>>> DuPont beats by $0.02, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS below consensus,

DuPont beats by $0.02, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS below consensus, revs in-line; guides FY24 EPS in-line, revs in-line; new $1 bln buyback with a $500 mln ASR; ups dividend 6% (61.21)
  • Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.87 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.02 better than the FactSet Consensus of $0.85; revenues fell 6.6% year/year to $2.9 bln vs the $2.92 bln FactSet Consensus.
  • Co issues guidance for Q1, sees EPS of $0.63-0.65, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.67 FactSet Consensus; sees Q1 revs of ~$2.8 bln vs. $2.85 bln FactSet Consensus.
  • "We expect sequential sales improvement and an approximate ten percent increase in operating EBITDA in the second quarter of 2024 from first quarter driven by some inventory destocking abatement, seasonality factors and realization of cost savings."
  • "Our current expectation for full year 2024 forecasts a return to year-over-year sales and earnings growth in the second half driven by anticipated electronics market recovery, including improvement in semiconductor fab utilization rates, as well as improved orders within industrial markets as customer inventory levels normalize"
  • Co issues in-line guidance for FY24, sees EPS of $3.25-3.65, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $3.58 FactSet Consensus; sees FY24 revs of $11.9-12.3 bln vs. $12.28 bln FactSet Consensus.
  • Additionally, DuPont announced that its Board of Directors approved a new share repurchase program authorizing the repurchase and retirement of up to $1 billion of common stock (the "$1B Program"). DuPont intends to enter into ASR transactions under the $1B Program beginning with an ASR transaction expected to be launched imminently to repurchase in aggregate $500 million of common stock. DuPont expects to complete the $1B Program by the end of 2024.
  • The Company today also announced that its Board of Directors has declared a first quarter dividend of $0.38 per share on its outstanding common stock, representing a 6% increase to its quarterly dividend, payable March 15, 2024, to holders of record at the close of business on February 29, 2024.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 6th of February 2024 V3(++)

>>> Up
* Chrysalis Investments Raised to Outperform at Peel Hunt (+)
* Holmen Raised to Buy at Handelsbanken (++)
* *ITM POWER RAISED TO BUY AT REDBURN ATLANTIC (++)
* Legrand Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT 85 euros
* MorphoSys Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT 68 euros
* MorphoSys Raised to Neutral at Kempen & Co (+)
* Newron Pharma Raised to Buy at Baader Helvea
* Nordea Bank Raised to Buy at OP Corporate Bank; PT 13 euros (++)
* Palantir Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT $22
* Sainsbury Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 310 pence
* Salzgitter Raised to Buy at Bankhaus Metzler; PT 32.50 euros (+)
* Schindler Raised to Buy at SocGen; PT 245 Swiss francs
* SKF Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 215 kronor
* Tyson PT Raised to $55 from $48 at Piper Sandler
* Vodafone Raised to Hold at DZ Bank; PT 70 pence (+)
* Zurich Airport Raised to Buy at BofA; PT 212 Swiss francs (++)

>>> Down
* Acciona Energia Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT 24 euros
* Ahold Delhaize Cut to Reduce at HSBC; PT 23 euros
* Air Products PT Cut to $240 from $285 at Jefferies
* Alliance Pharma Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 42 pence (+)
* Bristol Myers Cut to Neutral at Redburn; PT $77
* Cherry Cut to Hold at Bankhaus Metzler; PT 2.40 euros (+)
* Chevron Cut to Hold at DZ Bank; PT $160 (+)
* Embraer ADRs Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $19
* Enento Group Cut to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 21 euros
* Entain Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 1,070 pence
* Golden Ocean Cut to Hold at DNB Markets; PT 121 kroner (++)
* LEG Immobilien Cut to Hold at M.M. Warburg (+)
* LVMH Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 860 euros
* Metro Cut to Reduce at HSBC; PT 5.50 euros
* Mithra Pharma Cut to Reduce at KBC Securities (++)
* Nel Cut to Sell at Arctic Securities; PT 4.50 kroner
* NEL CUT TO NEUTRAL AT REDBURN ATANTIC (++)
* ON Semi Cut to Neutral at Fubon; PT $85
* Princess Private Equity Cut to Hold at Stifel
* RWE Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 40 euros
* Solaria Energia Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 16 euros
* Springvest Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 5.50 euros
* Tesla Cut to Neutral at Daiwa; PT $195
* Valeo Pharma Cut to Speculative Buy at Paradigm Capital
* Vodafone Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 74 pence (+)

