FT : Gucci’s slump means the end of the luxury megatrend

Gucci’s slump means the end of the luxury megatrend
The dramatic sales collapse suggests it is time to consider each brand individually

Investing is not immune to passing fashions. In recent years, it has mainly been a macro game, with Fed tea-leaf readers, consumer-spending trackers and China analysts much in demand. Big shifts have sunk whole sectors and lifted others — think AI and defence. Luxury groups, too, rode a post-pandemic spending wave. No longer: it is time to bring back the untrendy art of stock picking. 

Look no further than Kering’s dramatic sales warning this week. The French giant, controlled by billionaire François-Henri Pinault, expects first-quarter sales down 10 per cent — compared to consensus expectations of a 3 per cent fall — driven by a near 20 per cent collapse at Gucci. Worse still, the group blamed the slump on the all-important Asia-Pacific consumer, the health of which keeps sector investors up at night. 

That’s given rise to a predictable slew of luxury concerns. Kering slumped 12 per cent on Wednesday. But shares in LVMH, Richemont and Dior were off too, on fears that the softening of China’s luxury growth might turn into a crash. 

It would be wise to avoid jumping to macro conclusions. As Lex has pointed out, Chinese consumer spending showed signs of resilience over the all-important New Year period. Rival Prada, earlier this month, pointed to an encouraging start to the year. At Kering, stripping out Gucci’s performance suggests that smaller brands such as Bottega Veneta and Saint Laurent are holding up better. There is ample evidence that Gucci’s stumble is of its own making.

The brand is in a tricky spot. It is attempting to reshape its aesthetics from loud fashion to new creative director Sabato de Sarno’s quieter luxury. But the new collection, which Kering has been promoting heavily, only accounts for a small proportion of the items in store.


Gucci still belongs to the select club of megabrands with $10bn or more of sales. But the combination of falling sales and margin compression could lop 20 to 25 per cent off forecasts for the brand’s full-year operating profit, think Citi. Worse, empty stores speak to waning desirability, an ephemeral asset that is hard to recover once it is lost.

There is one lesson that can be extrapolated from Gucci’s plight. Brand momentum matters, and luxury turnarounds are hard to pull off — especially in softening markets. Burberry and Ferragamo should take note. Investors, meanwhile, no longer have the luxury of buying into a megatrend. It is time to consider each brand’s prospects individually.

FT : Selling Mayfair: the elite agents bringing Dubai hustle to London’s prime p

Selling Mayfair: the elite agents bringing Dubai hustle to London’s prime properties
Sotheby’s real estate franchise has a new owner who plans to disrupt the business of selling multimillion-pound homes

The party to celebrate the relaunch of the Sotheby’s London real estate franchise did not cost £2.5mn. George Azar would like to be clear about that.

The world of luxury London estate agents has been awash with rumours about Azar, and his ambition to disrupt the business of selling multimillion pound homes to the global super-rich.

The actual cost of the party was just £400,000, Azar told the Financial Times.

Sotheby’s Real Estate was spun off from the auction house — the venue for Azar’s launch party — in 1976.

Unlike rivals Savills and Knight Frank, which operate as a single firm, Sotheby’s Real Estate runs on a franchise system. Azar, owner of the Dubai franchise since 2013, bought the London branch early last year with plans to shake up the established model, mainly by demanding higher fees from clients and giving his agents a much larger share of the revenue they earn.

“He is bringing the whole Dubai model to London,” said one London luxury agent. “He’s going to be ruthless on fees.”

Wild tales circulate about the terms the new-look Sotheby’s has offered to lure top performers. Azar, reclining in a blue suit on a beige-leather sofa in his office above the Mayfair Sotheby’s real estate storefront, says talk of multiyear contracts paying more than £800,000 per year are absurd.

“It’s not true . . . They were throwing figure after figure, thinking these guys come from the Middle East, they are funded by somebody, they are throwing money right, left and centre and they don’t know what they are doing,” he said.

But Azar appears to enjoy how much his arrival has set the tight-knit world of London’s top estate agents abuzz. “I am a very calculated guy. I’m a banker . . . We’re not stupid and we want to succeed.”

Sotheby’s high-profile hires include Claire Reynolds, an 18-year veteran of Savills, Marcus O’Brien, right-hand man to Gary Hersham at the luxury specialist Beauchamp Estates. Becky Fatemi, another leading agent, has merged her agency Rokstone with Sotheby’s.

“People are making up stories about how they were approached,” the London luxury agent said. Not having received an offer to be poached by Azar is now seen as a slight. 

Although London property commands some of the highest prices in the world, its luxury agents take some of the lowest fees.

