>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 23rd of November 2023 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Adecco Raised to Buy at Bank Vontobel; PT 50 Swiss francs (+)
* Anglo American Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank
* BAE PT Raised to 1,300 pence from 1,150 pence at JPMorgan
* HUTCHMED China ADRs Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $22.10
* Panostaja Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 57 euro cents
* Sage Raised to Buy at Bryan Garnier; PT 1,450 pence

>>> Down
* Interroll Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 2,600 Swiss francs
* Kion Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 34 euros
* Telecom Argentina ADRs Cut to Sector Underperform at Scotiabank

>>> Initiation
* Arise Rated New Buy at SEB Equities; PT 73 kronor
* Autostore Rated New Hold at Arctic Securities; PT 18 kroner
* Auto Trader Assumed Sell at UBS
* OX2 Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 60 kronor
* Shield Therapeutics Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT 15 pence (+)

>>> Call
* Anglo American Raised, Among Top Mining Picks at Deutsche Bank (+)
* BAE Gets New Street-High PT at JPMorgan on Growth, Visibility (+)

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • AMS-Osram (DQW1 TH) +1.1%
  • Telia (TLS TH) +0.9%
  • Delivery Hero (DHER TH) +0.8%
  • Anglo American (NGLB TH) +0.7%
    • Anglo American’s high-stakes bet on a new way to feed the world
  • Rio Tinto (RIO1 TH) +0.7%
  • Shell (R6C0 TH) +0.6%
  • Novo (NOV TH) +0.6%
    • Novo Nordisk Invests $2.3 Billion in France Site as Demand Grows
  • TotalEnergies (TOTB TH) +0.6%
  • BP (BPE5 TH) +0.5%
  • Commerzbank (CBK TH) -0.5%
  • ASML (ASME TH) -0.7%
    • Disinflation, Euro Headwinds May Crimp 2024 Euro Stoxx 50 EPS
  • Hochtief (HOT TH) -0.8%
  • Danone (BSN TH) -0.8%
  • Nel (D7G TH) -0.9%
  • Deutsche Bank (DBK TH) -1%
  • HelloFresh (HFG TH) -1.1%
  • Addtech (AZZ2 TH) -1.3%
  • Rheinmetall (RHM TH) -1.9%
    • Germany Freezes Military Fund After Court Ruling, Paper Reports
  • Kion (KGX TH) -2.9%
    • Kion Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 34 euros

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Deutsche Bank (DBK TH) -1.2%
  • Rheinmetall (RHM TH) -1.6%
    • Germany Freezes Military Fund After Court Ruling, Paper Reports
MDAX:
  • Delivery Hero (DHER TH) +1.3%
  • Hensoldt (HAG TH) -2.3%
  • Kion (KGX TH) -2.6%
    • Kion Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 34 euros
SDAX:
  • GFT (GFT TH) +2.1%
  • SGL (SGL TH) +1.6%
  • Aroundtown (AT1 TH) -1.4%
  • Thyssenkrupp Nucera AG & Co KGaa (NCH2 TH) -1.8%

WWD : Fifth Avenue, Via Montenapoleone Top List of World’s Priciest Retail Venue

Fifth Avenue, Via Montenapoleone Top List of World’s Priciest Retail Venues
Cushman & Wakefield details retail rents along prime luxury venues around the globe.

Retail rents along prime venues are back on the rise after taking a dive during the pandemic.

Manhattan’s Fifth Avenue and Milan’s Via Montenapoleone rank as the world’s most expensive retail venues this year, at $2,000 per square foot and $1,766 per square foot, respectively.

Placing third is Hong Kong’s Tsim Sha Tsui, at $1,493 per square foot. Tsim Sha Tsui formerly held the second place spot until being displaced by Via Montenapoleone.

Those are some of the findings from the 2023 version of Cushman & Wakefield’s annual report, “Main Streets Across the World,” which focuses on venues for luxury brands. The giant commercial real estate service firm report lists rents in both U.S. dollars and foreign currencies for comparison purposes.

C&W indicated that Fifth Avenue retail rents, from 49th to 60th Streets, on average remained flat in 2023 at $2,000 a foot, compared to last year, but were up 14 percent against pre-pandemic levels.

In the past year, several high-profile flagship stores have opened along Fifth Avenue in Midtown including Abercrombie & Fitch, Chopard, Mango, the reimagined Tiffany flagship and Swarovski. A Chanel jewelry store will be opening soon on the avenue. In addition, Louis Vuitton intends to renovate its Fifth Avenue and 57th Street flagship and temporarily operate across the street along 57th.

