FT : Winklevii vs Silbert

Winklevii vs Silbert
Crypto kicks off 2023 with a bang

Individual crypto businesses and their (cough) related parties often have more than a whiff of the ouroboros about them. But the industry as whole mostly resembles the spidermen circle of blame meme these days.

The latest example came earlier today, when Cameron Winklevoss of Gemini published an “open letter” to fellow crypto baron Barry Silbert of Digital Currency Group about $900mn that Gemini users are owed by DCG’s Genesis unit, which suspended withdrawals last year.

Aside from performative hand-wringing about Gemini customers like the “single mom who lent her son’s education money to you” and a “father who lent his son’s bar mitzvah money to you”, the most incendiary bit was this (FTAV’s emphasis below):

The idea in your head that you can quietly hide in your ivory tower and that this will all just magically go away, or that this is someone else’s problem, is pure fantasy. To be clear, this mess is entirely of your own making. Digital Currency Group (DCG) — of which you are the founder and CEO — owes Genesis (its wholly owned subsidiary) ca $1.675 billion. This is money that Genesis owes to Earn users and other creditors. You took this money — the money of schoolteachers — to fuel greedy share buybacks, illiquid venture investments, and kamikaze Grayscale NAV trades that ballooned the fee-generating AUM of your Trust; all at the expense of creditors and all for your own personal gain. It is now time for you to take responsibility for this and do the right thing.

Sound familiar?

Silbert understandably couldn’t let the thinly-veiled FTX innuendo pass, and responded on Twitter inside the hour.

Silbert has already revealed that DCG has borrowed $575mn from Genesis “in the ordinary course of business” and “always structured on an arm’s length basis and priced at prevailing market interest rates”.

The disagreement seems to come down to how one views the $1.1bn promissory note due in 2032 that DCG issued to Genesis when the parent had to step in to assume liabilities related to the implosion of Three Arrows, a crypto “hedge fund” Three Arrows. On this topic it’s worth reading Kadhim Shubber, Nikou Asgari and Josh Oliver on the “delicate links” between the various parts of the struggling DCG empire.

In related news, DCG’s flagship crypto product — the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust — now trades at a 45 per cent discount to its net asset value. That means that its market value

As long as you’re not one of the crypto bros directly affected by the shenanigans, it’s all very grimly amusing.

WSJ : Crypto Magnates Cameron Winklevoss and Barry Silbert Trade Barbs

Crypto Magnates Cameron Winklevoss and Barry Silbert Trade Barbs
Mr. Silbert’s Genesis is a lending partner of the earn program at Mr. Winklevoss’s Gemini

Tensions between crypto magnates Cameron Winklevoss and Barry Silbert erupted into an open dispute on Twitter at the start of the new year, with Mr. Winklevoss accusing Mr. Silbert of “bad faith stall tactics” that are hurting rank-and-file customers.

The back-and-forth on Monday deals another blow to a sector struggling for credibility, especially since the collapse of FTX and its affiliated trading firm, Alameda Research. The fall of the two companies led to outflows from other crypto exchanges and the near-erasure in value of coins tied to FTX and Alameda, domino effects in a closely linked industry.

Crypto investors are closely watching the negotiations between the Gemini exchange, which was founded by Mr. Winklevoss and his brother, and the lender Genesis Global Capital. Last year saw the bankruptcies of multiple crypto firms, capped off with FTX. Traders are going into the new year wary of further turmoil.

Genesis, the lending unit of Mr. Silbert’s crypto conglomerate Digital Currency Group, halted loan originations and redemptions on Nov. 16 after it couldn’t meet client withdrawal requests. Genesis cited the demise of FTX. The Wall Street Journal previously reported that Genesis had loans outstanding to FTX’s sister trading firm.

Genesis is a lending partner of Gemini’s earn program, which allows retail users to lend out their cryptocurrencies in exchange for annual interest rates as high as 8%. Gemini paused customer withdrawals from the earn program on the same day that Genesis made its announcement. Gemini’s 340,000 earn users have deposited more than $900 million in the earn program, according to Mr. Winklevoss.

Crypto exchange Gemini has banded together with other creditors of Genesis to find a way for the crypto lender to return owed assets.

