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DAX:
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  • Infineon (IFX TH) +0.6%
    • Watch Chip Stocks as Arm IPO Gets Oversubscribed by 10 Times
  • SAP (SAP TH) -1.6%
    • Watch SAP, Software Stocks as Oracle Reports Slower Cloud Growth
MDAX:
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  • Duerr (DUE TH) +2.7%
    • Duerr Rated New Buy at SocGen; PT 35 euros
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  • TeamViewer SE (TMV TH) +0.6%
  • Freenet (FNTN TH) -0.6%
SDAX:
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  • BayWa (BYW6 TH) +1.4%
  • Schaeffler (SHA TH) +0.8%
  • Adtran Networks SE (ADV TH) -0.5%

WSJ : U.S. v. Google: What to Know About the Biggest Antitrust Trial in 20 Years

U.S. v. Google: What to Know About the Biggest Antitrust Trial in 20 Years
Search engine faces charges of using illegal agreements with partners such as Apple to maintain a monopoly

Google, the country’s dominant search engine, faces its biggest legal threat ever this week when the company goes on civil trial in Washington on allegations of violating U.S. antitrust laws.

The Justice Department’s case is aimed at Google search, and whether the company has used illegal agreements to sideline its rivals and harmed consumers and advertisers in the process. Google pays billions of dollars to Apple, for example, to be the default search engine on the Safari browser.

Alphabet GOOG 0.39%increase; green up pointing triangle-owned Google grew up during an era of more relaxed antitrust enforcement, particularly against technology companies that developed innovative—and often free—ways to explore and use the internet. Efforts to regulate Google and other technology giants have failed to advance in Congress in recent years. In the absence of such rules, the government is trying to use antitrust law to govern competition on the web and put curbs on the internet’s gatekeepers. Here are some crucial questions about the biggest U.S. antitrust trial since the government challenged Microsoft more than 20 years ago.

Why is Google facing an antitrust lawsuit?
The Justice Department and a group of states sued Google three years ago, alleging it illegally maintains a monopoly in online search and related advertising markets. Google has about a 90% market share in search and maintains its dominance through restrictive agreements with browser and phone partners such as Apple, Mozilla, Samsung and Verizon, according to the Justice Department. These deals, which the government says are illegal, make Google the default search engine on most U.S. phones. Google’s separate agreements with Android-based mobile-device manufacturers forbid pre-installing or promoting rival search engines if they opt to take a cut of Google’s search revenue.

What harm comes from Google’s agreements?
The Justice Department argues that Google’s exclusive deals with Apple and others prevent rivals from effectively competing for search business or improving their products. Because Google locks up all the browsers and gets all the queries, other companies such as Microsoft can’t perform enough searches to improve their product, the government says, giving it an anticompetitive scale advantage. Google’s agreements also stifle innovation, the Justice Department says, because the company doesn’t have to improve its search engine to maintain market share. Finally, Google has used its monopoly to raise prices for advertising on its search-results pages, according to the government.

How does Google explain the deals?
Google says its deals with Apple and others promote competition by supplying browser providers with what they want: a single default search option for customers. Apple and Mozilla chose Google because it continues to outstrip rival search engines, and not because they are coerced by revenue sharing or other inducements, it says. Windows users, who don’t have any Google products preloaded on their personal computers, generally opt for Google search because it is the best way to explore the internet, the company says.

Google also points out that its agreements don’t prevent its partners from offering other search engines, because users of Apple’s Safari or Mozilla’s Firefox browsers can change the default search option in their settings. And on Android phones, Google says, consumers can switch away from its preloaded search engine to other products on their own; the fact that few do so isn’t evidence of exclusionary practice, Google says, but of consumers sticking with a superior product.

What happens if Google loses?
In theory, U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta could order Google broken up but legal analysts consider that unlikely. More possible, they say, are new constraints on how Google does business, such as its ability to pay Apple, Samsung and others to be the default search engine on phones. “That seems like the most natural remedy,” said Paul Gallant, a tech-policy analyst at Cowen Washington Research Group. “Breaking up the company over unlawful payments to equipment manufacturers seems unlikely relative to the harm.”

