FT : Liontrust in talks to buy Swiss rival GAM

Liontrust in talks to buy Swiss rival GAM

UK asset manager makes approach as industry pressure to consolidate intensifies

UK boutique fund manager Liontrust is holding takeover talks with troubled Swiss rival GAM, highlighting the pressure facing smaller asset managers to bulk up.

Liontrust, which has £33.8bn in assets under management, said on Tuesday it was negotiating with GAM after making an approach to the board. Terms of a potential deal were not disclosed.

GAM has been racing to find a buyer after twice delaying its results, the Financial Times reported last month. It has failed to recover from a 2018 scandal over its holdings of private debt, which led to fines, the exit of its chief executive and a collapse in its market value.

Its share price has plunged 96 per cent since the start of 2018. Last year the group hired UBS to help sell the business.

The travails of GAM have come during a period of intense pressure on smaller asset managers, as the expansion of passive investment hits fees and costs rise. Several have turned to consolidation to increase scale, secure growth and tap into new markets and distribution channels.

But sceptics highlight that asset management deals are often tricky to pull off because of the challenge of integrating different cultures, structures and back office systems.

Historically, Liontrust has been aimed at retail investors. Under chief executive John Ions, the group has already done several deals, including the acquisition of Majedie Asset Management in 2021, the purchase of the UK investment business of Architas in 2020, Neptune Investment Management in 2019, and Alliance Trust Investments in 2017.

David McCann, analyst at Numis Securities, cautioned that shareholders should treat any tie-up between Liontrust and GAM with “scepticism”. “We would assume that cost-cutting/synergies would be a major part of the rationale, given that GAM remains meaningfully lossmaking with its current cost base,” he said. 

McCann added that recent Liontrust acquisitions — notably Majedie and Architas — “have not been great from a shareholder value perspective”. 

Liontrust’s approach for GAM follows a striking fall from grace for the Swiss group. Once one of Europe’s biggest asset managers, GAM’s troubles began in July 2018 when it suspended former star fund manager Tim Haywood with little explanation, prompting investors in its Absolute Return Bond funds, which Haywood managed, to rush for the exit.

It later transpired that Haywood had bought bonds relating to Lex Greensill’s now collapsed supply chain finance business Greensill Capital, which counted former UK prime minister David Cameron as an adviser.

Insiders at Zurich-based GAM had voiced concerns about Haywood’s relationship with Australian financier Greensill, which ultimately led to the liquidation of the funds. Chief executive Alexander Friedman stepped down while Haywood was subsequently fired. In 2021 GAM was fined £9.1mn by the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority for conflicts of interest.

The current chief executive, Peter Sanderson, joined at the end of 2019 and has tried to cut costs. GAM said in January that the board was “constantly reviewing the progress of the firm to ensure that our strategy is appropriate” and that results would be delayed to allow time to provide shareholders with an update on its strategy.

Talks between Liontrust and GAM were first reported by Sky News.

FT : Shipping group CMA CGM in talks to buy Bolloré Logistics

Shipping group CMA CGM in talks to buy Bolloré Logistics

French group extends acquisition spree using its pandemic profits to boost its business

French shipping group CMA CGM has offered to buy the logistics business of billionaire Vincent Bolloré in a deal that would value it at €5bn, as it extends an acquisition spree after making outsized profits during the height of the pandemic.

The two groups said on Tuesday that they would now hold exclusive negotiations, while Bolloré Group added that it had given CMA CGM a deadline of May 8 to finalise its offer.

A deal would further slim down the Bolloré Group, which also holds the family’s stake in Vivendi and its holdings in Universal Music Group. It sold its African ports and logistics operation to MSC Group for €5.1bn in December.

It would also be a sign that billionaire industrialist and corporate raider Bolloré is reshaping his family’s holdings again via acquisitions and divestments — this time leaving them more focused on media and shorn of the ports, transportation and logistics business that he spent decades developing in Africa and elsewhere.

For CMA CGM, which is owned by the billionaire Saadé family, the deal would further its aim of growing its logistics arm to eventually reduce its reliance on the boom-and-bust-prone maritime shipping business that is still its biggest. During the height of the pandemic the Marseille-based group benefited from sky-high shipping rates that drove record sales of $74.50bn and profits of $24.9bn last year.

Chief executive Rodolphe Saadé has said he wants to use the cash to build up the logistics business so that it can offer services to multinational customers such as Walmart and Amazon from the factory to last-mile delivery. CMA CGM has already done four acquisitions of logistics companies since 2018, and also bought a minority stake in Air France in 2022 to move into air freight.

Bolloré said on Tuesday that it “will communicate in due course on the outcome of their discussions”. CMA CGM said: “The negotiations in no way guarantee an acquisition in the end.”

Bolloré Group’s shares rose more than 5 per cent in afternoon trading on Tuesday in Paris.

