>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers
  • Gapping up:
    • AVAV +19%, PAY +16.8%, TGT +7.1%, SEAT +5.5%, APGE +5.4%, CRGY +4.3%, RSKD +4.2%, ARKO +3.4%, LLAP +2.5%, SAIA +1%, CHEF +0.9%, BWXT +0.8%
  • Gapping down:
    • GTLB -23.2%, SEMR -14.3%, SFIX -13.7%, ALB -7.8%, MSTR -6.1%, SBSW -5.6%, TNDM -5.4%, STXS -5.4%, BBIO -4.2%, LIVN -3.8%, KOS -3.7%, INTA -3.4%, FERG -3.4%, HLNE -2.2%, BHLB -2%, AMD -1.9%, NVO -1.9%, RVMD -1.7%, ESLT -1.7%, HUT -1.7%, CABO -1.1%, WCC -0.8%

FT : UK telecoms specialist Spirent agrees to £1bn takeover offer from US rival

UK telecoms specialist Spirent agrees to £1bn takeover offer from US rival
Deal would remove another UK-listed business from London market

US technology specialist Viavi Solutions has made a £1bn takeover offer for telecoms testing group Spirent Communications, in a deal that would remove another UK-listed business from the London market.

The US company on Tuesday offered 175 pence per share for Spirent, a 61 per cent premium to the closing price on Monday.

Oleg Khaykin, chief executive of Viavi, said the deal would “deliver enhanced product solutions and applications, accelerate growth in new markets and strengthen innovation through expanded engineering and design capabilities”.

If the deal goes ahead, Spirent would be the latest company to delist from London. Flutter, the gambling group that owns Paddy Power, said in January that it was planning to move its primary listing to New York, while shareholders in Tui, Europe’s largest travel company, last month overwhelmingly approved its proposal to ditch its London listing.

Other companies including miner BHP, building materials group CRH, packaging business Smurfit Kappa and plumbing supplier Ferguson have already left.

Nasdaq-listed Viavi provides network testing and monitoring to industries including telecommunications, the military and aerospace. Spirent also tests 5G and WiFi networks, “internet of things” devices and cloud computing networks.

The deal will be funded by the US group’s existing cash, a $800mn loan from Wells Fargo and a $400mn investment in Viavi by US private equity group Silver Lake.

Khaykin said Silver Lake had an “outstanding track record” of supporting technology companies through organic growth investments and acquisitions. Ken Hao, Silver Lake chair and a managing partner, will join Viavi’s board as part of the investment.

Sir Bill Thomas, chair of Spirent, said its board intended to unanimously recommend the offer.

Spirent shareholders will receive 172.5p per share in cash and a special dividend of 2.5p per share in lieu of a final dividend.

Spirent chief executive Eric Updyke said the company had “endured significant challenges due to the macro backdrop” and that these conditions were “likely to continue for some time”. He added the deal brought “together a highly complementary product offering, which can be marketed globally”.

The FTSE 250 company on Tuesday also reported an 80 per cent drop in reported profit before tax to $22.9mn in 2023. It said inflation and higher interest rates had hit customer demand.

Viavi added it expected operational efficiencies from the deal, which is anticipated to close in the second half of the year, subject to shareholder approval and other conditions.

FT : Monzo secures $5bn valuation as it prepares return to USty is only for rich

Monzo secures $5bn valuation as it prepares return to US
London-based digital bank raised $430mn from investors including CapitalG and HongShan

Monzo has secured a fresh round of funding that has boosted its valuation to $5bn, as the London-based fintech prepares a second attempt to break into the US market.

The digital bank on Tuesday confirmed it had raised $430mn from new and existing investors in a fundraising led by Alphabet’s investment fund CapitalG. HongShan, the Chinese venture capital investor that split from Sequoia Capital last year also contributed, alongside existing backers including Tencent and Passion Capital.

The raise values Monzo more richly than the $4.5bn price tag it secured in 2021 from investors including Tencent, the Abu Dhabi Growth Fund, Coatue and Accel. The valuation bump comes as higher interest rates and weakening investor confidence have led many other high-profile start-ups to suffer significant down rounds in the past two years.

“Banking is still in the infancy of its transformation and we are seen as an outlier in pole position to win,” said chief executive TS Anil. “I think of this as a race to transform how customers interact with their money, to win at a global scale.”

Those leading the round “are sophisticated global tech investors, very discerning”, he added. “Through much of last year inbound interest was incredibly strong, so towards the end of the year we decided to crystallise it.”

