>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Siemens Energy (ENR TH) +1.3%
  • Rheinmetall (RHM TH) +1%
  • Fresenius SE (FRE TH) -0.7%
MDAX:
  • Talanx (TLX TH) +2.1%
    • Talanx 3Q Ebit EU802M
  • Evotec SE (EVT TH) +1.3%
  • ProSieben (PSM TH) +0.9%
  • Fresenius Medical (FME TH) -1.4%
SDAX:
  • Energiekontor (EKT TH) +4.7%
    • Announcement for the third quarter of 2023
  • Ionos (IOS TH) +3.9%
    • Barclays upgrades stock to overweight: DJ
  • Adtran Holdings (QH9 TH) +3.3%
  • Bilfinger (GBF TH) +3%
    • Bilfinger 3Q Sales EU1.12B Vs. EU1.08B Y/y
  • Ceconomy (CEC TH) +1.5%
  • Metro (B4B TH) -1%
  • Borussia Dortmund (BVB TH) -2.8%

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 13rd of November 2023

>>> Up
* Aker Solutions Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 63 kroner
* Alfen Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 45 euros
* AlzChem Group Raised to Buy at Baader Helvea; PT 29 euros
* Brookfield Renewable Partners Raised to Outperform at RBC
* Evonik Raised to Buy at SocGen; PT 25 euros
* M&G Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 220 pence
* Monte Paschi Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 4.10 euros
* Oracle Raised to Buy at Edward Jones
* Pandora Raised to Outperform at CICC; PT 954 kroner
* TGS Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 200 kroner
* Trelleborg Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 350 kronor
* Wise Raised to Buy at Peel Hunt on Business Model Resilience

>>> Down
* Aperam Cut to Add at AlphaValue/Baader
* Borgestad Cut to Hold at Norne Securities; PT 0.38 kroner
* Diageo PT Cut to 2,600 pence from 3,000 pence at Morgan Stanley
* Dr Martens Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 140 pence
* GARO AB Cut to Hold at DNB Markets; PT 31 kronor
* Plug Power Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
* PGS Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 13 kroner
* Technip Energies Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 26.50 euros
* Unity Software Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe

>>> Initiation
* B&C Speakers Rated New Buy at GBC AG; PT 23 euros
* Bridgepoint Resumed Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 223 pence
* Cembre Rated New Buy at GBC AG; PT 42 euros
* COCA-COLA INITIATED HOLD AT JEFFERIES, PT $64
* Colgate-Palmolive Reinstated Buy at Jefferies; PT $87
* Enav Rated New Buy at GBC AG; PT 5.15 euros
* Energy Srl Rated New Buy at GBC AG; PT 2.75 euros
* Giglio Rated New Buy at GBC AG; PT 4 euros
* ID-Entity Rated New Buy at GBC AG; PT 7.10 euros
* Kempower Rated New Buy at SEB Equities; PT 38 euros
* MOLSON COORS RATED NEW HOLD AT JEFFERIES, PT $62
* MONSTER INITIATED BUY AT JEFFERIES, PT $65
* PEPSICO INITIATED BUY AT JEFFERIES, PT $203
* PROCTER & GAMBLE RATED NEW BUY AT JEFFERIES, PT $177
* Reply Rated New Buy at GBC AG; PT 122 euros
* Sanlorenzo/Ameglia Rated New Buy at GBC AG; PT 52.75 euros
* Solid World Group Rated New Buy at GBC AG; PT 6 euros
* Zignago Vetro Rated New Buy at GBC AG; PT 25 euros

>>> Call
* ABB Growth Potential Sees Citi Open Positive Catalyst Watch
* Goldman’s Kostin Says Earnings Forecasts Are Worrying Investors
* Morgan Stanley Sees Bullish Opportunities for US Assets in 2024

>>> What to look at today - 13rd of November 2023

Shares in Asia gave up early gains while falling US futures partly unwound a Friday rally, ahead of crucial inflation data and a meeting between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping later this week. Equity benchmarks in Japan, South Korea and China traded within narrow ranges. A region-wide stock gauge was flat after trading 0.5% higher earlier in the session. Futures for the Euro Stoxx 50 were little changed and those for the S&P 500 index fell 0.4%, partly retracing a 1.6% gain Friday. Markets are closed in Singapore and Malaysia for a holiday.  The yen fell to a fresh 2023 low against the dollar, raising concerns that authorities will intervene to support the currency. Oil extended three weeks of declines on concerns about demand. Treasuries were steady after a Friday sell-off weighed on the short end of the curve. The 10-year yield held just below 4.7%. Australian and New Zealand government bonds edged lower. All eyes are on the upcoming US consumer price data due Tuesday, which is expected to show inflation easing to a year-on-year rate of 3.3% in October, down from 3.7% in the prior month.  Meanwhile, more signs of thawing US-China ties are emerging ahead of Wednesday’s summit between Biden and Xi, with Beijing said to be weighing ending a freeze on Boeing Co.’s aircraft.  In Japan, producer prices declined in October from the prior month while India will release its latest inflation report Monday. Elsewhere, China’s consumption rebound slowed and private business confidence lost momentum in October, according to independent surveys and alternative data that suggested the economic recovery remains bumpy. ANZ Group Holdings Ltd. shares fell after the bank’s chief executive officer warned of a challenging economic environment ahead in its latest earnings results. Profits for the group were buoyed by higher interest rates. Other companies set to report include Apple supplier Hon Hai Precision Industry, also known as Foxconn, Chinese tech giants JD.com Inc and Tencent Holdings Ltd., Japanese financial heavyweights Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group and Mizuho Financial Group, Walmart Inc. and Siemens. JD.com and Alibaba Group Holding reported a pickup in sales for Singles’ Day, following steep discounts offered by the e-commerce groups. Gold was steady while Bitcoin hovered near $37,000 — around the highest price in 18 months.

