WSJ : See How Trump’s Truth Social Posts Move Stocks Milliseconds matter on Wall

See How Trump’s Truth Social Posts Move Stocks
Milliseconds matter on Wall Street, and Truth Social wants to charge traders to get faster access to the president’s posts


Truth Social wants to charge investors for instant access to President Trump’s often market-moving posts. In a world where high-frequency traders capitalize on fractions of seconds, such a service would give an edge to those willing to pay Trump’s media company.

Trump Media & Technology DJT 0.31%increase; up pointing triangle has been pitching trading firms on the service, which would send them posts from top accounts in real time. Trump has the largest following on Truth Social, with 12.9 million followers.

Information in the president’s feed is considered confidential until those posts become publicly available. “That is information he doesn’t have the right to use for trading himself, or for tipping other people off and charging them a fee,” said Richard Painter, who was a top White House ethics lawyer in the George W. Bush administration.

Spokespeople for Trump Media and the White House didn’t respond to questions about the new service. The president’s investment accounts are handled by third-party financial institutions, White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly has said, adding, “There are no conflicts of interest.”

Here are some examples of how Trump’s postings have moved individual stocks during his second term:

US Steel — 3:25 p.m.
What Trump Posted:
The Context:

Trump announced a “planned partnership” between US Steel and Japan’s Nippon Steel, reviving a stalled transaction he previously opposed. The president detailed that Nippon’s $14 billion investment would keep the steel business in America and add at least 70,000 jobs.


American Eagle — 10:25 a.m.
What Trump Posted:
The Context:

Trump swooped in to defend American Eagle’s controversial denim campaign featuring actress Sydney Sweeney last summer. As criticism erupted over the tagline, “Sydney Sweeney Has Great Jeans,” for drawing a pun in reference to the actress’s blond hair and blue eyes, the president boosted the brand.


Intel — 12:29 a.m.
What Trump Posted:
The Context: The president announced an agreement between Apple and Intel to boost the once golden chipmaker’s domestic production. The Apple-Intel partnership marked the third Trump-backed deal to support Intel as it fell behind in the AI chip race, including the government taking a 10% stake in Intel.


RTX — 4:02 p.m.
What Trump Posted:
The Context: Trump singled out Raytheon, a unit of RTX, while broadly mounting attacks on defense contractors with delayed and bloated contracts or high executive salaries. He wrote that the Pentagon could end business with Raytheon for being “the least responsive to the needs of the Department of War” in its level of investment and production speed.

WSJ : U.S. Emergency Oil Reserve Hits Lowest Levels Since 1983: Why It Matters W

U.S. Emergency Oil Reserve Hits Lowest Levels Since 1983: Why It Matters
WSJ’s David Uberti explains how the Strategic Petroleum Reserve works to help blunt the impact of oil shocks such as the Iran War

In underground salt caverns in Texas and Louisiana, the U.S. government stores hundreds of millions of barrels worth of oil in case of energy shocks. Those reserves are now at their lowest levels in decades.

In May, President Trump said the U.S. would release up to 172 million barrels worth of that oil to help tamp down prices during one of the world’s worst energy disruptions. The war with Iran hinges in large part on control of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil transited before the conflict.

Watch the video above to learn more about how we got here and the debate over what’s next for the U.S.’s strategic oil reserves.

WSJ : The CIA Operative Who Spied on the U.A.E.—and Played a Role in Its AI Win

The CIA Operative Who Spied on the U.A.E.—and Played a Role in Its AI Win
While conducting espionage against powerful sheikh’s tech company, Jonny Gannon helped Gulf country quash Washington suspicions about China ties

Jonny Gannon had one final mission.

The longtime CIA operative had exfiltrated the families of spies from the most repressive of Middle Eastern regimes and tattooed the word “ARGONAUT,” an homage to seafaring heroes from Greek mythology, across his right forearm. By 2023 he had a Washington desk job with a rank equivalent to an Army two-star general.

That’s when the director tapped him to return to the field.

His assignment: Find out whether the “spy sheikh” could be trusted with some of America’s most cutting-edge technology.

Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the national security adviser of the United Arab Emirates, was planning to build one of the world’s biggest artificial-intelligence hubs—and he had the financial firepower to do it. With a war chest estimated at $1.4 trillion, Tahnoon was seeking approval for the country’s AI champion, G42, to import state-of-the-art Nvidia chips.

But high-level officials in Washington worried Beijing was making intelligence inroads into the U.A.E. The U.S. had learned from intercepted communications that China was aiming to use its relationship with G42 to steal American technology and AI algorithms, according to people familiar with the matter. G42’s chief executive, Peng Xiao, had renounced his American citizenship, a prerequisite for acceptance into the inner circle of the Emirati government.

Gannon arrived in the U.A.E. capital Abu Dhabi on a commercial flight, sliding into a fake U.S. Embassy job that obscured his true position, CIA station chief.

Less than a year later, Gannon returned to Washington, this time on the Emirati royal family’s private Boeing 787. He was accompanying Sheikh Tahnoon, the brother of the U.A.E.’s ruler.

In classic spycraft, CIA officers steal information in the shadows from a foreign country to inform Washington policymakers. At the dawn of the AI era, Gannon was instead tasked by the highest levels of the Central Intelligence Agency with courting a foreign commercial player poised to be at the center of a new global scramble for power. He ended up both spying on G42 and also helping the U.A.E. clean up the troubling issues he discovered, according to accounts of his activities provided to The Wall Street Journal.

By the time of the June 2024 flight, Gannon had relayed advice to Tahnoon for more than six months on what it would take for the company to get in Washington’s good graces. Tahnoon was now on his way to make the case in person.

It worked—up to a point. Instead of cutting off the Emiratis, the Biden administration created a way for them to obtain the chips they needed, even if the path was strewn with bureaucratic hurdles.

In essence, the U.A.E.’s campaign—including wooing U.S. officials over tea, dates, and the occasional trip on a yacht or a private jet—reshaped a critical Washington debate from whether to allow the small desert country to become an AI power at all, to just how quickly to speed it along.

Donald Trump stepped on the gas. Days before his inauguration, Tahnoon and co-investors committed to a $500 million investment into Trump’s crypto company, World Liberty Financial.

