>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Siemens Healthineers (SHL TH) +3%
    • Siemens Healthineers Is Said to Mull Options for Diagnostics Arm
  • BMW (BMW TH) +2%
    • *BMW 3Q AUTOMOTIVE EBIT MARGIN 9.8%, EST. 9.63%
  • Vonovia (VNA TH) +1.6%
    • Vonovia 9M Loss EU3.81B Vs. Profit EU2.21B Y/y, Dims Outlook
  • Siemens Energy (ENR TH) +1.3%
MDAX:
  • ProSieben (PSM TH) +1.6%
  • SMA Solar (S92 TH) +1.3%
  • Hugo Boss (BOSS TH) +1.1%
  • Lufthansa (LHA TH) +1%
  • Aixtron (AIXA TH) +1%
SDAX:
  • Kontron (KTN TH) +3.7%
    • Kontron Sees FY Net Income Above EU72M, Saw EU66M
  • Krones (KRN TH) +3.7%
    • Krones 3Q Revenue Matches Estimates
  • PVA TePla (TPE TH) +3.2%
  • Thyssenkrupp Nucera AG & Co KGaa (NCH2 TH) +2.8%
  • PNE AG (PNE3 TH) +2.1%
  • Bilfinger (GBF TH) -1.7%
  • MorphoSys (MOR TH) -2.6%

WSJ : Sam Bankman-Fried Is Convicted of Fraud in FTX Collapse

Sam Bankman-Fried Is Convicted of Fraud in FTX Collapse
New York federal jury finds crypto exchange’s founder guilty of stealing billions of dollars from customers

FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried was convicted Thursday of stealing billions of dollars from customers of the doomed crypto exchange, in what prosecutors called one of the biggest financial frauds in U.S. history.

A New York federal jury convicted him of all seven counts he faced. The verdict capped the stunning fall of the onetime crypto king, whose shaggy-haired, boy-genius persona helped catapult FTX into a powerhouse trading platform that sponsored sports teams and ran glitzy ads featuring football great Tom Brady, model Gisele Bündchen and comedian Larry David.

The crypto exchange abruptly crashed a year ago, with customers losing billions of dollars. Bankman-Fried, 31 years old, was indicted in December 2022 and agreed to leave his home in the Bahamas to face an array of fraud charges. Near the end of the monthlong trial, Bankman-Fried took the risky move of testifying in his own defense.

Jurors, who walked stoically into the courtroom, reached their verdict after just a few hours of deliberations. Bankman-Fried, who stood and faced the jury, cast his head down after the verdict was read. His parents both held their heads in their hands, and his mother cried.

A sentencing date was set for March 28, 2024. He could face a decadeslong prison term.

“We respect the jury’s decision. But we are very disappointed with the result,” said Bankman-Fried lawyer Mark Cohen. “Mr. Bankman-Fried maintains his innocence and will continue to vigorously fight the charges against him.”

Jurors declined to comment on the deliberations as they left the courthouse. One said she was exhausted and ready to put the trial behind her.

For federal prosecutors, the verdict was an expected victory after putting forward what many observers saw as a powerful case that included 18 witnesses.

“While the cryptocurrency industry might be new, and the players like Sam Bankman-Fried might be new, this kind of corruption is as old as time,” said Damian Williams, the U.S. attorney in Manhattan. “This case has always been about lying, cheating and stealing, and we have no patience for it.”

His office had accused Bankman-Fried of being a greedy billionaire who lied to customers, investors and lenders while flying on private jets and hobnobbing with current and former heads of state. Prosecutors presented evidence and testimony showing Bankman-Fried was the architect of a scheme to siphon FTX money to repay the debts of its sister hedge fund, Alameda Research, bankroll risky investments, buy luxury real estate and cover hundreds of millions of dollars in political donations.

His closest former allies took the stand as government witnesses and testified that Bankman-Fried directed them to commit crimes, including secretly changing FTX’s code to allow Alameda to borrow virtually unlimited amounts from the exchange. Caroline Ellison, the government’s star witness and Bankman-Fried’s ex-girlfriend, told jurors that while she was the chief executive officer of Alameda, he instructed her to doctor balance sheets to fool the hedge fund’s lenders. The lying and stealing left her in “a constant state of dread,” she said.

Bankman-Fried’s lawyers argued that he wasn’t the movie villain prosecutors described him as but a math nerd and entrepreneur trying his best to build a business in an emerging industry. “In the real world, unlike the movie world, things can get messy,” Cohen told the jury.

Bankman-Fried’s decision to take the stand appeared perhaps his only shot at changing the momentum of the case.

