>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Infineon (IFX TH) +2.1%
  • Mercedes (MBG TH) +1.3%
  • Vonovia (VNA TH) +1%
  • Siemens (SIE TH) +1%
  • Zalando (ZAL TH) -1.9%
    • Zalando Gross Margin Misses, Full-Year Guidance Cut: Street Wrap
MDAX:
  • Lufthansa (LHA TH) +7%
    • Lufthansa Upbeat on Outlook as Travel Boom Seen Continuing (1)
  • Delivery Hero (DHER TH) +2.4%
    • Delivery Hero Holds 6.7% Deliveroo Voting Rights vs 5.1% Prev
  • Hugo Boss (BOSS TH) +2.3%
    • Hugo Boss 3Q Sales at Constant Exchange Rates Beats Estimates
  • Fresenius Medical (FME TH) +1.5%
    • Fresenius Medical 3Q Operating Income Misses Estimates
  • Hensoldt (HAG TH) -0.9%
  • Hochtief (HOT TH) -1.3%
  • SMA Solar (S92 TH) -3.7%
SDAX:
  • PVA TePla (TPE TH) +6.6%
    • PVA TEPLA 9M EBITDA 29,1 MIO EUR 16,5 VJ: APA
  • Thyssenkrupp Nucera AG & Co KGaa (NCH2 TH) +3.6%
  • Borussia Dortmund (BVB TH) +2.7%
  • Schaeffler (SHA TH) +2.3%
  • Deutsche PBB (PBB TH) +0.8%

WWD : Don’t Call 1 Place Vendôme the Chopard Hotel

Don’t Call 1 Place Vendôme the Chopard Hotel
The Swiss jeweler and watchmaker opens its long-awaited hotel on Place Vendôme — and doors to the Scheufele family’s vision of hospitality.


Make yourself right at home at 1 Place Vendôme.

Chopard is bringing the famed hospitality of the Scheufele family to Paris with the opening of its long-awaited five-star property on the corner of Rue Saint-Honoré and Place Vendôme.

Entirely revamped by Paris-based architecture firm Pierre-Yves Rochon, this 18th-century listed building erected by Louis XIV’s secretary Pierre Perrin has been returned to its former glory as a six-story mansion.

With only 15 suites and rooms spread across 28,000 square feet, 1 Place Vendôme is more town house than template for a hotel franchise — there isn’t even anything that looks like a reception once a visitor steps inside.

Instead, there’s a monumental Murano glass necklace by artist Jean-Michel Othoniel taking pride of place opposite an 18th-century fireplace to welcome guests, who will then head to the library one flight up.

So despite the curling Cs on its wrought iron gate — and the presence of the house’s Parisian flagship, reopened in early 2023, on the ground floor — don’t call this the “Chopard hotel.”

“As a family, we decided that since we have an address that is so prestigious and storied, it would be a shame to stick a name on it,” said Karl-Fritz Scheufele, the third generation of the jeweler’s leading family and son of copresident Karl-Friedrich Scheufele.

“And the idea wasn’t creating plenty of Chopard hotels and brand it to the hilt,” he continued.

Reminders of the brand are therefore kept light throughout. Take the mosaic that spans a whole wall in the winter garden — once the boutique’s watch repair atelier — echoing the Animal World high jewelry collection released in 2010 for the house’s 150th anniversary.

Recreated under Caroline Scheufele’s supervision, it features the mouse holding a heart, butterflies, salamanders and monkeys, motifs that will “speak immediately to someone who knows the history of the house, but can be simply admired for its beauty by someone less familiar,” he said.

Overall, 1 Place Vendôme was almost a decade in the making, after Chopard acquired in 2014 the Union Hôtelière de Paris, a longstanding company that owned the building and operated the previous establishment.

Renovation alone took almost five years, owing to pandemic-driven delays but also to the extensive work needed to rehabilitate the building, bringing it up to standard but also returning some of its features, like the original levels, after the previous occupants — another hotel — created intermediate floors.

“If you look across the street to our neighbors [the Louis Vuitton store], you can see that the levels [of the near-identical buildings] match once more,” he pointed out.

This brought back the 17-foot ceiling height on the second floor, considered the noblest one in classic French architecture, but also revealed the wood beams that are now a feature of the Rubis suite.

Differences in floor level necessitated the addition of small steps here and there, but these perpetuate the charming image of apartments that have been lived in by successive generations.


