The Information : ByteDance’s Founder Rules Out Distillation on AI Models

ByteDance’s Founder Rules Out Distillation on AI Models

The Takeaway
  • ByteDance founder Zhang Yiming rejects AI model distillation strategy.
  • Decision aims to avoid U.S. scrutiny and protect TikTok’s global operations.
  • ByteDance’s LLMs currently lag rivals due to this strategic choice.

ByteDance won’t resort to distillation as a shortcut to advancing its AI model capabilities, even if that means the company lags behind domestic rivals for now, founder Zhang Yiming told employees during a meeting last month. One reason, say people close to the company, is ByteDance’s complicated history with the U.S. government over the company’s TikTok video app.

The previously unreported comments, heard by two employees present at the meeting, offer a rare glimpse into the ByteDance founder’s thinking on the company’s AI development strategy. The meeting, an all-hands for ByteDance’s AI team internally known as Seed, took place just after Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model sparked alarms in the U.S. that Chinese models were narrowing the gap at a pace quicker than previously expected.

In the weeks since, a senior White House official has accused Kimi K3 of achieving better performance by distilling U.S. frontier models. (Distillation is the process of training a new model using outputs from existing, most advanced models.)

The caution against distillation stems from the company’s experiences with TikTok, which the U.S. government threatened to ban multiple times over national security concerns, according to one of the employees and another person with knowledge of ByteDance’s internal discussions.

TikTok’s existential crisis was resolved last year after a deal was reached to sell the vast majority of TikTok’s U.S. data security operation to a group of U.S.-led investors. But ByteDance continues to run the commercial operations of TikTok globally, including the U.S. And the company worries that distilling U.S. frontier models would set off a new wave of scrutiny from Washington and pose new threats to TikTok, according to the employee and the person with knowledge of ByteDance’s internal discussions.

Zhang, who rarely spoke at the Seed team’s previous meetings, broke his silence after other leaders talked about why the company won’t use distillation to get ahead. ByteDance “should be willing to sacrifice some short-term gains for longer-term goals,” Zhang said, without elaborating what the long-term goals are, according to the employees.

ByteDance’s reluctance to use distillation has been seen as a reason for why its large language models are trailing other AI labs in China, including Alibaba and upstarts like DeepSeek, Z.ai and Moonshot, according to the employees. In contrast, ByteDance is widely recognized as a global leader in AI video generation models, following the success of its Seedance 2.0 model, which made shockwaves earlier this year for its ability to produce hyperrealistic videos.

ByteDance has increasingly become an oddity in China’s AI landscape, partly because the social media giant is the only major Chinese AI firm whose LLMs are almost all proprietary models, while its peers focus on open-source models.

ByteDance’s flagship LLMs are not always included in major global LLM leaderboards, a common window for outsiders to track model capabilities. Customers access ByteDance’s models mainly through the company’s cloud computing platform, which has a smaller market share in China than industry leaders Alibaba, Huawei and Tencent. This makes it difficult for non-customers to gauge how good ByteDance’s models are.

ByteDance’s latest LLM, Seed 2.1 Pro, is not seen on Artificial Analysis, the most widely followed leaderboard. The model ranks No. 19 on Arena AI’s coding leaderboard for web development, far below other Chinese models.

Inside ByteDance’s Seed team, there have long been ongoing debates about whether the company should turn to distillation, according to the ByteDance employees.

This year, rapid advancements of open-source models from domestic rivals have created more pressure for ByteDance. Every time a new powerful Chinese open-source model dropped, ByteDance’s internal debates about distillation heated up, according to the employees.

Distillation has become a sensitive and highly controversial topic due to the intensifying AI rivalry between the U.S. and China. Trump administration officials have long criticized Chinese AI developers for allegedly using distillation to copy the capabilities of leading models from Anthropic and OpenAI.

Anthropic has accused many Chinese AI firms—DeepSeek, Moonshot, MiniMax, Z.ai and Alibaba—of illicitly extracting Claude’s capabilities through large-scale distillation to improve their own models. Anthropic, however, hasn’t made such an accusation against ByteDance. The accused Chinese firms haven’t publicly commented about the distillation allegations.

