>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 13th of December 2022

>>> Up
* BP Raised to Add at AlphaValue/Baader
* Chr. Hansen Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT 550 kroner
* Chr. Hansen Raised to Neutral at Exane
* Elior Group Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 4.10 euros
* Neoen Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 47 euros
* Richemont Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 116 Swiss francs

>>> Down
* Bpost Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 7 euros
* Danone Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse
* EMS-Chemie Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 700 Swiss francs
* Erste Cut to Underperform at KBW; PT 32.10 euros
* Hermes Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 1,555 euros
* Kojamo Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 15.50 euros
* Novozymes Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 430 kroner
* Reckitt Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse
* Sanoma Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 11.50 euros
* SKF Cut to Sell at UBS; PT 150 kronor
* Tinybuild Cut at Liberum on ‘Concerning’ Hello Neighbor 2 Data

>>> Initiation
* Domino's Pizza Group Rated New Buy at Panmure Gordon
* EDP Renovaveis Rated New Buy at Mirabaud Securities; PT 25 euros
* Eni Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT 19.10 euros
* Network International Assumed Buy at Jefferies
* Nexi Assumed Hold at Jefferies
* Orron Energy Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 27 kronor
* Wise Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT 624 pence
* Worldline Assumed Hold at Jefferies

>>> Call
* Adyen Top EU Payments Pick at Jefferies, Wise Started at Hold
* Elior Group Raised to Buy at Citi on Route Toward Deleveraging
* EMS-Chemie Cut With Weak 4Q and Tough Start to 2023 Seen: Stifel
* Erste Sentiment Too Optimistic, KBW Downgrades to Underperform
* Reckitt and Danone Cut as CS Positions in EU Staples for 2023
* Rolls-Royce Placed on Negative Catalyst Watch at JPMorgan

WSJ : China Says It Has Taken U.S. Semiconductor Rules to WTO

China Says It Has Taken U.S. Semiconductor Rules to WTO
Beijing challenges Washington’s export controls, considering them trade protectionism

China’s Ministry of Commerce said Monday it had filed a complaint against the U.S. at the World Trade Organization in response to new controls from Washington on semiconductor trade with China, describing the action as a response to trade protectionism.

Beijing will use the WTO’s dispute settlement mechanism to challenge U.S. export controls on products such as chips to China to defend its rights and interests, its Ministry of Commerce said in a statement posted to its website. The ministry said it was responding to a media question in making the announcement.

The rules being challenged require U.S. chip makers to obtain a license from the Commerce Department to export certain chips used in advanced artificial-intelligence calculations and supercomputing.

Biden administration officials have said that the rules are needed to prevent China from building up its military and developing new, state-of-the-art weaponry.

In its statement, the Chinese Commerce Ministry said that in recent years the U.S. has expanded its concept of national security, abused export-control measures, hindered the normal international trade of semiconductors and other products, threatened the stability of the global industrial supply chain and taken other steps that disrupt the international economy. It said the U.S. actions violate international trade rules and laws, harming global peace and that the U.S. has conflated economic development and trade protectionism with its activity.

The statement urged the U.S. to abandon what it called zero-sum thinking and correct its mistakes in a timely manner and otherwise take steps to put trade between the countries on a normal footing and add stability to international supply chains.

A spokesman for the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative confirmed that the U.S. has received a request for consultations from the People’s Republic of China related to certain U.S. actions affecting semiconductors. “As we have already communicated to the PRC, these targeted actions relate to national security, and the WTO is not the appropriate forum to discuss issues related to national security,” he said.

The filing of the new complaint follows a ruling by WTO panels last week that the U.S. violated international trade rules with its tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. The case relates to the import duties former President Donald Trump imposed in 2018 on national-security grounds, citing the need to protect domestic manufacturers from a global glut of metals caused by China.

The complaint was initially filed by China, but friendly nations such as Switzerland and Norway are among the complainants. The U.S. said it strongly rejected the panels’ “flawed interpretation and conclusions,” and hinted it would appeal the decision. The U.S. also said the WTO panel have no authority to review national security issues.

WTO member countries have been stepping up discussions to overhaul the group’s dispute-settlement system, but their positions remain far apart.