Via Montenapoleone’s average rents in 2023 rose 20 percent year-over-year, and are 31 percent ahead of pre-pandemic levels.

In the fourth and fifth positions, respectively, are New Bond Street in London at $1,462 per square foot, and Avenues des Champs-Élysées in Paris at $1,120 per square foot.

The sixth most expensive retail venue in the world is Tokyo’s Ginza, at $912 a square foot, unchanged from 2022.

Zurich’s Bahnhofstrassse, Sydney’s Pitt Street Mall, Seoul’s Myeongdong and Vienna’s Kohlmarkt, ranked seventh, eighth, ninth and 10th on C&W’s list, respectively.

Moving the most up the ranks was Istiklal Street in Istanbul, which leapt to 20th position on the rankings from 31st last year. C&W reported that rampant inflation caused rents to more than double over the past year, with Istiklal rents rising to $245 a square foot this year, or a whopping 120 percent above last year.

Meanwhile, Biblioteksgatan in Stockholm dropped to 27th place in the rankings from 24th place, which C&W attributed to the euro strengthening against the U.S. dollar moreso than the Swedish krona, despite rent prices in Stockholm growing.

“Rents across global prime retail destinations continued their ongoing recovery, increasing on average 4.8 percent in local currency terms over the past year, compared to a 3.7 percent growth in 2022,” C&W said. “The strongest growth was recorded in Asia Pacific, which averaged 5.3 percent, with the Americas at 5.2 percent and Europe at 4.2 percent. Notwithstanding comparatively strong growth over the past year, in most instances, the increase in rents did not match levels of peak inflation.”

C&W also indicted that almost 60 percent of markets globally remain below pre-pandemic rental levels. “This is most evident in Europe where 70 percent of markets are below pre-pandemic rents. In contrast, in the U.S., only 31 percent are below pre-pandemic levels; 69 percent are above,” C&W indicated.

The report also provides commentary on the retail sector, citing “fresh challenges in the past year such as higher although easing inflation, rising interest rates and slowing economic growth” putting consumers under “sustained pressure.”

“Compounding these challenges is the ongoing question over the vibrancy of prime CBDs [downtown] as the ‘return to the office’ remains lackluster across many parts of the world,” C&W said. In New York City, while there remains much unused office space, this year there has been a noticeable pickup in pedestrian traffic along Fifth Avenue with locals and tourists. Among the stores drawing the most traffic have been the new Tiffany’s flagship, Louis Vuitton, Zara and Uniqlo.

According to C&W, international tourism has not having fully yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels.

Part of the report is devoted to how the luxury sector has fared. The report states, “Although the luxury sector has slowed overall, luxury sales growth remains in positive territory as seen in recent third-quarter 2023 earnings results. The end of 2023 and into 2024 is likely to remain a challenging trading period but one that we are confident the sector can endure as it continues to evolve to meet economic and societal change.…For the luxury sector, this represents a normalization in their customer base after a period of strong fiscal stimulus, but as noted, sales growth is slowing.”

C&W points out that consumer spending patterns are shifting for several reasons, and consumers are largely reigning in on discretionary spending. Inflation and higher borrowing and interest costs are among the issues, while C&W noted that central banks have undertaken “one of the most aggressive interest rate hiking cycles in decades.”

While there have several retail openings on Fifth Avenue and other prime venues internationally, as C&W noted, there are challenges for further additions. “Retailers are understandably reluctant to allocate large capital expenditure budgets at a time of slowing revenue and increasing costs,” C&W reported. “Vacancy in super-prime retail locations remains tight, however, leading to competitive tension when these rare sites become available.”

“For all regions except South America, economic growth is expected to be slower in 2024 than 2023, with the U.S., U.K. and parts of Europe either dipping into a mild recession or skirting very close to it. Similarly, as interest rate hikes have taken effect, consumer sentiment has dampened, remaining in negative territory at levels as low as during the pandemic.”

The Information : What Comes Next for Sam Altman’s OpenAI

What Comes Next for Sam Altman’s OpenAI

Sam Altman is back as OpenAI’s CEO. Now he faces the hard part: mending the fracture that led to his ouster less than five days before—and repairing an image that had lost its shine as the corporate drama spilled into the public view.