The Trump administration soon decided to broaden the U.A.E.’s access to the most advanced AI chips, including allotting a portion specifically to G42. Last week, the administration went further, announcing it was temporarily lifting caps on G42’s access to U.S. chips, a major win for the country and for Tahnoon.

A person familiar with the matter said the World Liberty investment wasn’t discussed with Trump and that Tahnoon is a “significant investor” in crypto businesses. The White House has denied conflicts of interest, and World Liberty has said the investment had nothing to do with the administration.

Gannon’s role in the Biden-era transformation, revealed here for the first time, roiled the U.S. national security community, which wielded his insights as they battled over whether to help the U.A.E. become a new global AI contender.

His supporters, often officials who helped America wage the global war on terror and remembered the help Abu Dhabi had offered in fighting Islamic State, saw Gannon’s outreach as a necessary step to reward a critical security ally, and help keep American tech giants in one of the world’s largest AI projects. The U.A.E. was a geopolitical swing state worth bringing further into the American orbit, they argued.

On the other side were national security officials more focused on China, who feared America could be offshoring its most powerful new source of dominance to an adversary. The detractors were nervous that Gannon was obscuring clearcut evidence that both G42 and the U.A.E. shouldn’t be trusted. They believed he had “gone native,” and was helping set the stage for America to surrender its advantage in the defining geopolitical contest of the century.

In dozens of hours of interviews with the Journal, more than 30 current and former diplomatic, national security, White House and intelligence officials painted a picture of an emerging diplomatic gray zone that blended spycraft, diplomacy and commercial lobbying over the future of a new technology arms race. Some former administration officials said the debate over G42 fueled more rancor among Biden policymakers than almost any other issue.

In a statement, G42 said it had improved its compliance and security measures, and that it had gained access to U.S. technology through Washington’s formal regulatory process.

The Chinese embassy in Washington said the U.S. hyped and fabricated claims that China’s tech achievements are made through theft to undermine cooperation between Chinese companies and their international partners.

Surveillance state
G42’s chief executive complicated the picture. Born in China, Peng Xiao went to college in Hawaii in the 1990s. He became chief technology officer for MicroStrategy, a Northern Virginia business-intelligence company.

In 2015, Xiao came to the U.A.E., where he ran the AI division of cybersecurity firm DarkMatter. To the outside world, DarkMatter aspired to become a Middle East tech giant. In reality, it was created to help the Gulf state spy on geopolitical rivals, activists and journalists, with the help of former U.S. National Security Agency hackers, U.S. prosecutors later found. Xiao’s unit tried to blanket the country with surveillance, using AI to analyze the video, communications and location tracking it scooped up to predict civil unrest before it took root, according to former employees of the company.

As several of the U.S. contractors worked on Xiao’s project, they realized they were actually spying on Americans, former employees said. The tip-off: Some of the voices they intercepted had southern accents. They reported the effort to the FBI.

At the time, Xiao’s unit was also developing deep ties with China. Many of Xiao’s staff members were from the country and the executive opened affiliated offices there, the former employees said. Xiao publicly signed a deal with Huawei to develop AI tools that would help authorities monitor cities.

The company went defunct after a 2019 FBI investigation that led to some of the American employees admitting they had violated export laws by hacking into Apple’s iPhone cloud servers in the United States. Xiao and his staff spun off his unit into what became G42.

With billions of dollars in support from Tahnoon, G42 grew into a 22,000-person company aiming to become the largest AI firm in the world.

As the global Covid-19 pandemic raged, Xiao inked a deal with Chinese genomics company BGI to create one of the largest testing labs in the world. A Chinese official proclaimed a “historic and special era” of Beijing’s cooperation with the U.A.E.

Back in Washington, at a 2023 meeting of senior deputies across the executive branch, one five-minute agenda item set things in motion.

OpenAI had just released ChatGPT, triggering a new global race in artificial intelligence. American companies including Nvidia had a stranglehold on the most advanced chips that the U.A.E. needed to supercharge its AI capabilities.

Worried about G42’s growing China ties, officials discussed putting the company on a blacklist controlled by the Commerce Department that blocked access to American technology.

Commerce’s undersecretary for security, Alan Estevez, started the bureaucratic process for the blacklist, but got a call redirecting the path.

His boss, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, had discussed the plan with others, who had decided they needed to slow down given that G42 was a state-backed company and the administration needed Emirati assistance on other issues.

Estevez travelled to Abu Dhabi in the spring of 2023, meeting with Tahnoon’s chief of staff at his villa, and visiting G42’s headquarters. He saw Chinese gear on site, but came away impressed with the seemingly world-class level of the company’s operations. Estevez later raved about Xiao’s sophistication, telling others it was like talking to Dario Amodei, the co-founder of groundbreaking AI company Anthropic.

He visited Tahnoon’s seaside palace at dusk, strolling its verdant gardens alongside the sheikh, whose eye condition causes him to wear sunglasses all the time. Tahnoon, known as a committed futurist, was training an entourage of his own AI agents to manage his personal affairs.

“You have a choice,” Estevez told the sheikh, laying out the option of either working with the American tech giants, or their Chinese counterparts, but not co-mingling the two at the highest level of the technology. “I get it,” Tahnoon replied, signaling for tea and dates to break the Ramadan fast. Over a dinner that included multiple salad courses and lobster tail, the men discussed recent books they read. Among them: “Chip War,” the 2022 account of the geopolitical battle to control microchip technology.

In June, Tahnoon came to Washington, and Estevez met him again, this time at a McLean, Va. mansion Tahnoon owned, on a cliff overlooking the Potomac river. Estevez presented Tahnoon, who was in jeans and flip-flops, with a list of the U.S. government’s demands. It included an outside auditor that would vet G42’s compliance.

“I can do all of these things,” Tahnoon said.

The next day, Tahnoon visited the Commerce Department to meet with Raimondo and described his motivation. His Bedouin ancestors earned great wealth pearl diving—until foreign farmed pearls tanked the market and left the local economy in shambles. This time, the Emiratis wanted to build an economy that would outlast its oil wealth, and AI was its future bet, he said.