Anil said the capital would allow Monzo to crack the US market after a previous foray was curtailed when US regulators told the company it was unlikely to receive a banking licence, prompting it to retreat in 2021.

The fintech last year hired a new US chief executive and has announced plans to re-enter the US, this time via a banking partnership that will allow it to bypass a licence application.

“We feel like we have earned the right to dream bigger and invest in the US as well,” Anil said. “American banking is ripe for reinvention and the American customer needs a Monzo-like product, a financial control centre that helps them manage their money.”

Anil also hinted at later plans to expand in European markets including Germany and France. “There are large, large revenue pools in banking and customers are massively dissatisfied [in Europe],” he said. “I’ve always believed that some of the most exciting innovation happens at the intersection of those two things.”

The latest funding round marks a stark reversal in fortunes for the start-up, best known for its bright coral-pink cards. In 2020 and 2021 as earnings from card transactions plunged during the pandemic, its auditors warned of a “material uncertainty” over its ability to continue to operate as a going concern. At that time the Financial Conduct Authority also opened an investigation into potential breaches of anti-money laundering laws.

While Monzo made a pre-tax loss of £116mn in 2023 — largely because of a surge in loan impairments stemming from the rapid growth of its buy now, pay later product — Anil said he expects to turn a profit this year.

While the $5bn valuation is far less than the $33bn UK rival Revolut achieved in 2021, Monzo has steadily worked through its issues and has a full banking licence. Revolut, by contrast, is still going through a protracted and distracting saga as it attempts to gain a licence from UK regulators.

Anil said it was still “too early” to talk about the timing and location of a potential public listing. The issue is a fraught topic in the UK after many unicorn start-ups opted to list in the US, where market liquidity is greater and valuations often higher.

The chief executive, who took over from founder Tom Blomfield after he stepped down in 2020, said Monzo had been approached by smaller rivals hoping to be acquired.

“We are operating from a position of strength . . . our organic strategy is working but we are open to M&A,” he said.

FT : Record number of cash offers show New York property is only for rich

Record number of cash offers show New York property is only for rich
High mortgage rates are creating a void for all but the wealthiest home buyers in the city

More than two-thirds of home sales in New York last quarter were cash purchases, a record, as high rates on mortgages deter all but the richest buyers.

As mortgage rates hover around 6 per cent, nearly 70 per cent of New York City homes purchased in the final quarter of 2023 were bought without a mortgage, according to Pamela Liebman, the chief executive of real estate brokerage Corcoran. Cash purchases jumped from just 55 per cent of transactions in the same period in 2022.

“High mortgage rates are creating a real void for people who don’t have the strong finances that are required to buy in cash,” she said in an interview with the FT.

“It’s driving people who would be home buyers in New York into renting.”

A Corcoran report found a 4 per cent increase in new leases in Manhattan and Brooklyn in January of 2024 compared with the previous year, while rents rose to an all-time median high of $3,950.

“It tells me that people are not willing to take on a certain level of debt in mortgages,” Liebman said. The high cost of borrowing for homebuyers had created a “void in the middle” of the property market, she said, as the rich got richer, while buyers who could not pay cash were sidelined as rents in the city continued to climb.

“Part of it is psychological, because everyone thinks rates are going to come down. So they’d rather pay cash now and refinance later,” she said.

The median sales price for a Manhattan apartment was $1.15mn in the fourth quarter, according to real estate agency Douglas Elliman. That was up 5 per cent from the same period a year earlier, and approaching the record $1.25mn median sales price reached in the second quarter of 2022 — just as the Fed was beginning to raise interest rates.

Buying in the city has slowed as a result. Liebman contrasted the market with more affordable cities such as Charlotte, North Carolina, where she said homes sold in days, often in a bidding war. But in New York, some of the best properties coming to market are now sitting for months. Last year, the US saw fewer than 4mn property transactions, down from a pandemic peak of 6mn, which is “not a good thing”, Liebman said.

Thomas Ryan, property economist at Capital Economics, said that despite a slight uptick in transactions in January the housing market across the US was “still practically frozen”, with transactions considerably lower than the 5.1mn average in the 2010s.

Cash purchases had already been on the rise in certain competitive markets in the US before interest rates began to rise, said Erin Sykes, a real estate agent in New York and Miami and economist for Nest Seekers.

