TechCrunch : Binance.US to buy Voyager Digital’s assets for $1 billion

Binance.US to buy Voyager Digital’s assets for $1 billion

It’s been a long year for Voyager Digital. After filing for bankruptcy, the crypto lender thought it would be able to return some funds to its customers by selling its assets to FTX. As you know, things haven’t been going well at FTX either. That’s why Binance.US is stepping in today and offering to buy Voyager Digital’s assets for $1.022 billion.

It all started with the default of Three Arrows Capital earlier this year. It had some large repercussions across the crypto ecosystem. In particular, Voyager Digital realized that Three Arrows Capital owed it more $650 million. It had no choice but to file for Chapter 11 as a result.

“After a review of strategic options focused on maximizing value returned to customers on an expedited timeframe, Binance.US has been selected as the highest and best bidder for our assets,” Voyager Digital said on Twitter today.

With today’s bid, Binance.US agreed to buy Voyager’s crypto portfolio for $1.002 billion. It is also spending another $20 million for other assets of “incremental value”.

Binance.US wants to return crypto to Voyager Digital’s customers. They will be able to connect to Binance.US and see some crypto assets based on their previous positions on Voyager Digital.

“Upon close of the deal, users will be able to seamlessly access their digital assets on the Binance.US platform where they will continue to receive future disbursements from the Voyager estate,” Binance.US CEO Brian Shroder said in a statement.

Of course, users will also be able to liquidate their positions and get cash. But Binance.US will likely gain new users with this deal. Some of them may start using Binance.US as their crypto exchange. Others will just sign up to withdraw their Voyager Digital funds.

Last month, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao, also known as CZ, said that its U.S. arm would make a new bid for Voyager Digital’s assets. “Binance.US will make another bid for Voyager now, given FTX is no longer able to follow through on that commitment,” he said.

The deal hasn’t closed just yet. Due to the Chapter 11 process, there will be a court hearing on January 5, 2023. The Bankruptcy Court will decide if it approves the deal.

>>> US Research Calls

Research Calls

  • Upgrades:
    • American Equity Investment Life (AEL) upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James; tgt $48
    • Enphase Energy (ENPH) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Northland Capital; tgt $365
    • Glaukos (GKOS) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $42
    • Moderna (MRNA) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies; tgt raised to $275
    • Pentair (PNR) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel
    • PerkinElmer (PKI) upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc Capital Markets; tgt $170
    • Verizon (VZ) upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at MoffettNathanson; tgt $41
  • Downgrades:
    • Ameriprise Financial (AMP) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt $325
    • AT&T (T) downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at MoffettNathanson; tgt $17
    • AXIS Capital (AXS) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt lowered to $60
    • Baxter (BAX) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $55
    • Catalent (CTLT) downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc Capital Markets
    • L3Harris (LHX) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird; tgt lowered to $241
    • Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) downgraded to Hold from Buy at TD Securities; tgt $72
    • Tesla (TSLA) downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer
    • Vertex Pharma (VRTX) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies; tgt $340
    • VTEX (VTEX) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $5
    • Xylem (XYL) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel; tgt raised to $115
  • Others:
    • Annaly Capital Mgmt (NLY) initiated with a Buy at Jones Trading; tgt $22.50
    • Bank of Montreal (BMO) resumed with an Outperform at Credit Suisse
    • DZS Inc. (DZSI) initiated with an Outperform at Cowen; tgt $25
    • F&G Annuities & Life (FG) initiated with an Equal Weight at Barclays; tgt $22
    • Main Street Capital (MAIN) initiated with a Neutral at UBS; tgt $40
    • MasterBrand (MBC) initiated with a Hold at Loop Capital; tgt $9
    • NewAmsterdam Pharma (NAMS) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies; tgt $24
    • NewAmsterdam Pharma (NAMS) initiated with an Outperform at William Blair
    • Schrodinger (SDGR) initiated with a Neutral at Goldman; tgt $23
    • Thomson Reuters (TRI) assumed with a Sector Perform at Scotiabank; tgt $126
    • VersaBank (VBNK) assumed with an Outperform at Raymond James; tgt $9
    • Viridian Therapeutics (VRDN) initiated with an Outperform at Cowen; tgt $45

