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>>> Initiation
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>>> Initiation
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>>> Call
>>> Call
* Berenberg Says ProSiebenSat.1 Will Suffer From Advertising Risks (+)
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* Siemens Discount ‘Difficult to Justify,’ Morgan Stanley Upgrades
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* Softcat Raised to Buy at Berenberg on Peer Results, Cost Savings (+)
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‘They don’t know Ukraine’ Zelensky advisor Mykhailo Podolyak on Kyiv’s ‘cautious optimism’ about the negotiations with Russia
Link : https://bit.ly/3izgMVD
After three weeks of all-out war, Ukrainian officials have begun to show “a degree of cautious optimism” about the talks underway with Russia. On March 16, Ukrainian presidential advisor Oleksiy Arestovych even suggested that Kyiv “should reach an agreement with Russia now or within a week or two.” In a special interview for Meduza, Kit journalist Elizaveta Antonova spoke with Mykhailo Podolyak — an advisor to President Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff, who has been taking part in the negotiations. Here’s how he assessed the prospects of a peace deal.
Please note. The following interview has been edited and abridged for length and clarity. You can read the full Q&A in Russian here.
Why is the Ukrainian President’s Office “optimistic” about the negotiations?
The Russian Federation proceeded to wage this war on the basis of specific analysis. After fighting for 21 days, [Russia] is already assessing the damage that it’s inflicting, primarily on itself, in a different way. During this time, [the Russian leadership] has become much more realistic in assessing, among other things, their negotiating platform and those risks they will continue to face. This change in rhetoric and behavior causes us a degree of cautious optimism.
We really see a desire to reach some kind of compromise draft agreement — I’m not saying “peace agreement” yet. They certainly weren’t expecting the standing Russia has acquired in the world, the negative response, or the unified package [of sanctions] that has been imposed on them. All of this brings them back to real politics. Where Ukraine is right and makes completely reasonable demands: a ceasefire and for all [Russian] troops to withdraw to the positions they held before February 24. Then we can discuss certain things — including political and humanitarian [issues].
Meduza
With the standing Russia now has, it’s no longer to discuss these things in terms of ultimatums. Whether we will [reach an agreement] in two days or in two weeks is a tactical question. But there’s an understanding on their side of the correctness of some of our logical arguments.
How has Russia adjusted its demands?
They’ve adjusted them on the whole. Even in public statements. You’ve [probably] noticed how the rhetoric of Russian political figures has changed. At first, they even publicly said, “We’ll bring everyone to their knees in two days, we’ll destroy the Nazis right now.” Of course, we were shocked by this, because it’s a completely distorted view of what was actually happening in Ukraine. These public statements in the first week and a half were some kind of hysterics. Now, we’re hearing much more moderate, restrained, and realistic [statements]. Their general approach has become much more down to earth, so to speak.
At the same time, in the space of 21 days, the invasion has made all of Ukraine totally anti-Russian. This will be a problem for us. If before 30 to 40 percent of the population had a rather neutral or even somewhat positive attitude towards the Russian Federation, and were prepared for some kind of dialogue, then after this “special operation” — that was thought up by very “talented” military leaders and analysts — 99 percent of Ukraine’s population has become totally anti-Russian. Now, of course, all of these humanitarian problems, language problems, and so forth, will be very difficult to discuss.
In general, this [all] looks very strange. The Russian Federation has invaded [Ukraine]. But there’s a paradox: they didn’t bomb Western Ukraine — the main devastating blows have been to cities in Eastern Ukraine, where, before February 24, there really were more or less pro-Russian sentiments. They carried out massive airstrikes on residential neighborhoods where the Russian-speaking population lives. Do you see the absurdity? “We’ll make you fall in love with the Russian language by bombing [you].” It just looks ridiculous.
Russia-Ukraine negotiations in the Gomel region of Belarus. February 28, 2022.
Sergei Kholodilin / BELTA / AFP / Scanpix / LETA
Which demands has Russia rejected?
