>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • MTU Aero (MTX TH) +1.2%
    • MTU Aero 1Q ‘Very Strong,’ Better Than Expected: Street Wrap
  • Commerzbank (CBK TH) +1.1%
  • Deutsche Bank (DBK TH) +1%
  • Rheinmetall (RHM TH) +0.9%
  • Brenntag (BNR TH) +0.7%
MDAX:
  • Hensoldt (HAG TH) +1%
  • Evonik (EVK TH) +0.8%
  • Evotec SE (EVT TH) +0.8%
  • TeamViewer SE (TMV TH) +0.7%
SDAX:
  • PNE AG (PNE3 TH) +2%
  • SFC Energy (F3C TH) +1.2%
  • flatexDEGIRO (FTK TH) +1%
  • Suedzucker (SZU TH) -1.2%
    • CropEnergies Sees Significant Reduction in 1Q Results

WSJ : Elon Musk Says His AI Project Will Seek to Understand the Nature of the Un

Elon Musk Says His AI Project Will Seek to Understand the Nature of the Universe
Musk speaks about his AI ambitions in an interview with Fox News Channel’s ‘Tucker Carlson Tonight’

Elon Musk, who co-founded OpenAI but left the company in 2018 after losing a power struggle to its current chief executive, elaborated on his current ambitions for artificial intelligence in a television interview.

“I’m going to start something which I call ‘Truth GPT’ or a maximum truth-seeking AI that tries to understand the nature of the universe,” Mr. Musk said in an interview on Fox News Channel’s “Tucker Carlson Tonight.” The first part of the interview aired Monday, with a second part scheduled to air Tuesday night.

Mr. Musk recently created a new artificial intelligence company called X.AI Corp., according to a Nevada state filing. In the past few months, Mr. Musk has been recruiting researchers with the goal of creating a rival effort to OpenAI, the artificial intelligence company that launched the viral chatbot ChatGPT, The Wall Street Journal has reported.

Mr. Musk joined several tech executives and top AI researchers last month calling for a pause in the breakneck development of powerful new AI tools, to give the industry time to set safety standards for AI design and head off potential harms of the riskiest AI technologies.

Understanding the nature of the universe “might be the best path to safety, in the sense that an AI that cares about understanding the universe, it is unlikely to annihilate humans because we are an interesting part of the universe,” Mr. Musk said in the interview.

Fox News parent Fox Corp. and Journal parent News Corp share common ownership.

Mr. Musk has expressed concerns about ChatGPT offering what critics have called politically biased answers. He tweeted in February: “What we need is TruthGPT.”

During the interview, Mr. Musk reiterated his support for government regulation of AI, citing safety concerns. He said he thinks a regulatory body should solicit opinions from people in the industry and propose rules.

AI could be more dangerous than mismanaged aircraft or automobile design, Mr. Musk said. He added, “It has the potential—however small one may regard that probability, but it is non-trivial—it has the potential of civilizational destruction.”

Mr. Musk also spoke about his tenure so far at Twitter, the social-media platform that he acquired last year in a deal valued at $44 billion. He said it remains to be seen whether his acquisition was a financially smart move.

“Currently it is not,” he said, adding, “We just revalued the company at less than half the acquisition price.”

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 18th of April 2023

>>> Up
* Emerson Electric Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $103
* Esker Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT 175 euros
* Nokian Renkaat Raised to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 9.50 euros
* Nvidia Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $355
* Orange Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 13.50 euros
* Remy Cointreau Raised to Outperform at Bernstein
* Telenor Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 135 kroner

>>> Down
* ALK-Abello Cut to Hold at DNB Markets; PT 110 kroner
* Carlsberg Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein
* Cellavision Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 160 kronor
* Global Payments Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $124
* Holcim Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 57 Swiss francs
* Intervest Offices & Warehouses Cut to Underperform at Oddo BHF
* INVISIO AB Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 242 kronor
* Liberty Energy Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* Mapfre Cut to Sell at Berenberg; PT 1.62 euros
* Marathon Petroleum Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $135
* OMV Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 42.30 euros
* Prometheus Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $200
* Prometheus Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $200
* Prometheus Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $200
* Prometheus Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse; PT $200
* Rovio Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 9.25 euros
* Rovio Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 9.25 euros
* Vale ADRs Cut at Citi on Iron Ore Weakness, China Steel Demand
* Valero Energy Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $135

