FT : Record $668mn loan boosts hopes for Miami’s luxury housing boom

Record $668mn loan boosts hopes for Miami’s luxury housing boom
Lenders are vying for projects such as PMG’s 1,000-foot tower, which is selling units for up to $90mn

A new Miami skyscraper where apartments will cost up to $90mn has secured a $668mn residential construction loan — the largest in Florida’s history — as the pandemic boom town’s heated high-end housing market shows no signs of cooling.

The Waldorf Astoria Residences by property developer PMG will be the tallest building in the Americas south of New York City, towering more than 1,000 feet over downtown Miami. The $668mn loan it has secured, from Bank OZK and Related Fund Management, breaks the previous record for a residential construction loan in Florida, a $600mn loan for the Cipriani Residences earlier this year.

“Miami is the most attractive market in the US right now for condo construction lenders with a high quality developer,” said Suzanne Amaducci, a top commercial real estate lawyer in the city. Even as commercial real estate lenders had grown more cautious, she said, condominium construction “deals in South Florida are still getting done because . . . of the demand and the lack of supply”.

Miami saw a population influx during the pandemic, as people moved in search of better weather, friendly taxes and looser Covid restrictions. The number of high earners flocking to Miami outpaced its supply of luxury properties.

“The buyer pool is deeper that it’s ever been, and . . . it’s people with high paying jobs who can afford to live in the buildings that are being constructed,” said Dan Kaplan, managing partner of the Miami-based PMG, a firm known for large residential projects.

The cost of condominiums has risen across the city to cover rising building and insurance costs and capitalise on the demand for luxury projects. The 387 units in the Waldorf tower range in price from $1mn for a studio, up to about $90mn for penthouses.

More than 90 per cent of them were already sold, the developer said, even though the foundation was yet to be poured. The loan was intended to cover the completion of the tower, expected in 2028, PMG said.

Loans for condo development in Miami have also grown larger as demand has inflated sale prices, increasing what developers could borrow against.

“You’re at a new bar in terms of cost,” said Kaplan, describing the record loan as “the most significant financing in the company’s history”.

Miami’s real estate market remains dogged by its reputation for booms and busts. But developers are adamant that the city’s condo market is significantly less risky than it was in the last downturn, after the 2008 financial crisis.

“I’m always the one saying ‘OK, things have been too good for too long what’s going to give?’ But Miami continues to surprise me in how resilient it is,” said JC de Ona, head of the south Florida division on Centennial Bank, which makes commercial real estate loans.

There was “real competition” between banks with the capacity to lend to the largest projects, he added.

The market for lenders has been buoyed by a regulation Florida introduced after the financial crisis, which mandated that developers sell condo units before breaking ground to ensure capitalisation and adequate demand. Buyers pay non-refundable deposits as high as 40 per cent of the purchasing price, which developers use to fund construction and cover borrowing.

“Miami continues to be an attractive market given its strong economic fundamentals,” said Brannon Hamblen, president of Bank OZK, one of the country’s biggest property lenders. The city is now the most significant part of the Arkansas lender’s loan book.

Regulations made the market safer, and the customer base was more stable, said Amaducci. “Miami is a much different place now. People want to live here. These condos are no longer second, third, fourth homes.”

FT : Postcard from Switzerland: an off-piste adventure . . . in June

Postcard from Switzerland: an off-piste adventure . . . in June
A series of late storms have drawn obsessive skiers back to the Alps

On Wednesday morning last week, Heathrow’s Terminal 2 was busy with passengers departing for summer breaks everywhere from Stockholm to San Francisco, but I think I was the only one carrying skis.

Skiing, as I’ve written before, is a slippery slope. It starts as an innocuous, one-week-per-year family holiday but can quickly become an obsession, driving you to obscure places and extreme lengths in search of snow. Social media has made it worse — from December until Easter, feeds are full of shots from the mountains, ensuring almost constant Fomo for those stuck at their desks. 

This year, though most Alpine ski resorts closed in April, the shots kept coming: fresh snow piling up on outdoor tables, tree branches bending under a white mantle, skis throwing plumes of powder into the sky. A series of late storms meant that winter seemed to be refusing to release its hold on the Alps. Engelberg in Switzerland got more than two metres of fresh snow at the end of April; in May, more snow forced the Giro, Italy’s national cycle race, to be rerouted.