>>> Initiation
* Befesa Rated New Buy at Hauck & Aufhaeuser; PT 46 euros (+)
* BE Semiconductor Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane
* Ceres Power Rated New Sell at Redburn (++)
* Georg Fischer Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 72 Swiss francs
* Pluxee France Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT 30.50 euros
* Pluxee France Rated New Buy at Citi; PT 38 euros
* SThree Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 550 pence
* Stif Rated New Buy at Greensome Finance; PT 12.73 euros (+)
* Thyssenkrupp Nucera Rated New Buy at Redburn (++)
* Vitec Software Group Assumed Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux (++)

>>> Call
* BP’s Extended Share Buybacks a ‘Welcome Positive’: RBC (+)
* Ceres Power Falls on New Sell at Redburn; Nel Dips on Double Cut (++)
* Citi’s Montagu Says Bullish Stock Flows Stall in Early February (+)
* Entain Cut at Barclays on Sluggish Online Growth, Balance Sheet (+)
* Georg Fischer New Buy at Berenberg on Uponor Consolidation Boost
* JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Sees Fewer Rate Cuts Than Markets Expect
* Legrand Raised to Hold at Jefferies Following Underperformance
* Sainsbury Gains as HSBC Upgrades to Buy, Labels Top Pick
* SKF Raised at Morgan Stanley on Reduced Margin Risks in 2024
* Sodexo-Spinoff Pluxee Rated New Buy; Citi Sets Street-High PT (+)
* Stadler Rail’s Saudi Order Deepens Regional Foothold: Citi (+)

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers
  • Gapping up:
    • PLTR +17.6%, COHR +9.7%, VRNS +7.2%, CHX +6.3%, BP +5.2%, VLRS +5%, PINC +5%, AUDC +4.3%, TM +3.7%, BRBR +2.6%, NXPI +2.5%, NTCO +2%, MOR +1.9%, ACM +1.6%, VRTX +1.5%, SKY +1.3%, CBT +1.3%, LIN +1.3%, INGR +1.3%, SPCE +1.2%, WTW +1.1%, GBDC +1%, SPG +0.9%, HIMX +0.9%, INCY +0.8%
  • Gapping down:
    • SYM -18.6%, FMC -15.4%, CCK -12.8%, FN -11.9%, KE -10.2%, RMBS -9.9%, CHGG -7.5%, UFPI -7%, JJSF -7%, IRS -6.6%, AMKR -6.5%, SSD -3.7%, HESM -3.5%, UBS -3.5%, CHKP -3%, HI -2.1%, IT -2.1%, FDMT -1.4%, ST -1%

FT : Toyota raises profit forecast as hybrid sales soar

Toyota raises profit forecast as hybrid sales soar
World’s biggest automaker’s bet on technology justified by a nearly 50% increase in hybrid-electric car sales in latest quarter

Rising sales of hybrid cars helped Toyota beat estimates in the third quarter as the world’s largest automaker raised full-year profit forecasts and provided further vindication of its bet on the technology.

The Japanese company increased its operating profit forecast for the year to March to ¥4.9tn ($34bn) from ¥4.5tn and said that profit in its fiscal third quarter hit ¥1.7tn, an increase from ¥957bn a year earlier. The results beat analyst expectations, according to LSEG data, and sent its shares up 4.8 per cent by the close in Tokyo.

The carmaker said the increase was mostly owing “to marketing efforts as sales volume increased in all regions”, especially for higher margin and hybrid electric vehicles, while the weak yen provided an additional benefit. 

“In all regions, the share of hybrid sales has gone up, so as a realistic solution hybrids are still favoured by our customers,” Toyota’s chief financial officer Yoichi Miyazaki told journalists.

“Last year, hybrid vehicles sold 3.4mn to 3.5mn units. In 2022, I think it stood at 2.6mn or so. So within the year, there has been an increase of slightly less than 1mn in demand for hybrids globally. And I think demand is likely to reach 5mn units by around 2025,” he said.

In the third quarter, hybrid sales increased 47 per cent year on year to 951,000, as total vehicle sales rose 10 per cent.

The buoyant sales of hybrid electric vehicles counter concerns from some analysts that Toyota is not moving fast enough towards pure battery-electric vehicles (BEVs). It plans to sell 3.5mn of the EVs annually from 2030 but sold only 104,000 BEVs in the 2023 calendar year.