Nikkei +0.05% Hang Seng +0.29% CSI -0.39% Shanghai +0.05% Shenzen +0.31%

Eur$ 1.0686 CNH 7.3096 CNY 7.2976 JPY 151.79 GBP 1.2235 CHF 0.9020 RUB 92.3349 TRY 28.5866 WTI$ 76.52 -0.84% Gold 1;940 BTC 36,940 -0.65% ETH 2,040 -1%

S&P -0.36% Nasdaq -0.38% EuroStoxx +0.31% FTSE +0.23% Dax +0.24% SMI +0.24%

Macro :
- Talanx, Porsche, ACS, Banca Generali: Earnings Day Ahead
- UK Plans to Introduce Carbon Border Tax in 2026: FT
- Google in Talks to Invest in AI Startup Character.AI: Reuters
- Global Funds Look Beyond Short-Sale Ban to Snap Up Korean Stocks
- Saudi Arabia Says It Plans $25 Billion in African Investments
- Goldman’s Kostin Says Earnings Forecasts Are Worrying Investors
- Morgan Stanley Sees Bullish Opportunities for US Assets in 2024
- Goldman’s Solomon Says Likelihood of US Recession Declines
- JPMorgan’s Matejka Prefers Defensives as Bond Yields Turn Lower

Keep an eye on :
- AIR FP : Riyadh Air Set For 100 Boeing Max Order in Dubai to Extend Fleet
- AIR FP : Boeing Closes in on Major Order With Emirates For 777X Widebody
- AF FP : KLM Reaches Labor Deal With Pilots, Cabin Crew
- ALFEN NA : Alfen 3Q Adj. Ebitda €17.3M; CFO to Step Down (Nov. 12)
- ALPHA GA : *GREECE TO SELL 9% ALPHA BANK STAKE TO UNICREDIT FOR €1.39/SHR
- AZN L N : AstraZeneca Eyes Market for Cheap Ozempic-Like Drug in Pill Form
- BA/ LN : BAE Says Performance is in Line With Guidance
- BARC LN : Barclays Says Outside Third Party Erred With ETN Tender Offer
- GBF GY : Bilfinger 3Q Sales EU1.12B Vs. EU1.08B Y/y
- BPE IM : BPER’s Top Shareholer Rules Out Bank’s Interest in Monte Paschi
- BMPS IM : ITA Airways in Talks on €300M Loan to Expand Fleet: Messaggero
- CXGD PL : Caixa Geral 9M Net Income EU987M Vs. EU692M Y/y
- CARLB DC : Carlsberg Group chief's anti-Russian accusations groundless - Russian Foreign Ministry
- CLNX SM : Cellnex Will Return Cash to Shareholders Amid Asset Sales
- GET FP : Sir Richard Branson plots Eurostar challenger
- ENO SM : STATKRAFT, THREE GORGES VIE FOR ELECNOR'S ENERFIN: EXPANSION
- FXPO LN : Top French Court Refuses to Extradite Ukrainian Tycoon Zhevago
- HEI GY : Combined Summit, Argos USA Becomes Too Big as Acquisition Target
- HILBB SS : Hilbert Group Offers SEK20 million Class B Shares Biome Technologies Says Performance is in Line With Expectations
- HUDL NO : Huddlestock Fintech Offers Shares at NOK1.20/Share
- HYQ GY : Hypoport 9M Ebit Loss EU2.9M
- JST GY : JOST Werke SE 3Q Adjusted Ebit Beats Estimates
- LHA GY : ITA Airways in Talks on €300M Loan to Expand Fleet: Messaggero
- MSFT US : OpenAI Chief Altman Seeks New Funds From Microsoft: FT
- AERO SW : Montana Aerospace Signs EU450m in New Syndicated Term Loans
- NWG LN : Sky News: Farage to seek millions in damages from NatWest and former CEO Rose
- NOVOB DC : Novo Trial Shows Wegovy’s Heart Benefit in Patients With Obesity
- NOVOB DC : Novo Nordisk's SELECT Data Supports Wegovy Label Claim, Safety
- ORP FP : Orpea Starts Capital Raise With Preferential Rights for ~€3.9B, Orpea to Propose New Board of Directors
- PNDORA DC : Danish jewellery chain Pandora confident of bucking luxury slowdown
- REN PL : REN 9M Net Income EU96.2M Vs. EU81.4M Y/y
- SHA GY : TE Connectivity Gets Clearance for Schaffner Offer, Holds 89%
- SHEL LN : Shell, BP Call On US-EU Task Force to Intervene in LNG Dispute
- SIE GY : Siemens Energy Can’t Shake Wind Woes
- GLE FP : SocGen Said to Weigh Sale of German Unit in Bid to Boost Returns
- SOLB BB : Solvay Targets Avg Mid-Single Digit Ebitda Growth to 2028
- SOLB BB : Solvay Syensqo Targets >€7B Cash Delivery Between 2024-2028
- VIR US : Vir Biotech Has Promising Signal in Hepatitis D, Leerink Says
- SDZ SW : Sandoz Boosts European Capacity to Help Secure Medicine Supplies
- TLX GY : Talanx 3Q Ebit EU802M
- TSLA US : Man vs. Musk: A Whistleblower Creates Headaches for Tesla
- TTE FP : TotalEnergies Is Said to Near Deal to Buy Texas Gas Power Plants
- UCG IM : *GREECE TO SELL 9% ALPHA BANK STAKE TO UNICREDIT FOR €1.39/SHR
- VLN FP : Valneva Says Chikungunya Vaccine Trial Met Primary Endpoint
- DG FP : Hungary Teams With Vinci on Plan to Purchase Budapest Airport
- VOD LN : Vodafone Weighs Options for Italian Unit, Il Sole Reports
- MF FP : Wendel seeks further private equity deals after IK partners investment