I was on a beach in Cornwall, on a summer half-term break with my kids, when I got a message from Dan Loutrel, a mountain guide friend based in Switzerland. Conditions were looking good for the following week, should we go skiing?

And so, on June 5, I found myself packing Gore-Tex and down jackets into a bag that still had sand in it, and flying to Zurich for a discombobulating three-day break. Of course, there are a handful of ski areas that operate every summer, usually a few pistes up on a high glacier, typically used for slalom racers to train (ironically, the opening of one of them, Stelvio in Italy, has been delayed this summer because too much snow closed the access road). Our trip would be very different, an off-piste adventure, using skins attached to our skis to climb through the high mountains in search of cold snow and wild slopes.


At Zurich airport I left my travelling clothes in a locker and caught the train to Zermatt in an eccentric outfit: flip flops, shorts and rucksack, skis and boots in hand. A warm breeze blew in the open windows as the train made the final pull up the Mattertal valley, clouds of wildflowers covering the banks alongside, but up high the mountain tops sparkled white.

The following morning, Europe’s highest cable car took us up to the Klein Matterhorn (3,883 metres above sea level), injecting us straight back into winter. From there we struck out east into the Monte Rosa massif, traversing wide-open snowfields, my skis falling into a steady rhythm behind Dan’s. Off to the right we could look down into the green valleys of northern Italy, the villages of Champoluc and later Gressoney just visible thousands of metres beneath us. From the pure-white summit of the Castor we made our first proper turns, steep and committing but as soft as in midwinter.

In the afternoon, though, the wind got up and the weather got worse. At 4pm we were in a whiteout, fresh snow blowing around us, and Dan using GPS to navigate through the storm to find the Rifugio Gnifetti. Bizarre that it was only a fortnight before midsummer, but by now I had given up thinking about the real world down below.

A refuge has stood on this spot, 3,600 metres up on a rocky crest, since 1876; the current structure, built almost entirely of weathered wooden planks, dates from 1967. We clambered up metal rungs hammered into the rock to reach it, then gratefully fell through the door. Inside, the uneven floor and my lack of acclimatisation meant I couldn’t shake the sense that we were in a moving ship but, this being just over the border into Italy, it was nothing if not civilised. Bottles of red wine lined the walls behind the bar, a blackboard offered platters of cured meats and cheese, and Aperol spritz for €8 (already woozy, I stuck to water). Later there was a lengthy, four-course meal, served at a convivial table we shared with mountaineers from Chile and France, then a very short night.

We woke at 3.30am, set off an hour later and climbed to the Zumsteinspitze, at about 4,500m. We considered what would have been the descent of a lifetime, down into Italy’s Anzasca valley, but ruled it out because the previous day’s wind and fresh snow made it too risky. Instead we took a long, mellow run back towards Zermatt down the Grenzgletscher — slaloming between ice cliffs and crevasses for 9 kilometres, alone in a brilliant white world and with the Matterhorn poking up in front of us.

When the snow became too soft, we clambered over the moraine and up to the rack-and-pinion railway at Rotenboden. For the whole descent the only movement we’d seen had been the flow of blue, meltwater rivulets on the lower part of the glacier, and the scurry of a lone marmot, but cresting the ridge now we found dozens of tourists posing for selfies on the rocks around the station. We joined them on the train down into Zermatt, the summer air thick and soupy, but Dan pointed to clouds building on the horizon — “the next front coming in”. The ski season might have another few weeks yet.

FT : Budget stand-off pushes German coalition to brink

Budget stand-off pushes German coalition to brink
Ministers trying to reconcile stances on how to plug a massive financing gap that some estimate at up to €40bn

German ministers are hurtling towards a showdown over how to plug a massive financing gap in next year’s budget, in one of the toughest tests of coalition unity since Olaf Scholz became chancellor.

The deadline for adopting a draft budget for next year in the Eurozone’s largest economy is July 3 — a task not helped by increasing frictions between the three coalition parties in the wake of the European elections.

Finance minister Christian Lindner has demanded big savings across the board to cope with a smaller tax take in Germany’s sluggish economy, which is only expected to grow by 0.3 per cent this year. But he is facing strong resistance from many of the key ministries affected.

