Business Of Fashion : The Party May Be Over, but LVMH Has Moves to Make

The Party May Be Over, but LVMH Has Moves to Make
This week, softening sales growth at the French giant was the latest sign that the post-pandemic luxury boom is over, but chairman Bernard Arnault may be able to play the weak market to his advantage.

This week, sector bellwether LVMH reported softening sales growth, the latest sign that the luxury goods boom is over as shoppers sober up from post-Covid, YOLO (“you only live once”)-fuelled euphoria, and inflation and high interest rates weigh heavily on discretionary spending.

Sales at LVMH’s critical fashion and leather goods division, which includes key megabrands Louis Vuitton and Dior, grew just 9 percent in Q3, missing estimates by over two percentage points. The result was sharply down from the 21 percent jump the unit generated in the previous quarter and a far cry from the heady days of record revenue growth as the division roared out of the pandemic.

The news sent LVMH shares tumbling to their lowest level since the start of the year and dragged down stock prices at rival luxury players including Richemont, Kering and Burberry.

But a closer look at the results suggests that LVMH chairman Bernard Arnault has a few moves up his sleeve and may be able to play the sales miss to his advantage. Here are a few takeaways from the French giant’s latest disclosure:

1. Luxury’s Party in the USA Is Over

Nowhere has the softness been more pronounced than in the US, where pandemic-era stimulus checks contributed to a major surge in luxury spending from aspirational consumers.

With China mired in slow growth, the US market has been critical to luxury sales momentum in recent years. Some luxury players, particularly Kering, moved to tap surging demand with a deeper push into the US, including new stores in second-tier cities, particularly in the American South.

But demand has since dried up and LVMH’s latest results offered no sign that US sales, which grew just 2 percent in Q3, were on the mend, raising the spectre of empty stores from Austin to Nashville.

2. Loewe, Celine: Mega-Labels in the Making

Despite a poor Q3, LVMH clearly has moves up its sleeve, however. For a group whose key fashion and leather goods portfolio has long been dependent on Louis Vuitton and Dior, the latest results revealed just how far the company has come in turning some of its smaller projects into multi-billion-dollar businesses, notably Hedi Slimane’s Celine reboot and Jonathan Anderson’s reinvention of Loewe.

LVMH doesn’t break out figures for its brands, but market sources suggest Slimane’s Celine now generates more than €2.5 billion in annual revenue, while Anderson’s Loewe is close to crossing the €2 billion mark. Tellingly, management called out Celine and Loewe, as well as long-standing powerhouses Louis Vuitton and Dior, for their “strong performance” in a call with analysts following the results.

The industry is currently swirling with speculation on a new round of designer musical chairs, including what star ex-Gucci designer Alessandro Michele might do next. With the right creative configuration and level of marketing spend, could LVMH leverage its deep pockets to out-muscle competitors weakened by the challenging market and re-energize Givenchy or Fendi, thereby adding to its stable of mega-brands?


3. A Silver Lining: M&A Opportunities

Of course, future growth drivers could also come from M&A. And while the latest drop in LVMH’s share price isn’t exactly great news for Arnault’s net worth, the sector-wide depression in stock prices could open up compelling opportunities for M&A for the cash-rich group, with key targets cheaper than ever.

Richemont’s Cartier, for one, has long been on Arnault’s wishlist and likely remains so, despite his $16-billion takeover of the US jeweller Tiffany, which lacks Cartier’s true luxury credentials. Could this be the time to make a play? Of course, Britain’s Burberry, without a controlling shareholder, is technically for sale every day of the week. And the Prada family may be tempted to sell. Stay tuned.

Miss Tweed : Richemont may need to step in to help Farfetch

Richemont may need to step in to help Farfetch

During Milan and Paris Fashion Week, everybody was talking about Farfetch. The company’s stock market value collapse and mounting losses have become major sources of concern. More than 500 Italian boutiques depend on Farfetch’s marketplace to offload stock and many brands and department stores such as Harrods and Bergdorf Goodman use its proprietary technology for their online business.

When it was launched in 2008, the London-based company aimed to revolutionize online retail and help fashion embrace the new digital world order. Today, it’s the fashion and luxury industry that needs to help it and some major players such as Richemont.

In three years, Farfetch’s stock market value has plunged from a high of $21.6 billion to $574 million. A spectacular drop. And the share price seems to be continuing to fall. “The drop in share price is what is driving the narrative around the company now,” said the head of an investment fund that believed in Farfetch many years ago and still has a sizeable stake.

This month, Forbes ranked Farfetch No. 1 on the list of potential retail bankruptcies this year. Several CEOs and managers of fashion brands told Miss Tweed that they were uncomfortable about signing a deal with Farfetch due to its perceived precarious financial situation.

Industry players are concerned Farfetch’s troubles could have ripple effects throughout the entire ecosystem. There is a systemic risk as there is for banks. If one big bank goes under, this puts the whole financial system under huge pressure. The same goes for Farfetch since it’s the biggest marketplace for fashion and luxury goods. Many small brands and retailers depend on it.

Some industry sources told Miss Tweed that Farfetch was trying to borrow more money to replenish its coffers. They also said Farfetch bought a big piece of land in Portugal to build a new campus for its engineers, but construction work has been put on hold due to the company’s financial difficulties. Farfetch has declined to comment for this report.

It’s also possible that Farfetch will be delisted and is forced sell some assets to pay down debt. Richemont may to have to step in and put out a statement clarifying its position and intentions vis à vis the company. It’s the only strategic shareholder who can help, as we explain further. Richemont and Farfetch may not be technically “married,” but they have agreed to align their interests – for better and for worse. Richemont cannot run away from its responsibilities. The Swiss group declined to comment for this report.

RICHEMONT PARTNERSHIP
The two companies are to become more integrated after the complex agreement they signed last year becomes effective. The European Commission is due to approve it by Oct. 20. Once the transaction gets the regulatory green light, the Swiss luxury group will use Farfetch’s technology for all of its watch, fashion and jewelry brands including Cartier, Van Cleef & Arpels, Chloé, IWC and Vacheron Constantin, and put these brands’ products on the marketplace.

Cartier is the world’s No. 1 jeweler and is estimated to generate more than €10 billion in annual revenue, around 8 percent of which comes from online sales. Farfetch is to get an estimated 7 percent cut of the revenues that Richemont brands will generate online using its technology.

Farfetch will also re-platform Richemont’s Yoox-Net-A-Porter (YNAP) and should get a cut of the online fashion retailer’s revenues. But it has also invested significant sums in these partnerships. Hence, it’s not clear how profitable they will be for Farfetch.

In August last year, Farfetch agreed to buy 47.5 percent of YNAP from Richemont and committed to acquiring a further majority stake if it became profitable in three to five years from the time the deal was completed – which is roughly now.

If Farfetch is struggling, how it is going to be able to sort out YNAP, let alone buy control of it? Richemont was keen to get YNAP off from its balance sheet and rely on Farfetch to sort it out. Richemont Chairman Johann Rupert was hoping Farfetch CEO and founder José Neves would remove this painful thorn from his side. The South African billionaire may end up with a much bigger wound.

As Miss Tweed reported in 2020 and 2021, Richemont has run YNAP to the ground and the company has been losing around €200-€250 million every year. In 2022, Richemont took a €2.7 billion write-down on its value based on Farfetch’s share price at the time,which was around $10. Farfetch shares closed on Friday at $1.63.

With the company’s stock market price in the doldrums, Richemont could take a further hit. Not only does it need to inject cash into YNAP as part of its agreement with Farfetch, it may have to prop up Farfetch as well.

As part of the YNAP deal, the Swiss group is providing a $450 million 10-year credit facility to finance YNAP’s losses depending on certain conditions. Also, once the deal is completed, Richemont is to get a stake of around 11.5 percent in Farfetch in exchange Richemont’s 47.5 percent stake in YNAP. Using Friday’s closing share price, the value of that stake is around $90 million.

This particular transaction values the whole of YNAP at around $190 million. Richemont is to inject $290 million in cash into YNAP, as part of the agreement with Farfetch. This means Richemont is actually paying more in cash than the total value of YNAP – at current Farfetch share prices.

On the fifth anniversary of this transaction, the Swiss group should also receive $250 million, expected to be settled in Farfetch shares. If it had been made today, that would represent a good chunk of the company’s share capital.

SAVING FARFETCH
If Richemont does not step in, who will? LVMH’s Bernard Arnault does not believe in online retail, having lost enough money as it is with various Internet ventures, including 24S, the luxury multi-brand online boutique that works with the group’s Parisian department store Bon Marché.

