>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Continental (CON TH) +6.2%
    • Continental’s Struggling Auto Unit Banks on China Growth in 2H
  • OCI (OIC TH) +2.9%
    • OCI Upgraded to Buy at Jefferies on Improved Risk Profile
  • Sartorius (SRT3 TH) +2.4%
  • Repsol (REP TH) +1.9%
  • Smith & Nephew (NPW1 TH) +1.5%
    • Smith & Nephew Plc SN. TR1: Notification of Major Holdings
  • Lufthansa (LHA TH) +1.2%
  • Novo (NOV TH) -1.2%
  • Hugo Boss (BOSS TH) -1.7%
    • Hugo Boss Could Post a Downbeat 2Q — Market Talk: DJ

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Continental (CON TH) +6.1%
    • Continental’s Struggling Auto Unit Banks on China Growth in 2H
  • Sartorius (SRT3 TH) +1.8%
MDAX:
  • Redcare Pharmacy NV (RDC TH) +5.1%
    • Redcare Pharmacy NV Prelim 2Q Revenue EU560M
  • Lufthansa (LHA TH) +1.5%
  • Hugo Boss (BOSS TH) -1.5%
SDAX:
  • Patrizia (PAT TH) +2%
  • Duerr (DUE TH) +1.7%
  • Hornbach Holding (HBH TH) +1.5%
  • Kontron (KTN TH) +1.3%
  • MLP (MLP TH) -0.9%

>>> What to look at today - 4th of July 2024 {US} {US} {US} {US}

Stocks in Asia rose after economic data supported the case for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, and the yen bounced off its lowest level against the dollar since 1986. The MSCI Asia-Pacific gauge hit its highest point in over two years, with technology shares contributing the most to the rally. Japan’s Topix hit a record intraday high and equities in South Korea, Australia and China also advanced. US futures contracts were little changed after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hit records in a shortened session ahead of a US holiday. The yen strengthened after once again touching its lowest level since 1986 against the greenback in the previous session. Speculation persists that the Bank of Japan will tighten policy only gradually. A gauge of dollar weakened for the third successive session. Global stocks are on course for their longest stretch of weekly gains since March on the back of a string of soft economic data in the US, which has brought the idea of September rate cuts back on table. On Wednesday, reports showed the American services sector contracted at the fastest pace in four years, while the labor market saw further signs of softening. Minutes from the Fed’s June policy meeting showed officials were awaiting evidence that inflation is cooling and were divided on how long to keep rates elevated. Swap traders projected almost two rate cuts in 2024, with the first in November — though bets on a September reduction increased.  Treasury 10-year yields were steady after dropping seven basis points to 4.36% in the prior session, which weighed on an index of dollar strength. Elsewhere in Asia, Chinese electric-car brands held on to their share of the slumping European EV market in May. Automakers like BYD Co. made up 8.7% of total EV sales, roughly on par with a year ago, as Chinese firms pressure European counterparts with new, inexpensive models.  Meanwhile, Britons prepared to head to the polls in a general election Thursday. The pound was little changed in early Asian trading. Investors will now keep an close eye on Friday’s US jobs report. Economists anticipate a 190,000 gain in June nonfarm payrolls — less than the previous month — with the unemployment rate holding at 4%. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said there’s still a lot of data the US central bank needs to see before gaining the confidence to cut interest rates.  Separately, traders are watching for indications if President Joe Biden will drop out of the US presidential race. Wall Street has started shifting money to and from the dollar, Treasuries and other assets that would be impacted if his rival Donald Trump returns to office. In commodities, gold gained for a second day after breaking out of a days-long tight trading range.  US After Hours Quiet session heading into the holiday; KKR +0.9% edging higher on M&A reports

Nikkei +0.90% Hang Seng +0.04% CSI -0.08% Shanghai -0.47% Shenzen -0.99%

Eur$ 1.0785 CNH 7.3015 CNY 7.2716 JPY 161.46 GBP 1.2746 CHF 0.9003 RUB 88.5000 TRY 32.5458 WTI$ 83.30 -0.69% Gold 2,357 +0.05% BTC 58,840 -1.17% ETH 3,221 -1.05%

