>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • AAN -26.4%, CARG -14.5%, U -14.3%, SIBN -11.9%, BMO -6.6%, WDAY -6.1% (acquiring HiredScore), CLVT -6%, ATSG -5.6%, IRBT -5.5%, ASUR -5.3%, EYE -4.8%, AESI -3.9%, ACHR -3.7%, STAA -3.6%, HLX -3.4%, CEG -3.2%, HSIC -3.2%, PLOW -3.1%, EFC -2.4% (cutting monthly dividend), PWSC -1.4%, DDS -1.3%, SBAC -1.3%, FSK -1.2%, ADTN -1.1%, SKYT -1%, LOW -1%
Other news:
  • LUNR -24.2% (continued momentum to the downside; issues update)
  • U -14.2% (details costs associated with exit or disposal activities)
  • FGEN -14.1% (regains rights to Roxadustat)
  • FIVN -8.5% (convertible notes offering)
  • AESI -3.9% (entered into a definitive agreement with Hi Crush Inc. to acquire all of Hi-Crush's Permian Basin proppant production assets and North American logistics operations in a transaction valued at $450 mln)
  • PRGS -3.5% (convertible notes offering)
  • UVSP -2.8% (files mixed shelf)
  • HES -2.7% (files mixed shelf)
  • MUR -1.8% (maintains production guidance)
  • GMAB -1.5% (Genmab and AbbVie (ABBV) receive Priority Review for the sBLA for Epcoritamab)
  • SHAK -1.1% (restatements of prior financial statements)
  • DLTR -0.9% (resolves DoJ investigation)

>>> UIS Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • PUBM +28.1%, TMDX +24.8%, HIMS +21.9%, EVER +17.9%, ARQT +14.6%, ZM +13.2%, HLIO +11.2%, TREX +7.6%, TARS +5.5%, TILE +4.8%, DORM +4.7%, BEAM +4.7%, BNS +3.6%, STRL +3.4%, SLCA +2.8%, AEP +2.7% (appoints interim CEO), CRI +1.9%, NUVL +1.6%, SNN +1.5%, IIPR +1.4%, AES +1.3%, DRQ +1.2%, SWTX +1.2%, ADUS +0.8%
Other news:
  • JANX +84.9% (announces encouraging data from trials)
  • CDXS +6.6% (licensing agreement with Roche)
  • AMH +4% (replacing DOC in S&P MidCap 400)
  • SCLX +3.9% (enters into term sheet with Virpax Pharmaceuticals)
  • BGNE +3% ( FDA has accepted a Biologics License Application for TEVIMBRA in combination with fluoropyrimidine- and platinum-containing chemotherapy)
  • PRTC +2.9% (PureTech Founded Entity Akili (AKLI) Announces Positive Results from Shionogi's Phase 3 Clinical Trial of Localized Version of Akili's EndeavorRx for Pediatric ADHD Patients in Japan)
  • AL +2.4% (long-term lease agreements for Boeing aircraft)
  • CDE +2% (advancing Silvertip exploration)
  • RCM +1.7% (Coliseum capital issues open letter to board)
  • NWBI +1.4% (appoints new CFO)
  • TCBK +1.4% (increases dividend)
  • LAAC +1% (appoints new CEO)

>>> Macy's beats by $0.47, reports revs in-line; guides FY25 EPS in-line, revs i

Macy's beats by $0.47, reports revs in-line; guides FY25 EPS in-line, revs in-line (19.30)
  • Reports Q4 (Jan) earnings of $2.45 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.47 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.98; revenues fell 1.7% year/year to $8.12 bln vs the $8.07 bln FactSet Consensus.
    • Comparable sales, on a 13-week basis, were down 5.4% on an owned basis and down 4.2% on an owned-plus-licensed basis.
  • Co issues in-line guidance for FY24, sees EPS of $2.45-2.85, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $2.77 FactSet Consensus; sees FY24 revs of $22.2-22.9 bln vs. $22.71 bln FactSet Consensus.
    • Expects comparable owned plus licensed plus marketplace sales change (52 week basis for both 2024 and 2023) down ~1.5% to up 1.5% versus 2023