Among the most immediate challenges will be determining the role of Ilya Sutskever, the company’s visionary chief scientist, and his allies on the company’s AI safety team who initially supported Altman’s ouster. At the same time, Altman needs to act quickly to undo any damage to OpenAI’s standing with its customers and employees. OpenAI competitors such as Amazon, Anthropic, Cohere and Adept spent the past few days trying to pitch customers or recruit employees.

THE TAKEAWAY
Sam Altman has made a triumphant return to the helm of the AI powerhouse co-founded, carried by a swell of support from employees and investors, including key backer Microsoft. First he’ll have to heal the rift that drove his ouster in the first place.

Late Tuesday, OpenAI CTO Mira Murati told employees Altman had reached an agreement in principle to return to the company he co-founded. The decision ended what was one of the most remarkable five days in recent tech history, starting with Altman’s surprise dismissal midday Friday and including Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella’s late Sunday announcement that Altman, former President Greg Brockman and other OpenAI employees would join the company to lead a new AI research team.

The sudden firing over what the board said was a lack of candor on Altman’s part rocked the staff at the startup and threatened to derail an employee share sale that would value the company at $86 billion. By midday Monday, nearly all of the 770 person staff had signed a letter pledging to quit if Altman and former president Greg Brockman were not reinstated.

Divisions Over AI Safety

One of the most serious problems Altman will have to tackle is growing disquiet among some researchers over whether the company was doing enough to ensure the rapidly improving technology doesn’t do any harm. Sutskever, the chief scientist and co-founder who told Altman the board had fired him, is integral to resolving those differences.

In a sign Sutskever had become increasingly concerned about AI risks, Sutskever in recent months took on the leadership of a new team focused on limiting threats from artificial intelligence systems vastly smarter than humans. At the same time, OpenAI has moved rapidly to commercialize its technology. In the last year, the company has boosted its revenue to more than $1.3 billion by selling access to its models to developers and to consumers through ChatGPT.

Those priorities have also changed the composition of the company. The number of employees working on “applied” AI, which involves building products, has swelled.

Sutskever has told staff Altman’s behavior and board interactions undermined its ability to supervise the company’s development of AI. But on Monday, Sutskever said he deeply regretted participating in the board’s actions and would “do everything I can to reunite the company.”

The Board

The blowup exposed the weakness in OpenAI’s corporate structure, which diverges from most startups. The board represents the nonprofit that governs the for-profit startup. The board’s mission is to ensure AI developed by its lab benefits humanity—not just investors.

That structure gave investors such as Khosla Ventures, Sequoia Capital and Thrive Capital limited leverage over the decision by the board. Microsoft, its biggest backer, has suggested that the governance structure should change.

Altman has reason to hear these investor concerns: He has said that the company will need to raise as much as $100 billion to develop its technology.

Already some changes are underway. As part of a compromise for the return, neither Altman nor Brockman will reclaim their seats on the company's board. The returning executives also agreed to a new three-person board chaired by Bret Taylor, a former co-CEO of Salesforce, including former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers and Quora CEO Adam D'Angelo, who was part of the old board that fired Altman.

The outcome was a relief to investors. In a statement, a Thrive spokeperson said “OpenAI has the potential to be one of the most consequential companies in the history of computing. Sam and Greg possess a profound commitment to the company’s integrity, and an unmatched ability to inspire and lead.” The return of the team was “the best outcome for the company, its employees, those who build on their technologies, and the world at large."

Altman’s Many Interests

When Altman returns, he’ll likely have to address claims that he’s been distracted by a number of projects, including those outside OpenAI. In addition to his hundreds of external investments, Altman earlier this year held discussions with former Apple designer Jony Ive and SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son about creating a new AI hardware device, The Information first reported.

More recently, the CEO spoke with semiconductor executives, including chip designer Arm, about early efforts to design new chips that would lower costs for large-language-model developers like OpenAI. It’s not clear if Altman was representing OpenAI or a separate venture in those discussions. Altman has also talked to investors about the importance of developing an AI startup that’s also involved in chip development, The Information first reported.

As part of his return, he has agreed to an internal investigation into alleged conduct that prompted the board to oust him, The Information first reported.

Growing Pains

OpenAI’s skyrocketing growth is coming at a cost—and competition is intensifying, including from allies such as Microsoft. The number of its staff selling to large companies grew rapidly in the past year. But it faced an unlikely rival in OpenAI’s largest shareholder Microsoft, which began to siphon revenue away from the startup by selling access to its AI software.