Chanel and Kering are small minority shareholders in Farfetch and are expected to remain passive, knowing they will likely be further diluted. Industry observers do not see either of them rushing to Farfetch’s rescue. Chanel – like Hermès – does not sell any handbags online and Kering has its own proprietary online technology, having severed ties in 2018 with Yoox, its previous provider. Another strategic minority shareholder in Farfetch is Chalhoub Group, the luxury goods distributor specialized in the Middle East. It is unlikely to step in as well. And there is Chinese online giant Alibaba with which Richemont and Farfetch have a joint venture in China. That is not going too well either, industry sources say, as there is regular friction between Farfetch and Alibaba managers. But Alibaba needs Farfetch to reassure Western luxury brands about doing business in China.

LACK OF FOCUS
So why is Farfetch’s share price so low? The company is worth less than its debt of $917 million as of June 30. On its balance sheet, at mid-year, it had liabilities, including current and financial liabilities, employee benefits, provisions and others totaling $2.9 billion. At the end of the second quarter, Farfetch had cash of $454 million. The company’s earliest debt maturity is 2027. Alibaba and Richemont hold $600 million in 2030 convertible notes, which could at their option be put in mid-2026. The company has no other short-term debt – as of now.

In the six months to June, Farfetch’s profit after tax of $796.4 million last year became a loss of $455.61 million this year. The full-year figure could be more than $600 million. Some analysts expect the company will lower its guidance again when it reports third-quarter results in mid-November.

MARKETPLACE
Farfetch has consistently missed expectations nearly every quarter and more importantly, it has gone in too many different directions in the past four years, industry analysts say.

When it was launched in 2008, Farfetch was originally a marketplace for multi-brand stores. Its purpose was clear: make all the stock held by stores around the world accessible to as many consumers as possible. Back then, there was a contest for the store of the week and each boutique provided entertaining videos and stories that gave the website a warm and friendly personality. Consumers enjoyed browsing the Farfetch marketplace and discovering new fashion designers. Today, there are so many brands that it’s difficult to find out information about any of them, and there is not much editorial content left on the website either.

As more and more brands started selling on Farfetch on a concession basis, the stores’ names were removed. In parallel, Neves invested in the development of several different types of technologies: e-commerce solutions for brands and the Store of the Future, with gimmicks such as digital mirrors that could tell you what was in stock and could be fetched from storage. They were trialed at Browns’ boutique in London’s East End, which Farfetch has since closed. Clothes tags contained RFID chips so that they could be registered in a client’s mobile app and Browns could use this data to suggest various designs to the customer.

When he started Farfetch, Neves’ main argument was: our business model is great, we don’t own any stock. Then he surprised everyone in 2019 by acquiring New Guards Group (NGG) which back then had an enterprise value of $675 million. The idea was to sell the brand’s products on the marketplace. That meant that from now on, Farfetch was going to own stock.

NGG has the license to manufacture and distribute nine fashion brands including Off-White, Palm Angels and Opening Ceremony. It owns a controlling stake in all of them but Off-White, which belongs to LVMH.

However, as Farfetch’s financial resources have started to dry up, the company has had to cut its investment in NGG’s brands. This caused friction with NGG co-founders Davide De Giglio and Andrea Grilli who abruptly left in June. Neves canceled Off-White’s 10-year anniversary show that was supposed to take place in New York in September in homage to its founder Virgil Abloh, who died of a rare form of cancer in November 2021.

NGG’s performance has also been hit by the current downturn and adding to its woes, consumers are moving away from streetwear – its core business. LVMH has the right to take back NGG’s license in January 2026. Off-White is the crown asset, generating €300-€350 million in sales. It has some 70 boutiques and more than 300 points of sale.

Last year, Off-White’s underlying profitability, or Ebitda, was around €100 million. It’s not clear how much Farfetch could raise if it sold NGG. Without Off-White, the company does not quite have the same aura and weight on the fashion market. Being part of a portfolio of brands with Off-White as the flagship is not the same as without. Off-White opens doors for its sister brands.

NGG’s total revenues last year reached more than €620 million. In 2019, many investors and analysts criticized Farfetch for buying NGG, but it turned out that this was actually the only unit generating profits within the company. This year, NGG’s overall sales are expected to be lower.

Neves has acquired several specialized online retailers that are losing money: Stadium Goods in running shoes in 2018, Violet Grey in beauty in 2022. Last year, Farfetch bought Reebok’s European business and pledged to invest in the construction of a €200 million logistics center for the sports brand. You wonder how it will finance that.

Some people close to the company say Farfetch bought the Reebok business to compensate for the potential loss of income if NGG loses the Off-White license in early 2026 should LVMH decide to get it back which is likely. Farfetch has been firing staff from NGG – even though the company is profitable – and hired more than 140 people to help manage its Reebok project in Europe, a source close to the company told Miss Tweed on condition of anonymity.

Reebok is a much more mass-market brand and relies on a much wider distribution network than NGG’s fashion brands. This year, Farfetch was originally expecting to make €400 million in revenue from Reebok, but some industry sources believe that figure will turn out to be much lower.

In the past six months, business has worsened in many segments of the market, not just in streetwear. Trading has also proven difficult in beauty. At the end of August, Farfetch shut down the beauty division of the marketplace after finding it too hard to attract shoppers. Violet Grey continues to operate on its own.

It’s clear that Farfetch has overstretched itself. The company needs to narrow its focus. It must also reassure its partner brands and boutiques that it will still be around a few years from now. Richemont would be wise not to remain silent for too long as the more time passes, the more Farfetch’s share price plummets and its cost of capital rises as people grow concerned about its financial situation and the noose tightens around Neves’ neck.

FT : Israel-Hamas war unleashes wave of antisemitism in Europe

Israel-Hamas war unleashes wave of antisemitism in Europe
Jews on the continent fear they could become a target of Muslim anger

Over the past week, Jews living in Germany’s capital Berlin have been waking up to a chilling sight — Stars of David sprayed on the front doors of their apartment blocks.

Police say there have been just three such incidents. But for many, they are a painful echo of the 1930s, when Nazi stormtroopers marked out Jewish-owned businesses and urged the public to shop elsewhere.

The graffiti reflects a big uptick in threats and insults directed at Jews in Germany in the wake of Hamas’s October 7 terror attack, when gunmen killed more than 1,400 Israeli civilians and soldiers and kidnapped dozens more. Palestinian activists celebrated the attack by handing out sweets on the streets of Berlin.

Felix Klein, government commissioner for Jewish life in Germany, said the country’s Jews had been “appalled by the antisemitism on display from Muslim groups and hard-left organisations”.

Such inter-ethnic tensions may get worse as the violence ratchets up. Israel has told 1.1mn residents in the north of Gaza to leave their homes ahead of an expected full-scale ground invasion, while Israeli forces continue their bombardment of the densely populated strip. Palestinian health officials say more than 2,300 people — many of them women and children — have been killed in the enclave since the bombing began.

As the conflict deepens, Jews across Europe fear they could become a convenient target of Muslim anger over Israel’s military operation in Gaza.

Tensions are running particularly high in France, home to a large Muslim population and the biggest Jewish community after Israel and the US. Flare-ups in the Middle East conflict have frequently triggered a rise in antisemitic incidents.

On Saturday, French interior minister Gérald Darmanin said there had been 189 threats and 65 arrests for antisemitic remarks or acts in France since the upsurge in violence in Israel and Gaza. Pharos, an online platform that allows people to report hate speech, has been alerted 2,449 times.

“Most of the incidents are graffiti of swastikas or slogans like death to the Jews, and calls for [Palestinian uprising],” Darmanin told France Inter radio on Thursday. “And then more serious actions, like people arrested at schools or synagogues with weapons, or a drone flown over a Jewish cultural centre.”

In Sarcelles, a northern suburb of Paris with a large Jewish community, rabbi René Taieb said many Jewish parents had kept their children away from school on Friday, in response to a big increase in antisemitic threats on social media.

“In certain schools in Val-d’Oise [a department north-west of Sarcelles], out of 600 students, not even 60 showed up,” said Taieb, who leads a 40,000-strong Jewish community in the region. “The teachers themselves did not want to bring their children to school.”

That fear will have intensified after a man killed a teacher in a knife attack at a school in northern France on Friday, in an incident that President Emmanuel Macron said showed the “barbarism of Islamist terror”.

Although the attack has not been identified as antisemitic, Jewish leaders in France and government officials have made a connection with the conflict in Israel and the Palestinian territories.

“According to our intelligence, there is a link unfortunately between what has happened in the Middle East and this act,” Darmanin said. “We see it because there have been despicable calls to take action.”

Robert Ejnes, executive director of Crif, the council of Jewish associations in France, said all past escalations in the Arab-Israeli conflict tended to have repercussions for Jews in Europe, even though there was often no clear logic behind the attacks.

“I find it difficult to find the link between support for the Palestinians and attacks on synagogues,” he said. Instead of attacking Israelis, supporters of the Palestinian cause were turning “against French Jews”.

In the UK, the Metropolitan Police said that between September 29 and October 12 there had been 75 reports of antisemitic offences, up from 12 in the same period in 2022. Incidents reported to police increased sevenfold year on year, from 14 to 105. Three Jewish schools in north London closed temporarily for security reasons.

