>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 19th of April 2023 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Air France-KLM Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT 2.20 euros
* EasyJet Raised to Hold at Stifel; PT 550 pence
* Global Payments Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $156
* Incap Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 12 euros
* Kuehne + Nagel Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank
* Lufthansa Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT 13 euros
* Netflix Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $390 (+)
* Netflix Raised to Buy at Fubon; PT $389 (+)
* Prysmian Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 44 euros
* Ryanair Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT 18 euros
* Shaftesbury Capital Raised to Buy at Numis; PT 160 pence (+)
* SOITEC Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 180 euros
* TUI Raised to Hold at Stifel; PT 6.91 euros

>>> Down
* *BASIC-FIT CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT KBC, PT EU40 (+)
* Network International Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse
* On The Beach Cut to Sell at Stifel; PT 120 pence
* Repsol Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT 14 euros
* Societe Fonciere Lyonnaise Cut to Underperform at Oddo BHF
* Tecnotree Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 54 euro cents (+)
* Viscofan Cut to Hold at Bestinver; PT 71.45 euros

>>> Initiation
* BAT ADRs Rated New Buy at Baptista Research; PT $49.30
* Compass Group Rated New Outperform at Bernstein
* Edenred Rated New Outperform at Bernstein
* Mobileye Rated New Buy at Daiwa; PT $50
* Paypoint Resumed Buy at Jefferies; PT 550 pence
* SGS Rated New Outperform at Bernstein
* Tracsis Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT 1,340 pence (+)
* Vale ADRs Rated New Hold at Baptista Research; PT $18.10
* VinaCapital Vietnam Rated New Overweight at Barclays
* Volex Rated New Buy at Peel Hunt; PT 300 pence

>>> Call
* Basic-Fit Downgraded to Hold at KBC Following Strong Rally (+)
* Citi Sees Resilient Earnings Season for UK Housebuilder Stocks
* Prysmian Upgraded to Buy at Citi on Decarbonization Tailwinds
* Soitec Overhang Now Removed, Jefferies Upgrades Stock to Buy
* Stocks Face Hit as $800 Billion Stimulus to Fade, Citi Says
* JPMorgan Asset Warns Against Complacency Despite Volatility Drop

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Just Eat Takeaway (T5W TH) +5.8%
    • *JUST EAT TAKEAWAY RAISES FY ADJ. EBITDA GUIDANCE
  • Delivery Hero (DHER TH) +2.7%
  • Aker BP (ARC TH) +1.7%
    • Aker BP 1Q Avg Production Beats Estimates
  • Lufthansa (LHA TH) +1.4%
  • Air France-KLM (AFR TH) +1.2%
    • Watch European Airlines as United Sees Travel, Profit Recovery
  • EDP Renovaveis (EDW TH) +1%
  • Orsted (D2G TH) +0.9%
    • Orsted, Acciona Sign Deal to Progress in Floating Offshore Wind
  • Novozymes (NZM2 TH) +0.9%
  • Novo Nordisk (NOVC TH) +0.8%
    • Novo, Sanofi 1Q Upgrade Scope in Focus, Tough Base for Others
  • E.On (EOAN TH) -0.8%
  • Renault (RNL TH) -1.4%
    • *EUROPE CAR SALES RISE MOST IN ALMOST 2 YEARS AS SUPPLY RECOVERS
  • ASML (ASME TH) -2%
    • ASML Sales Outlook Beats Estimates as Demand Remains Strong (1)
  • Nokia (NOA3 TH) -2.1%
  • Heineken (HNK1 TH) -2.1%
    • *HEINEKEN 1Q ORG. BEER VOLUME -3%, EST. -1.04%
  • Voestalpine (VAS TH) -4.1%
    • Voestalpine Offers €250M Convertible Bond to Optimize Funding

