>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers

Gapping up:
RAMP +8%, BTU +6%, TSM +5.6%, NGL +5.4%, IMTX +5.1%, LUXH +4.9%, TFC +3.4%, FLNC +3.2%, AAPL +1.7%, BA +1.5%, LSXMA +1.3%, LSXMK +1.3%, EC +1.2%, DHT +1%, OKE +1%, GTLB +0.8%
Gapping down:
PLUG -15.9%, DFS -11%, BTMD -7.3%, WTFC -7.2%, TALO -5.1%, VRDN -2.5%, COF -2.4%, ELF -2%, PHI -1.9%, MITK -1.8%, MRCY -1.5%, VOR -1.3%, KMI -1.2%, ARGX -1%, SNV -1%, WNS -1%, FAST -0.9%

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 18th of January 2024 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Airbus Raised to Buy at DZ Bank; PT 174 euros (+)
* AMS-Osram Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 2.50 Swiss francs
* Arjo Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 50 kronor
* BLUENORD ASA Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 600 kroner
* Evotec SE Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT 18.60 euros
* Kid ASA Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 145 kroner (+)
* Kinnevik Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 117 kronor
* Microsoft Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $471
* MTU Aero Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT 279 euros
* Naked Wines Raised to Hold at Liberum (+)
* Telenor Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 145 kroner
* Temenos Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT 100 Swiss francs

>>> Down
* Ahold Delhaize Cut to Neutral at UBS
* Ambu Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 120 kroner
* Atlas Copco Cut to Reduce at HSBC; PT 145 kronor
* Bachem Cut to Sell at Mirabaud Securities; PT 52 Swiss francs (+)
* BAE Cut to Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT 1,128 pence
* Byggmax Cut to Sell at SEB Equities; PT 28 kronor
* Cloetta Cut to Hold at Nordea
* Detection Tech Oy Cut to Hold at Nordea; PT 3.80 euros
* Essity Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 235 kronor
* Fortum Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 13.10 euros (+)
* Poujoulat Cut to Reduce at IDMidcaps; PT 15 euros (+)
* SpareBank 1 Helgeland Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities (+)
* TeamViewer SE Cut to Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT 13 euros
* Thales Cut to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT 155 euros

>>> Initiation
* Capita Reinstated Neutral at Citi
* ITV Reinstated Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 68 pence
* Moneysupermarket Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley
* Team Internet Group PLC Rated New Overweight at Cantor
* Voltalia Rated New Hold at SocGen; PT 9.30 euros

>>> Call
* AMS-Osram Rated Buy at Deutsche Bank on Turnaround Potential (+)
* Goldman Strategists Say European Small Caps Set to Outperform (+)

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Evotec SE (EVT TH) +2.3%
    • Evotec SE Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT 18.60 euros
  • Just Eat Takeaway (T5W TH) +2.2%
    • Stock fell 11% so far this week
  • LVMH (MOH TH) +2.1%
    • Watch European Luxury Stocks as Richemont Sales Beat Estimates
  • Kering (PPX TH) +1.9%
  • Vodafone (VODI TH) +1.8%
  • Bayer (BAYN TH) +1.3%
    • Bayer to Cut Manager Jobs in Bid to Exit ‘Difficult Situation’
  • MTU Aero (MTX TH) +1.2%
    • MTU Aero Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT 279 euros
  • ASMI (AVS TH) +1.2%
    • TSMC’s Outlook Backs Hopes for Global Tech Recovery in 2024
    • Watch European, US Samsung Suppliers Over New Galaxy Products
  • Infineon (IFX TH) +1.2%
  • Moncler (MOV TH) +1.1%
  • Stellantis (8TI TH) -0.7%
    • *EUROPE CAR SALES FELL 3.8% TO 1.05 MILLION UNITS IN DECEMBER
  • ING (INN1 TH) -0.8%
  • Continental (CON TH) -0.9%
  • Vestas (VWSB TH) -1%
  • Nokia (NOA3 TH) -1.2%
  • Thales (CSF TH) -1.5%
    • Thales Cut to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT 155 euros
  • TeamViewer SE (TMV TH) -3.2%
    • TeamViewer SE Cut to Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT 13 euros

