Weekly Market Update: Earning’s season surged in volume as BTC soared above a faulty moon lander
Out of the tumult from the headiest first quarter of earning’s season, this week recorded another lunar landing, Putin’s vitriolic response to NATO involvement in Ukraine, PMI figures out of China, Germany, Italy, and the US, as BTC lead the bull to its next halving event in April 19th.
Focus lead a favorable eye on the markets influenced by the Jan PCE Deflator reading that came out on Thursday in-line with expectations, likely signaling continued steady moderation for inflation continuing in 2024.
In Asia, satellite images exposed China’s floating barrier in the disputed Scarborough Shoal, Chinese brokerages and funds cut the size of their quantitative tightening, and China’s PMI data expanded a point higher than consensus; Japan’s MUFG analysts anticipate the BoJ to exit from negative rates, and Japan’s CPI data concurred by beating estimates; Taiwan Jan exports improved and Russia again banned gasoline exports for 6 months.
In Europe, Parliament approved 10 second instant money transfers; ECB planned to narrow the corridor between lending and deposit rates; Spain and Germany’s prelim CPIs contracted a point; Italy’s Feb PMI contracted four points, while Russia cited justification for nuclear posturing.
In the US, Trump won Michigan’s Republican Primary (as expected), while Illinois ruled to remove him from the ballot, counting as the third state to do so; Feb S&P Manufacturing PMI rose whereas Feb University of Michigan’s confidence and Jan prelim wholesale inventories contracted. There were also data improvements in crude and Feb Richmond manufacturing index following a trend of other metrics reported throughout the week.
Earnings season peaked in volume as notable companies met with, or were a tad shy of, consensus estimates. Companies of note that beat their consensus were Autodesk, American Tower, Best Buy, Dell, Republic Services, and Workday, among others. INTC announced a new Edge Platform; Toyota is yet to reach a union agreement following their second meeting; DOJ is expected to file an antitrust suit against Apple before the end of March; SEC subpoenaed OpenAI; Airbus is reportedly exploring a purchase agreement for Spirit Aerosystems’ A220 wing plant; BTC crossed the 60k barrier, resting at 62K at the time of writing.
Mon 2/26
(CN) Reportedly new satellite images of the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea show a new floating barrier across its entrance blocking the mouth of the shoal; China said to have removed the barrier a few hours after the Philippines' BFAR vessel left - press
(JP) JAPAN JAN NATIONAL CPI Y/Y: 2.2% V 1.9%E; CPI EX FRESH FOOD (CORE) Y/Y: 2.0% V 1.9%E (Core CPI above target for 22 months, but Jan at slowest pace of rise since Mar 2022)
(RU) Navalny's ally Pevchikh: Navalny was close to being freed in a prisoner swap; Navalny was killed on Feb 16th, while on the evening of Feb 15th I received a confirmation that exchange negotiations were in the final stages
(IL) Palestinian PM Shtayyeh and his govt resign – press
(EU) European Parliament formally approves new law to allow people to transfer money instantly within 10 seconds at any time of the day, including outside business hours, in the same country and to any other EU country; Expected to enter into force formally by Apr 2024 – press
(US) FEB DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY: -11.3 V -15.0E
(US) Fed's Schmid (non-voter; hawk): No need to preemptively adjust policy; Fed is not out of woods on inflation - debut speech
(US) JAN NEW HOME SALES: 661K V 684KE
(US) NY Fed takes $524.96B (v $520.1B prior) in RRP program at 5.30%; 81 participating and accepted counterparties