>>> Initiation
* Carnival Rated New Hold at Baptista Research; PT $11
* CentralNic Rated New Buy at Numis; PT 180 pence
* EuroAPI Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 16.90 euros
* Hydrogen Refueling Solutions Rated New Outperform at Oddo BHF
* Maire Tecnimont Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT 5.22 euros
* NCAB Group Rated New Buy at DNB Markets; PT 75 kronor
* Nike Rated New Hold at Baptista Research; PT $138
* Nolato Rated New Buy at SEB Equities; PT 60 kronor
* Prysmian Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 43 euros
* Richter Rated New Buy at Berenberg

>>> Call
* BofA Says Earnings Defy Tough Forecasts With Big Upside Surprise
* Carlsberg Cut at Bernstein After Outperformance, Remy Upgraded
* Holcim Cut at Stifel on Valuation, Sees Better Value in Sector
* HSBC Cut at JPMorgan on Valuation, Impairment Charges
* JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Says Recent Tech Rally Looks Set to Fade
* Mapfre Cut to Sell at Berenberg With Little Room to Disappoint
* OMV, Repsol Cut at Morgan Stanley on Refining Margin Pressures
* Prysmian New Overweight at Morgan Stanley on Grid Exposure

>>> What to look at today - 18th of April 2023

Most Asian stocks dropped as investors focused on patches of weakness in China’s economic data even as the overall picture was solid.  Shares in mainland China eked out tiny gains, while benchmarks in Hong Kong, South Korea and Australia all declined. China’s economy grew at a faster pace last quarter than economists forecast as consumers ramped up spending, but the recovery was uneven with industrial activity relatively subdued. The yuan strengthened following the data before giving back part of its gains as caution resurfaced. The dollar was little changed, snapping a two-day gain. Government bonds fell in Australia and New Zealand after Treasuries declined on Monday. Treasuries were little changed in Asia, with the two-year yield holding just below 4.2%. New York state manufacturing activity unexpectedly expanded in April for the first time in five months as new orders and shipments snapped back. The possibility of further Fed policy tightening had pushed up Treasury yields and constrained US stocks on Monday, with the S&P 500 erasing losses in afternoon trading and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 underperforming major equity benchmarks.  Australia’s dollar rose after minutes of the central bank’s April meeting showed members discussed a quarter-point hike before deciding on a pause. Meanwhile, Indonesian policymakers are expected to keep their benchmark unchanged later Tuesday.  A gauge of cross-asset volatility remained at 14-month low, reflecting a growing assurance that the worst of the banking turmoil and US rate hikes may be over. The VIX Index, another volatility measure, remained below 17, its lowest since the start of last year. Still, US bank earnings on Monday didn’t entirely relieve investor nervousness that the sector can quickly bounce from turmoil that roiled several lenders earlier this year, as a so-called earnings recession in the world’s biggest economy looms.   US After Hours JELD +4.5% up after announcing Australasia business unit sale; PLOW -6.5% down on disappointing Q1 guidance; JBHT -1.8% lower on top and bottom line misses in Q1.

Nikkei +0.41% Hang Seng -0.58% CSI +0.27% Shanghai +0.16% Shenzen -0.02%

EUR$ 1.0939 CNH 6.8765 CNY 6.8713 JPY 134.38 GBP 1.2387 CHF 0.8978 RUB 81.6187 TRY 19.3952 WTI$ 81.01 +0.22% Gold 2000,50 +0.27% BTX 29,588 +0.44% ETH 2,090 +0.63%

