>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 3rd of November 2023 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Airbnb Raised to Buy at Phillip Secs; PT $157
* Andritz Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 60 euros
* Anglo American Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 2,550 pence (+)
* Chr. Hansen Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 555 kroner
* Cordiant Digital Infrastructure/Fund Raised to Buy at Jefferies
* Fortum Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 14.50 euros
* Hexagon Raised to Buy at Nordea; PT 124 kronor
* ISS Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT 105 kroner
* Kering Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 540 euros
* Moderna Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT $69
* Novozymes Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 364 kroner
* Relais Group Raised to Buy at Inderes; PT 15.50 euros
* Scatec Raised to Hold at DNB Markets; PT 62 kroner
* Smith & Nephew Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 1,248 pence
* Uber Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $60

>>> Down
* Accor Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 33 euros
* BCP Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 40 euro cents
* BCP Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 40 euro cents (+)
* Estee Lauder Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT $118
* Integrated Wind Solutions Cut to Neutral at SpareBank (+)

>>> Initiation
* Amazon Rated New Buy at William O'Neil
* Auto Trader Reinstated Buy at Panmure Gordon; PT 695 pence
* Richemont Reinstated Buy at Investec; PT 130.60 Swiss francs
* Yubico Rated New Buy at SEB Equities; PT 128 kronor

>>> Call
* Citi’s Manthey Says European Stocks’ Implied Volatility Is Low (+)
* JPMorgan Strategists Say Earnings Weakness Due to Commodities

FT : The scandalous, scarcely believable journey of the little Kandinsky

The scandalous, scarcely believable journey of the little Kandinsky
Stolen twice. Re-sold around the world. The dramatic afterlife of a master’s postcard-sized painting

Housed in a 19th-century listed mansion that stretches skyward into spires, the Grisebach auction house gives off the disquieting charm of a German fairytale castle. Outside runs Fasanenstrasse, a leafy street of galleries and skincare boutiques in one of Berlin’s chicest corners. On December 1 2022, Marcin Król, the Polish consul in Berlin, climbed the steps to the building for the evening sale beginning at 6pm. A number of impressive modern artworks were on offer, including a sought-after self-portrait in oil by Max Beckmann. But it was Lot No 31, “Untitled”, a little pink Wassily Kandinsky watercolour from 1928, that had Król’s attention that evening.

Król was not at Grisebach as a buyer. Earlier that day he had sent the auction house a message demanding it stop the sale of the Kandinsky. In the hours since, representatives at Grisebach had reviewed the legal status of the artwork and its right to be sold by Inga Maren Otto, a German billionaire and philanthropist. Their decision was clear. They would proceed.

At 4.40pm, Król took to Twitter, quoting the message he’d sent to Grisebach. “Withdraw[ing] the painting from the auction,” he wrote, “[was] the only correct and moral action in this situation . . . The provenance/history of the painting stated [in the catalogue] is clear . . . the painting has ownership markings indicating its origin from the National Museum in Warsaw. [It has been registered] from the Polish side in Interpol’s database of stolen works of art.” He finished the thread with an update: “The auction house has not yet stopped selling the work. As of 4.50pm.”

Król watched on a TV screen in the corner of an anteroom as the auction began. Lot No 31 eventually appeared on the screen. Flattened by the glowing pixels, the original aqueous colours took on neon tones. There was a faint scribble underneath in Kandinsky’s handwriting. After a flurry of bids, more than doubling the upper reserve price, the hammer came down.


Afterwards, Król posted a photo to Twitter with a solemn summary of what he had witnessed. It read like both the beginning and the end of an art-crime story: “Grisebach sold Kandinsky’s watercolour [“Untitled”] for €310,000. The painting was stolen in 1984 from the National Museum in Warsaw.” Then the Berlin police showed up at the auction house, in response to a report of a stolen artwork being sold on the premises. Król’s message that day was, said Grisebach in a statement issued after the event, the first they’d learnt of the theft.

I heard about the auction of the Kandinsky watercolour some weeks later. I was intrigued by this little work on paper, the size of which is hard to gauge when viewed online. A cluster of geometric shapes and coloured washes not much bigger than a postcard, it’s not a famous piece and was never supposed to be. The personalised dedication at the bottom provides a clue as to its original, more intimate context.

Through Król’s media offensive, I began to imagine the painting in its previous lives. A valued artwork can do this; move through history like a time traveller who has seen it all, changing hands, changing walls, changing in value, picking up a few marks and scuffs, but remaining, on the surface, itself. It’s easy to forget that many of the works of art we see today have somehow weathered revolutions, wars and genocide. During and after the second world war, art collections dispersed like breadcrumbs in the mouths of sparrows. Since that time, art dealers and auction houses have continued to sell these works, right up to the present day, with values soaring.

As I began to trace the Kandinsky’s journey, I discovered the story had deeper roots than even Król had imagined. The watercolour wasn’t stolen once but twice. Having survived the Nazi party’s confiscations of modern art in the 1930s, it languished in a depot in occupied Poland before travelling back and forth across the world via private and public sales as the lines between black market and art market blurred postwar. As the trail grew more convoluted, my questions multiplied. How was it possible, I wondered, that a piece of art that we know was once stolen from a major European museum could now be sold, perfectly legally, by an important German auction house? And who, in the chain of ownership spanning nearly a century, is the rightful owner of Lot No 31?

In his Dessau studio in 1928, Wassily Kandinsky sat before a small sheet of thick paper. He drew in ink, a balance of precisely placed interlocking semicircles, triangles and floating circles, with a more irregular snakelike mark through the centre. Then he dragged his paintbrush across some watercolour pans, applying the colours to the interior of the shapes in blues, yellows and reds, and washing the surround in pink. The watery paint pooled in different areas, variegating the intensity of the colour where it settled. Then it dried, locking the painting into position. At the bottom, in pencil, the artist wrote: “Meinem lieben Otto Ralfs, herzlichsten Glückwunsch, Kandinsky I IV 28” [“To my dear Otto Ralfs, Happy Birthday, Kandinsky, 1 April 28”]. It was a gift, made for his friend and patron on the occasion of his 36th birthday.