When did the U.S. government last challenge a big monopoly in court?
The government sued Microsoft in 1998 over its attempt to control the market for internet browsers on Windows computers. The Justice Department prevailed in the lawsuit, which created an opening for rivals such as Google and Facebook to flourish in the future, according to the DOJ. The Justice Department says Google has emulated Microsoft’s 1990s playbook to build and maintain its own monopoly in internet search and advertising, while Google says the comparison is inapt.

How long will the trial last and when will a verdict be reached?
The Justice Department has one month to present its case, meaning the states and Google won’t question witnesses until October. Witness testimony is expected to conclude in November, and then the two sides will write briefs to the judge summarizing the case and arguing which way he should rule. Closing arguments and a judgment aren’t expected until next year. If Judge Mehta finds that Google violated the Sherman Antitrust Act, he would schedule a separate trial to decide penalties. The decision is likely to be appealed, so the final outcome might be years away.

Who are the key witnesses in the trial?
While a complete witness list isn’t available yet, Alphabet Chief Executive Sundar Pichai and some Apple executives, such as Eddy Cue, senior vice president of services, are likely to be questioned. The Justice Department is likely to call executives from Microsoft and DuckDuckGo, which operate competing search engines.

Who are the key lawyers working on the case?
Google’s principal trial lawyer is John Schmidtlein, a partner at litigation powerhouse Williams & Connolly. Schmidtlein represented a group of states in part of the 1998 trial against Microsoft. Google Chief Legal Officer Kent Walker and Susan Creighton, a partner at the Silicon Valley law firm Wilson Sonsini, have played key roles in dealing with the Justice Department and shaping trial strategy.

The Justice Department’s top lawyer in the courtroom is Kenneth Dintzer, a 30-year veteran of high-stakes government litigation. Dintzer began his DOJ career in the early 1990s and worked on the early Microsoft investigation. His trial colleagues include Adam Severt, Meagan Bellshaw and David Dahlquist.

FT : US moves ahead with Iran prisoner swap and release of $6bn of frozen oil re

US moves ahead with Iran prisoner swap and release of $6bn of frozen oil revenues
Washington hopes deal will bring progress in nuclear talks and other areas of tension with Tehran

The Biden administration formally notified Congress on Monday that it will release $6bn in frozen Iranian funds and intends to release five Iranian prisoners in a sign that efforts to decrease tensions between the powers may soon bear fruit.

Tehran recently transferred five US citizens from Evin prison to house arrest, kicking off an arrangement that Washington hopes could bring progress on talks about the Islamic republic’s nuclear programme and other areas of tension.

The five American citizens held in Iran could return to the US this month, once Washington releases $6bn in Iranian oil revenue that is frozen in South Korea. Monday’s notification was the first official confirmation that the deal will also include the release of five Iranian prisoners, though the US did not reveal their identities.

“The US has agreed to allow the transfer of funds from South Korea to restricted accounts held in financial institutions in Qatar and the release of five Iranian nationals currently detained in the United States to facilitate the release of five US citizens detained in Iran,” a state department official said on Monday.

US secretary of state Antony Blinken signed a waiver last week that will allow the Biden administration to transfer the funds from South Korea. American officials have said Iran will only be allowed to use the funds to purchase humanitarian goods.

US National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said Blinken’s signing of the waiver is “a procedural step”.

“What is being pursued here is an arrangement wherein we secure the release of five wrongfully held Americans,” Watson said. “This remains a sensitive and ongoing process.”

She said Biden administration officials will brief Congress about the deal this week.

The Americans expected to be released from house arrest in the coming weeks include Emad Shargi, Morad Tahbaz and Siamak Namazi. There are two other prisoners whose identities have not been released.

Since 2018 when then-president Donald Trump pulled the US out of the 2015 nuclear deal, Iran has been unable to access tens of billions of dollars of its oil funds held by foreign central banks.

