>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 5th of October 2023 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Abrdn plc Raised to Buy at Panmure Gordon; PT 250 pence
* Arjo Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 59 kronor
* Alstom Reiterates with Overweight, price target: €36 at JPMorgan Chase and Co
* Bachem Raised to Buy at Research Partners; PT 85 Swiss francs
* Carlsberg Raised to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Heineken Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Lonza Raised to Hold at Intron Health; PT 465 Swiss francs
* Pernod Ricard Raised to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* SMA Solar Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF (+)

>>> Down
* Bakkafrost Cut to Hold at DNB Markets; PT 525 kroner
* Britvic Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Gresham House Cut to Hold at Panmure Gordon; PT 1,105 pence
* Marriott Vacations Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $112
* Verbund Cut to Hold at Erste Group; PT 79.50 euros
* WithSecure Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 1.10 euros

>>> Initiation
* Elekta Reinstated Underweight at Barclays; PT 70 kronor
* Delfingen Ind Rated New Buy at Gilbert Dupont; PT 70 euros (+)
* Mandatum Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT 3.30 euros (+)
* Sandoz Group Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley
* Sandoz Group Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan (+)
* Straumann Reinstated Overweight at Barclays; PT 153 Swiss francs
* VBG Group Rated New Buy at Nordea; PT 270 kronor
* Vodafone Resumed Neutral at Citi

>>> Call
* Deutsche Bank Strategists See Subdued Earnings Season in Europe (+)
* Imperial Brands Shares Should See Some Relief: Morgan Stanley (+)
* Lonza Loses Only Sell as Intron Sees Risks Now Better Reflected
* Only a Stocks Crash Can Rescue the Bond Market, Barclays Says

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Imperial Brands (ITB TH) +2.1%
    • Imperial Brands Announces Further £1.1b Share Buyback
  • Bawag (0B2 TH) +1.8%
  • Orsted (D2G TH) +1.5%
  • Adyen (1N8 TH) +1.3%
  • Nel (D7G TH) +1.3%
  • Tomra (TMRA TH) +1.3%
  • ASML (ASME TH) +1%
  • Evotec SE (EVT TH) +0.9%
    • Evotec and partners announce the launch of 65LAB to advance drug discovery and the creation of new therapeutics companies in Singapore
  • Siemens Energy (ENR TH) +0.9%
  • Intesa Sanpaolo (IES TH) +0.9%
  • Rolls-Royce (RRU TH) -0.3%
  • Shell (R6C0 TH) -0.3%
  • Eni (ENI TH) -0.4%
    • Saudi Decision Keeps Tighter Narrative as Oil Falls Below $90
  • Knorr-Bremse (KBX TH) -0.5%
  • Verbund (OEWA TH) -0.6%
    • Ruling Against Verbund Price Hike Upheld by Higher Court: APA
  • TotalEnergies (TOTB TH) -0.6%
  • Acciona (AJ3 TH) -0.8%
  • HelloFresh (HFG TH) -2.1%
  • Gerresheimer (GXI TH) -3.9%
    • Gerresheimer 3Q Adjusted Ebitda Meets Estimates
  • Alstom (AOMD TH) -22%
    • Alstom Cash Flow, Delayed Orders Seen as Key Focus: Street Wrap

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Vonovia (VNA TH) +1.2%
    • Germany’s Property Meltdown Claims Its First Big Victims
  • Siemens Energy (ENR TH) +1.1%
  • Zalando (ZAL TH) +1%
  • BASF (BAS TH) +0.8%
  • Deutsche Telekom (DTE TH) +0.8%
MDAX:
  • SMA Solar (S92 TH) +18%
    • SMA Solar Boosts FY Sales Forecast
  • Nordex (NDX1 TH) +2.2%
  • Evotec SE (EVT TH) +2%
  • Lanxess (LXS TH) +1.3%
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) +1.1%
  • HelloFresh (HFG TH) -1.1%
  • Gerresheimer (GXI TH) -3.9%
    • Gerresheimer 3Q Adjusted Ebitda Meets Estimates
SDAX:
  • PVA TePla (TPE TH) +1.9%
  • Heidelberger Druck (HDD TH) +1.6%
  • Deutz (DEZ TH) +1.5%
  • Borussia Dortmund (BVB TH) +1.2%
  • Varta (VAR1 TH) +1%
  • Grenke (GLJ TH) -3.6%
    • Grenke 3Q Leasing New Business Volume €591.1M