>>> This hedge fund manager is making a 100-year bet on luxury

This hedge fund manager is making a 100-year bet on luxury

European leisure and luxury – a designer handbag, a last-minute flight to Monte Carlo, a stay in a five-star hotel – is where many choose to spend their hard-earned cash. For Sharif el Khazen, it’s where he makes it.

Khazen manages London-based hedge fund Metronome Capital, which he launched in 2013 after leaving a partner position with renowned European manager Parvus Asset Management.

Ten years on, the firm’s long-short fund has developed a reputation for betting big on the luxury and leisure end of the consumer discretionary sector.

“A big area for us since inception has been luxury,” Khazen tells The Australian Financial Review as he prepares to present his latest stock pick at Sohn Hearts & Minds in Sydney next week.

“Luxury is pretty unique because you only have three or four high-quality brands that will be here in 100 years. You just need to buy them at the right price.”

But sometimes buying at the right price can mean wading in when the markets get jittery, a skill Khazen says he learnt to master whilst working at Parvus.

“Once I started at Parvus I was bitten by the passion to invest in stocks,” he says.

“When things do get volatile, you need to lean into them in order to generate the returns over the next decades.”

It was this kind of experience that proved vital in Metronome’s first few years, when Khazen and his team were able to capitalise on a downturn in the often maligned consumer discretionary space.

“When we launched there was an anti-corruption clamp down in China, terrorist attacks in Europe and FX was very volatile, which meant that the industry didn’t grow for a couple of quarters,” he said.

But during that time, Metronome began adding to its luxury holdings, picking up Italian luxury fashion house Moncler, Cartier owner Richemont as well as Kering, which owns brands like Gucci, Balenciaga and Yves Saint Laurent.

Alongside Metronome’s existing large stake in French luxury conglomerate LVMH, Khazen says the fund’s luxury holdings have helped fuel returns in the firm’s first decade in operation.

Canary in the coal mine
Metronome’s success in luxury is also at odds with the consumer discretionary sector’s reputation of being the canary in the coal mine during economic downturns. But as Khazen points out, not all segments of the sector are alike.

“In times of economic pressure or when inflation has been very high, those companies that cater to the top end of the pyramid are much more resilient,” he says.

“It’s a resilient industry, and we’ve just come out of three years of incredible growth for some of these players.”

Looking ahead, Khazen believes several tailwinds continue to bolster the case for luxury stocks, including a large still untapped market in the world’s second-largest economy.

“We know that there’s a huge reservoir of growth coming from Asia and China in particular,” Khazen says.
“China has 140 million people in the upper middle [class] and that is expected to become 200 million within a couple of years. So you have 60 million more people that can start affording luxury items.”

China’s expanding interest in the market adds to the region’s already bustling appetite for luxury goods. As Khazen points out, on a per capita basis South Korea ranks as the largest luxury market in the world.

“If you survey people and ask people how important is it for you to be seen to be rich, in South Korea, it’s 60 per cent and in China, it’s 50 per cent. In Europe and the US, it’s roughly 25 per cent,” he adds.

“The spend on luxury items in South Korea is over six times that of China, when the GDP per capita is only two and a half times that of China. So you have a massive structural tailwind, coming just from that.”

And while many have been looking in recent months to insurers, industrials or even miners for the pricing power needed to withstand a high inflationary environment, luxury stocks may be overlooked, according to Khazen.

“Luxury has almost infinite pricing power,” he says.

“Look at the Chanel flap bag: The price has doubled in the last three years to over €10,000 ($16,700) and it didn’t really impact the business.”

Leisure is another area that Khazen says is often avoided when it is actually well-placed to maximise returns as the world’s GDP and living standards continue to lift in the decades to come.

“Once you’ve bought your furniture, your car, or your house, and you have more disposable income, you’re going to spend more on experiences and travel,” he says.

“If you used to fly economy and get a budget hotel, you will fly business and get a villa somewhere else. You don’t have that same lever to pull when buying furniture, or cars.”

Metronome has been capitalising on this trend by buying stakes in companies such as online travel website booking.com.

Cyclical panic
And while inflation-driven cost of living pressures have turned investors bearish on the outlook for discretionary stocks, Khazen says it’s that kind of cyclical panic that his fund uses to its advantage.

“They will get sold by a portion of the market, but we feel that even if you are wrong for a quarter or two, and earnings are below what you think, it will not matter over a lifetime.”

It hasn’t been smooth sailing as, Khazen points out, having a portfolio significantly exposed to travel and leisure can make a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic a bumpy ride.