Around £5.7bn of London properties worth more than £5mn changed hands last year, according to Savills. The most expensive public listings on Sotheby’s books currently include a £75mn 11-bedroom house in Portland Place, and a three-bedroom, 2,700 sq ft flat in Marylebone, listed for around £12mn. Sotheby’s said its agents have sold £500mn worth of properties so far this year, including sales exchanged and under offer.

Fees are opaque. But similar agents in New York commonly charge 6 per cent. In London, selling agents’ fees are typically quoted at 2 per cent, but are often bargained down closer to 1.5 per cent. Fees of 1 per cent are not unknown, and agencies may then have to give a cut of their fee to another agent to introduce a buyer.

Sotheby’s, which generally only deals with properties worth more than £2mn, has set a floor of 2 per cent on fees with ambitions to charge more.

“Since the market was so easy, people were pushing fees down,” said Azar. He emphasises that he does not want to talk any agency down, and acknowledges London prime property is a competitive market. But he adds: “They got it too easy, and they got too lazy. In the old days, you had the big fish eating the small fish. Today you have the fast fish eating the slow fish. We are the fast fish.” 

Key to the reinvention of Sotheby’s is the fees the agents can charge and how the money is split. Azar plans to pay people according to the business they bring in. The agents will be colleagues, but also in competition. 

“They have got a very good team. I hope there is cohesion among the team members,” said Hersham, adding that he’s “looking forward to working with Sotheby’s”.

The challenge to London’s historically dominant agencies is reminiscent of the disruption caused by US law firms that have poached talent from London’s magic circle because top-billing lawyers earn more under the American “eat what you kill” pay arrangements. 

Agencies like Savills and Knight Frank typically do not give their agents a direct cut of sales. Bonuses are discretionary, reflecting the logic that team members across the companies contribute. Tim Hyatt of Knight Frank said the model aims to encourage performance for clients and also a “fulfilling and rewarding career for all of our people”. 

At Sotheby’s, each agent has a bespoke deal. Some are fully employed and others are self-employed consultants. Employees keep 20-40 per cent of the fees they earn, while consultants’ percentage starts at 50 per cent.

Another senior agent likened the new model Sotheby’s to the ultra-competitive agents in hit Netflix show “Selling Orange County”.

“I think he is going to create probably the greatest hornets nest of all time, with all these very senior people competing with each other,” the senior agent said. 

Azar acknowledges the challenge. “It’s like putting sharks in a fish tank . . . I am making sure no one eats each other,” he jokes. 

Fatemi said early rivalry within the team has settled down. “The first month was like: ‘I need this and I need this,’” she said. “That’s where the rumour mill came from.”

Sotheby’s can pay its agents more, Azar said, in part because he has torn up the traditional system of neighbourhood offices, giving his agents geographic freedom and cutting layers of management.  

Fees at Sotheby’s are then split 50-50 between the agent who brings the buyer, and the one who won the listing. “The client gets the benefit of two power brokers working who are incentivised,” Fatemi said. “The majority of clients don’t mind paying.” 

But if the London property market has been booming for prime agents in recent years, it now faces new challenges. Savills data show sales of properties worth more than £5mn were down 13 per cent last year from the year before, as the post-Covid property boom came to an end.

Russian buyers have met intense scepticism and new restrictions in London since the invasion of Ukraine. Many wealthy Russians have turned elsewhere, including Dubai. 

“For me, as long as you’re not sanctioned, I’ll deal with you. I’m not here to tell you who is right and who is wrong,” said Azar, who cut his teeth in the discreet world of Swiss private banking. 

Rivals, naturally, are sceptical about the prospects of success for Sotheby’s new fees model in London.

Other agents are more optimistic about the potential benefits if Azar pulls off his Mayfair-based shake-up. “If Sotheby’s can manage to raise the fees, we’d all be happy. Good luck to them,” said Hersham. 

WWD : Capri Denies a Search for Michael Kors Successor Is Underway

Capri Denies a Search for Michael Kors Successor Is Underway
The fashion group denied a WWD report that a search for a potential successor to Kors at some point in the future was in progress, saying he "is and remains chief creative officer."

Capri Holdings chairman and chief executive officer John Idol on Wednesday firmly denied a WWD report that a search for a successor to Michael Kors is being considered.

In a statement, Idol said, “Michael Kors is and will remain the chief creative officer of his namesake company. His vision is essential to our success. Any information to the contrary is incorrect.”

In a separate statement to Capri staff, obtained by WWD, Idol added, “This morning WWD published an article that suggested we are seeking a successor for Michael Kors. This information is not true and we have issued the below press statement to address and correct any misconceptions the article may have created. Michael continues to lead the creative vision of our company with great enthusiasm.”

The article was focused around the planned retirement of Dries Van Noten and how brands are beginning to think of succession strategies for designers in the longer term rather than immediately replacing them or waiting them to suddenly depart. Van Noten’s company was acquired by Puig in 2018 and at that time he had informed the Spanish group that he would stay for another five years. His last show for the brand he founded in Antwerp will be the men’s spring 2025 collection, which will be shown in Paris in June. The women’s spring 2025 collection will be designed by his studio team.

