FT : Swiss find Lebanon’s biggest bank guilty of serious money laundering breach

Swiss find Lebanon’s biggest bank guilty of serious money laundering breaches
Finma uncovers millions of francs in unexplained payments by Banque Audi to senior political figures

Swiss authorities have censured Lebanon’s largest bank for serious money laundering violations, after uncovering millions of francs in unexplained payments to senior political figures routed through the wealthy alpine country.

The investigation into Bank Audi by Finma, Switzerland’s market regulator, was triggered by a corruption probe into Riad Salameh, the former longtime governor of Lebanon’s central bank, according to people familiar with the matter.

Salameh, who has denied all allegations of misconduct, was charged by prosecutors in Beirut in 2022 with embezzling more than $330mn in public funds.

He is also under criminal investigation in Switzerland and seven other jurisdictions, probing allegations of financial crimes. These include France and Germany, which have issued warrants for his arrest. He stepped down from his post last summer.

In a statement on Monday, Finma said it had ordered Banque Audi — the Swiss subsidiary of Bank Audi — to pay back SFr4mn in “illegally generated” profits relating to suspicious transactions and increase its capital buffer by SFr19mn.

Finma — which does not have the statutory power to issue fines — said Banque Audi was also banned into entering into new relationships with “politically exposed persons” or other high-risk corporate clients for the next two years.

The bank has agreed to internal reforms, the regulator said. The staff who approved the transactions have left Switzerland.

Nevertheless “[Banque Audi] has decided to continue certain high-risk client relationships,” Finma noted.

Bank Audi did not respond to a request for comment.

Finma opened its probe in 2021, as part of a broad investigation into 12 Lebanese lenders with Swiss subsidiaries.

An on-site inspection of Banque Audi’s premises in Geneva that year revealed “serious shortcomings in the prevention of money laundering”, Finma said.

The bank was also found to have withheld internal audit findings from the watchdog which had clearly flagged the money-laundering concerns. The bank failed on multiple occasions to report suspicious transactions to Switzerland’s official anti-money laundering body.

In an anonymised example, Finma cited an instance where Banque Audi had accepted a large payment from a Lebanese “politically-exposed person” — known as a PEP in banking terminology — to a Swiss account held by a high-ranking Lebanese official.

The bank did not obtain an adequate explanation of what the payment was for, as money-laundering regulations require.

Finma said there were numerous other such examples relating to sums paid to and by other politically exposed individuals, who had been the subject of press articles about corruption and graft. The bank made no attempts to inquire about the purpose of large transfers made to and from Swiss accounts in their names, Finma said.

Bank Audi has a history of ties to Lebanon’s political elite.

Its founder, Raymond Audi, served as a government minister while maintaining his position as bank chair. Its current board of directors and major shareholders include several PEPs, as well as certain members of the ruling families of the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.

Lebanon is still mired in one of the worst economic crises of its modern history.

The crisis has forced three-quarters of the population into poverty, while the Lebanese currency has lost more than 95 per cent of its value against the US dollar since the country went into economic meltdown in October 2019 after decades of state-sponsored corruption and financial mismanagement by successive governments.  

TechCrunch : Fisker loses potential Nissan deal, putting rescue funds at risk

Fisker loses potential Nissan deal, putting rescue funds at risk

The negotiations between Fisker and a large automaker — reported to be Nissan — over a potential investment and collaboration have been terminated, a development that puts a separate near-term rescue funding effort in danger.

Fisker revealed in a Monday morning regulatory filing that the automaker terminated the negotiations March 22. It did not explain why. But the company had to keep the negotiations going as part of one of the closing conditions for a potential $150 million convertible note announced last week. Fisker said in the filing that it will ask the unnamed investor to waive the closing condition.

The startup’s stock plunged 28% after the stock market opened, halting trading.

It’s the latest in a series of ominous signs for the imperiled EV startup. Fisker has struggled to sell its Ocean SUV in the early going, underperforming its own internal sales goals, as TechCrunch reported in January, and forcing a pivot away from a direct sales model. Some of the cars that have been delivered have been affected by a number of quality problems — ones that Fisker has, at times, struggled to solve, according to internal documents.