To be sure, developers in the U.S. have also credited the Chinese AI firms with making their own technical advances to improve their models. Distillation alone cannot explain the strong performance of China’s best open-source models such as Moonshot’s Kimi K3, which rivals the best U.S. models on some benchmarks, they said. DeepSeek, for example, is widely recognized for its architectural innovations that drastically lower memory requirements during model training and inference.

But researchers at Chinese AI firms also acknowledge that distillation does bring significant advantages. It saves a lot of training time and computation overhead because a new model under development can learn directly from the reasoning steps of an existing frontier model, instead of relying solely on raw and curated training data, they say.

WSJ : Google Overhauls AI Leadership as Longtime Chief Scientist Joins Wave of E

Google Overhauls AI Leadership as Longtime Chief Scientist Joins Wave of Exits
Demis Hassabis becomes chairman of Google DeepMind while Jeff Dean leaves to launch AI-discovery startup

  • Demis Hassabis will become chairman of Google DeepMind. Koray Kavukcuoglu is taking on responsibility for all AI-model development.
  • Jeff Dean is leaving Google to launch Discovery Loop, an artificial-intelligence startup focused on automating scientific research.
  • Google veterans Oriol Vinyals, Quoc Le and Sanjay Ghemawat are leaving Google to join Jeff Dean at Discovery Loop.

Google announced new leadership of its artificial-intelligence operations Wednesday, a shake-up that follows a wave of high-profile departures and delays in releasing a model on par with top offerings from Anthropic and OpenAI.

Demis Hassabis is stepping down as chief executive of Google DeepMind to become chairman and chief scientist, Google CEO Sundar Pichai said in a post on X. Google DeepMind technology chief Koray Kavukcuoglu is taking on responsibility for all AI-model development, and Jeff Dean, Google’s current chief scientist, is leaving with three other company veterans to co-found a new AI startup.

Google’s early investments in AI research and infrastructure—which stretch back more than a decade—and its massive base of consumer and enterprise users haven’t translated into a consistently dominant position in the market for the new technology. The company vaulted ahead in the race to develop powerful frontier AI models with an updated version of Gemini last fall. Since then, it has struggled to keep pace with competitors’ capability advances as measured by widely used benchmark tests.

“We have to continue to move fast with clear purpose here,” Pichai said in a blog post about the leadership changes. “We are committed to being at the frontier and are super focused on the areas where we need to improve.”

In addition to Dean’s departure, the company has also lost other top talent. Noam Shazeer, co-author of a 2017 paper on transformer architecture that galvanized AI development, and John Jumper, who shared in the AlphaFold Nobel Prize in 2024, both left in recent months for OpenAI and Anthropic, respectively. Meanwhile, Google still hasn’t released its newest frontier model, Gemini 3.5 Pro.

Investors have shown signs of impatience, sending its shares down 7% two weeks ago after the company said it would boost AI spending without giving an update on when the new model would be released. Google’s stock recovered, but on Wednesday, it dropped almost 4% after the leadership changes were announced.

In addition to his new chairman role, Hassabis will continue to lead Isomorphic Labs, an AI drug discovery startup that was spun out of Google DeepMind and is under Google’s parent company Alphabet GOOGL -3.98%decrease; red down pointing triangle.

Dean, who joined Google as its 30th employee in 1999, will be CEO at a new public-benefit corporation called Discovery Loop that aims to accelerate technology by automating complicated, multistep science and engineering tasks.

Joining Dean in the endeavor are fellow Google veterans Oriol Vinyals, Quoc Le and Sanjay Ghemawat, who between them account for high-profile advances in mathematics and protein structure and are some of the most cited researchers in the world.

The startup will initially focus on automating the process of machine-learning research and engineering via its own internal technology stack. Eventually, it plans to apply its technology to a variety of areas, including hardware design, drug discovery and global challenges such as clean energy, according to a news release.

