FT : World Bank estimates earthquake caused $34bn of damage to Turkey

World Bank estimates earthquake caused $34bn of damage to Turkey
Report highlights massive scale of disaster and rebuilding efforts that must take place

The earthquake that hit Turkey this month caused $34bn of damage, according to an assessment by the World Bank that underscores the extent of the physical devastation wrought by the natural disaster.

Rebuilding in the 11 provinces affected by the February 6 quake and its aftershocks could cost up to $68bn, with residential buildings, schools, hospitals and public infrastructure all requiring repair work, the World Bank said on Monday. More than 105,000 buildings have been heavily damaged or have collapsed, the Bank added.

“This disaster serves as a reminder of Turkey’s high risk to earthquakes and of the need to enhance resilience in public and private infrastructure,” said Humberto Lopez, World Bank country director for Turkey.

The World Bank report, one of the most detailed studies to date on the aftermath of the worst earthquake to hit Turkey in almost a century, highlights the massive scale of the disaster and the rebuilding efforts that must take place. About 50,000 people were killed by the earthquake in Turkey and Syria, while the World Bank estimates that more than 1.25mn people are now homeless.

The earthquake has become a major political issue in Turkey, with the government of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan facing severe criticism for its initial response to the catastrophe as well as its 2018 amnesty programme that forgave millions of building faults.

Turkish media aligned with the government, meanwhile, has hit out at leaders of municipalities where opposition parties are in power, accusing them of failing to take adequate measures to protect buildings from ground shaking in an area known to be vulnerable to earthquakes.

The World Bank said the severity of the damage was down to the unusual strength of the earthquake, how shallow it was and also a “potential lack of code compliance” with Turkey’s rules for building construction and maintenance.


Residential properties have sustained the most damage in dollar terms at $18bn, with non-residential buildings and infrastructure taking $9.7bn and $6.4bn hits respectively. At least 15 hospitals have endured partial or severe damage according to provisional estimates, the World Bank said. Almost 190 historic buildings, which require extensive and specialised renovation work, were either severely or moderately damaged.

Overall, the damage amounts to about 4 per cent of Turkey’s 2021 economic output, but the World Bank expects that when secondary factors such as higher material and labour costs are taken into account, the overall cost to gross domestic product could be higher.

Turkey’s southern Hatay province was especially badly hit. The damage to residential structures in the region equated to almost 42 per cent of their overall value, with the so-called “damage ratio” registering 40 per cent for non-residential buildings and 34 per cent for infrastructure, the World Bank said.

Erdoğan has pledged to rebuild the vast area hit by the earthquake within a year, but experts in reconstruction say it could take far longer to complete the process. Officials will first need to get a handle on how many buildings need to be demolished and then devise extensive rebuilding plans and bring in the necessary labour and equipment — with some engineers and local officials estimating the costs to reach $100bn.

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • H&M (HMSB TH) +1.6%
  • Euronav (OCW TH) +1.5%
  • Michelin (MCHA TH) +1.4%
    • Michelin Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 35 euros
  • Nel (D7G TH) +1.3%
  • Shell (R6C0 TH) +1.3%
    • LNG Market Will Be Finely Balanced This Year, Woodside CEO Says
  • Schneider Electric (SND TH) +1%
  • HeidelbergCement (HEI TH) -0.9%
    • HeidelbergCement Cut to Hold at Bankhaus Metzler; PT 70 euros
  • K+S (SDF TH) -0.9%
  • Voestalpine (VAS TH) -0.9%
    • Watch European Miners as Iron Ore Falls on China Production Cuts
  • Aixtron (AIXA TH) -1%
  • Investor AB (IVSD TH) -1%
  • TUI (TUI1 TH) -1.4%
  • Elekta (EJXB TH) -1.5%