The transportation and logistics unit, which once included Bolloré Africa Logistics, was once the group’s biggest business operation, generating €7.1bn, or roughly a third, of group revenues in 2022.

A person familiar with the matter said the Bolloré Group was considering the sale because the logistics business required deep pockets and investments and it was not sure it could keep up with rapidly expanding leaders in the sector.

Flush with its pandemic billions, CMA CGM has the means to invest heavily and a deal would vault itself into the top five logistics groups globally, said another person familiar with the matter.

Bolloré Group holds a 29 per cent stake in French media group Vivendi, as well as 18 per cent in Universal Music Group, which was spun out in 2021. Vivendi is in the process of acquiring Lagardère group, which will bolster its holdings in book publishing and travel retail. However, European competition regulators are still examining the acquisition.

Bolloré Group’s board will meet on Tuesday to vote on a proposal to add €0.25 to its share buyback programme priced at €5.75 per share should the deal go through.

(Makor) BOL and VIV update post Bollore Logistics transaction annoncement

BOL announced that it has entered into exclusive negotiations to sell its Transport and logistics business to CMA-CGM for €5bn (on a cash free/ debt free basis).

 

In addition, BOL announced that it would increase the consideration of its partial tender by €0.25 conditional on closing of this transaction on the announced terms.

“a contingent €0.25 earn-out per Bolloré SE share if the CMA CGM offer for the acquisition of Bolloré Logistics leads to the sale of the latter in accordance with the transaction terms to be agreed”.

 

 

1/ Consequences for Bollore partial tender

 

If post transactions, BOL goes back to trading at a 37% discount to its NAV, it would imply a price of €5.7 according to our NAV (section 4 below).

The discount might actually tighten as 16% of BOL’s NAV will be cash that will be used to enhance value without any doubt.

BOL at a 32% discount instead of 37% would imply a BOL price of €6.15.

 

This transaction clearly creates much more value than the €0.25 additional conditional consideration which barely accounts for the market performance since announcement.

Indeed, since the announcement of the partial tender, the SXXP is up 4.4% and when applied to the undisturbed €5.13 BOL price represents €0.22 of value creation.

 

Now the additional consideration is conditional on the deal closing with a final decision relatively soon on May 08th.

It is very likely the transaction and due diligence are well advanced for them to mention a date so close and having already considered the consequences for the partial tender offer.

 

The take-up of the partial tender offer might not be as good as initially expected as there does not seem to be much upside for shareholders to tender.

 

2/ Consequences for Vivendi

 

  • BOL would end up with  €4.2bn cash in hands post Logistics transaction
  • A mandatory offer post OPRA at E11.8 would cost him 2.6bn
  • The key question is whether Bollore is going to play games and delay. From September (cancellation of VIV treasury shares), he will have 6 months to decide whether to:
    1. Make a mandatory bid at the same price as the OPRA post OPRA (which should be at a significant premium otherwise it is useless)
    2. Make a low-ball mandatory offer before an OPRA and creep up its stake up to 50%
    3. Sell below 30%...

 

If anything, this morning’s announcement increases the likelihood of scenario 1.

Increasing its stake and launching a mandatory at such discount to Vivendi makes sense from a financial standpoint but with Bollore you never know what the path to completion might be.

 

 

3/ Bollore Cash position

 

We assume 20% capital gain taxes on the sale of Bollore logistics (which might be very conservative knowing how Bollore usually optimise fiscality)

Bollore would be long €4.2bn of cash post transactions and have significant further cash capacity when including the value of its UMG stake.

The consideration for a Vivendi mandatory offer at €11.8 / share (post OPRA) would represent 63% of its cash position.

 

 

 

4/ Bollore discount to NAV post transactions

 

Post the partial offer at €6.0 (assuming 100% take-up) and the sale of the logistics business for €5bn less 20% capital gain taxes, BOL would be trading at a 33% to its NAV.

 

Laurent Chekroun
Equity Sales
Makor Securities London Ltd. | Makor Group
E: LCHEKROUN@makor-cm.com
M: +41 79 350 71 09
O: +33 1 42 33 02 05
W: www.makor-group.com
6th Floor, 30 Panton Street, London, SW1Y 4AJ
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>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:

  • ERIC -5.4%, FBK -4.8%, GS -3.5%, PLOW -2.4% (guidance), JBHT -2.1%, PAC -2%, PNFP -1.5%, SFBS -0.8%

Other news:

  • PCVX -3.5% (public offering)
  • WD -1.1% (reducing workforce by 10%)
  • HOPE -1% (appoints new CFO)
  • GSK -0.6% (acquiring BLU for $2 bln)

Analyst comments:

  • HP -1.5% (downgraded to Underweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley)
  • FSLR -0.9% (downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc Capital Markets)
  • LBRT -0.8% (downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:

  • LMT +1.5%, BAC +1.2%, JNJ +0.6%

Other news:

  • BLU +98.2% (to be acquired by GSK for $14.75 per share)
  • ALVO +5.8% (has been informed by the FDA that the responses provided to the FDA Form 483 on April 3 2023 following the conclusion of the reinspection of the company's Reykjavik facility on March 17 2023 are currently under review)
  • NKTX +3.9% (presents preclinincal data)
  • ORGN +3% (strategic partnership with SCG Packaging)
  • HCM +2.3% (receives NDA acceptance in China for Fruquintinib in second-line gastric cancer)
  • BWXT +1.9% (awarded $45 bln DOE contract) SSL +1.4% (secures $3 bln five-year term loan and revolving credit facility agreement)
  • JELD +1.1% (selling Australasia business for $461 mln)
  • MT +1.1% (establishes renewable energy JV with Casa dos Ventos in Brazil)

Analyst comments:

  • RUN +4.1% (upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc Capital Markets)
  • BJRI +3.2% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush)
  • CMCSA +1.3% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Atlantic Equities)
  • EMR +1.1% (upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research)

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 18th of April 2023 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Archer Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 1.50 kroner (+)
* Delivery Hero Raised to Neutral at Exane; PT 35 euros (+)
* Emerson Electric Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $103
* Esker Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT 175 euros
* IntegraFin Raised to Buy at Numis; PT 362 pence (+)
* Nokian Renkaat Raised to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 9.50 euros
* Nvidia Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $355
* Orange Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 13.50 euros
* Remy Cointreau Raised to Outperform at Bernstein
* Telenor Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 135 kroner

>>> Down
* ALK-Abello Cut to Hold at DNB Markets; PT 110 kroner
* Carlsberg Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein
* Cellavision Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 160 kronor
* Deliveroo Cut to Neutral at Exane; PT 100 pence (+)
* Global Payments Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $124
* Holcim Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 57 Swiss francs
* Intervest Offices & Warehouses Cut to Underperform at Oddo BHF
* INVISIO AB Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 242 kronor
* Liberty Energy Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* Mapfre Cut to Sell at Berenberg; PT 1.62 euros
* Marathon Petroleum Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $135
* OMV Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 42.30 euros
* Prometheus Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $200
* Prometheus Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $200
* Prometheus Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $200
* Prometheus Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse; PT $200
* Rovio Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 9.25 euros
* Rovio Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 9.25 euros
* Vale ADRs Cut at Citi on Iron Ore Weakness, China Steel Demand
* Valero Energy Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $135
* Virbac Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 293 euros (+)

>>> Initiation
* Atria Rated New Reduce at Inderes; PT 11.50 euros (+)
* Carnival Rated New Hold at Baptista Research; PT $11
* CentralNic Rated New Buy at Numis; PT 180 pence
* EuroAPI Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 16.90 euros
* HomeToGo Rated New Buy at M.M. Warburg; PT 6.70 euros (+)
* Hydrogen Refueling Solutions Rated New Outperform at Oddo BHF
* Maire Tecnimont Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT 5.22 euros
* Musti Group Rated New Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 22.50 euros (+)
* NCAB Group Rated New Buy at DNB Markets; PT 75 kronor
* Nike Rated New Hold at Baptista Research; PT $138
* Nolato Rated New Buy at SEB Equities; PT 60 kronor
* Prysmian Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 43 euros
* Richter Rated New Buy at Berenberg
* Siemens Energy Rated New Add at AlphaValue/Baader (+)

>>> Call
* BofA Says Earnings Defy Tough Forecasts With Big Upside Surprise
* Carlsberg Cut at Bernstein After Outperformance, Remy Upgraded
* Ericsson 1Q Ahead, While 2Q Guidance Falls Short, Citi Says (+)
* Holcim Cut at Stifel on Valuation, Sees Better Value in Sector
* HSBC Cut at JPMorgan on Valuation, Impairment Charges
* JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Says Recent Tech Rally Looks Set to Fade
* Mapfre Cut to Sell at Berenberg With Little Room to Disappoint
* OMV, Repsol Cut at Morgan Stanley on Refining Margin Pressures
* Prysmian New Overweight at Morgan Stanley on Grid Exposure
* Richter Started at Buy at Berenberg on Vraylar Potential (+)
* Sika Outlook to Offset Concern on Building Slowdown, Says Baader (+)

FT : GSK bets on cough drug with $2bn deal for Canadian biotech

GSK bets on cough drug with $2bn deal for Canadian biotech
UK pharma group agrees to buy Bellus Health in effort to strengthen pipeline

GSK has agreed to buy Canadian biotech Bellus Health in a $2bn deal, its largest acquisition since the UK drugmaker spun off its consumer health division last year.