“So many were in cash before because they needed to win the bidding wars and you couldn’t win with the loan contingency,” Sykes said. “So they would buy in cash and then get the loan afterwards.”

But the cash purchases in this higher mortgage rate environment were more opportunistic, she said. “The people aggressive enough to do a transaction now are the people who have liquidity or move counter to the market. They’re not afraid because they see the opportunity to make deals and get in at a lower price.”

Challenges facing buyers in New York have been exacerbated by a chronic shortage of housing that developers have blamed, variously, on regulations that have limited landlords’ ability to increase rents as well as the lapsing of a decades-old tax incentive that underpinned many new buildings. New residential construction project permits also fell sharply last year, according to the Partnership for New York City, down 55 per cent in the final quarter of 2023 from the same quarter of 2022.

Among other remedies, Mayor Eric Adams has supported the idea of converting obsolete office buildings into residential towers. But that is a technically challenging and costly endeavour that may yield a limited number of new apartments, according to architects and developers.

New York’s property supply crunch has brought vacancy rates down from almost 4.5 per cent in 2021 to 1.4 per cent, below the pre-pandemic rate of 3.6 per cent, according to the New York City Comptroller.

“The affordability in New York is rough right now,” Liebman said. “It’s taking a lot of people out of the market.”

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 5th of March 2024 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Covivio SA Raised to Buy From Hold by Jefferies, Target Raised to EUR53.00 From EUR48.00
* EssilorLuxottica Raised to Buy at Equita; PT 228 euros (+)
* Inmobiliaria Colonial Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT 5 euros
* Intesa Sanpaolo Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
* KBC Raised to Buy at Berenberg
* LISI Raised to Buy at IDMidcaps; PT 27.50 euros (+)
* Marks & Spencer Raised to Buy at Redburn; PT 305 pence
* Nordex Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 15 euros
* PVA TePla Raised to Buy at Quirin Privatbank AG; PT 22.90 euros
* Vestas Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 230 kroner

>>> Down
* Alfa Laval Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 385 kronor
* Bank of Ireland Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 10.90 euros
* Deutsche Post AG Cut to Hold at SocGen; PT 46 euros
* EuroAPI Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank; PT 3 euros
* Fluidra Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 23 euros
* Rio Tinto Cut to Hold at Liberum; PT 4,570 pence (+)
* Saint-Gobain Cut to Sell at DZ Bank; PT 64 euros (+)
* Schindler Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 230 Swiss francs
* Siemens Cut to Reduce at HSBC; PT 150 euros
* SKF Cut to Reduce at HSBC; PT 190 kronor
* UniCredit Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 37.70 euros
* Wartsila Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 14 euros

>>> Initiation
* Antin Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 18 euros
* Mediobanca Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley
* Nike Reinstated Buy at CTBC Securities; PT $124
* Novo Reinstated Buy at Citi; PT 975 kroner
* SolGold Rated New Speculative Buy at Argonaut Securities
* Tikehau Capital Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 28 euros
* Vastned Reinstated Hold at ING; PT 22 euros
* Zealand Pharma Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 815 kroner

>>> Call
* Citi’s Montagu Says Bullish Momentum in US Stock Futures Eases
* Covivio Risks Skewed to Upside, Raised to Buy at Jefferies
* Fluidra Cut at Jefferies, Limited Upside to Valuation, Estimates
* Italian Banks’ Fee Recovery Underestimated, Morgan Stanley Says
* KBC Can Outperform Guidance, Upgraded to Buy at Berenberg
* Lindt & Spruengli Shows Strong Pricing Power, Momentum: Vontobel (+)
* Novo Reinstated Buy at Citi on Continued Obesity Strength

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Zealand Pharma (22Z TH) +1.2%
    • Zealand Pharma Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 815 kroner
  • KBC (KDB TH) +0.5%
    • KBC Can Outperform Guidance, Upgraded to Buy at Berenberg
  • Glencore (8GC TH) -1.4%
    • Watch Europe Sectors Exposed to China on Ambitious Growth Goal
  • Lanxess (LXS TH) -1.4%
  • Hermes (HMI TH) -1.4%
  • Deutsche Post AG (DHL TH) -1.5%
    • Deutsche Post AG Cut to Hold at SocGen; PT 46 euros
  • Siemens (SIE TH) -1.5%
  • BE Semiconductor (BSI TH) -1.7%
  • OCI (OIC TH) -1.8%
  • STMicroelectronics (SGM TH) -1.9%
    • AMD Hits US Roadblock in Selling AI Chip Tailored for China
  • Rational (RAA TH) -2.4%
  • Prosus (1TY TH) -3%
    • China Sets GDP Goal That Needs Policy Support ‘From All Fronts