Mr. Medinsky [Vladimir Medinsky, Russia’s former Culture Minister and the head of the Russian delegation at the negotiations] has already announced some models. Although we agreed not to announce anything until we have 90 percent agreement on everything. But Russia, as always, is playing some games to its own detriment.
The main thing for us is that it’s fundamentally not just a peace agreement — this doesn’t suit us. And the old security system, where NATO played a dominant role, doesn’t suit us either. We were moving towards NATO, we were, in fact, their junior partner. During the war we needed advisory assistance — or at least the possibility of accelerated weapons purchases. Then, on February 25 [the day after Russia invaded], NATO didn’t even invite us to their summit. They were afraid. And [now] we understand that this entire post-war security architecture doesn’t work in Europe anymore. The OSCE [like NATO] is also failing to provide security.
We have a formula that we’ve put on the negotiating table — a Ukrainian model of security guarantees. It suggests that there will be no bilateral agreement between Russia and Ukraine, but rather a multilateral agreement, a package agreement that a number of countries will take part in — their number is still being discussed. [But it will be] five to seven countries.
How important is it for Kyiv that a future agreement on security guarantees for Ukraine involve nuclear powers like France, the UK, and the United States?
Very important. Unfortunately, today it’s impossible to predict how the Russian political elite are making decisions. So if Ukraine manages to form a new alliance, we want it to accurately respond to all modern risks. After all, we will be at its center as a country that has come under attack. We want our partner countries that sign this agreement with us to have the same capabilities as the Russian Federation. Both in terms of conventional and nuclear weapons.
In addition, we’re suggesting a Swiss model for the army, with a certain number of reserves that undergo continuous training. This is the best model for a country like Ukraine with a neutral status. The details are still being discussed.
Clearly this new alliance is impossible without the involvement of the United States, correct?
Of course. Consultations are underway with a number of countries, and President Zelensky is in constant communication with Joe Biden, among others. Some of our closest partners are really interested in this. I would very much like to note the efforts of Turkey, Poland, and Israel. Despite the fact that there’s a rather difficult situation in the region and that it [would be] very sensitive for Israel if Russia were to increase its support for Iran or Hamas, Israel is nevertheless taking on the role of an active mediator.
Against the backdrop of the war, Ukraine now understands how joint defense should work in such situations. I think that many will like it — and many will join this new type of alliance.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressing the U.S. Congress. March 16, 2022.
Drew Angerer / AFP / Scanpix / LETA
The Financial Times reported that Ukraine and Russia had drafted a 15-point peace plan that includes a ceasefire and the withdrawal of Russian troops, Ukraine declaring neutral status and reducing the size of its army, and Kyiv refusing to join NATO.
There aren’t 15 points. There are key, basic points: the end of the war, a ceasefire and the withdrawal of troops, security [guarantees] for Ukraine. Everything else is little extras. There are still territorial discussions, but they will be the subject of [separate] negotiations between the presidents, because these are painful issues.
As for refusing one thing or another — this is some very strange inside information, I don’t know where people get it.
What key aspects are non-negotiable for Ukraine?
The key aspects are a ceasefire, an immediate withdrawal of troops, and the signing of an agreement that has security guarantees — and where a number of countries will act as guarantors. Within the framework of this package, there will be an agreement with the Russian Federation that it also undertakes to guarantee Ukraine that there won’t be future wars. Russia has to understand the risks it will face next time. Without this, it makes no sense to end the war.
If we sign a bilateral agreement with Russia [then what]? After all, what’s the problem with the Russian Federation? Just a few days ago, Mr. Lavrov [Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov] said, in all seriousness, that “Russia never attacks anyone — and never attacked Ukraine either.” These people’s worldview is so warped. He’s on air on a European television channel and says, in all seriousness, “We aren’t attacking Ukraine.”
What we probably need is for people all over the world not to be afraid and to respond to this [and say]: “Mr. Lavrov, you are telling a lie. This means we shouldn’t have direct relations with you. You can’t come here even as foreign minister. Because you’re lying.” This would probably be an effective tool for returning the Russian elite to an honest position.