“The parties’ positions are essentially irreconcilable and I don’t see yet how we get to an agreement,” said one MP with knowledge of the talks.

The conflict is a huge dilemma for Scholz, who is already reeling from a European election that saw his Social Democratic party (SPD) slump to just 14 per cent — the worst result in a nationwide vote in its 134-year history.


The chancellor is being squeezed between Lindner, a fiscal hawk from the liberal Free Democratic party (FDP) whom he has so far backed in the dispute, and the SPD and Green ministers in his cabinet who reject the proposed cuts.

“It’s still unclear whether Scholz can push through a deal,” said one senior official. “Will he be able to prevail over his own party?”

The budget row highlights the widening conflict at the heart of Scholz’s government, a marriage of convenience between tax-and-spend Social Democrats and Greens on the one hand and fiscally conservative, free-market liberals on the other.

Thorsten Faas, a political scientist at the Free University in Berlin, said the tensions over the spending plan were virtually unprecedented for postwar Germany. “All three parties seem to be pulling in opposite directions,” he said. “Everyone’s nerves are really frayed.”

The fronts in the conflict have only hardened since European elections that saw the combined share of the vote for the three government parties fall to just 31 per cent, down from 52 per cent in the federal elections of 2021 that brought them to power.

The opposition Christian Democrats won the election with 30 per cent, while the far-right Alternative for Germany came second with 15.9 per cent — its best ever result in a nationwide vote.

Since then, all three government parties have appeared even less willing to compromise over spending than they were before polling day.

Lindner and his FDP are insisting the budget must comply with the “debt brake” — the cap on public sector borrowing enshrined in the German constitution which has become a trademark of the party.

In recent days he has gone even further, calling for changes to “Bürgergeld”, the Scholz government’s system of welfare payments that critics say resembles unconditional basic income, a bugbear of the right. 

But the FDP’s determination to stay fiscally prudent has set it on a collision course with the SPD, whose tone has become much more combative since the European election.

Lars Klingbeil, SPD leader, has said the party should give its traditional voters more of what they expect from it — affordable rents, higher pay, good social care. “Our people want to see us fight,” he told ARD TV.

And Kevin Kühnert, SPD general secretary, warned Lindner against any cuts to welfare spending, saying savings “can’t come at the expense of social cohesion”. Left-of-centre parties are convinced that the surge in AfD support can be explained in part by popular anxiety about threats to Germany’s welfare state.

The SPD has proposed loosening the rules of the debt brake or putting up taxes. The Greens, who fear cuts to climate programmes and investments in clean tech, have made similar demands.

“What’s clear to everyone is you can’t plug a €40bn fiscal gap primarily through budget cuts,” said Sven-Christian Kindler, budget policy spokesman for the Greens.

But Lindner’s FDP is hanging tough. “What’s clear is that we Free Democrats will not cross the lines set out in the coalition agreement,” said Wolfgang Kubicki, the FDP’s deputy leader. “That means: there will be no tax increases with us and no unconstitutional violation of the debt brake.” 

The budget conflict dates back to earlier this year, when Lindner issued each ministry with a spending target for 2025 that was in many cases lower than their expenditures for the current year. Ten cabinet members complied, while five insisted on a higher budget.

For example, the international development ministry wants to spend €12.2bn next year, while Lindner is prepared to allocate just €9.9bn. Meanwhile the foreign ministry has presented a budget of €7.4bn for next year — about €2bn more than Lindner is prepared to give.

“That’s basically going back to the spending levels of 2017 — before the war in Ukraine, the war in the Middle East,” said one foreign ministry official. “What’s on offer isn’t even enough to cover our ongoing operational costs, let alone humanitarian aid and help for Ukraine.”

Insiders dismiss suggestions in German media that the budget crisis could trigger a break-up of Scholz’s coalition. “There will be a solution,” said the MP close to the negotiations, who said all sides would have to edge back from their maximum demands. “But it’s not going to be easy for anyone.”