Western diplomatic efforts to address Iran’s nuclear programme have repeatedly stalled but have picked up pace in recent months.

Republican lawmakers criticised the developments on Monday, in a hint of their future opposition to any nuclear arrangement should the effort proceed.

“This creates dangerous incentives to capture Americans abroad, provides Iran a cash windfall as it continues to attack US troops & sell drones to Russia,” Jim Risch, the top Republican on the Senate foreign relations committee, said on X, formerly Twitter.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 12th of September 2

>>> Up
* Beiersdorf PT Raised to 152 euros from 140 euros at Jefferies
* Benchmark Holdings Raised to Buy at Investec; PT 42 pence
* Marks & Spencer Raised to Reduce at AlphaValue/Baader
* Nestle Raised to Hold at SocGen

>>> Down
* PolyPeptide Group Cut to Sell at Citi; PT 18 Swiss francs

>>> Initiation
* 2020 Bulkers Rated New Buy at Nordea; PT 121 kroner
* Belships Rated New Buy at Nordea; PT 23 kroner
* Carbios SACA Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 51 euros
* CTP Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 16 euros
* Duerr Rated New Buy at SocGen; PT 35 euros
* Epiroc Rated New Underweight at Barclays; PT 165 kronor
* Golden Ocean Rated New Buy at Nordea; PT 120 kroner
* Jet2 Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 1,800 pence
* Metso Oyj Reinstated Overweight at Barclays; PT 12 euros
* Qiagen Rated New Outperform at Baird; PT 46.51 euros

>>> Call
* CTP New Overweight at JPMorgan, Well Positioned in Growth Market
* JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Trims Overweight Bonds in Favor of Cash
* Metso Overweight, Epiroc, Sandvik Both Underweight at Barclays
* Nestle Upgraded at SocGen on Price, Improvement in Some Areas

>>> What to look at today - 12th of Septembert 2023

European stock futures edged higher as traders awaited jobs data from the UK that will help determine Bank of England’s policy rate path. Key data from Germany is also due. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.2% pointing to a third day of gains for the regional benchmark. The British pound and the euro were little changed. There’s now enough evidence that Britain’s labor market is cooling, according to Ana Andrade at Bloomberg Economics. That, however, may not be enough for the BOE’s Monetary Policy Committee to contemplate a pause just yet. “That’s because the threat to the central bank’s 2% inflation target from strong pay growth remains too high,” she wrote in a note. Germany’s economic recovery is in spotlight as well with the release of the ZEW survey, with sentiment likely weighed down by tighter monetary conditions. Investors will also keep a close eye on Apple Inc. as it’s set to unveil new iPhone 15 lineup later Tuesday. The tech titan is looking to snap several straight quarters of sluggish sales — its longest slump in two decades — and get consumers excited about upgrading again with new features. Meanwhile, stocks in Asia fluctuated and Chinese shares were back in the red. Gains triggered by news on Country Garden Holdings Co. — which secured payment extension approval from its bondholders — were not enough to keep the positive sentiment going for long. US stock futures were marginally lower after tech shares led the way forward Monday, with the Nasdaq 100 rising 1.2%. In currencies, the yen fell and the greenback steadied after falling by the most in two months. The yuan was little changed after China’s central bank set its daily fixing rate at below 7.20 versus the dollar, another sign that it won’t tolerate excessive yuan weakness.  The Japanese government saw a solid demand during the auction of its five-year bond Tuesday, with a higher-than-expected cut-off price. The consumer-price index report Wednesday will provide the latest insight into how much further the Fed may need to go to pull inflation back toward its target. Monthly inflation is expected to accelerate to 0.6% in August, while core is seen stable at 0.2%, according to economists’ estimates. Meanwhile, some 26% of respondents in the latest MLIV Pulse survey say they plan to decrease their exposure to the S&P 500 over the next month. That’s double the amount of those who plan to buy. Only 13% of respondents said they might increase exposure. In commodities, oil edged up, trading near the highest level this year before reports that may offer further insight into the market’s balances. Gold was little changed.  Bitcoin rose after dropping to the lowest since June on Monday, as the world’s largest digital token formed a so-called death cross pattern — in which the 50-day moving average falls below its 200-day marker. Such a crossover typically signals a loss of short-term momentum and further selling pressure ahead. US After Hours ADEA +5.8% after resolving litigation with NVDA; CASY +2.8% up on earnings; SGHT -25% down on guidance, ORCL -9.1% falling after AugQ earnings; CVS -0.8% slipping on reaffirmed FY23 outlook.

