>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 8th of May 2023 V3(++)

>>> Up
* American Air Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $29
* Bambuser Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 3.50 kronor
* CaixaBank Raised to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 4 euros (++)
* Dropbox Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT $25
* FM Mattsson Mora Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 70 kronor (+)
* Grieg Seafood Raised to Buy at Danske Bank Markets (++)
* IAG Raised to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 174.74 pence (++)
* Intesa Sanpaolo Raised to Buy at Banca Akros (ESN) (++)
* INVISIO AB Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 245 kronor
* Maersk Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 13,400 kroner (+)
* Odfjell Drilling Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 30 kroner (++)
* PostNL Raised to Hold at Bank Degroof Petercam (++)
* Raiffeisen Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT 15 euros
* Sanoma Raised to Buy at OP Corporate Bank; PT 9.70 euros (++)
* Sparebanken Sor Raised to Buy at Arctic Securities
* Volue Raised to Buy at Nordea; PT 23 kroner

>>> Down
* Apranga Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 3 euros
* Ence Cut to Neutral at Alantra Equities; PT 3.94 euros (++)
* Rational Cut to Reduce at Baader Helvea; PT 635 euros

>>> Initiation
* Alcoa Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $54
* Archer Rated New Buy at SEB Equities; PT 1.50 kroner
* Atlantic Lithium Rated New Overweight at Wilsons; PT 58.74 pence (+)
* Enel Reinstated Buy at SocGen; PT 7.70 euros (++)
* Italian Sea Group Rated New Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 11 euros (++)
* Siem Offshore Rated New Buy at Fearnley; PT 27 kroner (+)

>>> Call
* PostNL 1Q Parcel Volumes Ahead of Expectations, Jefferies Says (+)
* Raiffeisen Raised to Neutral at Citi After ‘Very Strong’ 1Q

FT : US faces ‘constitutional crisis’ over debt limit impasse, Yellen warns

US faces ‘constitutional crisis’ over debt limit impasse, Yellen warns

US Treasury secretary Janet Yellen has warned of a “constitutional crisis” that risks economic and financial disaster if Congress does not increase the federal debt limit, with the government in danger of running out of cash in the absence of new borrowing capacity.

Her comments came as President Joe Biden prepared to meet congressional leaders in the White House for talks to break the fiscal impasse over lifting the debt ceiling, which Yellen has said could be breached as early as June 1.

“If Congress fails to meet its responsibility, there are simply no good options,” she said in an interview on ABC’s This Week on Sunday. Biden administration officials have considered whether they could invoke the 14th amendment of the US Constitution to continue issuing new debt to pay social security recipients, bondholders, government employees and others without legislative approval.

A clause in the amendment states that “the validity of the public debt of the United States, authorised by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned”. Economists and constitutional experts are divided over whether circumventing Congress in this way would be legal.

The US “should not get to the point where we need to consider whether the president can go on issuing debt. This would be a constitutional crisis,” Yellen said.

Asked whether Biden would invoke the 14th amendment, Yellen said she did not yet want to consider emergency options, but using the clause would be “among the not-good options”. Raising the debt ceiling was Congress’s job, she added.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 8th of May 2023 V3(++)

>>> Up
* American Air Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $29
* Bambuser Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 3.50 kronor
* Dropbox Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT $25
* FM Mattsson Mora Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 70 kronor (+)
* Grieg Seafood Raised to Buy at Danske Bank Markets (++)
* IAG Raised to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 174.74 pence (++)
* Intesa Sanpaolo Raised to Buy at Banca Akros (ESN) (++)
* INVISIO AB Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 245 kronor
* Maersk Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 13,400 kroner (+)
* Odfjell Drilling Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 30 kroner (++)
* PostNL Raised to Hold at Bank Degroof Petercam (++)
* Raiffeisen Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT 15 euros
* Sanoma Raised to Buy at OP Corporate Bank; PT 9.70 euros (++)
* Sparebanken Sor Raised to Buy at Arctic Securities
* Volue Raised to Buy at Nordea; PT 23 kroner