>>> What to look at today - 5th of October 2023

Shares rose in Asia after stocks and bonds rallied on Wall Street, bringing some relief to financial markets after a series of punishing losses. Traders’ focus now turns to Friday’s US jobs data. Equity benchmarks in Australia, Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea all advanced, adding a bullish pulse to region after a gauge of Asian equities fell into a technical correction Wednesday. Oil ticked higher, paring losses from its steepest one-day drop in a year. The dollar weakened for a second day. US equity futures held in tight ranges in Asia after the S&P 500 climbed 0.8% in New York, its biggest gain in almost three weeks, and the Nasdaq 100 advanced 1.5%, its best day since August. Mainland China markets remain shut for a week-long holiday. The easing of Treasury yields was helped by economic data that prompted traders to scale back forecasts for Federal Reserve tightening this year. US companies added the fewest number of jobs since the start of 2021 in September, according to a survey from the ADP Research Institute in collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab. A separate report from the Institute for Supply Management showed the services sector pulled back modestly last month to the lowest level this year. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls figures are forecast to show hiring slowed in September. Bill Gross, co-founder and former chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., said retail investors that hold bonds in exchange-traded funds were adding to the pressure in Treasury markets over the past week.  “We are seeing a little bit of oversold market” as 10-year Treasury yields approach 5%, he said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. The dollar fell against all its Group-of-10 peers, with the yen strengthening much as 0.6%. Traders had speculated about official Japanese intervention in the market Tuesday when the currency spiked higher after touching 150 per dollar. However, early indications show that may not have been the case. Chinese property developers are also in focus as Sunac China Holdings Ltd. faces court proceedings Thursday on its multibillion-dollar offshore debt restructuring plan. In commodities, West Texas Intermediate futures were moderately higher after slumping 5.6% Wednesday to settle below $85 a barrel. The decline reflected concern over flagging demand for the commodity as higher interest rates and a strong dollar weigh on the global economy.  US After Hours BB +4.9% to separate IoT and Cybersecurity units; CLX -2.2% lower on guidance as cybersecurity attack caused wide-scale disruptions; CMBM -20.8% on lowered guidance.

Nikkei +1,59% Hang Seng +0,61% CSI Close Shanghai Close Shenzen Close

Eur$ 1,0523 CNH 7,3126 CNY 7,2980 JPY 148,45 GBP 1,2155 CHF 0,9141 RUB 100,0197 TRY 27,5697 WTI$ 84,64 Gold 1,826 BTC 27,700 ETH 1,645

S&P -0,06% Nasdaq -0,05% EuroStoxx +0,48% FTSE +0,41% Dax +0,41% SMI +0,42%

Macro :
- Oaktree Bids €1 Billion to Fund Italian Soccer League TV Channel
- Only a Stocks Crash Can Rescue the Bond Market, Barclays Says
- Japan Moves Up Tomahawk Missile Purchase Due to Security Worries
- Top City Boss Warns Pay Is Causing London to Lose War for Talent
- Milan’s Push to Lure World’s Wealthy Stokes Boom and Backlash