Kandinsky’s studio was in a row of identical semi-detached houses located in a pine forest at the edge of town, where artist-professors lived and worked. This was the vision of Walter Gropius, founder of the influential modernist art and design school the Bauhaus, who designed the Dessau “Masters’ Houses” in 1925 to fit his concept of gesamtkunstwerk, or total artwork. Kandinsky lived at No 6, next door to the Swiss-German artist Paul Klee. The day I visited earlier this summer, the sunny weather was heating the pines, filling the air with the same calm, sweet smell that Kandinsky, then in his late fifties, and the younger Klee would have breathed as they sat drinking tea together in the garden.

Inside, the thick, shiny paint was fresh from recent restoration work, distracting the senses from conjuring their presence. The artists’ studios, the largest rooms in their carefully designed houses, shared a wall. From the front, an enormous horizontal window frames the central focus of the house, the parallel studios in which they worked, taught and held salons: Kandinsky on the left, Klee on the right.

Otto Ralfs and his wife Käte bought their first works by Klee when they visited the Bauhaus in Weimar in September 1923. After that, their lives changed completely. The couple didn’t have a lot of money. He worked as an insurance salesman and owned a shop in his hometown, Braunschweig, in northern Germany. She was a paediatric nurse. But they were among the first people to see the value in the art being produced at the Bauhaus. At one point, they had the largest collection of Klees, and the second-largest collection of Kandinskys after Solomon R Guggenheim.


The Ralfses met Kandinsky not long after he arrived from Russia and was living in the attic apartment of another family, with his second wife, Nina Andreevskaya. “They had just three cups, and the vodka was going around in a water glass,” said Käte Ralfs, in an unpublished interview with the art historian Peg Weiss in the 1980s. Otto and Kandinsky agreed on an exchange: Ralfs would send him glasses and pots from his household-goods shop, and Kandinsky would send him artworks. The Ralfses’ collection kept growing. Later, the German artist Kurt Schwitters wrote them a letter: “I hear you are trading art for pots. My wife urgently needs a few . . . ”

“They were the typical modern Weimar-era couple,” said Nina Zimmer, great-grandniece of Käte and Otto and director of the Klee Museum, in Bern. “They had great parties and they used to swap clothes. Käte would wear a suit and Otto a dress and stockings.” Rudolf Zwirner, the German art dealer, remembers this too. “Ralfs always invited people to his modest apartment in Braunschweig’s Schuntersiedlung on Sundays to show his works on paper . . . [He] received people in women’s clothing, but no one took offence. For me it was the first encounter with a transvestite,” he wrote in a 2019 autobiography.

By 1931, the German economy was in crisis and Otto Ralfs was broke, forcing him to sell a few pieces from his collection. Provenance data shows clearly that any works leaving the Ralfs collection legally did so at around this time. Two years later, Otto and Käte looked on as Adolf Hitler stood in front of a large National Socialist demonstration outside the front of the Braunschweig Palace. Before long, the Nazis were confiscating tens of thousands of modern works of art that they considered “degenerate”, among them works by Kandinsky and Klee. Both artists left Germany when the Bauhaus was closed in 1933. The Ralfses were not immediately targeted but had started to look for a safe storage location for their collection. But in their dining room, they left three large Kandinskys hanging, including the important 1910 painting “Composition I”. They only moved them down into their air-raid shelter after the second world war began.

Otto Ralfs spent the war as a lieutenant stationed in Katowice, part of occupied Poland, but for most of his time headed a maintenance unit near the Eastern Front. When he returned on leave to Braunschweig, he and Käte packed up the largest part of their collection into five heavy boxes and organised its transportation to a depot in Katowice. In October 1944, she was visiting him in Katowice when Britain carried out “Operation Hurricane” on Braunschweig, a devastating air raid that destroyed 90 per cent of the medieval city centre, along with much of the Ralfses’ house and the art still stored in the basement. Otto’s famous guest book miraculously survived, along with a few artworks that were stored in a different part of the house.

It isn’t entirely clear what happened to the art kept in the Ralfses’ depot. The Red Army reached Katowice in January 1945 but, before any of the artworks could be confiscated by either the Soviet troops or the soon-to-be founded communist Polish state, the collection had vanished. “The entire warehouse had somehow seeped away into the population” was how Käte put it more than three decades later.

The watercolour by Kandinsky, stored in one of these boxes in a folder along with other works on paper, was just one small sheet among hundreds of artworks by artists including Klee, Otto Dix and Edvard Munch taken from the Katowice depot. The Ralfses would spend the rest of their lives trying to retrieve them.

Dorota Folga-Januszewska was a curator at the National Museum in Warsaw in 1982. In early summer, she and Irena Jakimowicz, then curator of modern prints and drawings, heard that a few modern pieces by famous western artists had appeared on the market. This was unusual at the time, but the museums had first dibs on the pieces, so they visited the state-owned Desa gallery in Krakow to view them. Lying in a vitrine were four works by Paul Klee and two by Wassily Kandinsky, an untitled drypoint from 1928 and the little pink watercolour, both with dedications to Otto Ralfs.

On a video call, Folga-Januszewska, now a professor at the Academy of Fine Arts in Warsaw, told me she looked into the provenance of the pieces. Her investigations confirmed the obvious: the collection had once belonged to the Ralfses. Folga-Januszewska had heard rumours about where the artworks had come from but the official line was that they had been confiscated by the Nazi party and sold during the time of German occupation. In other words, they were not looted by Poles, nor requisitioned by the Polish state, but bought legitimately at the time. Folga-Januszewska and Jakimowicz submitted their purchase request for the works. The Kandinsky watercolour was bought for 500,000 zlotys (about £11,480 today).

Protests against the state were rife in Poland during this period, with widespread support for the strikes and demonstrations organised by the Solidarność (Solidarity) movement. The National Museum staff in Warsaw were also deeply engaged in Solidarity’s actions, said Folga-Januszewska, organising exhibitions to demonstrate opposition to the communist regime. In late 1982, the museum’s famous director Stanisław Lorentz was ousted after 50 years in the job, on account of his support for the protests. The Ministry of Culture and National Heritage replaced him with Juliusz Bursze, a paintings conservator and head of conservation at the National Museum.