>>> Down
* Apranga Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 3 euros
* Ence Cut to Neutral at Alantra Equities; PT 3.94 euros (++)
* Rational Cut to Reduce at Baader Helvea; PT 635 euros

>>> Initiation
* Alcoa Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $54
* Archer Rated New Buy at SEB Equities; PT 1.50 kroner
* Atlantic Lithium Rated New Overweight at Wilsons; PT 58.74 pence (+)
* Siem Offshore Rated New Buy at Fearnley; PT 27 kroner (+)

>>> Call
* PostNL 1Q Parcel Volumes Ahead of Expectations, Jefferies Says (+)
* Raiffeisen Raised to Neutral at Citi After ‘Very Strong’ 1Q

FT : Australian pension fund buys $660mn stake in European mobile towers

Australian pension fund buys $660mn stake in European mobile towers
UniSuper is latest ‘superfund’ to target deals outside home market with investment in Vantage Towers

Australia’s universities pension fund has taken a A$1bn ($680mn) stake in Vodafone’s former mobile towers business Vantage, as more “superfunds” look to Europe for investment opportunities.

UniSuper — a A$115bn fund which will hold a 5 per cent stake in Vantage Towers — joins Vodafone, KKR, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund and activist Elliott Management as shareholders in one of Europe’s largest masts businesses, covering 10 countries.

The deal is the latest sign that Australia’s growing superannuation industry — the world’s fifth-largest pension system at A$3tn — is looking outside its home market for growth.

Another major superannuation fund, Aware Super, opened an office in Europe last year and said it would invest A$16bn there and in the US over the next three years. AustralianSuper, Australia’s largest pension fund, with stakes in the King’s Cross and Canada Water property developments in London, plans to spend £23bn in Europe and the US in the next five years.

UniSuper is an active investor in Australian infrastructure. It backed the A$23.6bn consortium that took Sydney Airport private last year, rolling its stake into the unlisted vehicle in one of the country’s largest ever deals. It is also the largest shareholder in toll road operator Transurban Group.

The Vantage Towers deal, however, represents one of its most significant moves overseas, as superfunds look for opportunities to geographically diversify their investments. It is the university fund’s first direct unlisted infrastructure investment overseas.

Sandra Lee, UniSuper’s head of private markets, said it would work with KKR and other shareholders to deliver on Vantage’s strategy.

“This is a high-quality defensive infrastructure investment with strong fundamentals and growth prospects. It adds to UniSuper’s approximately $15bn private markets portfolio and is positioned to deliver excellent results for our members over the long term,” Lee said in a statement.

Mobile towers have become a focus for infrastructure investors in recent years as telecoms companies have sold off the steel masts — which carry mobile radio equipment but can also generate predictable cash flows due to long-term leasing contracts — to free up funds to invest in network upgrades.

Vodafone carved out Vantage Towers to unlock value on its balance sheet. It floated the Düsseldorf-based company two years ago, keeping a majority stake in an effort to retain exposure to the value created by consolidation of the sector.

Vodafone moved to delist Vantage and sold 50 per cent of the tower company to KKR, Global Infrastructure Partners and PIF last year to reduce its debt. Separately, Elliott acquired 5.6 per cent of Vantage’s voting rights in February.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 8th of May 2023 V2(+)

>>> Up
* American Air Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $29
* Bambuser Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 3.50 kronor
* Dropbox Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT $25
* FM Mattsson Mora Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 70 kronor (+)
* INVISIO AB Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 245 kronor
* Maersk Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 13,400 kroner (+)
* Raiffeisen Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT 15 euros
* Sparebanken Sor Raised to Buy at Arctic Securities
* Volue Raised to Buy at Nordea; PT 23 kroner

>>> Down
* Apranga Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 3 euros
* Rational Cut to Reduce at Baader Helvea; PT 635 euros

>>> Initiation
* Alcoa Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $54
* Archer Rated New Buy at SEB Equities; PT 1.50 kroner
* Atlantic Lithium Rated New Overweight at Wilsons; PT 58.74 pence (+)
* Siem Offshore Rated New Buy at Fearnley; PT 27 kroner (+)