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Bayer (BAYN TH) +1.5%
    • Bayer to Change Operating Model; Announces Staff Cuts
  • MTU Aero (MTX TH) +1.4%
    • MTU Aero Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT 279 euros
  • Siemens Energy (ENR TH) +1.3%
  • Infineon (IFX TH) +1.3%
    • TSMC’s Outlook Backs Hopes for Global Tech Recovery in 2024
    • Watch European, US Samsung Suppliers Over New Galaxy Products
MDAX:
  • Evotec SE (EVT TH) +1.9%
    • Evotec SE Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT 18.60 euros
  • Hensoldt (HAG TH) +1.1%
  • TeamViewer SE (TMV TH) -3.6%
    • TeamViewer SE Cut to Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT 13 euros
SDAX:
  • Thyssenkrupp Nucera AG & Co KGaa (NCH2 TH) +1.7%
  • Heidelberger Druck (HDD TH) +1.5%
  • Norma (NOEJ TH) -1.3%
  • MorphoSys (MOR TH) -1.5%

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 18th of January 2024

>>> Up
* AMS-Osram Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 2.50 Swiss francs
* Arjo Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 50 kronor
* BLUENORD ASA Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 600 kroner
* Evotec SE Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT 18.60 euros
* Kinnevik Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 117 kronor
* Microsoft Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $471
* MTU Aero Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT 279 euros
* Telenor Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 145 kroner
* Temenos Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT 100 Swiss francs

>>> Down
* Ahold Delhaize Cut to Neutral at UBS
* Ambu Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 120 kroner
* Atlas Copco Cut to Reduce at HSBC; PT 145 kronor
* BAE Cut to Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT 1,128 pence
* Byggmax Cut to Sell at SEB Equities; PT 28 kronor
* Cloetta Cut to Hold at Nordea
* Detection Tech Oy Cut to Hold at Nordea; PT 3.80 euros
* Essity Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 235 kronor
* Leonardo Cut to Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT 16 euros
* Rockwool Cut to Hold at DNB Markets; PT 1,960 kroner
* TeamViewer SE Cut to Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT 13 euros
* Thales Cut to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT 155 euros

>>> Initiation
* Capita Reinstated Neutral at Citi
* ITV Reinstated Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 68 pence
* Moneysupermarket Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley
* Team Internet Group PLC Rated New Overweight at Cantor
* Voltalia Rated New Hold at SocGen; PT 9.30 euros

>>> Call

>>> What to look at today - 18th of January 2024

Asian equities were mixed Thursday, with China extending a drop, after strong US retail sales data cast fresh doubt on the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March. Stocks in mainland China retreated, with the Shanghai Composite Index slipping below 2,800 to the lowest since 2020. The heavy selling in the world’s second-largest economy followed underwhelming economic reports and signs from Premier Li Qiang that authorities will avoid huge stimulus to revive growth. 
Japan and South Korean equities advanced, while those in Australia fell. Hong Kong shares rose toward the day’s high after briefly erasing all gains. US stock futures edged lower. Investors continue to shun Chinese equities, Jun Rong Yeap, market strategist at IG Asia Pte, wrote in a note. “China’s economic data revealed a challenging growth environment despite the series of stimulus efforts,” he added. The muted outlook for China and the repricing of expected Fed cuts have wiped 2% from global stocks this year. Recent weakness in the yen against the backdrop of strength in the greenback has nudged the Japanese currency within arm’s reach of 150 per dollar. Treasuries edged higher after further selling on Wednesday which was concentrated on the short end of the curve. The policy-sensitive two-year yield jumped 14 basis points, its biggest one-day increase since June. The 10-year rose four basis points to climb above 4.1% for the first time in more than a month. 
The greenback pared most of the gains recorded Wednesday against its Group-of-10 peers. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar was little changed following a report which showed the nation’s employment unexpectedly slumped in December. The drop in bond prices reflected a shift in investor expectations for a Fed rate cut in March. Swaps pricing shows the chances of such a cut slipped below 60% on Wednesday for the first time since the middle of December. That’s down from 80% on Friday. The decline followed comments from Fed officials this week pushing back against market expectations for imminent cuts and stronger-than-expected retail sales data Wednesday. Bumper consumer spending helped propel the economy in recent weeks, the Fed said in its Beige Book survey. Over in Japan, a sale of 20-year sovereign bonds recorded a lower-than-expected cut-off price, following weak auction results of other major tenors this month.  In corporate news, operators of Boeing Co.’s 737 Max 9 have completed inspections on an initial batch of 40 planes, a key step to eventually end the grounding of the aircraft. Meanwhile, Apple Inc. has to stop selling its Series 9 and Ultra 2 smartwatches with a blood oxygen feature in the US, after suffering another legal setback in a patent dispute. Gold eked out a gain after falling more than 1% Wednesday. West Texas Intermediate climbed toward $73 per barrel Thursday while Bitcoin traded near $42,500 to head for a second day of losses. US After Hours DFS -7.9%, AA -2.3%, FUL -1.8% lower on earnings; BTU +5.4% will join S&P SmallCap 600; RAMP +9.3% higher on guidance and deal to acquire Habu; PLUG -15.2% lower on ATM to sell shares.

