>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 4th of March 2026

>>> Up
* AMG Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 42 euros
* Clas Ohlson Raised to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 360 kronor
* Danone Raised to Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT 83 euros
* Dow Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $38
* Emeis Raised to Reduce at AlphaValue/Baader
* Kion Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT 56 euros
* LyondellBasell Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $73
* Nexans Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 157 euros

>>> Down
* Beiersdorf Cut to Hold at DZ Bank; PT 93 euros
* BW LPG Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 191 kroner
* BW LPG Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT 185 kroner
* Dassault Systemes Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 20 euros
* Eezy Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 60 euro cents
* Equinor Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 300 kroner
* Gitlab Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $28
* Kuehne + Nagel Cut to Reduce at HSBC; PT 160 Swiss francs
* On Holding PT Cut to $55 from $65 at Truist Secs
* PhotoCure Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 72 kroner
* Segro Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT 840 pence
* Syensqo Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT 54 euros
* Thales Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 275 euros

>>> Initiation
* Ashtead Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT 6,030 pence

>>> Call
* EuroAPI Outlook Implies 29% Consensus Hit to Ebitda: JPMorgan
* European Banks May Remain Under Pressure in Short Term, MS Says
* Kion Downside Risks Now More Limited, Jefferies Upgrades to Hold
* Harbour Energy, Lion, IG Set to Join FTSE 100: Panmure Liberum
* Thales Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan on Cyber and Digital Weakness

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • NKT (NKT TH) +3%
    • NKT Signs €2.2b Contract for UK’s Eastern Green Link 3 Project
  • Kion (KGX TH) +2.6%
    • Kion Downside Risks Now More Limited, Jefferies Upgrades to Hold
  • Nokia (NOA3 TH) +2.1%
  • Accor (ACR TH) +1.5%
  • ArcelorMittal (ARRD TH) +1.4%
  • Repsol (REP TH) +1.1%
    • Aston Martin Puts, Repsol Late Crosses: EMEA Options Snapshot
  • Holcim (HLBN TH) +1%
  • Beiersdorf (BEI TH) +1%
  • Voestalpine (VAS TH) -1.3%
  • Rational (RAA TH) -1.4%
  • Lotus Bakeries (7LB TH) -1.4%
  • Thales (CSF TH) -1.4%
    • Thales Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan on Cyber and Digital Weakness
  • Var Energi (J4V TH) -1.7%
  • Galp (GZ5 TH) -1.7%
  • HSBC (HBC1 TH) -1.8%
  • Adidas (ADS TH) -1.8%
    • *ADIDAS SEES 2026 OPER PROFIT ABOUT EU2.3B, EST. EU2.69B
  • Equinor (DNQ TH) -1.8%
    • Equinor Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 300 kroner
  • Bilfinger (GBF TH) -3%
    • Thomas Schulz of Bilfinger SE on Bloomberg US TV

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Beiersdorf (BEI TH) +1.3%
MDAX:
  • Evonik (EVK TH) +2.9%
    • Evonik FY Dividend per Share Misses Estimates
  • Kion (KGX TH) +2.8%
    • Kion Downside Risks Now More Limited, Jefferies Upgrades to Hold
  • Jungheinrich (JUN3 TH) +1.7%
  • Bilfinger (GBF TH) -3.1%
    • Bilfinger Sees 2026 Sales EU5.4B to EU5.9B, Est. EU5.72B
  • Redcare Pharmacy NV (RDC TH) -5.4%
    • Redcare Pharmacy NV FY Adj. Ebitda EU57.4M Vs. EU33.3M Y/y (1)
SDAX:
  • Grand City Properties (GYC TH) +2.3%
    • Grand City Properties FY FFO I EU188M Vs. EU188M Y/y
  • Sixt (SIX2 TH) +2.1%
  • Mutares (MUX TH) +1.9%
  • Norma (NOEJ TH) +1.6%
  • Deutsche PBB (PBB TH) +1.4%
  • ProSieben (PSM TH) -1.1%
  • HelloFresh (HFG TH) -1.3%
  • Jenoptik (JEN TH) -1.4%
  • Patrizia (PAT TH) -2.4%

WSJ : DraftKings Is Using Its Sports-Betting Playbook to Win Prediction Markets

DraftKings Is Using Its Sports-Betting Playbook to Win Prediction Markets Race
The company will integrate its prediction markets platform into its core app

  • DraftKings will integrate its prediction markets platform into its core app, allowing access in all 50 states and aiming to lead the industry.
  • The new app, “DraftKings Sports & Casino,” will offer prediction markets, which are not legally classified as gambling.
  • Chief Executive Jason Robins estimates prediction markets represent a $10 billion revenue opportunity, aiming to overtake Kalshi as the leader.