Anxiety is also running high in Italy’s Jewish community. Public places have been defaced by antisemitic graffiti, including swastikas and slogans praising Hamas. The words “Jewish murderers — in the oven” were scrawled on the walls of a hospital in Milan.

Ruth Dureghello, a former president of Rome’s Jewish community, said she feared the situation could deteriorate as Israel intensified its military response to the Hamas attacks.

“In the beginning, all the world was with Israel — there was no way to be on the other side,” she said, adding that the perspective is “already changing”.

Across Europe, authorities stepped up security at synagogues, Jewish schools and other institutions.

Darmanin said the French government would “deploy the financial and human resources as long as necessary to help reassure Jewish people in France”.

The French government has also banned all pro-Palestinian protests amid concerns they could “disturb public order”. Despite the ban, large crowds gathered in Paris on Thursday, some chanting “Israel murderers” and “Macron — accomplice”. The protesters were dispersed by police using tear gas.

Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, called for a ban on Samidoun, a “solidarity network” for Palestinian prisoners that organised the celebrations in Berlin after the Hamas attack. Authorities in Berlin have banned pro-Palestinian protests, a move that some rights groups have condemned as an infringement of free speech.

Anti-Israel sentiment in Germany has been most conspicuous in schools, especially in cities with large Muslim populations such as Berlin. Klein said some children were coming to lessons draped in Palestinian flags and spraying anti-Zionist graffiti on the walls. Those who spoke up for Israel “often experience hostility and pressure” from fellow pupils.

But he said what was most worrying was the profile of the people behind the pro-Hamas protests and celebrations. These were not Syrians and Iraqis who arrived as part of the big refugee influx of 2015-16 but “families who’ve lived here a long time and have German passports”.

“It shows we now have parallel societies emerging here in Germany and integration has, in some respects, failed,” he said.

Wired : The 40 Best Movies on Netflix This Week

The 40 Best Movies on Netflix This Week
From The Pale Blue Eye to El Conde, here are our picks for the best streaming titles to feast your eyes on.
NETFLIX HAS PLENTY of movies to watch, but it’s a real mixed bag. Sometimes finding the right film at the right time can seem like an impossible task. Fret not, we’re here to help. Below is a list of some of our favorites currently on the streaming service—from dramas to comedies to thrillers.
If you decide you’re in more of a TV mood, head over to our collection of the best TV series on Netflix. Want more? Check out our lists of the best sci-fi movies, best movies on Amazon Prime, and the best flicks on Disney+.


El Conde

This is a wild one—a Chilean black comedy satire reimagining dictator Augusto Pinochet as a centuries-old vampire who is just done with it and now craves his own final death. Not bizarre enough? As director and co-writer Pablo Larraín's farce continues, it incorporates Vampire Pinochet's children, the exorcist nun they hire to kill their father for the inheritance, a Russian vampire butler, and—in a gloriously deranged twist—Margaret Thatcher. Shot in black and white, and almost entirely in Spanish, El Conde sits somewhere in the space between high schlock and high art. It's absolutely not going to win everyone over, but if you're craving something different from cinema's norms, you can't get much more different than this.

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Ignore its 41-minute runtime and set aside any arguments over whether its brevity "counts" as a movie—this fantastic outing sees Wes Anderson adapt a Roald Dahl work for the first time since 2009's Fantastic Mr. Fox, and the result is just as brilliant. Rather than stop-motion, as with Mr. Fox, this is a live-action affair headlined by a top tier performance from Benedict Cumberbatch as the eponymous Henry Sugar, a bored rich man who gains a strange power and ultimately uses it to better the world. With a broader cast including Dev Patel, Ralph Fiennes, and Ben Kingsley, and shot with all of Anderson's trademark aesthetic sensibilities, this really is a wonderful story. And, if you're still bothered by the short run time, take solace in the fact that this forms a tetraptych with The Rat Catcher, The Swan, and Poison; 15-minute shorts with same cast, directed by Anderson, and all adapting other Dahl tales in his signature style.

Apostle

After bringing Indonesian martial arts to the wider world with his The Raid duology, director Gareth Evans switches genre to horror with this disturbing period piece set on a remote Welsh island in the early 1900s. Dan Stevens plays Thomas Richardson, a faithless missionary who infiltrates a cult on the island to rescue his kidnapped sister. Entwined in the lives and strange practices of the cultists and their firebrand leader, Malcolm Howe (Michael Sheen), Thomas soon realizes the god being worshipped isn't the one from his own lost scripture. Yes, it's all a bit Wicker Man in places, but Apostle balances its gore and scares with slow-burn tension and a terror borne of its isolated setting that will have you thinking twice before you next venture into the countryside.

You Are So Not Invited to My Bat Mitzvah

We're glossing over the "nepo baby" factor here—producer Adam Sandler takes a backseat supporting actor role here, allowing his two real-life daughters the spotlight—as this earns a pass by being a great teen comedy on its own merits. Stacy Friedman (Sunny Sandler) is obsessing over her upcoming bat mitzvah, insisting that it has to be perfect to set the course for the rest of her life, while older sister Ronnie (Sadie Sandler) provides backup in trying to convince their parents to throw a lavish party. Unfortunately, Stacy's current life is far from perfect, chasing both acceptance from the popular kids at school and the affections of clueless Andy (Dylan Hoffman), who barely notices her. After an attempt to impress him leads to social disaster, Stacy is enraged when BFF Lydia (Samantha Lorraine) dates him instead, and soon everyone's lives are spiraling out of control in the kind of deranged, cruel ways only teenagers can manage. Director Sammi Cohen perfectly captures the heightened melodrama that paints everyone's teen years, while delivering emotional moments at all the right points.

Eldorado: Everything The Nazis Hate

Centered on the eponymous Berlin nightclub, this documentary explores the lives of LGBTQ+ people during the interwar years, from the roaring 1920s through the rise of the Nazis and into the horrors of World War II. With a blend of archival footage, recreations, and first-person accounts, director Benjamin Cantu paints a picture of gleeful decadence, the Eldorado as an almost hallowed ground where performers and patrons alike experimented with gender expression and were free to openly display their sexuality. It's an ode to what was lost, but with an eye on the bizarre contradictions of the age, where openly gay club-goers would wear their own Nazi uniforms as the years went by. Everything the Nazis Hate is emotionally challenging viewing in places, but it serves up an important slice of queer history that many will be completely unaware of.

The Pale Blue Eye

Based on the novel of the same name by Louis Bayard, this historical mystery is set in 1890, with retired detective Augustus Landor (Christian Bale) called in to investigate the death and mutilation of a cadet at West Point Military Academy. Needing an insider's perspective, Landor enlists the help of another cadet: a macabre young fellow named Edgar Allan Poe (an exquisitely creepy Harry Melling). As their inquiries continue, the unlikely pair uncover links to strange rituals and secret societies, while the body count rises. Beautifully gothic and with plenty of twists, The Pale Blue Eye is bolstered by a fantastic ensemble including Gillian Anderson, Charlotte Gainsbourg, Toby Jones, and Timothy Spall, all elevating what could be a silly genre mashup ("Young Poe: The Detective Years," anyone?) into a captivating, spooky affair.

The Fear Street Trilogy

Spread over three time periods—1994, 1978, and 1666—the Fear Street trilogy is one of the most clever horror releases in Netflix’s catalog. The first installment introduces viewers to the cursed town of Shadyside, where a string of bloody killings has labeled it the murder capital of America. Soon, a group of genre-typical teens are drawn into a horrific legacy dating back to the 17th century, dodging serial killers, summer camp slayings, and vengeful witches along the way. The trilogy, originally released over the course of three weeks, emphasizing its connected nature, transcends its origins as a series of teen-lit novels by Goosebumps creator R. L. Stine, with lashings of gore and a tone drawing on '80s slasher flicks that delivers some genuine scares over the three films. Director Leigh Janiak masterfully walks a tightrope between lampooning and paying homage to horror classics—it’s impossible to miss contrasts to the likes of Scream, Halloween, and even Stranger Things—but it’s all done with such love for the form that Fear Street has established itself as a Halloween staple. It’s a bit too self-aware in places, but definitely one for the shouldn’t-be-as-good-as-it-is pile.

Oxygen

A woman wakes up in a cryonics cell after a few weeks in suspended animation. She doesn’t remember her name, age, or past except for a few disturbing flashbacks. But one thing she knows—courtesy of an annoying talking AI—is that she has just over an hour before she runs out of oxygen. Can she get out of the coffin-shaped chamber quickly enough? Oxygen is as claustrophobic a thriller as it gets, and manages to find that rare sweet spot of being static and unnerving at once. The actors’ strong performances help the film win the day, despite a ludicrously far-fetched ending.