“We think by automating many of the classical experimental-loop aspects with machine-learning models, augmenting human scientists and engineers, we’ll be able to make it possible to explore more space in broad science areas to accelerate discovery,” Dean said in an interview at his Palo Alto, Calif., home Tuesday.

Alphabet is providing cloud and computing capacity to Discovery Loop and is an investor in the company, the news release said. Radical Ventures and Khosla Ventures are co-leading its seed round. The round isn’t closed, and the startup declined to share its valuation.

Dean said he began seriously contemplating the startup five weeks ago and contacted Vinyals, a longtime colleague and main contributor to AlphaFold, a famous AI program that predicts protein structures and that won the Nobel Prize in 2024. They then connected with Le and Ghemawat and started discussing building the infrastructure to allow more kinds of science to be automated and what would be needed to do that.

The four have known each other for more than a decade. Dean co-founded Google Brain, the company’s pioneering AI deep-learning research team, in 2011. Le was a founding member of Google Brain and Vinyals joined it two years later.

Ghemawat was also an early Google employee. Alongside Dean, he helped create Google’s distributed systems in the early 2000s, and in 2012 he and Dean were recognized by the Association for Computing Machinery for their efforts.

The scientists decided they needed to leave Google to pursue their new mission.

“We wanted to build something differently than how things are built at Google right now,” Ghemawat said, explaining that Google’s infrastructure works well for big consumer apps, large ad systems and search. But, he said, it has “very different requirements than the type of infrastructure we want to build for research.”

Pichai said that Dean and Ghemawat helped drive some of the company’s most significant technology transitions over their 27-year tenure and that he wished them the best.

News Corp, owner of The Wall Street Journal, has a commercial agreement to supply content on Google platforms.

FT : Bodycote gets twin private equity bids as buyers feast on London market Sep

Bodycote gets twin private equity bids as buyers feast on London market
Separate offers from CVC and Veritas value FTSE 250 industrials group at about £1.8bn including debt

The UK industrials group Bodycote has received two near-identical takeover bids from private equity groups and said it would work to secure a deal with either party.

The European investment group CVC has proposed an offer of up to 915p per share for the London-listed components business, while US buyout firm Veritas has offered up to 914p.

The bids value the company’s equity at almost £1.6bn or close to £1.8bn when debt is taken into account.

Bodycote’s board has reviewed both bids and would be “minded to recommend” each of them should they materialise into a firm offer, the company said in a statement.

“The board is working separately with CVC and Veritas on an expedited basis to announce with either party a firm intention to make an offer,” Bodycote added.

The offers increase the chances that Bodycote is taken private off the London market amid a flurry of deals for UK companies.

UK ministers and executives have been fretting about the health of London’s stock market, which has failed to attract new listings to replace a series of companies that have agreed to foreign takeovers.

Property group Segro, testing company Intertek, asset manager Schroders and insurer Beazley are among the large London-listed companies that have agreed to deals. 

The value of UK-listed groups being acquired rose 188 per cent in the first seven months of the year, according to LSEG data, the highest level year to date since at least 2007.

The US investor Apollo had previously neared a £1.5bn deal for Bodycote — at about £8.85 per share — before dropping its offer in June.

The FTSE 250 company offers services including heat treatment for manufacturing, metal joining and the application of protective metallic coatings. 

Shares in Bodycote gained more than 22 per cent on Wednesday after the news to trade at close to £9.20 per share.

The dearth of recent UK initial public offerings has prompted regulators to introduce a string of reforms aimed at improving London’s attractiveness as a location for IPOs.

On Wednesday, the Financial Conduct Authority said it would simplify listing rules further by removing a seven-day waiting period before research by firms connected to the listing company can be published.

The regulator said last week it would start publishing new figures designed to better show the amount of trading in London-listed shares and dispel worries about the lack of depth in UK equity markets.

The moves followed an easing of rules this year for share and bond listings, along with a three-year stamp duty holiday on shares of newly listed companies, which were also designed to boost London’s appeal as an IPO destination.