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • No major mover
MDAX:
  • Delivery Hero (DHER TH) +2.7%
    • Just Eat Takeaway Boosts FY Adjusted Ebitda Forecast
  • Lufthansa (LHA TH) +1.4%
    • Watch European Airlines as United Sees Travel, Profit Recovery
SDAX:
  • SFC Energy (F3C TH) +1.4%
  • Hamborner REIT (HABA TH) +0.6%
  • Deutsche PBB (PBB TH) +0.5%
  • PNE AG (PNE3 TH) +0.5%
  • 1&1 (DRI TH) +0.4%
  • SMA Solar (S92 TH) -0.1%
  • Varta (VAR1 TH) -0.2%
  • Hochtief (HOT TH) -0.6%
  • flatexDEGIRO (FTK TH) -0.7%
  • Suedzucker (SZU TH) -1.1%
    • Shares gained 13% yesterday

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 19th of April 2023

>>> Up
* Air France-KLM Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT 2.20 euros
* EasyJet Raised to Hold at Stifel; PT 550 pence
* Global Payments Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $156
* Incap Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 12 euros
* Kuehne + Nagel Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank
* Lufthansa Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT 13 euros
* Prysmian Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 44 euros
* Ryanair Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT 18 euros
* SOITEC Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 180 euros
* TUI Raised to Hold at Stifel; PT 6.91 euros

>>> Down
* Network International Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse
* On The Beach Cut to Sell at Stifel; PT 120 pence
* Repsol Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT 14 euros
* Societe Fonciere Lyonnaise Cut to Underperform at Oddo BHF
* Viscofan Cut to Hold at Bestinver; PT 71.45 euros

>>> Initiation
* BAT ADRs Rated New Buy at Baptista Research; PT $49.30
* Compass Group Rated New Outperform at Bernstein
* Edenred Rated New Outperform at Bernstein
* Mobileye Rated New Buy at Daiwa; PT $50
* Paypoint Resumed Buy at Jefferies; PT 550 pence
* SGS Rated New Outperform at Bernstein
* Vale ADRs Rated New Hold at Baptista Research; PT $18.10
* VinaCapital Vietnam Rated New Overweight at Barclays
* Volex Rated New Buy at Peel Hunt; PT 300 pence

>>> Call
* Citi Sees Resilient Earnings Season for UK Housebuilder Stocks
* Prysmian Upgraded to Buy at Citi on Decarbonization Tailwinds
* Soitec Overhang Now Removed, Jefferies Upgrades Stock to Buy
* Stocks Face Hit as $800 Billion Stimulus to Fade, Citi Says
* JPMorgan Asset Warns Against Complacency Despite Volatility Drop

>>> What to look at today - 19th of April 2023

A gauge of Asian equities fell as traders weighed earnings from Wall Street and Chinese stocks were hit by shareholders’ plans to trim their stakes. MSCI Inc.’s Asia Pacific Index declined 0.4% while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index slid as much as 1.5% before paring losses. Shares of some Korean drama production studios also slipped after Netflix Inc.’s subscriber numbers trailed Wall Street estimates. Futures for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 both declined. The weakness in the Chinese shares may be due to “people digesting the wave of share reduction in A-Shares and some H-Shares,” said Willer Chen, a senior research analyst at Forsyth Barr Asia. US two-year yields, which are more sensitive to imminent policy moves than longer maturities, were little changed at 4.20%, while the yield on 10-year bonds held at 3.58%. Government bonds in Australia and New Zealand dropped, while the dollar was steady. Japan’s Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. sold yen-denominated Additional Tier 1 bonds, becoming the first major global bank to issue such debt since the collapse of Credit Suisse Group AG last month. Swaps are pricing in a quarter-point hike by the Fed in May, with rate cuts starting to take place in JulyOil steadied as investors weighed signs of shrinking US crude stockpiles against concerns over an uneven demand recovery. Gold was flat. US After Hours ISRG +9%, UAL +2% higher on earnings; NFLX -0.7% slightly lower on earnings/guidance; CDW -9.1% falls on weak guidance; FOXA -0.4% settles lawsuit with Dominion..  Despite the hawkish comments by the Fed officials, the Cboe Volatility Index stayed at the lowest since January 2022, remaining below 17. Bank of America’s GFSI Market Risk Index — a gauge of global volatility across assets — held near the lowest since February 2022. In another sign of easing problems in the banking sector, Western Alliance Bancorp shares surged as much as 20% in late Tuesday trading after it beat earnings estimates and said deposits recovered after the collapse of three US regional banks.  On the earnings front, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. fell as its results showed traders failed to capitalize on Wall Street’s fixed-income boom, contributing to firm-wide revenue that trailed estimates. Bank of America Corp. rose after profit beat expectations and Netflix retreated after the bell as its subscriber growth and revenue outlook missed projections. Bitcoin held slightly above the closely watched $30,000 level. 