>>> US After Hours

After Hours Summary: ADBE +16.9% up big following earnings; RH -9.7% lower on earnings; MSM -6% falls on weak guidance; VXRT +140% jumps on news it will receive BARDA award

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: ADBE +16.9%, ITI +5.5%, FRHC +1%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: VXRT +140% (receives BARDA-funded Project NextGen award valued up to $453 mln), ZKH +6.5% (authorizes new $50 mln share repurchase program), CIM +3.1% (increases dividend), LNW +2.8% (authorizes new $1 bln share repurchase program), MITT +2% (increases dividend), TPL +1.9% (approves $10/sh special dividend), TSLA +0.6% (shareholders approve moving incorporation to Texas; approve CEO $56 bln pay package), WPC +0.1% (increases dividend), BMY +0.1% (FDA approves Augtyro for NTRK-positive tumors), TXT +0.1% (announces successful flight of its second Cessna Citation Ascend)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: RH -9.7%, MSM -6%, POWW -3.2%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: RZLT -13% (stock offering), FAST -2.1% (in sympathy with weak MSM guidance), GWW -1.9% (in sympathy with weak MSM guidance), OCUL -1% (highlights AXPAXLI SOL-1 enrollment and plans for repeat dosing study (SOL-R) in wet AMD), CABO -0.3% (announces restructuring, 4% headcount reduction), SITC -0.1% (closes on sale of six property portfolio for $495 mln), ON -0.1% (to reduce global workforce by ~1,000 employees)

9to5 : What is Apple Intelligence? Here’s how iOS 18’s AI features will change t

What is Apple Intelligence? Here’s how iOS 18’s AI features will change the way you use your iPhone, Mac, and iPad

The biggest news on one of Apple’s biggest days of the year was Apple Intelligence, a new suite of AI features coming later this year to iOS 18, iPadOS 18, and macOS Sequoia.

Apple’s WWDC presentation covered a lot of ground as it outlined what Apple Intelligence can do. Since then, we’ve gained even more details.

Here is everything you should know about Apple Intelligence, including the features it will bring to your iPhone, Mac, and iPad when it launches.

What is Apple Intelligence?
Apple Intelligence is Apple’s unique branding for its suite of AI features debuting later this year across iPhone, iPad, and Mac.
Craig Federighi summed it up this way during the WWDC keynote:
Apple Intelligence is the personal intelligence system that puts powerful generative models right at the core of your iPhone, iPad, and Mac.
There are five key pillars of Apple Intelligence that, in combination, distinguish it from other AI (artificial intelligence) tools that already exist.
  • Powerful: Capable of offering truly useful help
  • Intuitive: Easy to use and accessible
  • Integrated: Baked into the core of your devices
  • Personal: Understands your personal context
  • Private: Built from the ground up for privacy
Apple believes no one else has an AI offering that checks all these boxes—and they certainly seem right.
The goal of Apple Intelligence? Tim Cook put it well in the keynote: “to make your most personal products even more useful and delightful.”
What can Apple Intelligence do?
Here’s what Apple Intelligence will enable your iPhone, Mac, and iPad to do once it ships later this year.
Language tools
  • Writing Tools: AI will be able to rewrite and proofread your text anywhere you write it, even third-party apps. This will be especially useful when sending an email or writing an article or social media post.
  • Priority notifications: AI will understand from context which notifications are most important and surface those to the top for you.
  • Priority messages in Mail: Similarly, AI will prioritize the email messages that most merit your attention.
  • Smart Reply: AI will generate email replies for you, offering them up for your approval before being sent.
  • Reduce Interruptions: This new Focus mode works like Do Not Disturb, but intelligently allows important notifications to break through.
  • Summaries of content: Whether in a transcript from a meeting or when viewing an email, AI will summarize content for you.
Image tools
  • Image creation: Create totally original images with a simple typed request, even ones that feature a loved one.
  • Genmoji: Create totally original emoji on demand for any occasion.
  • Clean Up: Remove unwanted objects from a photo with ease.
  • Powerful search: Find exactly the photos you’re looking for in the Photos app.
  • Image Wand: Use the Apple Pencil to draw a circle in a Note and AI will automatically create a new image with its awareness of the other note contents.
  • Create Memories movies: Type a request in the Photos app to have a new Memories video created using the best-matching images in your library.
New and improved Siri
  • Richer language understanding: Siri with Apple Intelligence is far more forgiving of clunky requests. For example, you can say, “Siri, set an alarm for — oh wait no, set a timer for 10 minutes. Actually, make that 5.”
  • Personalized assistance: Siri can perform new actions with a deep awareness of your personal context. For example, you can say, “Play that song my wife sent me the other day.”
  • Onscreen awareness: Now Siri will know what’s on your screen and can assist accordingly. For example, you might say, “Add this address to their contact card.”
  • Take action across apps: Siri can now perform cross-app actions that save you time. For example, you could ask, “Siri, add this location to my Road Trip note.”
  • Fresh look: Activate Siri, and rather than popping up in one place, the assistant will instead animate all around the borders of your device with a beautiful glowing light.
  • Quick typed requests: With a quick double tap at the bottom of your iPhone or iPad’s screen, a keyboard will pop up so you can type a request to Siri rather than speaking it.
  • Deep Apple product knowledge: Now you can ask Siri questions about any of your Apple devices and OS features and it can provide the info you need.
ChatGPT integration
Apple has officially partnered with OpenAI to integrate ChatGPT deeply into the iOS 18, iPadOS 18, and macOS Sequoia systems.
With ChatGPT from OpenAI integrated into Siri and Writing Tools, you get even more expertise when it might be helpful for you — no need to jump between tools. Siri can tap into ChatGPT for certain requests, including questions about photos or documents. And with Compose in Writing Tools, you can create and illustrate original content from scratch.
For more info, check out the following from my colleague Zac:
ChatGPT will not require an OpenAI account, nor will any of the information it processes be saved or shared with others. Apple is maintaining its privacy standards with this integration rather than depending on OpenAI to do so.
Which devices will support Apple Intelligence?
Because of the advanced computing resources necessary to properly power these features, Apple Intelligence is limited to a select number of modern devices:
  • iPhone 15 Pro and Pro Max
  • iPads with M1, M2, or M4 chip
  • Macs with M1, M2, or M3 chip
Top comment by NS
Liked by 1 people
Doubt the part about deep Apple products knowledge. Even when searching for solution and came to the support forum attended by human staff, they only gives template answer that doesn’t even touch the problem, and obviously not solution (and they won’t just cut the chase and admit when it’s impossible to do).