In an open letter to Mr. Silbert on Monday, Mr. Winklevoss said Genesis creditors have repeatedly tried to get together with Mr. Silbert and sent multiple proposals to him, including one delivered on Christmas Day.

“Despite this, you continue to refuse to get into a room with us to hash out a resolution,” Mr. Winklevoss wrote. “Every time we ask you for tangible engagement, you hide behind lawyers, investment bankers, and process. After six weeks, your behavior is not only completely unacceptable, it is unconscionable.”

Mr. Silbert responded on Twitter, saying his company had delivered a proposal on Dec. 29 “and has not received any response.”

Mr. Winklevoss also said that Mr. Silbert’s parent company DCG owes $1.675 billion to its subsidiary Genesis. Mr. Silbert replied on Twitter that DCG didn’t borrow $1.675 billion from Genesis and is current on all loans outstanding.

Mr. Silbert said in a letter to investors in November that DCG owes Genesis about $575 million that is due in May 2023, in addition to a $1.1 billion promissory note to Genesis due in June 2032.

Earlier this year, DCG took on liabilities from Genesis after the crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital defaulted on the $2.4 billion in loans it took out from Genesis, prompting the issuance of the $1.1 billion promissory note while DCG tries to recover assets from Three Arrows’ liquidation proceedings.

Spokespeople for Gemini and DCG declined to comment beyond Mr. Winklevoss’s and Mr. Silbert’s tweets.

This isn’t the first dispute between crypto titans to spill onto Twitter in recent weeks. Sam Bankman-Fried of FTX and Changpeng Zhao of Binance sniped at each other shortly before FTX imploded in November.

Mr. Bankman-Fried is likely to appear in court Tuesday to enter his plea to fraud charges by U.S. prosecutors. He is likely to plead not guilty, the Journal reported.

WSJ : Get Ready for the Richcession

Get Ready for the Richcession
Well-off Americans could get hurt more than usual in the next downturn

Economic downturns are usually horrible for poor people, bad for the middle class and an inconvenience for the rich. But if the economy enters a recession in 2023, or even if it manages to narrowly evade one, it might be the well-heeled who take a bigger hit than usual.

Call it the richcession.

Other than a small number of ascetics, nobody likes being poor. Doing without, living with so little savings that setbacks such as illness or job loss can be debilitating, is an ever-present source of stress. But for many poorer people, the years since the Covid crisis struck have been a bit easier financially than the years that preceded it. Several rounds of government relief helped them weather the early stages of the pandemic, and now a tight job market is providing them with wage gains that are reducing inflation’s bite. Federal Reserve figures show that the net worth of households in the bottom fifth by income was 42% higher in the third quarter than at the end of 2019, and up 17% from the end of 2021. A wage tracker developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta shows that the 12-month moving average of annualized monthly wage growth for workers in the bottom quartile by income was 7.4% as of November.

With the important caveat that they were starting off from much higher bases, percentage gains for the rich have been more muted. Household net worth for the top fifth was 22% higher in the third quarter than before the pandemic, and was down 7.1% from the end of 2021—a consequence of the falling stock market. Paychecks haven’t risen as much, either, with the Atlanta Fed measure showing average annualized monthly wage growth for workers in the top quartile was 4.8%.

Recent layoffs have also inordinately affected higher-income workers. Many of the tech companies that have made headlines with layoff announcements pay extremely well. Securities filings show that the median worker at Facebook parent Meta Platforms made $295,785 in 2021, for example, while the average worker at Twitter made $232,626. And layoffs at those places where the typical worker is less well paid, such as Amazon.com, have largely been aimed at white-collar workers.

The consolation for higher-income workers who are laid off is that it should be relatively easier for them to find new work than it is for poorer people who lose their jobs. That is because the job skills of the more highly educated are generally more transferable than the skills of other workers. But they will still be in for a period of belt tightening, and they might not get paid quite so well at their new jobs as they were at their old ones.