Macy's announces its new strategy, A Bold New Chapter, designed to return Macy’s, Inc. to enterprise growth
  • Strengthens the Macy's Nameplate, Accelerates Luxury Growth and Simplifies and Modernizes End-to-End Operations.
  • Focuses Macy's resources by closing approximately 150 underproductive locations through 2026.
  • Prioritizes Macy's investments in approximately 350 go-forward locations.
  • Expands Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury footprint by up to 45 locations through 2026.
  • Monetizes $600-$750 mln of assets through 2026.

>>> SpringWorks Therapeutics misses by $0.20 (48.48)

SpringWorks Therapeutics misses by $0.20 (48.48)
  • Reports Q4 (Dec) loss of $1.44 per share, $0.20 worse than the FactSet Consensus of ($1.24).
  • Revenues: OGSIVEO net product revenues were $5.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2023, the first partial quarter of the U.S. launch.
    Research and Development (R&D) Expenses: R&D expenses were $43.7 million and $150.5 million for the fourth quarter and full year 2023, respectively, compared to $37.9 million and $146.1 million for the comparable periods of 2022. The increase in R&D expense for the fourth quarter and year ended 2023 was primarily attributable to an increase in employee costs associated with head count growth, partially offset by a decrease in costs related to drug manufacturing, clinical trials and other research.
  • Co Submitted Marketing Authorization Application to the European Medicines Agency for nirogacestat for the treatment of desmoid tumors --
  • Co Presented positive topline data from Phase 2b ReNeu trial of mirdametinib in patients with NF1-PN; on track to submit New Drug Application in first half of 2024 --
  • Co Submitted IND for SW-682 and received FDA clearance to proceed with Phase 1a trial --

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers
  • Gapping up:
    • PUBM +31.6%, TMDX +29%, HIMS +20%, EVER +12.3%, ZM +12%, HLIO +11.2%, TREX +7.6%, DORM +4.7%, SNN +3.7%, STRL +3.4%, AEP +3.4%, IIPR +3.2%, PLOW +1.7%, DRQ +1.2%, AES +1%
  • Gapping down:
    • AAN -27.4%, ASUR -20.8%, U -15%, CARG -13.1%, SIBN -11.9%, IRBT -6.8%, ATSG -6.7%, WDAY -6.6%, FATE -6.6%, ACHR -3.9%, STAA -3.6%, HLX -3.4%, EFC -2.5%, TILE -2.4%, PWSC -1.4%, DDS -1.3%, SBAC -1.3%, FSK -1.2%, ADTN -1.1%, SKYT -1%

FT : EQT raises €22bn for private equity deals

EQT raises €22bn for private equity deals
Stockholm-based buyout group is predicting a revival of listings as it raises largest fund in its history

European private equity group EQT has raised €22bn for the largest buyout fund in its 30-year history, following other marquee names in managing to raise substantial sums of money when many other firms are struggling.

It took the Stockholm-listed manager more than two years to raise the fund, which had an initial target of €20bn and is 40 per cent larger than the previous €15.6bn pool closed three years ago, EQT said on Tuesday.

The successful fundraise is the latest demonstration of how investor cash is flowing in greater quantities to the most established buyout groups. Last year EQT’s peers, including CVC Capital Partners and Warburg Pincus, raised record funds, while many smaller, newer groups struggled.

Speaking to the Financial Times before the closing, Per Franzen, head of EQT’s private equity business, predicted “a pick-up in deal activity in private markets”, as other private equity groups put their best-performing companies up for sale in order to monetise investments and spur new fundraising.

“We see that many of the players on the sidelines the past two years are more actively pursuing monetisation opportunities,” he said.

Investor belief that central banks are pausing interest rate increases has led to a revival of initial public offering activity, he added.

“There are real signs that IPO markets are reopening in Europe and the United States,” said Franzen. EQT is preparing some large investments to be ready to go public, he said, if market conditions remain amenable.