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down

Other news:

  • ARDX -5.6% (provides update on FDA appeal for XPHOZAH for the control of serum phosphorus in adult patients with Chronic Kidney Disease on Dialysis)
  • YMAB -5.2% (The CHMP has Adopted a Negative Opinion for Omburtamab for the Treatment of CNS/LM Metastasis from Neuroblastoma in Europe)
  • LHX -1.5% (to acquire AJRD)
  • ONON -0.9% (files mixed securities shelf offering)
  • RANI -0.8% (files for 6,009,542 share common stock offering by selling shareholders),

Analyst comments:

  • LPX -1.5% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at TD Securities),
  • T -0.9% (downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at MoffettNathanson),

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
M&A news:

  • AJRD +1.6% (to be acquired by L3Harris Technologies (LHX) for $58.00/share in an all-cash transaction valued at $4.7 billion, inclusive of net debt), . 

Other news:

  • MDGL +150.8% (announces positive topline results from pivotal Phase 3 MAESTRO-NASH Clinical Trial of resmetirom)
  • ZYME +26.9% (announces "positive" topline results from the pivotal Phase 2b HERIZON-BTC-01 open-label, single-arm clinical trial investigating zanidatamab, as monotherapy in patients with previously treated HER2-amplified and expressing BTC)
  • TSHA +16.8% (announces executive leadership changes; Chair of the Board of Directors, Sean Nolan, appointed CEO)
  • MESA +6.8% (plans for a significant restructuring in its operations with American Airlines (AAL) and United Airlines)
  • ZIP +5.6% (enters $50 mln share repurchase program)
  • BLUE +3.1% (FDA lifts partial clinical hold for BLUE Sickle Cell Disease Studies for Patients Under the Age of 18),  

Analyst comments:

  • MRNA +3.5% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies),

Reuters : Medical device makers drop products as EU law sows chaos

Medical device makers drop products as EU law sows chaos

 

LONDON, Dec 19 (Reuters) - Nicola Osypka's German company has been selling medical devices used in surgery on newborn babies in Europe for decades, but new European Union rules have forced her to make tough decisions.

 

Under the regulations designed to prevent another health scandal, such as the one in 2010 involving ruptured breast implants made by Poly Implant Prothese, companies must apply for new certificates for their medical equipment.

 

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But Osypka says the small firm founded in 1977 by her father Peter cannot afford the process and it has withdrawn five lines of devices sold in the EU, some for more than 30 years.

 

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"A law created to stop one criminal company's actions 10 years ago now endangers patients' lives, including children, and European manufacturing sites," said Osypka.

 

"Is that what the EU wants for its citizens?"

 

Osypka AG is one of eight companies Reuters has spoken to, including Swedish medical equipment maker Getinge (GETIb.ST), that are withdrawing devices from the EU market, or have stopped making them due to the cost it takes to comply with the rules.

 

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While some companies say the products they have cut have no impact on patients or profits, others say some of withdrawn devices are essential, and doctors agree.

 

Under the EU's Medical Devices Regulation (MDR), which came into effect in May 2021, all medical devices, from implants and prosthetics to blood glucose meters and catheters, must meet stricter safety criteria, sometimes with new clinical trials.

 

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The eight manufacturers all said the requirements were stretching the time it takes to get a certificate for a product line to as much as two-and-a-half years, compared with a few months under the old system.

 

Costs have also surged, by anywhere from three to 10 times, the companies said. As a result, some are simply allowing their product certifications to lapse, which means hospitals in the EU can no longer use their devices.

 

The EU Commission, in response to Reuters' questions, said it was concerned about the pace of the implementation of the new rules and would do all it could to ensure patients have access to the medical devices they need.

 

DISRUPTION FOR DOCTORS

Reuters also spoke to two medical associations, three doctors and two regulatory experts and, like the companies, they said the new rules were causing widespread disruption and shortages of crucial equipment.

 

The doctors, in Austria, Belgium and Germany, said in some cases they were unable to provide their standard quality of care because devices for routine procedures were no longer available.

 

The Standing Committee of European Doctors (CPME), a group of national medical associations, told Reuters that hospitals in Austria and Denmark have reported shortages of critical devices.

