WSJ : Chinese Firm Signs $540 Million Oil-and-Gas Deal in Afghanistan

Chinese Firm Signs $540 Million Oil-and-Gas Deal in Afghanistan
Beijing is expanding its presence in Central Asia after the U.S.’s exit from Afghanistan, with an eye on mineral riches

KABUL—A Chinese company signed a $540 million deal with Afghanistan to develop an oil-and-gas field, as Beijing moves to secure access to the country’s vast mineral wealth after the exit of American troops.

In the biggest deal struck since the Taliban’s takeover in 2021, Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas Co. Ltd. said that over the next three years it would develop the field in the Amu Darya basin in northern Afghanistan, according to the Afghan regime.

Afghanistan’s aid-dependent economy collapsed after the August 2021 withdrawal of American forces and the Taliban’s toppling of the U.S.-backed government. The regime, which hasn’t been recognized by any country, is trying to stabilize the economy by attracting investments that create jobs for poverty-stricken Afghans. Developing mines and hydrocarbon resources is seen as one of the few economic options.

Raffaello Pantucci, co-author of a book about China’s growing influence over its Muslim-majority neighbors, said that the estimated oil reserves at the Amu Darya site were modest, but the hope was that a giant gas field just across the border with Turkmenistan extended into Afghanistan—and that such a find could make it a linchpin for the economy, as it is for Turkmenistan.

“I don’t know if this is the start of a flood of Chinese deals, but we will continue to see a lot of Chinese companies nosing around in Afghanistan,” said Mr. Pantucci.

Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Taliban’s deputy prime minister for economic affairs, said at a contract-signing ceremony for the new field in Kabul on Thursday that his administration sought to build a sustainable economy for Afghanistan.

International aid to Afghanistan continues for now, with two-thirds of the population in need of assistance, but is in jeopardy since the Taliban announced a ban on women working in nongovernmental organizations. Girls and women are also being excluded from education. Many countries, including the U.S., along with the United Nations, have called on the Taliban to reverse its decisions.

American experts a decade ago estimated the value of Afghanistan’s mineral resources at $1 trillion, which include rare-earth minerals now used in electric cars. While war raged, this potential wealth was never exploited.

The Taliban have since imposed their rule on the entire country, providing some security, despite patchy opposition from remnants of the ousted government and Islamic State transnational jihadist group, which carries out attacks. The threat extends to the Chinese presence. After the bombing of a Chinese-owned hotel in Kabul in December, which was claimed by Islamic State, China advised its citizens to leave the country.

It is still the safest it has been in decades to develop Afghan mining and oil projects. However, the country’s rulers are under international sanctions, hindering Western companies from getting involved. That opens the way for China. Iran, another U.S. adversary, is also looking to win mining deals in Afghanistan.

“The progress of this project is a model for China-Afghanistan cooperation in major projects in energy and other fields,” said China’s ambassador in Kabul, Wang Yu.

He said that China wouldn’t interfere with Afghan internal affairs, and that the two sides would continue to discuss bringing Afghanistan into Beijing’s flagship Belt and Road Initiative, which builds infrastructure in developing countries.

The Taliban’s minister for minerals and petroleum, Shahabuddin Dilawar, said that the Amu Darya project would create 3,000 jobs for Afghans. He said the Afghan side has an initial 20% share in the project.

“I will make sure that our economy will grow in two to three years, and we will have people from abroad coming to Afghanistan to work,” he said.

Mr. Dilawar said that processing the oil from the field would take place in Afghanistan, although it is unclear whether China is willing to build a refinery there. He called on China to complete plans for developing the huge Mes Aynak copper mine, considered one of the world’s biggest unexploited resources of the metal.

Both the Amu Darya project and the Mes Aynak mine, which is located south of Kabul, were awarded to Chinese companies a decade ago, when the U.S.-backed government was in power. However, neither project was developed then, due largely to the war.

Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas, which didn’t respond to a request for comment, took over the Amu Darya project from China National Petroleum Corp., which originally won the contract.

FT : China’s housing market teeters between boom and bust

China’s housing market teeters between boom and bust
Citizens are still willing to pour their life savings into property, as long as prices keep rising

A significant change is on the cards for China’s real estate sector in 2023, according to reports from the country’s recent Central Economic Work Conference — the landmark event which sets the economic course for the coming year. The delegates insisted on one hand that “housing is for living not speculation”, but on the other, emphasised the critical importance of real estate to China’s economic growth. This statement sent real estate developers’ shares multiplying, to the delight of global investors.