Marry My Dead Body

Wu Ming-han (Greg Hsu) is not a great guy. A homophobic police officer, his life—and prejudices—are changed when he picks up an unassuming red envelope while investigating a case. Now bound under “ghost marriage” customs to Mao Mao (Austin Lin), a gay man who died under mysterious circumstances, Wu has to solve his “husband's” death before he can get on with his life. Directed by Cheng Wei-hao, better known for his thrillers and horror movies, Marry My Dead Body sees the Taiwanese director bring his supernatural stylings to this ghostly absurdist comedy for a film that transcends borders.

Words Bubble Up Like Soda Pop

Cherry struggles with speaking to other people, preferring to share his feelings through haiku. Smile is a vlogger who always wears a mask, afraid to reveal her braces to the world. Both young people are terrible at communicating, until a chaotic meeting at a mall draws them together, and they begin to bring each other out of their shells. This feature directorial debut from Kyōhei Ishiguro (Your Lie in April) is a charming slice-of-life romcom that transcends its teen romance trappings. Its gorgeous animation, stunning color palette, and eye-catching pop art aesthetic are further bolstered by a genius soundtrack that blends Cherry’s haiku with hip hop influences. True to its title, Words Bubble Up Like Soda Pop is an effervescent, joyful affair that will bring a smile to the face of even the most jaded viewer.

Someone Great

A breakup movie that is really about the joy of female friendship and the pain of growing old, Someone Great is powered by three great performances from Gina Rodriguez, Brittany Snow, and DeWanda Wise. Rodriguez stars as Jenny, a journalist who simultaneously lands her dream job in San Francisco and breaks up with her boyfriend of nine years. To lift her out of her gloom, Jenny enlists her two best friends for one last adventure in New York City. Although the film sets itself up as a series of comic capers (like Superbad or Dazed and Confused), it really finds its heart in the relationship between the three leads and their mutual support as they attempt to muddle through life—it's like picking up with the cast of Booksmart and finding out they've really gotten into drugs in the intervening 13 years.

Zom 100: Bucket List of the Dead

How much does Akira Tendo (Eiji Akaso) hate his soul-crushing, meaningless, abusive office job? Put it this way: He considers the zombie apocalypse an improvement. Freed from the shackles of workaday monotony, Akira and a handful of fellow survivors are now free to do everything they ever wanted—so long as they can avoid becoming undead flesh-eaters themselves. Adapted from the manga by Haro Aso (creator of Alice in Borderland) and Kotaro Takata, this raucous zom-com is packed with gloriously stupid moments—zombie shark fight!—but with a central theme of learning how to truly live for yourself, it has plenty of heart too.

They Cloned Tyrone

Drug dealer Fontaine (John Boyega) got shot to death last night. So why has he just woken up in bed as if nothing happened? That existential question leads Fontaine and two unlikely allies—prostitute Yo-Yo (Teyonah Parris) and pimp Slick Charles (Jamie Foxx)—to uncovering a vast conspiracy centered on a Black-majority town called The Glen, where people are kept mollified by hypnotic rap music, dumbed down with drug-laced fried chicken and grape juice, and preached into obedience at church. But who’s using the town as a petri dish, and why is there a cloning lab buried underground? This lethally sharp satire from writer and debut director Juel Taylor masterfully blends genres, from the use of visual motifs and dated clichés from 1970s Blaxploitation cinema to its frequent steps into sci-fi territory and laugh-out-loud comedy. But it’s the powerhouse performances from its central cast that mark this as one to watch.

The Raid

Rama (Iko Uwais) is a rookie officer in Indonesia’s Brimob—think SWAT—and he’s about to have a very bad day. As part of a 20-man squad set to raid an apartment building controlled by criminal kingpin Tama (Ray Sahetapy), Rama and his colleagues have to fight through floor after floor—but Tama controls the tower’s power and has a legion of hardened criminals at his disposal, making every step a fierce struggle. With its groundbreaking (not to mention bone-breaking) fight choreography, stunning stunt work, and phenomenal cinematography, director Gareth Evans’ ferocious action epic set a new standard for the genre back in 2011. More than a decade later, it’s as fresh and exciting as ever—catch it before the remake.

Matilda the Musical

The classic family fable returns to the screen, via the Broadway and West End stages, in this musical update. You know the story—precocious schoolgirl Matilda (Alisha Weir) uses her newfound telekinetic powers to outwit the sadistic school principal Agatha Trunchbull (a deliciously wicked Emma Thompson) with only the kindhearted Miss Honey (Lashana Lynch) on her side—but here it's bolstered with toe-tapping numbers from Tim Minchin and some phenomenal choreography. With an appropriately dark sense of humor throughout, channeling the mischievous spirit of the source material, this new Matilda will charm a whole new generation of delinquents.

Nimona

Shapeshifter Nimona can become anything she wants, a gift that causes people to fear and shun her. If society is going to treat her like a villain, she's going to be one, so she decides to become the sidekick of the hated black knight, Ballister Blackheart. Unfortunately for the aspiring menace, Blackheart isn't quite the monster he's made out to be, and he instead tries to rein in Nimona's more murderous tendencies as he seeks to clear his name of a crime he didn't commit—and face down his old friend Ambrosius Goldenloin in the process. Adapted from N. D. Stevenson's groundbreaking graphic novel, Nimona is more than just another fanciful fantasy—it's a tale of outsiders and exiles, people trying to do right even when their community rejects them, and the joy of finding their own little band along the way. After an almost decade-long journey to the screen, this dazzlingly animated movie has become an instant classic.

Pray Away

An exploration of the origins of the “conversion therapy” movement—a harmful and medically denounced process through which religious groups try to “cure” homosexuality—may not make for light entertainment, but this searing look at the practice and its roots is darkly compelling. Director Kristine Stolakis speaks with key founders of the movement and survivors of the often brutal treatments that arose over nearly half a century and offers insight into both. Pray Away is a difficult watch at times—especially for LGBTQ+ viewers—but it shines an important light on the movement and the damage it causes. A bold debut for Stolakis.

The Boys in the Band

Set in New York City in 1968, The Boys in the Band is a snapshot of gay life a year before Stonewall brought LGBTQ+ rights to mainstream attention. When Michael (Jim Parsons, fresh from The Big Bang Theory) hosts a birthday party for his best frenemy Harold (Zachary Quinto), he’s expecting a night of drinks, dancing, and gossip with their inner circle—until Alan, Michael’s straight friend from college, turns up, desperate to share something. As the night wears on, personalities clash, tempers fray, and secrets threaten to come to the surface in director Joe Mantello’s tense character study. Adapted for the screen by Mart Crowley, author of the original stage play, this period piece manages to be as poignant an exploration of queer relationships and identities as ever.

The Trial of the Chicago 7

If you’re not an American boomer, the juxtaposition of the city of Chicago and the number 7 might mean little to you, but the formula stands for one of the causes célèbres of the ’60s. As anti-war, civil rights, and hippie activists involved in the protests at the 1968 Democratic Convention in Chicago, the Seven (theoretically eight) were picked as convenient scapegoats after the unrest was crushed at the behest of Mayor Richard Daley. The trial happened at the very end of Lyndon B. Johnson’s presidency—with the US reeling from the assassinations of John F. Kennedy and Martin Luther King Jr and Vietnam still devouring thousands of young people—and it came to encapsulate the tensions tearing the country’s social fabric asunder. Director Aaron Sorkin takes a lot of liberties with historical facts (and leaves out some hilarious bits, like poet Allen Ginsberg’s testimony, which would have made for a showstopper), but The Trial of the Chicago 7 largely succeeds in conveying the sense of generational score-settling the court battle came to signify.

Zombieland

Zombie movies often take themselves too seriously—but “serious” isn’t something the Zombieland franchise can be accused of. Released in 2009, Zombieland reenergized the horror-comedy genre with a loose-knit group of survivors—college student Columbus (Jesse Eisenberg), talented zombie slayer Tallahassee (Woody Harrelson), and supersmart sisters Wichita and Little Rock (Emma Stone and Abigail Breslin)—searching for sanctuary from the undead. Rhett Reese and Paul Wernick’s wry and self-aware script plays gleefully with the constraints of the zombie apocalypse, wringing laughs from Columbus’ narrated survival rules and Tallahassee’s obsession with Twinkies. But it’s an incredible cameo by Bill Murray as himself that elevates the whole film. Clever, funny, and just the right level of gory, Zombieland is a blast.

For the Love of Spock

Directed by Leonard Nimoy's son Adam Nimoy, this looks at the life and career of the famed Star Trek actor and the pop cultural impact of his role as the highly logical science officer of the USS Enterprise. The documentary merges classic on-set and behind-the-scenes footage with interviews from Nimoy’s original Trek castmates, as well as actors and creators influenced by him—including Zachary Quinto, who played a younger Spock in the rebooted movie series—and even personal family photos, for an in-depth look at Nimoy’s career. Despite having begun as a Star Trek anniversary project, For the Love of Spock evolves into a celebration of Nimoy's life beyond the bridge of a famous spaceship. It's not just fan service for Star Trek fans—this also examines the sometimes rocky relationship between the elder Nimoy and his son, making for an even more personal and sometimes difficult viewing experience for those who are only familiar with Spock the character, rather than Nimoy the man.