>>> What to look at today - 27th of February 2023

Asia equities fell Monday in seesawing trade after heavy selling on Wall Street late last week as investors ratcheted up forecasts for US interest rates following hot inflation data.  Declines for shares in Australia, South Korea and China weighed on a gauge of the region’s stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index approached levels that would wipe out its 2023. Japanese stocks fluctuated. US futures eased from their earlier highs to be up marginally after Friday’s slump of more than 1% for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, which each suffered their worst week since December. European equity futures inched up. Investor jitters over riskier assets follows an unexpected acceleration in January of the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge. The PCE data release Friday prompted a swift repricing of interest rate forecasts, with traders now pricing US rates to peak at 5.4% this year, compared to a expectations held just a month ago of rates to peak at less than 5%. The yen strengthened against the dollar after a sharp fall on Friday. Bank of Japan Governor nominee Kazuo Ueda spoke again in the Japanese parliament without any large reverberation in markets. Inflation data released last week showed prices in the nation were rising at the fastest pace in four decades, placing pressure on the central bank to reassess its loose policy settings. Data due later in the day will provided extra context for the global economic outlook. Eurozone economic and consumer confidence is due, along with durable goods data from the the US.  Oil steadied as concerns that the Fed will keep on raising interest rates to combat inflation balanced out a supply disruption in Europe and optimism over a demand recovery in China. Gold was also steady. Iron ore sank following an order by Chinese authorities to cut production in its major steelmaking hub in a bid to curb pollution.

Nikkei -0,11% Hang Seng -0,56% CSI -0,42% Shanghai -0,28% Shenzen -0,73%

Eur$ 1,0542 CNH 6,9824 CNY 6,9643 JPY 136,34 GBP 1,1939 CHF 0,9145 RUB 75,7175 TRY 18,8686 WTI$ 75,93 -0,55% Gold 1,808,55 BTC 23,393 -0,70% ETH 1,634

S&P +0,04% Nasdaq +0,16% EuroStoxx +0,02% FTSE +0,30% Dax -0,10% SMI

Macro :
- Europe Banks on Its €72 Billion to Counter Biden’s Green Payouts
- Debt Restructuring Talks at G-20 Meeting Make Little Headway
- Caisse CEO Says He’s Looking to Hire as Credit Bargains Abound
- Ukraine Latest: Putin Says Weapons Aid Makes NATO ‘Participant’
- France to Enforce Water ‘Sobriety Plan’ Amid Severe Drought Risk
- Argentina to Change IMF Net Reserve Target for Third Time
- Watch Lithium Stocks in US as China Probe Shuts Down Some Supply

Keep an eye on :
- AIR FP : Airbus Sees Australia, Pacific Buying 920 Jets in Next 20 Years
- AKTIA FH : Aktia Bank CEO Ayub to Leave Firm With Immediate Effect
- ASML NA : Ex-ASML Worker Accused of Theft Being Probed for China Ties
- BRK/A US : Berkshire Posts Record Operating Earnings Amid Economic Turmoil
- BX US : Blackstone Is Said to Plan European Infrastructure Fund
- BX US : Blackstone’s Schwarzman receives over $1bn for second straight year
- CVNA US : Carvana’s Tale of Debt and Losses Looks a Lot Like Old Hertz
- CAV1V FH : Caverion Board in Talks With Both Triton, Bain Consortium
- CTXS US : Banks to Sell $3.95b of Citrix Junior Debt in Coming Weeks: FT
- CPA1 NA : Michael Tobin’s Crystal Peak and IMC Terminate Merger Agreement
- DANSKE DC : Danske Bank Sells Job Platform TheHub to Mesh Community
- GLW US : The company is among five companies identified by Barron’s as benefiting from a clean-energy manufacturing boom.
- CVT US : Cvent Rejects $8/Share Offer From Blackstone: Reuters
- DEME BB : DEME Group FY Ebitda Beats Estimates
- EDF FP : French Power Shortage Risks are Reduced for Rest of Winter: Grid
- ELE SM : Endesa Would Accept Tax on Extra Gas Profit, Not on All Revenue
- FDR SM : Fluidra FY Net Income Misses Estimates, Sees 2023 Sales EU2.00B to EU2.20B, Est. EU2.2B
- GS US : Goldman Turns to ‘Make-or-Break’ Unit as CEO Solomon Put to Test (Investor Day 28/02)
- HLN LN : GSK Spinoff Haleon Is Said to Explore Sale of ChapStick Brand
- HBH GY : Hornbach Boards Extend CFO Karin Dohm’s Contract for Five Years
- LAC US : company can move ahead with building a mine in Nevada, after a judge denied a request by opponents of the project to halt construction.
- LIN GY : Linde Shares Rise in US at Europe Close Amid DAX Index Exit
- PFE US : Pfizer Treatment Granted Orphan Drug Status by FDA
- MC FP : Billionaires Spy Opportunity to Take Luxury Hotels Into Cruises
- MAN US : Manchester United Bidders Urged to Increase Offers: FT
- META US : Meta Introducing AI Large Language Model Called ‘Llama’
- MS US : Morgan Stanley Says Trading Probes Focus on Information Sharing
- NE US : Noble Corp. 2023 Adjusted Ebitda Forecast Misses Estimates
- NOKIA FH : Nokia Switches Logo Because People Think it Still Makes Mobiles
- NOKIA FH : Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Nokia Sign MOU to Expand Partnership
- PFE US : Pfizer in Early Stage Talks to Buy Seagen: WSJ (1)
- PXD US : Pioneer Natural Resources Says It’s Not Contemplating a Deal
- PNL NA : PostNL 4Q Revenue Misses Estimates
- SAN FP : Sanofi Says Altuviiio Approval Triggers Impairment ReversalSanofi Says Altuviiio Approval Triggers Impairment Reversal
- SGEN US : Pfizer in Early Stage Talks to Buy Seagen at more than $30b valuation, closed at $28,5b EV Friday.
- SESG FP : SES 4Q Adjusted Ebitda Misses Estimates
- SHA GY : Schaeffler Divesting Russian Business, CEO Tells Welt am Sonntag
- SHEL LN : Shell Considers Extending Outage at QCLNG Plant Due to Gas Leak
- STAN LN : Standard Chartered in Talks to Lend on Behalf of First Boston
- STLA IM : Stellantis CEO Pay Fell 14% to 14.9 Million Euros in 2022
- SREN SW : Fortune Favors the Brave as Swiss Re Capitalizes on Price Hikes
- TGNA US : Tegna Buyout Shelved by FCC Order Sending Deal to Hearing (-20% post Market)
- HO FP : France’s Thales Plans to Hire 12,000 As Defense Orders Surge
- TSLA US : Tesla Investor Gerber to Drop Bid for Board Seat at EV Maker (1)
- UCG IM : UniCredit Could Raise CEO Orcel’s Pay by as Much as 40%: Sole
- UNP US : Soroban Capital Partners Pushes to Oust Union Pacific CEO: DJ

