WSJ : The Suspected Gangster Causing Headaches for Kushner’s Albania Deal Villag

The Suspected Gangster Causing Headaches for Kushner’s Albania Deal
Villagers say they warned Trump’s son-in-law their beachfront land was stolen by Artur Shehu, who now faces drug-related charges, which he denies

ZVERNEC, Albania—Residents of this tiny coastal village were shocked two years ago when Jared Kushner posted renderings of a planned Mediterranean resort on a slim peninsula sandwiched by the azure sea and a lagoon where flamingoes flock.

The images were of a spit of land where their parents and grandparents once raised potatoes. The villagers contended the property was stolen from them in the 2000s by Artur Shehu—a suspected gangster who fled to Miami after a gunfight at his bar.

So they wrote a letter to Kushner saying they were locked in nearly two decades of court disputes with Shehu, urging the developers not to proceed. The site, they wrote, is “owned by the village and its residents.”

Instead, a Kushner-backed development group pressed ahead and paid Shehu over $120 million for the land earlier this year. Two months later, Albanian prosecutors sought Shehu’s arrest for allegedly playing a lead role in a sweeping international drug-smuggling operation that brought cocaine from South America to Europe in shipments of charcoal and fruit paste.

Shehu laundered money through property—including the peninsula in Zvernec—that was stolen using techniques such as forged Ottoman-era land records, prosecutors said.


The controversy is the latest black eye for Kushner’s foreign real-estate ambitions—one piece of the post-2020 business career he launched after the first Trump administration. While most of his investing has been out of his $6 billion private-equity fund backed by Gulf wealth funds, Kushner also turned back to his real-estate roots. He talked of getting in front of the investment curve by developing in the Balkans, where tourism and property prices are rising, targeting Serbia and Albania.

He struck a no-bid deal with Serbia’s government to develop state-owned land in central Belgrade—drawing local criticism that Serbia’s government was trying to cozy up to Trump, a charge the government denied. The Serbia plans fell apart after weeks of protests and the indictment of a cabinet minister who pushed through project approvals. Kushner pulled out in December.

The Albania project in Zvernec has drawn a larger popular backlash. A video showing the Kushner-backed group’s private guards punching a local villager and dragging him across a beach sparked large daily protests in Tirana. They have continued for over two months, with protesters expanding their criticisms to endemic corruption and rampant development in a movement they call the Flamingo Revolution.

Unlike in Serbia, money has already changed hands here. The Kushner-backed development group paid well over $240 million for land to private landowners including Shehu, according to a person familiar with the sales.

Shehu’s lawyer, Kujtim Cakrani, says Shehu is neither a drug dealer nor a land thief, and he never dealt directly with Kushner—only acting through an intermediary.

“He has absolutely no connection to the charges,” Cakrani said. “He is simply a landowner, coming from a large landowning family,” and his interactions with others in the indictment were solely for legitimate business deals.

A spokesman for the development group—a venture of Kushner and other partners—said the Albanian legal system is “the appropriate venue for resolving questions about land ownership and the integrity of prior transactions.”

The group is aware of the allegations “regarding the land seller” and isn’t itself the subject of any investigation, he said, adding, “We continue to believe the underlying land acquisitions were conducted lawfully.”

Prosecutors say they have frozen Shehu’s money from the sale.

“Theoretically, the courts have the authority to temporarily block the disputed development,” Sotir Dhamo, an urban planning professor at Polis University in Tirana, said of contested properties facing development. “In practice, the courts are not fully independent from politics and hidden economic interests.”

Flamingo Drive
Shehu, 60, today lives in Miami, where property records show he owns a column-lined 4,000 square foot home on Miami Beach’s Flamingo Drive with his wife, a former Albanian television celebrity.

His route to South Florida runs through a particularly turbulent few decades of upheaval in his native Albania.

Isolated and poor during the Cold War, when its government broke with both the Soviet Union and China, Albania fared little better during the postcommunist 1990s. The country was racked with political instability, organized crime, depopulation and a massive pyramid scheme that nearly plunged the country into civil war.

Amid the disorder, Shehu emerged as an entrepreneur whose holdings included a hotel in the rough-and-tumble city of Vlore.

He caught the eye of Albanian antidrug police and Italian authorities, who suspected him of being in business with the Italian mafia—trafficking marijuana and smuggling aspiring émigrés to Italy with speedboats, said Dritan Zagani, one of the former Albanian state police officers who investigated him.

One day in 1999, Zagani said, police rushed to a bar after reports of fired shots. Shehu, they learned, got in a gunfight with a rival gang.

“After that, Artur disappeared,” Zagani said.

Cakrani, Shehu’s lawyer, said Shehu was attacked by pro-communist gangs for his anticommunist views. The law-enforcement scrutiny was politically motivated, he said. Neither the Italian nor the Albanian investigations led to charges.

Shehu resurfaced in Miami. He moved to the U.S. in 2001 and won asylum after citing attacks from the communist gangs, who killed his uncle and brother, Cakrani said.

He ultimately secured U.S. citizenship, Cakrani said, but kept a foot in Albania, growing a real-estate portfolio.

Shehu fell into the sights of law enforcement again in 2012 when Italian prosecutors sought his arrest in a broader case against an Italian crime family. Shehu co-owned a gelateria in Albania with an Italian mafia crime boss who wired Shehu over €1 million (roughly $1.3 million at the time), according to an Italian court ruling. Shehu also rented him space in a building for a casino, prosecutors said.

The Italian judge rejected the attempted arrest, saying that there wasn’t sufficient evidence to show Shehu was connected to anything illegal. Cakrani said Shehu’s involvement was solely as a landlord.

Still, he kept popping up in drug investigations. European law enforcement on surveillance operations spotted him in Monaco with suspected narcotics traffickers, Albanian prosecutors said. They got photos of him in 2019 in Mallorca at a meeting alongside a suspected top mob boss who has since been arrested. Shehu wasn’t charged in these investigations. His attorney said Shehu hasn’t had any legal trouble with any European country beyond Albania, and he was only involved in legal business deals.

His fortunes changed in June.

European drug investigators in Spain, Belgium and multiple other countries handed over voluminous files to an Albanian special prosecutors’ office known as SPAK, a unit set up in 2019 partly to address European Union concerns about Albanian corruption.

It is a widespread problem: In the past four years, prosecutors from SPAK have filed corruption charges against two former prime ministers, two former deputy prime ministers and numerous former cabinet ministers, all of whom have denied the charges. Armed with the European investigators’ files, SPAK in June secured a judge’s order to arrest Shehu and 19 other members of what they said was a large European drug ring.

Shehu had a “leadership position within the organization,” prosecutors said, charging him with money laundering and participating in a structured criminal group—similar to racketeering in the U.S.

The alleged drug network reached up and down the cocaine supply chain: Members of the Albanian network supervised production in Ecuador, put cocaine shipments onto boats hidden among fruits, soy, sugar and other products, guided them through Dutch ports, processed the drug at small factories and distributed it throughout Europe, prosecutors said.