 

France's national medical regulator (ANSM) told Reuters that the country's health system was being affected by shortages of various types of devices, partly because of the new law.

 

Nicola Osypka, a molecular biologist, said she sat down with staff to run the numbers on their niche products, such as a miniscule catheter used to keep newborns with non-functioning heart valves alive until surgery can be performed.

 

"These types of products are totally beneficial for these patients, but we cannot afford the half a million euros it takes to conduct a clinical study, even though these products have been on the market for 30 or 40 years," she said.

 

Just as painful is the fact Osypka cannot afford costs estimated at one million euros ($1.1 million) to prepare the application for an innovative product that has already been through clinical trials.

 

The company's new stent for babies was developed over eight years and doctors successfully used it on 19 babies during the trial in Germany, according to the results seen by Reuters.

 

John O'Dea, chief executive of Palliare, a small Irish medical equipment manufacturer, is so keen to get his firm's new laparoscopic device for surgery in the abdomen or pelvis onto the market, he has swallowed the costs.

 

The process has taken a year and a half so far and O'Dea estimates the total cost will come to about 100,000 euros, for equipment approved two years ago by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

 

Under the old system, it took about 15,000 euros and a few months to get a similar device approved, he said.

 

SYSTEM OVERLOAD

The costly approval process is the latest blow to the world's second-biggest medical device market, worth more than $150 billion, which is already reeling from soaring energy bills and unpredictable supply chains following pandemic lockdowns.

 

An EU Commission spokesperson said in an emailed statement that there were currently not enough agencies, known as notified bodies, to do the work of recertifying products, though device makers had also not prepared sufficiently for the change.

 

Brussels has authorised 36 agencies and is considering 20 more applications, the spokesperson said.

 

Tom Melvin, an associate professor of medical device regulatory affairs at Trinity College Dublin, said there were nearly 100 such agencies a decade ago under the old system.

 

In a major concession, the EU Health Commissioner proposed on Dec. 9 to delay the May 2024 deadline for companies to comply with the new law to 2028 to prevent shortages.

 

The extension will require an amendment to the law to be approved by the European Council and Parliament, which would not happen until next year.

 

While a delay would mean some devices will not be cut in the short term, it would not address the logjams and high costs putting firms off going through the process, executives such as Frank Matzek, vice president of regulatory and governmental affairs at Biotronik, a cardiac devices maker in Berlin, said.

 

EU Commission data released this month shows the scale of the problem.

 

Under the old system, there are about 25,000 certificates. So far, manufacturers have submitted applications under the new system for about 8,000, but less than 2,000 have been approved.

 

Certificates cover multiple devices, and in some cases whole product lines, making it hard to estimate the number of products potentially affected. Industry experts say about 500,000 different devices are sold in the EU.

 

GOING BACKWARDS

Even large companies with deeper pockets and more experience of handling tough global regulations say they have been astonished by the new system's complexity and expense.

 

Getinge, which makes products for surgery, intensive care and sterilization, has new certificates for about 20% of its portfolio and feels it is on track to meet the deadline, said Mikael Johansson, an executive overseeing MDR implementation.

 

But that work started in 2018, required a full review of the company's portfolio and resulted in the removal of about a third of Getinge's products from its range of hundreds of devices.

 

He said the cull was "healthy" in that it removed products with little effect on profit, but recertification of the rest has been more demanding and taken much longer than expected.

 

But as some companies press ahead, others are letting certifications lapse.

 

Andreas Kohl, who runs stent and catheter manufacturer AndraTec in Germany, said he plans to drop two or three devices because he cannot afford to apply for all six of his products currently sold in the EU.

 

Balton in Poland told customers in October it would ditch over a dozen products, including catheters and stents used for coronary angioplasties and pacing electrodes, due to the costs and other difficulties of complying with the new law, according to an email seen by Reuters.

 

The company did not respond to requests for comment.

 

Doctors say the starkest example of the impact of the company decisions has been on devices for rare conditions, such as catheters used on newborns with heart problems.