On his first day of testimony, he confidently told jurors that he was a well-meaning player in the Wild West of crypto and that he frequently met with lawmakers in Washington in hopes of building a regulatory framework for the industry. He said he never defrauded customers, but regretted not instituting better risk management at FTX before its collapse in November 2022. “We sure should have,” he said.

Under cross-examination, Bankman-Fried floundered as a prosecutor contrasted his many public statements with his private ones in an attempt to show he was a liar. Bankman-Fried gave evasive answers and said he had little recollection of past comments prosecutors cited. During closing arguments, Assistant U.S. Attorney Nicolas Roos told jurors that Bankman-Fried said he didn’t recall at least 140 times. “He approached every question like up was down and down was up,” Roos said.

Bankman-Fried founded FTX in 2019. By 2021, the exchange had millions of customers and roughly $1 billion in annual revenue, Bankman-Fried testified. It imploded after the crypto website CoinDesk published in early November 2022 what purported to be a leaked Alameda balance sheet, causing a run on FTX customer funds.

Presiding over the trial was 78-year-old U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan, who kept the case moving by scolding prosecutors and defense lawyers for asking unnecessary questions while providing moments of levity with quips about the Brooklyn Dodgers and recollections of working in his father’s deli as a child.

Bankman-Fried still has other legal troubles looming. He is facing additional charges that could go to trial in March, including allegations of bank fraud and bribery conspiracies. Those charges were added after the initial indictment and separated from the first trial because of litigation in the Bahamas over the terms of his extradition. Kaplan instructed prosecutors to let him know by Feb. 1 if they plan to proceed with those charges.

The jury, composed of nine women and three men, ranged in age from 33 to 68. The jurors included a former investment banker, a high school librarian and an unemployed social worker.

Prosecutors built their case around the testimony of Ellison and two other members of Bankman-Fried’s inner circle, all of whom agreed to cooperate with prosecutors after pleading guilty to fraud and other offenses. The trio corroborated each other’s accounts, which were bolstered by contemporaneous documents and Signal chats that prosecutors showed the jury. All three pointed to Bankman-Fried as the mastermind of the fraud and accused him of covering his tracks, including by using an auto-delete function on messaging apps.

Nishad Singh, Bankman-Fried’s childhood friend and FTX’s former director of engineering, testified about learning in September 2022 that Alameda had used $13 billion in FTX customer funds and was unable to pay it back. Singh said he was distressed at the time and spoke to Bankman-Fried about the financial hole in a meeting on the balcony of the Bahamas penthouse apartment they shared. Bankman-Fried was unconcerned and thought the money could eventually be paid back, Singh recalled.

“I’m not sure what there is to worry about,” Bankman-Fried said, according to Singh.

Ellison testified that Bankman-Fried was a risk-taker who was comfortable with lying and stealing as long as it benefited the greater good. To attract FTX customers, he cultivated an appearance “as a smart, competent, somewhat eccentric founder,” she said. He regularly posted on social media, spoke to journalists and testified before Congress to promote FTX as a safe place to trade.

Even when he knew FTX was on the brink of collapse, Bankman-Fried posted on Twitter, the social-media platform now known as X, to falsely reassure customers, Ellison testified. Prosecutors backed up her testimony by showing jurors a Nov. 7, 2022, post in which he wrote, “FTX is fine. Assets are fine.”

Bankman-Fried pushed back during his testimony, telling jurors he wasn’t involved in Alameda’s operation after appointing Ellison and another employee as co-CEOs in summer 2021. He only learned of Alameda’s rampant spending of customer funds in fall 2022, he told jurors. At FTX, he said, he was involved in decision-making at a high level, but his deputies were largely self-directed.

Assistant U.S. Attorney Danielle Sassoon drilled into his testimony in cross-examination, casting doubt on his assertion of being a hands-off boss and highlighting even relatively innocuous statements—such as why he didn’t cut his hair—to show his equivocations. The tense exchanges between Sassoon and Bankman-Fried gripped jurors.

“You think of yourself as a smart guy?” she asked.

“In many ways. Not in all ways,” he replied.