Gains from cocaine filtered their way to Albania via cryptocurrency and cash smuggled on buses—with the group ultimately laundering money through Albanian real estate, prosecutors said. Some ended up financing a boxy red skyscraper in downtown Tirana, Albania’s capital, and coastal villas, prosecutors said. Shehu and his proxies were crucial to this effort, prosecutors said.

Cakrani said Shehu only conducted legitimate real-estate transactions and wasn’t involved in money laundering or any of the other alleged crimes.

Among the prosecutors’ charges: Shehu and his network acquired land used for laundering money by claiming historic ownership, frequently relying on forged documents. One of the larger pieces prosecutors cited: the land in Zvernec, the spot Kushner wants to develop.

‘A psychological problem’
The tiny village of Zvernec sits on the coast outside Vlore, known for its more than 700-year-old Byzantine-era monastery on the edge of the Narta Lagoon. Homes are clustered on a hill that sports vistas of the sea and trees dripping with figs and pomegranates.

Zoi Pula, 71, grew up in the village before moving to Greece where work was more plentiful. He returns in the summers to his family home on the hill. His great-grandfather moved to the village and used a patch of land in the nearby peninsula for grazing, he said.

When property was collectivized, his family used the land to farm potatoes, onions and other crops. After the communist government fell in 1991, his family was handed ownership of its chunk of peninsula farmland, which had since gone fallow.

In the mid-2000s, he said, he learned what one villager after another had discovered: Local property officials had given Shehu control of their peninsula land.

“We went crazy. We got angry. It was a psychological problem,” he said.

Real-estate ownership in Albania has been fraught for decades. After the fall of communism, the new government crafted a series of laws to return expropriated land, opening the door to a flood of overlapping claims. Those fell to the country’s creaky court system, where authorities have found numerous cases of corruption.

As they pursued their case, the villagers and others claiming ownership found Shehu had used similar tactics to amass much of the land in Zvernec: Through a lawyer, he used historic documents to show that his ancestor Seit Shehu previously owned the property.

One chunk of land was secured by one of Shehu’s lawyers in 2007 by presenting property officials a mistranslated Ottoman-era land record. While translating from Ottoman Turkish, an archivist substituted out the original owner and inserted Seit Shehu’s name instead, a court found. The lawyer and the archivist were later convicted on falsified documents-related charges, though the lawyer’s case is being retried.

Clashes and escalating protests erupted across Albania after bulldozers began clearing pine forests and leveling sand dunes for a $5 billion luxury tourism development on the Zvernec Peninsula and Sazan Island.
Clashes and escalating protests erupted across Albania after bulldozers began clearing pine forests and leveling sand dunes for a $5 billion luxury tourism development on the Zvernec Peninsula and Sazan Island. Armando Babani/Getty Images
“The falsity of this document has been proven,” Albania’s High Court ruled.

Shehu and numerous land claimants have traded victories in various trials and appeals, none of which forced Shehu to relinquish the land. Retrials and appeals are snaking through the system.

Cakrani said Shehu’s claims are based on substantial documentation showing his family was a large landowner—in Zvernec and elsewhere. Evidence filed in court cases includes numerous documents from the fascist Italian occupation and others from the early 1900s.

“There are legitimate documents that prove this is his land,” he said.

Razor wire
Kushner and his wife Ivanka Trump first got interested in Albania while on a yacht trip through the Mediterranean after Trump’s first term, dropping anchor en route between Montenegro and Greece. They explored the publicly owned island of Sazan, a former military site where locals trek by boat for day-trips.

“We swam to the island. We went on a hike,” she said on a podcast in May. “We were just captivated.”


Kushner later reached an accord with Prime Minister Edi Rama to develop Sazan, and began working on plans with Asher Abehsera, a U.S.-based developer who was Kushner’s partner redeveloping Brooklyn offices in the 2010s.

Soon after, Abehsera said in a June interview, the pair turned their gaze to the strip of undeveloped land 5 miles away, on the shore in Zvernec. There, locals take 4x4s to rest on pristine beaches where sea turtles nest and sheep graze.

Abehsera said he struck a deal with local partners, an Albanian conglomerate called Kastrati, whose name adorns gas stations around the country. The group approached landowners in Zvernec, initially offering to partner with them, Abehsera told The Wall Street Journal in 2024.

That spring, Kushner posted renderings of plans on Instagram, with villas carved into the cliff-side at Sazan and hotels lining Zvernec’s beaches.

Months later, in September 2024, a group of villagers sent their letter to Kushner’s firm urging the developer to refrain “from taking actions that undermine the real property rights of the village” while the disputes continue, according to a copy reviewed by the Journal.

At the time, Zvernec land disputes over the site were well-known locally, covered repeatedly in the press.

“We have no interest in developing anything that’s not rightfully or legally ours to develop,” Abehsera told the Journal in 2024 when asked about the disputes.

Sent a list of four landowners—including Shehu—Abehsera said “none of these are our partners,” in a 2024 message to the Journal.

Kushner and Abehsera refined plans, forming a venture named Sazan Real Estate Development.

Also on board was a large Qatari investment group run by the Al-Khayyat family. Kushner met the Al-Khayatts at the 2022 World Cup, and eventually turned to them as partners, as the family has experience developing island resorts in the Maldives and the Gulf

The development group, using an entity called Albania Land Development, paid €110 million, equivalent to $125 million, to Shehu for his land in April, prosecutors in the money-laundering case against Shehu said. Albanian corporate records show the entity is owned by Sazan Real Estate Development.


In late April, the Kushner-backed group put construction fencing at the environmentally protected peninsula’s edges, lining it with spools of razor wire.

When locals showed up to protest, hired security guards blocked the site. One punched a local villager in the throat, then dragged him across a beach, as police nearby watched.

The development group publicly disavowed the actions, attributing them to an unnamed security contractor.

But a video of the incident went viral. Outrage spread and protesters began filling downtown Tirana carrying signs with images of Kushner, flamingoes, and Trump. Days later, the indictment of Shehu was reported in Albanian media, bringing more people to the streets.

Soon after, Abehsera, Sazan Real Estate’s chairman, distanced his group from the controversy. He told the Journal in June he didn’t know if his firm had paid Shehu for land.

He also denied prior knowledge of the fights over the land. “We did not see or hear of any dispute at all,” he said.

The group is currently working on an environmental review document—a prerequisite to government approvals before construction. Despite a backlash that has included tens of thousands of protesters, European Union officials and celebrities such as Dua Lipa, the development has strong backing from Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama. He celebrates the $5 billion project as an important foreign investment that will boost the economy.

The Zvernec villagers fear getting bulldozed once again. “The only thing that I want now is that they give me back my land,” said Kostaq Konomi, village leader of Zvernec.