Nikkei -0.26% Hang Seng -0.68% CSI -0.41% Shanghai -0.16% Shenzen -0.19%

Eur$ 1.0968 CNH 6.8829 CNY 6.8784 JPY 134.33 GBP 1.2418 CHF 0.8970 RUB 81.8000 TRY 19.4016 WTI$ 80.63 -0.28% Gold 2,004.2 -0.05% BTC 30,226 -0.65% ETH 2,087 -0.30%

S&P -0.17% Nasdaq -0.26% EuroStoxx -0.16% FTSE -0.03% Dax -0.10% SMI -0.02%

Macro :
- Stocks Face Hit as $800 Billion Stimulus to Fade, Citi Says
- London New Home Sales Tumble to Lowest in More Than a Decade
- Oil Steadies as Signs of Inventory Draws Vie With Slowdown Fears
- Taiwan To Reportedly Buy 400 Land-Based Missiles To Fend Off Possible Chinese Attack

Keep an eye on :
- ABI BB : Bud Light Sees Market Share Losses to Peers, Industry Data Show
- ABVX FP : Abivax Names Michael Ferguson as Chief Commerical Officer
- ALV GY : Allianz X Seeks to Sell 5% Stake in N26 at Discount: FT
- ASML NA : ASML 1Q Net Sales Beats Estimates
- BAMI IM : Banco BPM Accelerates Search For Partner For Payments Unit
- BAR BB : Barco 1Q Revenue Meets Estimates
- BOL FP : Bollore Raises Tender Offer Price If Bid Leads to Logistics Deal
- BC IM : Brunello Cucinelli 1Q Net Revenue Beats Estimates
- ACA FP : Crédit Agricole, Worldline in Talks for Merchant Services
- DBAN GY : Deutsche Beteiligungs AG Sees FY Net Income EU85M to EU115M
- DIS US : Disney Is Poised to Eliminate Thousands of Jobs Next Week
- EDP PL : EDP Says First-Quarter Electricity Generation Rises 4% Y/y
- EQT SS : CK Hutch Set to Get €3 Billion in Italian Network Deal With EQT
- GAM SW : GAM Holding Confirms Talks With Liontrust, Other Parties
- GXI GY : Gerresheimer Offers Up to 3.14m New No-Par Bearer Shares
- HEIA NA : Heineken 1Q Org. Beer Volume Misses Estimates
- HYQ GY : Hypoport Volume of Mortgage Finance Increased Slightly in 1Q
- TKWY NA : Just Eat Boosts Profit Forecast As Recovery Continues
- LIO LN : ZCG Said to Compete With Liontrust for Swiss Asset Manager GAM
- META US : Meta Prepares More Layoffs Across Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram
- OVH FP : OVH Sees FY Adjusted Ebitda Margin Above 36%
- PUB FP : Watch Publicis, WPP After Omnicom’s Earnings Beat Estimates
- SPM IM : Saipem Gets Offshore Drilling Contract Extension Worth ~$280m
- SALME NO : Salmon Evolution Offering Prices at NOK7.70/Share
- TKWY NA : Just Eat Takeaway Boosts FY Adjusted Ebitda Forecast
- TLGO SM : DSB Executes Option With Talgo for Eight More Train Compositions
- TIT IM : Italy, Macquarie to Submit Improved Bid for Telecom Italia Grid
- TRI FP : Trigano in Exclusive Talks to Buy Abalain Group
- VOE AV : voestalpine AG today launches an offering of EUR 250 million convertible bonds to optimise its
- VOW GY : Volkswagen Moves to Certify ID.4 SUV Eligible for US Tax Credits
- WDP BB : WDP FY Adjusted EPS Forecast Beats Estimates
- WLN FP : Crédit Agricole, Worldline in Talks for Merchant Services