With mounting pressure to accelerate sales and product development came increased reports of employee burnout, former employees said. This week, many employees had been scheduled to get the week off, given how intense the past few months were. And over time, divisions formed between veteran employees who remembered OpenAI’s early days as a research organization and the new guard who hailed from money-making Silicon Valley startups like Stripe, former employees said.

OpenAI has looked to hire more research and engineering leadership from rival model developers like Meta Platforms and Google to provide the company with structure as it grows, said one person with knowledge of the situation. But OpenAI may not have the same pull it once did. Access to the massive amounts of computing resources needed to train bleeding-edge models is one area where rivals have a leg up. Even Altman has admitted to some colleagues that he expects Google to hold a computing advantage until sometime next year, when Microsoft will make more chips available, The Information previously reported.

Customers

In the hours after Altman’s firing, OpenAI competitors began using the turmoil to their advantage.

More than 100 customers reached out to Anthropic over the weekend, according to someone with direct knowledge. Others reached out to Google Cloud and Cohere. Many OpenAI customers were also considering switching to Microsoft’s Azure service, which offers copies of OpenAI models and other models, according to a person familiar with the situation.

While some of these OpenAI customers have previously been in talks with other AI startups, the more recent discussions had focused on Altman’s firing and potential impact it could have on their business. Financial firms specifically expressed their worry that if Altman was ousted over a possible data privacy issue, it could harm their businesses, this person said.

Amazon Web Services set up a dedicated team to work with Anthropic and respond to OpenAI customer inquiries. Over the weekend, AWS and Anthropic discussed how to pitch several OpenAI customers, including Snap, Morgan Stanley and Wall Street trading firm Jane Street.

FT : VW becomes latest non-union carmaker to raise US pay

VW becomes latest non-union carmaker to raise US pay
German carmaker’s 11% increase follows moves by Nissan, Hyundai, Honda and Toyota to lift workers’ wages

Volkswagen has become the latest foreign carmaker to raise wages for US workers following significant pay gains won by the United Auto Workers in a six-week strike against Ford, General Motors and Stellantis.

The German group’s 11 per cent pay increase means that three-quarters of non-unionised US car plants owned by traditional car brands have now raised wages since the deal, a pattern the union is calling “the UAW bump”. It has quipped on social media that its initials stand for, “You Are Welcome”.

VW on Wednesday will announce that it will raise wages for workers at its Chattanooga plant in Tennessee by 11 per cent from next month.

Japan’s Subaru said last week that it plans to raise pay at its Indiana plant, and is expected to detail the increase this week.

Nissan, this week, announced a 10 per cent pay rise for its US factory workers from the start of next year. Hyundai, which also runs a plant owned by sister brand Kia, said on November 13 that it will increase workers’ pay by 25 per cent by 2028, while Honda and Toyota have announced smaller increases. Toyota also said it will shorten the time it takes workers to reach the top pay grade from eight years to four, mirroring another UAW gain.

Volvo Cars, which has a plant in South Carolina, earlier this month told staff it will raise wages, a measure the company said it had planned since the spring.

BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Tesla all run non-unionised plants in the US and are yet to detail any increases.

Democratic senator Bernie Sanders noted the pay increases last week in a Senate subcommittee hearing, comparing the move to the raise Amazon offered its warehouse workers and drivers following a deal between the Teamsters this summer and UPS, which will raise workers’ pay by $7.50 an hour over five years.

“These historic union victories are not only improving the lives of union members, but that is beginning to spill over into the lives of non-union workers in America as well,” he said.

The UAW has said it plans to use its wins at the bargaining table against the traditional Big Three to lead organising drives at the US plants for non-union carmakers. The increases appear to be an attempt to forestall those efforts, but unlike the gains won by workers at Ford, GM and Stellantis, the increases at the foreign carmakers are not guaranteed by a legally binding contract.

Ford chair Bill Ford said last month during the strike that the company’s union employees should unite with management to compete against non-unionised carmakers, saying the dispute “should not be Ford versus the UAW. It should be Ford and the UAW versus Toyota and Honda, Tesla and all the Chinese companies that want to enter our home market.”

But UAW president Shawn Fain replied that no alliance existed between Ford and its unionised workers, rather “it’s autoworkers everywhere against corporate greed . . . Workers at Tesla, Toyota, Honda and others are not the enemy — they’re the UAW members of the future.”