S&P -0.02% Nasdaq -0.08% EuroStoxx +0.23% FTSE +0.22% Dax +0.20% SMI +0.32%

Macro :
- JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Says Recent Tech Rally Looks Set to Fade
- BofA Says Earnings Defy Tough Forecasts With Big Upside Surprise
- Italian Foreign Minister Tajani Calls for China to Prod Russia

Keep an eye on :
- ABDN LN : Abrdn Cuts at Least 27 Roles in Its Multi-Asset Team: FT
- ADP FP : ADP March Passenger Traffic +26.2%
- ALKB DC : ALK-Abello Prelim 1Q Revenue Meets Estimates
- BRN GY : Brenntag Activist Demands Board Seats, Escalating Breakup Call
- CARR LN : UK Accounting Watchdog Starts Probe Into KPMG’s Audit of Carr’s
- CTLT US : Danaher Is Said to Shelve Takeover Pursuit of Catalent
- CE2 GY : CropEnergies Sees Significant Reduction in 1Q Results
- DEMANT DC : Demant Boosts FY Ebit Forecast, Beats Estimates
- DRW3 GY : Draegerwerk Prelim 1Q Ebit About EU29M
- ECONB BB : Econocom Sees FY Revenue +5%
- EDPR PL : EDP Renovaveis 1Q Electricity Generation Rises 11%
- ERICB SS : Ericsson 1Q Adjusted Ebit Beats Estimates
- ERICB SS : Ericsson CFO Carl Mellander to Step Down
- GTT FP : GTT Gets Order for Tank Design of Two New LNG Carriers
- HPA1 LN : Hambro Perks Co-Founder Dominic Perks Leaves Company: Times
- HSBA LN : HSBC ADRs Cut at JPMorgan on Valuation, Impairment Charges
- INVA US : Innoviva’s Bacterial Pneumonia Drug Gets FDA Committee Nod
- MTU GY : MTU Aero Prelim 1Q Adjusted Ebit Beats Estimates
- MOWI NO : Mowi Prelim 1Q Ebit About EU322M
- 911 GY : Porsche Unwraps Refreshed Cayenne to Bolster Best-Selling Model
- RNO FP : Renault Sees Final Agreement With Nissan in ‘Matter of Weeks’
- IDS LN : Royal Mail Shares Jump on Union Deal But Analysts See Risks
- SNC PL : Sonae Holds 88.8% of Sonaecom After Bidding for Remaining Stock
- SOP FP : Sopra Steria to File Ordina Bid No Later Than Second Half of May
- UBSG SW : UBS Gets Approval to Use Some Buyback Shares for CS Takeover
- VIRP FP : Virbac 1Q Revenue Misses Estimates
- VOW GY : Volkswagen Has a Shiny Tesla Killer
- FHZN SW : Zurich Airport March Passenger Traffic +57.8%
- WBD IM : Webuild: Total Value of the Project Expected to Reach $1 Bln

FT : EU faces last-ditch challenge from exchanges over trading reforms

EU faces last-ditch challenge from exchanges over trading reforms
Bourses warn consolidated tape plan could harm smaller European markets

European reforms to make the region’s markets more competitive with the US face a last-ditch opposition from stock exchanges reluctant to hand over their data to a planned real-time database of share trading information.

European Union officials on Tuesday will begin negotiations to lay out the framework for live records of stock and bond trading information, a move that supporters say would vastly improve transparency and entice big foreign investors to trade in European stock markets.

The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, hopes the measures will help unify its fragmented market and make it more comparable to the US, whose stock markets are more dynamic and twice as valuable.

European markets also have suffered a dearth of listings, with the value of money raised dropping to its lowest point in a decade last year, according to Dealogic data. Turnover in equities, an indicator of market liquidity, rose 40 per cent in the six years to 2022 in the US but remained flat over the same period in Europe, according to data from New Financial, a think-tank.

But the EU’s plan to create a single database of live stock prices faces a final lobbying pushback from Europe’s stock exchanges, which argue handing over data deprives them of much-needed revenues and threatens the viability of some of the region’s smaller bourses.

“It may mean in smaller countries they would not have a listing venue anymore,” said Rainer Riess, director-general of the Federation of European Securities Exchanges, which represents 35 venues across the region.

