>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Ashtead (0LC TH) +3.2%
  • BAE (BSP TH) +2.8%
  • Kinnevik (IV6 TH) +1.3%
    • Iliad’s Freya Investissement to Buy About 19.8% of Tele2
  • Anglo American (NGLB TH) +1.1%
  • Rolls-Royce (RRU TH) +1%
    • Rolls’ Revival Holds as Engine Use Reaches 2019: Equity Outlook
  • HSBC (HBC1 TH) +1%
  • AstraZeneca (ZEG TH) +0.9%
    • AstraZeneca PLC AZN Voydeya recommended for EU approval
  • BASF (BAS TH) +0.8%
    • BASF Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT 59 euros
  • CTS Eventim (EVD TH) -1.1%
  • Shell (R6C0 TH) -1.2%
  • Tomra (TMRA TH) -1.2%
  • TAG Immobilien (TEG TH) -1.3%
  • Nokia (NOA3 TH) -1.3%
    • Nokia Commits to Net Zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 2040
  • Engie (GZF TH) -1.4%
  • Lufthansa (LHA TH) -1.5%
    • Lufthansa Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 8.50 euros
  • Glencore (8GC TH) -1.5%
    • Watch European Miners After Iron Ore Falls to Four-Month Low
  • Vestas (VWSB TH) -1.6%
  • Alfa Laval (AA9 TH) -1.8%

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Rheinmetall (RHM TH) +1%
  • BASF (BAS TH) +0.8%
    • BASF Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT 59 euros
  • Porsche SE (PAH3 TH) -0.8%
MDAX:
  • United Internet (UTDI TH) -1%
  • CTS Eventim (EVD TH) -1.1%
  • Aroundtown (AT1 TH) -1.2%
  • Lufthansa (LHA TH) -1.2%
    • Lufthansa Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 8.50 euros
SDAX:
  • SGL (SGL TH) +3.3%
  • Takkt (TTK TH) +2.7%
  • Suess MicroTec (SMHN TH) +1.4%
  • Heidelberger Druck (HDD TH) +1.2%
  • SFC Energy (F3C TH) +1%
  • Adtran Holdings (QH9 TH) -1%
  • Ceconomy (CEC TH) -1.2%
  • Borussia Dortmund (BVB TH) -1.2%
  • AUTO1 (AG1 TH) -1.4%

>>> What to look at today - 26th of February 2024

Stocks in Asia traded in volatile session as investors assessed the latest economic development in China and South Korea’s plan to boost companies’ value. The MSCI Inc.’s Asia Pacific gauge erased most of its gains to move flat as Hong Kong and mainland China stocks fell. Concerns about China was a focus after 11 Chinese companies lost their credit ratings Friday at Moody’s Investors Service, which withdrew the scores in an unusual flurry that underscores fallout from record defaults. Traders are now waiting if the government will roll out more stimulus after President Xi Jinping on Friday called for a boost in boost the sales of traditional consumer products including cars and home appliances. Expectations of more stimulus were also fueled by weak borrowing by local governments, stirring speculations that Beijing may pick up their slack and take on more debt. South Korean stocks trimmed their losses after declining as much 1.4% on the authority’s plan to push listed companies to improve management and corporate governance, which some investors found as lacking details. apanese equities were outperformers as both the Tokyo Stock Price Index and the Nikkei-225 Stock Average gained, with the latter extending record highs. Japan trading house stocks rose after Warren Buffett said in his annual shareholder letter that the companies follow investor-friendly policies that are “much superior” to firms in the US. Contracts for US shares also declined after the S&P 500 rally stalled at the end of last week, weighed by profit taking in megacap tech stocks.  Elsewhere, New Zealand’s dollar fell against all Group-of-10 currencies as traders weighed the nation’s monetary policy outlook. The US dollar edged up. Treasuries extended gains in Asia, while Australian 10-year yields dropped nine basis points. This week, investors will be bracing for the impact from heavy Treasury and corporate issuance and month-end positioning. There’s also a slate of economic data to be scrutinized, including the so-called core personal consumption expenditures price index on Thursday that’s the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge.  Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said in an interview published Friday that the economy is headed in the right direction, and it will likely be appropriate to cut rates later this year. A slew of Fed speakers this week are likely to reiterate William’s comments that the central bank doesn’t feel pressure to begin cutting rates anytime soon. In commodities, oil followed a weekly drop with further losses as traders awaited fresh clues about global demand and balances in March and beyond. Gold was slightly down while iron ore fell to the lowest since October — after dropping almost 9% last week — with hopes for a rebound in Chinese steel demand following the Lunar New Year holidays fading. 