In February, Fisker laid of 15% of its staff (around 200 people) and last week reported having just $121 million in the bank. The company has paused production and warned investors it would not survive year without a fresh infusion of cash. Fisker had held talks with other automakers, including Mazda, but only Nissan recently remained at the table.

Fisker said Monday morning that it is evaluating other “strategic alternatives” to the potential tie-up with Nissan, including “in or out of court restructurings, capital markets transactions (subject to market conditions), repurchases, redemptions, exchanges or other refinancings of its existing debt, the potential issuance of equity securities, the potential sale of assets and businesses and/or other strategic transactions and/or other measures.”

FT : Novo Nordisk in €1bn deal for RNA-based heart disease therapies

Novo Nordisk in €1bn deal for RNA-based heart disease therapies
Danish group seeks to branch out from diabetes and weight loss drugs with Cardior acquisition

Novo Nordisk has struck a €1bn deal for a German biotech developing ribonucleic acid-based therapies to treat heart disease, as the Danish group invests the windfall from its best-selling diabetes and weight loss drugs.

The acquisition of Cardior Pharmaceuticals will give Novo Nordisk a treatment for heart failure in mid-stage trials that targets the root causes of heart disease.

Novo Nordisk, the maker of blockbuster diabetes and weight loss drugs Ozempic and Wegovy, said the transaction was an “important step” in its strategy to “establish a presence in cardiovascular disease”.

Sales of its diabetes and obesity drugs have sent Novo Nordisk’s market capitalisation soaring but the company has also set a goal of diversifying, including into the treatment of cardiovascular diseases.

To do this, the company has launched trials of its weight-loss treatments to show that they can also tackle diseases linked to obesity. Trial results published in November showed that Wegovy led to an 18 per cent decline in risk of death for patients with obesity and cardiovascular disease.

It also has drugs in late stage phase 3 trials for cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease and high blood pressure, and it is using acquisitions to boost its expertise in the area. Chief executive Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen told the Financial Times this month that it was assessing deals for biotech companies with mid-stage drugs.

Martin Holst Lange, head of development at Novo Nordisk, said that Cardior’s drug had the “potential to become a first-in-class therapy designed to halt or partially reverse the course of disease for people living with heart failure”.

The acquisition also gives Novo Nordisk more expertise in RNA-based therapies, a growing field in pharmaceuticals. Novo Nordisk purchased Dicerna Pharmaceuticals, a company focused in RNA-based therapeutics, for $3.3bn in 2021.

Biotech companies have in recent years explored how making changes to the RNA — a molecule present in all living cells that has a similar structure to DNA — could lead to new drugs.

In general, RNA makes proteins by using amino acids as code. Some RNA does not code for proteins and Cardior’s drugs target these molecules, which are important in regulating cell activity but can lead to diseases if they stop working normally.

Cardior’s drug has shown improvements in patients with heart failure compared with a placebo, according to early trials. Novo Nordisk plans to start a second mid-stage trial of the Cardior drug to assess its effectiveness in patients with cardiac hypertrophy, where the walls of the heart muscle become thick and inhibit blood pumping.

“We aim to not just alleviate disease symptoms, but to address the root causes of heart failure and restore the normal functioning of the heart,” said Thomas Thum, Cardior’s co-founder.

FT : Some wild speculation about Ukrenergo bond prices

Some wild speculation about Ukrenergo bond prices
Premium puzzles

Mark Weidemaier, Ugo Panizza and Mitu Gulati are faculty at the University of North Carolina (law), the University of Virginia (law) and the Geneva Institute (international economics), respectively.

About a month ago there was an announcement that a bondholder group had formed for the Ukrainian state-owned power company, Ukrenergo. The bond was guaranteed by the Ukrainian sovereign, and the core of the announcement was this (Alphaville’s emphasis below):

The Group wishes to make clear from the outset that, for the Group to support any restructuring or liability management transaction in relation to the Notes, such restructuring or transaction must deal with the Company’s indebtedness on a standalone basis and not as part of any contemplated restructuring of Ukraine’s sovereign indebtedness.