“Maybe 14 out of 15 names had their business stop overnight,” he says. “At first we had a pretty aggressive drawdown, but we were very disciplined and stuck to our philosophy.

“We had some businesses that were big victims of COVID, but we thought they would come out better businesses, post COVID. We just had to be patient and make sure they had the financial resources to survive that year or two without profits.”

A few years, on and Khazen says his team is continuing to find businesses that were hit by the pandemic and remain undervalued.

“It wasn’t all smooth sailing, but I think we’re in a great position today to build and to expand the business.”

Among the luxury brands, Metronome has retained just one of the names it held in the past, LVMH, alongside stakes in betting companies, bowling alleys and caterers.

“Today we only own one name in the luxury space, but we would love to own more. Either some stocks are too expensive or we have some fundamental issues with some of their brands – we’re watching that space very closely.

“There’s a period of normalisation today and yes, a weak consumer,” he concedes.

“We’re not really sure where it will land, but what we know with a high conviction is that the scale player will gain [market] share in any downturn and will come out a better business at the other end.”

(ZH) Chinese Bitcoin Mines: A Threat To US National Security

Chinese Bitcoin Mines: A Threat To US National Security

Chinese cryptocurrency mining operations have been discovered in 12 U.S. states, raising national security concerns, including Arkansas, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and most notably, as The Epoch Times' Antonio Graceffo details below, The Pentagon is overseeing surveillance of a Chinese bitcoin mining facility in Cheyenne, Wyoming.

This site is near a Microsoft data center that houses sensitive information, providing critical support to the Pentagon.

In a 2022 report submitted to the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), a federal entity responsible for monitoring foreign investments with potential national security implications, Microsoft expressed concerns regarding the Wyoming location, emphasizing the possibility of China engaging in comprehensive intelligence collection activities.

U.S. officials are apprehensive that this mining operation may be able to conduct surveillance on the Francis E. Warren Air Force Base, a mile away from the bitcoin mine. The base is home to the 90th Missile Wing, known as the “Mighty Ninety,” responsible for maintaining “Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) "on full alert 24 hours a day, 365 days a year."

The Wyoming-based mine uses computer hardware sourced from a company known as Bitmain, with some components originating from a location affiliated with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Following the 2021 ban on Bitcoin mining in China, shipments of Bitmain equipment to the United States surged fifteenfold. The New York Times identified Chinese bitcoin mining operations in a dozen states, and it is possible that additional undisclosed mining facilities are in operation.

Another Chinese bitcoin mining entity, YZY Capital Holdings, also acquired land near Warren Air Force Base. These Chinese firms are frequently affiliated with larger parent corporations, often concealed through shell companies, and tend to maintain a deceptive presence with a nominal address in the United States while being registered in the Cayman Islands. The corporate proprietor of the Wyoming Bitcoin mine was previously registered as a pork company located in Manhattan but registered in the Cayman Islands. Similarly, YZY Capital Holdings holds its registration in Manhattan and is owned by Chinese national Yuan Qian, who reportedly has ties to the CCP.

Prior to 2021, the majority of global cryptocurrency mining operations were concentrated in China. However, following Beijing’s decision to ban such activities, the industry shifted to other nations, including the United States. These mining operations often occupy extensive warehouse spaces, usually repurposed from former factories. Their choice of location is driven by the quest for affordable electricity, as cryptocurrency mining is energy-intensive and generates substantial heat. Therefore, these facilities require spacious, well-ventilated areas equipped with fans to regulate temperature.
Tourists walk on the dunes near a power plant in Xiangshawan Desert in Ordos of Inner Mongolia in this file photo. Bitcoin miners have enjoyed favorable electricity rates in places like Ordos for a long time. (Feng Li/Getty Images)

China’s decision to ban cryptocurrency mining was prompted by concerns related to excessive energy consumption and the inability to regulate the flow of currency out of the country.

Notably, one of Beijing’s primary concerns was the potential for capital flight, particularly during economic crises when Chinese citizens sought to move their wealth abroad by converting it into hard currency or investing it in foreign markets. Until 2021, bitcoin had served as a covert means for capital to exit the country. By banning private cryptocurrency, Beijing is eliminating competition for its own central bank digital currency (CBDC), over which it will have full control.

Beijing’s pursuit of cryptocurrency regulation aligns with its economic policies, whereas the U.S. government’s primary concern is rooted in national security. Bitcoin mining facilities concentrate substantial computing power within a single location, potentially opening the door to various activities, including cyberattacks. There are concerns that China may leverage these operations for the unauthorized acquisition of intellectual property, trade secrets, or financial data, posing significant economic risks to the United States.

Another concern pertains to the vulnerability of energy infrastructure. Bitcoin mining is notorious for its substantial energy consumption, potentially straining U.S. power grids. These mining operations’ capacity to intermittently consume vast amounts of energy can lead to grid disruptions, a threat identified by the state of Texas. The unearthing of undisclosed mining facilities could underscore weaknesses within the U.S. energy infrastructure, particularly when these operations are connected to the power grid without the necessary authorization.

Many of the Chinese mines are located in parts of the United States where there is little or no industry or places like Niagara Falls, where joblessness is high. Local governments have warmly welcomed these mining ventures in hopes of jumpstarting their local economies and job opportunities. However, this eagerness also presents opportunities for potential Chinese influence operations. The CCP has a track record of attempting to exert influence through engagement with lower-tier government employees or city and municipal officials.