>>> What to look at today - 3rd of November 2023

European stock futures rose, following a rally across Asian equities and currencies as traders embraced riskier assets on prospects the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle is nearing an end.  The MSCI’s Asia benchmark gained more than 1% on Friday, on track for its best week in two months. Gauges in Hong Kong led the region’s advance. US equity futures slipped following underwhelming results from Apple Inc. Contracts for Euro Stoxx 50 ticked higher ahead of eurozone unemployment data Friday.  The Korean won rose more than 1% against the greenback, the most among Asian currencies. A Bloomberg index of the dollar slipped for the third session, set for its steepest weekly decline since mid-July.  Traders are also turning their attention to the US nonfarm payroll data due later in the day for further conviction on the Fed’s rate path. Bloomberg Economics expects the pace of hiring to slow to less than half of September’s strong gain. Data released ahead of payrolls showed US labor productivity advanced by the most in three years, helping to alleviate the inflationary impact of recent wage growth.   Long-dated Treasury yields fell Thursday. The 10-year benchmark slipped nearly eight basis points. Trading in Treasuries in Asia will be closed given the holiday in Japan.  UBS anticipates the 10-year Treasury yield to fall to 3.5% by June next year, as the Fed shifts its attention from rate hikes to rate cuts, according to Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for Americas, at UBS Global Wealth Management. “The improving outlook for a softish landing for the US economy should also provide a positive backdrop for equities,” she said. Others hold a more cautious view. Hedge fund K2 Asset Management is predicting that benchmark 10-year Treasury yields will rise back to 5% — from 4.66% — while Franklin Templeton says they could peak at 5.25% — a level last seen in 2007. Barclays Plc co-head of global markets Stephen Dainton said it is “very unlikely” the Fed is done tightening policy. Oil was set for a second weekly loss as the Israel-Hamas war remained contained and clouds appeared on the demand horizon. Gold headed for its first weekly decline in four. Bitcoin fell Friday after Sam Bankman-Fried was convicted of a massive fraud that led to the collapse of his FTX exchange. US After Hours Busy earnings session, led by AAPL -3.4%; BILL -28%, FTNT -16.7%, FND -14.7%, FOXF -14.6%, TEAM -10.4%, BKNG -4.2%, OLED -4.2%, COIN -4% also lower on earnings; DOCN +18.4%, SQ +15.9%, TRUP +10%, PARA +4.9% higher on earnings.

Nikkei +1.10% Hang Seng +2.60% CSI +0.80% Shanghai +0.67% Shenzen +1.13%

Eur$ CNH CNY JPY GBP CHF RUB TRY WTI$ Gold BTC ETH

S&P -0.08% Nasdaq -0.29% EuroStoxx +0.38% FTSE +0.38% Dax +0.32% SMI +0.51%

Macro :
- JPMorgan Strategists Say Earnings Weakness Due to Commodities
- Arabica Coffee Surges After Stockpiles Plunge to 24-Year Low

Keep an eye on :
- AKER NO : Aker 3Q Net Asset Value per Share NOK862 Vs. NOK770 Q/Q
- AAPL US : Apple Posts Fourth Straight Sales Drop, Longest Slump Since 2001
- MT NA : US Steel Auction Said to Near End With Site Visits Next Week
- ATO FP : Onepoint’s Layani Plans to Be Atos Investor for Long Time: Echos
- CS FP : Axa 9M Revenue EU78.8B Vs. EU78B Y/y
- BG AV : Bawag Gets US Regulatory Approval for Idaho First Bank Deal
- BESI NA : BE Semiconductor to Build Ho Chi Minh City Plant: Media
- BMW GY : BMW’s Automotive Margin Beats Estimates as EV Sales Rise
- BRNL NA : Brunel 3Q Ebit EU18.8M Vs. EU17.4M Y/y
- CAV1V FH : Caverion 3Q EPS Beats Estimates
- CTT PL : CTT 9M Net Income EU35.5M Vs. EU28.3M Y/y
- COR PL : Corticeira Amorim 9M Net Income EU67M Vs. EU64.2M Y/y (1)
- EDP PL : EDP 9M Net Income EU946M Vs. EU518M Y/y
- FFARM NA : ForFarmers Names Kerkhoven Interim CFO; Underlying Ebitda +33.6%
- GBLB BB : GBL 9M Cash Profit EU371M Vs. EU377M Y/y
- KTN GY : Kontron Sees FY Net Income Above EU72M, Saw EU66M
- KRN GY : Krones 3Q Revenue Matches Estimates
- LTMC IM : Lottomatica Sees SKS365 FY 2023 Revenue About €300m
- MC FP : LVMH’s Thelios Buys Safilo Plant in Longarone, Italy (Oct. 31)
- MAERSKB DC : Maersk 3Q Ebitda Meets Estimates
- NEOEN FP : Neoen 3Q Revenue EU120.5M Vs. EU130.5M Y/y
- NOS PL : NOS 3Q Net Income EU45.9M Vs. EU106M Y/y
- RBI AV : Raiffeisen Boosts NII Guidance, Still Assessing Russia Unit
- SHUR BB : Shurgard 3Q Property Operating Revenue EU90.7M Vs. EU85M Y/y
- SHL GY : Siemens Healthineers Is Said to Mull Options for Diagnostics Arm
- SIFG NA : SIF 3Q Adjusted Ebitda EU7.1M Vs. EU7.8M Y/y
- SNBN SW : Switzerland, Banks Discuss New Rules to Stop Bank Runs: Reuters
- GLE FP : SocGen’s Revenue, Profit Slump as Hedges Hurt French Retail Unit
- SOLVB BB ; Solvay 3Q Adjusted Ebitda Misses Estimates
- SOLB BB : Solvay CEO Ilham Kadri to Become CEO of Syensqo Standalone Co
- SPIE FP : Spie 3Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- SREN SW : Swiss Re 9M Net Income $2.47B Vs. Loss $285M Y/y
- STLAM IM : Stellantis Deal Includes $19 Billion in US Investment, UAW Says
- SYAB GY : Synlab Boards Say Cinven Offer Doesn’t Reflect Long-Term Value
- TEMN SW : Temenos Falls; FuW Says Takeover Could Be Off The Table For Now
- TIT IM : Vivendi Urges Telecom Italia to Look at Merlyn Plan for Grid (1)
- VIV FP : Vivendi Urges Telecom Italia to Look at Merlyn Plan for Grid (1)
- VON GY : Vonovia 9M Loss EU3.81B Vs. Profit EU2.21B Y/y, Dims Outlook