>>> Call
* PostNL 1Q Parcel Volumes Ahead of Expectations, Jefferies Says (+)
* Raiffeisen Raised to Neutral at Citi After ‘Very Strong’ 1Q

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Maersk (DP4B TH) +1.6%
  • Novo Nordisk (NOVC TH) +1.1%
  • BAE (BSP TH) +1.1%
  • OMV (OMV TH) +1%
  • Norsk Hydro (NOH1 TH) +0.9%
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) -0.8%
  • Qiagen (QIA TH) -0.8%
  • Iberdrola (IBE1 TH) -0.8%
  • Ferrari (2FE TH) -0.9%
    • Ferrari Shifts Up Gear on Ebitda, Orders Strong: Company Outlook
  • UniCredit (CRIN TH) -0.9%
  • HelloFresh (HFG TH) -0.9%
  • Compass Group (XGR2 TH) -1.3%
  • Wienerberger (WIB TH) -1.4%
  • Rational (RAA TH) -2.1%

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Vonovia (VNA TH) +0.6%
    • Vonovia Reader Interest Increases
  • Infineon (IFX TH) +0.5%
  • Daimler Truck (DTG TH) +0.5%
  • Covestro (1COV TH) -0.5%
    • Covestro Company Roadshow Scheduled By Baader Bank for May 8
MDAX:
  • Talanx (TLX TH) +1.2%
  • Jungheinrich (JUN3 TH) +1.2%
    • Jungheinrich 1Q Ebit Beats Estimates
  • Aroundtown (AT1 TH) +1.1%
  • Evonik (EVK TH) +0.8%
  • K+S (SDF TH) +0.8%
  • Telefonica Deutschland (O2D TH) -0.7%
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) -0.8%
  • TeamViewer SE (TMV TH) -0.8%
  • Evotec SE (EVT TH) -1.5%
SDAX:
  • PNE AG (PNE3 TH) +2%
  • SMA Solar (S92 TH) +1.4%
  • BayWa (BYW6 TH) +1%
  • VERBIO Vereinigte (VBK TH) +0.9%
  • DIC Asset (DIC TH) +0.9%
  • Ceconomy (CEC TH) -1%
  • Wacker Neuson (WAC TH) -1.1%
  • 1&1 (DRI TH) -1.5%
  • Synlab (SYAB TH) -1.6%
  • Heidelberger Druck (HDD TH) -1.9%

FT : Two Alzheimer’s drugs offer hope to patients after decades of waiting

Two Alzheimer’s drugs offer hope to patients after decades of waiting
In trials, the medications slowed the progress of a degenerative disease that affects 50mn worldwide

When Lori Weiss was diagnosed with mild cognitive impairment because of Alzheimer’s disease she thought it was a death sentence, given there were no approved treatments that could slow progress of the debilitating disease.

But after enrolling in a trial of an experimental therapy developed by Eli Lilly, the 65-year-old former teacher says her memory has improved and she is able to do things she previously found difficult.

“I’m able to drive again. I have freedom,” said Weiss, who was one of more than 1,700 participants in the late-stage trial of a drug called donanemab.

This week US drugmaker Lilly published positive results from the trial, raising hopes among patients and doctors for a new class of drugs being developed to treat Alzheimer’s. It also generated excitement across the pharmaceutical industry, which is enticed by the prospect of selling medicines to the more than 50mn people worldwide who suffer from the disease.

The trial showed donanemab slowed progression of the disease by 35 per cent compared with a placebo over an 18-month period. Although there is no evidence that the drug can reverse the symptoms of Alzheimer’s, the trial showed the decline in patients’ ability to perform daily tasks was 40 per cent lower for those on donanemab.

Lilly said it anticipates US regulators will approve the drug later this year based on the successful trial results.

The results mark the second significant breakthrough in a year for a class of drugs targeting a disease that is the most common cause of dementia and for which there is no cure. It comes as a new generation of blood tests for Alzheimer’s are being developed which offer the tantalising prospect of early detection and treatment of the condition for the first time.