Nikkei +0.35% Hang Seng -0.57% CSI -1.04%% Shanghai -0.93% Shenzen +0.44%

Eur$ 1.0821 CNH 7.2050 CNY 7.1980 JPY 150.48 GBP 1.2666 CHF 0.8811 RUB 94.8670 TRY 31.1036 WTI$ 76.12 -0,50% Gold 2,033 -1% BTC 51,555 -0,40% ETH 3,107

S&P -0,21% Nasdaq -0,30% EuroStoxx -0,23% FTSE -0,15% Dax -0,14% SMI -0.17%

Macro :
- Goldman Strategists Say Bullish Sentiment Has Scope to Broaden
- CRE Risks Faced by US Banks ‘Manageable,’ Citigroup Analysts Say
- World’s Best Hedge Fund Bet Bumps Up Against a New Era of Risk
- Investors Flee Tumbling EV Upstarts Once Hailed as ‘Next Tesla’
- Switzerland Says It Aims to Begin Ukraine Peace Talks By Summer
- Verdane Raises €1.1 Billion for Digital, Green Bets in Europe

Keep an eye on :
- AA US : Alcoa Makes $2.2 Billion Bid for Australian Partner Alumina
- AVGO US : KKR Is Said to Near $4 Billion Deal for Broadcom Unit
- BRK/A US : Berkshire Hathaway 4Q Operating Income Beats Estimates
- BIOGASS SS : Biokraft Plans SEK650m Rights Issue to Repay Green Bonds
- CIE SM : CIE Automotive 4Q Net Income Misses Estimates
- DIS US : Disney, Reliance Said to Sign Binding India Media Merger Pact
- ECV GY : Encavis Buys Two Solar Parks in Spain; No Terms
- ENEL IM : Enel CEO Sees Debt in Line With Peers or Better in 2024: Ansa
- ERA FP : Indonesia Will Wipe Out Nickel Rivals, Eramet Head Says: FT
- XOM US : Pipeline & Gas: ExxonMobil Weighs Offers for Argentina Shale Assets, Source Says
- FER SM : Heathrow Airport Denies Plan for Third Runway Has Been Shelved
- F US : Ford Stops Shipping Electric F-150 Pickup Due to Quality Issue
- GS US : Goldman Strikes $1 Billion Private Credit Deal With Mubadala
- GSK LN : GSK, Gilead Eye 2027 HIV Patent Cliff Despite Long-Acting Push
- RMS FP : Vaucher Manufacture Fleurier, the independent watchmaker Parmigiani Fleurier and several other watch component suppliers have been put up for sale by their parent Sandoz Family Foundation (Miss Tweed)
- KINVB SS : Kinnevik’s TELE2 Stake Acquired by Freya Investissement
- LLBN SW : Liechtensteinische LB FY Oper Income CHF541.8M Vs. CHF503.2M Y/y
- MC FP : GM Seeks to Pair Up With Luxury Brands for a New European Push
- MKS LN : M&S puts payment to Ocado on hold over poor performance
- MBG GY : Mercedes-Benz Files Recall of 105,071 Vehicles: NHTSA
- NXT LN : Next Is Interested in Buying Parts of The Body Shop, Sky Reports
- NVDA US : Bezos, Nvidia Join OpenAI in Funding Humanoid Robot Startup
- OCDO LN : M&S puts payment to Ocado on hold over poor performance
- PNL NA : PostNL 2024 Normalized Ebit Forecast Misses Estimates
- RECSI NO : REC Silicon’s Moses Lake Inspected by Washington Labor Authority
- RENEW SS : Renewcell’s Board Decides to File for Bankruptcy
- SGO FP : Saint-Gobain Agrees to Buy CSR at A$9.00/Shr
- SGO FP : CSR Agrees to $3 Billion Takeover by French Rival Saint-Gobain
- SBBB SS : SBB Agrees JV Deal With Castlelake, Gets Over $500m in Proceeds
- SGL GY : SGL Carbon Evaluates Strategic Options for Carbon Fibers Unit
- LOCAL FP : Solocal Requests Conciliation Proceedings, Postpones Earnings
- SLC AU : Aussie Broadband Makes Non-Binding Offer to Buy Superloop
- STLAM IM : Stellantis Signs 500K Cars Multi-Billion Euro Deal With Ayvens
- TEL2B SS : Iliad’s Freya Investissement to Buy ~19.8% of Tele2 for ~SEK13B
- TEMN SW : Temenos Forms Special Committee to Oversee Hindenburg Review
- TSCO LN : British grocers ‘weaponise’ planning disputes to fend off Aldi and Lidl
- Thames Water : Thames Water’s Future Hangs on Ruling Over Investor Payouts
- 8TRA GY : Northvolt Reaches Stable Battery Deliveries After Ramp-Up Delays
- 2330 TT : Cathie Wood Doubles Down on AI Sales With Cut to TSMC Stake
- UBSG SW : Ant Outbids Citadel Securities for Credit Suisse’s China Unit
- VOD LN : Vodafone Advances After Betaville Issues ‘Uncooked Alert’