The increase in hybrid demand “vindicates their bet on the technology. However, the risk is if EV demand picks up quickly, through mass-market production for example, Toyota might not be ready to take advantage. But clearly, Toyota is now in a sweet spot,” said James Hong, auto analyst at Macquarie

“Many [original equipment manufacturers], such as GM, are making the same kind of bet on hybrids now, as BEV growth declines and CO₂ targets from regulators remain in place,” said Thomas Besson, head of automotive research at Kepler Cheuvreux.

The Toyota group — which retained its crown as the world’s largest carmaker last year, selling a record 11.2mn passenger vehicles when including its subsidiaries — has long been committed to “a multi-pathway approach” that relies on a wide variety of cars being sold across more than 170 countries, where BEVs will remain unaffordable for years to come.

Last month, its chair Akio Toyoda said he saw BEV penetration topping out at 30 per cent and the level of adoption was “something that customers and the market will decide, not regulations ​​or political power”. The remaining 70 per cent of vehicles would be hybrids, hydrogen-powered or have traditional petrol engines, he added. 

Toyota is currently battling a spate of data scandals at some of its closest affiliates, including Daihatsu, which has led to it slightly lowering sales estimates for Japan. 

Toyoda said last week he would personally “take action” and attend the annual meetings of affiliates this summer where he would be judging them on what actions they had taken. The group would also examine the pace of new projects and development in light of the scandals, some of which were brought about by too much pressure on the affiliates.

FT : Chinese equities rebound on hopes of support from Beijing

Chinese equities rebound on hopes of support from Beijing
Regulators release a series of announcements in a bid to stabilise markets

Chinese equities staged a rebound on Tuesday as state funds vowed to step up share purchases, spurring investor hopes that Beijing might be ready to offer more support to put a floor under months of sliding prices.

Shares began climbing after Central Huijin, an investment arm of China’s sovereign wealth fund, said it would expand its purchases of exchange traded funds.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission also said it would encourage institutional investors to hold A-shares for a longer period of time, as it worked to stabilise a sell-off that has wiped out almost $2tn in market capitalisation from a 2021 peak.

The CSRC said it would punish “malicious” short selling and stop “illegal behaviour” that hindered stable stock market operations. It further barred securities lending and short selling in a separate notice. It also vowed on Monday to closely monitor the risk of forced liquidations on pledged shares.

The onshore benchmark Chinese stock index CSI300 closed 3.2 per cent higher on Tuesday. The broader CSI500 index and its small-cap counterpart CSI1000 index both closed about 7 per cent higher following Central Huijin’s announcement.

The Hang Seng index closed 4 per cent higher, its biggest rise since July 25, while the Hang Seng Tech index closed with gains of 6.8 per cent.

The sell-off in China’s stock markets has underlined the lack of confidence surrounding the economic outlook for the world’s second-largest economy, after months of weak consumer demand and indicators suggesting that industrial activity was struggling to rebound.

Despite previous efforts from Beijing to shore up the market and extensive trading restrictions for short coverings, Chinese markets recorded a brutal start in 2024. Last week, the CSI300 plunged 4.6 per cent to close at a five-year low on Friday. 

Retail investors, who bought into some Rmb300bn worth of derivatives called “snowballs” tied to small-cap stock indices such as the CSI1000, suffered huge losses after the recent rout.

More than 100 listed companies have topped up cash or collateral in the margin trading accounts as they faced forced selling of stocks, said the market regulator on Monday.

“The market grapples with complexity amid a distressed property sector, fiscal constraints of local governments, and a lack of confidence in the private sector,” said Redmond Wong, chief China strategist at Saxo Markets.

Despite the erosion of confidence in Chinese equities, Beijing has taken incremental steps to shore up sentiment and has held back from a significant intervention or stimulus package.

“The market has such a deep confidence issue that we need more dramatic and direct support, such as having the national team taking the lead in buying up the market,” said Wang Qi, chief investment officer for wealth management at UOB Kay Hian in Hong Kong. “The government can’t expect investors to buy in with such wishy-washy measures.” 

Wang added: “The longer the government waits, the higher the cost.”

Zhang Qi, analyst with Haitong Securities, said investors would need to see more from Beijing for a sustained rally.

“The key for reviving confidence still lies in the recovery of the economy,” he said, “investors need to see the rebound in consumption, exports, employment and incomes, the efforts cannot be made only from the statistics bureau.”