That’s well and good — of course, the holders of every bond want special treatment. But here’s the bit that got us and others interested. Upon the announcement, the market price of these bonds shot up roughly 30 per cent over the sovereign’s own bonds. That premium has since gone down, but the Ukrenergo still trades at about a 15 per cent premium over a comparable sovereign bond.

What the hell? What information was in the announcement that got the market so excited? We see no obvious explanation so, as we enjoy doing from time to time, we speculate.

First, some background. In July 2022, a few months after the onset of war with Russia, maturities for this bond and others issued by Ukraine were consensually extended until November 2024. Perhaps the hope was that the war would be over by late 2024. Going by the relative market prices of the Ukrenergo and Ukrainian sovereign bonds, everyone seems to have assumed at the time that this bond would be restructured on the same terms as other Ukrainian sovereign credits in any future postwar debt workout.

One might ask why the Ukrenergo bond with a sovereign guarantee would be treated the same as Ukrainian sovereign bonds. It is backed by two entities (the company and the sovereign) whereas vanilla sovereign bonds are backed by only the sovereign. Unless the company is just a bucket of bolts, its creditors should get more in a restructuring.

A possible answer is that the Ukrenergo bond has an “aggregated” collective action clause (CAC), which allows key terms like payment obligations to be modified in an aggregated vote of all holders of bonds with similar CACs. The threshold for such a modification is 75 per cent. At $825mn the Ukrenergo bond is relatively small — dwarfed by $20bn worth of Ukrainian bonds with aggregated CACs. The latter group can stick Ukrenergo bondholders with whatever treatment they accept for themselves. And that will be dictated by estimations by the IMF and others about how much postwar debt relief Ukraine will need.

In the midst of all this, why would this little Ukrenergo bond expect special treatment? Some wild speculations follow.

Sneaky-good contract terms?
Since we study contract provisions, our first assumption tends to be that a lawyer for creditors found an advantage in the bond documents. Or at least, some wonky language that might be plausibly argued to suggest the guarantee is stronger than realised. But we struggle to find anything in the Ukrenergo bond that offers bondholders special protection.

The Ukrenergo bond can be aggregated with all the others as long as its CAC has substantially the same terms as the others. And as best we can tell it is almost identical, except for referring to the guarantee. So it looks like these investors can be forced to vote along with the much larger group of Ukrainian sovereign bondholders.

And while the guaranteed bond has some confusing language — such as saying that the sovereign guarantor’s obligations will not be affected by a modification to the Ukrenergo bond — the sovereign is only on the hook for “all amounts payable by the issuer.” So, if those amounts are reduced via the CAC, so is the amount the sovereign must pay.

Strip the guarantee?
Could it be possible that bondholders want to get rid of the guarantee — perhaps believing that this will take them outside the umbrella of sovereign obligations that will have to be restructured?

Ukrenergo is hardly a thriving company. But perhaps it, like some other Ukrainian companies, benefits from some of the subsidies provided by European governments and the US, which understand the importance of keeping the lights on in Ukraine.

And perhaps holders of the Ukrenergo bond think the sovereign will allow them to escape the restructuring if they let it off the hook on the guarantee. It would improve the sovereign’s balance sheet a bit to remove the guarantee obligation. 

But really? Is that enough for the sovereign to let these bonds escape?

And what about those railway bonds?
As an aside, we note that bond prices for Ukraine’s state-owned railways also trade at a hefty premium over the sovereign’s bonds. As with the sovereign bonds, payments on these bonds were also postponed for two years in late 2022. 

Are the railways a good enough company to justify the pricing premium over Ukraine’s sovereign bonds? Have these state-owned companies somehow become profit machines during the war? Or is this pricing weirdness a function of bondholders hoping to get paid out of subsidies from the Europeans and Americans? (here and here)

If we are right in our wild speculations that these companies look good because they benefit from war subsidies, surely the subsidy providers will not be pleased to see their money passed on to holders of the Ukrenergo bonds. (Since we enjoy speculation, we picture the bondholder premia resulting from grabbing a share of the war subsidies being used to build a new wing on to someone’s mansion in the Hamptons.)