FT : Lars Windhorst offered La Perla role to H2O chief’s wife

Lars Windhorst offered La Perla role to H2O chief’s wife
Asset manager was pouring investors’ money into financier’s ventures when post was proposed

Lars Windhorst offered a position at his luxury lingerie brand La Perla to the wife of the chief executive of H2O Asset Management, which was pouring its investors’ money into the controversial financier’s ventures.

The proposal, which was first made in 2019, months before the Financial Times exposed the scale of H2O’s exposure to Windhorst, underscores the close relationship that blossomed between the German financier and H2O’s chief executive Bruno Crastes.

France’s financial regulator last month recommended banning Crastes from the investment industry for a decade, fining him €15mn and levying a record €75mn fine against H2O for what it described as “grave” rule breaches related to the firm’s extensive investments in illiquid bonds tied to Windhorst.

In early 2019, Windhorst invited the H2O chief’s wife, Laurence Crastes, to head a planned flagship store in Monaco, according to five people familiar with the arrangement. Mrs Crastes subsequently visited La Perla’s headquarters in the Italian city of Bologna, and researched several suitable locations for the proposed new shop and shared her findings with La Perla.

Mrs Crastes, who is not accused of any wrongdoing, was not remunerated by La Perla for her efforts and did not end up taking an official position at the company, according to two of the people. Plans to open La Perla’s Monaco store were ultimately shelved.

Months after Windhorst made his offer, H2O was plunged into crisis when the FT revealed that it held more than €1bn of illiquid bonds linked to the German, who has presided over several bankruptcies and previously received a suspended prison sentence in his home country.

French regulators last month disclosed that H2O’s chief investment officer, Vincent Chailley, also raised concerns about the firm’s exposure to Windhorst’s business in the summer of 2018.

A spokesman for Windhorst said “he did not offer any role or job or anything to Mrs Crastes”. H2O, Crastes and La Perla declined to comment.

Windhorst’s investment company, Tennor, acquired the heavily indebted La Perla for €1 in 2018 from Silvio Scaglia, an Italian entrepreneur who had previously sued the German financier for allegedly failing to settle bond trades. The case was settled out of court.

H2O that year bought more than €300mn of the €500mn bonds that Windhorst raised against the heavily lossmaking business. La Perla then listed its shares on France’s junior stock market Euronext Growth in September 2019, through a direct listing where no shares were sold to outside investors, disclosing that H2O also owned a 9.5 per cent stake in the company.

La Perla’s shares and bonds are among the assets in “side pockets” H2O established over two years ago to isolate €1.6bn of its hard-to-sell investments linked to Windhorst. Recent filings show that H2O has marked down the value of its La Perla bonds to less than 7 cents on the euro.

La Perla has yet to publish its audited annual report for 2021, previously blaming the delay on “Covid-19-related exceptional circumstances in Asia”. The company last week announced that its results for the first half of 2022 would also be delayed, attributing the hold-up to the company being in the later stages of a “restructuring and reorganisation process”.

Despite the continued absence of published financial statements, La Perla’s thinly traded shares have soared more than 70 per cent since September, giving the company a market capitalisation of €746mn. The price spike has been accompanied by a surge in volume: while on many days this year only one La Perla share has changed hands, more than 2,000 shares traded a day at some points in November.

FT : Brokers braced for big overhaul of US stock trading rules

FT : Brokers braced for big overhaul of US stock trading rules
Four SEC proposals aimed at lowering investor costs would be broadest shake-up since 2005

Banks, trading firms and brokers are bracing for the biggest overhaul of US stock trading in almost two decades with the release on Wednesday of plans designed primarily to lower costs for small investors.

The Securities and Exchange Commission is set to vote on four proposals aimed at pushing brokers and market-making firms to execute deals at the best price available — and prove this was done.

Industry executives have described the reforms as the most sweeping since 2005, when a set of rules known as Regulation National Market System also addressed conditions for small investors by modernising US equity markets.

“Potentially these could be the most significant changes to the regulation of equity market structure since regulation NMS,” said Paul Mahoney, law professor at the University of Virginia.