The deal is designed to bolster GSK’s drug pipeline by adding Bellus Health’s speciality medicine for a debilitating and persistent cough, a condition that GSK says affects 10mn people.

The drug, camlipixant, is in a late-stage trial. Luke Miels, GSK’s chief commercial officer, said it had the potential to be “best-in-class”.

GSK will pay $14.75 per share in cash for Bellus, representing a premium of more than 100 per cent to the Canadian’s company’s closing share price on Monday.

TEchCrunch : A new Drake x The Weeknd track just blew up — but it’s an AI fake

A new Drake x The Weeknd track just blew up — but it’s an AI fake

A song featuring the voices of Drake and The Weeknd called “Heart on My Sleeve” has amassed over 250,000 Spotify streams and 10 million views on TikTok. But the two renowned musicians had nothing to do with the song — an artist going by the name “Ghostwriter” generated the song using AI.

Drake and The Weeknd have not yet responded to the song, but Drake recently commented on AI-generated music that rips off his voice. When Drake noticed an AI model of himself singing “Munch” by Ice Spice, he wrote on his Instagram story, “This is the final straw AI.” It’s possible he was messing around, but he would be far from the first major artist to take issue with the rising count of deepfake songs.

In 2020, Jay-Z’s agency Roc Nation submitted copyright strikes against YouTube uploads of AI-generated Jay-Z deepfakes, but YouTube ended up reinstating the videos. And just last week, the same thing happened to Eminem; UMG, which represents both of these rappers, issued a copyright strike on AI-generated YouTube videos of Eminem rapping about cats.

Ghostwriter and Spotify did not immediately respond to TechCrunch’s requests for comment.

Copyright law is not technologically advanced enough to have specific guidelines regarding generative AI. But in the legal code’s existing state, transformative parody is permissible. However, these laws are very much open to interpretation, since the idea of what makes work “transformative” is subjective, and there is little case law to set precedent — historically, many of these cases have settled before reaching a judge.

UMG has recently taken steps to prevent the proliferation of AI-generated music that rips off its recording artists. According to a Financial Times report, UMG asked streaming services like Spotify to prevent AI companies from using its music to train their models.

“We have a moral and commercial responsibility to our artists to work to prevent the unauthorized use of their music and to stop platforms from ingesting content that violates the rights of artists and other creators,” a UMG representative said in a statement. The representative said that the rise of AI-generated music “begs the question as to which side of history all stakeholders in the music ecosystem want to be on: the side of artists, fans and human creative expression, or on the side of deep fakes, fraud and denying artists their due compensation.”


Once any kind of artistic work is part of a dataset, it can be hard to remove it. To help bring control back to artists, technologists Mat Dryhurst and Holly Herndon founded Spawning AI. One of their projects, “Have I Been Trained,” allows users to search for their artwork and see if it has been incorporated into an AI training set without their consent.

In some cases, though, removing one’s intellectual property from AI models can be like looking for a needle in a haystack. A living illustrator who has crafted detailed, high fantasy artwork for franchises like “Dungeons & Dragons,” Greg Rutkowski was one of Stable Diffusion’s most popular search terms when it launched in September, allowing users to easily replicate his distinctive style. Rutkowski never consented to his artwork being used to train the algorithm, and once the flood gates are opened, it might be too late for Rutkowski to regain the control he used to have over his work.

For now, Ghostwriter’s fake Drake and The Weeknd song remains on Spotify, but it may not be there for long.

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Mowi (PND TH) +2.2%
    • Mowi Prelim 1Q Ebit About EU322M
  • BAE (BSP TH) +1.8%
  • Securitas (S7MB TH) +1.5%
  • Nel (D7G TH) +1.3%
  • Aker BP (ARC TH) +1.3%
  • MTU Aero (MTX TH) +1.2%
    • MTU Aero 1Q ‘Very Strong,’ Better Than Expected: Street Wrap
  • Orange (FTE TH) +1.1%
    • Orange Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 13.50 euros
  • Deutsche Bank (DBK TH) +1%
  • Prysmian (AEU TH) +1%
    • Prysmian New Overweight at Morgan Stanley on Grid Exposure
  • Carlsberg (CBGB TH) -0.7%
    • Carlsberg Cut at Bernstein After Outperformance, Remy Upgraded
  • Nokia (NOA3 TH) -0.8%
  • Unilever (UNVB TH) -1.1%
  • TUI (TUI1 TH) -1.1%
  • OMV (OMV TH) -1.2%
    • OMV, Repsol Cut at Morgan Stanley on Refining Margin Pressures
  • Repsol (REP TH) -1.4%
    • OMV, Repsol Cut at Morgan Stanley on Refining Margin Pressures
  • Ericsson (ERCB TH) -1.7%
    • Ericsson Guides for Choppy 2023 as Earnings Top Estimates (1)