Estevez returned to Abu Dhabi to check on G42’s progress, and came away convinced the company was on the right track. Later, he went back to Tahnoon’s palace, where the pair watched the Tour de France bike race together, on a television as big as the wall.

Overcoming skepticism
Other national-security officials tried to pump the brakes.

One was an intelligence staffer on Biden’s national security council, Maher Bitar. Spurred by the federal investigations into Xiao’s earlier company, Bitar had helped lead a White House push against spyware makers and the use of American hackers-for-hire. A Palestinian-American with a quiet intensity that some colleagues viewed as didactic, Bitar argued that any new U.A.E. deals could end up backfiring in the ways offshoring manufacturing had initially been viewed as a boon to the American economy only to have devastating results.

On the other side of the argument were people like Brett McGurk, a White House Middle East adviser who had for years quietly worked with Emirati security services to fight terrorism and rein in Iran. Seen by colleagues as a soft-spoken yet brutally pragmatic operator, McGurk argued that whatever quibbles Washington might have with the U.A.E., cutting its access to American technology would only shove the Gulf State into China’s arms.

To get to the ground truth behind these arguments, the CIA turned to Gannon.

Within the agency, the U.A.E. station had come to be seen as a sleepy posting. In recent years, intelligence reports from the tiny country had petered out. Now with the G42 issue looming, the agency’s director, William Burns, needed a top field officer who could manage the conflicting goals of running aggressive spying operations and repairing relationships with the leaders of an important ally. Senior officials saw Gannon as uniquely suited for the role: a natural empath with an unusual ability to connect with people, and who had experience running hard-edged operations against America’s most critical targets.

Burns helped burnish Gannon’s credentials, personally telling the prince that the operative was the American in the room as Israel negotiated with Hamas to release its hostages in the aftermath of the Oct. 7 attack. Gannon did the rest, bonding with Tahnoon over their shared love of the grappling martial art Brazilian Jiu-jitsu. (Tahnoon was a blackbelt while Gannon ranked just one level above beginner.)

Intelligence reports of G42’s China connections kept flowing to Gannon, according to people familiar with the matter. Several company staffers, the CIA learned, were in touch with Chinese-state owned companies.

Gannon met with Xiao and delivered a message. Washington was very concerned about G42 but the station chief could be an open-minded conduit. The two grew close, sharing a taste for expensive liquor and Greek philosophy, as Gannon helped the CEO understand U.S. concerns. Xiao told him Washington could have access to G42’s data centers and staff, and could ask any questions it wanted to verify that the company was cutting its China ties, people familiar with the matter said.

With his bosses’ backing, Gannon took it one step further, the people said: When spying operations revealed evidence that appeared to contradict Xiao’s commitment, the CIA officer gave quiet hints about the issues to Xiao or U.A.E. officials such as Tahnoon.

The CIA would soon find the issues had disappeared. The company put together a slide deck that said it had removed $150 million worth of Huawei equipment from its systems.

Gannon flew back to Washington to brief scores of senior officials including Raimondo and McGurk on his findings—an unusual role for a station chief.

Some U.S. officials remained unconvinced. Over the years, they had gotten fed up with the U.A.E. for what they viewed as duplicitous behavior. It felt like gaslighting, for example, when the Emiratis denied to Washington that Beijing appeared to be building a secret military facility near Abu Dhabi, despite information the site included a basketball court with flags of the Chinese military and the Communist Party printed on the floor.

Now they worried that Tahnoon was again playing a fast one. They pressed Gannon about continuing contact between G42 and Chinese state companies, drawing on skeptical CIA analysts who shared their view. The contacts didn’t show Xiao was betraying his commitments, Gannon replied, arguing the employees in question were lower-level staff, who may have operated without Xiao’s knowledge. He had seen no proof that Xiao was a Chinese agent, as some suspected.

Within the national security council, the camp that wanted the U.A.E. to eventually get access to U.S. chips generally didn’t trust the CIA analysts, according to people familiar with the matter. They would phone Gannon and ask for his personal take on the assessments. They would also direct him with specific requests for what to bring to Tahnoon.

The dispute came to a head when Tahnoon visited Washington in June 2024, with Gannon in tow. Americans from both camps, along with Gannon, gathered at Tahnoon’s McLean mansion, and took their seats in his living room couches. Xiao gave a presentation on Chinese AI technology, being developed by DeepSeek, that he said would pose an imminent threat to American dominance in the field without G42’s help, according to people with direct knowledge.

Xiao’s reveal drove the Americans to openly lambast each other, as one official dismissed Xiao’s assessments, only to be contradicted by colleagues. The Emiratis looked on as the Washington crowd bickered.

Seven months later, when the tool was released, its advances sparked a freakout in Silicon Valley, causing tech stocks to plummet.

‘All the chips they wanted’
A week before Biden left office, his team put in place the framework for the Emiratis to access chips. U.A.E. officials criticized it as overly restrictive, but it opened the door for what was to come.

For champions in the Biden administration of G42 getting access to U.S. chips, the push helped the U.A.E. to side with Washington by ridding itself of Chinese tech. One senior official who helped craft the rule said: “I would have given them all the chips they wanted.”

In May 2025, two years after G42 was nearly put on the U.S. blacklist, the world’s tech luminaries including OpenAI’s Sam Altman and Nvidia’s Jensen Huang gathered in Abu Dhabi to sign on to help G42 build one of the the world’s largest AI hubs, dubbed Stargate UAE.

“We’re transforming a bold vision into reality,” Altman said.

The fruits of Tahnoon’s push are visible in the form of a massive construction site on a sandy patch of land miles from central Abu Dhabi, where thousands of laborers are working day and night. They are building the nerve center of Abu Dhabi’s AI efforts, set to be packed with the latest U.S. chips.

Gannon, who left the CIA last year, has maintained his relationships in the U.A.E, travelling there frequently to make introductions between American executives and Emirati security officials. He has helped national security contractors win consulting contracts with Emirati security services and court another prospective client: G42.

McGurk, too, has turned into something of a rainmaker for business deals in the U.A.E. He’s an adviser to Cisco, whose chief executive publicly thanked McGurk for his help in landing a deal on G42’s massive Stargate project. At a conference hosted by the tech company in February, McGurk said the debate around Emirati access to U.S. tech was an intense one during the Biden years.