So does the array of art that includes 1960s Marc Chagall lithography. The younger Scheufele attributed the selection to his father, who brought out pieces from their family home and “all of a sudden really wanted to put them in the hotel,” like the Andy Warhol print now hanging in the Ruby suite. “It wasn’t about letting go — he really wanted this to be in that particular place,” the son said.

While there won’t be a secret elevator leading down into the boutique or a “ring for diamonds” button in suites, there are plenty of breadcrumbs that lead back to the Chopard universe.

Rooms, for example, are named after gemstones and precious materials, as well as navigation instruments or even astronomy, both fields that led to watchmaking.

That provided plenty of inspiration to meet the family’s brief of keeping the historical cachet of the address while giving the impression of a home that lives with its times.


“Each [room] is unique, so that’s what allowed us to lean into a more contemporary side for some of them,” Scheufele said. “That mix between the two is what will give the place its charm.”

Take the Jade room, which takes its cues from the mineral’s connection to East and South Asian ornamentation but also to the aesthetic that was imported to Europe through early exchanges with the region. Tones of black and red nod to the codes of lacquerware, motifs of heron and flowers to the aesthetic glossary from across the Silk Road. Applied to classically French rooms, the result is evocative but not pastiche.

A host of artisans toiled on every detail, ranging from gold leaf patinated to look handsomely aged — and catch the light just so — and bespoke wallpapers or hand-painted frescoes by specialist De Gournay to the sculpted wood panels of the Appartement Chopard, by Ateliers de la Chappelle, a noted millwork specialist located in western France.

Also congruent with the idea of a home is the way 1 Place Vendôme approaches dining, placed in the hands of chef Boris Algarra, an alum of the nearby Mandarin Oriental under Thierry Marx.

Rather than have a restaurant, an all-day snacking menu is available, as well as a more elaborate French cuisine offering. Seasonal products are preferred, but there will always be sure-fire hits such as club sandwiches. Everything can be served anywhere in the hotel. “It’s really about being in a private home and being able to eat whatever you’d like — even fine cuisine — at any time,” Scheufele said.


Sadly for those hoping for a new spot to pop in for meetings or a drink in the pinnacle of high jewelry, the living spaces and bar — including a hidden cigar speakeasy — will be open only to hotel residents.

The privilege of being among them comes at a price: from 1,400 euros for a 350-square-foot room, breakfast not included, while a night the 1,400-square-foot Appartement Chopard starts at 14,000 euros — when it’s not taken over for the jeweler’s events during Paris Fashion Week and its couture counterpart.

These place 1 Place Vendôme squarely among the cadre of elite hotels that have opened in recent years, including the Bulgari and Cheval Blanc properties, both owned by LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton.

For those hankering for a fine dining experience, 1 Place Vendôme’s chef’s table set in the underground wine cellar will seat up to eight, open to bookings on a first-come, first-serve basis, with bespoke menus by Algarra.

And why not create encounters between hotel guests by offering to share a table for an evening? “I really like the idea of community travel and having people dine together with strangers,” Scheufele said. “Luxury is also being able to create a dialogue with clients and pushing hospitality that little bit further.”
For the Scheufele family, hospitality is par for the course in life as in business.

There’s the confectionary that put copresident and creative director Caroline Scheufele on the Cannes Film Festival map as “the girl who makes the chocolates,” an anecdote she is fond of sharing, but also offering catering in their Baselworld booth that was so scrumptious retailers would find an excuse to lunch there throughout the fair.

There’s also Geneva-based restaurant Le Caveau de Bacchus, acquired in 1999 by wine lover Karl-Friedrich Scheufele, who already had a wine trading company. He later acquired the Château Monestier-la-Tour wine estate in the Southern Bergerac region, which now has organic certification.

For Karl-Fritz Scheufele, hospitality came from the idea that helming a company like Chopard hinges as much on business acumen as it does on being able to address the needs of high jewelry and watchmaking’s exacting clientele.


Off he went for experiences at famed Zürich’s five-star Baur Au Lac and at Ritz-Carlton properties in Canada — “and I loved it,” he recalled. He followed with a degree at the EHL Hospitality Business School in Lausanne and a master’s degree at the ESCP Business School, between its Paris and London campuses.

More than a new business venture, the younger Scheufele described 1 Place Vendôme as a reflection of his family’s interests.

Case in point, the array of books spread throughout the library. Titles hint at different family members: watches, micromechanics and classic cars for his father; gardens, art and jewelry for his aunt, and Japanese architecture, gastronomy and tea for himself.