Meanwhile, even though big-company layoffs have been making headlines, so far they haven’t made much of a dent in overall employment statistics. This is in part because industries that aren’t as well-represented in the stock market, and that typically employ more lower- and middle-income workers, are still straining to hire workers. In November the leisure and hospitality sector was 980,000 jobs short of its February 2020 employment level. Employment in healthcare and social assistance only recovered to its prepandemic levels in September. This is a job category that, in part because of the needs of an aging population, grew even when overall U.S. unemployment shot higher after the 2008 financial crisis. To return to its growth trend over the decade preceding the pandemic, it would need to add about 1.1 million jobs.

That need for workers—especially as more Americans engage in services such as dining out—is part of why even among those economists expecting a recession in the coming year, many don’t think the job market will take a severe hit. This makes poorer Americans better positioned than usual to handle a weak economy. Not only are their finances in relatively good condition, they might be less likely to experience severe job losses.

Heading into the new year, businesses that cater to the well-off might be in for disappointment, while those that favor the hoi polloi over the hoity-toity might do better. And if there is a recession, the economy could be on much more equal footing as it begins to recover than is usually the case.

FT : Moderna/BioNTech: cancer vaccines will show mRNA not a one-trick pony

Moderna/BioNTech: cancer vaccines will show mRNA not a one-trick pony
Success in battle against Covid does not ensure success against tumours, but should narrow the odds

After riding high for much of the pandemic, mRNA vaccine pioneers came down to earth in 2022. By mid-June, the share prices of both Massachusetts-based Moderna and Germany’s BioNTech had more than halved. But investors’ excitement was rekindled a few weeks ago when Moderna and partner Merck published a promising set of melanoma trial results. After five decades of failed attempts, cancer vaccines are set for a breakthrough.

Unlike normal vaccines, these shots will treat, not prevent, the disease. Using mRNA technology should prompt the immune system to destroy mutated cells, often by tailoring them to the recipient’s tumour. That is the case in the Mod­er­na melanoma trial. Its mR­NA vac­cine, com­bined with Mer­ck’s im­munother­a­py, cut the risk of lat­er-stage melanoma re­cur­rence or death by 44 per cent in high-risk patients compared with immunotherapy alone.

The 27 per cent — or $16.8bn — jump in Moderna’s market value over two days following the announcement reflected investors’ wider hopes for cancer vaccines. Assuming a 50 to 75 per cent probability of success, the later-stage melanoma treatment market is worth up to $5bn to the company.

That would be worth $9 to $15 a share, says Jefferies. The figure is conservative. If the technology worked against other tumours, the value would be multiples of that.

Against this, there is no guarantee that the next phase of the clinical trials will be as encouraging as the last. Even if the vaccine proves its worth against melanoma, it might fail to work against other types of tumours.

Success in the battle against Covid-19 does not ensure success against cancer, but should narrow the odds. While many innovative biotechs are struggling to raise funds, a successful coronavirus vaccine has left Moderna with about $7bn of net cash. BioNTech has double that. They gained cash and knowhow in the pandemic. That can now be applied to other urgent medical needs.

TechCrunch : Micromobility in limbo: Takeaways from Paris and LA

Micromobility in limbo: Takeaways from Paris and LA

Shared electric scooters came onto the scene five years ago with a promising vision of getting people out of cars and onto greener modes of transportation. Yet despite billions in VC money and plenty of hype, the future that micromobility companies promised still hasn’t quite arrived.

In cities like Paris, most people aren’t replacing car trips with shared e-scooter jaunts in a meaningful way; the cost of riding scooters makes them an expensive option for last-mile transit connections and equitable access; and the public disclosures of Bird and Helbiz have shown us that achieving profitability is incredibly difficult. Plus, cities that allowed shared e-scooter companies in their midsts are increasingly making it difficult for scooter companies to operate sustainably.

For the sake of traffic flow and carbon emissions, there need to be alternatives to cars. Are shared e-scooters the answer to that, or are they just another shitty option? What have we gained by introducing shared micromobility to cities?

We decided to take a look at two cities that were at the forefront of the e-scooter revolution – Los Angeles and Paris. The former has garnered a reputation of being a bit of a free-for-all, with a laissez-faire capitalist regulatory approach that allows multiple operators to compete for rides and space. The latter has some of the strictest regulations in the game, including limited operator permits, and in fact is still considering banning shared e-scooters entirely.

