouses and other cargo-handling facilities, has resulted in the frames being away from the ports for long stretches, crimping the ability of operators to turn around the equipment to carry new boxes.

Mike O’Malley, a DCLI spokesman, said pooled chassis at the Southern California ports were held outside the port in September for more than nine days, on average, double the time they were occupied before the coronavirus pandemic.

The frames are part of a choreographed operation. A trucker picks up the chassis at one site near the ports, drives to a terminal to have a container loaded, takes it to a warehouse perhaps 50 miles away and then returns to repeat the operation.

Because many warehouses are overwhelmed today resulting in delays in unloading the container, the trucker often leaves the box atop the chassis for days longer than usual at a receiving facility.

The delays at destination sites have thrown the system out of balance, operators say.

Weston LaBar, chief strategy officer at Cargomatic Inc., a freight platform that matches truckers with shippers, said too often today chassis “are being used as a storage mechanism.”

Ocean carriers have also placed restrictions on when empty containers can be returned, which worsens the congestion. A survey this week by the Harbor Trucking Association found that among 46 trucking firms, 6,592 chassis were stuck beneath empty containers.

“It becomes a vicious cycle,” said Lisa Wan, director of operations at Calif.-based trucking company RoadEx America. “If I cannot bring in an empty to reuse my chassis, then where do I find a bare chassis to pick up the import container?”

A decline in the supply of new frames is exacerbating the shortage, according to trucking and chassis executives. In May, the U.S. International Trade Commission imposed countervailing and antidumping duties totaling more than 200% on Chinese chassis producers that supplied the majority of frames to the U.S.

A coalition of U.S. chassis manufacturers that argued in favor of the ITC actions says duties haven’t contributed to the supply-chain congestion. Frank Katz, CEO of Cheetah Chassis, one of the largest domestic manufacturers, based in Berwick, Pa., said companies such as his are trying to ramp up production.

Mr. Katz said the real issue is that the import surge has overwhelmed the domestic supply chain. “If we could double output, it wouldn’t make any difference at all,” Mr. Katz said.

Doug Hoehn, executive vice president of Milestone Chassis Co., a leasing firm based in Lombard, Ill., said domestic manufacturers are thousands of units short of his company’s orders for new equipment. Milestone has a fleet of 20,000 chassis across North America, including in Southern California, that needs constant replenishment because of wear and tear.

“If you came to lease a chassis today, my response to you would be, ‘Here’s a piece of paper, sign it and I can get you a chassis in the third quarter of next year,’” Mr. Hoehn said.

WSJ : Satellite Maker Terran Orbital Strikes $1.58 Billion SPAC Deal

Satellite Maker Terran Orbital Strikes $1.58 Billion SPAC Deal
Backed by Lockheed Martin, Terran customers include NASA and U.S. Defense Department

Satellite maker Terran Orbital Corp. is merging with a special-purpose acquisition company to go public at a $1.58 billion valuation, the companies said, the latest in a string of space-related companies to list through a SPAC.

Florida-based Terran designs and builds satellites for customers including the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the U.S. Defense Department and EchoStar Corp. SATS 1.17% , a provider of satellite and internet communication services.

Terran is developing its own constellation of low-Earth-orbit satellites, with plans to launch next year and targeting customers such as shippers that need to track their vessels and governments monitoring conflict zones.

Terran, founded in 2013, is merging with Tailwind Two Acquisition Corp., a SPAC listed on the New York Stock Exchange and led by Casper Sleep Inc. Chief Executive Philip Krim.

Several space companies have gone public through SPAC mergers, which offer some advantages over traditional initial public offerings for early-stage companies with scant track records. They are tapping into investors’ expectations that space travel for business, tourism and research will get much cheaper in the coming years.

Today, insurance companies, for example, can afford to map out rooftops in Florida the day before a hurricane hit and the day after to protect themselves against insurance fraud, said Terran Chief Executive Marc Bell in an interview. “That couldn’t happen 10 years ago because the satellite technology was too expensive,” he said.