And if it will piss off the donors, can Ukraine really intend to play along? It needs every penny for defence and, later, reconstruction. There is something black in the lentils, as Mitu’s mom would say. No other moms could be reached for comment.

>>> US Research Calls I

Research Calls
  • Upgrades:
    • Avis Budget (CAR) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Northcoast; tgt $155
    • Cincinnati Fincl (CINF) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets; tgt raised to $135
    • Foot Locker (FL) upgraded to Outperform from In-line at Evercore ISI; tgt raised to $32
    • GoodRx (GDRX) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt raised to $10
    • HUYA (HUYA) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt $5.80
    • Laboratory Corp (LH) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus; tgt $250
    • Masimo (MASI) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt raised to $160
    • Petrobras (PBR) upgraded to Buy from Hold at HSBC Securities; tgt $18
    • Tempur Sealy Int'l (TPX) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Loop Capital; tgt raised to $75
    • Walt Disney (DIS) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays; tgt raised to $135
  • Downgrades:
    • BigCommerce (BIGC) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $7.50
    • BWX Technologies (BWXT) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Truist; tgt lowered to $95
    • Canadian Pacific (CP) downgraded to Sector Perform from Sector Outperform at Scotiabank
    • Curtiss-Wright (CW) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Truist; tgt lowered to $240
    • Dave & Buster's (PLAY) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Raymond James
    • Financial Inst. (FISI) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Sandler; tgt lowered to $19
    • Kinder Morgan (KMI) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Truist; tgt lowered to $20
    • McDonald's (MCD) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus
    • NIO (NIO) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Mizuho; tgt $5.50
    • Rivian Automotive (RIVN) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Mizuho; tgt $12
    • Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Strong Buy at Raymond James
    • Societe Generale (SCGLY) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley
    • Telus (TU) downgraded to Sector Perform from Sector Outperform at Scotiabank
    • Tesla (TSLA) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Mizuho; tgt $195
  • Others:
    • Bank of America (BAC) initiated with an Accumulate at Phillip Securities
    • CS Disco (LAW) resumed with a Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt $9
    • Healthpeak Properties (DOC) resumed with an Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt $19
    • JPMorgan Chase (JPM) initiated with a Buy at Phillip Securities
    • Kinetik (KNTK) initiated with an Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $40
    • Sagimet Biosciences (SGMT) initiated with an Outperform at Leerink Partners; tgt $26
    • Super Micro Computer (SMCI) initiated with an Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt $1150
    • Wells Fargo (WFC) initiated with an Accumulate at Phillip Securities

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
News:
  • BTAI -6% (announces $25 million registered direct offering)
  • NUVB -3.5% (Nuvation Bio and AnHeart Therapeutics Ltd. have entered into a definitive agreement for Nuvation Bio to acquire AnHeart in an all-stock transaction)
  • BYSI -2.2% (Announces First Patient Dosed with Pembrolizumab, Plinabulin Plus Etoposide/Platinum in a Phase 2 Investigator-initiated Study of First-Line Extensive-Stage Small-Cell Lung Cancer)
  • APLT -1.8% (files for 14,285,714 shares of common stock by selling shareholders)
  • UUUU -1.8% (files mixed securities shelf offering)
  • CC -1.4% (names Denise Dignam as CEO, she had been interim CEO; Matthew Abbott will remain as Interim CFO as co searches for permanent CFO)
  • REGN -1.3% (FDA has issued Complete Response Letters for the Biologics License Application for odronextamab in relapsed/refractory follicular lymphoma and in R/R diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, each after two or more lines of systemic therapy)
Analyst comments:
  • BIGC -5.5% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA Securities)
  • SMG -1.8% (downgraded to Mkt Perform from Strong Buy at Raymond James)
  • PLAY -1.6% (downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Raymond James)
  • RIVN -1.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Mizuho)
  • TSLA -1.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Mizuho)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
News:
  • NKTX +12.7% (prices $240 mln offering consisting of common stock and warrants)
  • ATXS +12.4% (initial proof-of-concept results from the ALPHA-STAR Phase 1b/2 clinical trial evaluating STAR-0215)
  • MASI +12.1% (authorizes management to evaluate a proposed separation of its consumer business; reaffirms Q1 an FY24 guidance; Politan confirmed it nominates two independent candidates for Masimo Board)
  • MBRX +10.4% (Announces Positive Interim Data in Annamycin MB-106 Phase 1B/2 AML Trial)
  • BDSX +7.2% (entered into a new master collaborative research agreement (MCRA) with Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSK) under which the teams will collaborate on a development plan for diagnostic tests aimed at improving the treatment of cancer)
  • AXSM +6.5% (announces AXS-12 achieves primary endpoint in the symphony Phase 3 trial in narcolepsy)
  • DWAC +6% (stockholders confirmed approval the proposed merger with Trump Media & Technology Group Corp)
  • ACET +2.3% (enters into an Open Market Sales Agreement to sell shares its common stock)
  • CNXC +2.2% (files for 13,166,053 share common stock offering by selling shareholders)
  • UTHR +2.1% (announces $1 billion accelerated share repurchase program)
  • BITF +1.3% (announces CEO transition; reiterates 2024 YE guidance of 21 EH/s and 21 w/TH)
  • CCO +1.2% (announces Clear Channel International B.V.'s new term loan facility and concurrent redemption of existing secured notes)
  • DIS +1.2% (Blackwells Capital believes Nelson Peltz is Not the Change Disney's Board Needs; also upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays)
Analyst comments:
  • GDRX +6.1% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo)
  • FL +3.3% (upgraded to Outperform from In-line at Evercore ISI)
  • TPX +2.1% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Loop Capital)
  • CAR +1.8% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Northcoast)
  • HUYA +1.1% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities)