FT : Greg Abel finally puts Buffett’s cash pile to work Berkshire Hathaway chief

Greg Abel finally puts Buffett’s cash pile to work
Berkshire Hathaway chief ends more than three-year selling streak as he ploughs a net $20bn into stocks

Berkshire Hathaway chief executive Greg Abel ploughed a net $19.8bn into the stock market in the second quarter, ending a more than three-year selling streak by his predecessor Warren Buffett.

The investments, which include a $10bn deal to buy Alphabet common stock and $4.5bn spent on Berkshire’s own shares in the quarter, signal Abel’s appetite to leave his mark on the Omaha-based insurer by putting some of its mammoth $365bn cash pile to work.

Buffett’s decision to sit on the sidelines and prune the company’s $324bn listed stock portfolio over the past three years was seen as a sign that the famed value investor thought equities were overvalued.



That makes Abel’s decision to jump back into the market all the more stark, particularly as US equities sit at record highs.

Over the past few decades, Buffett’s investment decisions have been closely parsed for signs of where he believes the market might be headed. The record cash pile he had accumulated unnerved some investors, who suspected he was waiting for a downturn that would offer a better opportunity.

Berkshire, which owns the Geico and National Indemnity insurers as well as the maker of Duracell batteries and Fruit of the Loom underwear, reported its cash levels dropped by $15bn in the quarter.

Abel replaced Buffett at the start of the year after one of the longest and most influential tenures by an executive in the American corporate world. Buffett had run Berkshire for six decades, taking over the then-struggling textile maker in 1965.

Abel, who started his career as an accountant before rising through Berkshire’s energy business, has begun to forge his own legacy at the business. Days after anchoring an $85bn capital raise by Alphabet, Abel announced Berkshire had agreed to buy home builder Taylor Morrison for an enterprise value of $8.5bn.

The two deals were among the largest transactions Berkshire has completed in recent years and showed Abel was, as he said at the company’s annual meeting in May, willing to act “decisively” and make “significant” investments.

Berkshire spent $23bn buying publicly listed stocks in the second quarter, including the deal with Alphabet, making the parent of Google one of its top five holdings.


Disclosures on Saturday signalled Berkshire had invested $21bn into “commercial, industrial and other” listed stocks in the three months to the end of June, a category that includes Alphabet.

Investors will get a clearer look at the changes to Berkshire’s stock portfolio this month when it reports its quarterly holdings to US securities regulators.

The company sold $3.7bn worth of stocks during the quarter, the smallest amount since 2022.

Gabelli Funds portfolio manager Macrae Sykes, who holds Berkshire stock, said the share repurchases illustrated that the “best corporate capital allocators see current value” in the company’s stock.

Net income more than doubled from last year to $25.7bn, as the value of its stock positions swelled. US accounting standards require Berkshire to include the swings in the value of its stock portfolio as part of net income every quarter, which the company has said “can be extremely misleading”.

Berkshire’s results reflect the persistent strength of the US economy, with strong performance across multiple industries, even as concerns over high oil prices and inflation weigh on consumers’ wallets.

Operating income, Berkshire’s preferred method to gauge the performance of its owned businesses, rose 16 per cent from the previous year to $13bn.

The company’s BNSF railroad generated a 15 per cent jump in revenues, which it attributed to an increase in US imports along the west coast. A shortage of available trucks also pushed freight to the railroad.

Berkshire’s unit that sells electronic parts disclosed booming demand, which comes amid an investment spree to fund the build-out of AI infrastructure. Sales at the division, known as TTI, jumped by more than 26 per cent.

In contrast, the company’s flagship insurance businesses reported a 13 per cent drop in operating earnings to $1.7bn, as Geico had to pay out larger claims to policyholders and boosted its spending on advertising.


The results also reflected recent dealmaking by Ajit Jain, Berkshire’s vice-chair, who clinched an agreement this year to buy a 2.5 per cent stake in Japanese insurer Tokio Marine in exchange for a cut of its business.

Premiums written by Berkshire’s reinsurance business rose 4.1 per cent from the year before on the back of the deal. The company said that without it, the premiums it wrote would have declined.

Berkshire shares have climbed 3 per cent this year, lagging the 14 per cent total return of the benchmark S&P 500 stock index.

FT : ‘Don’t underestimate us’: German shipbuilder boss steers TKMS to large orde

‘Don’t underestimate us’: German shipbuilder boss steers TKMS to large order wins
Despite a series of deals, Oliver Burkhard stresses the importance of ‘prudent growth’ with a focus on delivery

Oliver Burkhard does not like champagne. Even if he did, the chief executive of German shipbuilder TKMS would not be popping corks, despite just having been picked for what promises to be the biggest deal in the company’s history. 

Although TKMS was named the “preferred supplier” of up to 12 new submarines last month by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in a deal worth some tens of billions of euros, Burkhard says it is too early to celebrate.

“The real work starts now,” he told the FT. “We must negotiate to reach a contract. We don’t have it yet.”

It is a typically cautious assessment from the understated Burkhard, who has pursued a highly unusual professional journey from union leader to corporate chief executive. 

TKMS, partly owned by the industrial conglomerate Thyssenkrupp, also came under the spotlight in late June when it clinched a deal to supply the German navy with up to eight Meko A-200 anti-submarine frigates.

The win came after defence minister Boris Pistorius pulled the plug on a rival warship project that leading defence contractor Rheinmetall had expected to take over, causing its share price to plunge almost 20 per cent.

TKMS’s win has eased some worries about its future, which swirled after it went public in October last year, around the same time as Rheinmetall branched into the naval business.

TKMS then beat South Korean defence giant Hanwha in the contest for the Canadian submarine deal a few weeks later. Burkhard said that TKMS was reaping the benefits of having “done our homework”, although he said that winning orders was “as exhausting and time-consuming as ever”.

The 54-year-old became TKMS chief in May 2022, a few months after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine kick-started a surge in European defence spending.

He joined Thyssenkrupp in 2013 after 16 years at IG Metall, Germany’s biggest and most powerful trade union.

At the Essen-based industrial giant, he went on to oversee the divestment of a slew of company divisions and thousands of redundancies. 

He strove to “balance the interests” of employees and the company and to reach solutions that allowed “everyone to keep working together the next day”, he said.

His years spent negotiating wage deals at IG Metall taught him the art of the “political compromise”, a skill that he believed prepared him well for the highly political business of selling warships and submarines.

When Burkhard took over the helm at TKMS in 2022, the company’s prospects were already looking up after a rocky period marred by uncertainty.

The previous year, Germany and Norway had struck a €5.5bn deal to jointly procure six of the company’s type 212CD submarines.

But the Ukraine war spurred fresh deals and extensions of existing orders as Nato members sought to step up their defences against Russia, especially in the Baltic and north Atlantic.