“What worries me in Washington sometimes is that there is a zero-sum dimension to this conversation in some quarters,” he said.

FT : Singapore weighs hedge fund tax cuts to rival Hong Kong City-state frets o

Singapore weighs hedge fund tax cuts to rival Hong Kong
City-state frets over portfolio managers relocating to Chinese territory

Singapore’s markets regulator has held discussions with investment companies about cutting taxes for fund managers, setting up a battle with regional rival Hong Kong to attract talent.

Investment professionals in Singapore are worried that Hong Kong’s plan for sweeping tax changes could lead high-paid portfolio managers to relocate to the Chinese territory.

That has led to talks in recent months between the Monetary Authority of Singapore and investment industry professionals about what can be done to maintain Singapore’s competitive edge, according to four people familiar with the discussions.

While the conversations have covered a broad set of measures, including lowering the cost of business for investment groups, fund executives have told the regulator that unless Singapore’s already competitive tax rates are cut even lower, portfolio managers are likely to push for relocations to Hong Kong.

“A number of Singapore firms are saying that they need to set up Hong Kong offices or create arrangements where certain members can work in Hong Kong,” said a person involved in the talks. “MAS is hearing that and the discussions have intensified.”

A shift from Singapore to Hong Kong would mark a reversal of a years-long trend following the Covid-19 pandemic. Tens of thousands of white-collar expats bolted from Hong Kong to the city-state over political unrest and a perceived heavy-handed response to the pandemic.

As part of its efforts to convince finance professionals to return, Hong Kong is close to implementing a sweeping set of changes to its tax rules on carried interest and performance fees.

Under the measures, profits from a wide range of investments would be eligible for tax treatment as carried interest at a zero per cent rate.

The change would mean individual managers of hedge funds, private equity, venture capital, private credit and even family offices could structure themselves to reduce their already low Hong Kong tax bills. 

Since the FT reported on Hong Kong’s plans in March, MAS’s Financial Markets Development Department — which works to ensure the city-state is a competitive financial centre — has held discussions with investment groups focused on maintaining Singapore’s edge, the people said.

A move to copy Hong Kong’s carried interest move could face resistance among other government departments and prove politically unpopular during a period when the cost of living is rising, according to two people familiar with the talks. MAS may instead try to reduce costs on investment groups to allow them to pass on the savings to portfolio managers in place of tax cuts.

“Rather than putting money in the hands of individuals, they might find ways to make it more economical for firms to do business so they can pay their people better,” said a person involved in the discussions.

One measure under discussion is to reduce the tax rate of a special incentive scheme, where investment groups pay 10 per cent compared with Singapore’s standard corporate rate of 17 per cent.

“MAS is reviewing measures to sharpen the competitiveness of Singapore as a trusted and dynamic financial centre to financial institutions and talent,” the regulator told the FT.

“It’s going to get harder for Singapore” because of Hong Kong’s tax changes, said Darren Bowdern, head of Asia-Pacific asset management tax at KPMG. “But the advantage they have is that a lot of funds had already moved their investment structures there, and they aren’t just going to get up and move back.”

FT : Luxury groups face inventory squeeze under EU destruction ban Ban particul

Luxury groups face inventory squeeze under EU destruction ban
Ban particularly sensitive for industry that keeps products desirable by maintaining their scarcity

Large fashion groups including LVMH, Prada, Chanel and Inditex will be banned from destroying unsold clothes and footwear in the EU from this week, forcing the industry to overhaul the way it handles excess stock and customer returns.

The blanket ban is particularly sensitive for luxury fashion groups because it removes one of the industry’s least visible tools for keeping their products desirable by maintaining their scarcity value.

The new rule will force brands to choose between carrying higher inventory costs, expanding tightly controlled discount channels or producing fewer goods in the first place.

A court case this week revealed that Chanel routinely destroyed thousands of unsold products in Hong Kong as part of its inventory-management strategy.

Chanel told the FT the numbers cited in court did not reflect its current global practices, adding that products that could not be sold were now handled through L’Atelier des Matières, a recycling business it founded in 2019 to recover materials and return them to circular supply chains.

Between 4 per cent and 9 per cent of textile products offered for sale in Europe — equivalent to an estimated 264,000 to 594,000 tonnes a year — are destroyed before use, according to the European Environment Agency.

Official company data is not available and there is no public breakdown showing how much of that waste comes from luxury groups compared with fast-fashion brands.

The ban was approved in 2024 as part of efforts to curb overproduction, reduce waste and keep valuable materials in circulation for longer.

From July 19, large companies will be prohibited from incinerating or sending to landfill unsold clothes, accessories and footwear, including products returned by customers. 

The rules encourage donation, repair and reuse as more environmentally sustainable alternatives, with destruction to be permitted only under certain circumstances such as where goods pose health or safety risks, are counterfeit or irreparably damaged.

While donation and reuse could create new resale and upcycling channels for mass-market fashion, experts say the rules will pose greater challenges for luxury groups, which rely on tightly controlled distribution and scarcity to protect brand value.

Putting more unsold products into outlets, donation networks or secondary markets risks increasing discounting or feeding grey-market sales while repair, storage and material recovery could add to costs, they say.

As much as 40 per cent of luxury goods were sold at a discount in 2025, according to figures released by Bain and Italian industry association Altagamma as weaker demand and excess inventory increased brands’ reliance on outlets and markdowns. 

There are also questions over whether brands could circumvent the ban should unsold goods they sell to overseas distributors end up being destroyed outside the EU, insiders say.

“The new rules will lead companies to pay even closer attention to planning and inventory management,” said Luca Solca at Bernstein.

“That said, no one can work miracles: apparel brands in particular will inevitably be left with some end-of-season stock. This is unavoidable . . . so I also expect companies to make a greater effort to manage off-price sales in a way that preserves quality.”

He argued this would create an opportunity for companies such as UK-based luxury outlet operator Value Retail, creator of The Bicester Collection of shopping villages in Europe, China and New York.