Virgin Orbit, a satellite-launching startup backed by British billionaire Richard Branson, in August agreed to merge with a blank-check company in a $3.2 billion deal that included an investment from Boeing Co. Shares of the SPAC, NextGen Acquisition Corp. II, are up 3.6% since the deal was announced.

SPACs raise money by going public and then have a set period, usually two years, to hunt for an acquisition target. They were hot investments early this year then faded in popularity after many companies that went public this way struggled to meet their business targets.

Terran’s Mr. Bell is unfazed. SPACs offer a faster way than the traditional route of an initial public offering and offer greater certainty of the deal closing, he said.

The Tailwind merger gives Terran access to about $345 million held by the SPAC. It will also get $125 million in additional funds from investors including Lockheed Martin Corp. LMT 0.14% , an existing Terran investor and customer, and private-equity firms AE Industrial Partners and Francisco Partners.

Mr. Bell said the money would be used to expand Terran’s two manufacturing plants in California while it builds a new, bigger facility in Cape Canaveral, Fla., over the next three years. Florida’s government has contributed $300 million to that project, which Terran says will be able to produce more than 1,000 satellites annually.

WSJ : Amazon Earnings Suffer as Growth Slows, Costs Rise

Amazon Earnings Suffer as Growth Slows, Costs Rise
E-commerce and cloud-computing company tries to navigate supply-chain and staffing challenges to maintain growth

Amazon. AMZN 1.59% com Inc. posted lower-than-expected third-quarter sales and signaled that a tight labor market and supply-chain disruptions would weigh on earnings.

The Seattle-based tech company has been navigating substantial shifts in the economy in recent months. Online sales have surged since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, boosting Amazon’s profit, but sales growth has slowed while labor and supply-chain shortages make it harder to meet demand. The company says it has spent heavily to build out its fulfillment network.

In its first quarterly earnings report covering a period primarily under new Chief Executive Andy Jassy, who on July 5 succeeded founder Jeff Bezos in the top job at Amazon, the online retailing giant posted sales of $110.8 billion and generated a profit of $3.2 billion, down from the $6.3 billion the company made during the same period a year earlier. Wall Street expected $111.6 billion in quarterly revenue and profit of $4.6 billion.

In the current quarter, “we expect to incur several billion dollars of additional costs in our consumer business as we manage through labor supply shortages, increased wage costs, global supply chain issues, and increased freight and shipping costs—all while doing whatever it takes to minimize the impact on customers and selling partners this holiday season,” Mr. Jassy said in a statement.

For the fourth quarter, the company projects sales between $130 billion and $140 billion, compared with a Wall Street expectation of $142.2 billion.

Amazon shares, which closed up 1.59% in Thursday trading, fell more than 3% after the bell with the results.

Amazon’s cloud-computing business, which offers server capacity and software tools and generates a significant portion of the company’s operating profit, has continued to grow at a fast clip. Amazon has also seen strong demand for its digital advertising business, which has increasingly competed with Google and Facebook’s powerful ad platforms. Sales for the cloud unit continued to climb sharply, totaling $16.1 billion in the third quarter, up about 38% from a year earlier. Amazon’s unit that primarily includes ad sales grew 50%.

Amazon’s technology peers showed robust results this week. Microsoft Corp. , the No. 2 in the cloud behind Amazon, on Tuesday reported a 48% jump in quarterly profit to $20.5 billion. Alphabet Inc.’s Google nearly doubled its profit in its third quarter, as smaller businesses poured money into ads.

During Amazon’s previous earnings report in July, Chief Financial Officer Brian Olsavsky stressed that the company’s coming financial performances would run into tough comparisons after the previous year’s pandemic-fueled success. In addition, Amazon held its annual Prime Day sales extravaganza during its second quarter, taking away the revenue boost from the event that has typically been held during its third quarter.

The nation’s second-largest private employer has said it plans to hire about 275,000 permanent and seasonal employees in the face of a tight labor market, partly to deal with the anticipated online holiday shopping surge. To help attract and retain staff, Amazon raised wages, now averaging a little over $18 an hour, and has handed out bonuses of $3,000 in some cases. The online retailer also recently introduced a plan to pay for the tuition of its workers.