 

Marc Gewillig, director of paediatric cardiology at the University Hospital Leuven, a teaching hospital in Belgium, said he has lost access to nearly a dozen devices needed for procedures, forcing him to improvise on three babies.

 

For one procedure, he said he had to use a catheter to access the atrial septum in the heart through the groin, instead of through the umbilical cord with a balloon catheter.

 

The procedure is usually carried out within five minutes of birth, but without the preferred device, he must transfer the baby to another part of the hospital, delaying it by 30 minutes.

 

"Those are minutes in a child with little oxygen going to its brain," he said. "We're going back in medicine by 20 to 30 years."

Mashable : Tinder users are using ChatGPT to message matches

Tinder users are using ChatGPT to message matches
This is the "future of Tinder," apparently.

The launch of OpenAI's ChatGPT this month has ushered in a new era — of social feeds clogged with screenshots and discussions of the chatbot and its seemingly infinite uses. TikTokkers didn't hesitate to divulge how they're using ChatGPT: to message Tinder matches.

Using AI in dating apps isn't new. For years, programmers have been trying to further gamify the game of finding love on your phone. These Tinder users created bots to swipe and message for them and can do so with hundreds of users at a time. It's no surprise that Tinder bans users who do this, but even the app itself utilizes AI to generate conversation starters:

Those using ChatGPT, however, are putting in a bit more manual effort. Once they match with someone, they ask ChatGPT for an opening message based on their interests. Then they copy and paste the output and send it to their match. And honestly? From what folks are posting on TikTok, it's working.

One "Tinder veteran" used ChatGPT to generate a poem for the six-foot woman he was messaging. She loved it, saying a guy hadn't written a poem for her before. The caption on the video claimed this is the "future of Tinder."

Here's another example, this time a TikTok user requesting a weight lifting-themed opener. ChatGPT spit out, "Do you mind if I take a seat? Because watching you do those hip thrusts is making my legs feel a little weak."

Once again, the receiver of the message enjoyed it and soon dropped her Snapchat.

As with using an AI bot to completely use Tinder for you, there are potential ethical concerns at play here; the dominant from these examples is disclosure. How would a match feel if they knew your messages were AI-generated? Are you lying by omission by not telling them a bot actually "wrote" the message? What if they were using ChatGPT to message, too — then would it matter?

These are questions we can't yet answer but surely will have to grapple with as AI becomes further embedded in our lives. As one TikTok user captioned, "AI just too overpowered."

Wired : Physicists Rewrite a Quantum Rule That Clashes With Our Universe

Physicists Rewrite a Quantum Rule That Clashes With Our Universe
The past and future are tightly linked in conventional quantum mechanics. A tweak could let quantum possibilities increase as space expands.

A JARRING DIVIDE cleaves modern physics. On one side lies quantum theory, which portrays subatomic particles as probabilistic waves. On the other lies general relativity, Einstein’s theory that space and time can bend, causing gravity. For 90 years, physicists have sought a reconciliation, a more fundamental description of reality that encompasses both quantum mechanics and gravity. But the quest has run up against thorny paradoxes.

Hints are mounting that at least part of the problem lies with a principle at the center of quantum mechanics, an assumption about how the world works that seems so obvious it’s barely worth stating, much less questioning.

Unitarity, as the principle is called, says that something always happens. When particles interact, the probability of all possible outcomes must sum to 100 percent. Unitarity severely limits how atoms and subatomic particles might evolve from moment to moment. It also ensures that change is a two-way street: Any imaginable event at the quantum scale can be undone, at least on paper. These requirements have long guided physicists as they derive valid quantum formulas. “It’s a very restrictive condition, even though it might seem a little bit trivial at first glance,” said Yonatan Kahn, an assistant professor at the University of Illinois.

But what once seemed an essential scaffold may have become a stifling straitjacket preventing physicists from reconciling quantum mechanics and gravity. “Unitarity in quantum gravity is a very open question,” said Bianca Dittrich, a theorist at the Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics in Waterloo, Canada.

The main problem is that the universe is expanding. This expansion is well described by general relativity. But it means that the future of the cosmos looks totally different from its past, while unitarity demands a tidy symmetry between past and future on the quantum level. “There is a tension there, and it’s something quite puzzling if you think about it,” said Steve Giddings, a quantum gravity theorist at the University of California, Santa Barbara.