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 3rd of November 2023

>>> Up
* Airbnb Raised to Buy at Phillip Secs; PT $157
* Andritz Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 60 euros
* Chr. Hansen Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 555 kroner
* Cordiant Digital Infrastructure/Fund Raised to Buy at Jefferies
* Fortum Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 14.50 euros
* Hexagon Raised to Buy at Nordea; PT 124 kronor
* ISS Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT 105 kroner
* Kering Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 540 euros
* Moderna Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT $69
* Novozymes Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 364 kroner
* Relais Group Raised to Buy at Inderes; PT 15.50 euros
* Scatec Raised to Hold at DNB Markets; PT 62 kroner
* Smith & Nephew Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 1,248 pence
* Uber Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $60

>>> Down
* Accor Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 33 euros
* Estee Lauder Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT $118

>>> Initiation
* Amazon Rated New Buy at William O'Neil
* Auto Trader Reinstated Buy at Panmure Gordon; PT 695 pence
* Richemont Reinstated Buy at Investec; PT 130.60 Swiss francs
* Yubico Rated New Buy at SEB Equities; PT 128 kronor

>>> Call
* JPMorgan Strategists Say Earnings Weakness Due to Commodities

>>> US Close Dow +1.70% S&P +1.89% Nasdaq +1.78% Russell +2.67%

Closing Stock Market Summary
The stock market was in rally-mode today, aided by falling interest rates, positive earnings news, and short covering activity. The Russell 2000 registered a 2.5% gain while the three main indices closed with gains ranging from 1.7% to 1.9%. The S&P 500 closed above its 200-day moving average (4,244) and the 4,300 level.

The 10-yr note yield fell another 12 basis points today to 4.67% while the 2-yr note yield rose one basis point to 4.98%. The drop in long term rates was aided by some softening manufacturing PMI data out of the eurozone, the Bank of England's decision to keep its Bank Rate unchanged at 5.25%, some short-covering activity in the Treasury market as well, and the Q3 productivity report showing a 0.8% decline unit labor costs.

Just about everything came along for the rally in the stock market. 29 of the 30 Dow components settled with a gain and all 11 S&P 500 sectors closed in the green. The energy (+3.1%) and real estate (+3.1%) sectors jumped more than 3.0% while the communication services sector (+0.9%) saw the slimmest gain.

Reactions to earnings news was generally positive, which acted as added support for the broader market. Qualcomm (QCOM 117.36, +6.47, +5.8%), Eli Lilly (LLY 580.29, +25.83, +4.7%), and Starbucks (SBUX 100.01, +8.66, +9.5%) were winning standouts in that respect.
Meanwhile, Airbnb (ABNB 115.50, -3.97, -3.3%) and Moderna (MRNA 71.23, -4.97, -6.5%) traded down after reporting earnings.