However, there might be fewer bargains in the United Kingdom after a valuation gap with United States markets was closing, he said. 

“In some of the companies that have been listed in the UK, the discount they traded at versus key peers in the US had widened to record levels,” said Franzen. “Now with the recent market correction, some of those opportunities have gone away.”

EQT historically has invested in mid and large sized companies across Europe and North America in the healthcare, technology and services sectors.

The firm said that an “increasing share” of its fund investors came from wealthy individuals as the group seeks to diversify the types of investors that commit to its funds. 

In total, private wealth channels accounted for about 10 per cent of the fund, showing the increasingly important role that retail money is playing in the private equity industry.

Historically, firms have largely received investors from large institutional investors such as pension plans and sovereign wealth funds.

The bumper fundraising haul is the latest boost to a firm that has expanded its assets under management rapidly since going public in 2019.

Over the past few years, EQT struck deals to buy Barings Private Equity Asia and US real estate investor Exeter Property Group.

EQT has also scaled up the size of existing businesses, including infrastructure. Its latest infrastructure fund is seeking as much as €21bn. In total, EQT now manages €232bn in assets under management. CVC, which is planning to list in Amsterdam this year, has €188bn under management while Paris-based Ardian manages $160bn.

The firm has been quick to deploy the new fund into new investments even before its closing, striking a series of deals last year, even as the wider market for dealmaking slowed. 

Among them was the £4.5bn takeover of UK veterinary pharmaceuticals company Dechra, one of the largest leveraged buyouts in the UK last year.

EQT also this month made an offer to take private French digital music business Believe using cash from its latest flagship buyout fund.

FT : Wirecard whistleblower slams new German law as too weak

Wirecard whistleblower slams new German law as too weak
Pav Gill says fines are ‘slap on the wrist’ as he prepares platform to help companies with compliance

The Wirecard insider who exposed the fraud that led to its collapse has attacked Germany’s whistleblower protection law, dismissing fines for non-compliance as a “slap on the wrist” and lamenting its failure to force companies to offer anonymous reporting channels to staff.

“It’s just crazy, because it’s thrown cold water on the objective of the whole thing,” Pav Gill told the Financial Times ahead of the Tuesday launch of his start-up, Confide. “Most whistleblowing is anonymous because of the real fear of reprisal and exposure.”

His comments come as whistleblowing and governance are in focus on both sides of the Atlantic. A recent US Supreme Court ruling has made it harder for companies to retaliate against whistleblowers.

Gill was a lawyer inside Wirecard when the German payments group was valued at €24bn and regarded as Europe’s most promising technology business. He was forced out after trying to investigate internal complaints of forged documents and suspect payments in Singapore. Helped by his mother, he blew the whistle, providing the FT with files that led to the unravelling of Wirecard’s accounting fraud in 2020.

The scandal gave impetus to an EU whistleblowing directive issued in 2019 that has since been implemented in a patchwork of laws across the bloc that all came into force by December, creating the opportunity for Confide to assist the half-million companies rushing to comply.

As with rules about data and online surveillance, or climate impact reporting, Europe sets standards for corporate behaviour that impose costs beyond its borders. “The EU’s biggest export industry is regulation,” joked Singaporean Gill, who is establishing Confide’s EU base in The Hague, a centre of international justice, with support from the city’s development agency.

Under the directive, companies with more than 50 staff must have channels to facilitate, log, assess and, where appropriate, investigate complaints, while some classes of business, such as those in finance or at risk of money laundering, must do so regardless of size. The tasks involved can be outsourced.

Confide’s platform allows whistleblowers to anonymously report complaints and respond to queries, offering companies secure case management, reporting and a paper trail to demonstrate compliance.

Gill contrasted Spain’s approach, which includes fines of up to €1mn for serious offences, with that of Germany where the maximum fine is just €50,000.