(US) TREASURY $64B 5-YEAR NOTE AUCTION DRAWS 4.320% V 4.055% PRIOR, BTC 2.41 V 2.31 PRIOR AND 2.49 OVER THE LAST 12
AEP Reports Q4 $1.23 v $1.27e, Rev $4.6B v $5.22Be
CCO Reports Q4 Net $24.8M v $98.7M y/y, Rev $632.1M v $612Me; Guides Q1 strong; Notes out-of-home industry is forecasted to deliver healthy growth in 2024; Initiates sale process for its Latin American businesses alongside Europe-North segment
DPZ Reports Q4 $4.48 v $4.36e, Rev $1.40B v $1.42Be; Announces additional $1B share buyback; Raises Quarterly dividend 24.8% to $1.51 from $1.21 (indicated yield 1.39%)
WDAY Reports Q4 $1.57 v $1.44e, Rev $1.92B v $1.91Be
ZM Reports Q4 $1.42 v $1.15e, Rev $1.15B v $1.13Be; Board authorizes stock repurchase program of up to $1.5B
INTC Announces new Edge Platform, a modular, open software platform enabling enterprises to develop, deploy, run, secure, and manage edge and AI applications at scale with cloud-like simplicity
WFC CFO: Consumer continues to be resilient but expecting some deterioration in credit going ahead - UBS conference comments
Tues 2/27
(RU) Russia to again ban gasoline exports for 6 months from Mar 1st - Russia state media
(RU) Russian govt spokesperson Peskov: French Pres Macron comments about not ruling out sending NATO troops to Ukraine are very important new element; If this happens, talks would have to shift to the inevitability of a conflict with NATO
(IR) Iran reportedly has told militia groups in Iraq and Syria to curtail assaults on targets such as military installations – NYT
(IL) Hamas official: US Pres Biden's comments on halt to Gaza war are premature; Leaked truce proposal does not meet our demands
(TW) Taiwan Jan Export Orders Y/Y: +1.9% v -3.6%e (2nd positive Y/Y pace in 16 months); Sees February orders down between -15.7% and -11% y/y
(JP) MUFG Securities Co. analysts believe BoJ is setting the stage for an exit from negative rates which could come as early as at the next meeting in March
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Raises Q1 GDP forecast from 2.9% to 3.2%
(US) FEB RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING INDEX: -5 V -9E; New Orders -5
(US) Former US Pres Trump wins Michigan Republican Primary (as expected) - US press
(US) JAN PRELIMINARY DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: -6.1% V -5.0%E; DURABLES (EX-TRANSPORTATION): -0.3% V +0.2%E
(US) NY Fed takes $519.7B (v $524.96B prior) in RRP program at 5.30%; 84 participating and accepted counterparties
(US) TREASURY $42B 7-YEAR NOTE AUCTION RESULTS: DRAWS 4.327% V 4.109% PRIOR, BID-TO-COVER RATIO: 2.58 V 2.57 PRIOR AND 2.53 OVER LAST 12 AUCTIONS
7203.JP Yet to reach wage agreement with union in 2nd meeting; Did not respond to the union's wage demand - Japanese press
A Reports Q1 $1.29 v $1.21e, Rev $1.66B v $1.57Be; Guides Q2 light, affirms FY24
AMT Reports FFO Q4 $2.29 v $2.18e, Rev $2.79B v $2.73Be
AAPL Follow up: DOJ expected to file Apple antitrust case before end of March; Apple reportedly met with DOJ last week in a final bid to avert Antitrust Suit - US financial press
BECN Jan Rev per day -4% y/y; Guides Q1 Rev up high single digits y/y - earnings slides
CRI Reports Q4 $2.76 v $2.52e, Rev $857.9M v $869Me; Guides Q1 below est; Raises quarterly dividend 7% to $0.80/shr; Assumes improved macroeconomic environment and consumer demand as the year progresses
GS CEO: Consumer behavior has softened, especially in lower tier of economy; Have work to do to narrow consumer business
RSG Reports Q4 $1.41 v $1.28e, Rev $3.83B v $3.72Be
URBN Reports Q4 $0.69 v $0.73e, Rev $1.49B v $1.49Be; Notes positive customer response to early spring offerings
VKTX Phase 2 VENTURE Trial of Dual GLP-1/GIP Receptor Agonist VK2735 in patients with Obesity achieves primary and all secondary endpoints; Intends to meet with FDA to discuss next steps in development of VK2735 and remain on track to report data from Phase 1 study of oral formulation later this quarter; total of 23 patients (13%) discontinued treatment in study