In spring 1984, Folga-Januszewska installed the exhibition Concepts of Space in Contemporary Art at the National Museum. Included in the show, in the section of abstract works aptly titled “The Abandoning of Objects”, was the 1928 watercolour by Kandinsky, two other works by him and three pieces by Paul Klee, which had also belonged to the Ralfses’ collection stored in the Katowice depot.

The official line was that the art was sold during the German occupation

In an essay in the exhibition catalogue, the curator’s words seem to perfectly describe Kandinsky sitting in his studio in 1928, manifesting his philosophy in abstract form: “Every artist bent over a sheet of paper, over a surface on which an image is to be created, answers anew the same question: how is the three-dimensional space of objects and the four-dimensional space-time of events rendered on a two-dimensional surface? Depicting the world on a surface, the artist transforms multi-dimensionality into two-dimensionality, which gives evidence of the individuality of his intellect and sensitivity.”

Folga-Januszewska left to go on holiday after the opening. When she returned, the Kandinsky watercolour was gone. “The atmosphere was strange,” she said. “As a curator, I wanted to know what had happened, but nobody wanted to talk about it. The Militia didn’t want to hear any questions, nor Juliusz Bursze.” According to the Polish Ministry of Culture, the theft took place on June 14 1984 and was reported to the police on the same day. “It felt to me like an organised event,” said Folga-Januszewska. “It was widely known that the secret police in Poland were smuggling goods back and forth across the border to make money.”

The black market for looted artworks in Poland after the war was enormous, said Nawojka Cieślińska-Lobkowicz, an art historian, critic and provenance expert on looted Polish and Jewish art and libraries. “Many people were leaving Poland in the 1980s. You have to understand the time, then you can see why an art historian, for example, might take a piece of art across the border and sell it in the west. Anyone could have taken the Kandinsky watercolour from the exhibition. It could have been someone who wanted to emigrate,” she said.

The Polish police closed the case on September 24 1984. By December of the same year, the three-dimensional object that was Kandinsky’s watercolour had travelled through space and time across the Iron Curtain to Sotheby’s in London.


As I mapped the journey of the little Kandinsky, a set of imagined characters began to form in my mind, each stealing the artwork from Warsaw and travelling with it, unframed, across one of the most heavily secured borders in history. It is an easy object to smuggle. It slots into a book, in a pocket, in a suitcase. It slips out of sight. Did the same person who stole it take it across the border? Were they in a car? Sometimes it’s a woman, sometimes a man. Sometimes it’s a Polish official, sometimes a secret service informer, sometimes an art historian or a person trying to emigrate. Perhaps it travelled directly to London or maybe it went via Munich.

On December 5 1984, the Kandinsky watercolour was sold at a public auction at Sotheby’s in Bond Street for £34,100. The catalogue from the auction is littered with curious errors. It misspells “Otto Ralff” as a previous owner. It locates him incorrectly in Munich. And it omits any mention of the National Museum of Warsaw or the presence of the museum’s stamp, which was on the back of the artwork. Missing, too, is any mention of the seller, as though the artwork had come through some direct channel from Ralfs. Sotheby’s has a record of the seller’s identity but declined to share it on grounds of client confidentiality when I asked, some 40 years after the sale. In a statement, it said: “Sotheby’s was instrumental in helping establish the Art Loss Register in 1990 and we check all property offered for sale against all available records of lost or stolen art.” It added that the catalogue for the 1984 sale of the Kandinsky, which was not registered as stolen at the time, “did not imply direct provenance from Otto Ralfs”. It was “not able to speculate as to whether the stamp was visible at that time”, as staff from that period no longer work at the auction house.

Charles Hind is chief curator and curator of drawings at the Royal Institute of British Architects. A cataloguer in the British watercolours department at Sotheby’s in the 1980s, he described to me the likely scenario for acceptance of an artwork such as this one. “Whoever the vendor was, maybe they came to the front desk,” he said, “and they must have come up with a story that was convincing but not important enough to merit inclusion in the catalogue. Something like, ‘Oh my mother bought it at a London gallery in the ’50s.’ That was common — and sometimes perfectly true.”

Back then, before the rise of postwar restitution claims in the 1990s and the 1998 Washington Conference Principles on Nazi-Confiscated Art, thorough and accurate provenance research was not so heavily obligated. “It was used to establish the history of an object,” said Hind. “It could add value and be used as a marketing tool, and it could demonstrate that the object had not been hawked around the open market. What the market loved — and still loves — were materials fresh to the market, and provenance was a useful way of proving that.”

Even today, the rules around provenance research for the selling of art are hazy, as the sale of the Kandinsky last year at Grisebach shows. In Germany, since the 2016 Cultural Property Protection Act, auction houses have been legally obliged to carry out thorough provenance research as part of their commercial operation, particularly where the artwork is suspected to have been taken from its owners due to Nazi persecution, between 1933 and 1945. The gaps in the provenance of the Kandinsky watercolour listed in the Grisebach catalogue suggest that, without knowing the facts, this could have been a possibility. But although Grisebach has 40 experts for this purpose, the data published in the auction catalogue for the Kandinsky watercolour was incorrect. It was based on inaccurate data published in the 1994 catalogue raisonné, the definitive list of an artist’s works.


Wassily Kandinsky at work in his studio, c 1936 © Süddeutsche Zeitung Photo / Alamy
As Hind pointed out, the Sotheby’s staff in 1984 had no such resource at their disposal: “The fact that [they] misread the collector’s name suggests that they didn’t devote a lot of time to it, [but] then again, there were hardly any places you could go at the time to check this. If something was established as stolen, we immediately withdrew it.” In its statement, Sotheby’s said: “Although it is now routine practice to photograph both front and back of works consigned for sale, this was not the case in the 1980s.”

In Hind’s department, the policy was always to open the frame and check the back of the artwork. “If they had, quite possibly alarm bells should have rung. But even if they had seen the stamp, there was no information available at the time about the theft, and relationships across the Iron Curtain in 1984 were very difficult,” he said.