After the meme-stock boom of 2021, when retail traders sent the prices of a handful of stocks into the stratosphere, SEC chair Gary Gensler this year revived debate about making further changes to market rules.

Last year’s trading frenzy highlighted the practice of “payment for order flow” where popular retail brokers such as Robinhood are paid to route customer orders to big trading companies including Citadel Securities and Virtu Financial.

So-called PFOF is banned in several other jurisdictions including the UK and Canada. Gensler has warned about the risks of conflicts of interest raised by PFOF, including brokers’ use of video game-like digital features to encourage customer trading.

“There’s been at least 20 conferences that I’ve attended over the past two years where [regulation] was the only topic people wanted to talk about,” said Anthony Denier, chief executive of retail broker Webull. “It’s been discussed so much by people on either side of the PFOF fence, we are looking forward to an actual proposal or for something to actually come forward.”

The SEC is not expected to block PFOF, but the proposals could significantly curtail its use in several ways. One item on Wednesday’s agenda would require brokers to auction customers’ orders. Another item would require them to publish detailed data showing how orders were carried out.

Thomas Peterffy, chair of Interactive Brokers, said: “There is a lot of talk about how execution quality is already as good as it can be. That is very possible, but it would be reassuring for the customer to really see that it is as good as it can be. ”

If the SEC’s five commissioners vote to propose the new requirements, they will undergo to a public comment period before returning to the regulator for final approval and adoption. The plans are said to run for more than 1,000 pages, according to industry officials.

Big trading firms are expected to oppose the new auction requirement, having warned previously it could increase trading uncertainty and raise, not lower, costs for small investors.

One market maker said: “The proposals as they’ve been previewed are solutions in search of a problem. And that concern has been expressed by virtually every corner of the marketplace.”

Other rule changes on Wednesday’s agenda include cutting the price increment, or “tick size”, in which a stock can trade to less than a cent and a new standard for “best execution”, which requires brokers to ensure they have found the best price, at that time, for their client’s trade.

Stock exchanges broadly support smaller tick sizes, which they believe would help exchanges compete with other venues that already offer sub-penny trading to big wholesale investors.

SEC commissioners are also scheduled to vote on a separate final rule that would require US corporate executives to wait four months to sell shares after establishing a so-called 10b5-1 plan, according to two people familiar with the rulemaking. Such plans allow company insiders to sell shares automatically without risk of violating insider trading rules.

The new rule would end a controversial practice in which executives sell stock days after creating a plan, raising suspicion that they may have acted with inside information.

A Financial Times investigation last year found Beijing-based Cheetah Mobile chief executive Sheng Fu sold $31mn of shares a few weeks before reporting disappointing quarterly earnings. In September 2022, the SEC charged Fu with insider trading, saying that he established a trading plan knowing a big drop in advertising revenues was about to be announced.

The SEC unanimously proposed the four-month waiting period a year ago, but now at least one Republican SEC commissioner is expected to vote against the final rule, person familiar with the matter said.

>>> US After Hours Summary: ORCL +1.9%, FLNC +1.5% on earnings; RTX +1.9% on $6

After Hours Summary: ORCL +1.9%, FLNC +1.5% on earnings; RTX +1.9% on $6 bln share repurchase program; JOAN -6.6% on earnings

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: ORCL +1.9%, FLNC +1.5%, CSV +0.2% (releases FY24 financial goals)

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: KOPN +4.3% (joint tech solution with OPTAC-X and RealWear), DEN +4.3% (announce agreement for CO2 sequestration site with Weyerhaeuser), HLLY +3.7% (appoints new CFO), RTX +1.9% (authorizes $6 bln share repurchase program), NYMT +1% (names new President), PLL +1% (receives required permit to restart Quebec operations), SSRM +0.9% (positive exploration results), FSLR +0.5% (joining S&P 500)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: JOAN -6.6%, BLBD -3.3%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: LEV -12.4% (launches public offering), TRMB -4.7% (to acquire Transporeon for €1.88 bln), BMO -4.1% (public offering totaling approx. C$3.15 bln), QDEL -3.8% (separates Chairman and CEO roles), NYT -1.1% (CFO to retire next year), HUT -1% (replaces CFO), AB -0.1% (reports November AUM), META -0.1% (unplugs Connectivity division, according to TechCrunch)