Kill Boksoon

To her friends, Gil Bok-soon (Jeon Do-yeon) is a successful events executive and dedicated single mother to her daughter, Jae-yeong (Kim Si-a). In reality, she’s the star performer at MK Ent—an assassination bureau, where her almost superhuman ability to predict every step in a critical situation has earned her a 100 percent success rate and killer reputation. The only problem: She’s considering retiring at the end of her contract, a decision that opens her to threats from disgruntled enemies and ambitious colleagues alike. While its title and premise not-so-subtly evoke Tarantino's Kill Bill, director Byun Sung-hyun takes this Korean action epic to giddy heights with some of the most impressive fights committed to screen since, well, Kill Bill.

Okja

Before winning Oscars and cementing his name in the Hollywood firmament for Parasite, Bong Joon-ho had something of a sideline in creature features. While 2006’s The Host remains worth hunting down, this 2017 saga of genetic engineering and animal exploitation may be the director’s best foray into the genre. After helping raise an enhanced “super pig” in rural South Korea, young Mija (Ahn Seo-hyun) is distraught when the American company behind its creation, Mirando, comes to take it back. Falling in with a group of Animal Liberation Front activists, Mija travels to Mirando’s headquarters in New York in a desperate effort to rescue her unlikely animal friend. Darkly satirical in places, Okja manages to explore themes of animal exploitation and environmental conservation without feeling preachy.

Cargo

In a world already ravaged by a zombie-like plague, Andy Rose (Martin Freeman) only wants to keep his family safe, sticking to Australia’s rural back roads to avoid infection. After his wife is tragically bitten, and infects him in turn, Andy is desperate to find a safe haven for his infant daughter, Rosie. With a mere 48 hours until he succumbs himself, Andy finds an ally in Thoomi (Simone Landers), an Aboriginal girl looking to protect her own rabid father. But with threats from paranoid survivalists and Aboriginal communities hunting the infected, it may already be too late. A unique twist on the zombie apocalypse, Cargo abandons the familiar urban landscapes of the genre for the breathtaking wilds of Australia and offers a slower, character-led approach to the end of the world.

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

The modern master of the macabre brings the wooden would-be boy to life like never before in this exquisitely animated take on Pinocchio. In a stop-motion masterpiece that hews closer to the original 1880s tale by Carlo Collodi than the sanitized Disney version, Guillermo del Toro adds his own signature touch and compelling twists to the classic story that make it darkly enchanting—expect a Blue Fairy closer to a biblically accurate many-eyed angel and a Terrible Dogfish more like a kaiju. It’s the decision to transplant the tale to World War II that’s most affecting though. Cast against the rise of fascism, with Gepetto mourning the loss of his son, the film is packed with complex themes of mortality and morality that will haunt audiences long after the credits roll. If that doesn't sell you, perhaps the fact that it won Best Animated Feature at the 2023 Academy Awards will.

The Land of Steady Habits

Anders Hill (Ben Mendelsohn) thought he wanted a change from his stifling life in a wealthy suburb of Connecticut. Now rashly divorced from Helene (Edie Falco), the woman he still loves; regretting his decision to retire early; and struggling with his adult son Preston’s (Thomas Mann) battles with drug addiction, Anders is spiraling. The Land of Steady Habits could be another maudlin look at a rich man’s midlife crisis, but writer and director Nicole Holofcener—adapting Ted Thompson’s novel of the same name—keeps the lead on the hook for his own downfall while infusing Anders’ journey with dark humor and a strange warmth.

Call Me Chihiro

An idyllic slice-of-life movie with a twist, Call Me Chihiro follows a former sex worker—the eponymous Chihiro, played by Kasumi Arimura—after she moves to a seaside town to work in a bento restaurant. This isn’t a tale of a woman on the run or trying to escape her past—Chihiro is refreshingly forthright and unapologetic, and her warmth and openness soon begin to change the lives of her neighbors. Directed by Rikiya Imaizumi, this is an intimate, heartfelt character drama that alternates between moments of aching loneliness and sheer joy, packed with emotional beats that remind viewers of the importance of even the smallest connections.

The Sea Beast

It's easy to imagine that the elevator pitch for The Sea Beast was “Moby Dick meets How to Train Your Dragon”—and who wouldn’t be compelled by that? Set in a fantasy world where oceanic leviathans terrorize humanity, those who hunt down the giant monsters are lauded as heroes. Jacob Holland (voiced by Karl Urban) is one such hero, adopted son of the legendary Captain Crowe and well on the way to building his own legacy as a monster hunter—a journey disrupted by stowaway Maisie Brumble (Zaris-Angel Hator), who has her own ambitions to take on the sea beasts. However, after an attempt to destroy the colossal Red Bluster goes disastrously wrong, Jacob and Maisie are stranded on an island filled with the creatures, and they find that the monsters may not be quite so monstrous after all. A rollicking sea-bound adventure directed by Chris Williams—of Big Hero 6 and Moana fame—it secured its standing as one of Netflix’s finest movies with a nomination for Best Animated Feature at this year's Oscars.

Troll

This gleefully entertaining giant-monster movie eschews tearing up the likes of New York or Tokyo in favor of director Roar Uthaug’s (Tomb Raider 2018) native Norway, with a titanic troll stomping its way toward Oslo after being roused by a drilling operation. The plot and characters will be familiar to any fan of kaiju cinema—Ine Marie Wilmann heads up the cast as Nora Tidemann, the academic with a curiously specific skill set who is called in to advise on the crisis, while Kim Falck fits neatly into the role of Andreas Isaksan, the government adviser paired with her, and Gard B. Eidsvold serves as Tobias Tidemann, the former professor chased out of academia for his crazy theories about trolls. But the striking Nordic visuals and the titular menace’s ability to blend in with the landscape allow for some impressively original twists along the way. Although Troll could have easily descended into parody, Uthaug steers clear of smug self-awareness and instead delivers one of the most original takes on the genre in years.

White Noise

The latest from director Noah Baumbach has him reteaming with his Marriage Story lead Adam Driver for another quirky look at disintegrating families and interpersonal angst—albeit with an apocalyptic twist. Driver stars as Jack Gladney, a college professor faking his way through a subject he’s unable to teach and struggling to work out family life with his fourth wife, Babette (Greta Gerwig), and their four kids from previous relationships. Neurotic familial squabbles prove the least of their worries when an “airborne toxic event” hits their town, sending everyone scrambling for cover with exponentially disastrous results. While the contemporary Covid-19 parallels are none too subtle, keeping the 1980s setting of Don DeLillo’s original novel proves an inspired choice on Baumbach’s part, one that accentuates the film’s darkly absurd comedy. By setting a rush for survival amidst big hair and materialist excess, White Noise serves up some authentic moments of human drama amid the chaos.

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Daniel Craig reprises his role as detective Benoit Blanc in this brilliant follow-up to 2019’s phenomenal whodunnit, Knives Out. Writer-director Rian Johnson crafts a fiendishly sharp new case for “the Last of the Gentlemen Sleuths,” taking Blanc to a Greek island getaway for a reclusive tech billionaire and his collection of friends and hangers-on, where a planned murder mystery weekend takes a deadly turn. While totally accessible for newcomers, fans of the first film will also be rewarded with some deeper character development for Blanc, a role that’s shaping up to be as iconic for Craig as 007. As cleverly written and meticulously constructed as its predecessor, and featuring the kind of all-star cast—Edward Norton! Janelle Monáe! Kathryn Hahn! Leslie Odom Jr.! Jessica Henwick! Madelyn Cline! Kate Hudson! Dave Bautista!—that cinema dreams are made of, Glass Onion might be the best thing Netflix has dropped all year.

The Wonder

Florence Pugh dazzles in this not-quite-horror film from Oscar-winning director Sebastián Lelio. Set in 1862, English nurse Lib Wright (Pugh) is sent to Ireland to observe Anna O’Donnell, a girl who claims to have not eaten in four months, subsisting instead on “manna from heaven.” Still grieving the loss of her own child, Lib is torn between investigating the medical impossibility and growing concern for Anna herself. Amid obstacles in the form of Anna’s deeply religious family and a local community that distrusts her, Lib’s watch descends into a tense, terrifying experience. Based on a book of the same name by Emma Donoghue, The Wonder is a beautiful yet bleakly shot period piece that explores the all-too-mortal horrors that unquestioning religious fervor and family secrets can wreak.