A database of stolen art did exist at that time. And, in November 1985, just under a year after the sale at Sotheby’s, the National Museum in Warsaw contacted the International Foundation of Art Research (IFAR), which duly published a theft alert on the Kandinsky watercolour. In it, the IFAR stated that the museum was aware of the sale at Sotheby’s but had not yet contacted the auction house. It is unclear why this never happened.

The buyer took the watercolour to New York. Whoever it was, the title was not passed on to them at the point of purchase. “In English law, a thief cannot pass on good title,” said Emily Gould, assistant director of the Institute of Art and Law. Despite this, without a claim from the original owners (which, in England, should be made within six years of the sale), buying and selling of the Kandinsky continued through the art market. With every passing year, the ownership of the new buyers starts to gain in legitimacy in various jurisdictions. “Limitation periods [which vary in different territories] are one of the biggest hurdles for claimants for works that were looted during the second world war,” said Gould.

In the 1970s, the art market became a booming global network. Over the next few decades, works were increasingly seen as financial assets, with the prices paid for artists like Kandinsky rising accordingly. In 1931, his oil painting “Deepened Impulse” was listed for sale at 4,000 reichsmarks (£15,800 today) by Otto Ralfs during the collector’s period of insolvency. After Diego Rivera, the Mexican artist, decided he couldn’t afford it, it was bought in the same year by Salomón Hale, a Polish collector living in Mexico. Between 2010 and 2019, the painting was sold three times, finally for almost £6.1mn.


At the end of August this year I called an art dealer in Munich. Galerie Thomas, which specialises in modern and expressionist art, is located in the heart of the city, right next to one of Germany’s biggest museums of modern art, the Pinakothek der Moderne. In 1988, it became the next brief stop for the Kandinsky watercolour, which had travelled through London and New York. Like everyone else, the gallery was reluctant to name names. “It was a New York dealer, with a good eye and good works . . . now deceased,” said Silke Thomas, the daughter of the gallery’s founder. Galerie Thomas exhibited the watercolour in a show of miniature artworks. The watercolour was on the front cover of the matchbox-sized catalogue. “It was such a gem we didn’t have it for long,” she said.

Thomas did not appear to see why anything about the sale of an artwork like this should be problematic. “We buy artworks and sell them on,” she explained. In German civil law, good title can be acquired by the buyer even if the seller does not own the work, unless the buyer is negligently ignoring their suspicion that the seller does not legally own it. In addition, there is no legal obligation to investigate the title of the seller. I asked if there was proof that the work was bought by the previous owner, and by Galerie Thomas, in good faith. She said the fact that it had been sold by Sotheby’s was effectively a guarantee. In Germany, auction houses are legally accorded an “auction privilege” by which rightful ownership, or “title”, is automatically conferred from seller to buyer if a sale takes place in a public auction. This law does not apply in the UK.

Neither Thomas nor Ralph Melcher, the gallery’s provenance researcher who was sitting in on our call, said they knew about the IFAR’s 1985 stolen-art alert. “Nobody was aware the work was stolen,” Thomas said. “Not Sotheby’s, not the dealer, not us, not Vivian Barnett, who wrote the catalogue raisonné. It’s not clear that it was stolen. It went through public auction.” I asked if they had seen the stamp by the National Museum in Warsaw on the back of the watercolour. Thomas said that they didn’t have any record of the stamp in their archived notes, so they probably didn’t notice it. “Everyone was doing as good a job as they could with what they had at the time,” she said.

The last owner of the little Kandinsky is known publicly. The billionaire Inga Maren Otto bought it from Galerie Thomas in 1988. She is the widow of Werner Otto, an entrepreneur who founded a mail-order empire in postwar Germany. Otto kept it in her collection for the next 34 years, until last year. In that time, the artwork’s legal status underwent its final transformation. Through the mere passing of time, the slate was wiped clean. Despite the historical, mass-scale plundering of cultural-heritage objects in and outside of its borders, in German law after 10 years the owner of a moveable item acquires the property if it was owned in good faith. The statute of limitations for claims for restitution of property is 30 years. By the time Otto consigned the work to Grisebach in 2022, she owned it fair and square.

Otto Ralf’s art collection was never far from his mind. “I think about it every day,” he wrote in a letter to the art dealer Ferdinand Möller in 1946. In 1955, Otto died in a car crash, which Käte survived. Afterwards, she continued trying to retrieve their stolen artworks, at one point hiring an art detective to whom she offered a 50 per cent finder’s fee to recover the collection. It was no use. She got stomach ulcers and tried to let go, but every now and then, she saw her artworks appear in galleries and auction houses in Germany, Switzerland and the Netherlands. “Die trauernde Braut” (“Mourning Bride”) by Otto Dix turned up at Galerie Nierendorf in Berlin, but when Käte Ralfs tried to confront the owner, he refused to tell her where he’d got it from. It was sold at Sotheby’s in 2008 for $62,500, with no mention in the provenance that it had once belonged to Otto and Käte Ralfs and came from the depot in Katowice, despite it being published on the German Lost Art Database, which has been publicly available since 2007.

Sotheby’s said the catalogue raisonné for Dix’s works features a series of six watercolours of grieving or mourning widows. “Only one of the six works has the specific title “Die trauernde Braut”, the work Sotheby’s sold in 2008, but, as you can see, the six watercolours are all variations on the same theme. Based on the fact the works are a series and incredibly similar in appearance, and that there is no image [on the German Lost Art Database] of the Dix registered as a loss to Otto and Käte Ralfs, Sotheby’s cannot identify the work we sold in 2008 as the same work registered with the German Lost Art Foundation.”