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 27th of February 2023

>>> Up
* Michelin Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 35 euros
* REC Silicon Raised to Neutral at SpareBank; PT 16 kroner
* Rightmove Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT 530 pence
* Shell Raised to Buy at Goldman
* Shell ADRs Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $85
* Trainline Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 287 pence

>>> Down
* AstraZeneca Cut to Hold at Intron Health
* BASF Cut to Sell at Bankhaus Metzler; PT 41 euros
* Cellnex Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 39 euros
* Deutsche Post Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 43 euros
* DSV Cut to Reduce at HSBC; PT 1,100 kroner
* Femsa ADRs Cut to Neutral at Bradesco BBI; PT $100
* Galapagos ADRs PT Cut to $43 from $53 at RBC
* Galapagos ADRs PT Cut to $44 from $57 at Morgan Stanley
* Hargreaves Lansdown Cut TO SELL at CIiti, PT 730P
* HeidelbergCement Cut to Hold at Bankhaus Metzler; PT 70 euros
* Howden Joinery Cut to Add at Peel Hunt; PT 770 pence
* Kuehne + Nagel Cut to Reduce at HSBC; PT 210 Swiss francs
* Mediaset Espana Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 4.20 euros
* NKT Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse; PT 370 kroner
* Quilter Cut to Sell at Citi; PT 75 pence

>>> Initiation
* AJ Bell Rated New Buy at Citi; PT 400 pence
* Coca-Cola Rated New Outperform at Baptista Research; PT $70.30
* Dufry AG Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT 50 Swiss francs
* flatexDEGIRO Rated New Neutral at Citi
* Hafnia Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT 80 kroner
* Netcompany Rated New Underweight at Barclays; PT 205 kroner

>>> Call
* AJ Bell a Buy, Hargreaves, Quilter and Nordnet Cut at Citi
* AstraZeneca Cut at Intron on Competitive Risks to Key Franchises
* Cellnex Downgraded to Hold at Berenberg on Cost of Capital

WSJ : Pfizer in Talks to Acquire Seagen

Pfizer in Talks to Acquire Seagen in Deal Likely Valued at More Than $30 Billion
Potential deal would help the drug company add to its lineup of cancer treatments

Pfizer Inc. PFE -1.30% is in talks to acquire biotech Seagen SGEN -0.51% Inc, according to people familiar with the matter, the latest potential deal for a big drug company aimed at adding a promising class of targeted cancer therapies.

The talks are at an early stage and there is no guarantee there will be a deal, the people said. A number of hurdles would need to be overcome, including the potential for a stringent antitrust review of any proposal. If there is a deal, it would be big: Seagen has a market value of some $30 billion and would be expected to command a premium over that.