Reuters : U.S. Justice Dept is split over charging Binance as crypto world falte

U.S. Justice Dept is split over charging Binance as crypto world falters, sources say

  • Some DOJ prosecutors believe evidence justifies filing charges against executives including CEO Zhao
  • DOJ officials have discussed possible plea deals with Binance's attorneys
  • Binance is under investigation for possible money laundering and criminal sanctions violations
  • Binance says it has no insight into the "inner workings of the US Justice Department"
WASHINGTON, Dec 12 (Reuters) - Splits between U.S. Department of Justice prosecutors are delaying the conclusion of a long-running criminal investigation into the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange Binance, four people familiar with the matter have told Reuters.
The investigation began in 2018 and is focused on Binance's compliance with U.S. anti-money laundering laws and sanctions, these people said. Some of the at least half dozen federal prosecutors involved in the case believe the evidence already gathered justifies moving aggressively against the exchange and filing criminal charges against individual executives including founder Changpeng Zhao, said two of the sources. Others have argued taking time to review more evidence, the sources said.

The inquiry involves prosecutors at three Justice Department offices: the Money Laundering and Asset Recovery Section, known as MLARS, the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Western District of Washington in Seattle and the National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team. Justice Department regulations say that money laundering charges against a financial institution must be approved by the MLARS chief. Leaders from the other two offices, along with higher-level DOJ officials, would likely also have to sign off on any action against Binance, three of the sources said.

Through interviews with almost a dozen people familiar with the case, including current and former U.S. law enforcement officials and ex-Binance advisors, along with a review of company records, Reuters has pieced together the most comprehensive account so far of how the investigation developed and how Binance has sought to keep it at bay. Prosecutors' deliberations on charging Binance have not been previously reported.

The stakes are high for the deeply troubled crypto sector. If the investigation goes against Binance and Zhao, it could loosen Binance's grip on the industry. Its hold has been strengthened by the recent collapse of rival exchange FTX.
Binance's defense attorneys at U.S. law firm Gibson Dunn have held meetings in recent months with Justice Department officials, the four people said. Among Binance's arguments: A criminal prosecution would wreak havoc on a crypto market already in a prolonged downturn. The discussions included potential plea deals, according to three of the sources.

A Binance spokesperson said, "We don't have any insight into the inner workings of the US Justice Department, nor would it be appropriate for us to comment if we did." The Justice Department declined to comment.
The charges under investigation are unlicensed money transmission, money laundering conspiracy and criminal sanctions violations, the four people said. No final charging decisions have been made, though prosecutors consider Zhao and some other executives to be subjects of the investigation, one source familiar with the situation said. Ultimately, the Justice Department could bring indictments against Binance and its executives, negotiate a settlement, or close the case without taking any action at all.
Little has been revealed about the case. Reuters reported previously that in 2020, prosecutors requested extensive internal records from Binance about its anti-money laundering checks, along with communications involving Zhao and other executives.
The new reporting shows that the case has shadowed Binance for most of its five years in existence, shaping Zhao's management of the company while he drove its explosive growth around the world. He instigated a recruitment spree last year that led to the hiring of officials from the Internal Revenue Service's Criminal Investigation division, the U.S. government agency that was investigating Binance. He enforced strict secrecy rules on employees, telling them to use email as little as possible and to communicate using encrypted messaging services, according to company messages that Reuters has previously reported.
Reuters has investigated Binance's financial crime compliance over the course of 2022. The reporting showed that Binance kept weak anti-money laundering controls, processed over $10 billion in payments for criminals and companies seeking to evade U.S. sanctions, and plotted to evade regulators in the United States and elsewhere.
Binance has disputed the articles, calling the illicit-fund calculations inaccurate and the descriptions of its compliance controls "outdated." The exchange has said it is "driving higher industry standards" and seeking to "further improve our ability to detect illegal crypto activity on our platform."
Launched by Zhao in Shanghai in 2017, Binance now dominates the crypto industry. The exchange processed trades worth around $1.6 trillion in October, about half of the entire crypto market's trading volume. That sum dwarfed its former challenger FTX, which handled $230 billion in trades that month, according to data site CryptoCompare.
FTX imploded in early November, triggering a wave of public demands for greater regulation of the cryptocurrency industry. Founder Sam Bankman-Fried had boasted his exchange was the "most regulated," but he based it in the Bahamas, where oversight was light, and secretly used customer deposits. The Justice Department has opened an investigation into FTX's handling of company funds, Reuters has reported. In a bankruptcy hearing, attorneys for FTX said the exchange was run as a "personal fiefdom" of Bankman-Fried. Bankman-Fried says he didn't knowingly commit any wrongdoing.
Sources familiar with Justice Department operations said it is as yet unclear whether this new probe will add impetus to the investigation into Binance or slow it down.
Zhao, who declines to disclose the location or entity behind his own exchange, accelerated his rival's fall by announcing that Binance would sell its holding of FTX's digital token. This sparked a surge of user withdrawals, ultimately forcing FTX to file for bankruptcy.
In a blog post several days later, Zhao wrote that Binance "must lead by example" going forward. "We cannot let a few bad actors sully the reputation of this industry," he wrote.