The company also benefited from souring relations between US President Donald Trump and Canada, pushing Ottawa towards closer defence ties with Europe. German officials threw their weight behind TKMS’s Canada pitch, promising that a German submarine deal would come with joint training, maintenance and even crew-sharing arrangements for decades to come.

After losing out to Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries on a $6.5bn frigate deal for Australia last year, it won a new order from longtime customer Singapore.

The company soon hopes to sign an $8bn deal with India’s state-owned Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders to jointly produce six submarines for the country’s navy. TKMS is also pushing into the rapidly growing field of unmanned systems.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank said earlier this month that TKMS had now “successfully converted all its outstanding major multibillion contract opportunities” and predicted that its order book would more than double to “well above €40bn” as a result.

The share price has had a choppy ride since October, but Burkhard said the company was still working through some “legacy orders” from before 2022 that were struck at less favourable terms. He cautioned it was unclear whether the Canadian order for the submarines would “come in tranches or all at once”, adding that it would “take a while” before any earnings lift.

Despite a booming order book, he stressed the importance of “prudent growth,” noting: “I don’t want to double every four years . . . The company would not necessarily be able to cope.”

Rather than chasing more new contracts, he is focused on delivery: “Execution, execution, execution.”

Revenues reached €2.2bn in the year to September 2025. The company’s medium-term goal is an adjusted operating profit margin of more than 7 per cent — compared with 6 per cent last year and less than 2 per cent in 2022.

Some in the industry have questioned TKMS’s ability to deliver, pointing to a chequered record on its deliveries for the German navy.

The first of a series of F125 frigates, built by TKMS together with NVL, was delayed by years. The K130 corvette also suffered severe delays — although TKMS was only a part of the consortium that built it rather than the lead contractor.

TKMS has promised to hand over the first Meko A-200 frigate to the German navy by the end of 2029, with a new ship every seven months after that. 

Burkhard is confident that the “off-the-shelf” ship, already sold in similar form to Egypt, Algeria and Brazil, can be delivered on time. He says he looks forward to the day when he can say: “Look, the doubts were unfounded.”

He believed that Rheinmetall may have “underestimated . . . the complexity” of the frigate project dropped by Berlin in June. But Burkhard said he did not want to write off Rheinmetall’s shipbuilding ambitions. The expected deal had been a key driver in Papperger’s decision to pay €1.5bn for NVL in a deal that closed in March.

“We do not underestimate them. I hope they don’t underestimate us either.”

FT : Impatient yacht owners make for a hot new asset class Marinas tick the ‘dep

Impatient yacht owners make for a hot new asset class
Marinas tick the ‘dependable cash flow’ box with relative ease and come with plenty of room for improvement

Where are the customers’ yachts? A new investment trend has given that old financial question new meaning. Last month, CVC agreed to sell marina group D-Marin to French private equity firm InfraVia for around €1bn. Private equity peers Stonepeak and Blackstone have done similar deals. Yacht parkings, it turns out, make good infrastructure bets.

Where infrastructure once meant assets like roads, railways, bridges and power plants, these days it is more of a state of mind. Anything that is only lightly exposed to competition, offers dependable cash flows and demands ongoing investment can qualify, from chip factories and crematoriums to chicken farms and satellite constellations.

Marinas fit the bill. For a start, they are scarce. Coastlines are finite and planning permissions hard to come by. More and bigger boats have created a chronic shortage of berths. About 6,500 new yachts are delivered annually and new marinas — which can take five to 10 years to be realised — add an average of 300 berths each, McKinsey estimates. 

The “dependable cash flow” box is also ticked with relative ease. Boat owners need somewhere to keep their vessels, in good times and bad. Sometimes, bad times even help. During Covid, boating demand rose as affluent consumers sought to escape their living rooms.


On top of that, they also come with plenty of room for improvement. A private equity owner might be able to squeeze more berths in, add restaurants and lounges, introduce tiered pricing and extra perks like boat cleaning — and expand, if there is room nearby.

By amassing sites, operators can also get bargaining power on equipment such as boat hoists and fenders, and can offer subscriptions — that most beloved of private equity revenue models — that ensure sailors a berth at each marina in the network.

Sellers aren’t oblivious to this allure. Blackstone paid around 21 times Safe Harbor’s “funds from operations” — a cash flow-like metric used in real estate. That’s roughly double what Sun Communities paid for the business five years earlier. Individual marina assets are now estimated to be changing hands for around 15 per cent more than they were five years ago, according to a person familiar with industry pricing.

There are, nonetheless, plenty of potential candidates for more deals: like self-storage, camping sites and motor homes, ownership of marinas remains fragmented. Around 95 per cent of the world’s marinas remain in the hands of individuals, families or governments. As the wealthy get wealthier and yachts get bigger, marinas look like a logical twist on the infrastructure investment theme — only with much better views.

>>> Barrons Weekend Summary

Cover Story:
-Now more than ever, the global economy runs through Texas. The state’s low taxes, light regulation, abundant energy and growing population have attracted Oracle, Tesla, Caterpillar and dozens of other major companies, helping Texas overtake California with 57 Fortune 500 headquarters. AI could accelerate the boom because Texas is rapidly adding both gas-fired and renewable power for data centers. But its hypercapitalist experiment is encountering limits: worsening water shortages threaten growth, while looser corporate-governance rules designed to challenge Delaware risk triggering a nationwide “race to the bottom” in shareholder protections.

CEO Interview:
-No update

Tech Trader:
-It was another busy week of earnings for companies caught up in the artificial-intelligence trade. Barron’s argues that tech narratives are flipping rapidly: Palantir surged 29% after accelerating revenue growth established it as an AI winner, while Atlassian jumped 35%. Sandisk, Western Digital, AMD and Datadog were punished despite respectable results as expectations outran guidance. The standout opportunity may be AppLovin, whose shares have halved this year as growth decelerated. Yet Wall Street still expects roughly 30% annual sales growth in 2027-28, while its valuation has fallen below the S&P 500 multiple

The Trader:
-Snap stock popped after it reported earnings, but soon crackled as the gains disappeared. Snap reported 495M daily users, up 5%, but users fell 7% in North America and 2% in Europe, while growth came from markets generating just $1 in revenue per user versus $10.26 in North America. Barron’s is also skeptical of its $2,195 Specs augmented-reality glasses, questioning whether Snap can compete successfully in hardware against Apple and Meta. The conclusion is emphatic: stay away from the stock.
-If you’re worried about inflation, well-worn investing wisdom suggests buying gold. New research argues that conventional wisdom is wrong: gold’s correlation with inflation is just 0.07, and adding it to a traditional stock-and-bond portfolio does little to mitigate inflation risk. The persistence of gold’s reputation may instead reflect investor psychology, including herding, anchoring and confirmation bias. Barron’s concedes the metal retains an extraordinary hold over investors, but the evidence for owning it specifically as an inflation hedge is surprisingly weak

Features:
-Dave lost 97% of its value before a 1-for-32 reverse split. The fintech has since staged a spectacular recovery, making it a timely cautionary tale as SPACs roar back into fashion. Barron’s argues that the renewed enthusiasm risks reviving the excesses of the previous SPAC boom, when easy money and optimistic projections produced huge losses. Dave ultimately built a viable business, but its brutal journey shows why investors should distinguish genuine operating improvement from the speculative machinery surrounding SPAC deals.
-Positive readouts in cancer and cardiac drug trials could keep the biotech rally going. Barron’s sees potentially important catalysts ahead for Merck, Moderna, Summit Therapeutics and other drugmakers as investors await clinical results capable of reshaping multibillion-dollar markets. After a long period of weak sentiment, biotech and pharma stocks have been recovering, and successful late-stage trials could extend the advance. The opportunity comes with the sector’s familiar binary risk: disappointing trial data can erase billions in market value almost instantly.