S&P +0.05% Nasdaq -0.03% EuroStoxx +0.14% FTSE +0.13% Dax +0.17% SMI -0.14%

Macro :
- Biden Struggling to Contain Pressure to Drop His Reelection Bid
- Starmer Vows ‘New Chapter’ as Britons Cast Votes on Election Day
- France’s Last Bond Sale Before Vote Set to Gauge Investor Angst
- Chinese EV Sales Hold Up in Europe as Trade Tensions Escalate
- Biden Interview on ABC to Air at Friday 8pm ET
- House Democrats Consider Demanding Biden Withdraw From Race
- Xi Defends Role on Ukraine, Vows to Deepen Russia Coordination
- French Bonds That Offer 5% to Lure Bargain-Hunters: Macro View

Keep an eye on :
- ADEN SW : Swiss Staffing Firm Adecco Said to Consider Sale of Akkodis Unit
- AKBM NO : Aker BioMarine to Sell Ownership Position in Feed Ingredients
- ARAMCO AB : Aramco, Adnoc Are Said to Consider Bids for Gas Producer Santos
- PRO IM : Banca Profilo Holder Confirms in Exclusive Talks for Stake Sale
- IAG LN : Airlines will have to raise prices to fund net zero goals, IAG boss says
- BO DC : B&O Sees 2025 Adjusted Ebit Margin -2% to 1%
- CAP FP : Capgemini Government Solutions Announces Management Change
- CON GY : Continental’s Struggling Auto Unit Banks on China Growth in 2H
- EDV LN : Endeavour Mining to Replace Smurfit Kappa in FTSE 100 Index
- ERICB SS : Ericsson Reports SEK11.4b Charge Relating to Vonage Impairment
- INST US : Francisco, KKR Are Said to Consider Takeover of Instructure
- KRN GY : Krones Targets Revenue Increase to €7B by 2028
- LAND SW : Landis+Gyr: Spectrum Entrepreneurial Bought 5% Stake From KIRKBI
- LDO IM : Leonardo, Rheinmetall Team Up for Italian Tanks Order
- M US : Macy’s Investor Group Raises Buyout Offer Again, WSJ Reports
- OP SS : Oscar Properties’ Restructuring Appeal Denied by Court
- PLUX FP : Pluxee Raises '24 Org. Rev. Target to ~18%, Saw +15% to +17%
- RDC GY : Redcare Pharmacy NV Prelim 2Q Revenue EU560M
- ROG SW : Roche Phase II/III Skyscraper-06 Study Missed Primary Endpoints
- 005930 KS : Samsung Likely to Post Fastest Sales Growth Since 2022: Preview
- SAN FP : Bain, Cinven Said to Weigh Joint Bid for $20 Billion Sanofi Unit
- SAN SM : Santander Is Said to Sell €270 Million in Mortgages to Hoist
- SKG LN : Endeavour Mining to Replace Smurfit Kappa in FTSE 100 Indexendeavour
- 9984 JP : SoftBank Has No Plans For Immediate Share Buyback: FT
- LOCAL FP : Solocal to Start ~€18M Rights Issue as Part of Restructuring
- SPWR US : SunPower Says SEC Issued Subpoena on Accounting Practices
- SWECB SS : Sweco to Partner Helen for Green Hydrogen Plant in Helsinki
- WG/ LN : Sidara’s Deal Deadline for Wood Group Extended to July 31

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 4th of July 2024

>>> Up
* Bunzl Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 3,460 pence
* Ferragamo Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT 9.10 euros
* H&M Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 200 kronor
* OCI Raised to Buy at Jefferies
* Sartorius Stedim Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 190 euros

>>> Down
* Alfen Cut to Hold at ING; PT 19 euros
* Galp Cut to Neutral at JB Capital Markets; PT 21.60 euros
* Merus Power Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 4.50 euros
* Pandora PT Cut to 920 kroner from 1,050 kroner at RBC
* Vestas Cut to Neutral at Grupo Santander; PT 190 kroner

>>> Initiation
* Card Factory Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 154 pence
* Forterra Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT 210 pence
* Ibstock Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT 200 pence
* Kalmar Rated New Buy at DNB Markets; PT 35 euros
* LSE Group Rated New Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 10,500 pence

>>> Call
* Forterra, Ibstock Outperform at RBC on UK Brick Demand Recovery
* LSE Group ‘Indispensable’ But Capex High; Oddo Initiates Neutral
* OCI Upgraded to Buy at Jefferies on Improved Risk Profile
* Pandora PT to New Street-Low at RBC on Inflated Commodity Costs
* Pluxee’s Organic Growth Offset by FX Headwinds, Citi Says

FT : Food from outside EU enters Britain unchecked, customs agents warn

Food from outside EU enters Britain unchecked, customs agents warn
Inland border facility beset by delays and communication issues as it struggles to implement post-Brexit regime

The UK’s main post-Brexit border control facility is allowing potentially risky animal and plant products to enter the UK without adequate checks, warn customs agents.