“We want the UK market to be an attractive place for companies to raise capital and grow,” said Jon Relleen, director of infrastructure and exchanges at the FCA. “By making the UK listing regime more efficient, we are supporting the growth and competitiveness of UK capital markets.”

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 5th of Aug 2026

>>> Up
* Elia Group Raised to Buy at UBS; PT 147 euros
* EQT Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 385 kronor
* Nexans Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 183 euros
* Pandora Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 1,000 kroner
* Supermarket Income REIT Raised to Buy at Peel Hunt; PT 100 pence
* Technogym Raised to Buy at UBS; PT 21.30 euros

>>> Down
* BBVA Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 23.65 euros
* Danske Bank Cut to Neutral at SB1 Markets; PT 400 kroner
* Erste Bank Polska Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 755 zloty
* Ferretti Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT 3.15 euros
* HSBC Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 1,570 pence
* HSBC Cut to Sell at Shore Capital; PT 1,335 pence
* QPR Software Cut to Sell at Inderes; PT 45 euro cents
* Rotork Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT 503 pence
* SEB Cut to Neutral at SB1 Markets; PT 235 kronor

>>> Initiation
* 2G Energy Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT 82 euros
* Alphabet Reinstated Buy at William O'Neil
* Argenx ADRs Resumed Buy at Guggenheim; PT $1,185
* Arteche Lantegi Elkartea Rated New Overweight at Cantor
* Assystem Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT 52 euros
* Bohus Rated New Buy at ABG; PT 47 kroner
* Burckhardt Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT 640 Swiss francs
* Coherent Corp Rated New Outperform at GuoSen
* GTT Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT 238 euros
* OHB SE Rated New Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT 360 euros
* OHB SE Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT 250 euros
* OHB SE Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT 280 euros
* OHB SE Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 358 euros
* Rolls-Royce Reinstated Buy at William O'Neil
* Savox Communications Rated New Buy at Nordea; PT 12 euros

>>> Call

>>> What to look at today - 5th of Aug 2026

Global stocks climbed to a record as investors renewed bets on the artificial intelligence trade, driving gains in chipmakers. Oil and the dollar fell on the prospect of an interim US-Iran deal. MSCI’s All Country World Index rose 0.4%, set for another all-time high close, as its Asia Pacific benchmark climbed 2.2%. Australian shares also hit a new peak. The advances came after the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both closed at all-time highs Tuesday. Equity-index futures indicated further gains for US and European benchmarks. Chip stocks remained in focus, with chip major SK Hynix Inc. climbing 6.4% in Seoul. Nvidia Corp. advanced more than 2% in post-market trading after Elon Musk touted the company’s Vera Rubin chips. However, a cautious tone lingered as SpaceX shares fell 7.5% in extended trading after the company projected higher-than-expected spending on its AI business. Advanced Micro Devices Inc. dropped 9% after giving an underwhelming sales outlook. Brent crude fell 1.1% to about $78.50 a barrel after Axios reported that Washington, Tehran and Oman were nearing an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with a Wednesday announcement targeted. Treasuries advanced along with gold as traders curbed expectations for interest-rate hikes. Robust earnings from technology megacaps have helped restore investor confidence after a month of volatility in AI stocks that erased gains at several hedge funds. Traders are also watching whether progress toward reopening the key Middle East shipping route extends the recent decline in oil prices, easing inflation pressures and tempering expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes. The MSCI World Semiconductor Index had tumbled more than 20% from its peak in June, driven by worries around the sustainability of AI spending boom and progress in China’s advanced chipmaking. The gauge has rebounded 15% since then, taking its gains this year to 42%. Earlier, a US chips gauge posted its strongest four-day gain since 2020. Technology stocks are coming back because the three pressures behind the recent selloff — AI spending concerns, higher bond yields and the increase in oil prices — are all easing at the same time, said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets in Singapore. Strong earnings are reassuring investors that AI demand remains intact, while lower oil and bond yields are taking pressure off valuations, she said. Hopes of a new deal between Iran and the US are rising. Qatar says a proposal has been drafted. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says there could be a deal Tuesday or Wednesday to open the Strait of Hormuz. Bloomberg’s Jeff Mason has more. Still, “it’s not an all-clear, especially as returns on AI capex still need to be proven,” Chanana said. “But after leverage and crowded positioning were flushed out, even modest relief can produce an outsized rebound.” Treasuries extended gains from the New York session as signs of progress toward a diplomatic resolution of the Iran war sent oil prices lower. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury edged down one basis point to 4.60%.  The dollar, the haven of choice during the Middle East conflict, weakened against most of its Group-of-10 peers. A Bloomberg gauge of the currency’s strength fell 0.1%, a third day of losses. Gold, silver and platinum all rose as the non interest-bearing precious metals benefit when interest rates are not increased. Bullion rose 1.2% to about $4,125 an ounce. Back to geopolitical news, a deal between the US and Iran may help normalize commercial shipping in the strait — a crucial conduit for global energy supplies — and prevent the resumption of fighting in the Middle East.  Qatar said a proposal had been drafted, while US and Iranian officials expressed optimism about an agreement to reopen the crucial waterway, weighing on oil prices. US After Hours BKNG +5.9%, APPS +21.7%, QLYS +13.6%, INTA +12.5%, ANET +10.4% higher on earnings; SPCX -7.6%, AMD -8.5%, PINS -8.5% lower on earnings; SGHT +11.2% on FDA 510(k) clearance.