European Trader:
-Even as the European Union has enough problems with the White House, it just waved a red flag in front of U.S. President Donald Trump on a hot-button trade issue. Brussels fined Alphabet’s Google €890M under the Digital Markets Act, following an earlier €4.1B judgment, while Meta and Apple have also faced EU action. Europe sees digital regulation as a sovereignty issue, but the confrontation could threaten transatlantic trade. Trump has promised retaliation, and Washington could use Section 301 tariffs against what it considers discriminatory European regulation, potentially jeopardizing the EU’s roughly €200B goods surplus with the U.S.

Emerging Markets:
-Barron’s warns that a powerful El Niño could provide the next inflationary shock, disrupting harvests across Asia, Latin America and Africa and pushing up prices for food and other commodities. Emerging markets are particularly vulnerable because food carries greater weight in consumer-price indexes, potentially forcing central banks to delay rate cuts or even tighten policy. The effects could also spill into developed economies through higher import costs. The column additionally examines Washington’s extraordinary intervention to support the yen, mounting AI cybersecurity risks, and how Kyivstar has managed to keep Ukraine’s communications infrastructure operating through more than four years of war.

Commodities:
-MP Materials had a busy quarter as it continues to morph itself from a mining company into a supplier of products for critical U.S. manufacturing operations. Sales nearly doubled to $108.5M, while Nd-Pr production rose 41% and sales volumes 127%. MP is shifting downstream from concentrates into oxides, metals and magnets, with shipments to General Motors expected late this year and Apple in 2027. A new aerospace-defense contract for gadolinium broadens the strategy further. Crucially, Nd-Pr prices have moved toward the Pentagon-backed price floor, suggesting China’s ability to dictate global rare-earth pricing is weakening.

Streetwise:
-Jack Hough observes that Coca-Cola is clobbering PepsiCo, helped by Coke Zero’s rapid growth, market-share gains across several soda categories and a decade-long transformation into an asset-light marketing company. Coca-Cola trades at 26 times projected earnings versus 16 for PepsiCo, whose Frito-Lay and Quaker businesses leave it exposed to weakening snack demand, potentially aggravated by GLP-1 drugs. Hough prefers Coke if forced to choose, but thinks its valuation is rich and Pepsi’s food exposure problematic. For now, he quips, the best Big Soda stake might be “zero.”

Barron's : These New Drugs Could Fuel Fresh Highs for Biotech and Pharma Stocks

These New Drugs Could Fuel Fresh Highs for Biotech and Pharma Stocks
Positive readouts in cancer and cardiac drug trials could keep the rally going. Sizing up the stakes for Merck, Moderna, Summit Therapeutics, and more.

Biotech stocks have recaptured investors’ attention this year amid a wave of drug innovation, which is spurring merger-and-acquisition activity in the biopharma industry and a fresh round of initial public offerings. The enthusiasm has lifted the State Street SPDR S&P Biotech
exchange-traded fund nearly 26% year to date, to levels not seen since 2021, when Wall Street last went crazy for drugs.

A four-year bear market followed that breakout as interest rates rose and Wall Street cooled to companies without profits. This time, the bullish sentiment is likely to last.

“Biotech is coming off a protracted downturn, largely exacerbated by high interest rates and macro uncertainty,” says venture investor Peter Kolchinsky, who runs RA Capital Management. “It feels like a return to a healthy pace of activity.”

That may be an understatement. As Big Pharma looks to replace $200 billion to $300 billion in branded drugs coming off patent between now and 2030, companies have gone on a spending spree, snapping up smaller outfits with drugs in testing and, in some cases, marketed products. So far this year, there have been 33 buyouts of biotech firms worth $500 million or more, with three deals in June and July exceeding $10 billion each.

Likewise, the new issue window for iShares Biotechnology ETF is wide open again. Seventeen companies have come public this year, raising $5.5 billion, according to industry website BioPharma Dive, compared with just eight deals in all of 2025, which raised $1.5 billion. June’s $670 million debut of Parabilis Medicines was the largest biotech IPO ever.

If biopharma companies are Wall Street’s latest growth darlings, the longer-term outlook for their shares will depend on the success of the drugs they develop. Pivotal readouts from clinical trials for drugs to treat cancer and heart disease are coming later this year, and could be catalysts for further gains in the stocks.

Merck, Novartis, and Bristol Myers Squibb are the biggest pharmaceutical companies with critical readouts ahead. Among smaller companies, biotechs Moderna and Summit Therapeutics have the most riding on test results.

Drug trials have high failure rates, as investors are reminded all too frequently. Shares of AstraZeneca and Ionis Pharmaceuticals sold off in early July when the companies’ drug Wainua failed a Phase 3 trial for a rare heart disease. At the end of the month, Novo Nordisk stock dropped 10% on the news that its treatment for artery inflammation didn’t meaningfully reduce heart attacks.

Still, recent successes are attracting new buyers, especially as investors question the outlook for the market’s other growth darling: artificial-intelligence stocks. “I’m seeing generalist investors interested in pharmaceuticals, after a multiyear slumber,” says Goldman Sachs pharma analyst Asad Haider.

Even if some are buying pharma stocks as a hedge against AI shares, there is a lot of potential value from recent drug innovations, Haider says.

Bispecific Benefits
Cancer drugs historically have contributed about half of the drug industry’s sales, and they remain a research focus, says Agustin Mohedas, a biotech analyst at Janus Henderson Investors. His firm’s funds made a smart bet on Revolution Medicines, whose stock has doubled since mid-April, after a Phase 3 trial of its daraxonrasib pill produced unprecedented survival gains in pancreatic cancer.

Once seen as a likely acquisition candidate, Revolution is now a big swallow, given its $40 billion market cap.

Trial results for Summit Therapeutics’ ivonescimab, another cancer drug, could prove the biggest biopharma stock catalyst of the year’s second half, says Goldman Sachs biotech analyst Salveen Richter. That’s because Summit has practically bet its future on the so-called PD1/VEGF bispecific antibody that combines an immune-boosting feature, like that of the top-selling PD1-inhibitor, Merck’s Keytruda, with the power to choke a tumor’s blood supply, like Roche VEGF inhibitor Avastin. Those features seem to work better in combination than administered as two separate drugs.