"LAWYER UP"
Prosecutors in the U.S. Attorney's Office in Seattle began investigating Binance in 2018, following a wave of cases that saw criminals use Binance to move illicit funds, the four people familiar with the probe said.
The Seattle office partnered with MLARS to pursue the case, along with agents from the IRS Criminal Investigation division.
Binance began to address the chances of U.S. enforcement action that year. A summary of a company meeting in October 2018, attended by Zhao, said, "Lawyer up in the US, address regulatory risks."
The U.S. Bank Secrecy Act, designed to protect the U.S. financial system from illicit finance, requires crypto exchanges to register with the Treasury Department and comply with anti-money laundering requirements if they conduct "substantial" business in the United States. Binance has never done so, despite almost a third of its users being U.S.-based the year of its launch, according to a company blog post.
Instead, Zhao approved a proposal from a person providing advice to Binance to "insulate" Binance from U.S. scrutiny by setting up a new American exchange that would draw regulators' attention away from the main platform, as reported by Reuters in October. Zhao became concerned about U.S. authorities gaining access to Binance's internal records, company messages show.
A guide issued to employees for one encrypted messaging service listed its "automatic self-erasing messages" as a benefit.
Until 2020, Binance's legal department operated on bare bones. Its head of legal, Jared Gross, was a former mergers and acquisitions lawyer with little experience in dealing with authorities, according to two people who worked with him. Faced with the Justice Department investigation, Binance hired an external lawyer from U.S. law firm Paul Weiss, Roberto Gonzalez, who was previously Treasury's deputy general counsel. Gross, who left Binance last year, did not respond to messages and phone calls. Gonzalez and Paul Weiss didn't comment.
In December 2020, two MLARS attorneys and a Seattle prosecutor sent the DOJ's request for documents to Binance, addressed to Gonzalez. The letter sought any records containing instructions that "documents be destroyed, altered, or removed from Binance's files" or that "information should not be committed to writing." The request asked for communications involving Zhao and 12 other Binance executives and advisors.
Several days later, an advisor to one of the people named in the letter received a panicked phone call from this person. The caller told the advisor that Binance was struggling to respond to the DOJ because many of the records relevant to the Department's request had already been erased due to Zhao's secrecy rules. This extended, the person told the advisor, to Zhao's approvals for financial decisions at Binance.US, the separate American exchange which publicly says it is "fully independent" of the main Binance platform.
A Binance.US spokesperson said Reuters' questions were "fueled with false insinuations," and Binance.US was a separate entity with its own leadership team who are "solely responsible for overseeing decisions and activity across the business."
Text messages and phone records reviewed by Reuters confirm the call took place and that it concerned the Department's December 2020 letter. The advisor described the contents of the call on the condition that Reuters not identify the advisor or the caller.
Reuters, which was the first to disclose the request publicly, could not determine how Binance ultimately responded to the DOJ letter.

