- June 2021 — Bukele announces at a Miami crypto convention that he will make bitcoin an official currency. Less than a week later, his promise is passed into Salvadoran law.
- July — Moody’s downgrades the country’s debt from “high” to “very high” credit risk, citing risks to debt-relief talks with the IMF. IMF directors gently warn that making bitcoin official currency is “inadvisable”.
- August — Anti-bitcoin protests rage in San Salvador, the country’s capital.
- September — Bukele announces the state has bought the dip to the amount of 400 bitcoin, then worth about $21m. Bitcoin legal tender law comes into force.
- November — Bukele plots a $1bn bitcoin bond issuance, to fund a low-tax “bitcoin city” abutting the coastal Conchagua volcano. The IMF sternly warns against the bitcoin law.
- December — El Salvador buys its 1,391st bitcoin by one estimate. Purportedly this was done on Bukele’s phone.
- January 2022 — Bukele meets with Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, with many expecting him to evangelise for bitcoin amid Turkey’s lira crisis.
Now, it seems that they’re not as responsive. We ourselves can say that our communication channels have deteriorated with the government since the downgrade.
You see a lot of the fiscal data not being as accessible as before. The ministry of finance website has become more confusing. It’s become harder to access any fiscal data. And on the central bank website, we are starting to see some data series drop off and not being maintained.
After Hours Summary: LLNW +6% rises while NFLX -20%, RBBN -17% decline on earnings/guidanceAfter Hours Gainers:
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: LLNW +6.4%, NBHC +0.8% (also increased quarterly dividend)
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: KURA +4.3% (received FDA authorization to proceed with KOMET-001 Phase 1b study)
After Hours Losers:
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: NFLX -20.0%, RBBN -17.1%, ISRG -5.4%, PPG -3.5%, CSX -2.3%
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: SNPO -5.6% (announced acquisition of Staub Electronics), ROKU -5.1% (lower in sympathy with NFLX results), DIS -3.9% (lower in sympathy with NFLX results), HOOD -1.3% (announced launch of roll-out of crypto Wallets to waitlist), PRDO -1.1% (appointed Andrew Hurst as CEO), PTON -0.9% (extends volatility after closing lower by 24%; to delay opening of Ohio factory, according to NY Post)
SPX Today SPX this weekClosing Stock Market SummaryThe S&P 500 declined 1.1% on Thursday in another disappointing session, as investors doubled down on the inclination to sell into strength. The benchmark index faded a 1.5% gain and closed the session down 7.0% from its all-time high.
The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.3% after being up 2.1% intraday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.9% after being up 1.3% intraday. The Russell 2000 fell 1.9% after being up 2.0% intraday.
Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors closed lower after all 11 traded in positive territory in the morning. The consumer discretionary (-1.9%), materials (-1.4%), and information technology (-1.3%) sectors led the retreat, while the utilities sector (+0.1%) eked out a gain.
The bullish bias in the morning was attributed to a belief that the market was oversold on a short-term basis and was due for a bounce. Both the Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 entered the session in correction territory, or down at least 10% from a recent high.
Investors waited a little longer than yesterday to sell into strength, which ultimately diminished confidence in the market and scared away potential buyers on the fear that the dip will keep on dipping. The S&P 500 briefly topped the 4600 level around 10:00 a.m. ET before running into negative headlines later in the day.
Selling interest picked up after CNBC reported that Peloton (PTON 24.22, -7.62, -23.9%) is temporarily pausing production of its bikes due to waning consumer demand. Later, The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. gave approval for Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia to send arms to Ukraine.
The Peloton story served as reminder of the risks that many story stocks still face if their stories don't play out as intended. The Ukraine story was more of a negative geopolitical headline in the middle of a market downturn, meaning the market was less disturbed by the report and saw it more as a convenient selling excuse.
The latter theory was supported by the lack of a safe-haven trade in Treasuries and gold ($1842.60/ozt, unch). The 10-yr yield increased just one basis point to 1.83% while the 2-yr yield rose four basis points to 1.05% on continued expectations for a more hawkish Fed. The U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.4% to 96.85. WTI crude futures fell 0.7%, or $0.57, to $86.29/bbl.
Pivoting to earnings news, United Airlines (UAL 42.88, -1.52, -3.4%) and American Airlines (AAL 16.76, -0.55, -3.2%) were swept up in the downturn after providing cautious near-term outlooks. Travelers (TRV 165.18, +5.11, +3.2%) and Union Pacific (UNP 242.07, +2.58, +1.1%) were two earnings standouts.
Reviewing Thursday's economic data:
- Initial claims for the week ending January 15 increased by 55,000 to 286,000 (consensus 211,000) while continuing claims for the week ending January 8 increased by 84,000 to 1.635 million.
- The key takeaway from the report is that it is apt to be construed as a sign of the negative impact the Omicron variant is having on the labor market since it is the highest initial claims number since October; moreover, this report includes the week in which the survey for the January employment report was conducted, so the higher print could dial down expectations for the gain in January nonfarm payrolls.
- Existing home sales declined 4.6% m/m in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.18 million ( consensus 6.42 million). Total sales in December were down 7.1% from a year ago. Total home sales in 2021, however, reached 6.12 million, which was up 8.5% year-over-year and the highest annual level since 2006.
- The key takeaway from the report is that prices remain high as inventory remains extremely tight. The supply constraint is crimping sales growth in the existing home market, as are increasing affordability pressures created by the high selling prices and rising mortgage rates.
- The Philadelphia Fed Index for January increased to 23.2 (consensus 20.0) from 15.4 in December.
Looking ahead, investors will receive the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for December on Friday.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average -4.5% YTD
- S&P 500 -6.0% YTD
- Russell 2000 -9.9% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite -9.5% YTD