>>> Up
* ADP Raised to Neutral at Redburn; PT 125 euros
* AUTO1 Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 4.60 euros
* BNP Paribas Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 82.60 euros
* Detection Tech Oy Raised to Buy at Inderes; PT 15.50 euros
* Detection Tech Oy Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 16 euros (+)
* Emeis Raised to Hold at SocGen; PT 14 euros
* Enel Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 7.50 euros
* F-Secure Raised to Buy at Inderes; PT 2.20 euros
* Generali Raised to Add at AlphaValue/Baader
* Inwido Cut to Hold at Handelsbanken (+)
* JM Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 245 kronor
* Lonza Raised to Buy at Mirabaud Securities; PT 580 Swiss francs
* Luceco Raised to Buy at Numis; PT 165 pence (+)
* LVMH Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 937 euros
* Marimekko Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 12.50 euros
* Porsche AG Raised to Buy at Berenberg
* Rubis Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 36 euros (+)
* Santander Raised to Overweight at Barclays
* Santander Raised to Overweight at Barclays
* Seagate Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $115
* Technogym Raised to Neutral at Banca Akros (ESN); PT 9 euros (++)
* Terveystalo Raised to Buy at Inderes; PT 8.70 euros
* Zoo Digital Group Raised to Buy at Panmure Gordon; PT 41 pence (+)
>>> Down
>>> Down
* Assa Abloy Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 325 kronor
* BBVA Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays
* Bellway Cut to Add at Numis; PT 3,000 pence (+)
* CA Immo Cut to Accumulate at SRC Research; PT 33 euros
* Cembre Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 44 euros
* Dr Martens Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT 87 pence
* Lagercrantz Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 170 kronor
* Mobico Group Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT 80 pence
* Schweiter Cut to Add at Baader Helvea; PT 557 Swiss francs
* Schweiter Cut to Add at Baader Helvea; PT 557 Swiss francs
* Stellantis Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 29 euros
* UCB Cut to Hold at SocGen; PT 127 euros
>>> Initiation
>>> Initiation
* Air Liquide Resumed Buy at Goldman (+)
* Bankinter Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays
* Bawag Reinstated Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 79 euros
* Carmila Cut to Sell at SocGen; PT 15.40 euros (+)
* Carnival Rated New Buy at Mizuho Securities; PT $21
* DSM-Firmenich Resumed Buy at Goldman (+)
* Hilton Grand Vacations Rated New Buy at Mizuho Securities
* Experian Rated New Hold at SocGen; PT 3,300 pence
* Givaudan Resumed Buy at Goldman (+)
* Lanxess Resumed Buy at Goldman (+)
* Las Vegas Sands Rated New Buy at Mizuho Securities; PT $70
* Marriott Intl Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $263
* Marriott Vacations Rated New Buy at Mizuho Securities; PT $128
* Mercialys Cut to Hold at SocGen; PT 11.10 euros (+)
* MGM Resorts Rated New Buy at Mizuho Securities; PT $61
* Norwegian Cruise Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $21
* Novonesis Resumed Buy at Goldman (+)
* Piovan Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 15.40 euros
* Symrise Resumed Sell at Goldman (+)
* Umicore Assumed Sell at Goldman (+)
* Unicaja Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays
* Unicaja Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays
* Vail Resorts Rated New Buy at Mizuho Securities; PT $256
>>> Call
>>> Call
* Europe Positioning Is Increasingly Bullish Vs US: Citi’s Montagu (+)
* BNP Paribas Upgraded at Goldman on Better Operating Backdrop (+)
* Europe Automakers in Transition Year, Berenberg Cuts Stellantis
* Auto1 Upgraded at Morgan Stanley, Still Faces ‘Balancing Act’
* Auto1 Upgraded at Morgan Stanley, Still Faces ‘Balancing Act’
* Enel Upgraded at Morgan Stanley on Strategic Opportunities
* Mobico Loses Clean Sweep of Buys, RBC Sees More Reward Elsewhere
* Porsche's 911, eMacan Bid to Expand Margin, Close Gap to Ferrari