Drifting Home

Kosuke and Natsume are childhood friends whose relationship has grown strained as they approach their teenage years. When the apartment complex where they first met is scheduled for demolition, they sneak in one last time, seeking emotional closure. Instead, they and the friends who joined them are trapped by torrential rain. After the mysterious storm passes, the world is changed, with the entire building floating on an ethereal sea, and a new child in their midst.

Adolescent feelings and magical realism collide in this sumptuously animated movie from the makers of A Whisker Away (also available on Netflix and well worth your time). Director Hiroyasa Ishida (Penguin Highway) may not be up there with the likes of Hayao Miyazaki in terms of name recognition in the West, but Drifting Home should put him on your radar.

All Quiet on the Western Front

Hopped up on nationalism and dreams of battlefield glory, Paul Bäumer (Felix Kammerer) is an eager young recruit for the German army during the last year of the First World War. His romantic view of the conflict is shattered on his first night in the cold trenches, surrounded by death and disaster, and dealt a tragic blow with the meaningless loss of a dear friend. It's all downhill from there in this magnificently crafted adaptation of Erich Maria Remarque's groundbreaking novel, one of the most important pieces of anti-war literature of the 20th century. Paul's journey is one of naivete crushed by the relentless machinery of war and state and an awakening to the way soldiers are chewed up in the name of politicians and generals. Director Edward Berger's take on the material is the first to be filmed in German, which adds a layer of authenticity to a blistering, heart-rending cinematic effort that drives home the horror and inhumanity of war. Often bleak, it is an undeniably brilliant piece of filmmaking.

Enola Holmes 2

The original Enola Holmes (2020) proved a surprisingly enjoyable twist on the world's most famous detective, focusing instead on his overlooked sister, Enola. No surprise, then, that this follow-up is just as exciting a romp through Victorian London. Despite having proved her skills in the first film, Enola struggles to establish her own detective credentials until a missing-person report leads her to a case that has stumped even Sherlock and pushes her into the path of his archnemesis, Moriarty. Snappy action, clever twists, and bristling sibling rivalry from Stranger Things' Millie Bobby Brown and The Witcher's Henry Cavill as the Holmes siblings make for fun, family-friendly viewing. It even crams in a touch of vague historical accuracy by making the 1888 match girls' strike a key part of Enola's latest adventure.

RRR

One of India’s biggest films of all time, RRR (or Rise, Roar, Revolt) redefines the notion of cinematic spectacle. Set in 1920, the historical epic follows real-life Indian revolutionaries Alluri Sitrama Raju (Ram Charan) and Komaram Bheem (N. T. Rama Rao Jr.) but fictionalizes their lives and actions. Although they come from very different walks of life, their similarities draw them together as they face down sadistic governor Scott Buxton (Ray Stevenson) and his cruel wife, Catherine (Alison Doody). No mere period fluff, RRR is a bold, exciting, and often explosive piece of filmmaking that elevates its heroes to near-mythological status. Director S. S. Rajamouli deploys brilliantly shot action scenes—and an exquisitely choreographed dance number—that grab viewers’ attention and refuse to let go. Whether you’re a longtime fan of Indian cinema or just looking for an action flick beyond the Hollywood norm, RRR is not to be missed.

I Lost My Body

An award winner at Cannes in 2019, this tale of burgeoning young love, obsession, and autonomous body parts is every bit as weird as you might expect for a French adult animated film. Director Jérémy Clapin charts the life of Naoufel, a Moroccan immigrant in modern-day France who falls for the distant Gabrielle, and Naoufel’s severed hand, which makes its way across the city to try to reconnect. With intersecting timelines and complex discussions about fate, I Lost My Body is often mind-bending yet always captivating, and Clapin employs brilliantly detailed animation and phenomenal color choices throughout. Worth watching in both the original French and the solid English dub featuring Dev Patel and Alia Shawkat, this one dares you to make sense of it all.

The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Aspiring filmmaker Katie Mitchell (voiced by Abbi Jacobson) has a strained relationship with her technophobic father Rick (Danny McBride)—not helped by his accidentally destroying her laptop right as she’s about to begin film school in California. In an effort to salvage their relationship, Rick decides to take the entire Mitchell family on a cross-country road trip to see Katie off. Unfortunately, this road trip coincides with a robot uprising that the Mitchells escape only by chance, leaving the fate of the world in their hands. Beautifully animated and brilliantly written, The Mitchells vs. the Machines takes a slightly more mature approach to family dynamics than many of its genre-mates, with the college-age Katie searching for her own identity while addressing genuine grievances with her father, but it effortlessly balances the more serious elements with exquisite action and genuinely funny comedy. Robbed of a full cinematic release by Covid-19, it now shines as one of Netflix’s best films.

Don’t Look Up

Frustrated by the world’s collective inaction on existential threats like climate change? Maybe don’t watch Don’t Look Up, director Adam McKay’s satirical black comedy. When two low-level astronomers discover a planet-killing comet on a collision course with Earth, they try to warn the authorities—only to be met with a collective “meh.” Matters only get worse when they attempt to leak the news themselves and have to navigate vapid TV hosts, celebrities looking for a signature cause, and an indifferent public. A bleakly funny indictment of our times, bolstered by a star-studded cast fronted by Leonardo DiCaprio and Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up is, somewhat depressingly, one of the best portraits of humanity since Idiocracy.

Dolemite Is My Name

After the credits roll on Dolemite Is My Name, we guarantee you'll be 10,000 times more likely to go out and stage a horndog nude photo shoot for your next cult comedy record. The only person having anywhere near as much fun as Eddie Murphy, playing real-life club comedian/singer Rudy Ray Moore, is Wesley Snipes, goofing around as the actor-director D'Urvill Martin. With the help of a madcap crew, they make a truly terrible 1975 Blaxploitation kung fu movie based on Moore's pimp alter ego, Dolemite. A brash showbiz movie with a heart of gold, it has shades of The Disaster Artist and music legend biopics. Yet with the cast flexing in Ruth Carter's glorious costumes—the suits!—and a couple of triumphant sex and shoot-out scenes, it's a wild ride, whether you know the original story or not.

WSJ : A Recession Is No Longer the Consensus

A Recession Is No Longer the Consensus
In WSJ survey, economists lower recession probability below 50% and say Fed is finished raising interest rates

Economists are turning optimistic on the U.S. economy. They now think it will skirt a recession, the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates and inflation will continue to ease.

In the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, business and academic economists lowered the probability of a recession within the next year, from 54% on average in July to a more optimistic 48%. That is the first time they have put the probability below 50% since the middle of last year.

The median probability was 50%, in effect a coin flip.

“The probability of recession continues to recede in the U.S. as the banking turmoil subsides and strong labor market resilience and rising real incomes support consumer demand,” BMO economists Doug Porter and Scott Anderson said in the survey.

Fueling the optimism are three key factors: inflation continuing to decline, a Federal Reserve that is done raising interest rates, and a robust labor market and economic growth that have outperformed expectations.

Economists on average expect gross domestic product, the value of all the goods and services produced in the country adjusted for inflation, to increase 2.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023 from a year earlier. That is a sharp upward revision from the average 1% growth forecast in the last survey.

Economists trimmed their forecast for next year, to 1% from 1.3% in the July survey, but expect the economy to keep growing in 2024 and 2025 and the unemployment rate to rise but hover just above 4%—a historically low level.

Economic growth and job creation are expected to be weak in the first half of 2024. Economists predict GDP will increase at an anemic 0.35% annual rate in the first quarter and 0.6% in the second. They expect employers will add 42,500 new jobs a month on average in the first quarter and 16,700 new jobs in the second, a sharp slowdown from the expected 138,800 a month in the final quarter of this year as businesses feel the pinch from high interest rates.

Nearly 60% of economists said the Fed is done raising rates in its current cycle of interest-rate increases, after lifting short-term borrowing costs to a 22-year high in July of 5.25% to 5.5%. About 23% expect the final increase to come in November and 11% in December.

Roughly half of economists expect the Fed will start cutting rates in the second quarter of next year as economic growth cools, and the unemployment rate—which was 3.8% in September—rises to 4.3% by June.

Still, taken together, the latest forecasts suggest confidence in the Fed’s ability to achieve a so-called soft landing, in which inflation falls without a recession. An overwhelming 82% of economists said the Fed’s current interest-rate target range of 5.25% to 5.5% is restrictive enough to bring inflation back to the Fed’s 2% goal over the next two or three years.

Economists expect inflation as measured by the consumer-price index, which was 3.7% in September, to tick down to 2.4% by the end of next year and 2.2% by the end of 2025.

“Over the past several months, the case for a soft landing has undeniably strengthened,” said Deutsche Bank economists Brett Ryan and Matthew Luzzetti in the survey. “However, headwinds such as depleted savings, tightening credit conditions, slowing income growth and return of student debt payments will weigh more appreciably over the next year,” they added.