“From a societal perspective, I’d be more concerned about e-scooters leaving Los Angeles than Paris,” David Zipper, a visiting fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Taubman Center for State and Local Government, told TechCrunch. “Paris is so dense and has a great metro. It’s possible scooters there are replacing forms of transportation that are even greener. LA is different. It’s so car dominated and hungry for alternatives to the automobile.”

Despite that apparent hunger, two scooter operators – Lyft and Spin – recently exited the Los Angeles area, blaming a lack of favorable regulations and too much competition, which apparently made it difficult to turn a profit. In total, there are still six operators in LA – Bird, Lime, Veo, Superpedestrian, Wheels (now owned by Helbiz), and Tuk Tuk, a new entrant.

The fact that both cities – one sprawling, the other dense; one under-regulated (so say the shared scooter companies) with several operators, the other highly regulated with fewer operators – still haven’t quite got it right with e-scooters raises a key question. What type of market, if any, is the right one?


Paris: To ban or not to ban?

If ever there were a city where you’d think shared e-scooters would thrive, it’s Paris. The city is one of the most densely populated in Europe. Most households don’t own a car, and if they do, they use them rarely. And Paris is led by Mayor Anne Hidalgo, an advocate for the reclamation of public space from roads and vehicles for a more liveable, “15-minute city.” In her time in office, Hidalgo has removed parking spots, turned streets into walkable areas and opened new bike lanes.

And yet, Paris is in the midst of potentially banning its 15,000 shared e-scooters as politicians from several parties call on Hidalgo not to renew the contracts of Lime, Dott and Tier when they expire in February 2023. She is expected to make her decision any day now, and indeed there are some rumors floating around that she already has.

Paris has been an important market for the e-scooter industry at large, but the city has chafed against the vehicles, citing safety incidents, some of which were fatal.

Over the years, Paris has responded to safety issues with increasingly strict regulations. Last summer, following the death of someone who was hit by two women riding a scooter near the Seine, Paris implemented “slow zones” for scooters. A year later, the whole city turned into a slow zone, with shared e-scooter speeds capped at just over 6 miles per hour.

Despite these harsh regulations, the city is still on the verge of saying goodbye to shared scooters forever.

Shocked. Appalled. Frustrated. These are the feelings I had upon first hearing the news of the potential ban. So what if there are accidents? Car accidents happen all the time! Boohoo to your complaints about scooters on sidewalks! Build better bike lanes, then!

But looking at the scattered statistics of how scooters are used in Paris, it’s possible that scooters aren’t providing the value that cities need – namely, limiting car usage.

Lime told TechCrunch that 90% of its fleet in Paris is used everyday, and a scooter trip starts every four seconds in the city. In 2021, over 1.2 million scooter riders, 85% of whom were Parisian residents, took a total of 10 million rides across all three operators. Lime estimated that could have replaced 1.6 million car trips. Could have, but did they?

One study from 2021 found that e-scooter users in Paris are mainly men aged 18 to 29, have a high educational level, and usually jump on a scooter for travel time savings. Most riders (72%) in the study said they shifted from walking and public transportation, not cars. Another survey of French scooter riders found that shared scooters were “more likely to replace walking trips than other modes of transport.”

These results aren’t limited to Paris. A survey among customers who were registered with five different shared e-scooter apps in Norway in the fall of 2021 found that in all circumstances except for night rides, e-scooters most often replace walking. E-scooters do replace cars with longer e-scooter trips if the user is male, if the e-scooter is privately owned, and to destinations poorly served by public transport, the study showed.

What is getting in the way of the ultimate goal – to shift travelers away from cars? Perhaps most people, in Paris at least, wouldn’t use a car anyway because the city is walkable and public transportation is sufficient. Or, maybe would-be car drivers and taxi riders just need more time to get used to the concept of scooter riding as a way of life. Or, maybe scooters just aren’t reliable as forms of transport for longer journeys.

Fluctuo, an aggregator of shared mobility data, found the average scooter trip length in Paris was 2.67 kilometers in July 2022 and 2.53 kilometers in November. A long enough journey that you might prefer not to walk it, but too short to drive it in a place like Paris.