Mr. Jassy also said the company has doubled the size of its fulfillment network since the start of the pandemic.

“Up and down the supply chain, costs are increasing, and Amazon isn’t immune,” said Andrew Lipsman, principal analyst at market research firm Insider Intelligence. “But they are reaping some of the benefits now in the investments they made in logistics a couple of years ago.”

To help make good on orders, Amazon this week said it would use more ports and has doubled container processing capacity. The company has also expanded the fleet of planes it uses to ferry packages and taken other steps to meet demand.

Amazon heads into its last quarter also facing increased tension with its workforce.

The National Labor Relations Board this week said a group of Amazon employees in New York had shown enough worker interest for a potential union election. The fledgling group, which calls itself Amazon Labor Union, has campaigned across four Staten Island company facilities that organizers say employ roughly 7,000 workers. Amazon is expected to contest the group’s proposed bargaining unit.

The case in New York represents the second formal U.S.-based union push at Amazon in the past year. Workers at an Amazon facility in Bessemer, Ala., earlier this year voted against joining the Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union, or RWDSU.

No Amazon employee in the U.S. is represented by a union. Amazon, which has long opposed unions, has maintained that it already provides the benefits unions ask for and prefers to negotiate with workers directly.

WSJ : Apple Warns of Supply-Chain Disruptions as It Reports Record Year-End Resu

Apple Warns of Supply-Chain Disruptions as It Reports Record Year-End Results
Investors remain watchful of chip shortages as iPhone maker posts profit of $20.6 billion

Apple Inc. AAPL 2.50% on Thursday reported record year-end results, including a 12-month profit nearing $100 billion, while cautioning that the current quarter will face increased challenges from supply-chain disruptions.

The iPhone maker still expects to see year-over-year revenue growth during the period that ends in December, and includes the important holiday season, Apple Chief Financial Officer Luca Maestri said in an interview.

The company had cautioned this summer that disruptions from a shortage of microprocessors would affect its iPhone line up, but it was worse than expected, he said. The disruptions came from the shortages roiling others and because of an increase in Covid-19 cases in Southeast Asia that affected manufacturing.

Mr. Maestri acknowledged that wait times for some Apple products were longer than the company would like. Supply constraints during the previous quarter hurt revenue by $6 billion, he said, and will be worse in the current period.

“We fully expect to set a new December quarter record for revenue,” he said. “But we also expect the supply constraints will be greater than the $6 billion.…We expect most of our product categories to be constrained during the December quarter.”

Apple had largely avoided a hit to its financial results during the past year as other companies have struggled with shortages of microprocessors, putting the company in a position to benefit from iPhones that offered faster 5G cellular technology for the first time.

But questions loom about the availability of Apple’s newest smartphone, the iPhone 13, which was introduced last month. There are multiweek waits in some areas for delivery of certain models of the phone and other products. Investors are eager to see if the continued allure of 5G technology and new camera capabilities will help fuel another big year.

“Can they deliver the product?” asked Dan Morgan, a senior portfolio manager who focuses on technology at Synovus Trust Co., which counts Apple among its largest holdings. He remains bullish but wants to know if supply chain challenges could affect orders of the iPhone 13, iPad Mini or other products during the holiday season, he said.

In July, Apple cautioned that iPhone sales would be affected during the company’s fiscal fourth quarter, which ended in September, slowing its rate of growth compared with the third quarter when overall revenue rose 36%.

After the market closed, the company reported $20.6 billion in profit for the quarter, or $1.24 a share, up from $12.7 billion a year earlier. Analysts had expected profit of $1.24 a share.

During the first three quarters of its fiscal 2021, from October 2020 through June of this year, Apple earned $74 billion. That is already far more than what was previously its best full year, in fiscal 2018, when the company’s profit totaled $58.5 billion.

Slightly lower-than-expected sales of iPhones resulted in total revenue of $83.4 billion for the fourth quarter, a 29% rise from a year earlier but lower than the $85 billion expected by analysts surveyed by FactSet.