DraftKings’s strategy to become the leader in prediction markets is to do exactly what it did to dominate the online sports betting industry.

The company is gearing up to operate in all 50 states, something that seemed like a long way off just 12 months ago, due to varying regulations. As federal policymakers grapple with how to regulate predictions markets, DraftKings is going all-in on its predictions product and aims to overtake industry leader Kalshi.

Its first step is to make the look and feel of the platform a mirror of its sports-betting operations.

“We know the minds of a fan who wants to get in on the action,” DraftKings’ head of Predictions, Jeanine Hightower-Sellitto, said. “That’s how we’re building Predictions. It will feel like DraftKings.”

DraftKings tapped into its existing infrastructure and user base from daily fantasy sports to secure a place for itself in the online gaming industry, and compete with FanDuel to be the biggest online sports betting operator. It now plans to use that same successful playbook for it expands into prediction markets.

The Boston-based company said Monday it will integrate its prediction markets platform, which it launched in December, into its core app. The new app will be called DraftKings Sports & Casino, removing the word “sportsbook” to reflect the fact that prediction markets aren’t legally classified as gambling.

“We will now have a sports product everywhere for customers across the country,” Chief Executive Jason Robins said in an interview.

In 17 states where DraftKings isn’t a licensed betting operator, users will only be able to access its predictions product on the app. The product will look similar to the sports-betting platform, but players will put money on outcomes of events, rather than betting against a sportsbook. That way they can place money, or “trade,” on whether they think a team will win or a player will score a certain number of points.

The goal is to follow the same strategy DraftKings used to become one of the top U.S. sports-betting platforms. Right now, sporting events are the most popular category to trade in prediction markets.

Robins said he is primarily focused on building out predictions markets for sports events, rather than political or cultural events. He estimates prediction markets may represent a $10 billion revenue opportunity for the company.

Until now, betting companies like DraftKings had to fight on a state-by-state basis to gain operating licenses. DraftKings’s latest move represents a significant shortcut to accessing potentially lucrative states like California, Florida and Texas. Its most recent launch in Missouri took more than a year to roll out after the state approved sports gambling in November 2024.

Because prediction markets aren’t subject to state taxes, they are expected to have margins that are 10 to 30 percentage points higher than traditional sports betting, DraftKings said. Later this year, the company also plans to debut “combos,” which is the equivalent of betting parlay. Parlays wrap multiple bets into one and are especially profitable for DraftKings because they tend to favor the sportsbook.

The biggest challenges will be building out the product, developing its technology and ramping up marketing in new markets, Robins said. “It’s just getting it done, just a matter of time,” he said.

He expects the fully integrated app will be ready before the new NFL season begins later this year, with combos launching some time in the second quarter, he added.

The potential spoils from prediction markets haven’t done much to help DraftKings. In February, the company’s financial outlook for 2026 came in below Wall Street estimates. Robins told investors at the time that he wasn’t including any potential revenue from prediction markets in that guidance.

Investors have gotten impatient about DraftKings’s prediction markets timeline. Shares lost about 10% of their value in 2025 as the company delayed entering the industry for fear of ruining relationships with state regulators.

The main concern now is that DraftKings is losing customers to competitors such as Kalshi, a private company that is considered the current leader in prediction markets. Kalshi was an early mover in the industry, gaining popularity around the 2024 presidential election.

Robins said that once prediction markets are integrated into DraftKings’ core app, the company will be on its way to having the best product on the market.

“We’re probably less than a year behind Kalshi and we’re ahead of everybody else at this point,” Robins said.

WSJ : China PMIs Send Mixed Signals as Markets Watch for Stimulus

China PMIs Send Mixed Signals as Markets Watch for Stimulus
Nonmanufacturing PMI, which covers both service and construction activity, edged up to 49.5 in February

  • China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to 49.0 in February, signaling continued economic weakness.
  • The February manufacturing PMI reading was below January’s 49.3 and missed economists’ 49.3 forecast.
  • China’s nonmanufacturing PMI edged up to 49.5 in February from 49.4, with service activity rising due to the Lunar New Year.

Gauges of China’s manufacturing and services activity sent mixed signals about the economy, showing pockets of weakness alongside improvement as markets wait for the country’s leaders to set growth targets for the year ahead.