* Santander Raised, BBVA Cut at Barclays in Spanish Banks Coverage
- BAE (BSP TH) +2.2%
- Prosus (1TY TH) +2.2%
- Dassault Aviation (DAU0 TH) +1.9%
- Thales (CSF TH) +1.5%
- Enel (ENL TH) +1.2%
- Enel Upgraded at Morgan Stanley on Strategic Opportunities
- Kerry Group (KRZ TH) +1.2%
- Leonardo (FMNB TH) +1.1%
- Saab (SDV TH) +1.1%
- Porsche AG (P911 TH) +0.7%
- Porsche’s 911, eMacan Bid to Expand Margin, Close Gap to Ferrari
- Puma (PUM TH) -1%
- UMG (0VD TH) -1%
- Qiagen (QIA TH) -1%
- NIBE Industrier (NJB TH) -1.4%
- Akzo Nobel (AKU1 TH) -1.4%
- FUCHS SE (FPE3 TH) -1.5%
- Symrise (SY1 TH) -1.6%
- Symrise Resumed Sell at Goldman
DAX:
- Porsche AG (P911 TH) +0.9%
- Europe Automakers in Transition Year, Berenberg Cuts Stellantis
- Rheinmetall (RHM TH) +0.7%
- Rheinmetall’s MSCI ESG Rating Lowered to A from AA
- Bayer (BAYN TH) +0.6%
- Siemens Energy (ENR TH) -0.6%
- UBS Group AG Raised Siemens Energy Voting Rights to 5.02%
- Symrise (SY1 TH) -0.9%
MDAX:
- Hensoldt (HAG TH) +4.3%
- Nordex (NDX1 TH) +1.5%
- Freenet (FNTN TH) +0.7%
SDAX:
- KWS Saat (KWS TH) +5.9%
- KWS Sells South American Corn Business, Breeding Licenses to GDM
- AUTO1 (AG1 TH) +3.6%
- AUTO1 Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 4.60 euros
- CompuGroup (COP TH) +2.8%
- SFC Energy (F3C TH) +2.6%
- Hornbach Holding (HBH TH) +2%
- Hornbach Holding FY Sales Meets Estimates
- JOST Werke SE (JST TH) -2.4%
- JOST Werke SE Sees 2024 Adj Ebit Margin 10% to 11.5%, Est. 10.4%
Asian stocks erased earlier gains amid cautious trading before quarter-end and the release of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure later this week. MSCI’s Asian equity gauge was little changed following a two-day decline. US stock futures were flat after the S&P 500 Index fell Monday. South Korea’s Kospi outperformed, supported by local chip shares.
The offshore yuan strengthened for a second day after China’s central bank reinforced its support for the currency. The yen swung between gains and losses after dropping to a four-month low against the dollar last week. There are plenty of reasons for investors to be cautious given the number of risk events in coming days. The US government will publish its personal consumption expenditures price index on Good Friday when local markets will be closed. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to speak on the same day. There’s also uncertainty surrounding the yen, with Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki saying Tuesday the government will take appropriate steps against excessive currency moves, without ruling out any measures. Dollar-yen is likely to stay above 150, according to Mitul Kotecha, head of foreign exchange and emerging market macro strategy Asia at Barclays Bank Plc in Singapore. Treasuries edged higher in Asian trade, while the dollar weakened against most of its Group-of-10 peers. China’s central bank reinforced its support for the yuan by strengthening its daily reference rate for the managed currency by the most since January. The People’s Bank of China shifted its fixing by 0.1% with traders still on tenterhooks after the yuan sank to its weakest since November on Friday.
A sense of prudence has prevailed among investors this week as concern about a disconnect between earnings expectations and share prices have grown. Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists were the latest to warn it’ll be hard to justify lofty valuations if profit acceleration fails to materialize. In a sign of how overheated the stock market has been, the S&P 500 finished last week 14% above its 200-day moving average. Still, the combination of healthy US economic data, expectations the Fed will cut rates and optimism about artificial intelligence have all driven the S&P 500 up almost 10% this year. In other markets, oil was little changed after the biggest gain in a week, with OPEC+ set to affirm its policy of production cuts amid tensions in the Middle East and Russia. Gold hovered near a record high. US After Hours NARI +6.2% and APPF +4.7% jumping on index change; WPRT -11.6% down on earnings.