As for the other AI feature, even after AI is growing like now, still can’t find a scenario to use it. But this is a personal use case problem.
View all comments
This means on the iPhone, only the newest and highest-end phones will support these powerful AI features—at least for now. The iPhone 16, 16 Plus, and 16 Pro models are all expected to support Apple Intelligence.
Wrap-up
If your device supports Apple Intelligence, all the features outlined above will make for a whole new computing experience later this year.
Apple seems set to truly take AI mainstream, and in its own unique way.

Which AI features are you most looking forward to? If your device doesn’t support Apple Intelligence, do you plan to upgrade soon? Let us know in the comments.

>>> US Close Dow -0.17% S&P +0.23% Nasdaq +0.34% Russell -0.88%

Closing Stock Market Summary
The S&P 500 (+0.2%) and Nasdaq Composite (+0.3%) added to their record closing highs today, but market breadth was negative and other major indices closed with losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2% and the Russell 2000 settled 0.9% lower.

Some normal consolidation efforts drove the underlying negative bias following a big run in many stocks. Decliners led advancers by a nearly 2-to-1 margin at the NYSE and at the Nasdaq.

Dropping market rates and solid gains in some mega cap stocks were not enough to offset the downside bias.

The 10-yr note yield fell six basis points to 4.24% and the 2-yr note yield declined six basis points to 4.69%. This price action was in response to a cooler-than-expected inflation reading in the form of the May Producer Price Index, a weaker-than-expected initial jobless claims report, and today's $22 billion 30-yr bond reopening, which was met with solid demand.

Broadcom (AVGO 1678.99, +183.48, +12.3%) was a standout from the mega cap space following its better-than-expected earnings report, outlook, and 10-for-1 stock split announcement. NVIDIA (NVDA 129.61, +4.41, +3.5%) logged a solid gain in sympathy.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI 871.10, +96.36, +12.4%) also registered an outsized gain in sympathy with AVGO. Gains in the aforementioned names boosted the information technology sector (+1.4%), which was the top performer among the 11 sectors. The rate-sensitive real estate sector (+0.5%) showed the next largest gain, benefitting from the drop in market rates.