Whether scooters are getting people out of cars or not, they’re certainly popular in Paris. A September Ipsos poll commissioned by Lime, Dott and Tier (and therefore taken with a grain of salt) found that most Parisians agree e-scooters are part of the daily mobility of the city and are consistent with City Hall’s broader transport policy. Most of the respondents (68%) said they are satisfied with the number of self-service scooters on the streets of Paris, while a quarter indicated they would actually like to see more.

And in response to the potential ban, a recent petition launched by a Paris resident has garnered more than 19,000 signatures in opposition.

Hannah Landau, Lime’s communications manager for France and southern Europe, told TechCrunch a ban would make Paris a global outlier.

“No major city in the world that introduced a shared e-scooter service has permanently banned them,” she said. “In fact, the major global trend today is cities renewing their programs – such as London – or even expanding them with more vehicles or larger service areas (NYC, Chicago, Washington D.C., Rome, Madrid, Lyon).”

Lime, Dott and Tier have put forward a variety of measures to Paris’ city hall, which they say will address safety concerns and ensure a renewal of scooter licenses next year. Among the proposals are a joint campaign to raise awareness about traffic laws; a fine system that uses cameras on public roads; expanding use of scooter ADAS to prevent sidewalk riding; and equipping scooters with registration plates.

Among major cities, Paris may be unique in weighing a blanket ban, but other locales have recently shown an appetite for limiting scooters, including Stockholm, Tenerife, Spain, Boston College and Fordham University.

– Rebecca Bellan

Let’s add a couple more wheels back into this discussion. Yes, I’m about to get personal about the automobile. Buckle up!

Automakers rewired American cities over the last century, and if you ask me, we’re all suffering for it – especially Angelenos. Gas-powered cars, SUVs and trucks infamously clog LA’s arteries. They muck up the air, driving climate change and health issues alike. Plus, a driver in an SUV once hit me while I was standing on the sidewalk, innocently looking for a nearby ramen joint. See, I told you it was personal!

All this is to say that, as an occasional driver and grudge-bearing pedestrian (the kind who bellows, “I’m walkin’ here!” in a vaguely New York accent), my heart aches when I see micromobility operators bail on cities, as Spin, Bolt and Lyft have in LA.

This isn’t because I ride scooters regularly, and it’s not because scooters are now scarce (a block from my apartment in central LA, I can find several Limes and Links on sidewalks and in the crooks of curbs). I simply want to see cars reined in, to rebalance the city around public transit, walking, biking and even scooting — whatever it takes to free up streets and reduce fumes. But what future do scooters and the like have here, given the recent exits, and Bird’s financial struggles to boot?

That depends on who you ask. At least one operator — Lime — says things have never been better in Tinseltown. A spokesperson recently told us that Los Angeles is Lime’s biggest American market today.

While acknowledging LA’s shortcomings for scooters, including its sprawling geography, the spokesperson likened 2022 to a “wow moment” that showed how “micromobility is here to stay.” Lime credited its local staff, work with city officials and investments in hardware for the apparently strong year, but the company did not respond when TechCrunch asked if its LA operations are currently profitable. Lime is privately held, so we don’t get as much insight into it as we do Lyft and Bird.

Lime’s experience in LA may be an outlier. Both Spin and Lyft told TechCrunch that they needed to strike new, longer-term deals with municipalities here in order to return. “In a nutshell: The challenge with LA is that it is an open vendor market with no vehicle cap,” Spin’s chief executive Philip Reinckens said in an email to TechCrunch. “This had led to an imbalance of vehicle supply to rider demand as operators over-saturate the market.”

“A long-term arrangement for limited operators would be a necessary condition to consider re-entry,” Reinckens added.

Santa Monica, a coastal city in LA county, already seems to be on board with this approach. Next year, Santa Monica says it plans to limit the number of permitted scooter operators from four to just one to two.

Zooming out: Greater LA area has a mixed reputation among cyclists, but officials have shown some willingness to accommodate things other than cars lately. There are a few interesting public initiatives underway, including recently announced efforts to promote cycling in South LA, North Hollywood and San Pedro. It’s no revolution, but it could make the city a bit safer for all lightweight modes of transportation, including e-scooters.

Taken together, LA’s scooter free-for-all seems destined for consolidation, leaving fewer operators with a whole lot of ground to cover. But shared e-scooters on the whole also don’t seem to be at risk of getting the boot, much unlike Paris.

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