But even if the worst time for China’s real estate sector is behind us, the country’s housing bubble remains a serious structural problem. Just this week, a local government finance vehicle in Guizhou province was allowed exceptional approval to delay its loan repayment to banks by 20 years.

Until the “three red lines” introduced two years ago to reduce borrowing, Chinese housing developers enjoyed a degree of leverage higher than that of their Japanese counterparts in the 1980s or US peers in 2008, especially if one accounts for presale and informal financing. To make things worse, Chinese homebuyers were offered versions of intergenerational and zero-deposit mortgages in much larger volumes than official statistics suggest.

Chinese first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, have become some of the most expensive in the world, with widening house-price-to-income ratios which are frustrating youngsters trying to get into the market. The media has even coined a new term, “six wallet”, to describe the way young couples have to tap their own two wallets, and those of all four of their parents, to buy a property.

Nonetheless, Chinese households are still willing to pour their life savings into property, as long as house prices keep rising. Camouflaged under the term “improvement housing”, which is supported by the CEWC, many Chinese homebuyers are expressly chasing potential returns from the investment they have known over the past two decades. This is strikingly similar to the behaviour of investors during the Japanese and US housing booms.

Managing speculators’ expectations during a run of rising prices is an art. If the message is too blunt and hawkish, it runs the risk of scaring the market and piercing the bubble. However, if it is not stern or explicit enough, the market may shrug off warnings and continue its buying spree. This is the Chinese government’s dilemma.

To cool housing speculation, policymakers have in the past 15 years implemented a series of curbs, all of which were eventually dropped. After all, China’s housing sector has become too big to fail. Following a few such curb-relax cycles, even the early sceptics are convinced that housing prices will never fall, and that government support will remain steadfast.

Their rationale is that since the housing sector brings critical fiscal revenues to local government and gross domestic product growth to Beijing, then as long as policymakers are pursuing high-speed growth, they cannot afford to withdraw their support for the housing market.

But that has changed. While the speed of growth remains an important policy goal, it is no longer the only one. Over the past few years, China has started a transition into a more financially sustainable, environmentally friendly, and socially inclusive growth.

The economic slowdown in 2022 presents some real tests for policymakers, not just concerning the real estate sector, but China’s future growth model. Recent policies are targeted at stabilising the housing market. However tempting it might be, returning to the mindset in which property is an engine of investment and growth would just be dangerous.

FT : Celsius founder Mashinsky sued for fraud by New York attorney-general

Celsius founder Mashinsky sued for fraud by New York attorney-general
Crypto lender’s former CEO ‘acted as a modern-day Robin Hood’ but misled investors, lawsuit alleges

Celsius Network founder Alex Mashinsky has been hit with a civil lawsuit from the New York attorney-general, which accuses the former head of the bankrupt crypto lender of defrauding hundreds of thousands of investors and flouting the state’s securities laws.

The 57-year-old, who established Celsius in 2017 and was running the business when it dramatically collapsed in July, had promoted the company “as a safe alternative to banks while concealing that [it] was actually engaged in risky investment strategies”, the lawsuit said.

Celsius’s bankruptcy was a watershed moment in the unprecedented market crash that hit the digital assets sector last summer. Other once-prominent firms including Three Arrows Capital also collapsed after a sharp downturn in the value of popular tokens such as bitcoin.

In a complaint filed on Thursday, the attorney-general’s office claimed Mashinsky acted as a “modern-day Robin Hood”, promising customers returns of up to 17 per cent via its Earn programme — which paid interest on cryptocurrency deposits — and urged users to stay invested even as the hole in the platform’s balance sheet grew larger.

They said Mashinsky had also failed to register as a salesperson for Celsius and as a securities and commodities dealer under New York law.

“Alex Mashinsky promised to lead investors to financial freedom but led them down a path of financial ruin,” New York attorney-general Letitia James said in a statement. “The law is clear that making false and unsubstantiated promises and misleading investors is illegal.”