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 26th of February 2024

>>> Up
* Axa Raised to Outperform at Mediobanca SpA; PT 40 euros
* BASF Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT 59 euros
* Fannie Mae Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $2
* Freddie Mac Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $2.50
* Hiscox Raised to Buy at Peel Hunt; PT 1,340 pence
* NYAB Oyj Raised to Reduce at Inderes; PT 45 euro cents
* Sogefi Raised to Buy at Intesa Sanpaolo; PT 4 euros
* Southwestern Energy Raised to Neutral at Mizuho Securities

>>> Down
* Asos Cut to Hold at SocGen; PT 406 pence
* Halma Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 2,500 pence
* Lufthansa Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 8.50 euros
* Lundbergforetagen Cut to Sell at DNB Markets; PT 485 kronor
* Moderna Cut to Reduce at HSBC; PT $86
* MPC Container Ships ASA Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities
* Nestle Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 106 Swiss francs
* Norrhydro Group Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 1.80 euros
* Orion Cut to Underperform at Jefferies; PT 28 euros
* Rivian Cut to Hold at Truist Secs; PT $11

>>> Initiation
* Amer Sports Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $16
* Cie des Alpes Reinstated Corporate at Edison Investment Research
* De Nora Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT 20 euros
* Leonardo DRS Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $23
* NIBE Industrier Rated New Buy at Citi; PT 71 kronor
* PowerCell Rated New Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 53 kronor
* Tesla Rated New Hold at China Renaissance; PT $180.16
* Torm Reinstated Buy at Nordea; PT 270 kroner

>>> Call
* Goldman Strategists Say Bullish Sentiment Has Scope to Broaden
*
* Nestle Cut at Stifel on Waning Performance, Lack of Improvement

WWD : A Small but Mighty New Biotech Player Wants to Raise the Bar Using Exosome

A Small but Mighty New Biotech Player Wants to Raise the Bar Using Exosomes
Helmed by two molecular scientists and an Estée Lauder Cos. alum, SickScience aims to tackle myriad beauty concerns using its proprietary NX35 exosome-isolating technology.

SickScience cocreator Tyler Heiden Jones was in Paris attending the 2022 IMCAS medical research conference when he heard molecular scientists Polen Koçak and Merve Yildirim discussing the potential of exosomes — more specifically, exosome isolation — in regenerative medicine.

“I nearly fell out of my chair during the presentation,” recalled Heiden Jones, who formerly led marketing at La Mer for several years before becoming general manager at Kosé and, most recently, heading up retail sales and marketing at Nécessaire.

“As a marketer, you’re always looking for that ‘next big thing.’ Normally it’s a slow evolution of improvement; the ‘next’ thing will be marginally better than what came before it, but when I saw this I thought, ‘oh my god — this is a big deal.'”