>>> US After Hours Summary: MU +14.3%, GES +10.5% higher on earnings; FIVE -12.7

After Hours Summary: MU +14.3%, GES +10.5% higher on earnings; FIVE -12.7%, SCS -8.6%, CHWY -3.1% lower on earnings; INDI +7.2% as it invests in AI processor company

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: MU +14.3%, GES +10.5% (also declares special dividend of $2.25/sh), CAAP +1.1%, KBH +0.1%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: INDI +7.2% (makes strategic investment in AI processor co), WDC +4.9% (in sympathy with strong MU earnings), STX +1.7% (in sympathy with strong MU earnings), HRTG +1.6% (authorizes new $10 mln share repurchase program), KKR +0.3% (to acquire majority stake in Avantus), NTNX +0.2% (files patent infringement lawsuit against Tessell), SNPS +0.2% (approves sale process its Software Integrity business; also updates FY24 guidance), GTLB +0.1% (acquires Oxeye), SMG +0.1% (forms distribution partnership with BFG Supply)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: FIVE -12.7%, SCS -8.6%, CHWY -3.1%, WOR -2.3%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: STVN -3.4% (files mixed shelf securities offering; also launches $300 mln share offering), RVTY -2.9% (files complaint against Cloud Software Group; also reaffirms FY24 guidance), AAPL -1.5% (DOJ planning to sue for antitrust violations according to Bloomberg), HLVX -1.4% (files $500 mln mixed shelf securities offering), ARBE -1% (opens an office in Shanghai), CCI -0.5% (enters $750 mln common stock sales agreements), GSK -0.5% (to cap out-of-pocket inhaler costs, according to Reuters)

WWD : Michael Schumacher’s Custom Audemars Piguet and F.P. Journe Watches Up for

Michael Schumacher’s Custom Audemars Piguet and F.P. Journe Watches Up for Auction
They are among the eight timepieces from the Formula 1 legend’s collection to be sold at Christie’s Rare Watches auction on May 13 in Geneva.
Formula One fans, start your engines: eight watches belonging to racing legend Michael Schumacher are about to hit the auction block.

Taking pole position among the timepieces at the upcoming Rare Watches auction at Christie’s in Geneva is the F.P. Journe Vagabondage 1 Model from around 2004, with a striking red dial commemorating his seven world titles.

Housed in a platinum case, the watch contains an 18-karat gold wandering hour movement and features the Ferrari logo as well as Schumacher’s distinctive helmet. It was commissioned as a gift by Jean Todt, at the time general manager of Ferrari’s racing division.

Its low estimate stands at 1 million Swiss francs, Christie’s head of watches Europe and U.S. Rémi Guillemin told WWD, thanks to an already “celebrated and iconic” model from the watchmaker made even more unique by its full customization and provenance.


Michael Schumacher’s F.P. Journe Vagabondage watch.
COURTESY OF CHRISTE’S

Another watch that is sure to get aficionados of fine mechanics hot under the collar is the legendary driver’s bespoke Audemars Piguet Royal Oak chronograph.

The white-gold dial features the Italian automotive manufacturer’s prancing horse emblem on the seconds sub-dial, while the German driver’s helmet is depicted on the 12-hour register and the “1” on the register dial is surrounded by six stars marking his wins. It is also engraved with a dedication on the back.
A more commercial alternative and relatively easily wearable by collectors that “remains extremely strong in terms of identification to the pilot,” it is estimated between 150,000 Swiss francs and 350,000 Swiss francs, according to Guillemin.

Also going under the hammer from Schumacher’s collection are a Rolex “Paul Newman” Daytona, reference 6262. Its provenance from Schumacher’s personal stash makes it another ultimate catch for watch lovers and Formula One fans alike, said the expert.

There will also be a set of five watches from F.P. Journe’s Ruthenium collection.
Guillemin said the sale was “an exceptional moment for watch and F1 enthusiasts alike,” thanking the family of the retired Formula One legend for “their trust in us and their wish to share these masterpieces of horology with other passionate collectors around the globe.”

Schumacher had a three-decade career that made him one of the most successful drivers in motorsport history, beginning with his 1991 debut at the Belgian Grand Prix. Best known for his five consecutive wins with Ferrari between 2000 and 2004, he also held the record for most Grand Prix wins, until surpassed by Lewis Hamilton in 2020.

In addition to his sports career, the German driver helped develop a groundbreaking helmet for racing drivers that was lightweight and could resist being driven over by a tank; donated $10 million to aid efforts after the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake; was a special ambassador to Unesco, and supported campaigns, including one recognizing road deaths as a major global health issue.