Economists give Fed Chair Jerome Powell relatively good grades for his handling of monetary policy. Nearly half gave him a solid B, while 20% gave him an A, and 20% a C. Their main criticism was Powell’s view that inflation would prove transitory in 2021, and as a result the Fed’s slow start to increasing borrowing costs.

The economic picture isn’t all rosy. Economists warned in the survey that recent developments could cast shadows on the U.S. economy’s prospects in the coming months, such as the impact of the conflict between Israel and Hamas on energy prices.

Some 81% of economists also said the recent run-up in bond yields to their highest levels since 2007 increased the probability of a recession, though not by enough to offset other factors making such a downturn less likely.

Economists also expect yields will ease in the coming months. On average, they expect the 10-year Treasury yield to close at 4.47% at the end of this year, and fall to 4.16% by June 30 of next year. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.63% on Friday, down from 4.783% a week earlier.

The survey of 65 economists was conducted Oct. 6-11. Not every economist answered every question.

>>> Barron’s Weekend Summary

Barron’s Weekend Summary: The new wave of US chip manufacturing reflects a paradoxical new reality
Sat, 14 Oct 2023 13:00 PM EST

Cover:
-The new wave of US chip manufacturing reflects a paradoxical new reality: Geopolitics are colliding with economics, and what’s good for one is pressuring the other, says Barron’s. The example they cite is Apple. Your next iPhone won’t be stamped Made in America. But pry open the casing in 2025 and you may see semiconductor chips that were etched into silicon in the Arizona desert. That’s because Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing plowing $40B into the project, aiming to crank out 600,000 wafers a year. Apple CEO Tim Cook, at a “tool in” ceremony last year, said Apple would be “proud” to be the fab’s biggest customer. That’s no coincidence. Apple is TSMC’s largest source of business, worth billions in annual revenue. Apple is looking for chip security, among many companies seeking to shore up supplies amid rising geopolitical tensions and fears over disruptions.

Interview:
-This week, Barron’s features its conversation with Henrietta Treyz, director of economic policy research at Veda Partners and, in particular, how she interprets the events in Washington DC for the benefit investors. And there is a lot to decipher these days, what with two wars, a massive buildup of government debt, a congressional spending fight, and a continued struggle over who will replace ousted House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Treyz has been helping investors understand the implications of politics and policy, most recently at Veda, where she is a managing director. Her advice: Know which lawmakers to watch, and understand what motivates them, to know how they will vote.

Tech Trader:
-Earnings season is coming. When it comes to tech stocks, they came out roaring in 2023, with the Nasdaq Composite rallying 32% over the year’s first six months. But the group’s momentum is gone, with the same index down 1% since June 30. The Federal Reserve has increased interest rates beyond Wall Street’s expectations. Meanwhile, the early mania over generative artificial intelligence has become more nuanced in the second half. Following the initial hype, there are concerns about the economics of AI, which involves costly investment in processors and other hardware, with an uncertain payoff. Those investments now threaten the “year of efficiency” margin improvements that Meta Platforms and other tech firms have been touting. It’s all unfolding amid new worries about the near-term prospects for corporate IT spending. Netflix kicks off the earnings parade Wednesday. Investors will likely focus on its password-sharing program, its still-nascent advertising-supported subscription tier, and the lingering effects of the labor actions in Hollywood, where actors remain on strike, even after a settlement by writers.

The Trader:
-The oil price’s response to the Gaza crisis has been largely muted even as the Israeli armed forces have launched heavy airstrikes on the densely populated territory and appear to be preparing for an imminent ground invasion of Gaza. Futures tied to the US price of crude oil spiked to around $86.50 barrel on Monday, from near $83 on Friday. That gain reversed over the next few trading days, with oil back to $83 a barrel by Thursday—meaning no additional premium for the events of the past week. That’s because, the U.S. is now a net exporter of crude and has a strategic petroleum reserve that can be used to smooth out disruptions to the global oil supply (even if it’s currently less full than usual). What’s more, the initial attack and response have done little to affect the supply of oil, which continues to flow.
-Federal Reserve officials seem ready to reverse course; and they’ve been going out of their way to dismiss the likelihood of another hike, largely because the bond market has been doing the central bank’s work for it. The inverse relationship between bond yields and stock prices held firm this past week. After a relentless rise since the late summer to a nearly 5% yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note—and several losing weeks in a row for major stock indexes—yields reversed and stocks bounced. Many Fed speakers have conceded that the surge in bond yields had resulted in tighter financial conditions—raising borrowing costs for business, consumers, and the US government.

Features:
-The North American power grid system will face a test today, Saturday October 14, as an annular solar eclipse, a so-called ring of fire, will cause the US’s solar energy output to swing. That’s because, the skies will darken for about three hours as the moon will block the sunlight, taking most solar-power generation in states from California to Texas offline. Grid operators in the affected states are bolstering backup supplies to get ready. The eclipse will start on the West Coast in Oregon and head toward the Sunbelt. While the shadow will pass solar hot spots like Arizona and Nevada, it will bring the most impact to California and Texas.
As California falls under partial shadow, solar output there could drop to less than a quarter of what is typical on a sunny October day, according to the California Independent System Operator, the organization that runs the state’s grid.
-Wall Street expects Rivian to post an operating loss of about $1.4B in the third quarter, but the losses shouldn’t surprise anyone. The car business is a scale business. For example, Tesla wasn’t consistently profitable until it was selling roughly 100,000 units per quarter. Rivian delivered just under 16,000 units in the third quarter. The per-car loss works out to about $90,000. When Tesla was delivering about 12,000 cars a quarter it was losing about $20,000 per car. But Tesla got its manufacturing plant in California for a song from General Motors and Toyota Motor. It was also selling relatively expensive luxury cars. Ford, one of the only traditional auto makers that discloses profits and losses by vehicle type, reported an operating loss of about $32,000 per car in its EV business in the second quarter. It sold about 34,000 all-electric vehicles and hybrids in the quarter.

Europe:
-Novo Nordisk said Friday that it now expects 2023 sales growth of between 32% and 38%, an increase from prior expectations of 27% to 33%. The company also said it expects operating profit growth to be between 40% and 46%, higher than previous estimates of 31% to 37%. Novo Nordisk attributes its improved outlook to the strong performance of Ozempic and its cousin drug Wegovy. The demand for these drugs has skyrocketed as patients use them to assist with weight loss. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect Novo Nordisk to report third-quarter Ozempic revenue of $3.32B and Wegovy revenue of $1.07B. Novo Nordisk also noted that Ozempic showed strong success in a trial for kidney failure in diabetes patients. Because of the results, the company decided to end its study early.

Emerging Markets:
-no update this week

Commodities:
-Hamas’ surprise attack on Israeli territory has set off a conflict that in past eras would have upended oil markets. This time, the effect on prices lasted just one day and registered as a blip in the longer-term models of most analysts. But as war rages in the world’s largest storehouse of oil reserves, there are risks that the calm won’t last. The wild card this time is Iran, Israel’s most powerful foe and a growing force in oil markets. Past Middle East crises have often forced profound political shifts and more-prosaic changes in consumer behavior. The financial fallout is different this time. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, rose 4%, to $88 a barrel, this past Monday, the first full day of trading following the attacks, before giving back nearly all of its gains in the following three days. On Friday, prices rebounded again, but largely because of the US increased enforcement of sanctions on Russian oil, raising the prospect that global supplies will fall. US consumers aren’t likely to feel the impact of the war; gasoline prices have dropped consistently. Stocks of oil producers, meanwhile, have mostly traded in the same range they’ve been in since August, about 10% off their 52-week highs.

Streetwise:
-Jack Hough said that US companies are expected to report zero quarterly earnings growth in the weeks ahead; and, he thinks that’s actually good news, given that for three straight quarters, earnings have fallen year over year. So zero is a step in the right direction. And things look even better with some adjusting, excuse-making, and outright fantasizing. Earnings season traditionally kicked off with results from Alcoa; because it was the first to report among companies in the DJIA. But it went through a Dow ejection, spinoff, name change, and private-equity buyout, so the company called Alcoa today is a mere smelting stub of the one from before. Along the way, earnings season needed a new kicker-offer.

Business Of Fashion : Queuing Is Not A Luxury Experience

Queuing Is Not A Luxury Experience
It’s time for executives to rethink the lines outside luxury stores, writes Imran Amed.

LONDON — One of the most frustrating things about shopping for luxury fashion in the post-pandemic era is queuing — or “lining up,” as North Americans say. The default experience at luxury brands is increasingly arriving at a store — be it Chanel, Dior or Balenciaga — and being told by someone with an iPad that you must wait outside, often behind scores of other people, before you’re allowed in to have a look around.

This is something I have encountered everywhere from Bond Street to Bicester Village, and what’s bizarre is that sometimes these stores seem to have massive queues outside while the store inside looks completely empty.