Keep an eye on :
- ADJ GY : Adler Group in ‘Advanced’ Talks With Potential Auditors
- AKRBP NO : Aker BP Reports Preliminary 3Q Equity Production of 449.8 Mboepd
- ALO FP : Alstom Warns on Cash Flow Due to Inventory, Delayed Orders
- AAPL US : Apple Considered Switch to Search Engine DuckDuckGo From Google
- T US : AT&T Is Exploring Options for Multibillion-Dollar DirecTV Stake
- AV/ LN : Aviva Shares Rise After Betaville ‘Uncooked Alert’ Mention
- BG AV : Bawag Group Gets ECB Approval to Buy Back EU175m Shares
- CQST SS : Castellum Sells Properties for SEK900m
- DAE SW : Datwyler: Volker Cwielong to Succeed Lambrecht as CEO in April
- DMRE GY : Apollo-Backed German Landlord Gears Up For Talks With Creditors
- DKSH SW : DKSH Converts CHF 150m Credit Line to Sustainability-Linked Loan
- EBS AV : Erste Bank Taps Luminor CEO Peter Bosek as New Chief Executive
- XOM US : Exxon Sees $2.1 Billion Earnings Lift From Oil Prices, Refining
- GLJ GY : Grenke 3Q Leasing New Business Volume EU591.1M
- FNAC FP : Fnac Darty, Ceva Logistics to Create Venture for E-Commerce
- GXI GY : Gerresheimer 3Q Adjusted Ebitda Meets Estimates
- GOOGL US : Apple Considered Switch to Search Engine DuckDuckGo From Google
- IMB LN : Imperial Brands Says Performance is in Line With Guidance
- IPH FP : Innate Pharma Says FDA Puts Lacutamab IND on Partial Hold
- KRN GY : Deutsche Boerse Says Krones to Replace SUSE in SDAX
- MTRO LN : Metro Bank Hires Morgan Stanley to Explore Capital Raise Options, Metro Bank in Talks For Up to £600m Capital Raise: FT
- MITRA BB : Mithra Says Oct. 30 Meetings Called to Consider Routine Matters
- NFLX US : Actors, Hollywood Studios Conclude Talks, Will Meet Again Friday
- NOVN SW : Novartis to Present New Pluvicto, Kisqali Data at Upcoming ESMO
- PNDORA DC : Pandora Sees Organic Growth of 7-9% CAGR From 2023-2026
- PRY IM : Prysmian Targets Adj. Ebitda of About €2 Billion in 2027
- RNO FP : Renault to Hold Ampere Capital Market Day on Nov. 15
- Renk IPO : German Gearbox Maker Renk Postpones IPO
- RIVN US : Rivian Prelim 3Q Revenue $1.29B to $1.33B, Est. $1.3B
- RIVN US : Rivian Sinks After EV Maker Plans Convertible Note Offering
- SCR FP : Scor Buys Back 9m Shares From Covea, to Sell Shares to BNP
- SAF FP : GE, Safran JV Identify 126 Jet Engines That Contain Fake Parts
- SHEL LN : Shell CEO Plans Town Hall for Staff Amid Anxiety Over Oil Shift
- S92 GY : SMA Solar Boosts FY Sales Forecast
- SMV LN : PEXA Group Proposes to Acquire Smoove for 54 Pence a Share
- SUSE GY : Deutsche Boerse Says Krones to Replace SUSE in SDAX
- TE FP : Technip Energies Gets Contracts From Galp for Portugal Refinery
- TTE FP : Suncor to Buy TotalEnergies Canadian Operations for C$1.5b
- UBI FP :
- VER AV : Ruling Against Verbund Price Hike Upheld by Higher Court: APA

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 5th of October 2023

>>> Up
* Abrdn plc Raised to Buy at Panmure Gordon; PT 250 pence
* Arjo Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 59 kronor
* Alstom Reiterates with Overweight, price target: €36 at JPMorgan Chase and Co
* Bachem Raised to Buy at Research Partners; PT 85 Swiss francs
* Lonza Raised to Hold at Intron Health; PT 465 Swiss francs

>>> Down
* Bakkafrost Cut to Hold at DNB Markets; PT 525 kroner
* Gresham House Cut to Hold at Panmure Gordon; PT 1,105 pence
* Marriott Vacations Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $112
* Verbund Cut to Hold at Erste Group; PT 79.50 euros
* WithSecure Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 1.10 euros

>>> Initiation
* Elekta Reinstated Underweight at Barclays; PT 70 kronor
* Sandoz Group Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley
* Straumann Reinstated Overweight at Barclays; PT 153 Swiss francs
* VBG Group Rated New Buy at Nordea; PT 270 kronor
* Vodafone Resumed Neutral at Citi