Sevington, the post set up by the government to check UK imports after Brexit, has been beset by communication issues and delays as it struggles to implement a controls regime which was delayed five times before finally taking effect in April, the people said.

Goods entering the UK from outside the EU, which previously underwent rigorous physical or documentary inspections, are now entering with weaker checks or none at all, three agents told the Financial Times.

One agent, speaking on condition of anonymity, said he heard that goods from Turkey were being cleared through Sevington. The agent said that when he asked for permission to bring a consignment of honey from Macedonia, the answer was: “Yes, no problem.”

Another official said that six consignments of frozen fish had been cleared through Sevington, a government-run facility, but that their Common Health Entry Documents (CHEDs) that confirm that checks have been carried out had still not been validated weeks later.

“I don’t think that [the inspection] system is turned on, otherwise the system would chuck it back,” he said, adding that he had cleared fish consignments transited through France from China, Korea and Japan through Sevington.

Earlier this year, the FT reported the government had quietly implemented a contingency clearance process designed to reduce lorry queues at British ports.

The measure, known as the timed-out decision contingency feature (Todcof), would allow goods to be automatically cleared after two hours, regardless of whether the checks had been carried out.

Documents showed that, before post-Brexit inspection rules coming into force in April, the rate of checks would be set to their lowest levels or turned off entirely to avoid delays.

In response to concerns that the border system was not fully ready, the government said it had always intended to “phase in” checks.

Before the UK left the EU in January 2020, the country relied on the bloc to carry out controls on goods coming into Europe. The UK carried out its own checks on those arriving from non-EU countries. 

Under the current system, goods entering the UK from both inside and outside Europe can be sent for checks at Sevington, which is 22 miles inland from the port of Dover.

The agent importing fish added that some clients, including hauliers, supermarkets and food producers, had requested their products be routed through a different border control post because they did not trust the capabilities at Sevington. 

Nigel Hughes, an agent at EuroLink customs clearance company said one client had been invoiced for checks at the facility without any proof that these had been carried out.

Another client, which imports plants and trees from the Netherlands, reported its lorry drivers had been forced to spend the night at Sevington because no one was available to carry out checks.

“The main problem that we have with Sevington is the lack of communication,” said Hughes. “We’ve got no-one to speak to. We have mobile phone numbers which don’t answer the phone. We have emails, which are answered very slowly.”

Customs and trade experts have called for a review of the border rules and associated charges, which they say are harming businesses in the UK and on the continent, and endangering biosecurity.

“We need the next UK government to fast-track a veterinary agreement with the EU to do away with unnecessary SPS [sanitary and phytosanitary controls] checks that cripple businesses, are difficult to enforce and apparently do very little to improve food, feed and plant safety and security,” said Arne Mielken, SPS controls expert and managing director of Customs Manager consultancy.

The government said that it could not comment on the matter because of the ongoing general election.

WSJ : Swimming vs. Running: Choosing the Better Exercise for Your Body

Swimming vs. Running: Choosing the Better Exercise for Your Body
Your go-to fitness choice depends on training, injury history and more

Do you take your fitness journey by land or by sea?

Anyone picking a new exercise routine won’t lack for opinions from among the tens of millions of runners and swimmers in the U.S. There are passionate communities on both sides that will tell you their sport is superior.

Better to ask someone who does both.

“I tolerate swimming to be able to do sports we like, to travel to cool places and race together,” says Jacob Gilden, a 36-year-old competitive triathlete and swimrunner. “But if I was less injury-prone, I would probably be doing a lot less swimming and a lot more running.”

His wife, Liz Gilden, a former professional triathlete herself, also loves running, but the 36-year-old says that age has changed the equation. Swimming isn’t as hard on the body, she says: “We can’t really run as much as we used to. So supplementing swimming really helps preserve that aerobic capacity.”

We all know the basics: Both running and swimming can boost your cardiovascular and mental health. Doing either is generally better than doing nothing.

How to decide which is better for you? We talked to experts to determine the factors—including your training, injury history and natural affinity—that play into the decision.