Nikkei +0.79% Hang Seng -0.09% CSI -0.22% Shanghai -0.23% Shenzen -0.16%

Eur$ 1.0739 CNH 7.3073 CNY 7.2907 JPY 146.80 GBP 1.2512 CHF 0.8914 RUB 95.6818 TRY 26.8795 WTI$ 87.64 Gold 1,921 BTC 25,765 +2.72% ETH 1,580+2.56%

S&P -0.11% Nasdaq -0.08% EuroStoxx +0.14% FTSE +0.15% Dax +0.13% SMI +0.03%

Macro :
- JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Trims Overweight Bonds in Favor of Cash
- ECB Rate Key to Italy Govvies, Banks' €1.6 Trillion 'Doom Loop'

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- HLAG GY ; Kuehne Says Hapag-Lloyd Could Be Part of Possible HHLA Deal: FAZ
- ITP FP : Interparfums 1H Operating Profit Beats Estimates
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- SZU GY : Suedzucker Unit Drops Plan to Lift French Sugar Output: Reuters
- SSYS US : Stratasys Board Rejects Revised Offer From 3D Systems (1)
- TIT IM : KKR Launches Search for Head of Telecom Italia Network Unit
- TTE FP : TotalEnergies to Extend €1.99/L French Fuel Price Cap
- TKA GY : Hastings, Thyssenkrupp Agree to Expand Terms of Offtake Contract
- VK FP : Vallourec Aims to Distribute Dividends From 2025

FT : Credit hedge funds profit as companies face soaring borrowing costs

Credit hedge funds profit as companies face soaring borrowing costs
Cheaper debt with higher yields offers distressed debt-focused funds opportunities to increase returns

Credit hedge funds that focus on distressed debt are making bumper profits this year as the rise in borrowing costs hits weaker companies. 

Central bank rate increases have put pressure on some small and medium-sized corporate borrowers considered riskier credit, forcing them to offer significantly higher rates to tempt potential lenders.

It has also made existing riskier debt cheaper, increasing yields and offering the opportunity for better potential returns.

After a more challenging 2022, the Eurekahedge distressed debt hedge fund index was up 5.9 per cent on Friday, the highest performing strategy of the year so far.

“The higher for longer [interest rate] environment that we’re in, has created attractive opportunities in the credit spectrum,” said Danielle Poli, portfolio manager and managing director at $172bn credit investor Oaktree. 

Analysis from the special situations team at credit fund Alcentra shows that about €120bn in European bonds and loans are trading at distressed levels, above interest rates of 12 per cent, double the roughly €50bn or €60bn seen in 2019. The analysis only considered debt with an issue size above €100m. 

Richard Deitz’s hedge fund VR Capital returned 18.2 per cent by the end of July, making it one of the year’s best-performing funds, according to a person who has seen the numbers. The fund has $4.9bn in assets under management and mainly focuses on distressed companies in emerging markets. 

Jimmy Levin’s Sculptor has seen his Credit Opportunities fund, which manages $1.4bn in assets, return 8 per cent to the end of August. About two-thirds of the fund is invested in corporate debt, while the remaining third is invested in structured credit vehicles that contain loans. 

The better performance marks a reversal from last year, when credit investments were hit by falling bond prices as central banks raised rates. VR and Sculptor were down 5.7 and 4.1 per cent, respectively, last year.