>>> Call
* Lonza Loses Only Sell as Intron Sees Risks Now Better Reflected
* Only a Stocks Crash Can Rescue the Bond Market, Barclays Says

TechCrunch : Was FTX an empire ‘built on lies’ or a startup that ‘grew too quick

Was FTX an empire ‘built on lies’ or a startup that ‘grew too quickly’?
Inside opening statements at Sam Bankman-Fried’s criminal trial

The criminal trial of Sam Bankman-Fried, former cryptocurrency magnate, completed its second day on Wednesday. The prosecution and defense both gave opening statements and interviewed the first two witnesses, including a customer of FTX and Bankman-Fried’s former friend and ex-Alameda and FTX employee Adam Yedidia.

The prosecution painted Bankman-Fried as someone who knowingly committed fraud to achieve great wealth, power and influence. The defense countered that Bankman-Fried acted in good faith, never meant to commit fraud or steal, and basically got in over his head.

The prosecution: Bankman-Fried’s empire was ‘built on lies’
In his opening argument, just half past noon, prosecutor Thane Rhen began by painting a picture. “One year ago, Bankman-Fired was on top of the world.”

He arguably was.

Bankman-Fried was worth billions of dollars, living in a $35 million penthouse with friends and co-workers; he had two massive businesses, a crypto exchange, FTX and crypto hedge fund, Alameda Research (both of which have since gone bankrupt).

“He had wealth, he had power, he had influence,” Rhen said. “But all of it was built on lies.”

Rhen alleged that Bankman-Fried “took money he didn’t have” to build an empire. Rhen repeated several times, and loudly, that Bankman-Fried stole “billions of dollars” from FTX customers so he could spend the money on “lavish houses for himself, his parents, and his friends,” gain influence in Washington and meet celebrities.

FT : Shell LNG push puts clean energy strategy in spotlight

Shell LNG push puts clean energy strategy in spotlight
UK producer insists it is sticking to net zero goals even as it ramps up output in its most lucrative business

At Shell’s first capital markets day under new chief executive Wael Sawan this summer, the UK energy group drew the ire of environmentalists for its plans to hold oil output steady rather than allowing it to decline.

But the meeting also underlined the company’s greater dependence on another carbon-emitting fuel, liquefied natural gas, with executives telling investors that boosting output from LNG assets was a “top priority” and outlining plans to invest $4bn a year in LNG projects until 2025.

Gas has become Shell’s biggest money-spinner. Its integrated gas division, which is dominated by LNG activities, was the largest contributor to group profits in four of the past five years and accounted for just over half the company’s $14.7bn in earnings in the first half of 2023.

The question is whether the fuel remains the right focus for a company that Sawan insists is sticking to a strategy launched by his predecessor Ben van Beurden to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 through a ramp-up in clean energy investment.

“They are moving further and further away from me being comfortable that they have a genuinely compelling view for what this business should look like in 25 years’ time,” said one top 20 shareholder.

Increasing LNG volumes was a “pragmatic” strategy for the current environment, the shareholder said, noting that demand for natural gas in a decarbonising world was likely to outlast demand for other fossil fuels, particularly as Europe weans itself off Russian gas and Asia seeks alternatives to coal.

But in the longer term, prioritising LNG over clean energy could be a risk, the shareholder added. “We would like Shell to be doing a lot more around developing and articulating and then committing to a genuinely compelling energy transition strategy.”

Other shareholders, particularly those based in the US, are more positive about Shell’s commitment to its most lucrative business, according to Oswald Clint, an analyst at Bernstein.

“Investors can see that the demand is there, it is most likely multi-decade, and if you’re the biggest player in the market, you own the space, why not add to it,” he said.


Shell’s focus on LNG dates back to the very start of the industry. The company shipped the first ever commercial cargo of the fuel from Algeria to the UK in 1964 and later that decade was instrumental in developing the Asian LNG market as a partner in Brunei LNG.

Before then gas was largely considered an unwanted byproduct of oil production and was usually flared on site. Shell’s especially large portfolio of oil-producing assets gave it a particular “problem” of what to do with associated gas, according to one former senior executive in Shell’s gas business.