Seagen was in advanced talks last year to be acquired by Merck MRK -0.63% & Co., in a deal that would have been worth $40 billion or more, The Wall Street Journal reported at the time, but the two sides failed to reach agreement. Pfizer at the time was also looking at Seagen, people familiar with the matter have said.


After talks with Merck fell apart last year, Seagen named David Epstein, a former Novartis AG NVS -1.06% executive who more recently was a partner at venture firm Flagship Pioneering, as chief executive.

A deal would help Pfizer, one of the world’s biggest pharmaceutical companies with $100 billion in sales last year, add to its lineup of cancer treatments a class of agents that have shown promise working with so-called immunotherapies against some of the most prevalent tumors.

It could also help Pfizer offset $17 billion in sales that the company projects it could lose due to patent expirations by 2030. Pfizer has set a goal of adding $25 billion in revenue by the end of the decade from business-development moves including acquisitions. Seagen had nearly $2 billion in sales last year.

New York-based Pfizer is flush with cash. The drugmaker has some $22.7 billion from sales of its Covid-19 vaccines, drugs and other products.

Last year, Pfizer acquired sickle-cell-drug maker Global Blood Therapeutics Inc. for more than $5 billion and the rest of Biohaven Pharmaceutical Holdings Co. for more than $10 billion.

Seagen, of Bothell, Wash., helped pioneer a class of cancer therapy known as antibody drug conjugates that works like a guided missile attacking tumors with toxic agents.

The therapies had been approved for cancers like Hodgkin’s and other lymphomas, and more recently have shown promise in combination with an immunotherapy against other kinds of tumors including a form of breast cancer.


The potential in breast cancer could be particularly appealing to Pfizer, which has a top-selling drug, named Ibrance, treating the condition.

The Food and Drug Administration is reviewing whether to approve a combination of the Padcev antibody drug conjugate, from Seagen and Astellas Pharma Inc., and Merck’s Keytruda immunotherapy for treatment of advanced bladder cancer.

WSJ : SpaceX Prepares to Launch Crew to International Space Station

SpaceX Prepares to Launch Crew to International Space Station
Elon Musk’s space company set to transport astronauts for six-month research mission, according to NASA

SpaceX is set to launch another crew to the International Space Station, the latest human flight the company has handled for NASA since bringing such missions back to the U.S. about three years ago.

The Elon Musk-led company is scheduled to blast four people to the research laboratory at 1:45 a.m. ET on Monday from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration said.

The crew will fly to the station on one of SpaceX’s Crew Dragon vehicles, which the company will launch on a Falcon 9 rocket.

The space station has a busy couple of months ahead of it. On Saturday, a spacecraft operated by Roscosmos, the Russian space agency, docked at the facility. The vehicle will replace a ship that suffered a leak after a micrometeorite hit a component on it, according to Roscosmos, and will later carry three people back to Earth.

SpaceX and Northrop Grumman Corp. have coming cargo flights to the station, officials have said.

Boeing Co. plans to transport in April two astronauts to the facility for the first time using its Starliner spacecraft, executives said during a recent NASA briefing. The aerospace giant has faced technical hurdles with Starliner, including problems related to software and valves, that delayed the first crewed flight.

The crew on SpaceX’s mission Monday are NASA astronauts Stephen Bowen and Warren Hoburg ; Sultan Alneyadi, an astronaut from the United Arab Emirates; and Roscosmos cosmonaut Andrey Fedyaev. They plan to conduct research and scientific experiments during a six-month stretch on orbit. NASA plans to stream the launch from its website.

Benji Reed, senior director for SpaceX’s human spaceflight program, said during a briefing late Saturday that final preflight tests were successful.

“Crew safety and health is our top priority,” he said. “We’re seeing overall clean vehicles and good ground systems ready to go.”

The flight would mark the seventh time that Space Exploration Technologies Corp., the formal name for Hawthorne, Calif.-based SpaceX, has transported people to the station for NASA. The company is under contract to handle similar flights through 2030. NASA valued the latest batch of the missions it purchased from SpaceX at roughly $287 million per flight, according to a statement from the agency in August.

In 2020, SpaceX blasted two astronauts to the space station for NASA. That represented the first rocket launch of humans from the U.S. since the agency’s last space shuttle mission nine years earlier.