“Last year, performance was heavily impacted by the increase in rates, which led to credit issues and a lot of forced selling across the board,” said Allan Schweitzer, a portfolio manager at credit hedge fund Beach Point.

Hedge funds have also made money by providing loans to companies struggling to borrow from banks.

A $5.5bn fund from King Street is up 4.75 per cent to August 25, with part of the performance driven by lending opportunities to smaller companies backed by private equity firms. 

While King Street declined to comment on the performance numbers, Paul Goldschmid, partner and co-porfolio manager, said: “The debt market for sponsor-owned single B or triple C rated debt has generally been closed for 18 months to help fund their negative free cash flow issues.”

The tougher fundraising environment has given hedge funds much more negotiating power to ask for interest rates of 14 per cent or higher, while building in tougher covenants to ensure they are repaid. 

“I think this is a golden age for fresh credit because legacy credit has a lot of flaws in it, not least a lack of covenants,” said Stuart Fiertz, president of London-based Cheyne Capital.

“We can come in with very good covenants and shape the transaction any way we like.”

FT : US companies opt for short-term debt in bet that yields have peaked

US companies opt for short-term debt in bet that yields have peaked
Corporate bond maturities fall to lowest in a decade with some investors also preferring higher yields of shorter-term debt

Borrowers in the $10tn US corporate bond market are shying away from longer-term debt in a bet that soaring borrowing costs are unlikely to last.

Corporate bonds issued so far in 2023 have come with an average 10 years to maturity — the lowest figure in a decade, according to data from LSEG that spans both high and low-grade debt.

With investment-grade issuance hitting its highest daily level since 2020 last week, the shortened maturities underscore how companies are adapting their funding strategies to a backdrop of drastically elevated interest rates. Many are hoping that borrowing costs will have fallen when they come to refinance their shorter-dated debt.

“For the most part, companies are preferring to borrow for three, five, seven or 10 years much more than borrowing for 30 years,” said Matt Brill, head of investment-grade credit at $1.5tn-in-assets fund firm Invesco. 

“I think that’s just a function of how expensive it’s gotten for companies to borrow versus where it was just a year-and-a-half or so ago,” he added. “You don’t want to be paying this high coupon for any longer than you have to.”

Debt issued in the $8.6tn investment-grade bond market has had an average maturity of almost 10 and a half years so far in 2023, the lowest year-to-date number since the global financial crisis. 

The trend is starker for borrowers in the $1.3tn junk market, where maturities have dropped from close to seven years and seven months in 2022 to six in 2023 — the shortest average tenor in records going back to 1990.


The shorter maturities come as US interest rates have climbed from near-zero early last year to a range of 5.25 to 5.5 per cent. In turn, investment-grade yields have shot to almost 6 per cent, from lows of 1.9 per cent in late 2020 when Covid-era stimulus was still washing through the financial system. 

“Issuers are trying to stay shorter on the curve because absolute rates are so much higher,” said Maureen O’Connor, head of Wells Fargo’s investment-grade syndicate.

Junk yields now stand at 8.6 per cent on average, up from lows of 4.5 per cent in 2021 — a step-up in costs that analysts say has sparked both shorter-dated maturities and more asset-backed issuance in a bid to reduce interest payments. “Secured” debt, which pledges assets to lenders, has made up a record share of overall high-yield borrowing this year.


However, relatively few companies urgently need to refinance because many used the cheap money on offer at the start of the pandemic to push out debt payments. Overall bond issuance fell last year and is down again in 2023, with investment-grade sales 5 per cent lower at $942bn. 

Junk bond issuance has climbed by a third to $108bn this year, compared with a particularly weak 2022. 

Investors are divided over whether the Fed will raise rates one more time this year, but expect the central bank to gradually start cutting next year.

“I think most corporations feel like they’ll have a better opportunity to borrow for cheaper — meaning yields will be lower — in 2024 or 2025,” said Brill.