Shortly after his 2012 retirement from racing, he suffered severe brain injuries in a skiing accident in 2013 and remains in convalescence. In 2017 Schumacher’s family founded the Keep Fighting Foundation to continue his charity endeavors.

Before their May 13 sale at the Four Seasons Hotel des Bergues in Geneva, Schumacher’s watches will be exhibited in Los Angeles from Friday to Sunday; Hong Kong, Taiwan and Dubai in April, and New York in early May.

WSJ : Apollo Offers $11 Billion for Paramount’s Hollywood Studio

Apollo Offers $11 Billion for Paramount’s Hollywood Studio
Offer comes as Paramount’s directors are weighing merger with Skydance

Private-equity firm Apollo Global Management APO 1.72%increase; green up pointing triangle has made an $11 billion offer to buy Paramount Global’s PARA 11.80%increase; green up pointing triangle film and TV studio, according to people familiar with the situation.

The bid comes as an independent committee of the company’s directors is reviewing another offer from Skydance Media to merge with all of Paramount, which also owns CBS, Nickelodeon and a number of other cable networks.

Paramount’s studio has long been an acquisition target. Netflix was among a number of companies that expressed interest over the past few years in buying the studio, which is behind such movies as “Top Gun: Maverick” and “A Quiet Place,” according to other people familiar with the situation.

Apollo could join with other companies to finance a deal.

But Paramount Global’s controlling shareholder, Shari Redstone, and other board members have resisted selling the studio, which they consider the crown jewel of the company. Redstone, who is open to selling Paramount in its entirety, would have to agree to breaking up the company and allowing a sale of the studio to proceed.

Apollo’s offer is more than the entire market capitalization of Paramount Global, which is currently around $7.7 billion. While the studio business is attractive, given its vast library and the demand for fresh programming in the streaming industry, Paramount’s TV networks are declining as the cable business contracts.

Bloomberg and Axios earlier reported on Apollo’s interest in Paramount.

Meanwhile, Skydance Media, the production company run by David Ellison, has made an offer to buy Paramount parent National Amusements and merge Skydance into Paramount.

Redstone controls National Amusements, which owns almost 80% of the voting shares of Paramount.

The details of that offer couldn’t be learned. Ellison is the son of billionaire Larry Ellison, the co-founder of Oracle, who is expected to help fund any deal.

In evaluating the offers, Paramount’s directors have to determine whether the deal would be good for all shareholders, not just its controlling shareholder, National Amusements.

It has been months since news of the Skydance interest in National Amusements first surfaced late last year. Following Wednesday’s news of the Apollo bid, Paramount’s stock closed up 12% at $12.51 a share. Before Wednesday’s trading, the stock was down about 20% year to date.

Paramount has also had discussions with Warner Bros. Discovery about a merger and has discussed a streaming partnership or joint venture with Comcast, The Wall Street Journal reported last month.

The daughter of the late media mogul Sumner Redstone, Shari Redstone reunited the family’s media empire by merging Viacom and CBS in 2019, later renaming the resulting company Paramount Global.

WSJ : Reddit Prices IPO at Top of Range

Reddit Prices IPO at Top of Range
At $34 a share, the social-media company would be worth around $6.4 billion

Reddit priced its initial public offering at the high end of its targeted range, a sign that investor enthusiasm could be returning for new issues.

Reddit, set to debut Thursday under the ticker “RDDT,” priced its shares at $34 a piece Wednesday, people familiar with the matter said. That would give the social-media company a valuation of around $6.4 billion. That is at the top of where Reddit expected to be valued in the offering, but below the $10 billion valuation it reached in 2021.

The warm reception for Reddit and technology company Astera Labs ALAB 72.31%increase; green up pointing triangle, which had a successful IPO Wednesday, suggest the beleaguered IPO market of the past two-plus years could be turning a corner.

Astera’s shares closed up more than 70%. Astera—which makes semiconductor-based connectivity solutions that companies use to build cloud and artificial intelligence infrastructures—had priced its IPO on Tuesday two dollars above its targeted price range.

Reddit placed a big chunk of its IPO in the hands of its most prolific users and also reserved a portion for individual investors, an unusual move that could make the stock more volatile. The company set a relatively conservative price range for the offering, in part because it was cognizant that its loyal users would be buying the stock at the IPO price, people familiar with the matter said.

Many of Reddit’s users are bearish on the stock’s prospects, though it remains to be seen how much those outspoken users could influence the stock’s price, if at all.

Redditors on the company’s infamous WallStreetBets message board and other subreddits, communities within Reddit focused on specific topics, have posted in recent weeks that they plan to avoid buying Reddit’s stock and may even bet against it by way of shorting the company.

Reddit is set to trade on the New York Stock Exchange. While a strong pricing doesn’t guarantee Reddit’s stock will trade well, it is typically an encouraging sign.