Nikkei -0.03% Hang Seng +0.76% CSI +0.57% Shanghai -0.45% Shenzen -0.65%

Eur$ 1.0892 CNH 7.2187 CNY 7.1965 JPY 147.99 GBP 1.2679 CHF 0.8649 RUB 88.3789 TRY 30.1419 WTI$ 72.96 +0.55% Gold 2,006 BTC 42,642 +0.02% ETH 2,525 +0.06%

S&P +0.02% Nasdaq +0.14% EuroStoxx +0.16% FTSE -0.02% Dax +0.15% SMI +0.09%

Macro :
- HSBC Strategists Warn of European Equity Correction in Near Term
- ECB Asks Some Banks to Detail Exposure to Grifols: Reuters
- Hedge Funds Cash In on New Year’s Swoon in Most-Shorted Stocks
- Luxury Stocks Face More Gloom as Warnings Grow: Earnings Watch
- EU December Car Registrations Drop 3.3% Y/y to 0.867m Units

Keep an eye on :
- ARGX BB : Argenx Vyvdura Japan Approval for Generalized Myasthenia Gravis
- BGC LN : Baltic Classifieds Group Holder Apax Partners Offers 17m Shares
- BAYN GY : Bayer Agrees With Worker Groups to Cut ‘Many’ Management Jobs
- BBVA SM : BBVA Plans Early Redemption of Subordinated Notes on Feb. 22
- BESI NA : Europe’s Best Tech Stock of 2023 Has Room to Run, Goldman Says
- BPSO IM : US Lender May Build 10% Stake in Italy’s Popolare Sondrio: Sole
- BP/ LN : Sinopec and BP Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation in China
- BIRK US : Birkenstock’s First Earnings Crucial After IPO Wobble: ECM Watch
- CAMX SS ; Camurus Prelim FY Revenue ~SEK1.72b, at High End of Guidance /// Offering of Shares Prices at SEK545/Share
- COTY US : Kim Kardashian Makeup Would Be Positive for Coty, Jefferies Says
- DAN IM : Italy, Metinvest, Danieli Pledge to Relaunch Tuscan Steelmaker
- DRX LN : UK Government Proposes New Funding Options For Drax’s Biomass
- EFECTE FH : Matrix24 Offers EU15 in Cash Per Share for Efecte
- ENT LN : Vexed Entain Shareholders Might Sit on £4.6 Billion BetMGM Pot
- EQT SS : EQT FY Adjusted Ebitda Misses Estimates
- EQT SS : Swedish PE Firm EQT Plans to Exit a Number of Companies in 2024
- FLU AV : Flughafen Wien Sees 2024 Profit at Least EU210M
- FRAS LN : Frasers Group Raises Voting Rights in ASOS to 25% From 24.17%
- GALE SW : Galenica FY Sales Meets Estimates
- IBE SM : Cofece will have 60 business days to resolve the agreement between Iberdrola and the AMLO Government
- LTMC IM : Apollo to Place 6.4% of Lottomatica’s Share Capital
- MAERSKB DC : Maersk Warns of Jammed Ports, Inland Delays From Red Sea Turmoil
- MOWI NO : Mowi 4Q Harvest Misses Estimates; Operating EBIT About €203M (1)
- REP SM : Repsol 4Q Downstream Refining Margin/BBL Beats Estimates
- CFR SW : Richemont 3Q Sales at Constant Exchange Rates Beats Estimates
- RILBA DC : Ringkjoebing Landbobank Sees 2024 Net Income DKK1.8B to DKK2.2B
- 2330 TT : TSMC’s Outlook Backs Hopes for Global Tech Recovery in 2024
- VIRP FP : Virbac 4Q Revenue Misses Estimates