Weds 2/28
(CN) China Securities Regulator (CSRC): Confirms brokerages and funds to cut size of QT; Vow to enhance law enforcement efficiency; Will guide the securities industry to control business size and leverage
(JP) Japan's University of Tokyo top professor and BOJ counselor Yoshikawa: Of course it’s time for the BOJ to normalize policy; BOJ should make straightforward policy shift [**Note: Yoshikawa said to be a friend of BOJ Gov. Kazuo Ueda for more than five decades]
(RU) FT, citing secret Russian military files drawn up between 2008 and 2014, notes Russia's nuclear posture allows a tactical nuclear weapon to be used to try to prevent Russia from becoming embroiled in a sprawling war, particularly one in which the US might intervene
(RU) Moldova's pro-Russian Transnistria breakaway region asks Russia to protect it against Moldova pressure - press (as speculated)
(US) DOE CRUDE: +4.2M V +2.7ME; GASOLINE: -2.8M V -1.3ME; DISTILLATE: -0.5M V -2.0ME
(US) Fed’s Bostic (dove, voter): Reiterates sees first rate cut in Summer; Still work to do on inflation, haven't declared victory - Q&A
(US) FDA Chief Califf: Very concerned about sales of compounded or fake versions of new weight loss drugs
(US) Illinois judge rules to remove Trump from state ballot in the state; the Trump campaign will appeal the ruling - press [**Note: the third US state to block Trump from a Republican ballot after Colorado and Maine; decisions appealed in Supreme Court]
(US) JAN PRELIMINARY WHOLESALE INVENTORIES M/M: -0.1% V 0.2%E
(US) NY Fed takes $569.9B (v $519.7B prior) in RRP program at 5.30%; 87 participating and accepted counterparties
(US) Q4 PRELIMINARY GDP ANNUALIZED Q/Q: 3.2% V 3.3%E; PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: 3.0% V 2.7%E
(US) Q4 PRELIMINARY GDP PRICE INDEX: Q/Q: 1.6% V 1.5%E; CORE PCE Q/Q: 2.1% V 2.0%E
AAP Reports Q4 -$0.59 (unclear if comp) v $0.24e, Rev $2.50B v $2.47Be; Continues ongoing operational and strategic review of the business, including the separate sales processes for Worldpac and Canadian unit
AMC Reports Q4 -$0.54 v -$0.70e, Rev $1.10B v $1.06Be; Currently expect that the industry box office in 2025 will grow by $1-2B, or more, in size over 2024
BA US FAA gives Boeing 90 days to deliver quality control plan to address systemic quality control issues - FAA statement
BABA Public Cloud President: Cuts again cloud service prices by up to 55% (average price cut is ~20%); impacts >100 products; effective on Thurs. [Feb 29th]
BIDU Reports Q4 (CNY) 21.86 v 17.86e, Rev 35.0B v 35.0Be
BTC/USD *TESTS $60,000 (highest since Nov 2021); Bitcoin price currently up more than 40% MTD in Feb (biggest M/M gain since Dec 2020)
CRM Reports Q4 $2.29 v $2.26e, Rev $9.29B v $9.21Be; Guides initial FY24 EPS above ests; Initiates quarterly dividend of $0.40/shr; Share Repurchase Program authorization increased by $10B
EME Reports Q4 $4.47 v $2.63 y/y, Rev $3.44B v $2.95B y/y; Guides init FY24 strong; To Increase dividend 39% to $0.25/shr in Q2-24
FWRD Reports Q4 $0.81 v $0.97e, Rev $338.4M v $399Me
HPQ Reports Q1 $0.81 v $0.82e, Rev $13.2B v $13.6Be
NTNX Reports Q2 $0.46 v $0.29e, Rev $565.2M v $552Me; Raises outlook
OPENAI.IPO SEC subpoenaed OpenAi after ouster of CEO Altman last year; the regulator is probing if investors were misled – WSJ
TJX Reports Q4 $1.12 adj v $1.12e, Rev $16.4B v $16.2Be; Plans to raise quarterly dividend 13% to $0.375/shr and $2.0-2.5B share buyback for FY25 (up to 2.2% of market cap)
WLN.FR Reports FY23 Rev €4.61B v €4.61Be
Thurs 2/29
(CN) CHINA FEB CAIXIN PMI MANUFACTURING: 50.9 V 50.7E (4th month of expansion)