Chief Executive Tim Cook’s success navigating the turbulent waters of the Covid-19 pandemic helped Apple lead other big tech companies in enjoying outsize profits during uncertain times. That success and broader questions about the power of these tech companies have also put them under scrutiny.

Apple emerged mostly unscathed from an antitrust lawsuit in September brought by Epic Games Inc. that centered on its App Store’s role as the gatekeeper for customers on its iPhones and its required in-app payment system that gives it as much as a 30% cut of digital revenue. Apple and Epic are appealing the ruling.

Investors were set to look closely at the company’s service revenue—which includes sales from the App Store and ads sold through its own nascent advertising network—for any signs that its crackdown on third-party software privacy has helped its own ad business. Revenue in the services category rose 26% to $18.28 billion from a year earlier, the company said.

Last quarter was the first full period since Apple introduced changes to its mobile software that required third-party apps to receive user permission to track their usage, a key part of the online ad industry. Facebook Inc. this week reported slower revenue growth attributed to Apple’s changes, while Snapchat’s Snap Inc. cautioned last week that it expected growth to slow for the same reason.

Some investors argue that Apple is naturally going to see a tougher year in fiscal 2022 and, to make their case, they point to previous years that followed the company benefiting from hot iPhone introductions that have resulted in larger than normal results. Others see continued momentum from 5G.

Apple is expected to have delivered a record 238 million iPhones in the past fiscal year, according to analysts’ estimates. They expect 233 million this year. The company doesn’t disclose unit sales but, during the first nine months of the fiscal year, iPhone revenue rose 38% to $153 billion. In the July-to-September quarter, iPhone revenue rose 47% to $38.9 billion, missing the $41 billion expected by analysts.

The strength of Apple’s other products throughout the Covid-19 pandemic has helped fuel record profit. The company has benefited from workers and students at home wanting new laptops and iPad tablets.

Those results continued to grow in the fiscal quarter. Sales of Mac computers rose 1.6% to $9.2 billion, while sales iPads rose 21% to $8.3 billion. Analysts had expected growth of 1.3% for Macs and 6.6% for iPads during the period compared with a year ago.

Since the pandemic began, disrupting normal operations, Apple has stopped giving detailed guidance. Still, analysts and investors will be looking closely for any hints dropped by Mr. Cook during the company’s conference call with analysts after earnings are released.

Investors are also looking at how Apple is dealing with rising costs associated with increasing inflation. The newest iPhones didn’t have a starting price jump when revealed in September, though the company has benefited from higher selling prices in part because of deals being offered by cellular phone service providers in the U.S., which are fighting to keep customers.

FT : Bank of England considers capital rules for banks to cover climate risks

Bank of England considers capital rules for banks to cover climate risks
Changes to buffer requirements will be examined by Prudential Regulation Authority ahead of a decision next year

The Bank of England will consider whether it should force banks to hold extra capital to cover risks from climate change, as central banks come under pressure to assess any shock to the financial system.

The central bank’s Prudential Regulation Authority said on Thursday that it would examine whether changes to bank capital buffers might be necessary to manage the impact of climate change, and it would publish its findings by the end of 2022.

But the authority distanced itself from the responsibility for directing money flows. It stressed that capital requirements should be used only to address the effects of climate change, and to absorb any losses.

Steering the move to a low-carbon economy was the responsibility of government, it noted.

The UK took steps to become the first country in the G20 to force certain companies to disclose their climate-related risks, as it introduced legislation on Thursday that would make it a requirement from next April.

Pressure has grown on global banking regulators to address the potential risks to the financial system from the estimated $750bn tied to fossil fuel assets in the major banks alone.

Among the actions the PRA could take is to require banks to set aside capital both on a system-wide basis and on an individual basis, requiring banks to cover their specific exposures.

Hedge fund manager Chris Hohn told the Financial Times this month that he believed central banks were “allowing systemic risk to build” by “not doing their job to regulate carbon”.