Many hope that bispecifics like Summit’s will become part of the next standard of care for many cancers, replacing today’s combination of chemo drugs and an immunotherapy. Merck sold $32 billion worth of Keytruda in 2025, but patent protections peel off in the next few years.

“Summit’s bispecific cancer drug is looking to unseat Keytruda,” Richter says. “Is it going to beat Keytruda? I’m more optimistic than not that it should.”

Summit’s Harmoni-3 study will be the first global Phase 3 trial that compares a PD1/VEGF antibody head-to-head against Keytruda, for the treatment of lung cancer. Before year end, the study should reveal how well Summit’s drug stalled the progression of squamous small-cell lung cancer, with interim data on how many patients remain alive. Results for the more prevalent non-squamous lung cancer will come in 2027.

Richter believes the study will be deemed a success if it stalls lung cancer progression by 25% to 30% more than Keytruda.

Summit’s co-CEOs, Bob Duggan and Maky Zanganeh, have shown they know a good thing when they see it. In 2003, they sold the robot surgery firm Computer Motion to Intuitive Surgical. In 2015, they sold Pharmacyclics to AbbVie, for $21 billion. And they were among the first U.S. pharma leaders to recognize China’s growing prowess in medical research, when Summit licensed ivonescimab from Hong Kong–listed Akeso in 2022.

Wall Street is optimistic about Summit’s drug trial because Akeso has done four successful trials in China. With two approvals there already, it has treated 70,000 Chinese patients. “The amount of data already generated on ivonescimab is tremendous,” says Summit’s strategy chief, Dave Gancarz.


Summit has rights to the drug outside of China. Excitement over Akeso’s trial results in China lifted Summit stock as high as $33 in the past couple of years. Lately it has traded below $14.

The consensus among analysts tracked by S&P Global’s Visible Alpha is that approvals for treating cancers of the lung and other organs could lift Summit sales from nothing today to $800 million in 2028. In a decade, sales could top $30 billion.

That’s why the Harmoni-3 trial will be a stock catalyst. Richter thinks successful readouts over the next year could vault Summit stock to $41. In a buyout, she thinks the stock could fetch above $70.

Summit won’t have the PD1/VEGF bispecific market to itself, however. Bristol and Pfizer have bispecifics in clinical trials. Even Keytruda seller Merck says it is ready to put its own PD1/VEGF into Phase 3 trials.

Vindication for Cancer Vaccines?
Another key readout this year could vindicate vaccines as a cancer treatment.

Cancer vaccines had a history of disappointment until June, when Merck and Moderna reported that a randomized Phase 2 trial of their intismeran autogene vaccine cut the risk of melanoma relapse in half, when used with Keytruda after surgeons removed the skin cancer. Moderna stock nearly doubled in the subsequent weeks to more than $85, although it has since fallen back to $56.

The companies will report interim results later this year from the Phase 3 trial of their melanoma vaccine.

One reason cancer vaccines are showing better results is that doctors are using them before tumors have spread and insulated themselves against the immune system, says Moderna’s chief development officer, David Berman. Another key to their success is the way messenger-RNA technology like Moderna’s can individualize the vaccine for the mutations of each patient’s cancer. Moderna targets as many as 34 abnormal proteins in a patient’s tumor. Side effects are minimal.

The Phase 3 interim analysis could be shared at the European Society for Medical Oncology conference in late October. UBS analyst Michael Yee thinks the news might move Moderna stock as much as 25%, even though he has been neutral on the stock this year. A strong benefit would also bode well for vaccines that Moderna and Merck are developing for cancers of the lungs, kidneys, bladder, pancreas, and stomach.

“If this study is positive, what it will mean for patients is amazing,” says Jane Healy, who heads Merck’s early clinical development for oncology.

Because cancer vaccines like intismeran are customized for each patient, it is a challenge to scale up treatment volumes. So, analysts think the product will matter most for Moderna’s business. The Visible Alpha consensus predicts that cancer vaccines could rise from less than 10% of Moderna’s sales in 2028 to two-thirds of its $7 billion in sales by 2035.

Cardiology Renaissance
This year is also delivering the fruits of what Goldman Sachs calls the cardiology renaissance. A crop of new drugs could make the biggest contribution to reducing heart attacks and strokes since statins began lowering LDL cholesterol 30 years ago.

Cardiovascular disease remains the leading cause of death. Further research has zeroed in on other troublemakers besides LDL. One is lipoprotein(a), a blood fat that is too high in 20% of the world’s population. The condition is genetic, and no amount of dieting or exercise can lower lipo(a). There has never been a drug to treat it, either.

Until now. In the next few months, Novartis will report the results from the Horizon study of pelacarsen, an injectable drug that it developed with Ionis Pharmaceuticals. The 8,300-person Phase 3 trial is the first pivotal test that will show whether reducing lipo(a) leads to fewer heart attacks, strokes, or emergency heart stents.


Success in this first test of a lipo(a) treatment is mostly discounted in the current stock prices of Novartis and Ionis, says Richter. But their proof of concept could bring a boost to other firms testing lipo(a) treatments. Amgen has a lipo(a) drug in Phase 3 trials that Richter thinks will prove more potent than the Novartis product. Eli Lilly
has Phase 3 studies on a lipo(a) injection and a pill.

Around the end of this year, Bristol Myers Squibb will learn if it has found a blood-thinning drug that is better than Eliquis, one of its big sellers. That’s when Bristol should report on one of two Phase 3 trials of milvexian, a clot-preventing drug it developed in partnership with Johnson & Johnson.

Patients with irregular heartbeats known as atrial fibrillation are often prescribed blood thinners like Eliquis or J&J’s Xarelto to ward off clots that can precipitate a stroke. But as many as 40% of patients on Eliquis have to reduce their dose because such drugs increase bleeding. Early studies showed that milvexian caused less bleeding as it reduced clots by inhibiting a protein called Factor XI.

Around year end, one of the so-called Librexia trials will tell if milvexian prevents additional strokes among people who’ve had already had one. In next year’s first quarter, the other trial will show if the drug prevents strokes as well as Eliquis in people with atrial fibrillation — who number some 10 million in the U.S.

Eliquis was Bristol’s biggest-selling drug last year, bringing in $14 billion. European market exclusivity for the drug expired earlier this year. U.S. exclusivity ends in April 2028, and analysts see Eliquis sales falling by half that year.

If milvexian proves as potent in preventing clots with less bleeding, Bristol will have found its Eliquis successor.

“Bristol Myers is highly levered to this,” says Haider, of the milvexian outcomes.