The rules could also accelerate the adoption of artificial intelligence to monitor inventories in real time, forecast demand and better co-ordinate stock across stores and warehouses, according to industry executives and analysts.

Giulia Iuticone, a Milan-based partner at executive search firm Heidrick & Struggles, said the rules would “redefine how companies make decisions . . . if unsold stock can no longer serve as a safety valve, the quality of planning becomes a competitive advantage.”

FT : Defence giants to maintain grip on weapons market despite drone boom Repor

Defence giants to maintain grip on weapons market despite drone boom
Report finds industry’s ‘primes’ will still account for 80% of global sales well into the next decade

Defence giants will continue to dominate industry revenues into the next decade, according to a new report that plays down the threat from technology start-ups.

A study by consultancy BCG and Vertical Research Partners found that despite faster growth in cheaper mass-produced systems such as drones, complex weapons built by established contractors will still account for more than 80 per cent of the market in 2033. 

Diana Dimitrova, leader of BCG’s UK aerospace and defence practice, said that while “both defence tech companies and established contractors will grow . . . the majority of spending will remain with traditional players delivering major platforms and complex systems”.

Researchers chose a select set of programmes for complex capabilities and analysed how many could be replaced by or substituted for “affordable mass” alternatives by 2033.

Expensive systems comprised about $65bn of spending in the US, the EU and the UK last year, compared with about $5bn for affordable mass systems and just $55mn for single-use systems, according to the report.

While the market for larger systems is forecast to grow to an annual spend of $79bn by 2033, that for smaller defence systems will still only reach $17.5bn as the newer categories are growing from smaller bases.

In Europe, where governments have embarked on a rearmament drive in the face of Russian aggression, BCG separately forecasts that the market for defence equipment will more than double from about €150bn in 2024 to €380bn by 2035. Defence tech players are expected to secure €50bn-€80bn of this. The forecast assumes Europe achieves its target of spending 3.5 per cent of GDP on defence.

The findings come ahead of next week’s Farnborough Airshow, where defence start-ups will compete with established “primes” to show off their latest offerings.

Security risks have pushed defence to the top of the agenda at the biennial show. Organisers said defence companies, including defence tech and AI-focused players, would represent about half of the 1,600 exhibitors this year.  

Some industry leaders have warned that the advance of more nimble tech-focused companies focused on autonomous systems will disrupt the established hierarchy of the world’s defence industry, where primes have long dominated.

In Europe, investors have poured billions of dollars into newcomers such as Helsing and Quantum Systems, boosting valuations and stoking concerns of a defence bubble. 

Military budgets, however, are still skewed towards large platforms such as jets and tanks. Byron Callan, analyst at Capital Alpha Partners, said that although new systems such as drones were a “new and significant factor shaping defence . . . we don’t see them fully displacing manned platforms, particularly in ground warfare”.

The BCG analysis found that profits from more complex systems were more sustainable given the need for maintenance and spare parts over their operational lifetime. Complex weapons typically derive about half of their lifetime profit from maintenance, spare parts and upgrades over their operational lifetime. 

Established contractors are also more protected from a drop in spending during peacetime given long-term relationships with governments, according to the findings.

However, Dimitrova warned that prime contractors still needed to adapt and consider “where to compete and where to place their capital”. 

“Do they continue to invest in a stable and profitable business of developing exquisite programmes, or do they think about getting greater exposure to higher-growth segments — can they simply buy the most successful start-ups?”

FT : Xpeng says China close to building ‘killer’ rival to Tesla Model Y

Xpeng says China close to building ‘killer’ rival to Tesla Model Y
Elon Musk’s SUV remains top-selling electric vehicle in many parts of the world as well as second most popular in China

Xpeng has said China will soon produce a “killer” electric vehicle that will beat Tesla’s best-selling Model Y as the Volkswagen-backed carmaker seeks to take on Elon Musk in Europe.

Tesla has come under strong pressure from BYD and other Chinese EV makers but six years after its launch its Model Y sport utility vehicle remains the top-selling EV in many parts of the world as well as the second most popular in China. 

“I think we’re not far from beating Model Y,” Xpeng co-founder He Xiaopeng said at a vehicle launch event in Munich, signalling a rival model could come from Chinese carmakers. “I really believe in that.”

Xpeng is one of the more technology-focused new EV start-ups in China, with bold ambitions to compete against the likes of BMW and Mercedes-Benz in Europe’s premium car segment with its advanced software and autonomous technology.

Despite the proliferation of EVs in China, no single electric model has disrupted the global car market in the same way that Musk has done with the Model Y.

Xpeng on Thursday unveiled its most affordable electric SUV, the L03, which has a starting price of €35,600 and is the first model to launch simultaneously in China and Europe. It is a direct competitor to Tesla’s Model Y, which starts from €39,990.

“L03 has the potential to be a blockbuster model in terms of being a volume driver and certainly one of the Model Y killers, but not the killer,” said Lei Xing, founder of Chinese consultancy AutoXing.

In addition to its EVs and range-extended models such as the L03, Xpeng is seeking to set itself apart from other Chinese rivals and EV start-ups with flying cars and “the most humanlike” humanoid robots, which it plans to bring to Europe in the future.

Non-European carmakers including Toyota and Hyundai have historically struggled to crack the region’s premium segment dominated by German brands. But Håkan Samuelsson, chief executive of Geely-owned Volvo Cars, warned that it would be dangerous to assume that the premium segment was “safe” from Chinese competitors.

“They will probably have a lot of technical features which some premium customers will be impressed by,” Samuelsson told the FT. “We have put them in the same category as BMW, Mercedes and Audi. For us, Xpeng is probably in that group as well.”

Xpeng is in talks with VW and other carmakers to secure its second manufacturing facility in Europe. “Mainly I think, it’s going to be . . . some part of Germany,” He said.

The group plans to release its second-generation Vision-Language-Action (VLA) software in Europe from 2027 pending regulatory approval, which would directly compete with Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) system.

Its self-designed Turing artificial intelligence chips are also used in VW’s new models in China. He added that the company would also aim to license its smart driving software to other carmakers.

Tesla is seeking to expand regulatory approval of its partially autonomous FSD software in Europe after winning its first clearance in the Netherlands in April but the regulatory process has been slower in Europe compared with the US. 