In January the US Food and Drug Administration approved lecanemab, a drug co-developed by Japanese drugmaker Eisai and US biotech Biogen, under an accelerated process. In a late-stage trial the drug slowed the rate of cognitive decline in patients by 27 per cent when compared to placebo.

Both drugs work by reducing the build-up of sticky amyloid plaques in the brain known as beta-amyloid, which are at the centre of an acrimonious scientific debate about what causes Alzheimer’s.

Almost two dozen clinical trials on drugs seeking to treat Alzheimer’s by reducing these plaques have failed since 2003, prompting scepticism among some experts that removing amyloid can slow progression of the disease.


Lori Weiss, who has Alzheimer’s, has been encouraged by the effects of Eli Lilly’s trial drug donanemab © Alzheimer’s Association
The controversial approval by the FDA of another amyloid reducing drug called aducanumab in 2021, despite conflicting evidence that it slowed the rate of cognitive decline, further inflamed the debate.

Lilly told the Financial Times the results of the donanemab and lecanemab trials together prove the “amyloid hypothesis”, the theory holding that sticky amyloid plaques are the main cause of Alzheimer’s disease.

“As you look across the class you should be reassured about the ‘amyloid hypothesis’ because you can see in medicines, not just ours but in others that robustly remove plaque, you see clinical benefit,” said Anne White, president of Lilly Neuroscience.

Donanemab showed strong efficacy in removing the plaques in the trial, with just over half of trial participants able to complete their course of treatment within a year as they achieved the target for amyloid clearance.

The Alzheimer’s Association, an advocacy group, said the trial results were the “strongest” released to date for an amyloid-reducing drug and suggested an “inflection point” for treatment of the disease. Many experts welcomed the Lilly data as an important step forward but cautioned that donanemab was not a cure and the full results of the trial have not yet been published and need to be closely studied.

“While this result is greatly encouraging, it is clear we still have a lot more work to do,” said Dr Ian Musgrave, senior lecturer in pharmacology at University of Adelaide, Australia. “Despite near total removal of amyloid plaque, the disease still did progress, although at a much slower rate than without treatment.”

Scientists are pursuing other targets beyond sticky plaques in their pursuit of Alzheimer’s therapies, including inflammation in the brain. But none of these are as advanced as lecanemab and donanemab.

However, there are concerns over whether the slowdown in cognitive decline achieved by both drugs is clinically meaningful and worth the risks posed by potentially dangerous side effects.

Rob Howard, a professor of old-age psychiatry at University College London, said slowing the progression of the disease by 35 per cent sounded superficially impressive. However, the absolute differences between donanemab and placebo in cognition and function, apparent from the trial, were so tiny that they would be unnoticed by patients and their families.

“This raises the question of whether taking the drug is worth the risks, given that three people died during the trials from side effects,” he said.

Both lecanemab and donanemab can cause severe side effects such as brain swelling and bleeding, which can be fatal. This will place a heavy burden on doctors when they recommend treatment, although the lack of alternatives suggests high patient demand for the drugs.

The high price of the drugs — lecanemab is priced at $26,500 per year — and tough restrictions imposed by the US government on reimbursement by publicly funded health schemes for amyloid-reducing treatments are other hurdles.

In the wake of the controversy over the FDA approval of Biogen’s aducanumab, the US Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services said only patients taking part in a clinical trial would benefit from reimbursement. It was the first time CMS had imposed such restrictions on a drug approved by the FDA and it limits the number of patients on amyloid drugs to a few thousand, rather than the 6mn Alzheimer’s sufferers in the US.

“Unfortunately we are in uncharted territory,” said Robert Egge, chief public policy officer at the Alzheimer’s Association.

He said every day that reimbursement is denied about 2,000 Alzheimer’s sufferers in the US move past the window of eligibility for amyloid-reducing drugs, as they are only targeting early-stage patients.