  • Nasdaq Composite: +17.7% YTD
  • S&P 500:+13.9% YTD
  • S&P Midcap 400: +5.5% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +2.5% YTD
  • Russell 2000: +0.6% YTD

Reviewing today's economic data:
  • Weekly Initial Claims 242K (Briefing.com consensus 224K; Prior 229K; Weekly Continuing Claims 1.820 mln; Prior was revised to 1.790 mln from 1.792 mln
  • The key takeaway from the report is the upward drift in jobless claims, as that will be construed as a loosening of labor market conditions that fits the Fed's script for eventually cutting rates.
  • May PPI -0.2% (consensus 0.1%); Prior was revised to 0.1% from 0.5%; May Core PPI 0.0% (consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.5%
    • The key takeaway from the report is that it will factor favorably in the PCE Price Index, which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. In other words, it is a report that is pleasing in the market's mind as providing a stepping stone to a Fed rate cut.

Friday's economic calendar features:
  • 08:30 ET: May import prices (prior 0.9%) and nonfuel import prices (prior 0.7%); May export prices (prior 0.5%) and nonagricultural export prices (prior 0.7%)
  • 10:00 ET: Preliminary June Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (consensus 73.0; prior 69.1)

>>> Dyne Therapeutics Presents New Preclinical Data for its Facioscapulohumeral

Dyne Therapeutics Presents New Preclinical Data for its Facioscapulohumeral Muscular Dystrophy Program During the FSHD Society International Research Congress
WALTHAM, Mass., June 13, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Dyne Therapeutics, Inc. (Nasdaq: DYN), a clinical-stage muscle disease company focused on advancing innovative life-transforming therapeutics for people living with genetically driven diseases, today highlighted new preclinical data for DYNE-302, its product candidate for facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy (FSHD), that demonstrated robust and durable DUX4 suppression and functional benefit. The data were presented during the 31st Annual FSHD Society International Research Congress, being held June 13-14, 2024, in Denver, Colorado.

FT : Mission Impossible: how talks to sell Paramount turned into a Titanic flop

Mission Impossible: how talks to sell Paramount turned into a Titanic flop
Early affinity between billionaire scions Shari Redstone and David Ellison devolved into stony silence as deal collapsed

After more than six months of gruelling negotiations, David Ellison thought he was on the verge of clinching the deal of a lifetime: taking over Paramount, the century-old Hollywood studio.

Ellison got word on Tuesday morning in Los Angeles from an adviser to Shari Redstone, the heiress who controls the media group behind classics including The Godfather, Chinatown and Titanic, that all the financial details of the deal had been ironed out. At a 2.30pm (New York time) meeting on Tuesday, Paramount’s special committee planned to greenlight the proposal from Ellison’s company, Skydance Media.

And then came the plot twist. Minutes before the independent advisers evaluating the Skydance bid were set to recommend it, Redstone’s lawyers Ropes & Gray sent a terse email to the special board committee saying the deal was dead. “While it is true we’re agreed on all material economic terms, there are other terms outstanding, and we are basically backing away,” the message said, according to a person with knowledge of the matter, who paraphrased its content.

“Shari effectively killed a deal that was fully negotiated, fully done on all key economics two minutes before the special committee meeting,” the person added. “That was that.”

It was an abrupt, bitter ending to a story whose two protagonists had formed an unlikely bond. Both are children of hard-charging billionaire fathers: Redstone, 70, is the daughter of Sumner Redstone, who built the media and entertainment empire that is at the core of Paramount — a group that also includes the CBS television network, MTV, Comedy Central and Nickelodeon. Ellison’s father, Larry, is the billionaire co-founder of Oracle, the software group.

David Ellison also has a deep connection to Paramount, having produced a number of blockbusters alongside the studio, including Top Gun: Maverick.

But in recent weeks, their bond weakened as they clashed over the details of the deal — and speculation swirled that Redstone was having doubts about letting go of the family business. When it was all over, exasperated advisers said they could not recall a messier process. And observers from Wall Street to Hollywood were left wondering what Redstone’s next move will be.