The CCP might also be utilizing these mining operations to manipulate the price dynamics of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, seeking economic advantages. Acquiring a substantial portion of the bitcoin mining network could allow China to influence transactions or disrupt the network’s stability, potentially undermining U.S. interests. Moreover, the CCP has a history of assisting Mexican drug cartels in money laundering. Bitcoin could facilitate these illicit financial activities. Additionally, cryptocurrencies offer a solution to the challenge of transferring proceeds from drug sales in the United States back to Mexican cartels.

ThesebBitcoin mining operations represent the most recent additions to a series of Chinese businesses found in the United States that raise concerns for national security.

For example, in August, an unlicensed Chinese biolab was uncovered in California, where it was handling potentially lethal viruses and genetically altered mice.

These incidents collectively underscore the risks associated with permitting Chinese companies to invest in the United States and highlight how the CCP may exploit our democratic freedoms.

Furthermore, the government’s response to such discoveries often takes weeks or months, and when it does act, the actions are often fragmented, allowing such issues to persist.

WSJ : Patriot Games: Mideast Turmoil Prompts Shuffle of Prized Defense Systems

Patriot Games: Mideast Turmoil Prompts Shuffle of Prized Defense Systems
Threat from Iran-backed militia groups prompts Pentagon to pivot back to the region

The U.S. military was set to display one of its prized Patriot missile-defense systems at the Dubai Airshow this week, part of the American showcase at one of the world’s biggest arms fairs.

Then war broke out in the Middle East, and the $1 billion battery, mounted on three trucks, was needed to defend U.S. troops based in the region from attack by Iran-backed militia groups—and the Pentagon dropped the plans for the show.

Army leaders have warned for years they lacked enough of the systems, which fire interceptors to shoot down aircraft, missiles and drones, to meet the myriad U.S. national security challenges posed by strategic competition with China, war in Ukraine and fighting in the Middle East.

Some lawmakers have echoed the concerns. “I am concerned about our ability to provide air defense in other areas,” said Rep. Doug Lamborn (R, Colo.), chairman of the House Armed Services subcommittee that handles missile defense. Lamborn said the threats to U.S. forces in the Middle East justified the deployments, but he has been pushing for the funding of more Patriots.

The Pentagon shipped one to Ukraine last spring, to help Kyiv’s forces fend off Russian cruise missiles. Now, following a series of drone and missile attacks on U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq that the Pentagon blames on militias backed by Iran, it has doubled the number of Patriot batteries in the region to at least 12, according to people familiar with the deployment.

The shift of the U.S. Patriots over the past two weeks was a reversal from the trend in recent years in which the U.S. had been reallocating military hardware and personnel from the Middle East to the Pacific to deter any potential challenge from China. It threatens to leave other regions of the world more exposed to cruise and ballistic missiles and other threats, especially in the Pacific.

The Patriot was introduced in 1980 to defend against aircraft and then cruise missiles from the former Soviet Union. After early testing problems and cost overruns that almost saw it canceled, Patriot has evolved into a key part of defenses against a rapidly evolving global missile threat.

The Patriot’s success in defending U.S. forces in the Middle East over the past 20 years has helped fuel demand from buyers including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Poland, Sweden and most recently Switzerland are among European buyers drawn by perceptions of an increased threat from Russia.

RTX, formerly known as Raytheon Technologies, is estimated by analysts to generate $3.5 billion in annual sales from building the Patriot.

The biennial Dubai Airshow, which starts Monday, features displays of military aircraft and equipment and attracts big defense companies such as RTX, Lockheed Martin and Boeing, as well as government buyers from around the world.

Planes, missiles, drones and other equipment will line the tarmac and pavilions at the Al Maktoum International Airport, which features weapons made by Russia and China as well as the U.S. and its allies, and fast-growing exporters including South Korea and Turkey.

The Pentagon was to display a battery, which includes the launcher, radar truck and command station. On Oct. 25, it announced plans to send more air-defense resources to the Middle East.

In the days that followed, the U.S. Army flew six Patriot batteries from the U.S. to the region, joining six that were already in theater, according to people briefed on the transfers. Army recruitment posters for highly skilled Patriot technicians suggest the launchers are based in Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, where the U.S. maintains a presence at about a dozen installations.

Patriot batteries are also cycled through Europe, including deployment in Germany, and one is slated to be based in Guam and another in Hawaii, according to Pentagon plans before the latest escalation in the Middle East.

The Army declined to comment on how many were already in the region and where the new ones are located but said its “plans and commitment to the defense of the homeland have not changed.”

The U.S. has 60 Patriot batteries, while 17 other countries have bought it or placed orders. RTX doesn’t disclose production rates except to say they are being increased. The company has said it would take more than two years to deliver on new orders. Industry executives estimate the company is producing around a dozen Patriot systems a year, little changed from rates 30 years ago.

One battery remains in South Korea and several others are held for training, repair and upgrade in the U.S., according to Pentagon and industry officials. The Ukraine and expanded Middle East deployments leave under half of the U.S. inventory available to guard its forces in the rest of the world.

The Pentagon also has six batteries of the upgraded LTAMDS system, also made by RTX after it beat out competition from Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman to develop a new radar.

These are in testing and won’t be operational before 2025, said the company, with the biggest difference being a radar that can scan 360 degrees, versus the point-and-shoot of the current model.