FT : More on the corporate credit boom

More on the corporate credit boom

The crowded corporate credit trade, part 2
Last week I looked at the boom in corporate credit and the accompanying tight credit spreads in high-yield and investment-grade bonds. I made the point by looking at spreads over Treasuries since the financial crisis, and noting that they’re in the bottom decile of tightness.

But it’s even more extreme than that. The chart below, courtesy of Marty Fridson of Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors, makes the point. Fridson models the relationship between HY spreads and other indicators, including Bloomberg consensus recession probability and the five-year Treasury yield, with data since the end of 1996. For example, the historical range of HY spreads that have coincided with today’s recession odds (40-50 per cent) is between 483bp and 1726bp. The median spread during 40-50 per cent recession odds is 795bp, compared with the current reading of 347bp. That pattern of uber-tightness holds across correlates. As the chart shows, by some measures today’s HY spreads are narrower than previous records:

Spreads are not expected to widen much, either, because demand appears insatiable. John Higgins of Capital Economics, a forecaster, projects that spreads on IG and HY will end 2024 little changed (though he notes that unexpected economic weakness could change the outlook). New bonds issued by regional banks have been quickly snapped up. Investors easily digested an “exceptionally strong” $30bn in new HY supply in January, the strongest month in two years, says Hussein Adatia, fixed-income portfolio manager at Westwood. He adds:

We expect this trend to continue in February given corporate bond spreads remain tight and issuers are eager to address 2024 and 2025 debt maturities while markets remain accommodative. The dearth of new HY supply over the past two years has left investors flush with cash and they have been more than happy to absorb the new supply (thus far).

How have spreads stayed so tight? One explanation is the best-of-all-worlds combination of falling cyclical risk, expected rate cuts and high current bond yields. With junk-rated yields north of 7 per cent alongside 3 per cent gross domestic product growth, investors needn’t worry about getting paid for taking on default risk, so they look past tight spreads. Coming after a decade of paltry fixed-income returns, it’s no surprise investors are “making up for lost time in bonds”, says Fridson.

This pattern has shown up before. Generally, bond yields and spreads travel together, reflecting the risk of defaults (which push both yields and spreads higher). But when the economy is strong, the two can diverge. The usual close link between HY spreads and yields weakens when US real GDP is growing faster than 3 per cent; the correlation coefficient drops from 0.8 to 0.5. The charts below show four episodes of HY spreads and yields coming apart, including over the past several months. You’ll notice that in some instances yields are rising, while in others they’re falling. What the four have in common are tumbling spreads during benign economic conditions (please forgive the ugly Excel graphs!):

It’s clear, then, why investors have been so into corporate credit. But is a trade so crowded still any good? An intuition you might bring from equities land is that high starting valuations imply lower expected returns. Bonds are not equities, of course. But if you overpay for credit risk, realised returns might turn out a lot worse than the yield you were initially promised.

I recently put that question to David Rosenberg, who runs Oaktree’s HY and IG bond business as well as its global credit strategy. Notwithstanding tight spreads, he still likes the trade. Spreads, he notes, are only one of three components that matter to corporate credit. The other two, price and yield, look quite attractive. Yields are in an equity-like range. And the average price on bonds in the Ice-BofA HY index is 92 cents on the dollar. Because bonds mature at face value, investors will receive extra returns through the “pull to par” effect as the bonds age.

At current valuations, though, Rosenberg prefers HY to IG for two reasons. The first is that while HY spreads may be tight relative to history, HY still gives you a meaningful step up in absolute returns versus Treasuries. On the other hand, IG’s yield is so close to that of Treasuries that investors are more reliant on rates falling to deliver outperformance. Here’s Rosenberg:

The concept that we’re going to have a soft landing or no landing with five rate cuts doesn’t seem likely to me . . . 

When I look at the difference between IG and high yield today, the reality is you’re picking up 200-250 basis points of yield. You’re picking up risk, but you’re getting paid for it. In IG today, you need rates to go down for that trade to work. Eventually they’ll come down, but I’m not sure it’ll be as quick as the market expects. In high yield, I don’t need rates to come down because the coupon is so much higher.