Analysts such as Xing said there was still a technology gap between Tesla’s FSD and Xpeng’s VLA but the Chinese group’s AI head Xianming Liu countered that it was “very hard to say who is better or who is worse”.

“Autonomous driving is very easy to love,” He said. “When [my kids] grow up, I don’t think they will need a driver’s licence any more.” 

>>> Oracle : Oracle’s Project Jupiter behind-the-meter datacenter project in New

Oracle’s Project Jupiter behind-the-meter datacenter project in New Mexico that plans to use Bloom Energy is at risk of a 1-2 year delay due to permitting and pipeline building blockers

- Oracle's proposed 2.45 GW Project Jupiter site in New Mexico can't run at any meaningful capacity until a 17 mile pipeline (the Green Chile Pipeline) connecting the El Paso Natural Gas (EPNG) system to a delivery meter station is constructed. Oracle switched from turbines to Bloom Energy fuel cells earlier this year — but fuel cells run on pipeline gas too. - Source TradeTheNews.com

(ZeroHedge) Iran Formally Declares MoU Deal Is Dead - Expands Target List To Sau

Iran Formally Declares MoU Deal Is Dead - Expands Target List To Saudi Base, Kuwait Water Plant

  • Iran formally suspends MoU with the US, declaring agreement is over & commitments will no longer be fulfilled.
  • Fighting escalates into seventh strait day of heavy bombings.
  • Iran reportedly struck a US base in Saudi Arabia for the first time in four months.
  • US strikes disrupt southern Iran's telecom network, knocking out 116 communication towers amid new infrastructure war.
  • Iran pounds Kuwait's energy infrastructure, damaging power & desalination facilities.

Iran Formally Suspends MoU
It is now "official": the Iranians have declared that the signed Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the United States is dead. Tasnim is reporting Saturday that Iran will no longer fulfill its MoU obligations amid alleged repeat US violations. The past weeks have seen each side hurl warnings and threats to pull out, while attaching conditions that must be fulfilled.

But after what is now a full week of renewed fighting, it has been effectively torn up, with negotiations no longer happening. Al Jazeera is citing a top Iran official's precise statement on suspending the MoU in the following:
Previously, we have seen again and again Iranian officials accusing the US of violating the MoU and also putting some conditions if the aggression continues.
What we’re seeing is Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, who is also head of the Iranian technical negotiating team, saying that in practice, the US has violated all the commitments and suspended the MoU entirely.
“We also likewise have suspended all of our commitments as a result; we are no longer implementing those commitments,” he added.
So, officially, this is the first time the Iranians are saying the MoU is over and they’re not going to implement any clause.
Given President Trump has apparently just ordered dozens more aerial refueling planes to the region, the conflict looks to continue going up the escalation ladder for at least the next week or longer. Each side will seek to impose more economic and military pain, while waiting for the other to blink. Battle of narratives over damage and retaliation:


Saudi Base Attacked for First Time in 4 Months
Saudi Arabia has come under attack by Iranian missiles in the last 24 hours, the kingdom is confirming on Saturday, in a major escalation given that this is a first since near the start of the war several months ago. According to Reuters:
The Saudi civil defense early on Saturday issued two early warnings for Al-Kharj city and Yanbu to be alert to “potential danger,” but it later says the danger has passed in both areas, without providing details on the danger that triggered the warnings.
A US official tells the Axios news site that Iran targeted an American military base in Saudi Arabia with a ballistic missile, the first time that the Islamic Republic has directly attacked the kingdom in four months.
Locations in Jordan and even Syria have also been hit in recent salvos, but the US military has downplayed these attacks - and there's a battle of narratives over just how destructive these have been amid the fog of war.
Kuwait also reeling from stepped-up attacks...


116 Telecoms Towers In Southern Iran Taken Out
As we featured earlier, Iranian communications and even the supply of drinking water have been severely impacted in some places of southern Iran, amid continuing US airstrikes on civic and national infrastructure, amid the seventh consecutive day of war. "Hormozgan’s chief of communications and information technology says the US's overnight attacks disrupted telecommunications in Bandar Abbas and Hajiabad, in the northern part of the province," Al Jazeera reports
Authorities there have tallied at least 116 telecommunication towers which were taken out of service due to the US onslaught. This has resulted in outages and disruptions of fixed-line, mobile, and internet services, per Tasnim news agency.
This suggests the US is returning to a strategy which seeks to create destabilization within, targeting the ability of the public to communicate and access information, returning the situation to the early weeks of the war, which saw Tehran authorities themselves curb internet and some telecoms access for the citizenry.
Kuwait Power & Desalination Plant Hit
Kuwait was bombarded overnight in one of the fiercest Iranian retaliatory strikes since the US-Iran conflict erupted in late February, with missiles and one-way drones targeting power infrastructure and other critical energy assets.
Local outlet Kuwait News Agency reports an unspecified site of the Kuwait Petroleum Corporation suffered "significant material losses" as the week-long flare-up in Gulf tensions has derailed any near-term normalization of tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
There was a report that the Al-Subiya power station was struck. This marks the second attack on Kuwaiti power infrastructure in just days, after a transformer at the Zour South electricity and desalination complex was hit on Friday.
Authorities disconnected several power-generating units as a precaution and urged residents to conserve electricity. A Kuwaiti army base was also struck during the latest escalation, injuring several personnel.

Infrastructure War in Full Swing
On March 2, we warned:
Bahrain and Jordan intercepted Iranian missiles and drones. The overnight barrage followed a seventh consecutive night of US strikes targeting Iranian surveillance sites, weapons storage, logistics infrastructure and maritime offensive capabilities as the Department of War seeks to erode Tehran's leverage on the Hormuz waterway.
As of late Friday, the previous US-Iran wrap stated:
  • Surge in more large US refueling planes headed to Mideast, signaling likely expansion of strikes on Iran.
  • US attacks hit Iranian energy and transport infrastructure.
  • Iran threatens stronger retaliation and claims strike on US base in Qatar - and deepens attacks to include US outposts in Jordan, Syria.
  • Iran urges power conservation; Hormuz shipping traffic declines further.
  • Oil prices rise to session highs on fears of broader regional conflict.
Brent chart
The latest Hormuz tanker transit data via Bloomberg shows that activity at the maritime chokepoint has all but ceased. This data is based on ships activating their transponders and doesn't account for ships that 'go dark'...