Nikkei +3.08% Hang Seng +0.11% CSI +0.99% Kospi +4.15% Shanghai +1.34% Shenzen +2.31%

Eur$ 1.1538 CNH 6.7463 CNY 6.7476 JPY 157.54 GBP 1.3458 CHF 0.8079 RUB 80.8314 TRY 47.5746 WTI$ 74.94 -1.08% Gold 4,135 +1.04% BTC 64,131 -0.26% ETH 1,866 -0.48%

S&P +0.40% Nasdaq +0.30% EuroStoxx +0.46% FTSE +0.20% Dax +0.62% SMI +0.19%

Macro :
- Chanel Sales Jump 16% as New Collections Boost Label’s Appeal
- Trump Says Iran Talks Going Well as Hopes Rise for Hormuz Deal

Keep an eye on :
- AD NA : Ahold Delhaize 2Q Adjusted Operating Margin Beats Estimates
- AMD US : AMD Falls After 2Q Revenue, 3Q Outlooks Underwhelm
- ANA SM : Acciona’s Family Shareholders Hold First Selldown: ECM Watch
- AMGN US : Amgen Lifts Outlook After Blockbuster Sales Top Expectations
- ANTIN FP : JPMorgan Said to Near Deal for Antin’s Cooling Network Provider
- ARWR US : Arrowhead Pharma 3Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- BSL GY : Basler Reports 1H Sales of EUR 152.4 Million, Compared With FactSet Consensus Estimates of EUR 153 Million (1 Est.)
- CE US : Celanese 3Q Adjusted EPS Forecast Misses Estimates
- CC US : Chemours Shares Drop as 2Q EPS, Revenue Miss Estimates
- CE US : Credito Emiliano 2Q Net Income Beats Estimates
- DHL GY : Deutsche Post 2Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- DIS US : Hearst to Buy Disney’s 50% Stake in A+E for ~$1.2b in Cash
- ZIL2 GY : ElringKlinger 2Q Ebit EU28.9M
- EQT SS : EQT’s First Bet From €5 Billion EU Fund is Space Startup Iceye
- EMR US : Emerson Electric 3Q Adjusted EPS Beats Estimates
- FBIN US : Fortune Brands Boosts FY Adjusted EPS Forecast, Beats Estimates
- FRE GY : Fresenius SE 2Q Net Income Excluding Items EU470M
- GILD US : Gilead Sales Beat Expectations on Strong HIV Prevention Growth
- HEIA NA : Heineken 2Q Total Organic Volume Beats Estimates (2)
- IFX GY : Infineon Revenue Forecast Beats as AI Power Chip Demand Rises
- ICOS IM : Intercos 1H Revenue EU512.5M
- ITP FP : Interparfums 2Q Net Sales Meet Estimates
- IPI US : Intrepid Potash 2Q Potash Sales $30.6M Vs. $34.0M Y/y
- KCO GY : Kloeckner Sees FY Adjusted Ebitda EU170M to EU250M
- LSCC US : Lattice Semi 2Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- LNZ AV : Lenzing 1H Ebitda EU239.2M Vs. EU268.6M Y/y
- LCID US : Lucid Shares Sink, Adjusted Ebitda Loss Worse Than Expecte, Lucid CEO Says ‘Tough Medicine’ Needed to Fix Troubled EV Maker
- MTCH US : Match Group 2Q Revenue Meets Estimates
- MAT US : Mattel 2Q Adjusted EPS Misses Estimates