“If you think back to Patriot when it was developed back in the 1980s, we knew where the threat was coming from,” said Wes Kremer, head of RTX’s defense business, at an investor day. “But now, we don’t know where the threat is coming from.”

FT : Iceland declares state of emergency as it braces for volcanic eruption

Iceland declares state of emergency as it braces for volcanic eruption
Town in south-west evacuated as thousands of earthquakes are recorded close to country’s main airport

Iceland declared a state of emergency after earthquakes raised fears that a volcanic eruption will damage residential areas in the Nordic country for the first time in 50 years.

Iceland evacuated all 4,000 residents the south-western town of Grindavík after a 15km-long underground magma tunnel was detected close to the Fagradalsfjall volcano, increasing the likelihood of an imminent eruption.

The government convened an emergency cabinet meeting on Sunday as thousands of earthquakes were recorded in the area. The activity has rocked the Reykjanes peninsula — home to Iceland’s international airport and the Blue Lagoon tourist site, which has been closed since Thursday.

The mid-Atlantic island of 390,000 people is well used to volcanic eruptions, with several occurring close to Grindavík in recent years. The eruption of Eldfell destroyed several hundred homes on the southern island of Heimaey in 1973, though there were no fatalities.

The 2010 explosion at Eyjafjallajökull closed much of European airspace for almost a week after plumes of ash clouds spread south. Volcanologists said there is a lower risk of a big ash cloud from this volcano, but that one was possible if eruptions occur at sea.

Grindavík is only 19km from Keflavik airport, Iceland’s main international entry point, but flights are carrying on largely as normal.

Huge cracks have appeared in roads around Grindavík. Authorities said on Sunday that it should be safe for residents to return to collect essentials and evacuate pets and livestock, subject to close monitoring.

“I felt the most scared for my life I have ever been,” said American basketball player Danielle Rodriguez, who lives in Grindavík, about the evacuation on social media platform X, formerly Twitter.

“The ground started shaking so much I had to grab a hold of the car and honest to god for a good 30 seconds I felt as though the ground was going to crack open and take us both [her girlfriend and her],” she added.


Experts said that an eruption could happen at any time, and that the current seismic activity made such event likely but not guaranteed in the coming days.

“The overall assessment from the status meeting was that the likelihood of a volcanic eruption is high, and that an eruption could be possible on a timescale of just days,” the Icelandic Met Office said on Saturday night.

It added that the magma intrusion was slowly moving towards the surface and was currently estimated to be 800 metres below the ground. The likelihood of an underwater eruption had also increased “so preparations must be made for the possibility of explosive activity”, it added.

Miss Tweed : The Estée Series – 1-How the company got scent off course

The Estée Series – 1-How the company got scent off course

What would Estée Lauder, the doyenne of the modern cosmetic industry, say? The Estée Lauder Companies, her namesake multinational, appears to be stuck in a downward spiral. The $41bn group has missed expectations nearly every quarter this year. Then last week, it again cut growth targets. America’s biggest beauty group keeps losing market share to rivals such as France’s L’Oréal and Spain’s Puig. Many of its flagship brands such as Clinique and the Estée Lauder brand are no longer as strong as they once were.

The time has come to brush off the cobwebs, industry insiders say. The Lauder family let them grow in the same way the Ferragamo family refused to touch the Italian shoemaking brand for many years before the arrival of CEO Marco Gobbetti, as Miss Tweed reported last month. It’s the “Ferragamo syndrome.” For the longest time, the descendants of the Ferragamo brand could not find the courage to alter its products and communication. For them, it felt like killing the memory of their grandfather Salvatore, founder of the brand. The same thing has happened to the Lauder family. Revamping brands such as Estée Lauder means destroying the memory and heritage of its beloved founder, who died in 2004 aged 97. The brand is sacrosanct, untouchable. And as a result, it has become irrelevant. It’s seen as for grandmothers, like Ferragamo was before its brutal (and not yet successful) makeover initiated by Gobbetti.

Karl Lagerfeld would often describe Coco Chanel as an old lady who needed to be shaken up from time to time. That way, he explained, he made sure it stayed connected to the Zeitgeist and constantly said new things. The success of a legacy brand depends on finding the right balance between heritage and relevance.

Like the Ferragamo family who control their namesake fashion house, it’s up to the Lauder family, who own about 38% of total common shares, and a whopping 86% of voting power, to drive the change.

The group warned net sales would decrease between 9 and 11 percent in the current quarter to Dec. 31 from a year earlier. The company’s CEO Fabrizio Freda has been blaming the company’s woes on in its all-important travel retail division and weak business in China. Last week, Freda said the conflict in the Middle East was also responsible for the lowered outlook. No wonder. Freda may well feel he needs to pass the blame to justify his bumper pay which reached $65.9m in compensation last year. Freda is the second-most “overpaid” CEO among those at companies on the S&P 500, according to an annual ranking by the world’s biggest shareholder advocacy group As You Sow published in March this year. The company has not replied to Miss Tweed’s requests for comment.

PROFITABILITY
Freda announced a series of measures designed to improve profitability in 2024, 2025 and 2026. That means that even less money will be invested in the image and desirability of the group’s portfolio of brands – which industry insiders underline as its main problem in recent years. Freda is obsessed with financial performance. He’s not interested in storytelling. Those who were, and excelled at building brands – many of them former executives of French group L’Oréal who clashed with the Italian executive – have left the company in the past three to four years. In 2022, Freda sacked John Demsey over an Instagram post which was described by the company as a racist meme.