Käte had no money to push aggressively with lawsuits and, at the time, it was unclear what was legally possible. Even if she could have sued the dealers and auction houses selling her artworks, so much evidence had been destroyed in the Braunschweig bombings. Sometimes she caught a glimpse of the works still in Poland, where, it seemed, the majority of the collection hid. In the early 1950s, two Polish professors based in Krakow, Kazimierz Wojtanowicz and Włodzimierz Hodys, tried to sell works by Paul Klee from the Katowice depot in Germany. Klee died in 1940, so they contacted his son Felix for an appraisal of the works. They told him there was a box of Klees sold “under the table” and they had bought some with dedications to Otto Ralfs for themselves. Felix Klee informed Käte Ralfs, but when she contacted the professors, they denied owning the works.

The list of artworks belonging to the Ralfses’ collection — both those that stayed in Braunschweig and those transported and stored in the depot — is almost impossible to track down, but it was made available to me from the family archive. Many of the works on this list are also named on the German Lost Art Database website. In the case of Kandinsky, who died in 1944 near Paris, his untitled works, such as the pink watercolour, are listed as “a folder of watercolours and drawings”. Klee, who gave titles to his works and created small print-runs of his prints, is much easier to trace.

On May 30 2019, Grisebach sold a Klee drawing from 1927, “Two Souls Up”, at a public auction. The artwork, previously acquired in the mid to late 1950s by a collector in Basel, is listed in the Lost Art Database as belonging to Otto and Käte Ralfs. It is also on the private list of looted artworks that were housed in the depot. Diandra Donecker, director at Grisebach, informed me that the auction house “does not consider the Ralfs’ provenance in itself to be problematic or to hinder trade. The mere entry of a search report for a work of art in Lost Art Database in no way renders a work of art unsellable. It is the circumstances in detail, which must be precisely examined and evaluated by an art dealer, that then determine the further course of action in accordance with the law.” The law is on their side.

Today, artworks from the Katowice depot can be seen in countless private and museum collections across the world, including the Stedelijk Museum in Amsterdam, The Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York, the Los Angeles County Museum of Art and the Kunstmuseum in Basel. The National Museum in Warsaw still owns nine works from the Otto and Käte Ralfs collection, including a pen drawing by Klee, dedicated to Käte Ralfs on her birthday in July 1928. Many other artworks on the depot list are lost entirely for now.

In the aftermath of the Kandinsky watercolour auction at Grisebach, the auction house reassessed what seemed to be its legal certainty about the transaction. It announced it would suspend processing the sale “to obtain a binding clarification”. Since then, the buyer, who remains anonymous, has pulled out. Grisebach did not respond to requests for comment.

The legal clarification is ongoing and, since there is no court hearing registered, this is happening behind closed doors, like almost all art-market disputes. What has come to light is that the Polish Ministry of Culture and National Heritage is not involved in this clarification process. In a statement it said: “[D]espite EU and international obligations, to date the results of the investigation of [the] German authorities dealing with the case of the stolen Kandinsky watercolour have not been made available to [us].” It restated its position regarding the artwork’s legal status. With the ownership stamp still on the back, it said, “no civilised law can legalise such theft”.

Käte Ralfs died in 1995. The Ralfses’ heirs continue to live with remnants of the lost art and the evidence, built up over decades, of the family’s efforts to retrieve it. Artworks still pop up at auction, always several anonymous buyers and sellers removed from the looted collection. In the chain of provenance, a gap exists. For the Ralfses and family, that gap is profound. Artworks, for collectors like them, are personal, taken in as part of the family and remembered, long after the statutes of limitations are up. They can’t let go. And why should they?

FT : Northern Spain’s cooler beaches lure tourists away from scorched south

Northern Spain’s cooler beaches lure tourists away from scorched south
Country shows how climate change could redraw the map and alter the calendar of European tourism

Foreign travellers poured into temperate northern Spain this summer as scorching temperatures on the southern coast raised questions about the effect of climate change on tourism in the heartland of the Mediterranean beach holiday.

The northern regions of Galicia, Asturias and Cantabria — long perceived as too rainy for summer breaks — recorded a huge jump in the number of international tourists in August, which rose 47 per cent from a year ago to 435,500.

Although visitor numbers remained higher in southern regions including Andalucia and Valencia, where growth was modest, the boom in the north coincided with a spate of extreme temperature warnings in the south and heat fatigue among some tourists.

After years of predictions about hot places becoming unbearable and cold places becoming more agreeable, Spain is already showing how climate change could redraw the map — and alter the calendar — of European tourism.

“The north of Spain is rising,” said Alberto Terol, an entrepreneur and hotelier who is on the board of real estate company GMP.


An undulating region of coves, estuaries and winding coastal roads, he recalls summers in the north 20 years ago when it was “raining, raining, raining all the time”. The precipitation has not vanished, but today the weather “is milder, warmer; the water in the ocean is also warmer than it used to be”, he said.

At the same time prices remain relatively affordable — both for real estate and the region’s highly rated cuisine — at least away from the Basque country and Santander, the well-heeled capital of Cantabria.

“As you move to the west, to Asturias and Galicia, prices get lower, which is why a lot of people are now looking for properties in Galicia in particular,” Terol said.


Decisions about where to holiday seem trivial set against the threats climate change poses to agriculture, water supplies and public health. But if rising temperatures force southern Spain to overhaul its tourism model the consequences for the country are profound given its economic dependence on the sector.

Spain is the second-most visited country in the world after France, logging 72mn international tourist arrivals in 2022 and ranking just ahead of the US, according to World Tourism Organization data. Tourism accounts for 12-13 per cent of Spain’s gross domestic product.

The northern trend includes Spanish holiday makers too. Carmen Mendiburu, a student and coffee barista, spent summer holidays as a child in Almería in the south, but this year opted for the northern coast. “Living in Madrid where the amount of trees is minimal and it gets to 40 degrees, I didn’t really feel like going to the south to die of heat even more,” she said.

The single largest group of foreign tourists in Spain are Britons, followed by the French then Germans.

Galicia’s regional government said it was seeing “very significant growth” in the numbers of international visitors, who account for 30 per cent of all tourism. It was keen to sell all the region’s attractions — nature, boating, wine tourism — but noted: “It is true that the weather is favourable in the summer, when temperatures are particularly pleasant.”

The southern coast, by contrast, was this year hit by a series of brutal heatwaves.