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Infineon (IFX TH) -1.2%
  • Deutsche Post AG (DHL TH) -1.4%
    • Deutsche Post AG Cut to Hold at SocGen; PT 46 euros
  • Siemens (SIE TH) -1.6%
    • Siemens Cut to Reduce at HSBC; PT 150 euros
MDAX:
  • Stroeer (SAX TH) +2.9%
    • Stroeer FY Adjusted Ebitda Meets Estimates
  • Redcare Pharmacy NV (RDC TH) +2.6%
    • Redcare Pharmacy NV Sees 2024 Adjusted Ebitda Margin 2% to 4%
  • Nordex (NDX1 TH) +1.1%
    • Nordex Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 15 euros
  • Hensoldt (HAG TH) -1.2%
  • Aroundtown (AT1 TH) -1.3%
  • SMA Solar (S92 TH) -1.3%
SDAX:
  • SAF-Holland SE (SFQ TH) +1.6%
  • Schaeffler (SHA TH) -1.3%
    • Schaeffler FY Adjusted Ebit Meets Estimates
  • Traton (8TRA TH) -1.6%
    • Traton Sees 2024 Adjusted Operating Margin 8% to 9%, Est. 8.08%
  • AUTO1 (AG1 TH) -4.6%
    • AUTO1 Cut to Hold at Bankhaus Metzler; PT 5.80 euros

>>> What to look at today - 5th of March 2024

Asian equities were mixed Tuesday as investors weighed official announcements from China including an ambitious 5% growth target. Mainland China stocks rose and Japan’s Nikkei 225 index surpassed the 40,000 level it breached Monday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell alongside benchmarks in South Korea and Australia. US equity futures edged lower following a small decline for the S&P 500 on Monday. There’s been a slew of announcements from China’s National People’s Congress, including 5.5% urban unemployment and 3% inflation targets, and steps to support the economy hampered by a property slump and entrenched deflation. The measures got a lukewarm response from investors and strategists in the absence of any big-bang fiscal stimulus. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Tech index fell as much as 4% in a decline that partly reflected a new US government ban on Advanced Micro Devices Inc. selling an artificial intelligence chip tailored for the Chinese market, according to people familiar with the matter. Other measures mentioned by Chinese leaders at the annual parliamentary meetings in Beijing included a 7.2% rise in defense spending, the biggest in five years.  The nation’s premier will defy recent convention by not holding a press briefing for investors to learn more about the policy direction. This may undermine its ability to boost confidence in an economy grappling with a prolonged real estate crisis and headwinds from geopolitical tensions with the US. A Bloomberg Intelligence index of Chinese property developers fell as the country’s property debt crisis showed new signs of trouble with one of the country’s major state-backed developers placed under unprecedented scrutiny by investors. Elsewhere, the yen was steady at around 150 per dollar as price growth in Tokyo surged back above the Bank of Japan’s target in February. The increase supports the case for the central bank’s first interest rate hike since 2007. BOJ Governor Ueda is scheduled to speak later Tuesday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell heads to Capitol Hill for his semiannual testimony before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday and is expected to double down on his message that there’s no rush to cut rates. Fed officials’ most recent quarterly forecast in December was for three quarter-point cuts this year — and the bond market has embraced that view, based on the prices of swap contracts that reference future Fed meeting dates. Nouriel Roubini, the economist known for his bearish outlook ahead of the 2008 global financial crisis, expressed optimism that US growth will remain brisk this year — though that might be a negative for stocks. In commodities, oil prices fell and gold was flat after it surged to near a record high in the previous session. Bitcoin slipped in Asian afternoon trading, declining from near a 2021 record high of around $69,000 to little over $66,800.