- MAU FP : Gran Tierra to Sells Assets to Maurel & Prom for $1.33b Value
- MOS US : Mosaic Sees 3Q Phosphates Sales Volumes 1.1M to 1.4M Tonnes
- NOVOB DC : Novo Nordisk Boosts FY Adj. Sales at Cer Forecast
- NVDA US : Nvidia Gains After Musk Touts SpaceX Computing Plans
- ORRON SS : Orron Energy 2Q Revenue EU3.3M
- PSKY US : Paramount Sees FY Adjusted Ebitda $3.80B to $3.90B
- PEN LN : Pennant Buys River Centre Assisted Living in Tucson, Arizona
- PG US : Procter & Gamble to Buy Thorne for $3.8 Billion in Cash
- SDZ SW : Sandoz Group 2Q Net Sales Meet Estimates
- SHA0 GY : Schaeffler 2Q Adjusted Ebit Meets Estimates Schaeffler Expands Partial Retirement Offer in Germany
- ENR GY : Siemens Energy Forecasts FY Results, Siemens Energy Targets Top End of Outlook Range on Record Orders
- SPCX US : SpaceX Shares Drop After AI Drives Spending Higher
- SPCX US : SpaceX Flags Big Ambitions to Take On AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile
- TRVG US : Trivago 2Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- VSAT US : Viasat Shares Drop After 1Q Revenue Misses Estimates
- VOE AV : Voestalpine 1Q Ebitda Beats Estimates
- VNA GY : Vonovia 1H Adjusted Ebitda EU1.46B Vs. EU1.42B Y/y

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Fresenius SE (FRE TH) +3.7%
    • Fresenius Lifts Earnings Outlook on Hospitals, Drug Strength (1)
  • Elia Group (E4S TH) +2.3%
    • Elia Group Raised to Buy at UBS; PT 147 euros
  • Aixtron (AIXA TH) +1.7%
  • Stellantis (8TI TH) +1.6%
  • ASML (ASME TH) +1.4%
  • Moncler (MOV TH) +1.2%
  • Prysmian (AEU TH) +1.2%
  • BE Semiconductor (BSI TH) +1.1%
  • Deutsche Post (DHL TH) +1%
    • Deutsche Post 2Q Revenue Beats Estimates
  • K+S (SDF TH) -1.7%
  • HSBC (HBC1 TH) -2.1%
  • Sabadell (BDSB TH) -2.1%
  • Novo Nordisk (NOV TH) -6%
    • Novo Nordisk ADRs Drop as 2Q Results Called ‘Messy’: Street Wrap

>>> TradeGAte Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Fresenius SE (FRE TH) +4.6%
    • Fresenius Lifts Earnings Outlook on Hospitals, Drug Strength (1)
  • Siemens Energy (ENR TH) +4.1%
    • Siemens Energy Targets Top End of Outlook Range on Record Orders
  • Infineon (IFX TH) +1.1%
    • *INFINEON SEES 4Q SEGMENT RESULT MARGIN ABOUT 23%, EST. 23.7%
MDAX:
  • Wacker Chemie (WCH TH) +2.8%
    • US Weighs Price Floor, Tariffs on Polysilicon: Reuters
  • Aixtron (AIXA TH) +1.7%
  • Schaeffler (SHA0 TH) -0.7%
    • Schaeffler 2Q Adjusted Ebit Meets Estimates
SDAX:
  • No major mover