There’s also a tome on icons of hospitality, the younger Scheufele adds after a beat. “Perhaps one day 1 Place Vendôme will be one of them. But for now, we’d just like to open,” he quipped.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 2nd of November 2023

>>> Up
* Babcock Raised to Buy at Shore Capital; PT 465 pence
* Cemex ADRs Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $8.20
* Cicor Tech Raised to Buy at Baader Helvea; PT 58.50 Swiss francs
* Clorox Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $150
* Multiconsult Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 160 kroner
* Orsted Raised to Buy at DNB Markets; PT 325 kroner
* YIT Raised to Reduce at Inderes; PT 1.65 euros

>>> Down
* AB InBev price target lowered to EUR 67 from EUR 68 at Barclays
* AFRY AB Cut to Sell at DNB Markets; PT 105 kronor
* Beasley Broadcast Cut to Neutral at Guggenheim; PT 75 cents
* Boliden Cut to Sell at Berenberg
* doValue Cut to Neutral at Mediobanca SpA; PT 5.20 euros
* EFG International Cut to Sell at Citi; PT 9.80 Swiss francs
* Estee Lauder Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $115
* Wartsila Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 12 euros

>>> Initiation
* Amazon Rated New Buy at HSBC; PT $160
* Avacta Group Reinstated Sell at Numis; PT 70 pence

>>> Call
* Boliden Cut to Sell at Berenberg as Operational Turnaround Drags

>>> What to look at today - 2nd of November 2023

Stocks and currencies in Asia rose in a relief rally as investors weighed the possible peak of the Federal Reserve’s historic tightening campaign.  Equity benchmarks advanced across the region from Sydney to Hong Kong, with tech firms at the forefront. The South Korean won led emerging-market currencies higher, while the yen also advanced. US stock futures edged higher. The rebound indicated relief among investors in assets that had been battered by expectations of higher-for-longer US rates, after Federal Reserve officials hinted that a run-up in long-term Treasury yields reduces the impetus to tighten policy further. While they left the door open to another increase, Chair Jerome Powell indicated that a pause gives the central bank time to assess if it needs to do more to contain inflation. Following a 20-basis-point slump in Treasury 10-year yields on Wednesday, bonds in the region rallied. New Zealand yields led the decline with a 25-basis-point drop, while even Japanese sovereign bond yields fell despite weak demand at the country’s first bond sale since the central bank loosened its grip on its yield curve control policy on Tuesday. Lower Treasury yields weighed on the greenback, which weakened against major currencies, and helped buttress the yen. The Japanese currency strengthened early Thursday extending gains from Wednesday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell left the door open for further hikes in the central bank’s Wednesday decision, but noted that financial conditions have “tightened significantly in recent months driven by higher, longer—term bond yields, among other factors.” Powell repeatedly said the committee was moving “carefully,” a wording that often has signaled a low likelihood of any immediate change in policy. He also said risks to the outlook have become more two-sided as the tightening campaign nears its end. US jobs data painted a mixed picture. There were more job openings than forecast, according to the latest JOLTS data, while ADP’s private payrolls figures showed fewer new roles than anticipated. Initial jobless claims figures will be released later Thursday. Elsewhere, the Bank of England is expected to hold rates for a second consecutive meeting Thursday, as inflation concerns ease. Back in Asia, South Korea’s inflation unexpectedly accelerated in October, reinforcing the case for the local central bank to keep its restrictive policy in place for longer. Meantime, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced a larger-than-expected economic stimulus package.   Other economic releases Thursday include a monetary policy decision in Malaysia and PMI data for Singapore. Investors will also be keeping an eye on earnings releases from Tata Motors Ltd and Adani Enterprises Ltd. Other companies due to release results include Eli Lilly & Co and Novo Nordisk, while Apple Inc will deliver its latest earnings later on Thursday in the US.  Semiconductor manufacturers and related stocks jumped after AMD provided a strong sales forecats of its new processor with SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics leading the way.   West Texas Intermediate, the US oil benchmark, advanced more than 1% to above $81 per barrel, retracing a Wednesday decline. Gold was steady and bitcoin traded largely unchanged at around $35,500. US After Hours Busy earnings night; ROKU +15.9%, FARO +11%, FSLY +10.5%, ELF +8.4%, DASH +7.6%, PYPL +3.6% higher on earnings; CFLT -34.7%, RELY -22.4%, SEDG -22%, ABNB -2.9% lower on earnings.