International diplomats perform a walk out during Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s speech to the United Nations Human Rights Council. Geneva, Switzerland, March 1, 2022.
Salvatore di Nolfi / EPA / Scanpix / LETA
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the topic of sanctions came up at the talks. The head of the Russian delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, also said this is one of the key topics of negotiations at each meeting. Is Moscow asking Kyiv for help lifting Western sanctions?
Moscow’s position is obvious. Undoubtedly, the sanctions packages imposed by European countries, the United States, and adhering states are extremely painful for Russia. I think that the sanctions policy is working brilliantly and really makes [them] think.
But there are two points here. First, Ukraine isn’t the one imposing the sanctions and so we can’t lift them. Second, the war is being broadcast live, there are thousands of foreign journalists working on it, drones are flying, everyone can see that Russian troops are killing civilians. It’s all being recorded. These are already proven, legally recorded crimes. I don’t understand why the world, seeing these crimes, would lift these sanctions.
The Russian Federation has to understand that you can’t simultaneously deploy soldiers who violate the rules of war and fight against civilians, and at the same time calmly demand that the sanctions be lifted tomorrow.
This is a difficult negotiation process. Of course, we’ll take part in it. These sanctions were imposed by the global community, not by Ukraine. In addition, lifting these sanctions should depend on specific actions: even if you withdraw troops, you’ve already destroyed a certain amount of infrastructure, let’s take this into account.
The Kremlin considers Crimea part of Russia, and now it also recognizes the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk “People’s Republics” as independent states. Is Kyiv prepared to make at least some concessions or compromises in this area?
This is the negotiating position they have requested. For us, Ukraine’s territorial integrity is inviolable. For us, these territories are de jure the ARK [the Autonomous Republic of Crimea] and the ORDLO [a Ukrainian abbreviation that stands for “certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions”]. We don’t know what “LDNR” [an abbreviation for the self-proclaimed “Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics”] is. For us, these territories are still legally part of Ukraine.
But we have temporarily lost effective control of [these territories], and they’re under Russian administration now. This is the status quo, I’m prepared to name it — but, I repeat once again, we can’t voice our positions in the negotiations as of yet. Unlike the Russians, we adhere to agreements.
What do you think about Medinsky as the key negotiator from Russia? Why, in your opinion, did Vladimir Putin choose him?
I’m definitely not ready to talk about the motivations behind the composition of the Russian delegation. But I can say that Mr. Medinsky is extremely constructive, he’s intellectual, and he evaluates [our] arguments, he listens to [our] arguments. Perhaps you’ve historically perceived him differently, as the culture minister — I’m not prepared to give an assessment here, this is your domestic politics. But in the negotiation process I would say he behaves emphatically correctly and properly. He understands [our] arguments — this is very important.
Medinsky said that the key issues for Russia are the status of Crimea and the Donbas, as well as “denazification.” What are your thoughts on this?
These issues can be discussed, they’re on the table, [but] not in this form, of course. The wording differs significantly. However, these are all the negotiating positions of the Russian Federation. Ukraine has its own point of view on all of these points. But these are very subtle matters, we’ll express our vision when the Ukrainian delegation believes that a compromised position has been reached.
Are the humanitarian corridors for evacuating civilians working now?
There’s a subgroup that deals with humanitarian corridors, there’s a subgroup of the Russian Federation [and] there’s the Red Cross, which acts as an intermediary. Some of the corridors are working, we’re taking people out of some places. And some of the corridors — for example, in Mariupol — are not working.
There must be some personal reasons for turning this city into ruins — into total ruins, like Aleppo — and driving people to madness. Probably, it’s some kind of tactical idea from the Russian Defense Ministry’s General Staff. What they’re doing there is beyond comprehension. They encircled the city, invented some story about Nazi battalions. And they’re bombing this city every day. Almost everything has been destroyed already, and people have no opportunity to get out.