Nikkei -0.04% Hang Seng +1.32% CSI +0.56% Shanghai +0.19% Shenzen +0.25%
Eur$ 1.0850 CNH 7.2413 CNY 7.2176 JPY 151.32 GBP 1.2658 CHF 0.8998 RUB 92.9000 TRY 32.1721 WTI$ 81.90 -0.05% Gold 2,172 BTC 70,576 -0.52% ETH 3,640 +0.30%
S&P +0.19% Nasdaq +0.28% EuroStoxx +0.06% FTSE -0.25% Dax +0.10% SMI +0.29%
Macro :
- Chocolate Set for Supply Crisis on Cocoa’s Record-Breaking Surge
- Top Pictet Fund Manager Sees Biotech Stocks Joining AI-Euphoria
- European Telecom Stocks Not Yet Value as Media Priced for Growth
Keep an eye on :
Keep an eye on :
- AF FP : Air France-KLM Repaid €452M of Oceane ‘26 Bonds
- ALV GY : Pimco Holding Smaller Than Usual Position in US Treasuries: FT
- ARGX BB : Argenx Gets Approval of Vyvgart in Japan for Adults With ITP
- ATO FP : Atos Says It Has Entered Conciliation to Reach Refinancing Deal
- AAG GY : Aumann Sees 2024 Ebitda Margin 9% to 11%, Est. 10.1% (2 Est.)
- BALN SW : Baloise FY Profit Misses Estimates
- BALN SW : Baloise Recommends Holders Vote Against ZCapital AGM Proposal
- CABK SM : CaixaBank Cuts Telefonica Stake With Equity Swap Settlement
- ALCRB FP : Carbios joins Paris Good Fashion to accelerate textile circularity and contribute to more sustainable fashion
- CO FP : Casino to Issue New Shares as Part of Safeguard Plan
- CO FP : Casino to Issue New Shares as Part of Safeguard Plan
- CLNX SM :
- EVT GY : CTS Eventim FY Dividend per Share Misses Estimates
- DBHN GY : Deutsche Bahn Reaches Deal With Train Drivers, Ending Strikes
- ENGI FP : CFE, Engie to Double Yucatan Pipeline Capacity: Economista
- FBK IM : ECB Concludes Neither FinecoBank nor LHV Face Capital Shortfall
- FSR US : Fisker Says Delisting May Trigger Notes Buyback, Cause Default
- FNAC FP : Fnac Darty to Buy Back EUR512 Million of Outstanding Notes due 2024, 2026
- GTT FP : Getlink Group Names Géraldine Périchon as Deputy CEO
- GLEN LN : Glencore to Start Resuming Normal Ops at McArthur River Mine
- HBH GY : Hornbach Holding FY Sales Meets Estimates
- ISP IM : Intesa CEO Messina Total Compensation for 2023 Amounts to €7.2m
- KWS GY : KWS Sells South American Corn Business, Breeding Licenses to GDM
- LOGIB SS : Logistea Offering of 18.9m Shares Prices at SEK13.20/Share
- MASI US : Masimo considering JV for consumer division: WSJ
- P911 GY : Porsche's 911, eMacan Bid to Expand Margin, Close Gap to Ferrari
- PRYME NO : Pryme Offering of 12.7m Shares Prices at EU0.95/Share
- QDT FP : Quadient FY Net Sales Misses Estimates
- RWAY IM : RAI Way 4Q Operating Profit Misses Est.; Core Rev. €316m in '27
- RUI FP : Plantations des Terres Rouges Raises Rubis Stake to 5.03%: AMF
- SBBB SS : SBB CEO Leiv Synnes Buys 50,000 D Shares in Company
- SKAB SS : Skanska Signs Contract Amendment Worth About SEK2.2b
- STLAM IM : Italy Contacted Tesla on Truck Production in Country: Sole
- TE FP : Technip Energies and LanzaTech Selected by the US Department of Energy to Receive $200M Investment for Breakthrough, Replicable
- TEF SM : Spanish Government Buys €698 Million Stake in Telefonica
- TSLA US : Italy Contacted Tesla on Truck Production in Country: Sole
- VLA FP : Valneva Starts Phase 1 Trial of Second-Generation Zika Vaccine
- VOD LN : Vodafone, Three UK Merger Looks Unlikely Without Strong Remedies
- WAC GY : Wacker Neuson Sees 2024 Revenue EU2.4B to EU2.6B, Est. EU2.48B
>>> Up
* ADP Raised to Neutral at Redburn; PT 125 euros
* AUTO1 Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 4.60 euros
* BNP Paribas Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 82.60 euros
* Detection Tech Oy Raised to Buy at Inderes; PT 15.50 euros