Hohn’s Children’s Investment Fund Foundation said in response to the latest PRA statement that capital buffers were critical. “Capital charges exist to ensure the financial system is safe from systemic risk including climate change — higher charges for dirty assets with higher transition risk is essential,” said Mike Hugman, CIFF director of climate finance.

Al Gore, former US vice-president, also said in an interview with the FT that banks’ capital requirements should be changed to incorporate climate, in order to dissuade financiers from investing in “destructive practices”.

The PRA maintains that it is for policymakers to dissuade investors from ploughing money into carbon-intensive investments. Direct policy interventions, such as putting a price on carbon emissions, “would offer better incentives for action across the wider economy”, it said.

The Brussels-based non-profit group Finance Watch said the PRA was taking “the right approach”. Current capital requirements underestimated the risks associated with carbon-intensive investments, and changing the rules would “effectively orient capital towards sustainable activities”.

The PRA was not dictating banks’ investment decisions, said Thierry Philipponnat, Finance Watch head of research and advocacy, but it could change capital requirements to ensure that any lender taking on risk did not trigger a systemic problem.

In justifying its position, the PRA said capital requirements “seem unlikely to be the most effective tool in reducing carbon-intensive activities unless calibrated at more extreme levels”.

This could lead to “unintended consequences”, it said, such as investments classified as “green” being treated as less risky than they may turn out to be.

That could have “financial stability implications”, and also deprive key sectors of the financing they needed to transition to greener business models, the PRA said.

The European Commission has asked the European Banking Authority to assess whether capital requirements could be altered to take into account climate risk. The commission said this week that the introduction of new rules on bank capital would be delayed until 2025.

Also on Thursday, the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority said that most asset managers and listed companies had not yet set net zero emissions targets, despite many having committed to doing so and signing up to industry-led initiatives.

The FCA said some institutions were concerned that setting climate goals would force them to reduce their exposure to certain clients or asset classes, which could “conflict with their business relationships”, such as their client’s instructions to invest in those assets.

FT : Cheap antidepressant cuts risk of Covid hospitalisation, study finds

Cheap antidepressant cuts risk of Covid hospitalisation, study finds
Trial shows fluvoxamine reduces need for retention in an emergency setting or transfer to another hospital

A cheap antidepressant reduces the risk of hospitalisation in Covid-19 outpatients that are at higher risk of severe disease, a large study has found.

Researchers in a peer-reviewed study published in The Lancet Global Health found that fluvoxamine, which is used to treat depression and obsessive-compulsive disorders, reduced the need for retention in a Covid emergency setting or transfer to another hospital.

It is the largest randomised trial to date to assess the effectiveness of the drug in Covid outpatients, and follows earlier promising evidence.

“Identifying inexpensive, widely available, and effective therapies against Covid-19 is . . . of great importance, and repurposing existing medications that are widely available and have well-understood safety profiles is of particular interest,” said Dr Edward Mills of McMaster University in Canada, co-principal investigator on the trial.

“Recent vaccination developments and campaigns have proved to be effective and important in reducing the number of new symptomatic cases, hospitalisations, and deaths due to Covid-19. However, Covid-19 still poses a risk to individuals in countries with low resources and limited access to vaccinations,” he said.

Of the 741 patients in Brazil who received 100mg of the drug twice a day, 79 required an extended stay in an emergency setting or hospitalisation, compared with 119 out of 756 who were given a placebo.

Penny Ward, a visiting professor in pharmaceutical medicine at King’s College London, said the results were “promising”, especially given the price and availability of the product.

However, she said the study had limitations, particularly concerning the impact on more severe outcomes. The level of protection afforded in breakthrough cases was uncertain because vaccinated patients were excluded from the trial, she added.

It is also unclear whether the drug has benefit for broader populations, including those without risk factors, said experts who were not involved in the study.

Fluvoxamine has a list price of about £17 in the UK, according to British National Formulary figures.

While the number of treatments available for Covid has increased since the pandemic emerged, most are expensive or difficult to make and administer, putting them beyond the reach of people in many parts of the world.