Haaretz : The Israeli Spyware Firms Active in Morocco, the French Targets – and

The Israeli Spyware Firms Active in Morocco, the French Targets – and NSO Founder's 'Diplomatic' Passport

An international investigation in partnership with Haaretz exposes the role of Morocco's intelligence apparatus in the affair, the penetration of devices of senior French and Spanish officials, and the hackings that marred a Panamanian presidential election
In late 2013, a young Israeli using the name Shalev Holy landed in Panama. According to the paperwork, he was there for tourism, and the address recorded was that of the Israeli Embassy in Panama City. The passport was a diplomatic passport.

But the young man's real last name was Hulio, not Holy. According to an investigation by a consortium of journalists, a year before his visit, NSO Group, the spyware company Hulio co-founded, sold Panama a revolutionary product called Pegasus, which was little known at the time.
Hulio denies that he had a diplomatic passport and calls the claim that he used the name Holy "false." Eight years after the Panama visit, the international Pegasus Project investigation revealed that the NSO spyware had been sold to regimes around the world and was used by many of them to surveil journalists, politicians and human rights activists. Among the victims were ministers in France and Spain.

Pegasus grants customers full access to the infected phone; remotely, they can read all the files and messages in encrypted apps. Covertly, they can also activate the camera and microphone.

Now, a follow-up investigation in the wake of yearslong work by the Moroccan journalist Hicham Mansouri reveals further details on the use of the spyware around the world.

Panama, it turns out, was one of the first countries to buy Pegasus; the follow-up investigation reveals screenshots from a live spyware interface and Panama's user license. It confirms that Morocco hacked into the phones of senior French and Spanish officials, and reveals a clutch of Israeli spy companies that armed the king's intelligence service, years before Israel and Morocco established diplomatic relations under the Abraham Accords.


The investigation revealed what the activation interface of Pegasus spyware looks like.

The investigation was coordinated by the Paris-based organization Forbidden Stories, which continues the work of threatened journalists, and 39 journalists from 14 media outlets including Israel's Haaretz and Shomrim.

The investigation, also backed by technical support from Amnesty International's Security Lab, is based on the testimony of a former officer in Morocco's domestic security service, the DGST, as well as leaked documents, digital forensics, the French government's investigation file, and interviews with sources including former NSO employees and Western officials.

Hulio, who says he left NSO years ago, rejected the investigation's central claims and strongly denied the passport account that anchors this article. "Your allegations concerning a diplomatic passport and my purported role as a representative of the State of Israel are entirely false and categorically denied." That example alone, he wrote, "illustrates how an elaborate narrative can be built on a false premise."

The king's spy apparatus
The investigation reveals that Morocco was an NSO client at least since 2017, when it received the code name "Morgan" at the company. But the kingdom wasn't content with Pegasus spyware and bought additional Israeli surveillance systems. The DGST set up an extensive spy apparatus that brought in Israeli technicians who installed the systems. Also on board was Maroc Telecom; its network was used to infect the targets' phones with spyware.

Among the surveillance targets were the journalist and corruption investigator Omar Radi and the historian and activist Maati Monjib, on whose devices traces of Pegasus were found.

To accompany Pegasus, starting in 2017 Morocco operated a system from the Israeli company Circles that enables the location of a device anywhere in the world by exploiting weaknesses in the international communications system. Morocco's use of the software was first exposed by the Toronto-based Citizen Lab institute, and the new investigation shows that the DGST has used it.


NSO Group co-founder Shalev Hulio, who is no longer with the company, which was bought by an American ownership group. Credit: Omer Hacohen

Circles is considered the first Israeli cyber intelligence company. It was founded by Tal Dilian, a former commander of Military Intelligence's tech unit; in 2014 it was acquired and merged with NSO's parent company. Circles' technology and Pegasus were probably sold to Morocco in a single package: one tool to locate the phone and one to break into it.

A year before it procured Pegasus, Morocco was already in talks to buy surveillance systems from the Israeli company Verint. In internal company documents from 2016 obtained by Haaretz, Morocco appears under the code name "Magazine." The documents record negotiations over deals worth $18 million for the purchase of the cellphone location system Skylock and of a location-and-intelligence platform. The documents also reveal contacts for the sale of spyware that Verint had developed for cellphones, called EPI.

Cognyte, the cyber division spun off by Verint in 2021, was banned from Meta's Facebook and Instagram that year because of surveillance that Cognyte had done for Morocco. In 2022, Cognyte was dropped from the portfolio of Norway's sovereign wealth fund over an "unacceptable risk" of contributing to rights violations.

The new investigation has also found that Morocco used phone-cracking tools from the Israeli company Cellebrite; such tools make it possible to physically break into phones in the client's possession and extract the information stored there. In 2019, the organization Privacy International reported that Cellebrite had offered Morocco a service for scanning the phones of asylum seekers at the border. A DGST officer told the authors of the new investigation that Morocco also used Cellebrite to spy on human rights activists.

Morocco was also interested in a system called Nighthawk from the Israeli company Interionet, which met with DGST agents. Documents and interviews show that the company presented a system that enables the takeover of security cameras and so-called network edge devices, and allows the client to watch the broadcast live.


An end-user agreement for the use of Pegasus spyware, signed by the head of Panama's National Security Council.
It's unclear if Morocco actually bought the system. In 2022, Haaretz exposed the company Toka, which sells camera-hacking tools. It now turns out that similar technology was exported from Israel to nondemocratic states even earlier.
In 2023, the company QuaDream also sought to sell Morocco offensive spyware that, like Pegasus, makes it possible to covertly break into a phone without any action by the victim ("zero-click"). But this purchase, made after the Abraham Accords were signed in 2020, was blocked by Israel's Defense Ministry, in part because Morocco had used Pegasus against France and Spain. The refusal hastened QuaDream's collapse.