The past decade of IG-vs-HY performance bears this out. Returns for IG, which has longer duration than HY, track those for long-dated Treasuries. IG, in other words, is largely a rates bet. However, HY significantly outperformed the relevant Treasury benchmark, helped by a mostly gentle credit cycle (charts from regular Unhedged correspondent Dec Mullarkey of SLC Management):

Rosenberg’s second point in favour of HY is quality. As we’ve discussed before, the HY bond universe has seen a big improvement in the composition of credit ratings. About half the market is made up of double-B bonds, the highest-quality rung, up from about a third a decade ago. The coronavirus pandemic only accentuated this, by killing off some of the weakest credits. The share of triple-C bonds, the junkiest sort, is at a decade low. Rosenberg again:

There’s no bargain if you’re just going to take a bunch of risk to get more yield. Anyone can do that. The art of this business is to get the yield and keep risk low . . . 

Today, the mix of quality is the best we’ve seen in a decade. While many people say spreads are just OK, I say, sure, but quality is really good. So if I can get a yield that’s high and a quality that’s high, that is very rare. The difference today is that the yield is high, not because people are scared and spreads are wide, but because the base rate is high. That allows you to get income without having to take undue risk.

All this gets to an important difference between a bull market in equities and one in bonds. Equity investors need earnings growth to do well. However, bonds are contracts; investors just need enough cash flow to get paid. Aside from the riskiest slices, corporate bonds usually require a significant economic dislocation (a recession, an oil price collapse) to flop. It is obviously still possible to post poor returns in bonds. But animal spirits are safer in some markets than in others.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 6th of February 2024 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Chrysalis Investments Raised to Outperform at Peel Hunt (+)
* Legrand Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT 85 euros
* MorphoSys Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT 68 euros
* MorphoSys Raised to Neutral at Kempen & Co (+)
* Newron Pharma Raised to Buy at Baader Helvea
* Palantir Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT $22
* Sainsbury Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 310 pence
* Salzgitter Raised to Buy at Bankhaus Metzler; PT 32.50 euros (+)
* Schindler Raised to Buy at SocGen; PT 245 Swiss francs
* SKF Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 215 kronor
* Tyson PT Raised to $55 from $48 at Piper Sandler
* Vodafone Raised to Hold at DZ Bank; PT 70 pence (+)

>>> Down
* Acciona Energia Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT 24 euros
* Ahold Delhaize Cut to Reduce at HSBC; PT 23 euros
* Air Products PT Cut to $240 from $285 at Jefferies
* Alliance Pharma Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 42 pence (+)
* Bristol Myers Cut to Neutral at Redburn; PT $77
* Cherry Cut to Hold at Bankhaus Metzler; PT 2.40 euros (+)
* Chevron Cut to Hold at DZ Bank; PT $160 (+)
* Embraer ADRs Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $19
* Enento Group Cut to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 21 euros
* Entain Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 1,070 pence
* Eutelsat Cut to Hold at SocGen; PT 4 euros
* LEG Immobilien Cut to Hold at M.M. Warburg (+)
* LVMH Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 860 euros
* Metro Cut to Reduce at HSBC; PT 5.50 euros
* Nel Cut to Sell at Arctic Securities; PT 4.50 kroner
* ON Semi Cut to Neutral at Fubon; PT $85
* Princess Private Equity Cut to Hold at Stifel
* RWE Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 40 euros
* Solaria Energia Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 16 euros
* Springvest Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 5.50 euros
* Tesla Cut to Neutral at Daiwa; PT $195
* Valeo Pharma Cut to Speculative Buy at Paradigm Capital
* Vodafone Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 74 pence (+)

>>> Initiation
* Befesa Rated New Buy at Hauck & Aufhaeuser; PT 46 euros (+)
* BE Semiconductor Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane
* Georg Fischer Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 72 Swiss francs
* Pluxee France Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT 30.50 euros
* Pluxee France Rated New Buy at Citi; PT 38 euros
* SThree Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 550 pence
* Stif Rated New Buy at Greensome Finance; PT 12.73 euros (+)

>>> Call
* BP’s Extended Share Buybacks a ‘Welcome Positive’: RBC (+)
* Citi’s Montagu Says Bullish Stock Flows Stall in Early February (+)
* Entain Cut at Barclays on Sluggish Online Growth, Balance Sheet (+)
* Georg Fischer New Buy at Berenberg on Uponor Consolidation Boost
* JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Sees Fewer Rate Cuts Than Markets Expect
* Legrand Raised to Hold at Jefferies Following Underperformance
* SKF Raised at Morgan Stanley on Reduced Margin Risks in 2024
* Stadler Rail’s Saudi Order Deepens Regional Foothold: Citi (+)

WSJ : America Wanted a Homegrown Solar Industry. China Is Building a Lot of It.