In the seaside provinces of Andalucia, whose traditional Costa del Sol tourist magnets include Málaga, Marbella and Torremolinos, Spain’s meteorological agency issued 63 severe heat warnings in August, which were triggered when coastal temperatures hit 39C. It also issued six extreme heat warnings, made when seaside temperatures reach 42C, according to data compiled by Dominic Royé, head of data science at the Climate Research Foundation.

Investors and property executives are not predicting doom for the southern tourism industry, which took off internationally in the 1960s during a “Spain is different” ad campaign launched by the Franco dictatorship. But in the long term they say the south must adapt to fewer visitors in the hottest months and promise “winter sun” to woo people with more favourable temperatures over the rest of the year.

“What can happen is a change in the seasonality,” said Iñigo Molina, director of the Andalucia office of property company Colliers. “Already it’s been a long time since anybody played golf here in the middle of the day in the summer. Only the craziest. The golfers are here from September to May.”

Two years ago, the government said in a landmark long-term strategy report that the travel industry would need to “reformulate” to adjust to climate-driven changes in tourism “across both time and territory”.

But not everyone sees change as inevitable. Andalucia still attracted 1.4mn foreign visitors in August, up 11 per cent from a year ago, according to the national statistics institute. Ramón Estalella, secretary-general of CEHAT, a holiday accommodation trade group, said hotel occupation rates were at record highs in the south. “There’s one thing that’s curious. It’s 45 degrees and you see a beach full of people. And not under parasols. They’re sunbathing,” he said.

Pryconsa, a developer, is building new properties in Huelva, an Atlantic-facing part of Andalucia where temperatures are less extreme. But it is also constructing 100 potential second homes close to a beach in Asturias — priced from €255,000 for three bedrooms — in its biggest bet yet on the region.

“There is very strong momentum in the north,” said José Román Blanco Álvarez, its promotions director. “We see more projects like this in areas where you have the right environment, scenery, and the infrastructure links.” The north’s lack of crowds was another attraction, he noted. But that may be about to change.

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Siemens Healthineers (SHL TH) +3%
    • Siemens Healthineers Is Said to Mull Options for Diagnostics Arm
  • Andritz (AZ2 TH) +2.1%
  • Worldline (WO6 TH) +2.1%
  • BMW (BMW TH) +2.1%
    • *BMW 3Q AUTOMOTIVE EBIT MARGIN 9.8%, EST. 9.63%
  • AMS-Osram (DQW1 TH) +1.9%
  • Adyen (1N8 TH) +1.8%
    • Adyen’s €21 Billion, 21x P/E Need Revenue vs. Cost-Hike Clarity
  • Just Eat Takeaway (T5W TH) +1.5%
  • Vonovia (VNA TH) +1.5%
    • Vonovia 9M Loss EU3.81B Vs. Profit EU2.21B Y/y, Dims Outlook
  • Akzo Nobel (AKU1 TH) +1.3%
  • Bayer (BAYN TH) -0.1%
  • Vestas (VWSB TH) -0.9%
  • Accor (ACR TH) -1.1%
    • Accor Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 33 euros

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Siemens Healthineers (SHL TH) +3%
    • Siemens Healthineers Is Said to Mull Options for Diagnostics Arm
  • BMW (BMW TH) +2%
    • *BMW 3Q AUTOMOTIVE EBIT MARGIN 9.8%, EST. 9.63%
  • Vonovia (VNA TH) +1.6%
    • Vonovia 9M Loss EU3.81B Vs. Profit EU2.21B Y/y, Dims Outlook
  • Siemens Energy (ENR TH) +1.3%
MDAX:
  • ProSieben (PSM TH) +1.6%
  • SMA Solar (S92 TH) +1.3%
  • Hugo Boss (BOSS TH) +1.1%
  • Lufthansa (LHA TH) +1%
  • Aixtron (AIXA TH) +1%
SDAX:
  • Kontron (KTN TH) +3.7%
    • Kontron Sees FY Net Income Above EU72M, Saw EU66M
  • Krones (KRN TH) +3.7%
    • Krones 3Q Revenue Matches Estimates
  • PVA TePla (TPE TH) +3.2%
  • Thyssenkrupp Nucera AG & Co KGaa (NCH2 TH) +2.8%
  • PNE AG (PNE3 TH) +2.1%
  • Bilfinger (GBF TH) -1.7%
  • MorphoSys (MOR TH) -2.6%

WSJ : Sam Bankman-Fried Is Convicted of Fraud in FTX Collapse

Sam Bankman-Fried Is Convicted of Fraud in FTX Collapse
New York federal jury finds crypto exchange’s founder guilty of stealing billions of dollars from customers

FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried was convicted Thursday of stealing billions of dollars from customers of the doomed crypto exchange, in what prosecutors called one of the biggest financial frauds in U.S. history.

A New York federal jury convicted him of all seven counts he faced. The verdict capped the stunning fall of the onetime crypto king, whose shaggy-haired, boy-genius persona helped catapult FTX into a powerhouse trading platform that sponsored sports teams and ran glitzy ads featuring football great Tom Brady, model Gisele Bündchen and comedian Larry David.

The crypto exchange abruptly crashed a year ago, with customers losing billions of dollars. Bankman-Fried, 31 years old, was indicted in December 2022 and agreed to leave his home in the Bahamas to face an array of fraud charges. Near the end of the monthlong trial, Bankman-Fried took the risky move of testifying in his own defense.

Jurors, who walked stoically into the courtroom, reached their verdict after just a few hours of deliberations. Bankman-Fried, who stood and faced the jury, cast his head down after the verdict was read. His parents both held their heads in their hands, and his mother cried.

A sentencing date was set for March 28, 2024. He could face a decadeslong prison term.

“We respect the jury’s decision. But we are very disappointed with the result,” said Bankman-Fried lawyer Mark Cohen. “Mr. Bankman-Fried maintains his innocence and will continue to vigorously fight the charges against him.”

Jurors declined to comment on the deliberations as they left the courthouse. One said she was exhausted and ready to put the trial behind her.