Concern over this conflict has been in the air for years. But recently, two quantum gravity theorists may have found a way to loosen unitarity’s buckles to better fit our growing cosmos. Andrew Strominger and Jordan Cotler of Harvard University argue that a more relaxed principle called isometry can accommodate an expanding universe while still satisfying the stringent requirements that first made unitary a guiding light.

“You don’t need unitarity,” said Strominger. “Unitarity is too strong of a condition.”

While many physicists are receptive to the isometry proposal—some have even come to similar conclusions independently—opinions vary as to whether the update is too radical or not radical enough.

A Fixed Sum
In everyday life, events can’t help but play out in a unitary way. A coin toss, for instance, has a 100 percent chance of coming up heads or tails.

But a century ago, the pioneers of quantum mechanics made a surprising discovery—one that elevated unitarity from common sense to a hallowed principle. The surprise was that, mathematically, the quantum world operates not by probabilities but by more complicated numbers known as amplitudes. An amplitude is essentially the degree to which a particle is in a certain state; it can be a positive, negative or imaginary number. To calculate the probability of actually observing a particle in a certain state, physicists square the amplitude (or, if the amplitude is an imaginary number, they square its absolute value), which gets rid of the imaginary and negative bits and produces a positive probability. Unitarity says the sum of these probabilities (really, the squares of all the amplitudes) must equal 1.

It’s this twist—the squaring of hidden amplitudes to calculate the outcomes we actually see—that gives unitarity teeth. As a particle’s state changes (as it flies through a magnetic field, say, or collides with another particle), its amplitudes change too. In working out how a particle is allowed to evolve or interact, physicists use the fact that amplitudes never change in a way that disrupts the fixed sum of their squares. In the 1920s, for instance, this unitarity requirement guided the British physicist Paul Dirac to discover an equation that implied the existence of antimatter. “I was not interested in considering any theory which would not fit in with my darling,” Dirac wrote, referring to unitarity.

Physicists keep probabilities and amplitudes in line by tracking how the quantum state of a particle moves around in Hilbert space—an abstract space representing all possible states available to the particle. The particle’s amplitudes correspond to its coordinates in Hilbert space, and physicists capture changes to the particle with mathematical objects called matrices, which transform its coordinates. Unitarity dictates that a physically allowed change must correspond to a special “unitary” matrix that rotates the particle’s state in Hilbert space without changing that the sum of the squares of its coordinates equals 1.

It’s a mathematical fact with philosophical consequences: If you know the specific unitary matrix corresponding to some change over time, any quantum state can be swiveled into the future or unswiveled into the past. It will always land on another viable state in the Hilbert space, which never grows or shrinks. “The past completely determines the future, and the future completely determines the past,” said Cotler. “It’s related to the statement that information is neither created nor destroyed.”

And yet, this bedrock assumption seems to conflict with the universe that surrounds us.

A Cosmic Clash
Galaxies are flying ever farther apart. While our expanding universe is a perfectly valid solution to the equations of general relativity, physicists have increasingly realized that its growth spells trouble for quantum mechanics, by presenting particles with an expanding smorgasbord of options for where to be and how to behave. As space grows, how can the Hilbert space of possibilities not grow with it? “It’s definitely true that there are more degrees of freedom in the universe now than in the early universe,” said Nima Arkani-Hamed, a theoretical physicist at the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton, New Jersey.

“I’ve felt for many years [that] it was the elephant in the room,” said Strominger.

Giddings sharpens the issue with a paradoxical thought experiment set in a universe that’s both unitary and expanding. Imagine taking the current state of the universe, said Giddings, and adding “one innocuous photon”—perhaps lodged in newly created space halfway between here and the Andromeda galaxy. Unitarity insists that we must be able to calculate what this universe looked like in the past, unswiveling its quantum state as much as we wish.