Our Deputy Prime Minister [Iryna] Vereshchuk is working on the humanitarian corridors very intensively. And on prisoner exchanges, too. Because the number of captured Russian soldiers is also inconceivable. There’s more than 500–600 men. We also can’t give you the bodies of your soldiers, they’re lying in the fields, because the hostilities don’t stop.
The Russian Federation hardly has any concern for either the search for the dead, or the exchange of prisoners, or humanitarian corridors so that people don’t have problems with food, water, and medicines. This is very strange. After all, everything is being recorded. We really can’t understand it. Yes, it’s war, but aren’t there some rules?
Did you offer to exchange these 500 prisoners of war?
We’ve made constant offers within the framework of the working group to remove the bodies and do an all-for-all [prisoner] exchange. The Russian Federation is acting as it always does — it pretends to agree to something, and then it begins…
On March 16, Zelensky addressed the U.S. Congress and asked, among other things, for the establishment of a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Aren’t you afraid that this will provoke Russia to act more forcefully, including by using nuclear forces?
Of course it’s a bit of a fantastic story. We still think that we’ll reach a peace agreement, a package of solutions. Because the war is extremely destructive for Russia. And [it would be] a hundred times more destructive if tactical nuclear weapons were used. In principle, it would be desirable for European politicians to stop thinking that [the Russian Army] is such a big threat. May they make some responsible decisions.
Close the sky, let civilians stop dying, if there’s still war — okay, let there be war. At least it [would be] a war between armies. Let [Russia] prove that it knows how to fight, and not just how to bomb peaceful cities. That’s all we want. Close the sky — let the guys come down to earth at long last! That said, they’re very skillful at fighting with cruise missiles. They probably put a star on their shoulder boards for bombing Kharkiv’s city center.
Everyone who regularly watches Zelensky’s video messages pays attention to his appearance…Is he getting any sleep? And in general, how do you work in a city that’s under fire?
Mr. Zelensky allocates his time very carefully, he’s an extremely effective manager. He, simultaneously, effectively manages defense initiatives and the military economy, for example — and he’s already thinking about how to rebuild the country. He also spends part of time keeping himself in good shape. But we’re all getting little sleep. This is war. [We get] two, three, four hours. Our sirens are constantly going off in the city. We’re always in work mode because operational management in wartime is not quite the same as in peacetime. You can't exactly sit down in a restaurant with a cocktail. Our restaurants aren’t even open.
Finally, a question about Putin. Do you think the invasion of Ukraine was the result of his preoccupation with history?
To be honest, I’m not ready to analyze the motivations behind your leaders’ conduct. I understand that in Russia people often draw conclusions without knowing the facts. But I don’t know what [information] they relied on, I don’t know where they get their analysis, or what they read. For me it’s a completely different reality. All of their assessments were based on initially false operational information. They don’t know Ukraine.