Eisai said it is encouraged by “ongoing productive discussions” with CMS about lifting the restrictions. This could happen in July when lecanemab, which has been approved under an accelerated process, is expected to be granted full approval by the FDA.

For Alzheimer’s patients such as Weiss, a change of policy cannot come quick enough, even if concerns still exist about the safety and efficacy of the new drugs.

“These drugs give people a chance to get more years of their life back and live normal lives without having to face being in a nursing home,” said Weiss. “I’m still painting and going to parties with friends.”

WSJ : VW’s New CEO Expected to Replace Management of Ailing Software Unit

VW’s New CEO Expected to Replace Management of Ailing Software Unit
Delays caused by software venture Cariad led to Oliver Blume’s anticipated move

BERLIN—Volkswagen VOW 1.16%increase; green up pointing triangle Chief Executive Officer Oliver Blume, in his first major restructuring move since becoming chief last year, is expected to replace the management of the company’s struggling software unit after it caused delays to new model launches, according to people familiar with the matter.

The decision to remove Dirk Hilgenberg, head of the unit called Cariad, finance chief Thomas Sedran, and Lynn Longo, a Michigan native who serves as Cariad’s chief technology officer, could be announced as early as this week, possibly before VW’s planned shareholder meeting on Wednesday, the people said.

Messrs. Hilgenberg and Sedran and Ms. Longo couldn’t be reached for comment. The changes at Cariad were earlier reported by the German-language Business Insider news site on Saturday.

While Mr. Blume is set to remove the executives from their current roles, one of the people familiar with the matter said they could be offered other jobs within the VW group in Europe or North America.

The expected decision to replace existing management comes after an intense analysis of Cariad conducted by VW that came to the conclusion that current management lacked strong tech experience and leadership skills in a restructuring situation, this person said.

VW executives have said publicly that VW remains committed to Cariad as a business unit. But the person said that the unit needed a new structure focused on fast, incremental software development in sync with the schedules of product launches at the brands.

Mr. Blume hasn’t settled on candidates for new management at Cariad, the person added.

Cariad was created by Mr. Blume’s predecessor, Herbert Diess, in a bid to produce advanced software including self-driving capabilities for the VW group’s brands by the middle of the decade.

The move to shun big tech software providers such as Google and Apple in favor of inhouse development was bold and risky. VW spent billions and had to recruit an army of software developers and coordinate efforts across its diverse brands. Despite the effort, Cariad got mired in the complexities of building advanced software, leading to a string of delays to model launches.

Instead of paving VW’s path toward overtaking electric-car market leader Tesla, Cariad held the company’s brands back from moving faster. The launch of VW’s first all-electric model built on in-house EV technology in 2019 was marred by glitchy software. Instead of delaying the launch again, VW decided to release the vehicle with an incomplete software package.

Mr. Diess hired Mr. Hilgenberg from BMW in 2020 to fix the group’s software organization. Although Mr. Hilgenberg made some progress, Cariad continued to stumble, causing the planned launches of breakthrough all-electric models—the Audi’s Q6 e-tron and a battery-electric version of Porsche’s popular Macan SUV—to be delayed.

The troubles at Cariad added to pressure on Mr. Diess, who was ousted last year. Mr. Blume, his successor, serves in a dual role as CEO of VW and Porsche.

One of Mr. Blume’s first decisions after taking control in September was to put development of Cariad’s most futuristic projects on ice and focus on getting the most current model launches back on schedule.

He scrapped plans for an ultramodern factory in Wolfsburg, Germany, to build a new high-end VW-branded EV with Cariad’s planned advanced software, instructing the unit instead to focus on getting the delayed Audi and Porsche models on the road.

Mr. Blume has also been more open to collaborating on software with outside developers, though he has stated publicly numerous times that automotive software controlling the car’s core operations shouldn’t be open to developers such as Google or Apple.

Mr. Blume has also spoken publicly about his talks with tech companies such as Apple and Google and his interest in having their apps in VW vehicles.

VW recently announced that it would build its own app store, accessible via the car’s display screens.