For federal prosecutors, the verdict was an expected victory after putting forward what many observers saw as a powerful case that included 18 witnesses.

“While the cryptocurrency industry might be new, and the players like Sam Bankman-Fried might be new, this kind of corruption is as old as time,” said Damian Williams, the U.S. attorney in Manhattan. “This case has always been about lying, cheating and stealing, and we have no patience for it.”

His office had accused Bankman-Fried of being a greedy billionaire who lied to customers, investors and lenders while flying on private jets and hobnobbing with current and former heads of state. Prosecutors presented evidence and testimony showing Bankman-Fried was the architect of a scheme to siphon FTX money to repay the debts of its sister hedge fund, Alameda Research, bankroll risky investments, buy luxury real estate and cover hundreds of millions of dollars in political donations.

His closest former allies took the stand as government witnesses and testified that Bankman-Fried directed them to commit crimes, including secretly changing FTX’s code to allow Alameda to borrow virtually unlimited amounts from the exchange. Caroline Ellison, the government’s star witness and Bankman-Fried’s ex-girlfriend, told jurors that while she was the chief executive officer of Alameda, he instructed her to doctor balance sheets to fool the hedge fund’s lenders. The lying and stealing left her in “a constant state of dread,” she said.

Bankman-Fried’s lawyers argued that he wasn’t the movie villain prosecutors described him as but a math nerd and entrepreneur trying his best to build a business in an emerging industry. “In the real world, unlike the movie world, things can get messy,” Cohen told the jury.

Bankman-Fried’s decision to take the stand appeared perhaps his only shot at changing the momentum of the case.

On his first day of testimony, he confidently told jurors that he was a well-meaning player in the Wild West of crypto and that he frequently met with lawmakers in Washington in hopes of building a regulatory framework for the industry. He said he never defrauded customers, but regretted not instituting better risk management at FTX before its collapse in November 2022. “We sure should have,” he said.

Under cross-examination, Bankman-Fried floundered as a prosecutor contrasted his many public statements with his private ones in an attempt to show he was a liar. Bankman-Fried gave evasive answers and said he had little recollection of past comments prosecutors cited. During closing arguments, Assistant U.S. Attorney Nicolas Roos told jurors that Bankman-Fried said he didn’t recall at least 140 times. “He approached every question like up was down and down was up,” Roos said.

Bankman-Fried founded FTX in 2019. By 2021, the exchange had millions of customers and roughly $1 billion in annual revenue, Bankman-Fried testified. It imploded after the crypto website CoinDesk published in early November 2022 what purported to be a leaked Alameda balance sheet, causing a run on FTX customer funds.

Presiding over the trial was 78-year-old U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan, who kept the case moving by scolding prosecutors and defense lawyers for asking unnecessary questions while providing moments of levity with quips about the Brooklyn Dodgers and recollections of working in his father’s deli as a child.

Bankman-Fried still has other legal troubles looming. He is facing additional charges that could go to trial in March, including allegations of bank fraud and bribery conspiracies. Those charges were added after the initial indictment and separated from the first trial because of litigation in the Bahamas over the terms of his extradition. Kaplan instructed prosecutors to let him know by Feb. 1 if they plan to proceed with those charges.

The jury, composed of nine women and three men, ranged in age from 33 to 68. The jurors included a former investment banker, a high school librarian and an unemployed social worker.

Prosecutors built their case around the testimony of Ellison and two other members of Bankman-Fried’s inner circle, all of whom agreed to cooperate with prosecutors after pleading guilty to fraud and other offenses. The trio corroborated each other’s accounts, which were bolstered by contemporaneous documents and Signal chats that prosecutors showed the jury. All three pointed to Bankman-Fried as the mastermind of the fraud and accused him of covering his tracks, including by using an auto-delete function on messaging apps.

Nishad Singh, Bankman-Fried’s childhood friend and FTX’s former director of engineering, testified about learning in September 2022 that Alameda had used $13 billion in FTX customer funds and was unable to pay it back. Singh said he was distressed at the time and spoke to Bankman-Fried about the financial hole in a meeting on the balcony of the Bahamas penthouse apartment they shared. Bankman-Fried was unconcerned and thought the money could eventually be paid back, Singh recalled.

“I’m not sure what there is to worry about,” Bankman-Fried said, according to Singh.

Ellison testified that Bankman-Fried was a risk-taker who was comfortable with lying and stealing as long as it benefited the greater good. To attract FTX customers, he cultivated an appearance “as a smart, competent, somewhat eccentric founder,” she said. He regularly posted on social media, spoke to journalists and testified before Congress to promote FTX as a safe place to trade.

Even when he knew FTX was on the brink of collapse, Bankman-Fried posted on Twitter, the social-media platform now known as X, to falsely reassure customers, Ellison testified. Prosecutors backed up her testimony by showing jurors a Nov. 7, 2022, post in which he wrote, “FTX is fine. Assets are fine.”

Bankman-Fried pushed back during his testimony, telling jurors he wasn’t involved in Alameda’s operation after appointing Ellison and another employee as co-CEOs in summer 2021. He only learned of Alameda’s rampant spending of customer funds in fall 2022, he told jurors. At FTX, he said, he was involved in decision-making at a high level, but his deputies were largely self-directed.

Assistant U.S. Attorney Danielle Sassoon drilled into his testimony in cross-examination, casting doubt on his assertion of being a hands-off boss and highlighting even relatively innocuous statements—such as why he didn’t cut his hair—to show his equivocations. The tense exchanges between Sassoon and Bankman-Fried gripped jurors.

“You think of yourself as a smart guy?” she asked.

“In many ways. Not in all ways,” he replied.