Passage of the defanged German law resulted from a political compromise after conservative opposition to the scope of initial legislation and its potential cost on business. Danyal Bayaz, a Green politician, said: “It seems that the memories from the Wirecard scandal are fading quickly not only among those accused of fraud.”

Pressure group Transparency International has argued that implementation fell short of the directive’s aims across Europe, with “a lack of general protection for whistleblowers who report corruption, and no obligation to examine their reports in several EU countries”, and that none of 20 countries examined “fully meets best practice”.

Confide, which offers encrypted channels and services for investigating and categorising complaints, highlights tensions in regulations that harden protections for whistleblowers in some countries, while also giving boardrooms greater opportunity to address issues in private.

“I want to help companies to have less Pavs out there, to have less of me,” said Gill. “If you have something workable, trustable in place, then you will have less external whistleblowing cases.”

He added: “I’ve been through it on both sides of the spectrum, I’ve sat from the general counsel side and I’ve seen how companies always struggle in dealing with misconduct issues when they are raised, how poorly it’s managed.”

“When you’re talking to people that actually use these systems, like a big mining company or a big oil and gas company, they are just completely inundated with thousands of these reports a month: ranging from ‘there is not enough coffee in the pantry’, to delayed shipments, procurement concerns, vendor concerns — but also real stuff like potential criminal, potential money laundering concerns.”

His pitch is not about empowering the rank and file. “Frankly, not many companies like that,” he said. “They may lip-service it, but it’s always seen as employees versus us.”

Instead, he frames it as “an early detection tool to suss out what’s going on” — and he accepts that unscrupulous leaders could benefit as they did at Wirecard.

At the German group, he said, “they created this hotline after I was investigating them, and the scary thing is that it was going straight to Jan Marsalek” — a senior executive with ties to Russian intelligence who remains on the run.

Hence the importance of anonymity. “You could be the most fraudulent company like Wirecard. What it allows them is to see how visible the fraud is to their own employees and vendors. The only difference now is they can’t go take revenge because they don’t know who they are,” he said.

An audit trail for internal concerns might also make it harder for senior executives to argue — like former Wirecard chief executive Markus Braun has in his ongoing criminal trial — that they were blind to issues inside the companies they ran.

Confide is raising seed capital, after initial funding from angel investors, and Gill is going after a market in which the “G” in ESG starts to receive the sort of attention and demands for reporting that has forced companies to account for their environmental and societal impact. “Whether it’s FTX, Boeing, the Post Office scandal, or even Wirecard, they are all governance failures,” he said.

Highlighting recrimination at Boeing, following a series of manufacturing and safety issues, Gill said: “A possible idea is that shareholders have access to whistleblowing reports. That would be a very powerful stick from a check and balance point of view.”

FT : China’s Shenzhen rolls out plan to boost car exports

China’s Shenzhen rolls out plan to boost car exports
Technology hub’s strategy to fuel western fears over rising competition for domestic manufacturers

China’s southern technology hub Shenzhen has rolled out plans for a big expansion of car exports, a plan that is likely to fuel western fears about rising Chinese competition for domestic manufacturers.

The municipal government of Shenzhen, where the world’s largest electric vehicle maker BYD has its headquarters, unveiled 24 measures including support for factory construction, opening new sea routes and allowing another 20 companies to export second-hand cars, according to a statement released by the city’s commerce bureau late on Monday. 

The policy was crafted to “seize the opportunity from the development of car exports” and build an industrial cluster bridging car production, shipping and trade, the statement said, while aiming to turn Shenzhen into “a new generation world-class auto city”.

Local officials also said they would introduce services to support car exporters, including improving export insurance, speeding up tax refunds and encouraging Chinese banks to provide consumer financing for overseas car buyers. The plan also called for exporters to purchase more car-carrying ships to create a Chinese-owned fleet of roll-on, roll-off vessels.

BYD has just started to increase global exports. The EV maker commissioned its first 7,000-vehicle-carrying ship in January. On Monday, after a month-long journey from Shenzhen, Chinese-made cars began rolling off BYD’s Explorer No 1 into a German port for the first time. The company plans to expand its ship fleet to eight in the next two years.