The latest round of purchasing managers surveys come as the world’s second-largest economy faces a fresh threat to growth from the widening conflict in the Middle East. With domestic issues like the property sector slump persisting, more evidence of a slowdown could add to calls fro Beijing to roll out more stimulus this year.

According to an official gauge, China’s manufacturing downturn deepened last month, weighed down by the effect of week-long holiday.

The headline PMI number fell to 49.0 in February, missing Wall Street Journal-compiled consensus views and marking a second straight month below the 50 threshold separating contraction from expansion.

China’s nonmanufacturing PMI, which covers both service and construction activity, showed a slight improvement but also remained in contractionary territory. The gauge edged up to 49.5 in February from 49.4 in January, the National Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday.

The subindex tracking service activity rose thanks to a boost from the Lunar New Year holiday, while the construction subindex declined as workers returned home to celebrate with their families.

If economic activity slows further in the coming months, the Chinese government could boost investment moderately to mitigate the pressure on the economy, said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.

“The war in the Middle East will likely weigh on the global economy, including China, at least in March,” he said.

Private gauges also released on Wednesday were more upbeat than their official counterparts. The RatingDog surveys compiled by S&P Global focus more on China’s smaller, private companies, while the official PMIs track large, state-owned entities.

The RatingDog manufacturing PMI popped in February, indicating the strongest improvement in sector conditions in over five years.

Increases in new orders and output pushed the headline figure to 52.1 from 50.3, indicating a clear expansionary trend, said Yao Yu, RatingDog’s founder.

Business confidence strengthened, with firms citing stronger market demand and new production lines, he said.

The RatingDog survey also showed an uptick in service sector activity last month, signaling the fastest pace of expansion since May 2023.

“However, external uncertainties and the current softness in employment may constrain the sustainability of this improvement to some extent,” said Yu.

For Capital Economics, the overall takeaway is of an improvement in economic momentum.

The research firm’s average of both manufacturing gauges shows a rise from 49.8 to a five-month high of 50.5. Encouragingly, services sectors gathered pace too, it said.

“The recent decline in U.S. tariffs should provide a modest tailwind to exports and manufacturing activity over the coming months,” said Zichun Huang, China economist at CE.

That said, unless policymakers unveil much stronger-than-expected stimulus at the National People’s Congress, “we doubt growth will be stronger this year than last,” she added.

At the NPC, officials will roll out a five-year economic blueprint of China’s policy priorities through 2030.

FT : Maritime and ports businesses push for global shipping climate deal

Maritime and ports businesses push for global shipping climate deal
Almost 90 international groups back ‘certainty’ on carbon levy opposed by US

Maritime groups, ship owners, port operators and logistics companies are among almost 90 international businesses urging governments to push ahead on a global shipping emissions deal, which the US has worked to derail.

The Port of Antwerp-Bruges, as well as ports in Germany and Denmark, logistics provider Kuehne+Nagel and Volkswagen-owned engine and turbine maker Everllence are among those urging countries to adopt a UN framework to “give the industry the certainty it requires”.

The framework first agreed last year was a “hard-fought compromise”, which had earned “overwhelming industry support”, they wrote in an open letter ahead of what are expected to be fraught International Maritime Organization talks next month.

It would provide a “clear and credible pathway for the decarbonisation of international shipping”.

The shipping industry delivers about 80 per cent of trade and contributes an estimated 3 per cent to the emissions behind climate change.

The US is accused of using “bully boy tactics” to tank the UN-based net zero framework, which had been provisionally agreed last April and would have resulted in a carbon emissions levy on shipping.

Under subsequent US intimidation, including personal threats, supporters from African and small Pacific and Caribbean island countries dropped their backing at the October IMO meetings.

Despite positioning itself as a climate leader, Panama has now joined co-sponsors Liberia and Argentina in proposing a “revised” approach that would in effect ditch the carbon levy. 

Panama and Liberia along with the Marshall Islands are the world’s largest “flag states” — where ships are registered — controlling almost half of global merchant vessel tonnage. This makes their support for any deal crucial.

Against the proposed “revision” is a submission from a group of seven Pacific Island countries: “We do not have time to renegotiate the fundamental architecture of the Net Zero Framework,” they wrote in a document seen by the FT.

They warned that attempting to “extract or alter” core components of the framework “will not improve the likelihood of the group reaching agreement; it will cause the entire structure to collapse”.

The businesses backing a levy, which would help to promote investment in lowering carbon emissions, said “confusion and uncertainty resulting from delay in the adoption of the framework risks undermining international investment and growth”.