Paramount presented a rare opportunity for Ellison to gain control of one of Hollywood’s crown jewels, rich in history with its iconic lot on Melrose Avenue and century-old library of films.

The studio has struggled to adapt to the digital era but Ellison, 41, believed he could fix the group’s mounting problems. Its once-mighty, generation-defining television channels such as MTV are in long-term decline while the Paramount+ streaming service is losing money.

Paramount, valued at less than $8bn on the stock market, has more than $14bn in debt, which was recently downgraded to junk. Investors have lost faith that the company can compete on its own, making it the subject of takeover speculation for several years. Shares have declined 30 per cent this year, including a nearly 15 per cent fall since talks were called off.


The deal was never going to be easy to pull off. Ellison’s plan had two steps: First, his company would buy National Amusements (NAI), the Redstone-controlled group which holds 77 per cent of Paramount’s voting shares. Then Paramount would acquire Skydance in a stock deal.

The first cracks emerged in May when Ellison’s consortium, which included private equity groups RedBird and KKR as well as his family’s fortune, adjusted its offer after it became clear Paramount’s common shareholders were planning to fight back. Several holders of Paramount’s non-voting stock publicly threatened to sue if the deal went through, saying all of the value would go to Redstone, who holds the majority of the voting shares.

So the Ellison team decided to pay NAI — and by extension, Redstone herself — less than originally proposed to sweeten the deal for Paramount’s B shareholders.

After Skydance decided in May to reduce its offer to NAI from $2.5bn to $2.3bn, including debt, Redstone stopped talking to Ellison, said people briefed about the matter. Others involved said the decision to stop communication was out of respect for the negotiation process with the special committee. These people added that ultimately NAI agreed to the lower offer of $2.3bn.

Nonetheless, Redstone had started to lose trust in Ellison following the adjusted offer, people close to her said. The same people added that despite Redstone’s changing perception of Ellison, the founder of Skydance was highly respected by NAI and Paramount’s advisers for his integrity throughout the process.

It was only after Ellison was told the deal was dead that Redstone informed him that she was upset by the reduction in the cash offer for her stake, said a person close to her. “She was unhappy that she didn’t get more,” the person said.

Other people close to Redstone disputed this, saying the deal collapsed because Ellison’s camp resisted calls to allow non-voting shareholders to register their “consent” — or lack thereof — for the transaction through some kind of tally. “Obviously that would have provided protection against shareholder litigation,” said another person familiar with Redstone’s thinking.

People close to Skydance and Paramount said Redstone decided to use the “consent” vote as a last-minute excuse to kill the deal; the matter had been cleared at the very start of the negotiation.

There were other signs of friction as Redstone pursued the sale. In April, Redstone fired her longtime trusted chief executive, Bob Bakish, who had made little secret of his opposition to the Skydance deal and pursued talks with other potential suitors. She replaced Bakish with three Paramount executives who formed an “office of the CEO”. Four board members also left this spring.

Throughout the process, other potential bidders came and went. Paramount shares declined in December when it emerged that Bakish had met his counterpart at Warner Bros Discovery, David Zaslav. Private equity group Apollo approached Paramount twice, most recently with Sony as a partner. And this week Edgar Bronfman Jr, the Seagram heir, made an approach alongside Bain Capital.

Multiple people who were directly and indirectly involved in the process said there was more than money that persuaded Redstone to walk away from a deal with Ellison that she had initiated months ago.

Several people said Redstone could not get her head around parting with a company that had been founded by her grandfather and built into a global force by her father, with whom she had a fraught relationship.

Redstone appeared to have warmed to the turnaround plans drawn up by the three members of the office of the CEO — a group many had expected to be mere placeholders until the Skydance deal was completed. But last week they rolled out a plan to cut costs and reorganise the group, and she has given them her blessing.

“If all Skydance is going to do is take costs out of the business and streamline the streaming business, we could just do that ourselves without the litigation risk and 12 to 18 months [to get to] closing,” said one person familiar with the strategy.

However, some investors seem baffled by the idea. “It could be OK as a caretaker model,” said John Rogers, chair and co-CEO of Ariel Investments. “But I have not experienced anything where you had a long-term arrangement with three leaders. It just is not normal.”