A number of repurposed drugs, including ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine, were initially believed to confer benefit but failed in rigorous trials. Other repurposed agents, such as Gilead Sciences’ intravenously administered antiviral remdesivir, offer limited benefit in the face of high prices. Dexamethasone, a steroid, is cheap and widely available but given later in the course of the disease.

Molnupiravir, an oral drug made by Merck which the company is making widely available through royalty-free licensing deals, has been hailed as a groundbreaking antiviral treatment since it is given orally and is easy to make.

FT Lex : Airline slots: time to rethink the system for take-off and landing

Airline slots: time to rethink the system for take-off and landing
Dissent is growing over an allocation system that has governed the industry for more than seven decades

Slot allocation at capacity-constrained airports is a source of constant disputes. This month, low-cost Irish airline Ryanair fulminated against what it claimed was anti-competitive “slot blocking” in Lisbon by Portugal’s flag carrier TAP. Incumbents have gripes too. They are feeling the pinch from the EU’s use-them or lose-them rules.

The usual requirement that airlines fly 80 per cent of the time in order to retain their landing slots was relaxed in the pandemic. Now the EU is demanding airlines use at least half of all slots held for the winter season. That is a tough ask given industry predictions of international flights running at 44 per cent of 2019 levels.

One option is to send empty planes up in the air. These are perverse incentives. Burn cash, dump emissions and, in return, keep hold of valuable slots at busy airports.

Dissent over the administrative system of slot allocation, which has governed the industry for 70-plus years, is growing. The UK’s Competition and Markets Authority chafes at the grandfathering nature of allocation, which makes it hard for newcomers to acquire take-off and landing slots at the busiest airports.

In the US, the Federal Aviation Administration sought to auction slots at New York airports before its plans were kiboshed by the courts in 2009. China experimented with both an auction (Guangzhou) and a lottery (Shanghai) almost a decade later.

Slots are in effect free — although airlines invest in accompanying infrastructure and marketing services. But a secondary market gives a glimpse of their inherent value. Air New Zealand last year sold its slot at London Heathrow for $27m. Kenya Airways sold a pair of slots at the same airport to Oman Air in 2016 for a reported $75m.

Industry body Iata argues that the global, connected nature of flights rules out alternative means of allocation. But it is worth persevering. Auctions work in other areas, such as spectrum allocation. At the very least, they beat sending ghost planes up in the air.

(Makor) UMG update

Since UMG’s IPO on Sep 21, UMG is up 0.9% while WMG is up 7.6%

When discussing UMG’s potential valuation prior to the IPO, investors were all using WMG as a reference

The debate was about the premium at which UMG would be trading

Well, UMG core business (excluding stakes in Vevo, SPOT and TME) is now trading at an 8% discount to WMG’s multiple as UMG has not enjoyed the same performance as WMG lately

UMG has now released its first set of results and there is a decent consensus on its EBITDA 21E so we should not expect any surprises (the lowest estimate of €1,777 is 2.4% below the mean of €1,820 used in my calculations)

 

UMG should catch up to WMG’s valuation at some point

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Makor) MF FP Q3 - SOP update

Wendel released Q3 results this morning

CIX updated: H-MF%

 

  • Updated NAV released, discount of 37.8% on NAV
  • Company indicating that the Dulux price for Cromologie was done at a valuation E369m above Wendel's valuation in its NAV
  • MF acquired a 24.9% stake in TKTT FP for E222m

 

They justify -2.4% drop in NAV since June 30 as due to "principally as a result of the valuation gap between the first trading days of IHS vs. the June 30 Net Asset Value" so they had higher valuation in accounts for IHS.