Nikkei -0.03% Hang Seng -2.52% CSI +0.37% Shanghai +0.00% Shenzen -0.94%

Eur$ 1.0849 CNH 7.2104 CNY 7.1985 JPY 150.53 GBP 1.2677 CHF 0.8860 RUB 91.4664 TRY 31.6015 WTI$ 78.30 -0.56% Gold 2,117 BTC 67,152 -0.52% ETH 3,715 +3.62%

S&P -0.23% Nasdaq -0.46% EuroStoxx -0.29% FTSE -0.32% Dax -0.39% SMI -0.11%

Macro :
- Citi’s Montagu Says Bullish Momentum in US Stock Futures Eases
- Former Goldman Sachs Partner’s Hedge Fund Plans New York Office
- China to Mobilize Nation as It Fights US for Tech Supremacy
- Biden Says JetBlue-Spirit Deal Cancellation a Win for Consumers
- Bitcoin Bulls May Look Beyond $70,000 to Post-Halving Surges
- Watch Europe Sectors Exposed to China on Ambitious Growth Goal

Keep an eye on :
- AC FP : Hoxton Hotels Owner Ennismore Said to Seek Capital for Expansion
- AIR FP : American Orders 260 Jets in Haul for Boeing, Airbus, Embraer
- ALB US : Albemarle Offers 7%-7.50% Coupon For $1.75B Convertibles: Terms
- BABA US : Alibaba Backs $2.5 Billion AI Startup in Second Major 2024 Deal
- BAYN GY : Bayer 2024 Adjusted Ebitda Forecast Beats Estimates, Provision for Glyphosate Litigation Was $6.3B at Dec. 31
- BAYN GY : Bayer CEO Keeping ‘Open Mind’ on Possible Break-Up, But Not Now
- BLK US : BlackRock Gains as Much as 3.1% Amid Potential Breakout
- BA US : Boeing, Spirit Audit by FAA Finds ‘Multiple’ Quality Lapses
- IAG LN : British Airways Plans to Spend £750 Million on Digital Upgrades
- CLNX SM : Cellnex CEO to Focus on Debt, Higher Returns in Strategy Refresh
- COFA FP : Coface Launches 2024-2027 Strategic Plan, Raises Targets
- DOKA SW : Dormakaba 1H Adjusted Ebitda Beats Estimates
- DIS US : Peltz Publishes Plan to ‘Restore Magic’ at Disney as AGM Looms
- Douglas IPO : Douglas Listing Boosts Hopes of European IPO Revival
- ERA FP : Eramet in Pact to Convert Lossmaking SLN Nickel Unit’s Debt
- FLS DC : FLSmidth Buys Farnell-Thompson Applied Technologies; No Terms
- FORN SW : Forbo FY Ebit Misses Estimates
- GSK LN : Reuters: GSK's new HIV drug formula could support longer dosing intervals https://t.co/5ticLGFbxo https://t.co/Mleswv0jWL
- GRG LN : Greggs FY Pretax Profit Beats Estimates
- HUBN SW : Huber+Suhner FY Ebit Beats Estimates
- IFCN SW : Inficon Sees 2024 Operating Margin About 20%, Est. 20.1%
- KOS US : Kosmos Offers Up to 3.375% Coupon For $300M Convertibles: Terms
- LISN SW : Lindt & Spruengli Sees 2024 Organic Sales +6% to +8%
- MSTR US : MicroStrategy Is Said to Offer 0.5%-1% Coupon For Convertibles
- MITRA BB : Mithra Considers Sale, Enters Bridge Loan Facility
- EGL PL : Mota-Engil FY Net Income EU113M Vs. EU52M Y/y
- NOVOB DC : Eli Lilly in Pacts With National Resilience, BSP Pharma: FT
- PLX FP : Pluxee to Buyback €30m Shares
- RDC GY : Redcare Pharmacy NV Sees 2024 Adjusted Ebitda Margin 2% to 4%
- SHA GY : Schaeffler FY Adjusted Ebit Meets Estimates
- SAX GY : Stroeer FY Adjusted Ebitda Meets Estimates
- SWON SW : SoftwareOne Says Founding Holders Can Vote After Bain Pact Ended
- SCLN SW : Switzerland Sees No Scope to Stop Swisscom Bid For Vodafone Unit
- TSLA US : BANKS STUCK WITH X DEBT HELD REFINANCING TALKS WITH ELON MUSK
- HO FP : Thales FY Ebit Beats Estimates
- TWEKA NA : TKH FY Revenue Matches Estimates
- TTE FP : TotalEnergies Applies to Build LPG Plant in Uganda: New Vision
- 8TRA GY : Traton Sees 2024 Adjusted Operating Margin 8% to 9%, Est. 8.08%
- VACN SW : VAT FY Ebitda Meets Estimates
- VIV FP : Vivendi Boosts MultiChoice Offer, Valuing Shares at $2.9 Billion
- VOD LN : Switzerland Sees No Scope to Stop Swisscom Bid For Vodafone Unit