Fain laid out further recruiting plans at the subcommittee hearing chaired by Sanders, saying the union would primarily target plants in the south. Many foreign carmakers are located in southern states because they have passed right-to-work laws, which drain union resources by allowing employees who are represented by a union to decline to pay dues.

US law hamstrings organising efforts because it allows employers to punish union leaders with minimal consequences and to hold mandatory meetings where workers must listen to anti-union messages, according to the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute. Earlier UAW efforts to organise in the south met defeat at Nissan’s plant in Mississippi and VW’s in Tennessee, while in February, 18 workers at Tesla said they were fired for organising a union drive.

But the UAW already has established virtual sign-up sheets at Action Network, a non-profit that provides tech tools for progressive causes, to collect the names of workers at Toyota, Honda, Subaru and Tesla who are interested in forming a union. Fain said “thousands” of workers have already contacted the UAW and signed union cards.

“We are going to organise like we’ve never organised before, because our strike has shown the Nissan worker in Alabama, and the Volkswagen worker in Tennessee, and the Toyota worker in Kentucky, and the Tesla worker in California that when union members win, the entire working-class wins,” he said.

>>> US Research Calls

Research Calls
  • Upgrades:
    • Applied Materials (AMAT) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Redburn Atlantic; tgt $175
    • ASM Intl NV (ASMIY) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Redburn Atlantic
    • Baidu (BIDU) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Nomura; tgt $145
    • Clorox (CLX) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan; tgt raised to $145
    • GoDaddy (GDDY) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt raised to $124
    • Moog (MOG.A) upgraded to Equal-Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt raised to $141
    • Ovintiv (OVV) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup; tgt raised to $52
    • Southwestern Energy (SWN) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Wells Fargo
  • Downgrades:
    • APA Corp. (APA) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup; tgt lowered to $37
    • Autodesk (ADSK) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Sandler; tgt lowered to $215
    • Foot Locker (FL) downgraded to Sell from Hold at Williams Trading
    • HSBC Holdings (HSBC) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts
    • iQIYI (IQ) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan
    • Jacobs Engineering (J) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Raymond James
    • Reynolds Consumer Products (REYN) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $28
    • Virgin Galactic (SPCE) downgraded to Underweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $1.75
  • Others:
    • AmBev (ABEV) initiated with a Hold at Jefferies
    • American Fincl (AFG) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup; tgt $125
    • Arch Capital (ACGL) initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup; tgt $91
    • Calidi Biotherapeutics (CLDI) initiated with a Buy at H.C. Wainwright; tgt $11
    • Cincinnati Fincl (CINF) initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup; tgt $110
    • Compania Cervecerias Unidas (CCU) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies
    • Dianthus Therapeutics (DNTH) initiated with an Outperform at Wedbush; tgt $23
    • GitLab (GTLB) initiated with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald; tgt $55
    • KLA Corporation (KLAC) initiated with a Neutral at Redburn Atlantic; tgt $550
    • Lam Research (LRCX) initiated with a Buy at Redburn Atlantic; tgt $800
    • Markel Group (MKL) initiated with a Sell at Citigroup; tgt $1275
    • RenaissanceRe (RNR) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup; tgt $251
    • Saia (SAIA) initiated with a Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets; tgt $450
    • TD Synnex (SNX) initiated with a Neutral at UBS; tgt $105

>>> Germany 2024 federal budget has been delayed by the recent court ruling on s

Germany 2024 federal budget has been delayed by the recent court ruling on special funds and will not go to Parliament next week Recap of Response to German Court Ruling on Pandemic Aid for Climate Funds
- On Nov 21st, Germany Econ Min Habeck said constitutional court ruling causes chain reaction; We must discuss consequences
- On Nov 20th, Germany Econ Min Habeck said recent court ruling on German budget is a major blow to domestic economy; How govt will address judgement is not yet decided
- On Nov 17th, Germany Econ Ministry said constitutional court ruling on budget could have negative effect on growth
- On Nov 16th, reportedly decision by Germany’s top court to strike down repurposing €60B of pandemic aid from 2021 to finance climate protection has called into question about €770B of state funding; Scholz’s coalition vows to find a solution - press
- On Nov 16th, German Constitutional Court ruled transfer of unused pandemic debt into climate fund was illegal