* Emeis Raised to Hold at SocGen; PT 14 euros
* Enel Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 7.50 euros
* F-Secure Raised to Buy at Inderes; PT 2.20 euros
* Generali Raised to Add at AlphaValue/Baader
* JM Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 245 kronor
* Lonza Raised to Buy at Mirabaud Securities; PT 580 Swiss francs
* LVMH Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 937 euros
* Marimekko Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 12.50 euros
* Porsche AG Raised to Buy at Berenberg
* Santander Raised to Overweight at Barclays
* Santander Raised to Overweight at Barclays
* Seagate Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $115
* Terveystalo Raised to Buy at Inderes; PT 8.70 euros
>>> Down
>>> Down
* Assa Abloy Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 325 kronor
* BBVA Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays
* CA Immo Cut to Accumulate at SRC Research; PT 33 euros
* Cembre Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 44 euros
* Dr Martens Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT 87 pence
* Lagercrantz Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 170 kronor
* Mobico Group Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT 80 pence
* Schweiter Cut to Add at Baader Helvea; PT 557 Swiss francs
* Schweiter Cut to Add at Baader Helvea; PT 557 Swiss francs
* Stellantis Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 29 euros
* UCB Cut to Hold at SocGen; PT 127 euros
>>> Initiation
>>> Initiation
* Bankinter Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays
* Bawag Reinstated Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 79 euros
* Carnival Rated New Buy at Mizuho Securities; PT $21
* Hilton Grand Vacations Rated New Buy at Mizuho Securities
* Experian Rated New Hold at SocGen; PT 3,300 pence
* Las Vegas Sands Rated New Buy at Mizuho Securities; PT $70
* Marriott Intl Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $263
* Marriott Vacations Rated New Buy at Mizuho Securities; PT $128
* MGM Resorts Rated New Buy at Mizuho Securities; PT $61
* Norwegian Cruise Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $21
* Piovan Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 15.40 euros
* Unicaja Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays
* Unicaja Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays
* Vail Resorts Rated New Buy at Mizuho Securities; PT $256
>>> Call
>>> Call
* Europe Automakers in Transition Year, Berenberg Cuts Stellantis
* Auto1 Upgraded at Morgan Stanley, Still Faces ‘Balancing Act’
* Auto1 Upgraded at Morgan Stanley, Still Faces ‘Balancing Act’
* Enel Upgraded at Morgan Stanley on Strategic Opportunities
* Mobico Loses Clean Sweep of Buys, RBC Sees More Reward Elsewhere
* Porsche's 911, eMacan Bid to Expand Margin, Close Gap to Ferrari
* Santander Raised, BBVA Cut at Barclays in Spanish Banks Coverage
Unwinding British QE may end up costing £100bn. Could that have been avoided?
The Bank of England can learn from history
By the time the Bank of England’s quantitative tightening programme is completed, quantitative easing will have cost British taxpayers £100bn, according to the latest forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility.
That is a dreadfully large amount of money. The final figure won’t be known until the vehicle in which the assets bought in the programme — the Bank of England Asset Purchase Facility Fund (APF) — is wound up many years from now, but it’s hard to see how it won’t be big and negative. It will be a constant drag upon the UK’s economy.