The Information : Why a SpaceX-Tesla Merger Could Benefit Shareholders in Both C

Why a SpaceX-Tesla Merger Could Benefit Shareholders in Both Companies

The Takeaway
  • Merger could benefit shareholders by consolidating Musk’s focus.
  • SpaceX and Tesla share similar valuations, easing potential merger.
  • Combined entity faces significant cash burn and debt challenges.

In 2016, Elon Musk defended Tesla’s proposed acquisition of SolarCity, a solar energy firm co-founded and run by his first cousins, by calling it a “no-brainer.” As it turned out, the purported benefits of the $2.6 billion deal, which brought a cash-burning, debt-laden firm under the Tesla umbrella, never materialized, and SolarCity lost market share in the years that followed.

Observers of Musk today might worry he is on the precipice of facilitating another ill-fated union, this time of his two crown jewel companies, newly public rocket ship and satellite internet company SpaceX and electric vehicle maker Tesla. But that merger would be far more defensible than the SolarCity deal was at the time.

A merger would likely benefit shareholders of both firms by resolving some of the conflicts associated with Musk running them separately, and by easing intercompany dealings that already occur. Even so, there are risks around the capital-intensive expansion both companies are planning in the coming years.

The idea that SpaceX might buy Tesla gained steam two weeks ago on the company’s earnings call, after Musk coyly declined to answer a Wall Street analyst’s question about the prospect. While he acknowledged the increasing overlap between the two firms, including their planned joint venture to build a massive semiconductor fabrication plant known as Terafab, which Musk announced in March, he said a combination would need to go through an “appropriate process.”

A combined SpaceX-Tesla would have three main businesses, the largest of which would be Tesla’s automotive unit, which sells electric cars as well as services for those vehicles, such as maintenance and insurance. That segment generated $82 billion in revenue in 2025, 86% of Tesla’s top line. The rest of Tesla’s revenue comes from its fast-growing energy generation business, which includes solar panels and batteries.

SpaceX’s largest business is the Starlink satellite internet unit, which in 2025 generated $11.3 billion in revenue, 61% of SpaceX’s total that year. SpaceX is best known for its rocket-launching unit, which generated $4 billion in sales in 2025, and its xAI business, which houses social media platform X and the company’s AI data centers. Those centers are increasingly operating as a cloud firm. AI contributed 17% of SpaceX’s top line last year, although that’s likely to be higher now that SpaceX has started renting out its data center capacity to other companies. (SpaceX is also planning to buy coding firm Cursor for $60 billion, but the deal hasn’t yet closed.)


Musk promotes both companies by emphasizing his aspirations for them: He hopes to make Tesla a major manufacturer of humanoid robots as well as a robotaxi service provider. The company is still developing the robots, however, while its robotaxis are nascent and well behind those of industry leader Waymo. SpaceX’s future rests on getting its giant Starship rocket into commercial service, building data centers in space and traveling to the moon or Mars to build alternative civilizations.

Perhaps the most important benefit for investors in both companies is that a merger would unite two businesses run by the same person that already work together in various ways. Musk moves engineers and executives between his companies freely, and they share technology: For instance, Grok’s models, part of SpaceX’s xAI segment, are now available to Tesla drivers in their vehicles. A merger would resolve any concerns shareholders might have about the business dealings between the two companies and whether those deals are fair to both.

“If you are either a SpaceX or a Tesla investor, chances are you’re just a big believer in Elon, and no matter how you look at it, the other company is a major distraction for Elon from your perspective,” said investor Hamid Shojaee, who first bought Tesla stock in 2015 and cashed out after making a profit a few years ago. “The companies could benefit from being a single company that is run by Elon, with all of his focus being on the one as opposed to divided between the two.”