WSJ : Kidney-Care Specialist Diaverum Expected to Be Sold in $2 Billion Deal

Kidney-Care Specialist Diaverum Expected to Be Sold in $2 Billion Deal
Mubadala-backed M42 would buy the operator of 440 dialysis clinics from buyout firm Bridgepoint

A Mubadala Investment Co.-backed healthcare company is nearing a deal to acquire kidney-care provider Diaverum for more than $2 billion including debt, according to people familiar with the matter, extending the Abu Dhabi sovereign-wealth fund’s bet on healthcare.

M42, a newly launched healthcare operator owned by Mubadala and a partner company, G42, is planning to acquire Diaverum from U.K.-based buyout firm Bridgepoint Group BPT 2.47% PLC. A deal is expected to be announced later this week, assuming talks don’t break down, the people said.

The deal would help bolster M42’s existing operations in the Middle East while accelerating its stated ambition to expand its healthcare services globally. Its existing holdings include Amana Healthcare, a U.A.E. provider of rehabilitation and other services, and Imperial College London Diabetes Centre, a partnership set up with the U.K. university to treat the growing demand for diabetes care in the Emirates.

Diaverum, based in Sweden, oversees a global network of 440 dialysis clinics, almost triple the 155 facilities Bridgepoint inherited when it bought the business in 2007 for an undisclosed amount. Diaverum has also expanded geographically over that period, operating in 23 countries, up from 15.

Dialysis is a procedure to remove waste products and excess fluid from the blood when the kidneys stop working properly. It often involves diverting blood to a machine to be cleaned. The size of the dialysis market globally is expected to grow in coming years because of aging populations and the increased incidence of kidney disease related to diabetes and other conditions.

Diaverum’s operations include 40 dialysis facilities in Saudi Arabia where Diaverum operates under a five-year contract with the Saudi Ministry of Health, according to the company’s website. Confidence in winning renewal of the license in 2024 was key to the deal, which gave M42 an advantage over other bidders because of its existing base in the region and Mubadala’s backing, said some bankers following the sale process.

Mubadala is the investment arm for the Abu Dhabi government. It oversees $284 billion in assets and invests across a range of industries including business services, energy, financials, healthcare and industrials.

Bridgepoint manages more than €37 billion, equivalent to about $40.6 billion of assets, focusing its investments in industrials, business and financial services, consumer and healthcare, according to the firm’s website.

Bridgepoint attempted to list Diaverum in an initial public offering in 2020. It withdrew the IPO after not achieving a high-enough valuation.

WSJ : Omnicom to Reduce Global Real-Estate Space Even as Employees Return to the

Omnicom to Reduce Global Real-Estate Space Even as Employees Return to the Office
The owner of ad agencies including BBDO and TBWA predicts continued growth throughout 2023 as clients spend on performance- and event-based marketing services

Omnicom Group Inc. said it will significantly reduce its real-estate footprint and formalize return-to-office requirements for all U.S. employees as the company said it expects growth to continue through 2023, an indication that executives believe marketers’ continued spending will help the advertising giant largely avoid the economic headwinds that have hit the tech and finance industries.

Omnicom, which owns agencies such as BBDO, OMD and TBWA, will require all U.S. employees to return to the office at least three days per week, Chief Executive John Wren said on a call to discuss the company’s first-quarter earnings.

“The great resignation is over,” said Mr. Wren. “Naturally, there will be individual cases where people won’t want to come back, and they’ll seek other alternatives. But in the scheme of things, it is not going to be significant.”

Organic revenue grew 5.2% year-over-year in the first quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of 3.9%, according to Wells Fargo. Total revenue for the quarter was $3.44 billion, a 1% increase over the first quarter of 2022, and Omnicom is on track to meet its own predictions of 3% to 5% organic growth for the year, said Mr. Wren.

Organic revenue is a metric that removes the effects of currency fluctuations, acquisitions and disposals.