But, like it or not, the losses are there and have got to be paid. Perhaps the most important thing, right now, is to try to understand how we got here. It’s a sound principle of public finance that somebody identifiable should be responsible when debts are incurred. In this case, accountability for the losses is obscure.
In launching quantitative easing, the powers that be (or, rather, were), took a risk. Initially, QE provided a positive tailwind to the public finances; now, it is backfiring.
So the fundamental question is one of risk management — whose responsibility was it?
In an August 2016 letter from then-Governor Mark Carney to then-Chancellor Philip Hammond, the former said that role lay with the Bank, which “[a]lthough indemnified . . . risk manages the APF on behalf of HMT”.
So, on paper, it was Threadneedle Street’s job. But this framing never made real sense. Whatever Carney said, the Treasury’s indemnity is, and was, the practical expression of the Treasury’s acceptance of responsibility for the risks.
The nature of the risks depends on the nature of the assets. The Bank of England Governor and executive managers decided early on that the APF would confine its purchases as far as possible to gilts, and the Treasury did not demur. The decision implied a lot of interest rate risk. For the Bank, it was a matter of doctrine, not financial risk management. The Monetary Policy Committee was allowed no say in the matter.
For its part, the MPC ignores profit and loss in its deliberations, seemingly also as a matter of principle. Here’s deputy governor Sir Dave Ramsden discussing its approach last year:
The MPC must focus on the overall impact on money stability, on achieving the inflation target, and on getting inflation down from the current 10% back to the 2% inflation target. The MPC is aware of the cash flow consequences, but the MPC is thinking about its objective, which is for monetary stability for hitting the inflation target.
This is a bad principle, and a bad approach. The losses from QE cannot be seen as separate from monetary policy: they are so large as to significantly increase the risk of the public finances becoming unsustainable and of fiscal dominance of monetary policy. That would undermine the MPC’s objective, and the MPC should be concerned about it.
But this is all theoretical — what about the actual monitoring of risk? Initially, senior bank staff apparently didn’t understand the interest rate risk, or even realise that there was any risk, based on the findings of the House of Commons Treasury select committee’s January report on quantitative tightening.
Much lower down the hierarchy, risks were carefully quantified and reported throughout — but nobody did anything about them. Perhaps this was understandable in the early days, when QE was an emergency measure, but — as it metamorphosed into the main instrument of monetary policy — a reassessment was badly needed.
Was it essential that QE be carried out exactly as it was? Was there no other, less financially-risky policy that could have achieved the same macroeconomic result?
Actually, maybe there was. Purchases of privately-issued assets (or loans against such assets) might have achieved the same result — or probably better, because they would have made it easier for banks to meet new regulatory liquidity requirements, and thus to extend more credit after the crisis. And they would almost certainly have been much less costly.
Unfortunately, once QE as we know it was in train, none of the people who really mattered — Treasury officials and the executive managers of the Bank — seem to have thought very hard about the alternatives. The doctrine of concentrating on gilts prevailed without much recorded debate or explanation.
If you can’t see where responsibility lies, then the management structure isn’t working — and needs to be redesigned. The Treasury obviously needs to pay closer attention to the risks against which it has issued indemnities. Yes, it should not have taken the temporary cash flow surplus from the APF and frittered it away — thanks, George Osborne — but, moreover, in over-respecting the Bank of England’s independence it surrendered its own objectives for debt management.
The Bank, meanwhile, needs to stop ignoring the side-effects of its decisions. A good start would be to consolidate its decision-making committees into a single executive board, which in setting policy would consider its effect on all of the Bank’s objectives. And the Bank should get closer to the Debt Management Office.
To be fair, the Bank has evidently recognised that there are problems with its structure, and has, for example, revised the ‘concordat’ that prevented the MPC from expressing a view about what assets the Bank should buy in QE. But even if it wanted to, the Bank couldn’t make the necessary comprehensive reform without new legislation. The QE episode shows how expensive malfunctioning structures can be.