Born to run
Contrary to popular belief, running doesn’t have to destroy your knees and can actually benefit them. Some exercise scientists and researchers say that, with the proper routines, people can continue running into their 60s and 70s—or maybe even later.

Careful and informed training for a marathon can have a protective effect on knee joints of sedentary people without prior knee pain or issues, according to a pair of published studies from 2019 in the BMJ and 2020 in Skeletal Radiology.

Using magnetic resonance imaging, or MRI, researchers analyzed the knee joints of dozens of middle-aged, first-time marathoners. Many people assume that joints, bones and muscles wear down over time like car parts, says Alister Hart, a professor of orthopedics at University College London and the chief investigator of the studies.

But our body parts are biological, he says. “By doing exercise, they actually repair, renew and improve.”

Because running is a load-bearing exercise, research suggests it can build bone health. “We know that bones respond to force,” Hart says. “Running improves your knees by improving the quality of the bone on either side of the knee joint.”

But runners shouldn’t do anything too vigorous or bear too much weight until their bodies are able to manage. Instead, they should start out with easy runs and gradually increase the intensity and mileage.

“We don’t want someone who’s not conditioned to run to jump into running,” says Laura Richardson, a clinical associate professor of applied exercise science and movement science at the University of Michigan.

That includes people with arthritis and joint pain or those who are recovering from an injury or surgery. They may want to opt for swimming instead of running, researchers say.

“If you had a soccer injury at a young age, and you ruptured your cruciate ligament, and you never had it repaired, you’re going to be running on a joint that’s going to be not moving normally,” Hart says. “Your risk of developing joint damage is real.”

High-water marks
Proponents of swimming point to the fact that it activates muscles throughout your body, while running mainly works the lower body.

And because moving through water can be less harsh on the body than pounding pavement, swimming is often useful for rehabbing from injuries—including overtraining in running—and for those seeking joint-friendly exercise, says Scott Trappe, the director of the Human Performance Laboratory at Ball State University. Regular swimming has been found to reduce joint pain and stiffness associated with osteoarthritis.

Other health benefits have gotten less attention.

Researchers found that masters athletes, including swimmers, cyclists and triathletes—with the average age of 57—had more satisfying sex lives and better sexual function than the general population. The study’s subjects mostly consisted of swimmers but a small percentage of participants took part in other activities such as running and rowing.

“The take-home message is that swimming can enhance sexual function to an older age,” says Hirofumi Tanaka, the director of the Cardiovascular Aging Research Laboratory at the University of Texas at Austin and senior author of the 2023 study, which was published in the International Journal of Sexual Health.

One potential downside of swimming, exercise scientists say, is that it might require more training to get the benefits.

“You have to have a good skill to raise your heart rate up,” Tanaka says.

‘Intrinsic excitement’
Running and swimming can both be physically demanding and even risky, so experts recommend easing into both.

The trick is determining what intensity of an aerobic activity you can maintain in a continuing program, says the University of Michigan’s Richardson. “It’s a matter of finding that sweet spot.”

And when it comes to picking one or the other, the best choice is probably the one that you’ll stick with consistently. “If putting on your shoes and running outside seems like a challenge, then maybe you need to pack your bag and go to a local pool,” Richardson says. “So whatever feels like you have a little intrinsic excitement about doing, that’s the one you’ve got to do.”

FT : Saks owner nears $2.65bn deal for Neiman Marcus in luxury tie-up

Saks owner nears $2.65bn deal for Neiman Marcus in luxury tie-up
Amazon and Salesforce also expected to take stakes in newly formed company

Saks Fifth Avenue’s parent company is nearing a $2.65bn deal to buy its luxury department rival Neiman Marcus with the backing of tech giants Amazon and Salesforce, said two people with knowledge of the matter.

The deal, which follows months of complex negotiations, is set to combine two of the leading players in luxury retail under one roof and could buffer them from increased competition from other luxury behemoths such as LVMH, which owns brands including Dior and Louis Vuitton and increasingly sell directly to consumers.

Amazon and Salesforce would take minority stakes in the newly formed business, the two people said, an unusual foray by the tech giants into the luxury space. The leader of Saks’ ecommerce business, Marc Metrick, will join the newly formed company as chief executive.

The tie-up comes as luxury department stores, whose model relies on in-person sales at physical stores, grapple with shrinking market share. Shoppers now have options to buy directly through company websites, at brands’ own storefronts, or through e-retailers.