(CN) CHINA FEB MANUFACTURING PMI (GOVT OFFICIAL): 49.1 V 49.0E (5th month of contraction)
(DE) GERMANY FEB PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.4% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 2.5% V 2.6%E
(DE) GERMANY FEB UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +11.0K V +5.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS RATE: 5.9% V 5.8%E
(EU) Reportedly ECB plans to narrow corridor between lending and deposit rates, bringing lending rate closer to its 4.0% deposit rate; To continue putting a "floor" under market interest rates in the years to come, but banks will play a greater role in deciding how much liquidity they want – press
(EU) ECB’s Holzmann (Austria, ultrahawk): Serious ECB rate cut discussion unlikely before June
(EU) Estonia PM Kallas: Western leaders must Not rule out sending ground troops to Ukraine; Everything on table to help Ukraine beat Putin
(ES) SPAIN FEB PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.3% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 2.8% V 2.8%E (lowest annual pace since Aug 2023)
(RU) RUSSIA PRES PUTIN: 'DO NOT THEY UNDERSTAND THERE IS A DANGER OF NUCLEAR CONFLICT?' - ANNUAL PARLIAMENT ADDRESS
(RU) Russia Pres Putin: Strategic forces are combat ready; Not planning to deploy nuclear weapons in space; Our military has gained colossal combat experience - annual parliament address
(UR) Ukraine reportedly sees risks that Russia will break through its defence by summer 2024 unless western partners increase ammunition supplies - press
(US) BOFA INSTITUTE: WEEK-TO-FEB 24TH TOTAL CARD SPENDING +0.4% Y/Y V -0.2% AVG IN JAN; OVERALL SPENDING REMAINED SOFT BUT STABLE IN FEB
(US) FEB CHICAGO PURCHASE MANAGER’S INDEX (PMI): 44.0 V 48.0E
(US) Fed's Goolsbee (non-voter for 2024); Even with Jan PCE data showing a month of rebound, should be careful to extrapolate
(US) JAN PENDING HOME SALES M/M: -4.9% V +1.5%E; Y/Y: -6.8% V -4.4%E
(US) JAN PERSONAL INCOME: 1.0% V 0.4%E; PERSONAL SPENDING: 0.2% V 0.2%E
(US) JAN PCE DEFLATOR M/M: 0.3% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 2.4% V 2.4%E (lowest annual pace since Apr 2021)
(US) Nevada reports Jan casino gaming Rev $1.28B, +0.5% y/y, Las Vegas strip Rev $686.2M, -3.8% y/y
ADSK Reports Q4 $2.09 v $1.95e, Rev $1.47B v $1.43Be
BBY Reports Q4 $2.72 v $2.51e, Rev $14.7B v $14.5Be; Raises quarterly dividend 2.2% to $0.94 from $0.92 (indicated yield 4.72%)
DELL Reports Q4 $2.20 v $1.73e, Rev $22.3B v $22.1Be; To increase dividend 20%
Fri 3/1
(CN) China end-Feb Standing Lending Facility (SLF) at CNY0M (nil) v CNY2.70B m/m
(CN) US Commerce Dept opens probe into Chinese-made vehicles; More reports that Biden Admin reportedly may ban or restrict Chinese vehicle imports citing national security risks – press
(DE) GERMANY FEB FINAL MANUFACTURING PMI: 42.5 V 42.3E (confirms 20th straight contraction)
(EU) EURO ZONE FEB ADVANCE CPI ESTIMATE Y/Y: 2.6% V 2.5%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 3.1% V 2.9%E (lowest Core CPI since spring 2022)
(IT) ITALY FEB PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.1% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 0.8% V 1.0%E
(IT) ITALY FEB PMI MANUFACTURING: 48.7 V 49.1E (11th straight contraction)
(RU) Russia Pres Putin: Reiterates Russia is not planning to deploy nuclear weapons in space
(US) Apollo's Chief Economist Slok: Fed will Not cut rates in 2024, US economy is simply not slowing down and Fed will spend most of 2024 fighting inflation
(US) FEB FINAL S&P MANUFACTURING PMI: 52.2 V 51.5E
(US) FEB FINAL UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 76.9 V 79.6E
KNIN.CH CEO: Volumes for sea freight have normalized in Q4; The trend will continue in 2024 - post earnings comments
PLUG Reports FY23 -$2.30 v -$1.25, Rev $891M v $872Me