Nikkei +1.10% Hang Seng +0.71% CSI -0.26% Shanghai -0.24% Shenzen -0.74%

Eur$ 1.0535 CNH 7.3323 CNY 7.3187 JPY 150.40 GBP 1.2176 CHF 0.9042 RUB 92.6000 TRY 28.3425 WTI$ 81.25 +1% Gold 1,985 +0.12% BTC 35,200 -0.71% ETH 1,835 -1%

S&P +0.14% Nasdaq +0.27% EuroStoxx +0.56% FTSE +0.40% Dax +0.53% SMI +0.22%

Macro :
- BofA Sentiment Indicator Shows S&P Gaining 16% Over Next Year
- Macron Flexes Protectionist Muscle to Shield Vulnerable Firms

Keep an eye on :
- ADEN SW : Adecco 3Q Revenue Meets Estimates
- AIR FP : Spirit Aero Says Striking New Airbus Pact of ‘Utmost Urgency’
- AF FP : Schiphol Airport to Cancel Some Flights on Thursday Due to Storm
- ALT US : Altice USA 3Q Adjusted Ebitda Beats Estimates
- AMBEA SS : Ambea 3Q Net Sales Meets Estimates
- ANDR AV : Andritz 3Q Ebita Beats Estimates
- ATO FP : Onepoint Holds 9.9% of Atos as Part of Reorganization
- BAMNB NA : BAM Sees FY Adjusted Ebitda Margin 4.5%, Saw Above 4%
- CTY1S FH : Citycon Narrows FY EPRA EPS Forecast
- DHER GY : Delivery Hero Holds 6.7% Deliveroo Voting Rights vs 5.1% Prev
- DIS US : Disney to Pay $8.61 Billion for Comcast’s 33% Stake in Hulu (1)
- DKSH SW : DKSH to Buy Bio-Strategy to Grow in Australia, NZ; No Terms
- DRW3 GY : Draegerwerk 3Q Ebit EU29.2M
- DUFN SW : Dufry AG 3Q Sales Beats Estimates
- EPR NO : Europris 3Q Ebitda Beats Estimates
- FRE GY : Fresenius SE 3Q Net Income Excluding Items Meets Estimates
- FME GY : Fresenius Medical 3Q Operating Income Misses Estimates
- FME GY : Fresenius Medical Care Raises 2023 Operating Income Outlook
- GEBN SW : Geberit Sees FY Ebitda Margin 29% to 30%, Saw About 29%
- GF SW : GF Unit Takes 51% Stake in Corys Piping Systems of Dubai
- BOSS GY : Hugo Boss 3Q Sales at Constant Exchange Rates Beats Estimates
- INGA NA : ING Announces €2.5B Buyback; 3Q NII Misses Estimates
- ISS DC : ISS 3Q Sales Beats Estimates
- KOJAMO FH : Kojamo 3Q Net Rental Income Beats Estimates
- LLOY LN : Lloyds Rejected Barclay Family’s £1b Bid for Telegraph: FT
- LHA GY : Lufthansa 3Q Adjusted Ebit Matches Estimates
- MC FP : Luxury Group Lalique Acquires Sauternes Vineyard Near Bordeaux
- NANO FP : Nanobiotix Offers $30 Million Shares
- NAS NO : Norwegian Air 3Q Net Income Beats Estimates
- NETC DC : Netcompany Narrows FY Sales at Constant Exchange Rates Forecast
- NOVOB DC : *NOVO NORDISK 3Q WEGOVY SALES DKK9.65B, EST. DKK8.07B
- NOVOB DC : Novo Nordisk 3Q Wegovy Sales Beats Estimates
- OR FP : *SHISEIDO FALLS AS MUCH AS 5.5% AFTER ESTÉE LAUDER CUTS OUTLOOK
- OERL SW :Oerlikon 3Q Ebitda Meets Estimates
- PSH NA : Pershing Square Holdings Oct. Net Performance -3.6%
- PFV GY : Pfeiffer Vacuum Boosts FY Sales Forecast
- SCATC NO : Scatec Lowers Ebitda Guidance as 3Q Revenue Misses Estimates
- G24 GY : Scout24 SE Boosts FY Operating Ebitda Forecast
- SGL GY : SGL Sees FY Adjusted Ebitda Low End of EU160M to EU180M
- SCMN SW : Swisscom Sees FY Net Rev. CHF11.0B, Saw CHF11.10B to CHF11.20B
- TE FP : Technip Energies 9M Adjusted Recurring Ebit EU318.6M
- TEN IM : Tenaris 3Q Net Sales Meets Estimates
- UBI FP : *ELECTRONIC ARTS RISES 4% AFTER BOOSTING 2024 ADJUSTED EPS VIEW
- UBSG SW : UBS’s Ronner: Bank Not Too Big for Switzerland Despite CS Merger
- UPONOR FH : Georg Fischer Has 92% of Uponor Shares, Voting Rights
- VLK NA : Van Lanschot Kempen 3Q Total Client Assets EU133.6B
- ZAL GY : Zalando FY Revenue Forecast Misses Estimates, Gross Margin Misses, Full-Year Guidance Cut: Street Wrap
- ZURN SW : Zurich Insurance to Buy 51% in Kotak General for $487 Million