 

Updated SOP below

 

 


a quick update on IHS

  • IHS is trading at an implied 7.0x EV/EBITDA 21E multiple
  • This is a 45% discount to HTWS
  • HTWS is the cheapest peer but it is obviously even more of a discount when looking at a basket of the 4 independent Towers peers

 

People must be worried of MTN’s comments that they will use their stake to reduce debt and invest into their core business (i.e. sell most of it)

The stock may also be experiencing some flowback from other shareholders who were sellers into the IPO

 

It is due a bounce at some point as It does not make much sense from a valuation standpoint

 

 

 

 

>>> US Close Dow +0.68% S&P +0.98% Nasdaq +1.39% Russell +2.02%

Closing Stock Market Summary

The S&P 500 (+1.0%) and Nasdaq Composite (+1.4%) rallied to record closes on Thursday, bolstered by better-than-expected earnings reports, mega-cap strength, and infrastructure optimism. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.7% while the Russell 2000 rose 2.0%. The Nasdaq also set an intraday record high. 

Most companies continued to exceed expectations for the third quarter, and the good news seemed to rub off on Apple (AAPL 152.57, +3.72, +2.5%) and Amazon.com (AMZN 3446.57, +54.08, +1.6%) in front of their earnings reports after the close. Unlike yesterday, the gains were distributed beyond the mega-caps.

All 11 S&P 500 sectors closed higher with gains ranging from 0.3% (communication services) to 1.5% (real estate). The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP 158.04, +1.59) gained 1.0% after falling 1.3% yesterday. Advancing issues outpaced declining issues by more than a 2:1 margin at the NYSE. 

Dow components Merck (MRK 86.55, +5.01, +6.1%) and Caterpillar (CAT 204.09, +7.96, +4.1%) were two earnings standouts along with Ford Motor (F 16.86, +1.35, +8.7%). MasterCard (MA 333.03, -2.69, -0.8%) and Comcast (CMCSA 51.90, -0.54, -1.0%), however, failed to excite shareholders with their EPS beats. 

Separately, Facebook (FB 316.92, +4.70, +1.5%) confirmed a name change to "Meta" and a ticker change to "MVRS," starting Dec. 1.  

On infrastructure, President Biden announced the framework for the $1.75 trillion budget reconciliation bill that he urged Congress to support. While Democrats remained divided on the bill, investors were hopeful that an agreement could happen soon so that the House could vote on the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill. 

The market also reacted positively to mixed economic data: real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.0% in the third quarter (consensus 2.4%), according to the advance estimate, while initial claims were 281,000 (consensus 291,000) for a new post-pandemic low. 

Underscoring the slowdown in the third quarter, real final sales of domestic product, which exclude the change in private inventories, were down 0.1% after increasing 8.1% in the second quarter. The silver lining, however, was that headline print was better than feared by some accounts and the news was backwards-looking. 

The 2-yr yield increased two basis points to 0.50% after peaking at 1.56% overnight, and the 10-yr yield increased four basis points to 1.57%. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.5% to 93.37. WTI crude futures ($82.79/bbl, +0.11, +0.1%) settled little changed.

Reviewing Thursday's economic data:

  • The Advance Q3 GDP report indicated real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.0% (consensus 2.4%), down noticeably from the 6.7% growth rate reported for the second quarter, as personal spending growth decelerated to just 1.6% from 12.0% in the second quarter. The GDP Price Deflator was up 5.7% (consensus 5.5%) after increasing 6.1% in the second quarter.
    • The key takeaway from the report is that it was weaker than meets the eye. Real final sales of domestic product, which exclude the change in private inventories, were down 0.1% after increasing 8.1% in the second quarter. That was the weakest showing since the second quarter of 2020.
  • For the week ending October 23, initial claims declined by 10,000 to 281,000 (consensus 291,000), marking the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020. Continuing claims for the week ending October 16 decreased by 237,000 to 2.243 million, which was also the lowest level since March 14, 2020.
    • The key takeaway from the report rests in the improving trend in jobless claims, which is what should be seen when taking into account the massive number of job openings and the recurring acknowledgment of labor constraints heard from companies reporting earnings.
  • Pending home sales decreased 2.3% m/m in September (consensus 1.0%) following an unrevised 8.1% increase in August.

Looking ahead to Friday, investors will receive Personal Income and Spending for September, PCE Prices for September, the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for October, the Employment Cost Index for the third quarter, and the Chicago PMI for October.  

  • S&P 500 +22.4% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite +19.9% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +16.7% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +16.4% YTD