The European Commission sees a so-called consolidated tape as a way to overcome the hurdle of fragmented European markets. Trading is scattered between national exchanges, alternative trading venues and private marketplaces. Such tapes have been a feature of US markets for decades.

The negotiations between member states, the European Commission and parliament, will try to clarify what a consolidated tape should look like. Brussels intends that it will be run by a private commercial company and funded by the market.

Many investors argue the structural problems in Europe have been exacerbated by the EU’s 2018 Mifid II markets rules, which have made it more difficult and expensive to track activity.

A tape “should lead Europe into being seen and operate as a truly single market”, said Adam Farkas, chief executive of AFME. “If you are sitting in Singapore or Hong Kong . . . and managing a fund there, you want to look at Europe as one single market.”

The 2018 rules mandated a tape be built but left it to the market to develop a solution. Efforts repeatedly foundered when they came up against national and commercial interests.

Natan Tiefenbrun, president of stock exchange operator CBOE Europe, said clients such as large US quantitative trading firms “want to come to Europe but are put off by the complexity, particularly in market data”.

But the debate has centred on when exactly trading data should be captured. FESE, which initially sought a 15-minute delay to the tape, has lobbied for the tape to largely consist of information after the trade is completed, and opposes constant real-time pre-trade data.

Susan Yavari, senior regulatory policy adviser at the European Fund and Asset Management Association, said opposition to a pre-trade tape was “shortsighted” because “[exchanges] want to protect existing data revenues”.

Exchanges earn lucrative fees from licensing their market data to customers such as high-frequency traders, hedge funds and banks — revenues that would be shared under the EU proposals. FESE estimates European venues earn about only €245mn from their data annually and Riess argues the data fees cover the maintenance of listings and growth markets and other services that rivals and banks do not provide.

“Even for some of the midsize players that would be a significant cut in their revenue where the viability of the exchange business for these players would be in question,” he said.

FESE also argues that the rules should include “systematic internalisers” — more lightly regulated invitation-only markets run largely by banks and high-frequency traders. Stéphane Boujnah, chief executive of Euronext, the region’s largest exchanges operator, has called proposals that exclude them as “diluting transparency, creating opacity”.

Boujnah, like FESE, has also warned that a tape containing pre-trade information will leave smaller investors exposed to predation, undermining Mifid II’s commitment to toughen protection for investors.

Larger traders will see the orders on the tape, then use faster and more sophisticated technology to take advantage of the difference in the price on an exchange hundreds of miles away, a tactic known as latency arbitrage, argues the exchange lobby group.

“If you are sending the data to the tape provider from Oslo, Athens, Cyprus . . . there’s a geographical latency that’s significantly bigger than the US,” Riess said, adding: “Some will know in advance what the tape will say, they will be able to arbitrage that.”

That argument is rejected by many asset managers. Yavari said smaller exchanges would actually benefit, not lose out. “Take Portugal or Croatia, you have to go proactively and see the data from that exchange. If you already have all the data in a consolidated tape then it’s all there, you have the visibility.”

“In the absence of [the data], it’s very difficult for us to showcase the true liquidity pool and that doesn’t help the growth of European capital markets more broadly,” said Jim Goldie, head of ETF capital markets for Europe, Middle East and Africa at Invesco.

FT : Spain and Portugal tackle property crisis by embracing public housing

Spain and Portugal tackle property crisis by embracing public housing
Under-investment means the two countries have the most limited stocks of subsidised homes in western Europe

Spain plans to use a “bad bank” born of its most recent financial crisis to create up to 50,000 units of public housing as the country and neighbouring Portugal seek government-led solutions to the soaring cost of property.

The countries — two of the poorest in western Europe — want to reverse a legacy of under-investment in public housing that means they have the most limited stocks of subsidised homes in the region.

The moves reflect the pain caused across Europe by a housing boom that has far outpaced wage growth in most countries. Rising rental rates, mortgage bills and property prices are for some people eclipsing food and energy prices as the worst part of the cost of living crisis.