If you have a direct relationship with a sales associate and are able to make an appointment in advance, you might be able to circumvent the queue, but this makes it difficult to pop by spontaneously. And it’s not a particularly smart strategy if brands want to welcome new customers to explore their stores, something that is more important now that the post-pandemic luxury boom is waning.

When I’ve quizzed luxury executives about the thinking behind this system, they’ve said it’s to ensure they can assign one sales associate to each customer to deliver the best shopping experience while also helping to manage the higher levels of shoplifting that they’ve had to contend with in recent years.

The thing is, these days one of the greatest luxuries of all is time. And sometimes I just want to efficiently pop into a store and have a look around. I don’t need a sales associate to assist me with that and I don’t want to wait in a line.

That’s why it was so refreshing to walk into a Celine store on London’s Bond Street over the weekend, and to be welcomed in without a hassle. Even though the store was very busy and a sales associate wasn’t available to help me right away, I was told I could have a look around on my own and they would send someone over when they became available. So simple, but so effective and as a customer, it made me feel like the brand valued my time.

At the other end of the fashion spectrum, I found myself at Uniqlo the other day to stock up on some socks. When I arrived at the till to pay, there was a short queue. A sales associate guided me to the self-checkout, and I cringed. (There is nothing I hate more than scanning my own groceries and then having to wait for the staff to help with the inevitable problems that arise.)

But there’s a twist! According to The Wall Street Journal, Uniqlo recently started using a “next-generation process powered by radio frequency identification readers inside the checkout machines, which automatically read hidden RFID chips embedded in price tags.” Using RFID also helps Uniqlo with stock keeping, managing inventory and loss prevention.

So, I was able to bypass the queue, put my socks into a checkout basket and, like magic, it calculated my bill in an instant, without having to scan each item individually. I tapped my credit card and I was off in less than a minute.

Now that’s a real luxury experience.

FT : Left’s take on Hamas stuns American Jews — and threatens Democratic party s

Left’s take on Hamas stuns American Jews — and threatens Democratic party split
Anti-Israel sentiment on university campuses and in street protests sparks anger and resentment

For Abraham Orden, a 43-year-old Jewish software executive from the Washington suburbs, the first inkling that the reaction to Hamas’s terror attack in southern Israel might not be what he anticipated came just hours after the assault had begun.

An Israeli woman on a WhatsApp group of mothers to which his wife belongs posted about her anguish — to which another mother reprimanded her with a post enumerating Palestinian grievances. The riposte quickly racked up likes.

“We were like, ‘well, that was weird’,” Orden said.

The next day, as details of Hamas’s slaughter of more than a thousand Israelis filtered out — with officials calling it the deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust — New York City’s chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America rallied in Times Square to celebrate the Palestinian “resistance”.

Then some campus groups joined in. A statement endorsed by 34 student groups at Harvard University blamed Israel for the violence inflicted on its people. At California State University Long Beach one student group advertised a “Protest for Palestine” with a poster featuring a paraglider of the sort that Hamas gunmen used to attack Israelis — a motif that Black Lives Matter Chicago adopted.

“I never would have expected this kind of vitriol among educated elites,” Orden said. “And now I just can’t unsee it.”

For many American Jews, the slaughter in Israel has been devastating, frightening and all-consuming — an attack that some are likening to a modern replay of the pogroms a century ago in eastern Europe that brought their families to the US in the first place.

It is also a political moment in which an emerging hard left that is often anti-Israel — and often accused of antisemitism — has reared into full view, posing a test for a fragmented Democratic party that may ripple through the coming US presidential election. It is likely to become more agonising as Israel’s counteroffensive gathers pace and casualties mount among Palestinian civilians.

Daniel Faraci, a strategist who has advised Republicans, expects the party to criticise Joe Biden for his policy of engaging Iran, Hamas’s chief sponsor, including his recent deal to unfreeze $6bn in Tehran’s assets. But, Faraci warned, Democrats would also be made vulnerable by a fringe that appeared to endorse terrorist violence against Jews.

“Anybody that’s associated with them is going to pay a price,” Faraci said, predicting the hard left would be “a massive problem moving forward for Biden and the Democrats”.

Hank Sheinkopf, a Democratic strategist — and ordained rabbi — agreed. “The [Democratic Socialists of America] response, which was absolutely wrong-headed, will be used to tank the Democrats,” he predicted.

Orden, who voted for Biden in 2020, said he did not know what he would do in the next election. The trauma of the attack, he said, had been compounded by a sudden feeling of alienation from erstwhile allies.

That same sense was captured by Lawrence Summers, the former Harvard president, when he posted on X, formerly Twitter, that he was “sickened” by the university’s failure to distance itself from the statement of its pro-Palestine student groups.

“Why can’t we find anything approaching the moral clarity of Harvard statements after George Floyd’s death or Russia’s invasion of Ukraine when terrorists kill, rape and take hostage hundreds of Israelis attending a music festival?” Summers wrote in another post.

On Wall Street, Marc Rowan, a founder of private equity giant Apollo Global Management, called for the sacking of the president at his alma mater, the University of Pennsylvania, for fostering a “selective tolerance” in which antisemitic groups thrived. He also urged fellow donors to join him in closing their wallets.

Jennifer Laszlo Mizrahi, an activist and politician with long ties to Israel, recalled growing up in a Jewish community in North Carolina that supported the civil rights movement — and then discovering this week that some Black Lives Matter chapters were defending Hamas and condemning Israel.

“It’s so upsetting,” said Laszlo Mizrahi, who knew eight people who were killed by Hamas. A friend’s son was taken hostage. Her synagogue in Maryland did not wish to publish details of a planned vigil for fear it would be targeted, she said, while also expressing heartbreak for innocent Palestinians.

Others noted the irony that progressive students were embracing an Islamist group that punishes homosexuality in Gaza.

American Jews have overwhelmingly made their political home in the Democratic party. But the party is enduring a generational rift over Israel that runs through its Jewish constituency, too.

That divide broke into public view when Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders were vying for the 2016 Democratic nomination. Clinton championed the establishment line that unconditional support for Israel would help to eventually secure a Palestinian state. Sanders, the Vermont senator and avowed socialist — who is Jewish — represented a younger generation that was critical of Israel’s government and eager to place conditions on military assistance and other US aid.

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s long-serving prime minister, has deepened those divisions with his support of the settler movement in Israel and undermining the country’s long tradition of bipartisanship in its US relations by embracing conservative Republicans, particularly former president Donald Trump.

When Netanyahu accepted a Republican invitation to address Congress in 2015 — over objections from Barack Obama’s White House, which was fighting with Israel’s prime minister over Iran policy — more than 50 Democrats boycotted the speech.

At the highest levels, Democrats supported Israel in highly visible fashion this week. Biden not only condemned Hamas but also recognised its atrocities. In Congress, members of a Jewish caucus who, as one consultant put it, “usually can’t even agree on a deli order”, swiftly found unity.

Ted Deutch, the former Florida representative who now leads the American Jewish Committee, called Biden’s address “one of the most important pro-Israel speeches I’ve ever heard in this country”, adding that the US response had been “overwhelmingly supportive”.

But others were focused on “the Squad” — the group of leftwing representatives who have entered Congress in recent years at the vanguard of an emerging progressive movement.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the New York representative who is the group’s de facto leader, backed out of the Times Square rally organised by the Democratic Socialists and later condemned it. “It’s very clear that AOC had a bit of a wake-up call,” Laszlo Mizrahi said.

Others, such as Minnesota’s Ilhan Omar and Michigan’s Rashida Tlaib — who is Palestinian American — did not mention Hamas in statements, let alone condemn it. Instead, Tlaib called for “dismantling the apartheid system that creates the suffocating, dehumanising conditions that can lead to resistance” and warned that the “cycle of violence” would continue unless military aid to Israel was cut.

Progressives’ criticisms of Israel have intensified during Netanyahu’s decade-long hold on power, inflamed by his abandonment of the peace process and restrictions on Palestinian communities in Gaza and the West Bank.

But even to many left-leaning American Jews, calls in the wake of the Hamas attack for “both sides” to immediately cease the violence rang like an effort to create a false moral equivalence.

“Israel is the only country in the world where when faced with the mass slaughter of a huge number of its civilians the world is already more interested in telling them what not to do,” said Jonathan Rosen, a Jewish New York City communications executive who helped bring progressives into office, including former mayor Bill de Blasio.

Rosen has been toggling between anger, grief and despair this week, he said. He is committed to establishing a political space in which progressive Jews can criticise Israel. But the complexities of doing so became evident when, riding the subway this week, Rosen saw the message from Ryna Workman, the president of the student bar association at his alma mater, New York University Law School.

“Israel bears full responsibility for this tremendous loss of life,” Workman stated. “This regime of state-sanctioned violence created the conditions that made resistance necessary. I will not condemn Palestinian resistance.”

Rosen said: “It is horrifying that people who profess that their life is all about the humanity of others — that maybe that humanity doesn’t extend to Jews.”