The solution was to liquefy the gas by cooling it to -162C, which shrinks it to one six-hundredth of its original volume and renders it economic to ship the fuel around the globe.

The trade has grown from 100mn tonnes per year in 2000 to almost 400mn tonnes in 2022, making the market worth $450bn.

Last year Shell moved 66mn tonnes of LNG — 16.5 per cent of the global total and second only to state-owned QatarEnergy.

“It is the only upstream business where Shell has a very clear lead over the rest of the industry,” the former senior executive said.

Its LNG sales represent about 23 per cent of cash flow from operations, according to Citibank — more than for any other western energy major. At the investor day in June, it said it would increase those volumes by 20-30 per cent by 2030.

“Fundamentally, Sawan believes that LNG produces better returns than renewables,” said one former Shell executive who worked with Sawan for more than two decades.

The new CEO, who rose to prominence at the company through his work on gas projects in Qatar, grew up “through the gas business”, the former executive added. “He is a big believer in the business and also a big believer in the trading model.”


Shell’s LNG dominance is partly a result of its $54bn acquisition in 2016 of gas specialist BG Group, a significant producer and trader of LNG that bought the fuel from a wide range of suppliers across the world for resale. In 2015, before the BG deal completed, Shell sold 44mn tonnes of the fuel.

The acquisition, following the purchase two years earlier of a smaller LNG business from Spain’s Repsol, also gave Shell the revenue stream it needed to give up parts of its oil portfolio. The divestments included its Canadian oil sands business and its exploration activities in the Arctic — both of which had attracted intense criticism from environmental campaigners.

Shortly before stepping down, Van Beurden told the Financial Times last year that the acquisitions allowed him to do the oil sands deal, which he said would otherwise have been “too good of a cash engine to give up on”.

“We could forget about betting on the Arctic because we had a whole new LNG business to work with,” he said.

Today, the UK group has stakes in LNG projects from Australia and Nigeria to Trinidad and Tobago, and also trades millions of tonnes a year from other producers. Last year it produced 30mn tonnes and traded a further 36mn tonnes from other producers.

Shell argues that LNG has a key role to play in the energy transition. When burnt, the gas produces half the carbon dioxide of coal for the same amount of energy. On the same basis, it generates 30 per cent less carbon dioxide than oil.

Still, the fuel emits carbon, meaning Shell is likely to have to soften its existing emission reduction targets to reflect the increased investment in LNG when it updates its energy transition strategy in March, the top 20 shareholder said.

“I don’t think it’s really possible for them to hit the current targets and to do all the things that they’ve said they’re going to do in terms of the way they’re going to spend their capex budget,” the shareholder said.

Asked whether Shell could keep boosting LNG volumes and still meet its net zero targets, the company said the world would need “more LNG to enable a balanced energy transition” but that work needed to be done to lower the emissions associated with the fuel, citing as an example a green, synthetic version of the gas that is under development.

“Until that happens, accurately measuring and reporting emissions across the LNG value chain and using quality carbon credits to compensate for them is an important step towards addressing emissions,” said Steve Hill, executive vice-president of Shell Energy.

Michael Coffin, a former BP geologist who is now the head of oil, gas and mining at the think-tank Carbon Tracker, believes Shell should be moving away from fossil fuels altogether.

“Global society needs to accelerate the investment in renewable power to displace coal directly, rather than developing assets that increase society’s lock-in to fossil fuels,” he said.

However, rather than abandoning LNG more companies are trying to follow Shell’s lead.

“There are people nibbling at their heels,” said Bernstein’s Clint, noting that Equinor, ExxonMobil and Chevron were signing new LNG offtake agreements with producers.

Frank Harris, head of global LNG consulting at Wood Mackenzie, stressed that the size and diversity of Shell’s portfolio meant it retained a powerful position in the market. The company is able to offer customers fuel from multiple sources — either from contracts with other producers or from its own facilities.

“For some of the buyers, whether you’re European or Asian, doing a deal with somebody like Shell is pretty appealing,” Harris said. “When it’s running a portfolio of this size, pretty much within reason it can give you what you want.”