Celsius froze customer withdrawals in June, and filed for bankruptcy the following month, revealing a more than $1bn deficit. In October, the FT reported that Mashinsky himself withdrew $10mn from Celsius just weeks before customer accounts were frozen, amid growing turmoil.

The AG’s office said a disabled veteran was among the New Yorkers to have lost money with Celsius, having invested a decade’s worth of savings totalling $36,000, while another disabled citizen making just $8 per hour lost his entire investment on the platform.

Should the AG’s suit succeed, Mashinsky could be barred from doing business in New York state and be forced to repay investors.
ex Mashinsky took control of Celsius trading strategy months before bankruptcy

A lawyer for Mashinsky did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the lawsuit. Mashinsky, who resigned as Celsius’ chief executive in September, previously said he was “very sorry about the difficult financial circumstances members of our community are facing”.

The AG’s suit comes after a ruling issued in an New York bankruptcy court on Wednesday found Celsius’s “unambiguous” terms of service made it clear that crypto assets deposited in the company’s Earn Accounts were Celsius’s property, ruling against some account holders who argued that they owned their deposits.

In July of last year, Celsius had approximately 600,000 accounts in its Earn programme. These accounts held crypto with a market value worth more than $4bn as of July 10. Celsius reported liabilities exceeding $5bn in a bankruptcy filing.

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Ryanair (RY4C TH) +3.3%
    • Ryanair Raises Profit Target After Strong Christmas Demand
  • Verbund (OEWA TH) +1.7%
    • Verbund Raised to Accumulate at Erste Group; PT 91.21 euros
  • Equinor (DNQ TH) +1.7%
    • Watch European Energy Stocks After Exxon’s Profit Warning
  • Aviva (GU81 TH) +1.2%
  • Zalando (ZAL TH) +0.7%
  • HSBC (HBC1 TH) +0.5%
    • European Banks Offer Earnings Momentum, HSBC Raised: Jefferies
  • Unilever (UNVB TH) -0.8%
    • Mounting Costs Could Pressure European Packaged-Food Performance
  • United Internet (UTDI TH) -0.9%
  • E.On (EOAN TH) -0.9%
  • Lanxess (LXS TH) -0.9%
  • HelloFresh (HFG TH) -1%
  • LVMH (MOH TH) -1%
  • TotalEnergies (TOTB TH) -1%
  • Telefonica Deutschland (O2D TH) -1%
  • TUI (TUI1 TH) -1.3%

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Zalando (ZAL TH) +0.9%
  • Vonovia (VNA TH) -0.6%
  • Linde (LIN TH) -0.6%
  • E.On (EOAN TH) -1%
MDAX:
  • Kion (KGX TH) +0.6%
  • Wacker Chemie (WCH TH) +0.4%
  • Aroundtown (AT1 TH) -1%
  • Telefonica Deutschland (O2D TH) -1%
  • ProSieben (PSM TH) -1.4%
SDAX:
  • Shop Apotheke (SAE TH) +2.9%
  • DIC Asset (DIC TH) -0.4%
    • DIC Asset Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 9 euros
  • SFC Energy (F3C TH) -1.4%
  • SMA Solar (S92 TH) -1.7%

>>> What to look at today - 5th of January 2023

Chinese stocks led gains across Asia while US and European equity futures fluctuated as investors balanced China’s reopening with cautious commentary from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed to the highest level since July in a rally led by Meituan and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. that signaled fresh appetite for mainland tech stocks. Shares in South Korea, Japan and Australia fluctuated but were broadly higher. Contracts for the Euro Stoxx 50 fell, while those for the S&P 500 swung between gains and losses. The minutes of the Fed’s December meeting showed many officials highlighted the need to curb inflation without slowing the economy too much, heartening some investors. Meanwhile, traders are returning to Chinese equities amid a growing conviction the relaxation of virus curbs will fuel a revival in consumption and spending. The yen strengthened against all its Group-of-10 peers, rebounding after a 1.2% decline versus the dollar on Wednesday. Treasuries gave up some of the prior day’s gains, while sovereign debt in Australia and New Zealand rallied.  Crude oil rose after falling 9.5% in the past two days, including the biggest daily decline since September on Wednesday. China’s complicated reopening is one factor that drove the drop. The price of gold whipsawed after touching the highest level since June on Wednesday. A private services index for China showed activities contracted at a slower pace in December. China will gradually reopen its border with Hong Kong, according to reports on Thursday, further buoying the outlook for the world’s second-largest economy.  US data released Wednesday showed improving supply chain conditions, declining input prices and slower demand — all developments the Fed would welcome. Still, Amazon.com Inc. said it is laying off more than 18,000 workers — a significantly bigger number than previously planned — in the latest sign that a technology slump is deepening. The nonfarm payrolls report on Friday will provide a clearer picture of the labor market. US After Hours SLP -2% slips on earnings; TMUS +1.8% higher on Q4 operating data; GERN -11.3% falls on offerings