This is not a proposal to weaken the independence of the Bank of England or modify its objectives. Its purpose is to recognise the fact that actions taken in pursuit of one objective can prejudice other objectives. Refusal to face that fact is the real threat to the Bank’s independence.
A 5,5 %, le dérapage du déficit public 2023 place le gouvernement dans l’embarras
Sous l’effet du ralentissement de la croissance et de la baisse des recettes fiscales, le déficit public, annoncé mardi par l’Insee, a largement dépassé les prévisions du gouvernement en 2023.
Rarement quelques dixièmes de point auront-ils été autant attendus, scrutés et commentés. Le déficit public pour 2023 s’est finalement élevé à 5,5 % selon les données publiées mardi 26 mars par l’Insee, chargée en France de le mesurer. Soit 0,6 point de plus que les 4,9 % prévus par Bercy.
Le gouvernement avait préparé les esprits à une mauvaise nouvelle depuis plusieurs semaines. Dans un entretien au Monde le 6 mars, le ministre de l’économie, Bruno Le Maire, affirmait qu’« en raison de la perte de recettes fiscales en 2023 », le chiffre serait « significativement au-delà des 4,9 % ». Un effet du ralentissement de la croissance qui a poussé Bercy à revoir ses prévisions macroéconomiques pour 2024 à la mi-février, et à annoncer un nouveau train d’économies budgétaires de 10 milliards d’euros pour l’Etat avec effet immédiat. Prévue à 1,4 % dans la loi de finances pour 2024, la croissance du PIB est désormais attendue à 1 % cette année – ce que nombre d’économistes jugent encore trop optimiste.
L’impact du ralentissement sur les finances publiques est presque mécanique : les budgétaires estiment qu’un point de croissance en moins par rapport aux prévisions plombe le déficit de 0,5 point de PIB, le taux de prélèvements obligatoires étant, en France, proche de 50 % de la richesse produite (le point de PIB équivaut quant à lui à un peu plus de 25 milliards d’euros). Plus le déficit 2023 se creuse, plus l’objectif que le gouvernement s’est fixé pour 2024 devient difficile à atteindre : pour l’heure, Bercy table toujours sur un solde public ramené à 4,4 % cette année.
Des trajectoires jamais respectées
Le rythme du redressement des comptes publics demeure plus lent en France qu’ailleurs en Europe. Paris devrait actualiser ses chiffres à l’occasion du programme de stabilité, un document transmis chaque année à Bruxelles en avril, qui détaille comment la France compte ramener son déficit sous les 3 % du PIB en 2027. L’exercice a perdu de sa pertinence au fil du temps, les trajectoires n’étant jamais respectées, et ne sera plus obligatoire à partir de 2025 en vertu de la réforme des règles européennes. La Cour des comptes n’en évalue pas moins dans son dernier rapport annuel à 50 milliards les économies que le gouvernement doit dégager pour revenir sous les 3 % en 2027.
La succession de mauvaises surprises budgétaires alimente depuis plusieurs semaines les critiques des oppositions, sans que celles-ci ne formulent réellement de propositions de réduction des dépenses. Depuis que Bruno Le Maire a corrigé ses chiffres le 18 février et annoncé 10 milliards d’euros d’économies moins de deux mois après l’adoption du budget, la droite comme la gauche lui reprochent d’avoir tardé à faire toute la lumière sur la situation des comptes publics en dépit de signaux convergents.
Le rapporteur de la commission des finances du Sénat, Jean-François Husson, élu LR, s’est ainsi invité à Bercy jeudi 21 mars en vertu des pouvoirs dont il dispose pour obtenir des chiffres, dénonçant la « rétention d’informations » du gouvernement, qui disposait selon lui déjà d’une note en décembre évaluant le déficit de 2023 à 5,2 % du PIB, en plein examen du projet de loi de finances au Parlement.