WSJ : Reservation Apps Have Made Getting Into a Restaurant a Nightmare After a f

Reservation Apps Have Made Getting Into a Restaurant a Nightmare
After a flurry of deals, new apps, membership clubs and other middlemen are fighting over access to high-spending customers and the eateries they love

You’re trying to book a table and you can’t get a reservation. The only times available on the apps are either 5 p.m. or 10:30 p.m., or every possible slot is gone, even though you logged on at midnight, weeks in advance.

This isn’t just New York or Los Angeles anymore. In cities across the country, high-end restaurants seem increasingly hard to get into.

To blame is a flurry of dealmaking among reservation apps and credit cards, as well as a booming industry of middlemen—all of whom are fighting over access to high-spending diners who account for around a quarter of the roughly $1.5 trillion Americans spend eating out, federal data shows.

Reservation apps are competing to sign up restaurants with the goal of locking in tables exclusively for their top users. Then there are membership clubs popping up for people who are willing to pay extra to secure tables and cut the line. And credit-card companies are paying restaurants for blocks of early seats so they can offer coveted reservations as a perk for their cardholders.

On top of that, there is a new secondary market for apps and bots that promise to get around the original reservation apps. And delivery companies have even joined the fray, with Uber Eats partnering with the granddaddy of reservation apps, OpenTable, and DoorDash buying SevenRooms, a reservation-management system geared toward higher-end restaurants, for $1.2 billion last year.

Scott Weiner, head of Fifth/50 Group, a Chicago-based network of restaurants and cocktail bars including Kindling and the Berkshire Room, has received offers of tens of thousands of dollars in total from the major reservation apps. One pitch he passed on for an exclusive partnership was for roughly $15,000 in cash, plus an event to showcase his restaurants, he said.

“Ten thousand doesn’t really do anything to me,” Weiner said.

The slicing and dicing of available tables can mean there are only so many seats at the most sought-after establishments, begetting a sense of scarcity at the highest levels.

“My personal view is that money invested in restaurants is a good thing. Full stop,” said Pablo Rivero, the CEO of Resy, which was purchased in 2019 by American Express and has since started offering money to high-end restaurants for exclusivity or table access.

He said the app-on-app competition only applies to a small percentage of restaurants and that the fervor over exclusive restaurant access is part of a broader cultural phenomenon, much like the long lines that form for popular doughnuts or bubble tea.

OpenTable, which has partnerships with Visa and Chase, said less than 1% of the 70,000 restaurants on its platform are paid to hold tables for their dining access programs.

John Winterman, co-owner of Francie, a Michelin-starred restaurant in the hip Brooklyn neighborhood of Williamsburg in New York, embraces as many of the apps as his diners do. On a recent Friday night, he was swiping through a tablet, showing four different interfaces of reservation apps. “We’re married to Resy, but we have OpenTable, SevenRooms and also Yelp as our mistresses,” he said with some audible fatigue.

“I just want to take advantage and meet the customer where they are,” he added.

For most restaurants, even the very high-end ones, working with the apps is a matter of survival. The cost of labor, food and other operations have skyrocketed in recent years, further eroding the industry’s famously razor-thin margins. Full-service restaurants reported a median income before taxes of 2.8% of sales last year, with expenses up 36% from before the pandemic, according to the National Restaurant Association trade group.

“If you look at how restaurants as an industry have evolved in the last 25 years, you’re looking at an industry where the top-line sales have grown massively,” said Ben Leventhal, a co-founder of Resy, who now runs Blackbird, a restaurant loyalty and rewards app.

But the bottom lines on the accounting ledgers darken the view considerably. “The numbers around profitability in restaurants that have come out from 2025 are staggering,” Leventhal said. “Almost half of all restaurants are not profitable.”

Empty tables are lost money for restaurants. There are reservation apps that let restaurants charge diners who don’t show or cancel within a certain time period. But some restaurateurs grouse that the apps also make diners feel removed from a restaurant and more blase about canceling, and less likely to just walk in.

Some establishments have hired executives to manage all the technology needed to power reservations, customer relations and online ordering, said Chris DeSaye, vice president of Information Technology for Gibsons Restaurant Group.

“You need 85 pieces of technology and a guy like me,” said DeSaye, whose company has around 700 tables across 14 restaurants for booking. “It’s one of the requirements of the business.”

Restaurants once lived and died by their reservation books, big manual records of tables and times typically managed by hosts.

That started to change in 1998, when San Francisco-based entrepreneur Chuck Templeton started OpenTable, which allowed diners to secure a reservation online. Many restaurants were skeptical at first, but OpenTable went so far as to help secure internet connections for establishments.

The pitch to restaurants “was getting more butts on seats,” Templeton said, along with better customer tracking. It typically charged the eateries $1 per diner seated, as well as software fees.

OpenTable grew to thousands of participating restaurants by the mid 2000s, and introduced its first iPhone app in 2008. The company went public in 2009, with a more than $430 million valuation and partnerships with more than 10,000 restaurants. By the time travel giant Priceline bought OpenTable in 2014, it served more than 30,000 restaurants and was valued at $2.6 billion.

By 2015, as smartphones became ubiquitous, competitors like Resy, Tock, Reserve and SevenRooms pitched slicker apps for customers and iPad interfaces for restaurants, along with better business terms and access to diner data for establishments.

Acquisitions and deals with credit cards followed. In 2019, American Express bought Resy in part to court younger spenders and get its cards accepted by more restaurants. Resy users got annual credit through American Express to use at the restaurants partnered with the platform, along with early access to reservations and invites to special events.

In 2024, OpenTable struck a deal with Visa to provide cardholders exclusive access to coveted tables at hundreds of U.S. restaurants. It also partnered with Chase last year to give restaurant benefits to those who paid $795 annually for Sapphire Reserve cards, including $300 in restaurant credits a year and access to prime time reservations and events.

“We got into this game that we didn’t invent but was necessary to play,” Debby Soo, CEO of OpenTable, said of the financial incentives.

Soo took the job in 2020 with a mission: fix the platform’s relationship with restaurants. She ditched just charging restaurants per seated table, negotiated more flexible deals, and updated the company’s clunky technology.

That wasn’t enough for OpenTable to get the highly coveted restaurants back on the platform, Soo said. So OpenTable offered cash incentives courtesy of their credit-card partners to win them back—which worked, Soo said.

In 2025, OpenTable won high-profile New York City restaurants from Resy including Gage & Tollner and Don Angie, according to NYC RSVPs, a crowdsourced tracker of reservations started by a programmer, MB Samuel, who created the tool in 2024 after struggling to get tables in the West Village.

The delivery platform DoorDash entered the arms race last year when it bought SevenRooms. Restaurant owners say they have been offered five to seven figure sums to switch to SevenRooms since then.

The company also began pitching a free service to restaurants earlier this year that would pool reservations across platforms, so that restaurant staff no longer had to toggle among apps. (OpenTable says the service violates their terms of service; SevenRooms says it is a matter of choice for the restaurant.)