Maarten Wetselaar, chief executive of Spain’s $12bn energy group Moeve, said adoption of the framework would “send a powerful signal to producers and investors that Europe is committed to a global, level‑playing‑field transition, unlocking the clean fuel volumes shipping urgently needs”.

Uwe Lauber, chief executive of the $10bn engineer Everllence, said the negotiations had proved “a harsh setback for the entire industry”.

“Everybody is aware that net zero is only achievable through synthetic fuels,” he said, “But without the Net Zero Framework in place the business case for the necessary investments into e-fuels and e-fuel production is a lot weaker. The IMO must find the strength to vote for the NZF this year.”

One IMO diplomat said the framework had become “taboo for now”, but the April talks might result in “a better understanding of a new confusion”.

Under the plans agreed a year ago, the scheme would impose a carbon price on emissions for ships larger than 5,000 tons and was expected to generate revenues of up to $15bn per year from 2030. 

The IMO said it was making efforts to find consensus at the talks, which would allow member states to “continue discussing outstanding concerns, listen to everyone and consider the next steps”.

>>> US After Hours Summary: ROST +5.8%, BOX +3.7% higher on earnings; MRNA +9.4%

After Hours Summary: ROST +5.8%, BOX +3.7% higher on earnings; MRNA +9.4% on settlement agreement; WBTN -13.6%, STAA -11.2%, GTLB -8.3%, CRWD -0.9% lower on earnings

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: SWIM +18.8% (also acquries Freedom Pools), EOLS +18.6%, NPCE +10.9%, ACEL +10.2%, ROST +5.8% (also authorizes new $2.55 bln share buyback program and increases dividend), BGS +5.3%, CRCT +4.7%, BOX +3.7%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: MRNA +9.4% (ROIV and ABUS enter into $2.25 bln global settlement with MRNA; ROIV grants Moderna license to its LNP delivery technology), ANAB +4.3% (provides update on business separation, also announces Q4 results), FRSH +3.4% (CEO bought 125000 shares), FIP +2% (delays 10-K filing), TEVA +1.3% (Blackstone Life Sciences announces a $400 mln strategic funding agreement), SMTC +1.3% (acquires HieFo), SOPH +1.2% (files for 75,000 ordinary share offering by selling shareholders), NWSA +1.2% (NWSA and META sign AI content licensing deal valued at up to $50 mln a year, according to WSJ), KKR +0.9% (discloses insider buys), ROIV +0.5% (ROIV and ABUS enter into $2.25 bln global settlement with MRNA; ROIV grants Moderna license to its LNP delivery technology), FIGS +0.5% (BAMCO discloses increase of its stake to 37.93%), CPB +0.2% (names new Chief Supply Chain Officer), NBIS +0.2% (secures approval for its first gigawatt-scale AI factory)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: WBTN -13.6%, ACNT -12.3%, STAA -11.2% (also issues shareholder letter), HRZN -9.9%, GTLB -8.3% (also authorizes inaugural $400 mln share repurchase program), ARCT -5.2%, CRWD -0.9%, ORN -0.6%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: INDI -17.1% (files $150 mln convertible notes via private offering), ABUS -11.3% (ROIV and ABUS enter into $2.25 bln global settlement with MRNA; ROIV grants Moderna license to its LNP delivery technology), DAVE -2.8% ($150 mln convertible notes offering), SANA -1.8% (files mixed securities shelf offering), S -0.7% (names new CFO), TGT -0.4% (outlines strategic plan for a new chapter of growth; to invest an incremental $2 bln in 2026), UUUU -0.4% (names new CEO), MSFT -0.4% (OpenAI developing alternative to Microsoft's GitHub, according to TheInfo), META -0.3% (NWSA and META sign AI content licensing deal valued at up to $50 mln a year, according to WSJ), NVO -0.3% (Recent Ozempic commercial drew FDA criticism for misleading viewers, according to Bloomberg), INTC -0.2% (Board Chair to retire; Craig Barratt elected as Chair)

Politico : Trump to POLITICO: Iran is 'running out of launchers'

Trump to POLITICO: Iran is 'running out of launchers'
He also said U.S. defense companies are “under emergency orders” to build weaponry.

President Donald Trump said in an interview Tuesday that Iran was running out of crucial armaments and that he’d be open to working with some surviving members of the country’s ruling regime.

In a roughly 4-minute phone call with POLITICO, Trump argued that Tehran’s military capacity is being steadily degraded, even as Iranian forces are expected to “keep lobbing missiles for a while.”