SpaceX also has been preparing to try to launch its Starship spacecraft to orbit for the first time. The company has sold flights on those large vehicles, designed for deeper space missions, to private space travelers, including Japanese billionaire Yusaku Maezawa.

NASA has hired SpaceX to transport two agency astronauts to the surface of the moon on a version of Starship as soon as 2025, as part of the agency’s Artemis exploration program.

SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell said earlier this month at an industry event that the company initially plans to use Starship to deploy its own Starlink internet satellites while it learns to operate the new rocket.

WSJ : Hedge Fund Seeks Ouster of Union Pacific CEO

Hedge Fund Seeks Ouster of Union Pacific CEO
Soroban says Lance Fritz should be replaced by the railroad’s former chief operating officer

Hedge fund Soroban Capital Partners is pushing Union Pacific Corp. UNP 0.36% to replace Chief Executive Lance Fritz, arguing the railroad has underperformed on his watch, according to people familiar with the matter.

Soroban is a longtime Union Pacific investor, one of the company’s biggest shareholders with a 1%-plus stake valued at about $1.6 billion, the people said.

Soroban argues that Union Pacific, the largest freight railroad operator in the U.S. with a market capitalization of nearly $120 billion, has ranked worst in key operating metrics including safety, volume growth and total shareholder return during Mr. Fritz’s eight-year tenure despite the strength of its railroad network. The Omaha, Neb., railroad’s returns to shareholders, including dividends, are the worst on a percentage basis among so-called Class 1 freight railroad operators in that period, according to FactSet.

The $10 billion hedge fund is pushing for railroad veteran Jim Vena, Union Pacific’s chief operating officer from 2019 to 2020, to take the top post instead. Soroban believes the company’s stock price could double in two years under Mr. Vena, who was in the running in 2021 to be CEO of Canadian National Railway Co. , given his operational experience in the industry, according to the people.

“We want UNP to prosper,” Soroban founder Eric Mandelblatt wrote in a letter to Union Pacific’s board earlier Sunday, a copy of which was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. “Unlike typical shareholder engagements which come with numerous demands, Soroban has only one ask: install new leadership who can get the trains to operate safely and on time.”

“Union Pacific is in regular discussions with our shareholders, including Soroban,” a spokeswoman for the railroad said. “Leadership succession planning is a top priority for the board and there is an active process underway,” she added, echoing prior statements the company has made.

Contacted by The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Vena said he would be open to a conversation with Union Pacific about taking the CEO role and expressed admiration for the company. “Union Pacific has a chance to be the best in the industry,” he said.

Soroban’s letter said the fund for years, including most recently in August, had privately expressed its unhappiness with the company’s performance. Soroban has told the board that quick action must be taken so that Union Pacific can take advantage of trends the investor believes are converging to benefit railroads, including renewed investment in domestic manufacturing and efforts to reduce carbon emissions.

Soroban is “completely committed to seeing that these changes be expeditiously implemented,” the letter says. The fund has no current plans for a proxy fight, according to people familiar with the matter.

In January, Union Pacific reported fourth-quarter profit and revenue that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations, with labor shortages, inflation and extreme winter weather weighing on growth. Union Pacific and other U.S. railroad operators have issued tepid outlooks for 2023 in the face of more muted demand for manufactured goods among other products, as well as higher costs.

Union Pacific also has drawn scrutiny from the Surface Transportation Board, the regulator overseeing U.S. freight railroads. The STB in December held a hearing singling out Union Pacific’s soaring use of embargoes—restrictions that rail operators place on the amount of cargo that can be transported—that the regulator said had sparked complaints from shippers and worsened supply-chain issues.

Soroban’s public push for change is unusual. The hedge fund takes concentrated stakes and in recent years has focused on big technology companies and, more recently, commodities investments. But it has rarely held an activist position since its 2010 founding.

Mr. Mandelblatt, 47 years old, got his start on Wall Street as an energy analyst for Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in the 1990s and has invested in railroads since 2005. Soroban has been invested in Union Pacific since 2016 and is a major shareholder at CSX Corp. It has also invested in Norfolk Southern Corp.

Soroban’s push comes at a time of increased activism as beaten-down share prices embolden the investors. Salesforce Inc. and Walt Disney Co. have both attracted multiple activists, although earlier this month Nelson Peltz’s Trian Fund Management LP called off its proxy contest at the entertainment company after Disney unveiled a reorganization and cost-cutting plan. Dan Loeb’s Third Point LLC also plans to launch a proxy fight against Bath & Body Works Inc.