FT : Weight-loss drugs will not be the only blockbusters against this silent kil

Weight-loss drugs will not be the only blockbusters against this silent killer
Madrigal is the first to win approval for a treatment for a liver disease that affects one in 20

It is an ugly ailment with an ugly name. But after years of trying, the pharmaceuticals industry is getting to grips with the multibillion-dollar problem of fatty liver disease.  

This month Pennsylvania-based biotech Madrigal became the first to win approval for a treatment for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH). The breakthrough is badly needed. This liver disease already affects one in 20 of the world’s adults and its prevalence is rising with obesity.  

Madrigal will make the most of its head start. It is now raising $600mn to launch its pioneering drug Rezdiffra in the US. Madrigal’s market value is about $5.1bn. But Bloomberg data for analysts’ 12-month price targets would lift that by more than a third. 


That can be justified. Assume that the drug, which is set to sell for $47,400 a year, makes $4.5bn of sales in 2030. Then apply the 2.7 times 2030 EV-to-sales multiple of a group of similar biotechs listed by Visible Alpha. Discounted and adjusted for cash, that implies a Madrigal market capitalisation of about $7bn.

Yet even after it won the green light from US regulators, Madrigal’s shares are a tenth lower than they were last April. That reflects the growing excitement over the potentially wide-ranging benefits of obesity treatments, which would reduce the need for dedicated drugs. About one in five of the 105 obesity treatments being developed are also being tested for MASH, according to the Stat obesity drug tracker. 

The debate over the role of obesity drugs has not yet been settled. In February’s mid-stage trials, Eli Lilly’s weight loss drug tirzepatide showed promise against MASH. Impressive results also emerged for German pharma group Boehringer Ingelheim and Zealand Pharma’s survodutide.  

But MASH (which confusingly is also known as Nash or non-alcoholic steatohepatitis) is a complex disease. Often asymptomatic in its early stages, it is called a silent killer. A build-up of fatty molecules in the liver can lead to inflammation, the accumulation of scar tissues — a process called fibrosis — and potentially liver failure.

MASH has been a hard nut to crack. A phase II trial for Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide was effective at resolving inflammation but did not improve fibrosis. It is possible it requires longer treatment time. Investors are waiting for phase 3 trial results to be released later this year.

Some drugs might be effective in the early, but not the late stages of the disease. As with cancer, MASH may require combinations of drugs tailored to different patient’s needs. Despite the frenzy over weight-loss medications, those drugs shouldn’t squeeze out alternatives for tackling this nasty disease.