WWD : LVMH’s Chris de Lapuente on ‘Delighting’ Shoppers

LVMH’s Chris de Lapuente on ‘Delighting’ Shoppers
"Stores are going to have to work harder and harder to excite the customers," said the chairman and CEO of the selective retailing division of the French luxury giant.

Today’s consumers have become so demanding, premium and luxury retailers must surprise and “delight them more than anyone else.”

So says Chris de Lapuente, chairman and chief executive officer of the selective retailing division of LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton, which clocked gains of 26 percent last year and in the most recent quarter.

Generating around 15 billion euros in revenues annually, it’s the second-largest division at the French luxury group after fashion and leather goods, comprising Sephora, which has grown fivefold over the last dozen years; travel retail specialist DFS; cruise-ship retailer Starboard; website 24S; grocery retailer La Grande Épicerie de Paris, and department stores Samaritaine Paris and Le Bon Marché.

“We are expecting a fourth quarter of double-digit growth as well,” de Lapuente predicted.

But all retailers have to work harder than ever to keep consumers coming back.

“You come to the store not just to buy your product, but you come to experience, you come to discover things that you might have not expected, the elements of surprise, the wow, the stories, the relationship,” he told the WWD Apparel & Retail CEO Summit in New York City on Oct. 24. “We believe the role of stores is changing. Boring retail may be dead, but exciting retail is alive and kicking.

“Stores are going to have to work harder and harder to excite the customers and make the effort to delight them,” he said.

De Lapuente made a compelling case for “retail entertainment,” roaming the stage and flashing slides showing how Le Bon Marché in Paris is sparking curiosity with storewide displays, like a recent invasion of strange pink figures by iconoclastic French artist Philippe Katerine.

The Left Bank department store is now in the habit of clearing away the beauty stands in its vast nave to make way for immersive evening theater performances, for which customers pay 75 euros. The executive noted that 17,000 people attended a dramatic interpretation of Émile Zola’s “Au Bonheur des Dames” earlier this year, and a fall spectacle, “Cirque le Roux,” has already sold more than 10,000 tickets in less than two months.

“This delights our customers and they feel they’re living a special experience,” he said.

Likewise, some 4,200 beauty enthusiasts recently paid between $120 and $370 to attend a New York engagement for Sephoria, the beauty festival hosted by Sephora that debuted in Los Angeles in 2018. De Lapuente noted some 90,000 people joined the Manhattan event via the internet, suggesting customers appreciate such “insider” opportunities.

“The dream and ambition would be to do this in most of the major cities,” he said of the fairs, which have also been staged in Paris and Shanghai recently. “It will be the place where you go to discover what is hot, exciting and trendy in the world of prestige beauty.”

De Lapuente also touted the art of curation and the need to take brand partnerships to the highest levels. Of about 2,200 brands carried at Le Bon Marché, roughly one-third are exclusive, including fashion line Sézane and jewelry-maker Maria Tash.

Dior’s takeover of Harrods in London last holiday, with a gingerbread-palooza encompassing the entire store, was “truly remarkable,” exemplifying “fantastic storytelling,” he argued.

Meanwhile, aboard cruise ships destined for Alaska, Starboard teams created a bespoke store of exclusive, unique products that travelers could purchase as authentic souvenirs.

The executive also trumpeted the need for retailers to build communities, noting that Sephora boasts 60 million regular customers, and that Le Bon Marché employs a dozen personal shoppers. “I would like to have 100,” he said. “This has to be a major area of focus.”

In a similar vein, he noted the department store boasts 50 stations where various products can be personalized — a number he would like to double.

Finally, he stressed the need to put “people and culture” at the heart of the business.

Echoing other speakers at the WWD event, de Lapuente cited the growing challenge of staff retention in retail, especially after the pandemic, which prompted widespread questioning about the “work-life balance” and popularized remote working on — simply not possible in retail, when evenings and weekend shifts are the norm.

“We need to focus on better retention, better career development,” he said. “Post-COVID-19, the challenges are even greater than before.…We are gradually introducing more flexible work arrangements.”