However, some market participants said shorter-dated borrowing reflected investor demand more than companies’ preferences.

Unusually, the Treasury yield curve has been inverted this year — meaning near-term bonds yield more than longer-dated bonds. So while borrowers issuing longer-dated debt will pay a much higher coupon than a few years ago, the cost may be less than for near-term debt.

Richard Zogheb, global head of debt capital markets at Citi, said there was a “push-pull” relationship between investors and companies, in which investors were drawn to shorter maturities, while, conversely, companies would prefer cheaper, longer-term debt. 

“The investor base is saying, ‘if I can get five-year paper that yields better than 10-year paper, I’ll take the five-year paper’.”

“What we’ve ended up having to do is structure transactions with a short component and a long component and try to push the investor base into the longer component.”

However, Dominique Toublan at Barclays said maturity preferences depended on the type of investor. Some buyers of junk bonds, who are taking on additional credit risk, might favour the visibility of short-term debt, he said, while long-term investors such as pension funds “would love to be able to lock in these yields” offered by higher grade companies.

“These are yields they haven’t seen in 15 years,” he added.

FT : World at ‘beginning of end’ of fossil fuel era, IEA says

World at ‘beginning of end’ of fossil fuel era, IEA says
Global demand for oil, natural gas and coal expected to peak before end of 2030

The world is at “the beginning of the end” of the fossil fuel era, according to the leading global energy watchdog, which for the first time has forecast that demand for oil, natural gas and coal will all peak before 2030.

New projections by the International Energy Agency forecast that the consumption of the three major fossil fuels will start to decline this decade because of the rapid growth of renewable energy and the spread of electric vehicles.

“We are witnessing the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era and we have to prepare ourselves for the next era,” IEA head Fatih Birol said of the projections, due to be published next month in the body’s World Energy Outlook. “It shows that climate policies do work.”

In an op-ed for the Financial Times, Birol hailed a “historic turning point” but called on policymakers to do more to speed up the energy transition and reduce emissions, despite political obstacles to decarbonisation.

Governments across the world have increased investments in renewables in response to climate change and the energy crisis stoked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but many have faced a backlash over the expense during a cost of living crisis.

The IEA, which is primarily funded by the OECD, said last year that fossil fuel demand in aggregate could peak around 2030. But it has now brought forward its projections because the rollout of renewable technologies has accelerated in the past 12 months.

Birol also emphasised “structural shifts” in China’s economy as it moves from heavy industry to less energy-intensive industries and services.

“In the last 10 years China accounted for about one-third of the growth in natural gas demand globally and two-thirds of the growth in oil demand,” Birol said. “Solar, wind and nuclear power will be eating up the potential growth of coal in China.”

The IEA chief said policymakers had to be “nimble” to adapt to the energy transition and argued it could be accelerated through “stronger climate policies”, despite concerns in western capitals about voters’ tolerance for rapid change.

The US and EU have launched ambitious programmes to support the growth of renewable energy, but have faced criticism from political opponents over costs.

The head of the European parliament, Roberta Metsola, warned this month that Brussels’s climate policies risked driving voters towards populist parties, while in the UK the government has backed new oil and gas drilling and criticised the expansion of London’s ultra-low emission zone.

Birol said that large new fossil fuel projects ran the risk of becoming so-called stranded assets, while acknowledging that some investment in oil and gas supplies would be needed to account for declines at existing fields.

Both he and the IEA have faced attacks from large fossil fuel producers who warn under-investment in oil and gas supplies risks future energy crises if forecasts for a peak in consumption prove too optimistic.

Opec, the oil producers’ cartel, accused the IEA in April of stoking “volatility” in markets through its calls to stop investing in new oil developments.

Birol said: “Oil and gas companies may not only be misjudging public opinion . . . they may well be misjudging the market if they expect further growth of oil and gas demand across this decade.

“New large scale fossil fuel projects carry not only major climate risks but major financial risks,” he added.