Spain’s cabinet is set to approve a plan later on Tuesday that will boost the national stock of 290,000 public homes by 17 per cent using property from its bad bank, established in 2012 to mop up the toxic assets of failing lenders after a real estate bubble burst four years earlier.

Pedro Sánchez, Spain’s prime minister, said the move would tackle a “huge and genuine problem” by making more homes available at fair prices for young people especially. “Housing in Spain is a constitutional right, but not a real right. Young people have to wait an unacceptably long time to access housing and become independent,” he said.


The gravity of the problem was underlined on Monday by new data from property portal Fotocasa that showed rental prices in Spain hit a new record high in March, rising nearly 10 per cent from a year ago to €11.55 a month per square metre.

Sharp interest rate increases by the European Central Bank over the past year mean borrowing costs for mortgage holders are now at their highest level for a decade. Spanish housing is the least affordable since the end of the country’s property boom.

In Portugal, residential properties have never been so expensive relative to earnings and there is huge angst over local residents being priced out of Lisbon and Porto, its biggest cities.

Marina Gonçalves, housing minister, told the Financial Times: “The answers in the private market are not sufficient.”

Portugal’s government approved plans last year to invest €2.4bn in public housing by the end of 2026. On Friday last week it presented a housing bill to parliament that would let the state turn vacant private properties into social housing but with rent payments still going to landlords.

“This is a problem in the whole of Europe, so we need to promote new answers,” Gonçalves said.


While estimates vary, public housing represents roughly 2 per cent of Portugal’s housing stock and between 1 and 3 per cent of all homes in Spain — below the EU average of 7.5 per cent and far off France’s 14 per cent and nearly 17 per cent in the UK.

The figures reflect the fact that public housing has been only a sporadic policy priority on the Iberian peninsula since its dictatorships crumbled in the 1970s. Several democratically elected governments have instead used public subsidies and tax incentives to encourage people to purchase their own properties, giving the countries the highest levels of home ownership in western Europe at more than 75 per cent.

In more recent years the fiscal costs of the financial crisis that began with the 2008 property crash left the region’s governments with limited scope to embark on new spending.

The Socialist-led governments of both countries are pursuing broader reforms to make their private property markets fairer, but they say public housing is crucial.


Spain plans to sell 21,000 empty properties from its bad bank, known as Sareb, to regional and municipal governments so they can turn them into public housing. It will also formalise the status of 14,000 Sareb homes that are occupied but in limbo because, for example, the tenants signed rental contracts with developers that subsequently went bust, according to a government official.

The final part of its plan is to make empty plots of land belonging to the bad bank — which is majority-owned by the central government — available for the construction of 15,000 new units of public housing.

Jesús Leal, a sociologist and professor at Madrid’s Complutense university, said “public housing is the only long-term solution” to an affordability crisis.

But he said he was “a little sceptical” about whether Sánchez’s new plan would be effective because Spain’s housing crisis is most acute in big cities such as Madrid, Barcelona and Valencia, whereas the bad bank’s properties are elsewhere.

Many of its real estate assets are close to Spain’s Mediterranean coast yet became toxic because they were not in prime locations but instead some distance away from the beach as well as centres of employment.

The government official said: “Obviously Sareb doesn’t have buildings in the centre of big cities. But the quantity is important. Fifty thousand homes is a very high number compared with the total amount of public housing available today.”

FT : China’s economy rebounds more than expected after Covid reopening

China’s economy rebounds more than expected after Covid reopening
GDP expands 4.5% in first quarter as Xi Jinping’s government seeks to restore business confidence

China’s gross domestic product expanded 4.5 per cent year on year in the first quarter, as strong growth in exports and infrastructure investment as well as a rebound in retail consumption and property prices drove a recovery in the world’s second-largest economy.

The official figure, which exceeded analyst expectations of a 4 per cent rise, followed efforts by Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s government to restore business confidence damaged by pandemic controls last year and abrupt policy changes.