On the diversity front, de Lapuente said his division has made major strides. When he arrived, about 70 percent of the top 100 executives at Sephora were men. “Ten years later, we flipped it,” he said, flashing a slide of Artemis Patrick, the first female leader of Sephora North America in 25 years.

He noted Patrick is on track to be the first female CEO of the prestige beauty retailer’s North American arm when current president and CEO Jean-André Rougeot retires next year.

“Across the whole of selective retailing, about 65 percent of our top leaders are female,” he said, noting “it’s not something that’s happened in five minutes: It’s taken us 10 years to get there.”

“We need to be braver, and more courageous managing the careers of young people,” he added.

Sephora is also seeking more diverse suppliers, identifying promising beauty entrepreneurs of color under its Accelerate program.

“You can keep on waiting and waiting for another Rihanna to come along. Alternatively, you can go out and look for young, promising founders, and you work with them in the kitchen coaching, helping them develop,” he said.

During a question-and-answer session, de Lapuente trumpeted the Sephora at Kohl’s initiative, initiated in 2021 with the opening of 200 shops-in-shop and expanded since. He cited “zero cannibalization” and “all incremental” business.

“There are others who have tried to follow our example, and it often doesn’t feel like prestige,” he opined. “We do $1 billion at Kohl’s and we think we can double it.”

WSJ : Italy’s Rumbling Supervolcano Has Half a Million Residents on Edge

Italy’s Rumbling Supervolcano Has Half a Million Residents on Edge
Campi Flegrei, not far from ill-fated Pompeii, has had 2,500 earthquakes since August

POZZUOLI, Italy—Diners at restaurants around this tiny port streamed outside while moored boats and an eight-story crane began to sway. Some cats milled about, unfazed by the umpteenth tremor to hit this picturesque seaside town.

“You feel that? It’s nonstop earthquakes here,” said Luca Averna, a part-time fisherman, as he paused from working on his small boat during the 3.6-magnitude tremor. “We’re used to it, but that doesn’t mean we aren’t afraid.”

Pozzuoli, about 8 miles west of Naples, has had more than 2,500 earthquake tremors in the past three months. So far, few have been large, but residents are on edge: They live on top of a supervolcano, a classification given to about 20 of the world’s largest volcanoes. The constant earthquakes are a sign of volcanic activity deep underground.

Vesuvius, southeast of Naples, which destroyed Pompeii in the first century A.D., is the region’s most famous volcano. But modern volcanologists are far more worried about the cluster of low-lying craters around Pozzuoli known as Campi Flegrei. The 80-square-mile depression is home to more than a dozen conical volcanoes, several crater lakes—and half a million residents. Another 800,000 people live just outside the depression.

In Campi Flegrei, like in Yellowstone and the world’s other supervolcanoes, the probability of a catastrophic eruption is low but not nil, said Alessandro Iannace, a geology professor at the University of Naples Federico II who wrote a popular geology book.

“The difference is that in Yellowstone, if you think the eruption is coming, you can send the tourists home and close the park for four years,” said Iannace. “You can’t do that with Campi Flegrei. There are just too many people there.”

Residents here get frequent reminders that they live on top of a slumbering giant. Hydrogen sulfide, with its distinctive smell similar to rotten eggs, often drifts into town from one of the craters, displacing the salty sea breeze.

“If you want to live in Pozzuoli, you have to learn to cohabit with the volcano,” said Roberto Marotta, who manages a clothing shop in Pozzuoli. “You’re always thinking about it, even when you sleep. If my wife moves in bed I jump up thinking it’s a quake.”

The frequent earthquakes are part of a phenomenon called bradyseism, the gradual rising or falling of a part of the earth’s surface caused by activity inside a volcano.

The area around Pozzuoli’s port has risen about 11.5 feet since the late 1960s, including more than 3 feet since 2014, according to Italy’s National Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology.

On a recent Sunday, authorities in Pozzuoli handed out pamphlets titled “I’m Not Risking It,” containing information on how to evacuate if an eruption appears imminent, and how to act in the aftermath of an eruption. Tips include thoroughly washing food that has come in contact with volcanic ash and not driving on ash-covered roads.

The authorities’ evacuation plans include identifying routes out of Campi Flegrei. Locals say the roads, which are often clogged with traffic on normal days, are too small to handle the crush of a full-scale evacuation.

“Everybody here knows the evacuation plan is inadequate,” said Claudio Correale, who heads a local cultural association that keeps an archive of photos and news clippings of past periods of volcanic activity. “But it’s probably not even necessary, because everybody will have left by the time the volcano erupts.”