Birol called on policymakers not to become complacent, warning that emissions needed to fall rapidly after a peak in the mid-2020s to have any chance of limiting global warming to 1.5C degrees.

“We expect mid this decade global emissions will peak, but it is still far from reaching our climate goals even with additional policies,” said Birol. “We can speed this up if we put the right new policies in place . . . It is in our hands.”

FT : Peak fossil fuel demand will happen this decade

Peak fossil fuel demand will happen this decade
But the decline in oil, gas and coal will not be steep enough to limit global warming to 1.5C

There’s a taboo in the traditional energy sector against suggesting that demand for the three fossil fuels — oil, gas and coal — could go into permanent decline. Despite recurring talk of peak oil and peak coal over the years, both fuels are hitting all-time highs, making it easier to push back against any assertions that they could soon be on the wane.

But according to new projections from the International Energy Agency, this age of seemingly relentless growth is set to come to an end this decade, bringing with it significant implications for the global energy sector and the fight against climate change.

Every year, the IEA’s World Energy Outlook maps out potential pathways the global energy system could take in the coming decades to help inform decision-making. This year’s report, to be released next month, shows the world is on the cusp of a historic turning point. Based only on today’s policy settings by governments worldwide — even without any new climate policies — demand for each of the three fossil fuels is set to hit a peak in the coming years. This is the first time that a peak in demand is visible for each fuel this decade — earlier than many people anticipated.

These remarkable shifts will bring forward the peak in global greenhouse gas emissions. They are primarily driven by the spectacular growth of clean energy technologies such as solar panels and electric vehicles, the structural shifts in China’s economy and the ramifications of the global energy crisis.

Global demand for coal has remained stubbornly high for the past decade. But it is now set to peak in the next few years, with big investments drying up outside China as solar and wind dominate the expansion of electricity systems. Even in China, the world’s largest coal consumer, the impressive growth of renewables and nuclear power, alongside a slower economy, point to a decrease in coal use soon.

Some pundits suggested global oil demand might have peaked after it plunged during the pandemic. The IEA was wary of such premature calls, but our latest projections show that the growth of electric vehicles around the world, especially in China, means oil demand is on course to peak before 2030. Electric buses and two- and three-wheelers are also growing strongly, especially in emerging economies, further eating into demand.

The “Golden Age of Gas”, which we called in 2011, is nearing an end, with demand in advanced economies set to fall away later this decade. This is the result of renewables increasingly outmatching gas for producing electricity, the rise of heat pumps and Europe’s accelerated shift away from gas following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Peaks for the three fossil fuels are a welcome sight, showing that the shift to cleaner and more secure energy systems is speeding up and that efforts to avoid the worst effects of climate change are making headway. But there are some important issues to bear in mind.

For starters, the projected declines in demand we see based on today’s policy settings are nowhere near steep enough to put the world on a path to limiting global warming to 1.5C. That will require significantly stronger and faster policy action by governments.

Demand for the different fuels is set to vary considerably among regions. The drop in advanced economies will be partially offset by continued growth in some emerging and developing economies, particularly for gas. But the global trends are clear: low-emissions electricity and fuels, as well as energy efficiency improvements, are increasingly taking care of the world’s rising energy needs.

The declines in demand also won’t be linear. Although fossil fuels are set to hit their peaks this decade in structural terms, there can still be spikes, dips and plateaus on the way down. For example, heatwaves and droughts can cause temporary jumps in coal demand by pushing up electricity use while choking hydropower output. 

And even as demand for fossil fuels falls, energy security challenges will remain as suppliers adjust to the changes. The peaks in demand we see based on today’s policy settings don’t remove the need for investment in oil and gas supply, as the natural declines from existing fields can be very steep. At the same time, they undercut the calls from some quarters to increase spending and underline the economic and financial risks of major new oil and gas projects — on top of their glaring risks for the climate.

With today’s policies already bringing the fossil fuel peaks into sight, decision makers need to be nimble. The clean energy transition may well accelerate even further through stronger climate policies. But the energy world is changing fast and for the better.