EDF announces the launch and the terms of a share capital increase for an amount of more than 3.1 billion euros with preferential subscription rights
KEY TERMS OF THE TRANSACTION
- Subscription ratio: 2existing shares13new shares for
- Subscription price: 6.35euros per new share
- Theoretical valueof the preferential subscription right: 0.34 euros
- Trading period of the preferential subscription rights: from21 MarchinclusiveMarch 202230to
- Subscription period: fromApril 2022inclusiveMarch to 123
- Rights issue results: 5 April2022
- Settlement-delivery and listing of the new shares onEuronext Paris: 7 April 2022
- Subscription commitment: subscription of the French State proportional to its 83.88%billion eurosstake in EDF share capital, representing a subscription commitment of approximately2.7
DAX:
- Brenntag (BNR TH) +0.9%
- Vonovia (VNA TH) +0.9%
- Vonovia Sees 2022 FFO EU2B to EU2.1B
- Delivery Hero (DHER TH) +0.5%
- Puma (PUM TH) +0.5%
- Siemens (SIE TH) +0.5%
- Siemens Discount ‘Difficult to Justify,’ Morgan Stanley Upgrades
- RWE (RWE TH) -0.6%
- BASF (BAS TH) -0.7%
- Deutsche Post (DPW TH) -0.9%
- Watch Mail-Delivery Stocks After FedEx’s ‘Jarring’ Earnings Miss
MDAX:
- CompuGroup (COP TH) +2.6%
- Fraport (FRA TH) +2.5%
- Fraport Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 60 euros
- Rheinmetall (RHM TH) +2.3%
- Bechtle (BC8 TH) +1.2%
- Uniper (UN01 TH) +1.1%
- Evonik (EVK TH) -0.5%
- Lufthansa (LHA TH) -0.5%
- Telefonica Deutschland (O2D TH) -0.8%
- Fuchs Petrolub (FPE3 TH) -0.9%
- Fuchs Petrolub FY Ebit Beats Estimates
- K+S (SDF TH) -1.1%
SDAX:
- Synlab (SYAB TH) +2.8%
- flatexDEGIRO (FTK TH) +1.5%
- Traton (8TRA TH) +1.4%
- Global Fashion Group (GFG TH) +1.2%
- Schaeffler (SHA TH) +1%
- Heidelberger Druck (HDD TH) -1%
- Grenke (GLJ TH) -1%
U.S. equity futures slipped Friday and Asian stocks were steady as traders weighed mixed signals from the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine that are pushing oil further above $100 a barrel. European contracts wavered and those for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 dipped following the best three-day rally in U.S. shares since 2020. An Asian equity gauge made modest gains. Chinese technology stocks came off session lows and mainland shares pushed higher, aided by Beijing’s vow this week to create market stability. There was speculation that the nation’s central bank may soon ease monetary policy. The war in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia continue to shape sentiment. JPMorgan Chase & Co. processed funds for interest payments due on Russian government dollar bonds, easing some fears of a default. Oil extended a surge after the Kremlin cast doubt on how much progress ongoing cease-fire talks are making. The war has severely disrupted Russian crude flows. The Pentagon warned Russian President Vladimir Putin may threaten to use nuclear weapons if the conflict drags on. Treasuries and the dollar were steady and commodity-linked currencies strengthened. The yen slid to around its weakest point versus the greenback in six years after the Bank of Japan stuck with its dovish policy stance. Global stocks have rebounded in recent days, putting them on course for their best week since November 2020. That suggests some of the worst fears about the inflationary commodity shock and hit to confidence from the war have eased. At the same time, the continued fighting and tightening Federal Reserve monetary policy point to the likelihood of more cross-asset swings ahead. investors were also evaluating Xi’s pledge to reduce the economic impact of his Covid-fighting measures. The move may signal a shift in a longstanding strategy that has minimized fatalities but weighed heavily on China’s economy. US After Hours FDX -2.7% and GME -9.1% lower on earnings; X -3.2% weak guidance dragging down steel names; STNE +21.2% jumps on earnings
Nikkei +0.65% Hang Seng -0.06% CSI +0.67% Shanghai +1.12% Shenzen +0.56%