But rewinding the state of the universe plus an extra photon creates a glitch. Going into the past, the universe gets smaller, and the wavelength of photons will shrink too. In our real universe, this isn’t a problem: A photon shrinks only until the moment of its creation through some subatomic process; the reversal of that process will make it disappear. But the extra photon wasn’t created by that special process, so instead of disappearing when you turn back time, its wavelength will eventually get impossibly small, concentrating its energy so greatly that the photon collapses into a black hole. This creates a paradox, absurdly implying that—in this fictional, expanding universe—microscopic black holes convert into photons. The thought experiment suggests that a naïve mashup of unitarity and cosmic expansion doesn’t work.

Dittrich thinks unitarity smells fishy on more general grounds. Quantum mechanics treats time as absolute, but general relativity messes with the ticking of clocks, complicating the notion of change from one moment to the next. “I personally never relied so much on unitarity,” she said.

The question is: What sort of alternative framework could accommodate both cosmic expansion and the rigid mathematics of quantum theory?

Unitarity 2.0
Last year, Strominger struck up a collaboration with Cotler, who splits his time between quantum gravity research and quantum information theory—the study of information stored in quantum states. The duo realized that there is a well-studied scheme in quantum information theory that resembles the expanding universe: quantum error correction, a scheme where a small message made from quantum states is redundantly encoded inside a bigger system. Perhaps, they thought, the contents of the young universe are similarly stitched into the modern cosmos’s swollen form.

“In hindsight, the obvious answer is this is exactly what people doing quantum encoding have been doing,” Strominger said.

In a paper earlier this year, the two homed in on a class of transformations that quantum error-correcting codes belong to, known as isometries. An isometric change resembles a unitary one with added flexibility.

Think of an electron that can occupy two possible locations. Its Hilbert space consists of all possible combinations of amplitudes in the two locations. These possibilities can be imagined as the points on a circle—every point has some value in both the horizontal and vertical directions. Unitary changes rotate states around the circle but do not expand or shrink the set of possibilities.

To visualize an isometric change, though, let the universe of this electron swell just enough to allow a third position. The electron’s Hilbert space grows, but in a special way: It gains another dimension. The circle becomes a sphere, on which the particle’s quantum state can swivel around to accommodate mixtures of all three locations. The distance between any two states on the circle holds steady under the change—another requirement of unitarity. In short, the options increase, but without unphysical consequences.

“Working with isometries is sort of a generalization” of unitarity, said Giddings. “It keeps some of the essence.”

Our universe would have a Hilbert space with a huge number of dimensions that proliferate continuously as real space expands. As a simpler proof of concept, Strominger and Cotler studied the expansion of a toy universe consisting of a line ending in a receding mirror. They calculated the probability that the universe would grow from one length to another.

For such calculations, quantum practitioners often use the Schrödinger equation, which predicts how a quantum system evolves in time. But changes dictated by the Schrödinger equation are perfectly reversible; its “literal purpose in life is to enforce unitarity,” Arkani-Hamed said. So instead, Strominger and Cotler used an alternative version of quantum mechanics dreamed up by Richard Feynman, called the path integral. This method, which involves tallying up all the paths a quantum system can take from some starting point to an endpoint, has no trouble accommodating the creation of new states (which appear as branching paths leading to multiple endpoints). In the end, Strominger and Cotler’s path integral spit out a matrix encapsulating the growth of the toy cosmos, and it was indeed an isometric matrix rather than a unitary one.

“If you want to describe an expanding universe, the Schrödinger equation as it stands just won’t work,” Cotler said. “But in the Feynman formulation, it keeps on working on its own volition.” Cotler concludes that this alternative way of doing quantum mechanics based on isometry “will be more useful to us in understanding an expanding universe.”

A Mirage of Possibilities
Relaxing unitarity could resolve the glitches in the thought experiment that has troubled Giddings and others. It would do so through a conceptual change to how we think about the relationship between the past and the future, and which states of the universe are really possible.

To see why isometry solves the problem, Cotler describes a toy universe, one born in one of two possible initial states, 0 or 1 (a two-dimensional Hilbert space). He makes up an isometric rule to govern this universe’s expansion: At every successive moment, each 0 becomes 01, and each 1 becomes 10. If the universe starts at 0, its first three moments will see it grow as follows: 0 → 01 → 0110 → 01101001 (an 8D Hilbert space). If it starts at 1, it will become 10010110. The string captures everything about this universe—all its particles’ positions, for instance. A considerably longer string made from superpositions of 0s and 1s presumably describes the real universe.