Omnicom was the first of the major ad holding companies to report its earnings for the first quarter. Its share price hit a 52-week high of $96.78 before the market closed Tuesday and continued to rise in after-hours trading.

Omnicom plans to reduce its global real-estate holdings by more than 1.6 million square feet, said Mr. Wren. Since 2018, the company’s total headcount has increased by approximately 4,000 while office space decreased by 35%, he said.

Mr. Wren acknowledged that Omnicom would spend more money in the short-term to reintroduce employees to in-office requirements. In order to facilitate the transition, Omnicom has also invested in U.S. satellite offices such as locations in Connecticut, New Jersey and Long Island, N.Y., designed to reduce New York-area employees’ commutes, he said.

The company reported $119.2 million in pretax real-estate repositioning costs for the quarter, but this upfront payment will significantly reduce rent and occupancy expenses in the long term, said Chief Financial Officer Philip Angelastro.

Mr. Wren noted continued uncertainty related to the war in Ukraine and rising instability in the Middle East, as well as the collapse of several banks that served the tech industry.

“Clients are getting cautious, and they’re trying where they can to avoid long-term commitments and create as much flexibility in their spending as possible,” said Mr. Wren. “Therefore we’re doing the same.”

One way Omnicom will try to control costs is by opening three company campuses in India as hiring and offshoring operations in that country continue to grow, he said.

The company’s strongest revenue growth came from so-called precision marketing services, which allow advertisers to target consumers directly by using behavioral data, as well as experiential, or event-based, marketing, with the latter seeing especially strong growth outside the U.S., Mr. Wren said.

The company will also increase its investment in AI tools, primarily through a partnership with Microsoft Corp. Clients that want to participate in related projects will combine their data with Omnicom’s own database in order to find new ways to target consumers, according to Mr. Wren.

“There’s a lot of ethical questions as well as privacy questions,” he said. “We’re testing it, playing with it, but certainly not deploying it to the full extent of the power that it has.”

FT : Central London house prices suffer biggest annual fall since 2019

Central London house prices suffer biggest annual fall since 2019
Property values in prime areas of the UK capital declined 5% in March on a year earlier

Central London property prices dropped almost 5 per cent in the 12 months to March, the largest annual fall in three and a half years, as the UK’s poor economic outlook and fears of a further decline in the housing market stopped wealthy buyers from committing to deals.

The price of property in prime areas of the capital dropped to £1,261 per square foot last month, down from £1,326 a year earlier — the lowest level since mid-2021, according to data provider LonRes, as values continued the decline that began in late 2022 after a buoyant 18 months.

“The steam has come out of the market. It was a bit inflated last year,” said Anthony Payne, managing director at LonRes.

Property values in high-end areas of the city, such as Mayfair and Kensington, tend to be less susceptible to the recent rise in mortgage costs as the market relies on cash-rich foreign buyers. But Payne said buyers had become more cautious over concerns that prices could still fall further as the result of a combination of factors, including concerns over the economic outlook and rising interest rates.

The discretionary nature of the central London markets has meant buyers and sellers can afford to remain in a stand-off, Payne added. Wealthy buyers with multiple homes are under less pressure to make a purchase, while sellers are often in a better position to wait out the downturn.

“The vendors are still in yesteryear,” Payne said, adding: “We’re just in that void at the moment where the two are not meeting.” 


Transaction numbers in March were down by a fifth on the same month last year, while prices per square foot dipped below the three year pre-pandemic average for the first time in nearly two years, according to the data.

“Across the market, I hear that a lot of agents are quieter,” said James Forbes, director at high-end London estate agency Forbes Gilbert-Green. “My longer-term concern would be: do we maintain our position as a global financial centre? The concern for all of us in prime central London is ‘brand London’ and ‘brand UK’ remaining positive. That drives our market.” 

The central London market enjoyed a boost between mid-2021 and autumn last year, sparked by the easing of Covid-19 travel restriction and foreign buyers taking advantage of the weak pound and low interest rates.