Other factors in play today included the notion that the Fed could be done raising rates, which followed remarks made yesterday by Fed Chair Powell at his press conference after the FOMC meeting, and the seasonality factor. November, on average, has historically been the strongest month for the S&P 500 and marks the start of the best six month return period for the S&P 500.
  • Nasdaq Composite: +27.0% YTD
  • S&P 500: +12.5% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +2.1% YTD
  • S&P Midcap 400: +0.02% YTD
  • Russell 2000: -2.7% YTD

Reviewing today's economic data:
  • Weekly Initial Claims 217K (Briefing.com consensus 214K); Prior was revised to 212K from 210K; Weekly Continuing Claims 1.818 mln; Prior was revised to 1.783 mln from 1.709 mln
    • The key takeaway from the report is much the same, which is to say the low level of initial claims isn't consistent with a material weakening in the labor market.
  • Q3 Productivity-Prel 4.7% (Briefing.com consensus 3.6%); Prior was revised to 3.6% from 3.5%; Q3 Unit Labor Costs-Prel -0.8% (Briefing.com consensus 1.5%); Prior was revised to 3.2% from 2.2%
    • The key takeaway from the report, other than the impressive uptick in productivity, is the decline in unit labor costs. It is a particularly timely piece of data, as it plays perfectly into the market's swelling expectation that moderating inflation pressures will keep the Fed from raising rates again.
  • September Factory Orders 2.8% (Briefing.com consensus 1.0%); Prior was revised to 1.0% from 1.2%
    • The key takeaway from the report is that factory orders in September were boosted nicely by strength in transportation orders, but the increase wasn't just a transportation story.

Friday's economic calendar features:
  • 8:30 ET: October Nonfarm Payrolls ( consensus 175K; prior 336K), Nonfarm Private Payrolls ( consensus 143K; prior 263K), Average Hourly Earnings ( consensus 0.3%; prior 0.2%), Unemployment Rate ( consensus 3.8%; prior 3.8%), Average Workweek ( consensus 34.3; prior 34.4)
  • 9:45 ET: Final October S&P Global US Services PMI (prior 50.1)
  • 10:00 ET: October ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (consensus 53.0%; prior 53.6%)

>>> Apple beats by $0.07; revs slightly ahead of consensus; iPhones and services

Apple beats by $0.07; revs slightly ahead of consensus; iPhones and services top expectations, while Macs miss expectations (177.57 +3.60)
  • Reports Q4 (Sep) earnings of $1.46 per share, $0.07 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.39; revenues fell 0.7% year/year to $89.5 bln vs the $89.34 bln FactSet Consensus.
  • Apple reports Q4 iPhone revenue of $43.8 bln vs. $43.4 bln and $42.6 bln last year.
  • Apple reports Q4 Mac revenue of $7.6 bln vs. $8.8 bln and $11.5 bln last year.
  • Apple reports Q4 iPad revenue of $6.4 bln vs. $5.9 bln and $7.2 bln last year.
  • Apple reports Q4 wearables revenue of $9.3 bln vs. $9.2 bln and $9.7 bln last year
  • Apple reports Q4 services revenue of $22.3 bln vs. $21.6 bln and $19.2 bln last year.
CEO Tim Cook told CNBC that iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max are still constrained because of high demand. Mr. Cook said he is optimistic about Mac business for holiday quarter.

"Today Apple is pleased to report a September quarter revenue record for iPhone and an all-time revenue record in Services," said Tim Cook, Apple's CEO. "We now have our strongest lineup of products ever heading into the holiday season, including the iPhone 15 lineup and our first carbon neutral Apple Watch models, a major milestone in our efforts to make all Apple products carbon neutral by 2030." "Our active installed base of devices has again reached a new all-time high across all products and all geographic segments, thanks to the strength of our ecosystem and unparalleled customer loyalty," said Luca Maestri, Apple's CFO. "During the September quarter, our business performance drove double digit EPS growth and we returned nearly $25 billion to our shareholders, while continuing to invest in our long-term growth plans."

Apple earnings conference call update; co guides Q1 (Dec) revenue below expectations
  • Q1 (Dec) Outlook: The company expects revenue to be similar to last year (Q1 FY23 actual was $117.2 bln; Q1 FY24 FactSet consensus is $123.3 bln) ; expects iPhone revenue to grow yr/yr; expects Mac and iPad performance to accelerate qtr/qtr. The company expects strong double digit rate of growth in services; expects gross margins between 45-46%
  • The company achieved all time record for revenue in India.
  • The company faced F/X headwinds in the September quarter.
  • 66% of college students are choosing a Mac.
  • Subscriptions to Major League Soccer season pass have exceeded expectations.
  • F/X had negative impact of 2 percentage points. Expects negative 1% impact from F/X for FY23.
  • Americas had September quarter record.
  • The company has 1 billion paid subs across its services.