That pressure has sent several brands into financial distress: Neiman Marcus declared bankruptcy during the pandemic, along with Lord & Taylor. A tie-up between Saks’ parent company HBC, which also owns the Canadian department store Hudson’s Bay, has been speculated since Neiman Marcus emerged from bankruptcy later in 2020.

The newly formed business — to be called Saks Global — would be the biggest player in brick and mortar luxury storefronts, with about 75 main stores. Still, the new business will face fierce competition as customers flock directly to brands: LVMH has earned a market capitalisation of about $384bn.

HBC, which bought Saks more than 10 years ago, was financing the deal with a $2bn facility, one of the people said. Apollo Global Management was providing $1.15bn in debt.

The deal was first reported by The Wall Street Journal.

FT : SoftBank to prioritise AI deals over share buybacks despite pressure from E

SoftBank to prioritise AI deals over share buybacks despite pressure from Elliott
Japanese group’s top leaders seek ‘new investment activity’ after calls from hedge fund to return cash

SoftBank is determined to prioritise investments in artificial intelligence and has no plans for an immediate share buyback, despite pressure for a $15bn capital return programme from activist investor Elliott.

In an interview with the Financial Times, SoftBank’s chief financial officer Yoshimitsu Goto said that the best use of the company’s strengthened balance sheet was in the hunt for AI deals.

“We believe this is a time when new investment activity should be taking place that will be the basis for the future growth of SoftBank Group,” he said, while declining to comment on any specific exchanges the company had with Elliott. 

Elliott, which declined to comment, recently rebuilt a roughly $2bn stake and has been pushing SoftBank to announce a buyback as soon as its first-quarter results are released in August, according to people familiar with the matter. 

However, founder Masayoshi Son said at SoftBank’s annual general meeting last month that the group’s investments in the past — which included some disastrously large bets by its Vision Funds on start-ups such as WeWork — were just a “warm up” for its next stage in AI and described share buybacks as “small stuff”. 

Elliott has argued that buybacks would boost return on equity and narrow the substantial discount between the value of SoftBank’s asset portfolio and its market capitalisation, according to those familiar with its stance. Elliott also believes that the group has the balance sheet strength to return capital to investors and pursue AI deals at the same time.

SoftBank’s current loan-to-value ratio, which gives a sense of how much risk the group is carrying and is a key measure for Son, is at close to 8.5 per cent, a level Goto said was perhaps “too safe”. 

Goto did not rule out buybacks in the medium term — since shareholder returns remain an important part of his considerations and markets could change in the coming months — but said the short-term direction of SoftBank’s capital spending was set.

“We don’t need to be this safe and we need to take on more challenges,” said Goto. “This is why Masa is saying that now is the time to invest.” 

Elliott’s buyback push echoes its approach in early 2020 when it built up a stake of about $2.5bn in SoftBank.

SoftBank did eventually launch a buyback programme in the same year that it turned “defensive” and sold assets to reassure shareholders in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic. 

This time around, SoftBank is back on the offensive looking for AI deals that would support the company’s crown jewel, UK-based chip designer Arm — a plan that Goto said many investors he had spoken to accepted. 

The group’s share price is also up more than 75 per cent this year to record highs. 

However, support for both Son and Goto fell at the recent AGM.

Son, who owns 30 per cent of SoftBank shares, received 79 per cent of the vote, compared with 96 per cent the year before, after proxy adviser ISS recommended a vote against the billionaire because of “unfavourable return on equity performance”. Goto received 89 per cent, down from 98 per cent.

Son’s shareholding and its outsized reliance on large numbers of retail bond holders also afforded SoftBank protection from the demands of activists, said Goto.

“So while other companies may have a strong reaction to the word activist, we may not be the same as them.”

Goto separately underlined that SoftBank was ready to do “large-sized deals” and suggested power generation and data centres as two areas ripe for investment. However, the CFO repeated that he would protect his balance sheet by using project financing or non-recourse loans.

“Because Masa is thinking about such big pictures and the big solution, his movement may be slower than before,” cautioned Goto.

Deal making is starting to pick up. In May SoftBank led an investment of more than $1bn in UK self-driving car start-up Wayve, marking Europe’s largest AI deal to date. It is also in talks to buy UK chip designer Graphcore, according to people familiar with the matter.