America Wanted a Homegrown Solar Industry. China Is Building a Lot of It.
China’s biggest solar companies are expanding in the U.S., where they will reap generous government aid

For years, the U.S. erected higher and higher barriers to the import of Chinese solar panels, arguing that was the best way to protect domestic suppliers.

Now, China’s solar giants are building their factories inside the U.S.

During the past year, the world’s biggest solar companies, all of which do the bulk of their manufacturing in China, have quietly launched plans to set up or expand panel factories in locations from Ohio to Texas—part of a rush to build in the U.S. following the introduction of generous production subsidies with the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022.

China-based companies are behind nearly a quarter of the roughly 80 gigawatts in new solar-panel capacity that has been announced since that legislation, according to an analysis by The Wall Street Journal. That positions them to be big beneficiaries of government subsidies as well—as much as $1.4 billion a year collectively if the panel factories announced so far are built, according to Journal calculations.

Many of those plants are huge by U.S. standards, and they are going up fast. At least four new factories backed by giant Chinese manufacturers are slated to come online this year, with enough capacity when complete to supply more than half of the record 33 gigawatts of panels the U.S. is estimated to have installed last year.

The rush of Chinese interest is a mixed blessing for the U.S., which is struggling to build a domestic solar supply chain largely from scratch.

Industry trackers estimate that more than 80% of global solar production takes place inside China, while much of the rest is in Southeast Asia and funded or contracted by large China-based makers.

Such manufacturers have the know-how, suppliers and deep pockets needed to set up plants in the U.S. quickly—a boon for local economies and the U.S.’s ambitious clean-energy deployment goals. But the U.S. subsidies were also supposed to lessen the country’s dependence on China in clean energy.

Among the big-name manufacturers setting up now is Xi’an-based Longi Green Energy Technology 601012 7.87%increase; green up pointing triangle, which has a joint venture in Ohio with Chicago-based renewables developer Invenergy that expects to start making panels in the next few weeks.

“We definitely don’t want to miss the wave,” says Steven Zhu, president of the U.S. unit of Trina Solar 688599 5.65%increase; green up pointing triangle, a company based northwest of Shanghai that is the biggest maker of solar panels in the world, according to data from supply-chain tracker Clean Energy Associates.

Trina announced in September that it is investing $200 million in a factory near Dallas that will be able to produce five gigawatts of solar panels a year. The first panels are expected to come off the lines midyear, says Zhu.

In December, Trina staffers joined local officials in a Christmas-tree lighting ceremony featuring a real reindeer and two plastic snowmen blasting fake snow.

Some homegrown U.S. manufacturers welcome the development. Chinese rivals have been so nimble and their panels so much cheaper that trying to fend them off with tariffs alone hasn’t had lasting success.

“As long as they’re playing by the rules, I have no problems with competing with other domestic manufacturers,” says Mamun Rashid, chief executive of Auxin Solar, who for years has said Chinese manufacturers have unfair advantages and are sidestepping duties.

But an increasingly vocal group of China hawks say that letting Chinese solar and battery manufacturers take government subsidies could undermine efforts to build a domestic supply chain and threaten the U.S.’s energy security.

“The Inflation Reduction Act is being misinterpreted to benefit Chinese companies and give billions of American tax dollars to our adversaries,” says Congresswoman Carol Miller (R., W.Va.). Miller and Sen. Marco Rubio (R., Fla.) in December introduced a bill that would effectively prevent Chinese companies from getting such clean-energy manufacturing subsidies.

The Biden administration is in a bind because it is simultaneously trying to fight climate change, expand domestic manufacturing and recapture the leadership in solar technologies—all of which call for different approaches to China’s giant manufacturers, says Timothy Brightbill, a trade lawyer for Wiley Rein.

The Inflation Reduction Act is successfully building up a U.S. solar supply chain and reversing the trend of China controlling production, says a Biden administration official. The U.S. has procedures to ensure foreign investments don’t trigger national-security concerns, she says.

Under President Biden, manufacturing jobs that had been outsourced to China during previous administrations are “coming to America,” says Michael Kikukawa, a White House spokesman.

Trina first looked into manufacturing in the U.S. several years ago, after the U.S. slapped more duties on panels made in China, says Zhu, a naturalized U.S. citizen who has lived in the U.S. for 30 years. At the time, Trina decided the cost of producing in the U.S. was too high.