From Rabat to Paris – and back
In the new investigation, the materials obtained from France, Spain and Morocco show that Morocco used Pegasus to spy on its neighbors to the north. Government documents reveal how France and Spain investigated the break-in to the phones of senior ministers, including the clash with the Israeli government that followed.

In 2021, the Pegasus Project exposed a list of phone numbers that a Moroccan Pegasus user had selected as potential targets for hacking. The French investigation file that reached Haaretz shows that the country's national cyber authority found signs of attempts to break into the devices of ministers, legislators and social activists – some on the very same day these targets were selected. According to the documents, the French found a successful hack of a device belonging to the deputy climate minister, Emmanuelle Wargon, one of seven such cases.

The list of targets also included a phone number linked to President Emmanuel Macron and the number of France's then-defense minister, Florence Parly. While the documents showed no signs of hacking regarding the first case, they did regarding Parly. The cyber authority was unable to provide many confirmations of break-ins, and any confirmations did not mention Pegasus by name.


After publication of the initial allegations, Macron spoke with then-Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and demanded that his defense minister, Benny Gantz, come to Paris for a meeting with Parly. Gantz told her that Defense Ministry officials had visited NSO's offices and Israel was "examining the matter with the utmost seriousness." Parly said that Gantz was "in a very defensive posture." Ever since, officials from both Jerusalem and NSO have said they have found no proof that Morocco has used Israeli technology to spy on French officials.


Then-Defense Minister Benny Gantz visiting Morocco in November 2021, four months after the exposure of spyware attacks in France and Spain. Credit: Ariel Hermoni/Defense Ministry

According to reports in France, Macron also raised the matter with Morocco's King Mohammed VI. "I have proof; either you're lying or you don't know what's happening in your country," he reportedly told the king. A memo written by the French foreign-intelligence service, which has not previously been reported, confirms that Pegasus servers and domain names were used to designate phones "located in France."

According to the memo, it is "highly probable" that NSO – and perhaps the Israeli government – knows which phones were designated. The memo also reveals that Pegasus spyware was also sold to Indonesia and Malaysia, Muslim countries with no official diplomatic ties to Israel.
As has been revealed in The New Yorker, the Spanish intelligence agency, the CNI, used Pegasus to spy on officials and activists in the Catalonia region. But through Project Pegasus, the Spanish discovered that Morocco was using the same tools to spy on them. Prosecutors in Madrid determined that the phones of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and two of his ministers, including the defense minister, had been infected.

Classified CNI documents, which the ministers who suffered break-ins were shown, named Fouad Ali El Himma, an adviser close to the king of Morocco, as the person who ordered the surveillance. This happened as tensions over Spain's immigration crisis peaked.

In 2023, Spain shelved the investigation into its own targeting, declaring that Israel refused to cooperate and made it difficult for NSO to reveal details about its operations in courts abroad, as has happened in other proceedings against the company. The most famous example is the lawsuit brought by WhatsApp's owner, Meta, in which Israel seized documents from the company to prevent their submission in court.

NSO founders Hulio and Omri Lavie are no longer with the company, which was bought by an American ownership group. Early this year, a French investigating judge questioned Hulio and Lavie about the spyware's features and what they knew about Morocco's use of it. The two declined to answer questions about the product their former company had sold to Morocco many years earlier.

On the hacking of senior French officials, Hulio said that, as far as he knew, Israel had found no proof that senior French officials had been hacked, and that this finding had been conveyed to France. "Neither Macron nor any other political figure was a target of Pegasus." About Morocco, Hulio told the judge only: "I know that Morocco denied purchasing it."


Despite the affair, Spain and France smoothed things over with Morocco, and this week, French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu and more than 10 ministers visited the North African country. Lecornu himself has been a target. Spain has since decorated the head of the Moroccan secret service twice; once by the Spanish interior minister, himself a target of a break-in.

In his written statement, Hulio also mentioned the original 2021 Pegasus Project, arguing that many of its main assertions "have been conclusively shown to be factually inaccurate and simply untrue," and that new questions asked are based on assumptions that are "inaccurate, distorted or entirely false."

He rejected any suggestion that declining to answer amounted to agreement, writing that a decision not to respond to questions "built on false or misleading premises cannot reasonably be interpreted as confirmation of those premises." Questions about the company's activities, he added, should be directed to NSO itself.

The NSO Group, the Israeli Defense Ministry and the governments of Morocco, Panama, France and Spain did not respond to a detailed list of questions they received ahead of publication of the investigation.

$8 million from Panama
A decade before the Spain-France-Morocco affair, one of NSO's first deals took shape across the ocean. Government documents obtained by Luis Esquivel, one of the journalists in the consortium, reveal that Panama bought Pegasus spyware in 2012, with a license for 300 infections of Android and BlackBerry devices. The end-user agreement was signed by Gustavo Pérez, the chairman of Panama's National Security Council, while a letter signed by Hulio confirmed receipt of $8 million for the product.


A 2015 letter from NSO Group to the Panamanian government confirming a purchase order for Pegasus spyware.
Screenshots not previously published show the spyware's interface from the side of a Pegasus client. The screengrabs from Panama show a system identical to Saifan, an early version of Pegasus that the Israel Police operated and that was previously reported by Haaretz.
Panama's National Security Council, which bought Pegasus, operated under President Ricardo Martinelli, who served from 2009 to 2014. The screenshots show how the spyware's operators penetrated the two leading campaigns in the presidential election that year; only three parties competed. The screengrabs display, for example, email messages of the officials responsible for publishing the election results, and a voter registry.

One screenshot shows that the operators also penetrated the BlackBerry device of Vice President Juan Carlos Varela. In May 2014, Varela was elected president. A week later, according to Hulio's signed letter, NSO identified the last operation of the spyware.


In 2015, an indictment was filed against Martinelli for wiretapping journalists and political rivals. He was extradited from the United States, where he had fled, before a trial in which he was acquitted.

Under his presidency, Panama was one of nine countries that voted at the UN General Assembly in 2012 against recognizing a State of Palestine. This was, perhaps, the first sign of what would later become a habit – a quid pro quo for Benjamin Netanyahu's Israel from countries granted the chance to buy the best of Israel's digital weaponry.