NEW TASKFORCE
The following year, Binance began a recruitment blitz. It hired at least five ex-officials from the IRS Criminal Investigation's Cyber Crime Unit, including a new global head of investigations called Tigran Gambaryan. Binance said Gambaryan's team would detect and prevent crimes on the platform and work closely with law enforcement.
As an IRS-CI special agent, Gambaryan had helped lead investigations into several notorious crypto crime operations, such as the Silk Road darknet drugs marketplace and a child abuse site called Dark Scandals, whose operations Reuters detailed in an article last month. Gambaryan was not involved in the Binance investigation at IRS-CI, but was close to agents that were, according to two people who worked with him.
His hiring was part of a recruitment program by Binance among law enforcement officials in the United States, offering salaries that far exceeded what was available at many other finance and crypto firms, according to four people familiar with the outreach.
Gambaryan didn't respond to a request for comment. Binance told Reuters, "We are proud to have in our ranks some of the most celebrated cyber investigators representing virtually every single major international law enforcement agency across the globe." Binance said they have around 300 investigators working "to protect users from illicit actors."
In August 2021, Binance ended a policy that allowed users to open accounts with solely an email address. Reuters has reported previously that criminals ranging from Russian drug traffickers to North Korean hackers had exploited this feature to move money anonymously through Binance.
But even after Binance required all users to submit identification, gaps remained in its compliance programme. For example, between then and this November, Binance processed over $1 billion in trades for Iranian crypto firms, putting the company at risk of violating U.S sanctions, Reuters reported last month.
In October 2021, Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco announced the creation of a National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team (NCET) to tackle investigations of "criminal misuses of cryptocurrency, particularly crimes committed by virtual currency exchanges." Monaco, in a separate speech that month, said the Justice Department's "first priority in corporate criminal matters" was to prosecute individuals who profit from corporate wrongdoing.
The Justice Department appointed Eun Young Choi, previously Monaco's senior counsel, as NCET's first director. Under Choi, NCET began coordinating the Binance investigation, joining the U.S. Attorney's Office in Seattle and MLARS, according to the four people familiar with the case. Agents gathered evidence from former Binance employees and business partners, they said.
In recent months, prosecutors at NCET and the Seattle office concluded they had sufficient evidence to prepare charges not only against Binance, but also against Zhao and some other executives, the people said. However, MLARS leadership has been hesitant to move forward with an indictment, leading to frustrations within the investigation team, the people said.
MLARS has a reputation in the Justice Department for moving slowly in reaching prosecution decisions, people familiar with its activities said. In October, however, the Department appointed a new MLARS chief, Brent Wible, who previously worked in the Fraud Section and before that as a prosecutor in the Southern District of New York. Both of those offices are known, among current and former law enforcement officials, for pursuing cases more aggressively.
Binance has hired a former chief of MLARS, Kendall Day, a partner at Gibson Dunn, to engage in discussions with the Justice Department. Day met with Justice officials in Washington in recent months, three of the people said. Officials discussed with Day a possible resolution to the case out of court, whereby suspects would potentially plead guilty or pay a fine, the three sources said. Day didn't comment.

FT : ECB warns of higher loan losses and funding squeeze for eurozone banks

ECB warns of higher loan losses and funding squeeze for eurozone banks
Regulator plans more frequent inspections of bank offices and will carry out ‘targeted reviews’

The European Central Bank has warned that eurozone banks are at risk of mounting bad loans and a funding squeeze due to rising interest rates, higher inflation and a likely recession.

Supervisors at the ECB plan more frequent inspections of bank offices and will carry out more “targeted reviews” of the largest lenders in the 19-country single currency zone to push them to address these growing risks, the regulator said on Monday.

Publishing its priorities for banking supervision next year, the ECB said lending to energy-intensive sectors, residential mortgages and commercial property was particularly vulnerable to the deteriorating economic environment.

Some banks could also struggle to replace the cheap funding the ECB has provided to help the sector through the coronavirus pandemic, which is now being withdrawn as the central bank tightens monetary policy to tackle high inflation, it said.

“While the banking sector has thus far proven to be resilient to the fallout from the war in Ukraine, downside risks have increased as a result,” said Kerstin af Jochnick, an ECB supervisory board member, and Mario Quagliariello, its director of supervisory strategy and risk.