Demsey was one of Estée group’s greatest assets. He had a talent for developing brands, industry experts say. For example, he helped M.A.C. position itself as the make-up artist brand fashion designers loved to partner with for their shows. Today, M.A.C. is no longer the dominant brand on the podium. Charlotte Tilbury and Pat McGrath Labs are the new go-to make-up providers for catwalks. In recent years, the company has consistently missed out on industry trends. For example, consumers now are into vegan, clean products (with no additives or preservatives) and face creams recommended by dermatologists, a market in which Estée group has not invested much.

L’Oréal with brands such as La Roche-Posay and Cerave is much more present. During lockdowns, there was a boom in demand for shampoo as hairdressers were closed, but Estée failed to seize on the opportunity and boost advertising for Aveda and Bumble and bumble while L’Oréal fired on all cylinders, actively promoting Kérastase and Garnier.

Problems at the Estée Lauder Companies run deep, industry insiders and former executives say. They point to a corporate culture problem, a kind of complacency no-one appears ready to address or acknowledge. Family executives and senior managers, paid millions if not tens of millions of dollars, are said to be socialites, living a high life and spend more time attending glamorous events than reading market intelligence or coming up with disruptive ideas.

Estée group is often cited as the cosmetics player that took a long time to realize consumers no longer bought beauty products at department stores but at specialized boutiques and online. It also started massively investing in Asia more than a decade after its main rivals. The corporate culture is very top-down, people who worked at the company say. “You have to kiss the hand,” said one former Estée manager. “It was not like that when Leonard was in charge.”

Leonard Lauder, 90, the oldest son of Estée and Joseph Lauder who founded the company in 1946, started packaging products. He encouraged anyone to come forth with a good idea or warn about a problem. “That’s no longer the case. You cannot question management’s strategy, you risk losing your job if you do,” the former company manager said. Former staff say there is also a lot of duplication of responsibilities, which means that there are often several people working on the same project who roughly have the same responsibilities and do not take any initiative.

LEONARD LAUDER
Leonard Lauder remains chairman emeritus but is no longer involved in day-to-day operations. He had infused the company with a passion for developing brands and products. That drive has been fading since he retired few years ago, managers say. “It’s complicated now at Estée Lauder since Leonard left,” the founder of one of the company’s brands told Miss Tweed on condition of anonymity. “And it’s not clear who will replace him.” “Leonard was an amazing force who has no voice today because of his age,” said another former Estée manager. Under Leonard’s leadership, the company launched many brands, including Aramis, Clinique, Lab Series and Origins.

Beginning in the mid-1990s,itbegan expanding through acquisitions, including Aveda, Bobbi Brown Cosmetics, Jo Malone London, La Mer and M·A·C. Born Josephine Esther “Esty” Mentzer, Estée was raised in New York’s Queens by her mother Rose and father Max, who immigrated to the United States from Hungary. Her last name was originally Lauter and was changed to Lauder to sound more aristocratic. Her middle name Estée was also changed to tap into the lure of Parisian chic.

One of her first successes was Youth-Dew, a bath oil that doubled as a perfume she released in 1953. Estée Lauder’s Youth-Dew products still exists today. In 1995, Estée’s son Leonard, took over and helped build the company into a global business. His much younger brother Ronald, 79, was less involved with the company. He pursued a career in politics and led many important Jewish associations such as the World Jewish Congress and Jewish National Fund. He worked in defense under President Ronald Regan and in diplomacy afterwards as ambassador. In 1989, he was a contender for Mayor of New York City.

None of the children of Ronald or Leonard appear to be of the corporate stature to take over. None of them has built a strong enough track record at the company and appear ready to meet the challenge of the extensive revamp the flagship beauty brands need if they want to regain traction. Clinique and the other Estée Lauder brands haven’t made a major product breakthrough in recent years. They continue to surf on their best-sellers from decades ago.

Clinique has remained stuck in its “three-step” products and failed to evolve under the leadership of Jane Lauder, daughter of Ronald and billionaire heiress of the Lauder family name. Her poor management of Clinique discredited her as a potential successor to CEO Freda, investors tell Miss Tweed. She is today the company’s executive vice president and chief data officer. She is the only one who stands up to Freda and helps somewhat preserve the Lauder family spirit, industry sources say.

Meanwhile, the Estée Lauder brand has remained focused on its bestselling Double Wear foundation and anti-age serum Advanced Night Repair. The latter was a huge hit in China. But it’s partly because of that success that senior management grew complacent, industry analysts say. “Business was going so well, they did not have to think about tomorrow. It took them time to realize they had to invest in that market. And by the time they really did, the pandemic hit,” one former company senior manager said.

It wasn’t always so complacent. In 2015, Estée Lauder was the first beauty group to invest in niche perfume brands, buying Editions de parfums Frederic Malle and two years later Le Labo and Kilian. L’Oréal, LVMH and Puig would soon follow suit. Many of Estée group’s niche fragrance and make-up brands have been stifled by heavy corporate processes, senior sources tell Miss Tweed. That’s particularly the case with Frederic Malle. It has not grown as much as the company hoped, and in recent years, it appears to have stopped investing in it.