“Operators have been absorbing that complexity themselves, manually, every night. That should not be the standard,” said SevenRooms’ CEO Joel Montaniel.

“One of the reasons why you see restaurants hopping and skipping back and forth between platforms is that they’re slightly dissatisfied,” said Mike Anthony, executive chef at Gramercy Tavern in New York City. “Restaurants are not finding a solution to their problems and not feeling satisfied and have the feeling that they’re missing out on market share.”

The layers of technology have led to consumer confusion about how and where to make reservations. In some cases, a restaurant will seem fully booked when, in reality, the restaurant simply appears on an app that doesn’t have access to its tables. A crop of middlemen are now capitalizing on this bewilderment.

Tarek Arafat was pulling his hair out trying to get reservations for hot New York City restaurants when he and co-founder Frank Besson created TableOne, an app that scrapes online reservations the second they are released and makes them accessible to TableOne members. Now, roughly 10,000 subscribers pay $129 a year for the service in eight cities.

Liz Luciano, an executive assistant to New York City financial and real-estate firms, frequently has to secure reservations for in-demand restaurants like The Corner Store or The Polo Bar for her bosses.

She recently tried to sign up for Dorsia, a new members-only platform that provides premium reservations for steep fees and is named for the impossible-to-book restaurant in the Bret Easton Ellis book “American Psycho.”

Despite handling reservations for real-estate brokers who spend thousands of dollars on client dinners, she was told that the app was full, and another time, that it was highly selective. Dorsia members join at three different membership tiers—which affect members’ access to prime places at prime times—in limited markets that include Aspen, St. Barts, Ibiza, Martha’s Vineyard, and the Hamptons. Not everyone can get the hottest restaurant for a Saturday night; lower-tier members may have to settle for a Tuesday.

“We have to become the miracle workers,” said Luciano, adding that in her view, the restaurants “have moved so far away from the clients.”

Other sites, including Apartment Trader, auction off reservations made by AI bots or digitally savvy entrepreneurs. Bidding can hit hundreds or even thousands of dollars. (Scalpers have also gotten into the reservation resell business.) Roughly half a dozen states, including Illinois and New York, have tried to crack down by passing bans on reservation piracy.

To keep its most loyal patrons from becoming alienated, Francie is one of the many restaurants now offering house accounts or memberships that give guests a way to make reservations directly, even at the last minute.

“I’m a little bit of the old school of cultivating regulars and getting people to want to come back to you,” Winterman, the owner of Francie, said. “And when I dine out, I tend to go to places I’ve been.”

Still, he acknowledged a modern dynamic has crept into his own life. “My wife and I have multiple cards depending on airline points or hotel points or cashback awards,” he said. “If a restaurant’s on Resy, I make the reservation through my Resy account because I get dining credit for American Express Platinum.”

To cut through the confusion, Anthony, the executive chef at Gramercy Tavern, suggests an old-school tactic: Pick up the phone and call.

“What most people don’t fully understand is that we have a 10 to 15% cancellation and no-show rate in every restaurant in New York City,” he said. “Restaurants are very eager and yearning to get those tables filled.”

WSJ : Situational Awareness Bets $400 Million on Stealth Chip Startup After Cras

Situational Awareness Bets $400 Million on Stealth Chip Startup After Crash
Investment marks the latest known private-company bet by Situational Awareness after quick sale of its stock portfolio

  • Hedge fund Situational Awareness invested a fresh $400 million this week in Source Foundry, a private startup aiming to reinvent chip manufacturing.
  • Stanford University researchers founded Source Foundry last year, and the startup recently raised funds at a $5 billion valuation.
  • The investment shows Situational Awareness founder Leopold Aschenbrenner’s willingness to fund technically complicated and ambitious bets.

AI-battered hedge fund Situational Awareness made a big bet this week in Source Foundry, a private company aiming to reinvent the way chips are manufactured, according to people familiar with the matter.

The company has invested $500 million in the startup, including a fresh $400 million infusion this week, one of the people said. Founded last year by Stanford University researchers Abdulmalik Obaid and Joe Burg, Source Foundry has already raised at least several hundred million dollars to date, including a recent fundraising at a valuation of $5 billion, one of the people said. Sequoia Capital previously backed the startup.

A spokesperson for Situational Awareness didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Situational Awareness, run by 24-year-old Leopold Aschenbrenner, developed a strategy of backing early-stage startups before they have a product or revenue, as well as publicly traded stocks, an uncommon approach that spans nearly every stage of a company’s life cycle. Its investment in Source Foundry shows Aschenbrenner’s willingness to fund technically complicated and ambitious bets that will take many years to develop commercially viable technology.

Aschenbrenner managed a large portfolio of publicly traded stocks, such as memory-chip makers SK Hynix and Sandisk, AI cloud computing provider Nebius Group and fuel-cell maker Bloom Energy, but sold the bulk of its stock portfolio to Ken Griffin’s investment firm Citadel in July after incurring substantial losses.

The hedge fund retained the portfolio of private stakes it had amassed, including a multibillion-dollar stake in Anthropic, as well as investments in the cloud startup Fluidstack and chip startup MatX. Aschenbrenner had told investors he would invest up to 30% of the portfolio in private companies. Situational discussed selling $3.5 billion worth of its Anthropic stake to Sequoia and Greenoaks to cover margin calls from its lenders, but it had a change of heart and backed out of the deal.

Earlier this year, Situational co-led an investment with Lux Capital in Physical Intelligence, which is building an AI model to command robots, valuing it at $11.5 billion, including the new capital, according to people familiar with the matter. Founders Fund, Thrive Capital, Kleiner Perkins, Accel and Iconiq also participated in the financing, which totaled about $1 billion, one of the people said.

Bloomberg earlier reported that Situational had invested $400 million in a company backed by Sequoia.

Source Foundry aims to fix the core bottleneck in AI computing: chip manufacturing. It plans to develop new machines, equipment and software for manufacturing AI chips to challenge Dutch firm ASML Holding. ASML sells extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, which are necessary for making cutting-edge AI chips, and reported sales of 32.67 billion euros in 2025.

“If you trace the AI supply chain upstream, from models to chips to the machines that manufacture them, each layer becomes increasingly critical and constrained,” Stephanie Zhan, a partner at Sequoia, said in a statement. “Source Foundry tackles the tightest bottleneck: tooling for semiconductor manufacturing, starting in lithography.”

ASML’s machines are the size of a school bus, take a very long time to build and install, and can cost more than $400 million each. Source Foundry is betting it can deliver a faster, cheaper alternative that will meet the surging demand for chip-making equipment driven by the AI boom.

Several startups are working on bringing this technology back to the U.S., including Substrate, xLight, and Inversion Semiconductor.

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Obaid completed his Ph.D. at Stanford in 2019 where he focused on bringing silicon computing power to the brain, according to his LinkedIn profile. Burg earned his Ph.D. in materials science and engineering.