The chaos triggered by the “mini” Budget of shortlived prime minister Liz Truss last September marked a turning point as investors’ confidence in the UK fell sharply and a large number of home sales fell through.

“To invest in London you want economic and political stability,” said Richard Donnell, executive director at property search website Zoopla.

The wider UK housing market has so far defied predictions that higher mortgage costs could knock 10 per cent off house prices, with relatively small declines registered in recent months.

FT : Italy hopes for EU concession on biofuels

Italy hopes for EU concession on biofuels
G7 statement raises hopes for exception to emissions legislation

At a meeting in Japan last weekend, the environment ministers of the G7 countries gave Italy’s big biofuels industry a boost.

The EU last month passed decade-in-the-making legislation to ban combustion-engine cars from 2035, including those running on biofuels made from plant or animal waste. The goal is to make all European cars run on non-polluting electric engines, a blow to Italian and German makers of cars and components as well as companies investing heavily in fuels made from renewable energy sources.

But Italian hopes of securing an exception to the ban for cars run on biofuels have been raised by the statement from G7 ministers in Japan that mentioned both e-fuels and biofuels as a climate-friendly alternatives to petrol and diesel.

Already one big exception has been made by the EU. After a last-minute negotiation, Brussels and Berlin struck a controversial deal to exclude from the ban cars running on electrofuels — synthetic fuels created by combining hydrogen extracted from water with carbon taken from the air.

German carmakers, such as Porsche, have heavily invested in e-fuels following the industry’s diesel emissions scandal. The last-minute compromise meant Brussels could finally pass the emissions legislation with Germany’s support, despite opposition from a group of countries, including Italy.

The exception obtained by Berlin has drawn criticism in Italy that it was made to help German companies. “It is simply intolerable,” said Italian lawmaker Luca Squeri, of Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party. One veteran Italian car executive added: “Germany is hawkish when it comes to EU rules implementation unless the rules have the potential to negatively impact their own economic interests.”

But some Italian autos and energy executives see the EU’s e-fuels decision as good news because it “effectively opens the door to exceptions”. Readily available biofuels, which are also cheaper than e-fuels, can be another such exception, they say.

Neither e-fuels nor biofuels are technically compliant with the EU’s zero emissions legislation. And there’s an open debate between scientists and experts as to whether e-fuels and biofuels can be considered carbon-neutral.

But Italian sector experts have long championed the principle of “technological neutrality” when it comes to climate targets, under which the EU should limit itself to setting the targets, leaving member states free as to how to achieve them.

“It is mandatory to strongly defend the principle of technological neutrality based on which emission targets can be achieved through biofuels too . . . we need a scientific and non-ideological approach,” said MEP Carlo Fidanza, who heads the Brothers of Italy — the senior coalition partner in the Italian government — delegation at the European parliament.

Italian energy group Eni currently produces 1.1mn tonnes of biofuels per year, after having converted two of its domestic oil refineries into biofuels makers. Another bio-refinery is being built. Eni has also vertically integrated its supply chain by importing vegetable oils (excluding palm oil) for biofuel production from its African plants.

The group said it aimed to ramp up production to reach 5mn tonnes per year by the end of the decade. Eni is also the leading European producer of hydrotreated vegetable oil, or HVO, a type of diesel entirely produced from renewable energy sources.

Industry experts say Berlin sees e-fuels as a potential option to avoid having to convert its whole car industry, Europe’s largest, to electric vehicles. But analysts and lawmakers described the Commission’s concession as a red herring. A paper published by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research says e-fuels are likely to be in short supply for a long time to come. “Even if the market ramp-up happens . . . the global supply in 2035 would not even be sufficient to cover the indispensable German needs for aviation, shipping and chemicals,” said researcher Falko Ueckerdt.

After next year’s European parliament elections, officials in Rome and Milan are hoping to reopen the negotiations with a new Commission following the e-fuels concession. Italy’s environment minister Gilberto Pichetto Fratin said at the weekend: “We must restart the dialogue with European countries to reach the best data-based solutions [to meet emissions targets].

“Biofuels will be able to replace petrol and diesel and save Italy’s automotive industry.”