FT :Rome prepares to take control of troubled steel plant

Rome prepares to take control of troubled steel plant
Giorgia Meloni’s government has failed to agree with ArcelorMittal over former Ilva factory

Giorgia Meloni’s government is preparing to put Europe’s largest steelworks under special administration after failing to agree with ArcelorMittal on the plant’s future.

Rome’s announcement, expected as soon as Thursday, would come after a tense stand-off over the injection of €320mn urgently needed to keep the factory running — including payment of its outstanding gas bills.

The historic steelworks is being operated by Acciaierie d’Italia (AdI), a joint venture co-owned by ArcelorMittal, the Luxembourg-based international steel giant, and Italy’s state investment agency, Invitalia.

Formerly known as Ilva, the plant located in the southern town of Taranto has long been dogged by environmental problems and struggled to stay afloat, with production dropping to less than 3mn tonnes last year, compared with its capacity of 8mn tonnes. Earlier this week, a court ruled that the gas company Snam could stop supplying energy to the steelworks due to about €200mn in unpaid bills, though AdI has appealed.

But closing a factory that employs about 10,000 people would become a political problem for Meloni, who has vowed to strengthen Italy’s industrial base and create jobs. 

Once it places the plant in special administration — an Italian insolvency regime intended to keep large illiquid industries operating — Rome will be able to appoint its own interim executive to take over management from ArcelorMittal while it seeks a buyer.

The move would bring the steelworks back full circle to 2018, when ArcelorMittal took control of the plant from special administration and was briefly hailed as the plant’s potential saviour before relations with Rome quickly soured.

During emergency talks in Rome last week, Aditya Mittal, chief executive of ArcelorMittal, told Italian ministers that his company was not willing to inject any more money into the business.

The government — which provided an emergency €680mn loan to the steelworks last year — has said Invitalia could inject the money itself and convert last year’s loan into equity, thereby becoming the majority stakeholder.

But the partners are at odds over how AdI would be governed if Invitalia had a majority stake, according to several people familiar with talks.

ArcelorMittal has also offered to exit the business altogether, but wants compensation of €200mn for its shares, and an additional €200mn for supplies provided to the factory, those people said.

After last week’s failure to reach a breakthrough, Italy’s economic development minister, Adolfo Urso, told parliament that “drastic intervention” was required to save the plant.

“These hours are decisive for immediately guaranteeing — in the absence of commitment from the private partner — the continuity of production and the safeguarding of employment in the period necessary to find other private industrial investors,” Urso told lawmakers.

Built in the 1960s, the Taranto plant was once a source of pride. But it proved an environmental disaster, spewing out lethal carcinogens that neighbours said were poisoning them and fuelling a surge of cancer cases. 

In 2014, Rome took control, intent on finding new owners to clean up the ageing plant, restore it to financial health and increase production. In 2018, after a competitive bidding process, ArcelorMittal agreed to a €1.8bn lease-to-purchase deal, pledging hundreds of millions of additional funds for the environmental clean-up.

It sold off several of its other European steel plants to secure a green light from EU’s competition authority. But the following year, the anti-establishment Five Star party came to power and withdrew the legal immunity clause that protected ArcelorMittal from criminal liability for the plant’s environmental problems. 

ArcelorMittal threatened to walk away, but instead agreed to form a joint venture with the public investment agency to run the plant together.

However, relations have remained fraught, with the two sides accusing each other of failing to live up to commitments. Surging gas prices in 2022 put further pressure on operations.

“It’s a situation that tells very much about the relationship between Italian politicians and companies,” said Carlo Calenda, a senator and former economic development minister, who helped negotiate ArcelorMittal’s entry. “They simply don’t know how to approach industry.”

Calenda said he was pessimistic about the factory’s prospects following the breakdown of relations with ArcelorMittal.

“My outlook on Ilva is very bleak. It will be very difficult for the state to manage a factory in a very competitive market.”