« Vous nous présentez un plan de réduction de 10 milliards d’euros des dépenses publiques, parce que vous vous êtes complètement plantés dans vos prévisions de croissance », avait raillé le député LFI David Guiraud le 6 mars face aux deux ministres de Bercy auditionnés par la commission des finances de l’Assemblée. « Alors qu’aucun organisme n’avait estimé crédible votre prévision de croissance du PIB de 1,4 % en septembre 2023, vous venez de revoir votre prévision à 1 % », avait pointé de son côté le député Libertés, indépendants, outre-mer et territoires Charles de Courson. Le gouvernement s’est toujours défendu d’avoir cherché à dissimuler la vérité des chiffres, et se retranche derrière les organisations internationales, comme le FMI, l’OCDE ou encore la commission européenne, dont les prévisions étaient relativement proches des siennes à l’automne, quoique toutes inférieures.
L’ampleur de la correction à mener a toutefois fait l’objet de débats au sein du gouvernement. Bruno Le Maire était favorable à l’option d’un budget rectificatif dès le début d’année – un geste censé permettre d’aller plus loin que les 10 milliards d’économies réalisées par décret, et donc plafonnés par les textes. Mais la voie d’un budget rectificatif a été jugée trop lourde et périlleuse politiquement, surtout à quelques mois des élections européennes. Même si les annulations de crédit ont suscité beaucoup d’émotion dans les ministères concernés, dont certains en ont appelé à l’arbitrage de Matignon, le décret avait de fait l’avantage de la rapidité.
Trouver de nouveaux gisements d’économies
La question d’un nouveau texte budgétaire reste ouverte pour la suite de l’exercice 2024. L’aggravation du déficit 2023 risque de contraindre Bercy à trouver de nouveaux gisements d’économies – ou de moindres dépenses – dès cette année, surtout si les recettes fiscales ne se redressent pas. Le chef de l’Etat souhaite à tout prix éviter de passer par le Parlement compte tenu de la configuration politique. Le projet de loi de règlement, qui solde chaque année l’exécution budgétaire de la précédente et doit arriver en mai dans l’Hémicycle, inquiète déjà dans la majorité, alors même que le texte ne présente aucun enjeu politique.
En attendant, Bruno Le Maire, le ministre délégué aux comptes publics Thomas Cazenave, la ministre du travail Catherine Vautrin et le ministre délégué à la santé Frédéric Valletoux réunissent ce jeudi les responsables de la majorité en séminaire pour évoquer les pistes de baisses de dépenses, l’hypothèse de hausses d’impôts étant pour l’instant écartée par l’exécutif malgré des pressions croissantes dans la majorité. L’Etat ayant déjà été largement mis à contribution, Emmanuel Macron entend mettre à contribution la sphère sociale, qui représente la moitié des dépenses publiques, ainsi les collectivités locales, dont les dépenses ont augmenté plus vite que l’inflation.
« Il faut voir la magnitude, la raison de ce dérapage et voir derrière d’où il vient et donc qui y contribue », a indiqué le chef de l’Etat à l’issue d’un sommet européen à Bruxelles vendredi 22 mars. « La dépense publique n’est pas faite que de la dépense d’Etat », a-t-il ajouté, visant sans les nommer les collectivités locales et les dépenses sociales. L’exécutif ne fait pas mystère de son intention de mener une nouvelle réforme de l’assurance chômage, de réduire les frais de transport médicaux, et de remettre à plat la prise en charge des maladies chroniques.
Des revues de dépenses ont été lancées et doivent aboutir dans les prochains jours afin d’identifier des pistes d’économies pour 2025. La Cour des comptes a été chargée de plancher sur le sujet des collectivités territoriales, la régulation des dépenses de santé, et la sortie des dispositifs de crise. Bercy travaille de son côté sur les aides aux entreprises, les dispositifs en faveur de la jeunesse, les politiques de l’emploi, la formation professionnelle et l’apprentissage, les dispositifs médicaux, les affections de longue durée, les aides au secteur du cinéma, l’absentéisme dans la fonction publique, et les mesures de maîtrise des dépenses immobilières des ministères sous loi de programmation.