“They’re running out and they’re running out of areas to shoot them, because they’re being decimated,” Trump said. “They’re running out of launchers.”


The president’s assertion is new, and had not been mentioned during a Monday Pentagon briefing or publicly by any other administration officials.

The president’s comments come as the U.S. and the Middle East brace for continued missile and drone attacks from Iran, which has retaliated in waves since the conflict erupted early on Saturday.

U.S. embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait announced Tuesday they would close and the State Department warned Americans across the Middle East to leave the region as the quickly expanding war entered its fourth day.

The president’s suggestion that Iran’s capacity to retaliate would soon subside comes as the timeline for hostilities, the U.S.’s own stockpile, the ultimate goal of the war and the plan for who leads Iran remains up for debate, even, at times, within the administration.

Trump during the interview said, “we have unlimited of the middle- and upper middle- ammunition and things. We save it and we build it.”

“The defense companies are on a rapid tear to build the various things we need,” he added. “They’re under emergency orders. We’re making it fast. But we have unlimited, as stupid as [former President Joe] Biden was, he didn’t use it.”

But on Tuesday Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) said there is a “potential desperate and disastrous shortage of THAAD and Patriot systems that are necessary to protect our embassies, our bases, our civilians.”

Trump has suggested the war could last four or five weeks or be over in a few more days.

He justified the war by saying Iran was on the verge of having a nuclear weapon or being capable of attacking the United States, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio and House Speaker Mike Johnson said Monday that Israel was poised to strike Iran anyway — meaning America would have been hit in response.

Varying constituencies within the GOP spent the weekend promoting their preferred candidate to lead Iran, with little more than lip service paid to the idea of a Democratic election.

Trump, on Tuesday, said he’d be open to engaging with a reconfigured Iranian government if one emerges from the conflict.

Asked whether it is too late for him to consider working with someone in a new government, Trump replied, “Nope, not too late. 49 [senior Iranian leaders] were killed, don’t forget, so that goes pretty deep, right? New ones are emerging. A lot of people want the job. Some of them would be very good.”

FT : Thales eyes higher defence sales as government spending booms

Thales eyes higher defence sales as government spending booms
French group says Middle East conflict shows how ‘disturbed state of geopolitics’ is driving rearmament

France’s Thales expects to build on a record defence order book and invest more in production, as war in the Middle East adds to a “generation-long” drive by governments in Europe and elsewhere to re-arm. 

The defence technology group, which makes air surveillance radars and software for fighter jets, including the Rafale, on Wednesday forecast higher revenue growth for the year ahead after sales rose 7.6 per cent to €22.1bn in 2025, driven largely by weapons systems.

Chief executive Patrice Caine said Europe was now “motoring” defence spending, adding to historically strong demand from the Middle East and South-east Asian countries, such as Indonesia, in a shake-up that could last 10 to 20 years.

“We’ve entered a long-term period of investment in defence, spanning a generation,” Caine told reporters.

He said that while it was too early to take stock of the effects of the Middle East conflict, “it is a reminder that the disturbed state of geopolitics in general is leading countries to invest more in security and therefore defence”.

The group said it was monitoring the situation for staff in the UAE and across the region as Iran carries out retaliatory strikes on US allies. A “crisis cell” dating back to the Covid-19 pandemic “has never been dismantled”, Caine said.

Defence activities outperformed Thales’s aviation and space unit in 2025 and offset falling sales in the company’s cyber division. 

Paris-based Thales forecast “strong demand, lifted notably by rising defence budgets” for 2026, after its defence order book rose 3 per cent last year to a new high of €15.1bn, driven especially by clients in Asia and European countries beyond France and the UK. 

Thales said its overall revenues could grow 6-7 per cent again this year, and forecast higher margins of 12.6 per cent to 12.8 per cent, up from 12.4 per cent in 2025.

Thales said it was also accelerating investments, including to expand manufacturing, lifting this budget by roughly 20 per cent a year. Capital expenditure will reach €830mn-€850mn in 2026.

Finance chief Pascal Bouchiat told the FT some of this was being spent on additional sites for engineers, as well as on design and information systems that also contributed to manufacturing.

Headcount rose by about 2,000 last year to 85,000.

Bouchiat said staff turnover had shrunk to just above 4 per cent from almost 7 per cent three years ago when there was stiff competition for hires from big US tech groups, such as Google, and that young recruits had become more open to joining the industry.

“We could see until around 2021 that some young people were hesitant regarding defence groups,” he added. “That’s no longer the case.”