Instead, Trina and other big Chinese manufacturers moved factories out of the mainland—mostly to Southeast Asia—and adjusted supply chains to keep selling panels to the U.S. as regulations changed.

In 2022, the U.S. started enforcing a tough anti-forced-labor law that effectively halted the import of solar panels that used a key ingredient—high-grade silicon—made in the Xinjiang region in western China. Subsequently, Trina instead started buying the material from U.S. and European suppliers.

Last year, Trina started producing another important component, silicon wafers, in Vietnam, to meet tightened Commerce Department standards.

After the Inflation Reduction Act was passed, Trina decided to finally make the move to the U.S. The cost of production is still higher in the U.S., even with incentives, Zhu says, but Trina didn’t want to lose footing in an important market, he says.

On Jan. 26, a bipartisan group of senators sent a letter to Biden, urging him to increase tariffs on solar components from China because they “threaten U.S. economic and energy security.”

Trina, like other Chinese solar giants here, is working to show it has good intentions. All of the U.S. unit’s 80-odd employees are U.S. citizens, Zhu says. The company plans to reinvest much of the money it makes into the U.S. market rather than send it back to China. Trina is trying to bring its suppliers to the U.S., and Zhu says he is “pretty sure” the company will decide to build a factory that makes solar cells—the building blocks of panels—here, too.

The U.S. market needs Chinese solar manufacturers for their technological know-how, ability to bring suppliers from China, capital and appetite for investment, Zhu says.

Zhu knows there is pushback from U.S. politicians on Chinese manufacturers. But, he says “we’re not politicians. We just do the business.”

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Demant (WDH1 TH) +3.8%
    • Demant Sees 2024 Ebit DKK4.6B-DKK5B; To Review Comms Business
  • BP (BPE5 TH) +2%
    • BP Accelerates Share Buyback as Profit Beats Estimates
  • Prosus (1TY TH) +1.7%
  • Novo (NOV TH) +1.4%
  • Equinor (DNQ TH) +1.1%
    • Blue and Nuclear Hydrogen to Get a Boost From New EU Rules: BNEF
  • Leonardo (FMNB TH) +1.1%
  • TotalEnergies (TOTB TH) +1%
  • Rheinmetall (RHM TH) -0.5%
  • LVMH (MOH TH) -0.6%
    • LVMH Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 860 euros
  • Aurubis (NDA TH) -0.6%
    • Aurubis 1Q Pretax Operating Profit Misses Estimates
  • Qiagen (QIA TH) -0.7%
  • RWE (RWE TH) -0.8%
    • RWE Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 40 euros
  • DSV (DS81 TH) -1%
    • DSV Has the Tools to Build a Bigger, Better Logistics Company
  • STMicroelectronics (SGM TH) -1.2%
    • Infineon Lowers Guidance Amid Broader Slump in Chip Demand (1)
  • Aixtron (AIXA TH) -1.5%
  • Mowi (PND TH) -1.5%
  • Infineon (IFX TH) -3.5%
    • *INFINEON SEES 2Q SEGMENT RESULT MARGIN ABOUT 18%, EST. 23.1%

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Mercedes (MBG TH) +0.8%
  • Porsche AG (P911 TH) +0.8%
  • Deutsche Bank (DBK TH) +0.8%
    • Deutsche Bank Hires Credit Suisse Alum for Building Products
  • RWE (RWE TH) -0.8%
    • RWE Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 40 euros
  • Infineon (IFX TH) -2.8%
    • *INFINEON SEES 2Q SEGMENT RESULT MARGIN ABOUT 18%, EST. 23.1%
MDAX:
  • Evotec SE (EVT TH) +2%
  • Encavis (ECV TH) +1%
  • Delivery Hero (DHER TH) -0.5%
  • Aurubis (NDA TH) -0.6%
    • Aurubis 1Q Pretax Operating Profit Misses Estimates
  • Aixtron (AIXA TH) -1.6%
SDAX:
  • MorphoSys (MOR TH) +17%
    • Novartis to Buy Morphosys for €2.7 Billion to Gain Cancer Drugs
  • SFC Energy (F3C TH) +2.6%
  • Hamborner REIT (HABA TH) +2.2%
  • Metro (B4B TH) -0.4%
    • Metro Cut to Reduce at HSBC; PT 5.50 euros
  • Deutz (DEZ TH) -1.2%