The January-March growth rate was still short of the government’s full-year target of 5 per cent, held back by a nationwide Covid-19 outbreak at the start of this year, but economists expect it to pick up pace as the year progresses.

Xi, who formally embarked on an unprecedented third term as China’s president last month, is keen to revive economic growth. Gross domestic product expanded just 3 per cent last year, missing the official target of 5.5 per cent which was already the lowest in decades.

“Definitely, the recovery’s on track,” said Tao Wang, UBS chief China economist. “The momentum at the beginning of the year was stronger than expected.”

China’s rebound is crucial to global economic growth this year as developed nations grapple with persistently high inflation, rising interest rates and sluggish expansion in the wake of the pandemic and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

“The national economy showed a steady recovery and made a good start,” China’s National Bureau of Statistics said. But the agency cautioned the situation was “complex and volatile, inadequate domestic demand remains prominent and the foundation for economic recovery is not solid yet”.


Chinese commodities markets rallied following Tuesday’s data release, but equities failed to hold on to early gains.

China abandoned zero-Covid restrictions in December amid popular opposition to the rolling lockdowns that paralysed cities across the country for most of the year. The easing unleashed pent-up demand in the retail sector, where sales rose 5.8 per cent year on year in the first quarter and 10.6 per cent in March. But the base of comparison with last year was low, given that Shanghai started a months-long lockdown in March 2022.

Premier Li Qiang, Xi’s new number two, signalled at China’s rubber-stamp parliament last month that the government would relax a crackdown on business that has wiped billions of dollars from property developers and internet platforms.

Manufacturing investment rose 7 per cent year on year in the first quarter and industrial output gained 3 per cent. Exports showed strong growth, up 8.4 per cent in the first quarter, and state-led infrastructure investment climbed 8.8 per cent, while overall fixed asset investment rose 5.1 per cent. Private investment was weak, up just 0.6 per cent, suggesting a decline in March.

The property sector’s woes continued, with new housing starts tumbling 19.2 per cent year on year in the first quarter. Home sales by area declined 1.8 per cent but sales by value rose 4.1 per cent, pointing to a nascent recovery in prices. In March, new home prices rose at their fastest pace in 21 months.

The jobless rate fell to 5.3 per cent in March from 5.6 per cent in February, but youth unemployment hit the second-highest mark on record, at 19.6 per cent.

Economists said momentum would pick up in the second quarter, helped by the low base effect, but warned that consumption and property might struggle to maintain strong growth, while exports could be threatened by weaker developed markets.

Xi’s administration also remained hamstrung by a lack of credibility after hobbling the private sector, experts said.

Keyu Jin, a professor at the London School of Economics and author of The New China Playbook, said the biggest obstacle was the gap in private sector demand, both in consumption and investment.

“It will take time for confidence to come back to the Chinese economy,” she said.

>>> US After Hours Summary: JELD +4.5% up after announcing Austral

After Hours Summary: JELD +4.5% up after announcing Australasia business unit sale; PLOW -6.5% down on disappointing Q1 guidance; JBHT -1.8% lower on top and bottom line misses in Q1

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: FBK +2.2%, SFBS +2%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: JELD +4.5% (selling Australasia business for $461 mln), ORGN +3.7% (strategic partnership with SCG Packaging), AQN +1.2% (shareholder urges Board to accelerate asset sales), AGR +1% (signs MOU to explore green projects within NM and AZ) BWXT +0.7% (awarded $45 bln DOE contract), CMCSA +0.4% (possibly moving on Writers Guild vote to authorize strike, according to Deadline and others), NFLX +0.1% (possibly moving on Writers Guild vote to authorize strike, according to Deadline and others),

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: PLOW -6.5% (guidance), JBHT -1.8%, PNFP -1.3%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: PCVX -5.3% (public offering), ENVX -4.3% (proposes $150 mln convertible senior notes), CARM -3.5% (files $300 mln mixed shelf; also files stock offering), HOPE -2% (appoints new CFO), DCFC -0.7% (strategic partnership with Jump Charging)