Ross Gerber, who helms wealth management firm Gerber Kawasaki and is a shareholder in both companies, said combining the different businesses would make it easier for them to buy and sell products and services to each other.

“So if I’m Tesla, I’m basically buying my compute from xAI, and as this gets more and more integrated into the car, essentially the entire operating system of the robots and the cars will be run by another company,” he said.

Big Believer

Then there’s valuation. A deal might have been more complicated in the days just after SpaceX first went public, when it reached a share price of $211, making its equity worth around $2.8 trillion—more than twice that of Tesla at the time, even though Tesla’s revenue last year was more than double SpaceX’s.

Since then, though, SpaceX stock has slid 15% from its initial public offering price, reducing its market capitalization to $1.5 trillion, just a little above Tesla, which is at roughly $1.3 trillion. Both companies are hugely overvalued, to be sure, but they currently trade at broadly similar forward price-to-earnings multiples, with SpaceX at 190 times and Tesla at 167 times, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. That makes a combination easier than if only one was hugely overvalued.

Still, it is tough to nail down what kind of multiple is appropriate for each company individually, given the big unknowns each faces in future businesses such as Tesla’s hoped-for humanoid robot operation. At SpaceX, the future of the AI unit is especially unclear, while Starlink and its rocket launch business depend on SpaceX’s success in getting Starship into commercial service. The giant rocket is still in the testing phase.

SpaceX’s upcoming earnings report today will provide a fresh crop of data that could trigger movement in its share price, changing the financial logic of whether a deal makes sense. SpaceX is likely to be the acquirer, as Musk has supervoting shares in the rocket company—unlike with Tesla—which ensures he could maintain control of the combined company.

One big issue is that both companies are burning cash as they invest in new technology. While Tesla generated $6.2 billion in free cash flow in 2025, its free cash flow swung negative in the second quarter and will likely stay in that territory for the foreseeable future as the company invests heavily in robotaxi technology. Executives project Tesla will spend at least $25 billion in capital expenditures this year. There’s also the issue that SpaceX has nearly $7 billion in net debt, while Tesla has $27 billion, so a merger wouldn’t improve either company’s immediate cash position.

And the combined company would have enormous cash needs in the future, in areas like planned chip manufacturing and AI operations. “He’s building these massive data centers that will be worth a lot of money, but the problem with that is he’s got to invest, like, all of SpaceX’s capital into this because he’s competing with Amazon, Google and Microsoft,” Gerber said.

On the other hand, the larger combined companies might be more easily able to borrow money in the debt markets and at a lower interest rate, said one credit executive.

“It’s really a one plus one equals three scenario from a credit perspective, as the risk of default and loss given default are so low compared to other BBB-rated credits, which would generate significant demand,” said Prath Reddy, CEO of private credit marketplace Percent. “Not only would it be easy for them to raise debt, but oversubscribed demand would likely also secure favorable pricing.”

What Could Go Wrong

Still, there’s always the risk that those synergies aren’t substantial enough to offset the cash burn of the two companies as SpaceX doubles down on constructing data centers. There’s also a risk that geopolitics will torpedo the deal.

A report last week from The Wall Street Journal said Musk was instructing Tesla executives to prepare to separate its China business, heading off any potential regulatory hurdles that could throw a wrench in an eventual merger. Musk took to X to deny he was considering jettisoning the China business.

That denial may well be because for some investors, including Gerber, divesting from China would simply exact too steep a price. China contributed 18% of Tesla’s top line in the first half of 2026, and the country plays an important role in Tesla’s supply chain, housing some of its most productive, lowest-cost factories.

Divesting the China unit “guts the heart of Tesla’s revenue-profit engine,” Gerber said.

If that outcome can be avoided, though, a tie-up looks pretty attractive, if for no other reason than to consolidate Musk’s attention and effort on one entity in which investors share both risk and upside.