Eur$ 1.1079 CNH 6.3693 CNY 6.3562 JPY 118.95 GBP 1.3152 CHF 0.9378 RUB 103.36 TRY 14.7848 WTI$ 105.69 +2.60% Gold 1,933.88 -0.46% BTC 40,700 -0.02% ETH 2795 -0.50%
S&P -0.49% Nasdaq -0.73% EuroStoxx -0.06% FTSE +0.32% Dax -0.20% SMI +0.25%
Macro :
- JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Says Market Bubble Corrections Almost Done
- Draghi Sets Italy’s Exit From Covid Rules in European Reopening
Keep an eye on :
Keep an eye on :
- AIR FP : Airbus Says Improved U.K. Pay Offer Rejected by Workers
- AIR FP : Airbus to Buy CO2 Credits From Unit of Shale Giant Occidental
- BANB SW : Bachem FY Sales Misses Estimates
- BEN FP : Beneteau FY Ebitda Beats Estimates
- CARLB DC : Carlsberg Bonds Worth Buying Even If Russia’s Lost, Danske Says
- CWC GY : Cewe Stiftung Won’t Renew Contract of CEO Christian Friege
- CFN PL : Cofina FY Net Income EU4.23M Vs. EU1.59M Y/y
- DUFN SW : Dufry Gets Two 5yr Concession Contracts at Mexico City Airport
- EDF FP : EDF Launches Rights Issue for More Than EU3.1b
- EDF FP : Macron Says French State Should Take Over Some EDF Assets (2)
- ENEL IM : Enel FY Div EU0.38/Shr, +6.1% Y/Y,
- ERICB SS : Ericsson’s $3.3 Billion of Bonds Inch Toward Junk After S&P Move
- FLS DC : FLSmidth Suspends Polyus Order Pending Sanctions Review: Finans
- FPE GY : Fuchs Petrolub FY Ebit Beats Estimates
- INDUA SS : Industrivarden Buys Further 2m Volvo Shares
- INRN SW : Interroll FY Ebitda Misses Estimates
- LISN SW : Lindt Group CEO Weisskopf to Retire Towards the End of 2022
- MBG GY : Mercedes Opens Shanghai R&D Center With Focus on Self-Driving
- MNG LN : M&G Buys 30 Japanese Residential Assets for $424m
- PIRC IM : Pirelli to Progressively Halt Factory Activity in Russia
- PUB FP : AB InBev has awarded Publicis with its U.S. and European media buying and planning business. https
- REC IM : Recordati Says Targets May Be Updated on Ukraine, EUSA Pharma
- SIFG NA : SIF FY Revenue Misses Estimates
- STLA IM : Maserati Says Entire Range Will Be Full Electric by 2030
- STLA IM : Maserati Says Entire Range Will Be Full Electric by 2030
- TED LN : Sycamore Working on Potential Bid for Ted Baker, Sky Reports
- TEL NO : Telenor: Sale of Telenor Myanmar Approved by Myanmar Authorities
- VOLVB SS : Industrivarden Buys Further 2m Volvo Shares
- VNA GY : Vonovia Sees 2022 FFO EU2B to EU2.1B
- WBD IM : Webuild FY Adj Rev EU6.7B vs EU5B in 2020
- MF FP : Wendel Net Asset Value per Share EU188.10
After Hours Summary: FDX -2.7% and GME -9.1% lower on earnings; X -3.2% weak guidance dragging down steel names; STNE +21.2% jumps on earningsAfter Hours Gainers:
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: STNE +21.2% (also announces executive hires), CURV +2.5%
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: TMC +4.3% (signs term sheet for development of commercial system to collect deep-sea polymetallic nodules), GLDD +1.5% (receives several dredging awards totaling $132.3 mln), PRGO +0.6% (receives final approval from FDA for OTC use of Nasonex 24HR Allergy), UDR +0.1% (increases dividend), CLB +0.1% (CLB announces strategic alliance with TALO)
After Hours Losers:
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: BBAI -24%, GME -9.1%, EMBK -9%, JOAN -5.7%, X -3.2% (guides Q1 EPS below consensus), AVPT -3% (also announces $150 mln share repurchase program), FDX -2.7%, SCHN -1.1% (guides FebQ EPS below consensus)
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: OR -4.5% (announces $250 mln bought deal financing agreement), ABR -3.9% (announces 6 mln share offering), AM -1.7% (files mixed securities shelf offering), CLF -1.6% (in sympathy with weak X guidance), AMRX -1.4% (awarded sub-license to make generic version of nirmatrelvir), WULF -1% (reports progress on building out mining operations), NUE -0.7% (in sympathy with weak X guidance), LXRX -0.5% (enters into loan facility to support commercialization of sotagliflozin), TRGP -0.4% (to acquire Southcross Energy for $200 mln), STLD -0.3% (in sympathy with weak X guidance), ARIS -0.2% (expands alliance with TPL), BCO -0.1% (names new CEO)