Exosomes are microscopic vesicles that facilitate intercellular communication and transport molecules like RNAs, proteins and lipids. While research into how the particles can benefit cancer treatment, obesity and diabetes management is well underway, exosomes are relatively new to the average beauty consumer’s lexicon — though avid proponents like Dr. Barbara Sturm and Dr. Will Cole have given them a recent boost in visibility.

Importantly, exosomes are notoriously challenging to isolate — a crucial step in wielding their benefits. To overcome this, college-classmates-turned-cofounders Koçak and Yildirim embarked on a 10-year-long research journey that led to the creation of their proprietary exosome-isolating NX35 technology.

And though the Istanbul-based pair were not presenting their findings in Paris with the intent of launching a beauty brand, a meeting with Heiden Jones to discuss the viability of leveraging the technology to improve skin, hair and body care treatments quickly led to the genesis of SickScience.

Launching direct-to-consumer Monday, the beauty brand’s debut stock keeping unit is the ShapeShift V-Line Jaw Defining Serum, which retails for $58 and taps pineapple-derived exosomes to combat “tech neck” and create a more sculpted-looking neck and jawline.

“Traditionally, slimming products will aim to increase firmness and elasticity, or increase blood pressure using caffeine — we’re not doing that. Our exosomes carry the message to fat reserves to naturally metabolize lipids in the body,” said Yildirim.

A key aim of the clinically tested, vegan serum is to offer a more accessible alternative to aesthetic or medical treatments that reduce jaw fat.

“We know [the jaw] is a very difficult area to work with, and we thought this is a great way to sort of plant our flag and say, ‘this is what we stand for’ — problem-solution products for concerns that we don’t feel are being addressed in the cosmetic industry — only through medical procedures,” said Heiden Jones.

The brand’s second launch coming in April will be a hair offering that harnesses garlic-derived exosomes aiming to stimulate growth.

“We like the idea of what we call a ‘popcorn strategy’ — problem solving and jumping through various categories like face, scalp, body,” he said. “NX35 isn’t a magic ingredient; it’s a technology that is applied differently for each product in order to get a desired result.”

Though the brand did not specify sales estimates for the launch, industry sources estimate SickScience could do around $2 million in sales during its first year on the market.

As far as marketing goes, Koçak and Yildirim themselves will take to the brand’s social media platforms to educate consumers about the biotech behind the formulas.

“We know full well this will be a long battle of building awareness,” said Heiden Jones, adding to that end that the brand is betting big on third-party clinical trial results and consumer testimonials to drive growth and build a loyal consumer base.

The brand’s lab-to-market process takes roughly nine to 12 months per new innovation, he said, and while the company’s near-term focus is getting SickScience off the ground, there is potential down the road “that we’ll have learned enough to reduce [manufacturing] costs that we could create a viable raw material business, separate from SickScience.”

FT : Banks strike back at private credit in ‘aggressive’ push to win deals

Banks strike back at private credit in ‘aggressive’ push to win deals
About $10bn of loans have been refinanced in public markets as conditions improve due to rate cuts being on the horizon

Buyout firms are shaving tens of millions of dollars off interest costs by refinancing debts racked up in private credit markets with publicly traded bonds and loans, delivering a windfall for the Wall Street banks that arrange them.

Roughly $10bn of so-called private credit loans have been refinanced in public markets, as borrowers pay down burdensome loans in favour of a cheaper alternative, according to data from Bank of America.

Private equity firms that buy out companies are taking advantage of a recovery in global corporate bond and loan markets, after the Federal Reserve signalled that inflation had been sufficiently tamed for it to begin cutting interest rates.

That shift has opened the door for investment banks to pitch hard for business that they lost to private lenders after rates dramatically rose in 2022, with the banks hoping for a revival of lucrative fees.

“Pressure is coming from sponsors for the coupons to be cut and this is just a race to the bottom between the banks and the direct lenders,” said Neha Khoda, a strategist at Bank of America.


The list of borrowers shifting from private to public debt markets includes Veritas-backed energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie and UK insurance broker Ardonagh, according to people briefed on the matter. Ardonagh is owned by Madison Dearborn and HPS Investment Partners.