At any given time, the toy universe has two possible states: one arising from 0 and another arising from 1. The initial one-digit configuration has been “encoded” in a larger, eight-digit state. That evolution resembles a unitary one, in that there are two possibilities at the beginning and two at the end. But the isometric evolution provides a more capable framework for describing the expanding universe. Crucially, it does so without creating the freedom to add, say, an extra photon between here and Andromeda, which would spell trouble when you turn back the clock. Imagine, for instance, that the universe is in the 01101001 state. Flip the first 0 to a 1—representing a minor, local tweak, such as the extra photon—and you’ll get a state that looks fine on paper (11101001), with a seemingly valid set of coordinates in the larger Hilbert space. But knowing the specific isometric rule, you can see that such a state has no parent state. This imaginary universe could never have arisen.

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“There are some configurations of the future that don’t correspond to anything in the past,” Cotler said. “There’s nothing in the past that would evolve into them.”

Giddings has proposed a similar principle for ruling out paradoxical states he encountered while studying black holes last year. He calls it “history matters,” and it holds that a given state of the universe is only physically possible if it can evolve backward without generating contradictions. “This has been kind of a lingering puzzle,” he said. Strominger and Cotler “are taking that puzzle and using it to try to motivate possibly a new way of thinking about things.”

Giddings thinks the approach deserves further development. So does Dittrich, who came to similar realizations about isometry a decade ago while attempting to formulate a toy quantum theory of space-time with her collaborator Philipp Höhn. One hope is that such work could eventually lead to the specific isometric rule that might govern our universe—a rather more complicated prescription than “0 goes to 01.” A true cosmological isometry, Cotler speculates, could be verified by calculating which specific patterns in the distribution of the matter in the sky are possible and which aren’t, and then testing those predictions against observational data. “If you look closer at it, you’ll find this but not this,” he said. “That could be really useful.”

To Isometry and Beyond
While such experimental evidence could accrue in the future, in the near term, evidence for isometry is more likely to come from theoretical studies and thought experiments showing that it helps combine the malleability of space-time with the amplitudes of quantum theory.

One thought experiment where unitarity looks creaky involves black holes, intense concentrations of matter that warp space-time into a dead end. Stephen Hawking calculated in 1974 that black holes evaporate over time, erasing the quantum state of anything that fell in—a seemingly blatant unitarity violation known as the black hole information paradox. If black holes have Hilbert spaces that mature isometrically, as Cotler and Strominger hypothesize, physicists may face a somewhat different puzzle than they thought. “I don’t think there can be a solution that doesn’t take this into account,” Strominger said.

Another prize would be a detailed quantum theory that described not just how the cosmos grows, but where everything came from in the first place. “We have no universe, and all of a sudden we have a universe,” Arkani-Hamed said. “What the hell kind of unitary evolution is that?”

For his part, however, Arkani-Hamed doubts that swapping in isometry for unitarity goes far enough. He is one of the leaders of a research program that is trying to break free of many fundamental assumptions in quantum theory and general relativity, not just unitarity.

Whatever theory comes next, he suspects, will take a completely novel form, just as quantum mechanics was a clean break from Isaac Newton’s laws of motion. As an illustrative example of what a new form might look like, he points to a research program stemming from a 2014 discovery he made together with Jaroslav Trnka, his student at the time. They showed that when certain particles collide, the amplitude of each possible outcome equals the volume of a geometric object, dubbed the amplituhedron. Calculating the object’s volume is much easier than using standard methods for computing the amplitudes, which laboriously reconstruct all the ways a particle collision might play out, moment by moment.

Intriguingly, while the amplituhedron gives answers that obey unitarity, the principle isn’t used to construct the shape itself. Neither are any assumptions about how particles move in space and time. The success of this purely geometric formulation of particle physics raises the possibility of a fresh perspective on reality, one free from the cherished principles that currently conflict. Researchers have gradually been generalizing the approach to explore related geometric shapes pertaining to different particles and quantum theories.

“[It] may be a different way to organize unitarity,” Cotler said, “and perhaps it has the seeds to transcend it.”