An eruption in Campi Flegrei isn’t imminent, but earthquakes have weakened the volcano, making a rupture in the crust more likely, according to a recent study by researchers at Italy’s national institute and University College London.

Pozzuoli endured intense earthquake activity in the early 1970s and again a decade later when authorities issued an obligatory evacuation order for part of the town. When local realtor Antonio Guitto was a boy, he remembers, he slept in the family car some nights with his parents and two siblings after nocturnal quakes.

The recent spate of quakes has put Pozzuoli’s housing market into a deep freeze, with nervous buyers canceling deals at the last minute, said Guitto.

“The quakes spooked everybody,” he said. “The nighttime quakes are the worst because you can’t get back to sleep.”

Pozzuoli’s population of 77,000 has grown steadily in recent decades. Even the forced evacuation in the 1980s didn’t stop people moving to the area.

Campi Flegrei’s last big eruption was in 1538, when the fiery outburst swallowed an entire village and left behind a new volcanic cone that rises 440 feet above sea level. That volcano, called Monte Nuovo, meaning “new mountain,” is now a nature reserve. A trail winds through dense trees to the edge of the crater, where visitors can peer inside or enjoy a view of the bay of Pozzuoli. A school, restaurants, cafes and shops line the streets at Monte Nuovo’s base.

At the nearby Solfatara crater, a smell similar to rotten eggs blends with the scent of fig trees. The crater contains the decaying remains of a soccer field, a swimming pool and other facilities. It used to be a popular campground, but the authorities closed it in 2017 after a boy and his parents fell into a sinkhole and died from inhaling toxic gases.

Houses and apartment buildings line the road leading up to the Solfatara crater. Soccer fields have been carved into the slope 50 yards away from where vents constantly emit steam and volcanic vapors.

At Pozzuoli’s shore, years of frequent earthquakes have raised the seabed so that only the smallest boats can now enter the historic port.

“Kids used to dive into the water here,” said Averna, the fisherman, gesturing at a patch of dirt and weeds. “You can’t help wondering where we’re headed.”

FT : Lloyds rebuffs Barclay family’s latest £1bn attempt to regain Telegraph

Lloyds rebuffs Barclay family’s latest £1bn attempt to regain Telegraph
The family turned to Abu Dhabi to back its latest offer to regain control of the newspaper

Lloyds Banking Group has rebuffed the latest £1bn attempt by the Barclay family to reclaim the Telegraph, attempting to reassure unsettled bidders in an auction for the British newspaper group.

Bidders for the centre-right broadsheet have been concerned by repeated offers by the Barclay family to take back control of The Telegraph and The Spectator by paying down much of the £1.1bn debt owed to Lloyds.

The bank, which placed the Telegraph into receivership in June, rejected a £1bn offer initially made by the family and backed by Middle Eastern investors as recently as three weeks ago, according to two people familiar with the situation.

Lloyds told the Barclays to either repay the £1.1bn with a transparently funded offer, or bid in an ongoing auction, those people said. The bank has contacted bidders to reassure them of progress in the auction, which aims to be completed by early next year, they added.

Analysts do not expect the sale price for the Telegraph to exceed £600mn based on market comparisons. 

The move by Lloyds comes as a court hearing last week in the British Virgin Islands postponed the appointment of liquidators for a holding company that sits above the newspaper group and the debt. The court heard that the Barclay family had made a £1bn offer backed by a member of the Emirati royal family.

The court said that the family had an extra month to resolve the ownership of the newspaper with the bank before a judgment would decide the fate of the holding company.

Lloyds considers that there has not been sufficient proof of funds so far from the family, despite a letter to the bank suggesting that the offer was backed by the First Abu Dhabi Bank, according to the two people familiar with the bid. There are also concerns over whether a bid backed by Abu Dhabi would need to be scrutinised for approval by the secretary of state through a Public Interest Intervention Notice (PIIN).

A person close to the family said that the letter from the Abu Dhabi bank over funding should be sufficient to show that the offer was real.

The Barclay family will still try to negotiate a deal to buy back the debt before the end of the month, according to people familiar with their position. 

A spokesperson for the family said that the proposals concern “the settlement of outstanding loans . . . there is no precedent and no basis for a PIIN being issued in relation to a debt transaction, and we are highly confident [this] would not trigger any regulatory reviews regarding the ownership of the media assets”. 

Lloyds declined to comment.