Multiple people, including former and current board members, said another factor playing against Skydance was the role played by Charles Phillips, a Paramount board member who tried to torpedo the deal throughout the process.

Phillips, who worked at Oracle up to 2010, was against the deal and spoke out against it frequently, said former and current board members at Paramount. He did so by putting numerous roadblocks to a deal with Skydance and by talking negatively about the Ellison family to Redstone, the people said.

A number of people involved in the process said Phillips should have recused himself from the process as he was personally against the Ellison family because of their history. Phillips did not immediately respond to a request for comment; a person close to the board disputed the assertion, saying he “has deep respect for the Ellisons.”

Pushing from the other direction was another Oracle veteran: Larry Ellison himself, who became more involved as the negotiations drew to a close. Some in the Redstone camp pointed to Larry Ellison’s participation as a reason that tensions rose over the past week. “The more Larry gets in it, the more the relationship deteriorates,” said one person familiar with the situation. “There had been a fondness for David, but Larry is more pointy elbowed.”

Another person involved in the deal talks dismissed such concerns. “Larry was obviously involved,” he said. “Larry was writing a big check.”

Whatever the tensions, David Ellison believed he was going to sign a deal to acquire Paramount this week. “Everything was resolved,” said one person involved.

Like a classic Hollywood cliffhanger, the collapse leaves Redstone in a bind with no obvious way out. Paramount is small, struggling and twisting under a mountain of debt, and the stock price is in free fall. Her family’s wealth is strained by financial pressures linked to her father’s death. And NAI has its own debt burden. Yet even after months of negotiations, people close to Ellison’s bid say they are unsure of what motivated Redstone to pull the plug.

“Ultimately, [maybe] she got to the finish line and decided that she couldn’t sell her legacy,” said one.

FT : Swiss Re says industry failed to estimate impact of extreme weather

Swiss Re says industry failed to estimate impact of extreme weather
Global insured losses from natural catastrophes exceeded $100bn for fourth consecutive year in 2023

Swiss Re, one of the world’s biggest reinsurers, has said the industry significantly underestimated the fallout from recent natural disasters across Europe and warned that some areas have become “uninsurable”. 

“Whether it’s the Turkey quake . . . or the floods in Germany or the hailstorms in Italy, models were off by factors as opposed to 10 or 20 per cent,” said Gianfranco Lot, the group’s chief underwriting officer for property and casualty reinsurance.

Global insured losses from natural catastrophes exceeded $100bn for the fourth consecutive year in 2023, the group has said, including $6.2bn of losses from the earthquake that hit Turkey. 

Lot told the FT Global Insurance Summit on Thursday that Swiss Re was investing heavily on feeding more data into its hundreds of natural catastrophe models. This could make it “more accurate in predicting the impact of these scenarios and events”.

Swiss Re said that underestimating the cost of extreme weather events was “an industry-wide issue and comes down to a lack of data about the up-to-date exposure and the current risk values”.

Global warming has made extreme weather events such as storms, flooding and wildfire more frequent and more intense, pushing up costs for the insurance and reinsurance industry.

Millions of homeowners around the world are having to pay higher premiums for cover or are finding it difficult to obtain insurance at all, raising questions about how much governments should intervene to prevent the costs of climate change from being passed directly to consumers.

Lot said that in areas that had become uninsurable because of high risk, “that’s where government intervention is necessary and very very helpful”.

The debate about who pays to repair damage from disasters has been particularly contentious in the US, as some home insurers have started to pull out of the highest risk areas such as parts of California.

Home insurers in the US often have to get pricing changes signed off by local regulators, leading to accusations from the industry that they are unable to keep up with the rising cost of claims.

A senior executive from the American Property Casualty Insurance Association told the summit that the decision by some US insurers to restrict coverage for homes in states that were more regularly hit by natural disasters had been caused by “excessive government interference”.

Robert Gordon said that intervention to stop the cost of home insurance from rising too fast had “critically injured” parts of the insurance market.

Higher insurance costs could help dissuade people from buying or building homes in areas more vulnerable to fire and flooding, he said.

“That’s where you’re seeing in the US, the markets where you’re having a real availability crisis, it’s because the government is trying to suppress those [premiums].”