Shenzhen’s plans come as concerns grow globally that China’s car industry has vastly overbuilt domestic capacity and that many of the cars rolling off domestic production lines will flood into western markets. 

Brussels in September launched an anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese electric vehicles “distorting” the EU market, and US officials this month warned Beijing that Washington and its allies would take action if China tried to ease its industrial overcapacity problem by dumping goods on international markets.

Last year, China overtook Japan as the world’s largest car exporter, sending 5mn vehicles overseas. The value of the country’s car exports jumped 74 per cent from a year earlier to $78bn, according to Chinese customs data.

Analysts at research group Bernstein have estimated that China has the capacity to make close to 40mn vehicles a year, but only has domestic demand for 20mn to 25mn cars. Moreover, the number of car plants in China continues to grow. 

While local governments such as Shenzhen are eager to increase exports to support the local economy, China’s central government has indicated the country should take a more cautious approach. The commerce ministry has called for the “healthy development” of the country’s overseas EV expansion, including co-operating more with foreign partners and utilising free trade deals.


Zhang Xiang, a car analyst with the World Digital Economy Forum, said that Shenzhen’s plans set an example for other local governments. “The guideline comes just in time as Chinese carmakers including BYD are attempting to transform themselves into global players from domestic companies,” he said.

Zhang added that government support for second-hand car exports could help find a home for the growing number of abandoned internal combustion engine vehicles in China as buyers switch to EVs. The EV penetration rate climbed to 35.7 per cent in 2023.

Shenzhen’s commerce bureau and BYD did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

FT : Shein could boost falling expected valuation with London listing

Shein could boost falling expected valuation with London listing
The City, despite its absence of tech names, understands fast fashion and would be likely to offer a warm welcome

TikTok users’ obsession with viral outfits helped Shein to a private valuation of $66bn in its last fundraising. But replicating that figure in the public markets is proving tougher than expected. The fast-fashion group is reportedly considering switching its listing from New York to London. Politically, that makes a lot of sense. 

The popularity of Shein’s ultra-cheap fashion on social media platforms has been behind its phenomenal growth. It filed confidential paperwork for its initial public offering with the US Securities and Exchange Commission in November.

Getting approval is looking complicated. Chinese companies wanting to list in the US are facing greater scrutiny amid rising geopolitical tensions between the two countries. Shein, founded in China, is no exception.

US regulators are stepping up oversight and subjecting Chinese companies to additional disclosure requirements. Some US lawmakers have gone as far as asking the SEC to block Shein’s listing, saying more information is needed about its operations in China. One lawmaker has called for a probe into Shein’s cotton supply from Xinjiang, where human rights groups claim ethnic minorities are being subjected to forced labour. Shein has denied the claims, saying it has no suppliers in the region.

A US listing carries risks for Shein too. As the dramatic delisting of Chinese ride-hailing giant DiDi Global from the New York Stock Exchange in 2022 shows, crackdowns from Beijing remain a risk. Chinese officials have long been wary of its companies listing in the US but their scepticism has risen since 2021.

Market conditions are also not easy. Shares of New York-listed Chinese retailer JD.com are down almost 50 per cent in the past year and trade at just 7.5 times forward earnings, a significant discount to global peers. That reflects growing concerns about growth and geopolitical risks.

A large, high-profile listing would, of course, be a welcome boost for London’s beaten-down market, still reeling from the success that UK chip designer Arm Holdings has had after choosing New York over London last year.

Despite London’s dearth of tech names, the City’s analysts understand fast fashion. And Shein would be likely to get an effusive welcome from policymakers and City reformers eager to reestablish the market’s place in the global pecking order.

Valued at an industry multiple, Shein would be worth about $70bn. But that is already subject to downward pressure. Some Shein investors have been reported to be trying to sell their shares in the private market at a 30 per cent discount in recent months.

The longer the delay, the more the investors possibly tempted to sell out at a lower price. Shein has an interest in making a quick decision on where it sees its future.