Nikkei +0,40% Hang Seng +1,37% CSI +2,05% Shanghai +1,07% Shenzen +1,66%

Eur$ 1,0608 CNH 6,8794 CNY 6,8752 JPY 132,49 GBP 1,2030 CHF 0,9301 RUB 71,9550 TRY 18,7477 WTI$ 73,87 Gold 1,853 BTC 16,821 ETH 1,251

S&P -0,19% Nasdaq -0,29% EuroStoxx -0,33% FTSE -0,06% Dax -0,25% SMI

Macro :
- Fed Affirms Inflation Resolve, Pushes Back Against Rate-Cut Bets

Keep an eye on :
- ABBN SW : ABB Sells UK Technical Engineering Consultancy to TUV Rheinland
- BIFF LN : Energy Capital Gets Commitments From Additional Co-Investors
- BIIB US : Biogen May Gain Only 2%-5% on Alzheimer’s Win, Jefferies Says
- BMW GY : BMW Takes Cues From Apple With Radical Interior Overhaul
- BMW GY : BMW CEO Says Software Will Decide Future of Car Companies
- CSGN SW : Credit Suisse Raises $3.75 Billion Amid Flurry of New Bond Sales
- DTE GY : T-Mobile Tops Mobile Subscriber Estimates in Fourth Quarter
- DTY LN : UK Funeral Firm Dignity Soars After Revealing Takeover Talks
- JEF US : *JEFFERIES CLOSES UP 13%, NOTCHING BIGGEST GAIN SINCE APRIL 2009
- GLEN LN : Glencore Under New Climate Action Pressure Over Coal Cash Cow
- HOLN SW : Holcim Buys French Self-Leveling Screed Provider Chrono Chape
- ITP FP : Interparfums Prelim FY Sales Beats Estimates
- MUX GY : Mutares Sells JAPY Tech to Company’s Management; No Terms
- NYF SS : Nyfosa Board Member Engvall Sold SEK4.3m of Shares on Jan. 2
- RYA ID : Ryanair Jumps By Most Since March on Boosted Year Forecast
- STLA IM : Stellantis CEO Wants to Retain Agility to Invest Outside of Cars
- TE FP : Technip Energies Contract With Kuwait Oil Company Renewed
- UCG IM : UniCredit May Sell As Much As €1 Billion of Bad Loans in Jan: MF
- VIV FP : Vivendi Says Gameloft Appoints New CEO
- WDC US : Western Digital, Kioxia Are Said to Revive Merger Talks

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 5th of January 2023

>>> Up
* Cboe Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse
* CME Group Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse
* Generali Raised to Outperform at Exane
* Hannover Re PT Raised to 220 euros from 184 euros at RBC
* Scor PT Raised to 32 euros from 26 euros at RBC
* Suedzucker Raised to Buy at Bankhaus Metzler; PT 22.40 euros
* Verbund Raised to Accumulate at Erste Group; PT 91.21 euros

>>> Down
* Bakkafrost Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT 600 kroner
* Close Brothers Cut to Sell at Investec; PT 1,020 pence
* Danaher Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse; PT $300
* DIC Asset Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 9 euros
* Dustin Cut to Hold at Nordea
* Linea Directa Cut at Berenberg on Motor Pricing, Solvency Risks
* Prudential Cut to Underperform at Exane
* SocGen Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT 30.50 euros
* Zurich Ins. Cut to Neutral at Exane

>>> Initiation
* Iveco Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 5.60 euros

>>> Call
* Euro to Rise to $1.1 by End-2023 as ECB Tightens: Scotiabank
* Jefferies Now Neutral on EU Pharma Sector, Downgrades Roche