The brand’s concept is publishing the work of “noses”. It allows them to tell their story via a fragrance. The creator of a perfume is usually never advertised. Malle’s idea is great, but it has proven too intellectual to succeed at the company. “Frederic Malle himself invested more money in the brand than Estée group itself,” one person close to the U.S. cosmetics maker said. “Now he’s miserable and exploring options.”

Frederic Malle, the founder of the brand, declined to comment. The company’s other later Californian acquisitions, on which it spent billions, such as make-up brands Too-Faced and Smashbox and the face mask specialist Glamglow have not performed as strongly as expected and have had to lay off staff. Two years ago, the company shut down Australia’s Becca Cosmetics, bought in 2016, and some industry insiders expect it will eventually have to shut down Glamglow.

Another important character in the Lauder drama unfolding is William Lauder, 63, son of Leonard and Evelyn Lauder and executive chairman of the company. He keeps publicly renewing his confidence in the abilities of Fabrizio Freda to lead the company. William does not want to admit that the company, arguably, has lost its way. But the time has come to think about who will replace 66-year-old Freda, who has been in the post since 2009 and accumulated wealth estimated at several hundreds of millions of dollars.

Freda prolonged his term and obtained very lucrative incentives to stay through at least until June 30, 2024, when he will be awarded stock payouts. A year ago, he said he was “completely committed to continue leading this company for the foreseeable future” but the Lauder family needs to think about who will replace him. They need to decide what kind of leader they want and what the company’s strategy is.

FT : US offshore wind goals will be missed, say parts manufacturers

US offshore wind goals will be missed, say parts manufacturers
Sector must be fundamentally reset to become economically viable, executives warn

The Biden administration’s plan to increase offshore wind generation capacity by 2030 will not be met, executives at the world’s biggest turbine manufacturers have said, warning that the sector needed a reset to become economically viable.

The White House has set a goal of installing 30 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity by 2030 — enough to power 10mn homes — and has made the target central to its plans to slash carbon pollution.

But recent project cancellations, including Danish developer Ørsted’s decision to pull two offshore projects in New Jersey, and soaring costs had thrown the entire strategy into peril, said executives.

The 2030 target was “widely and regretfully acknowledged” to be unrealistic, said Josh Irwin, senior vice-president of offshore wind at Vestas, the world’s largest offshore wind manufacturer.

“These cancellations and delays go beyond growing pains,” Irwin told the Financial Times, adding that Vestas lacked the certainty needed to move forward with plans to build a US factory.

“The US industry is in the middle of a fundamental reset to restore economic viability.”

Richard Voorberg, chief executive of Siemens Energy North America, made similar comments this week, saying the administration’s 2030 offshore wind target was now a “tall order”.

“The market’s got a problem. You look at Siemens Energy, you look at GE, you look at Vestas, the big players, we’re all losing money . . . That’s not a sustainable model,” Voorberg told the FT’s Investing in America summit on Tuesday.

The warnings from the largest wind manufacturers came as developers move to cancel or renegotiate contracts after suffering steep losses. Aside from Ørsted, Avangrid and Shell have cancelled projects, and BP and Equinor reported $840mn in impairments last quarter from their two New York projects after the state rejected their requests to renegotiate contracts.

Just one offshore wind project is in full operation in the US, generating 30 megawatts of electricity per year off the coast of the state of Rhode Island.

The delays pose a risk to the US’s plans to halve its emissions by 2030 as well as President Joe Biden’s ambition to create a domestic offshore wind manufacturing sector — an effort to create jobs while also breaking dependence on foreign supply chains.

The administration’s landmark Inflation Reduction Act, which passed Congress last year, included about $370bn worth of sweeteners to stimulate domestic cleantech manufacturing. At least 10 offshore wind ports and five projects to build vessels and structures for offshore wind have been announced since the IRA passed.

But rising project costs and expectations that interest rates will remain higher for longer are hurting the sector’s prospects, analysts have said.


Vestas has agreed to supply offshore wind projects in New Jersey and New York and plans to build a nacelle factory. But the facility — for which the planned capital expenditure has not been announced — could be shelved if the Atlantic Shores, a project planned by Shell and EDF Renewables offshore New Jersey, does not go ahead.

The developers have called on the state for “immediate action”, warning that “tens of thousands of real, well-paid and unionised jobs are at risk”.

“We’re taking a wait-and-see approach because we need to gain confidence in a multiyear, multi-project pipeline of demand,” Irwin said. 

More than half of US offshore wind contracts have been cancelled this year or are at risk of cancellation, according to consultancy BloombergNEF, which says the US 2030 offshore wind targets are “impossible” at this time. 

The three largest wind turbine manufacturers, Siemens Energy, General Electric and Vestas, have all reported consecutive quarterly losses in their wind segments in the past year.

“We know the industry is ready for a reset . . . We think we can make a much better business with offshore wind, but we’re staring at some challenges that we need to address here in the fourth quarter and in 24,” GE chief executive Larry Culp told analysts last month.

The uncertainty among builders leaves the future of towns betting on an industrial revival from the sector up in the air. The US Department of Energy estimates that the country’s offshore wind industry could need up to 58,000 jobs per year from 2024-2030 if the local supply grows as planned.

“It’s heartbreaking . . . Everyone’s like, ‘What do we do now?’” said Stephen Sweeney, a former New Jersey state senator and union leader, after Ørsted’s decision to pull two projects in the state.

Sweeney resides in the third district, where the state is building a $400mn offshore wind port. Ørsted would have been its first tenant.