Other firms, including Blackstone and Hg, have sought cut-rate loans for new deals, with banks and the direct lenders of the private credit industry often being played against each other as private equity firms look to whittle down interest costs.

It culminated last week with the sale of a $5bn loan that backed KKR’s purchase of a stake in a healthcare technology company known as Cotiviti. An aborted investment last year in Cotiviti was initially to be funded by direct lenders, as ructions in public markets pushed banks to the sidelines.

But banks led by JPMorgan Chase lobbied hard to underwrite a financing over the past four months as a new deal moved closer to the finish line. The package they clinched on Thursday included a $4.25bn loan that pays an interest rate just 3.25 percentage points above the Sofr floating rate benchmark, a level far below the threshold considered last year by private lenders. The company also raised a $725mn fixed-rate loan with a coupon of 7.63 per cent.

The changing market conditions offer an opportunity to banks, which were saddled with billions of dollars of losses on the deals they agreed to finance in 2022.

Scorching inflation and rapidly rising interest rates made it difficult for big lenders to shift loans off their own balance sheets and into the hands of other investors.

That included loans associated with some marquee buyouts including Elliott Management’s takeover of technology business Citrix, Elon Musk’s purchase of social media company Twitter and Apollo’s acquisition of telecommunications group Brightspeed. The losses limited lenders’ interest in extending new loans, and when they did the terms were often too expensive for private equity firms to turn to.

Private credit funds stepped into the gap, writing multibillion-dollar loans to companies including Norwegian online classifieds company Adevinta and software maker New Relic, and providing money at a time when cash was harder to come by.

“Direct lenders made significant market share gains on the banks because the banks were undergoing periods of stress,” said Kipp deVeer, head of Ares’ credit business. “Those market share gains are lasting but it ebbs and flows.”

The gulf between the two worlds had not been this wide in at least a decade, said Khoda. By her calculations, direct lenders were charging roughly 2.5 percentage points more than banks. A year ago, that figure was a full percentage point lower.

“As we’ve turned the year you see banks being more aggressive,” said Chris Bonner, who heads leveraged finance capital markets for Goldman Sachs. “You have seen more stability in the ecosystem, [with investors] feeling rates are finally coming down . . . As an underwriter you’re more comfortable putting on risk positions.”

This shift has heaped pressure on private credit lenders, which are either rapidly reducing the costs they charge borrowers — in some cases waiving fees to keep deals in their hands — or losing those deals to traditional syndicated loan markets.

The issue may present less of a challenge for the colossal money managers that straddle both worlds, given many of the giants in the private credit industry — including Ares, Blackstone and KKR — are also massive players in public debt markets. But the direct lending funds they manage may begin to post lower returns, investors said.

In a board meeting last month, an executive at the $105bn Ohio Public Employees Retirement System said the generous return on private credit may shrink as competition intensifies. “It wouldn’t surprise me in the coming years if we do see some compression in terms of the spread we are able to earn,” she said.

Pressure on yields has also been exacerbated by a dearth of big mergers and acquisitions since the Fed began raising rates.

“There have been fewer LBOs and therefore less new loan volume,” said Michael Patterson, a governing partner at asset manager HPS Investment Partners.

“Managers have not invested as much capital as they expected and . . . want to make sure they participate in the next opportunity. And they’re willing to be aggressive to make sure they do.”

Fees underwriting these risky deals in the US have risen 35 per cent year to date to $1.8bn, according to data from LSEG, and are up 10 per cent globally.

Nonetheless, banks have quite a bit of room to make up, given they earned about $11bn on their US leveraged finance businesses in both 2023 and 2022. That was down a third from 2021 levels, when it surged above $16bn.


Risks still lurk, and bankers say they have not forgotten how quickly things could unravel like they did in 2022. But they are hopeful that now is their time to strike, particularly in an election year when markets may be more volatile.

Private credit lenders add that they are not going anywhere. Even as fundraising slows from its white-hot pace, large managers are still pulling in billions of dollars a quarter to make new loans.

“In order for you to have a functioning capital markets ecosystem you want the banks involved,” said Milwood Hobbs Jr, a managing director at Oaktree, the investment manager. “Everyone is losing sight of the fact that this market is too big for just private credit or banks.”