The auction is proceeding as planned, with first-round bids expected over the next few weeks, and a conclusion of the process scheduled for the first quarter of 2024, according to people familiar with the situation. As well as any additional scrutiny triggered by a PIIN, any deal will probably attract investigations by the regulator, Ofcom, and the Competition and Markets Authority. 

Analysts at Enders say most bidders would be subject to public interest scrutiny, and in particular if using Middle Eastern cash. Lord Rothermere’s DMGT is in talks over a minority investment from investors in Qatar to boost its firepower in the auction for the Telegraph, while other bidders are also sounding out funders from Saudi Arabia and other parts of the region.

Nadhim Zahawi confirmed in a Times Radio interview on Wednesday that he has tried to help the Barclay family as a “friend”, including introducing them to potential investors from the UAE “and other parts of the world”. Zahawi, the Conservative MP and former minister, denied acting as a broker in any deal, and insisted this was a matter for the family and Lloyds. He added that it would be “an honour” to be appointed chairman of the newspaper group.

Other bidders for the newspaper include a consortium fronted by Sir William Lewis and UK-listed National World. Rupert Murdoch’s News UK has also registered interest, but it is expected to focus on attempting to acquire The Spectator magazine, according to those close to the process.

Bidders were this week asked to sign non-disclosure agreements before accessing the data room to examine the financial position of the newspapers.

Paul Marshall, the Brexit-supporting hedge fund founder who has agreed funding from US financier Ken Griffin, also wants to grow the newspaper in the US, where his management team sees a gap in the market for a mainstream centre-right audience.

Some bidders have also attempted to approach Lloyds about a potential deal involving the debt behind the paper, including Marshall, but have been told that the bank only wanted to sell through the auction. Any deal over the debt would also need the dissolution of the British Virgin Islands holding company.

FT : Brookfield-led ‘final’ bid for Australian energy giant rebuffed by largest

FT : Brookfield-led ‘final’ bid for Australian energy giant rebuffed by largest shareholder
$12.5bn takeover of Origin Energy in balance ahead of vote this month on deal

A “best and final” offer from a Brookfield-led consortium to take over Australia’s largest energy provider has been immediately rebuffed by the target’s biggest shareholder, putting the A$19.4bn ($12.5bn) deal in the balance.

The future of Origin Energy, which has 4.2mn retail customers and a stake in a large offshore gas project, will now be determined on November 23, when shareholders will vote on the new offer. It was pitched at a 70 per cent premium to the share price of the company a year ago when the bid was first made.

The 8 per cent increase in the bid came after AustralianSuper, the country’s largest pension fund and biggest Origin shareholder, with a 13.67 per cent stake, said this week it would vote against what was on the table. The fund then said on Thursday the new offer was still “substantially below” its view of the energy company’s long-term intrinsic value.

Origin shares fell more than 6 per cent to A$8.49 on Thursday as investors bet that the deal would fail.

The takeover is an acid test for the country’s energy transition. Canadian asset manager Brookfield, which teamed up with US firm EIG to buy Origin with a view to splitting it up, has maintained the takeover means it would invest between A$20bn and A$30bn over the next decade in Australia’s move away from fossil fuels.

Brookfield argues that private capital is needed for the country to rapidly reduce its reliance on coal-fired power plants for electricity if it is to meet its net zero targets. They include a commitment to source 80 per cent of electricity from renewable sources by 2030.

The takeover has already received regulatory approval and has been championed by Mark Carney, the former Bank of England governor, who is co-head of Brookfield’s Global Transition Fund. 

The rising value of Origin shares over the past year, partly driven by the growth of UK supplier Octopus Energy, in which it holds a 20 per cent stake, has put pressure on Brookfield and EIG, which intends to take the gas assets, to raise their offer.

They have now added A$1.2bn in cash to the bid, which they describe as a “best and final” offer. It is pitched at A$9.53 a share — above an independent valuation of Origin’s assets and potential conducted this year.

Origin’s board has recommended acceptance, with the deal giving the company an enterprise value of A$19.4bn, which includes $2.9bn of net debt.

Simon Mawhinney, chief investment officer at Allan Gray Australia, which owns a 3.5 per cent stake in Origin, said his fund would vote in favour. “I think the consortium has made a reasonable offer here. It strikes the right balance between risks and opportunities for the company,” he told the Financial Times.

Brookfield and EIG need 75 per cent of shareholders to back its bid as the takeover has been structured as a scheme of arrangement. However, the consortium inserted a new clause into the improved offer that would allow it to make an off-market takeover bid for Origin within three months of an acquisition of a 5 per cent stake in the company.

Such a move would lower the threshold of acceptance for a deal to 50.1 per cent.