“In the near term, we are concerned about the repercussions of the macroeconomic environment and financial market dynamics for asset quality and banks’ funding,” they said in a blog published on Monday.

The increased pressure from the ECB over banks’ preparation for a potential increase in bad loans and funding squeeze could increase tensions with executives in the sector, several of whom have already complained about its heavy handed approach to supervision.

The banking sector’s performance has picked up this year, as rising interest rates have boosted profit margins on loans while government measures to support companies and households with high energy costs have helped to keep defaults low.

However, the ECB warned that the good times looked unlikely to last due to a probable increase in bad loans and rising funding costs for banks. 

The central bank is expected to raise interest rates on Thursday by at least 0.5 percentage points to 2 per cent, which would be the highest level since the 2008/9 financial crisis, while most economists expect the eurozone to enter a recession this winter.

“Higher interest rates and a sluggish or possibly recessionary growth outlook may challenge the debt-servicing capacity of borrowers going forward,” the ECB officials said in their blog. “This may particularly be the case for highly indebted households and corporates.”

The central bank said a recent supervisory review had identified shortcomings in how banks control their risks, “especially in relation to loan origination and monitoring, classification of distressed borrowers and provisioning frameworks”.

Some banks have also become “more vulnerable to market disturbances” because of a heavy reliance on ultra-cheap funding from the ECB itself, the central bank warned. 

Last month, the ECB changed the terms of its targeted longer-term lending operations, under which it lent €2.1tn to banks at a rate as low as minus 1 per cent to encourage them not to cut their lending during the pandemic.

The TLTRO rate was raised to the ECB’s deposit rate from last month and since then banks have repaid nearly €800bn of their loans under the scheme ahead of schedule.

The central bank said some banks would need to “further diversify their funding sources and replace part of their central bank funding with more expensive and possibly shorter-term alternatives, which will put pressure on their prudential ratios and profitability”.

TechCrunch : Thoma Bravo snags Coupa for $8B despite activist pressure to hold o

Thoma Bravo snags Coupa for $8B despite activist pressure to hold off for higher price

When news surfaced last week that activist investors were taking the unusual step of pressuring Coupa Software to not sell for less than $95 a share, it got our attention. You don’t normally see investors sending a letter asking a company to hold off on a sale. It’s typically the opposite.

But today, the company announced that Thoma Bravo was acquiring it for $8 billion. That works out to $81 a share, which still represents a 77% premium for shareholders, but well below what HMI Capital was asking for in a letter made public earlier this month.

The letter believed published rumors that another private equity company, Vista Equity Partners, was in the hunt to buy it, but in the end, Thoma Bravo was the buyer along with a wholly owned subsidiary of the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) also participating in the deal as a minority investor. Thoma Bravo has a long history of acquiring mature enterprise software companies and taking them private.

Coupa, which makes spend management software for large businesses, has been having a rough year in the stock market, like many SaaS companies, feeling the wrath of investors looking for profit over growth. The company’s stock price was down 64% year-to-date and was down over 2.5% in pre-trading, suggesting that perhaps investors aren’t happy with the deal.

Company CEO Rob Bernshteyn put a happy face on the deal as you would expect, saying that customers can expect a similar level of service, regardless of who the owner is signing the checks.

Roger Siboni, Coupa’s lead independent director said that the company took into consideration the current economic climate and decided it was a deal worth taking. “The Board evaluated the transaction against the company’s standalone prospects in the current macroeconomic climate and determined that the compelling and certain cash consideration in the transaction provides superior risk-adjusted value relative to the Company’s standalone prospects. The Board is unanimous in its belief this transaction is the optimal path forward and in the best interest of our shareholders,” he said in a statement.

While the board of directors has unanimously agreed to the terms, it should be interesting to see if the shareholders are as friendly to the deal when they meet early next year. It would seem that HMI Capital, which owns 4.8% of the Coupa stock, will lead the charge against the deal if the letter the firm published is any indication of its feelings about the company being undervalued at this price.

Should the deal pass muster with stockholders and regulators, it is expected to close in the first half of 2023. Surprisingly, given HMI’s letter, there is no go-shop provision with this deal, which would allow Coupa to keep looking for a better deal.