>>> What to look at today - 3rd of November 2023

European stock futures rose, following a rally across Asian equities and currencies as traders embraced riskier assets on prospects the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle is nearing an end.  The MSCI’s Asia benchmark gained more than 1% on Friday, on track for its best week in two months. Gauges in Hong Kong led the region’s advance. US equity futures slipped following underwhelming results from Apple Inc. Contracts for Euro Stoxx 50 ticked higher ahead of eurozone unemployment data Friday.  The Korean won rose more than 1% against the greenback, the most among Asian currencies. A Bloomberg index of the dollar slipped for the third session, set for its steepest weekly decline since mid-July.  Traders are also turning their attention to the US nonfarm payroll data due later in the day for further conviction on the Fed’s rate path. Bloomberg Economics expects the pace of hiring to slow to less than half of September’s strong gain. Data released ahead of payrolls showed US labor productivity advanced by the most in three years, helping to alleviate the inflationary impact of recent wage growth.   Long-dated Treasury yields fell Thursday. The 10-year benchmark slipped nearly eight basis points. Trading in Treasuries in Asia will be closed given the holiday in Japan.  UBS anticipates the 10-year Treasury yield to fall to 3.5% by June next year, as the Fed shifts its attention from rate hikes to rate cuts, according to Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for Americas, at UBS Global Wealth Management. “The improving outlook for a softish landing for the US economy should also provide a positive backdrop for equities,” she said. Others hold a more cautious view. Hedge fund K2 Asset Management is predicting that benchmark 10-year Treasury yields will rise back to 5% — from 4.66% — while Franklin Templeton says they could peak at 5.25% — a level last seen in 2007. Barclays Plc co-head of global markets Stephen Dainton said it is “very unlikely” the Fed is done tightening policy. Oil was set for a second weekly loss as the Israel-Hamas war remained contained and clouds appeared on the demand horizon. Gold headed for its first weekly decline in four. Bitcoin fell Friday after Sam Bankman-Fried was convicted of a massive fraud that led to the collapse of his FTX exchange. US After Hours Busy earnings session, led by AAPL -3.4%; BILL -28%, FTNT -16.7%, FND -14.7%, FOXF -14.6%, TEAM -10.4%, BKNG -4.2%, OLED -4.2%, COIN -4% also lower on earnings; DOCN +18.4%, SQ +15.9%, TRUP +10%, PARA +4.9% higher on earnings.

Nikkei +1.10% Hang Seng +2.60% CSI +0.80% Shanghai +0.67% Shenzen +1.13%

Eur$ CNH CNY JPY GBP CHF RUB TRY WTI$ Gold BTC ETH

S&P -0.08% Nasdaq -0.29% EuroStoxx +0.38% FTSE +0.38% Dax +0.32% SMI +0.51%

Macro :
- JPMorgan Strategists Say Earnings Weakness Due to Commodities
- Arabica Coffee Surges After Stockpiles Plunge to 24-Year Low

Keep an eye on :
- AKER NO : Aker 3Q Net Asset Value per Share NOK862 Vs. NOK770 Q/Q
- AAPL US : Apple Posts Fourth Straight Sales Drop, Longest Slump Since 2001
- MT NA : US Steel Auction Said to Near End With Site Visits Next Week
- ATO FP : Onepoint’s Layani Plans to Be Atos Investor for Long Time: Echos
- CS FP : Axa 9M Revenue EU78.8B Vs. EU78B Y/y
- BG AV : Bawag Gets US Regulatory Approval for Idaho First Bank Deal
- BESI NA : BE Semiconductor to Build Ho Chi Minh City Plant: Media
- BMW GY : BMW’s Automotive Margin Beats Estimates as EV Sales Rise
- BRNL NA : Brunel 3Q Ebit EU18.8M Vs. EU17.4M Y/y
- CAV1V FH : Caverion 3Q EPS Beats Estimates
- CTT PL : CTT 9M Net Income EU35.5M Vs. EU28.3M Y/y
- COR PL : Corticeira Amorim 9M Net Income EU67M Vs. EU64.2M Y/y (1)
- EDP PL : EDP 9M Net Income EU946M Vs. EU518M Y/y
- FFARM NA : ForFarmers Names Kerkhoven Interim CFO; Underlying Ebitda +33.6%
- GBLB BB : GBL 9M Cash Profit EU371M Vs. EU377M Y/y
- KTN GY : Kontron Sees FY Net Income Above EU72M, Saw EU66M
- KRN GY : Krones 3Q Revenue Matches Estimates
- LTMC IM : Lottomatica Sees SKS365 FY 2023 Revenue About €300m
- MC FP : LVMH’s Thelios Buys Safilo Plant in Longarone, Italy (Oct. 31)
- MAERSKB DC : Maersk 3Q Ebitda Meets Estimates
- NEOEN FP : Neoen 3Q Revenue EU120.5M Vs. EU130.5M Y/y
- NOS PL : NOS 3Q Net Income EU45.9M Vs. EU106M Y/y
- RBI AV : Raiffeisen Boosts NII Guidance, Still Assessing Russia Unit
- SHUR BB : Shurgard 3Q Property Operating Revenue EU90.7M Vs. EU85M Y/y
- SHL GY : Siemens Healthineers Is Said to Mull Options for Diagnostics Arm
- SIFG NA : SIF 3Q Adjusted Ebitda EU7.1M Vs. EU7.8M Y/y
- SNBN SW : Switzerland, Banks Discuss New Rules to Stop Bank Runs: Reuters
- GLE FP : SocGen’s Revenue, Profit Slump as Hedges Hurt French Retail Unit
- SOLVB BB ; Solvay 3Q Adjusted Ebitda Misses Estimates
- SOLB BB : Solvay CEO Ilham Kadri to Become CEO of Syensqo Standalone Co
- SPIE FP : Spie 3Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- SREN SW : Swiss Re 9M Net Income $2.47B Vs. Loss $285M Y/y
- STLAM IM : Stellantis Deal Includes $19 Billion in US Investment, UAW Says
- SYAB GY : Synlab Boards Say Cinven Offer Doesn’t Reflect Long-Term Value
- TEMN SW : Temenos Falls; FuW Says Takeover Could Be Off The Table For Now
- TIT IM : Vivendi Urges Telecom Italia to Look at Merlyn Plan for Grid (1)
- VIV FP : Vivendi Urges Telecom Italia to Look at Merlyn Plan for Grid (1)
- VON GY : Vonovia 9M Loss EU3.81B Vs. Profit EU2.21B Y/y, Dims Outlook