FT : US LNG industry under pressure as challenges and uncertainty mount

US LNG industry under pressure as challenges and uncertainty mount
The drive to replace Russian gas has led to surging global demand but American export projects face growing hurdles

The US liquefied natural gas industry faces mounting challenges as legal clashes with activists and contractors combine with a federal permitting freeze to slow the expansion of the world’s biggest exporter.

Two multibillion-dollar terminals under construction on the Texas Gulf Coast backed by supermajors ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies suffered fresh setbacks this month, which are expected to lead to delays.

This has added to uncertainty over future supply growth created by the Joe Biden administration’s pause on new export permits and underlined the complexity of getting LNG megaprojects off the ground.

“LNG plants are energy infrastructure — and building energy infrastructure in America today is hard,” said Kevin Book, managing director of ClearView Energy Partners.

The US LNG industry has boomed in recent years amid surging demand from abroad, especially as Europe seeks to wean itself off reliance on Russian gas in the wake of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The US overtook Australia in 2023 to become the world’s biggest exporter, shipping 11.9bn cubic feet a day of LNG — enough to satisfy the combined gas needs of Germany and France — and industry has ambitious plans to double exports by the end of the decade.

But despite the thirst for US molecules, the challenges in bringing new terminals online costing tens of billions of dollars are increasing.

ExxonMobil and QatarEnergy this month pushed back the start of their $11bn Golden Pass project in Texas by six months to the end of next year after a clash with lead contractor Zachry Holdings over ballooning costs at the project. Zachry filed for bankruptcy protection in May.

A settlement reached with Zachry in recent weeks has allowed the owners to bring in a new lead contractor and push ahead with construction. Exxon finance chief Kathy Mikells welcomed the settlement, telling the Financial Times it would allow the company to “move forward to complete the project”.


NextDecade’s $18bn Rio Grande project was also dealt a blow this month after a court threw out a key regulatory approval following a legal challenge by environmental and community groups.

The company — which is 17 per cent owned by France’s TotalEnergies — vowed to take “all available legal and regulatory actions” to ensure the first phase of the project, due online in 2027, would be completed on time and that its latter stages would not be “unduly delayed”. NextDecade shares have slid about 40 per cent since the ruling.

“This decision has far-reaching implications beyond this project,” Matt Schatzman, NextDecade’s chief executive, said in a statement to the FT.

“If the ruling stands, the precedent that would be set by the court’s action has the potential to impact the viability of all federally permitted infrastructure projects because it will be difficult for these projects to attract capital investments until they receive final unappealable permits.”

When fully operational, the combined export capacity of the Golden Pass and Rio Grande facilities is set to reach as much as 5.9bn cubic feet per day, almost half of the volume shipped by the US last year.

Delays in bringing US projects online threaten to further squeeze an already tight market and push up prices. The Golden Pass delay will remove 2.3mn tonnes of supply from the market next year and 5.2mn in 2026, according to Wood Mackenzie.

The recent setbacks add to the travails of an industry whose rapid expansion since its establishment in 2016 hit a roadblock this year after the Biden administration in January halted new export permits for terminals as the Department of Energy carries out a review of the benefits.

There has been a marked slowdown in developments being greenlit since. Last year, three projects with a record combined capacity 37.5mn tonnes a year reached the crucial final investment decision stage, according to Wood Mackenzie. This year no projects have done so.

Though the Biden moratorium was blocked by a federal judge last month, no new permits have been issued since and industry players do not expect any change before the November presidential election.

“Developers and LNG buyers are waiting from clarification from courts and the US election to remove uncertainty,” said Mark Bononi, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie.

The energy department review is expected to be completed by March 2025. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has said he would begin issuing permits immediately if reelected. Analysts expect Democratic candidate Kamala Harris would also quickly end the freeze.

But Harris will face strong pushback from environmental groups and local activists over any move to speed up permitting for an industry they argue has destroyed coastal ecosystems and harmed local communities.

The Carrizo/Comecrudo tribe of Texas, which was among the plaintiffs in the case against NextDecade, said the project had ridden roughshod over sacred lands and vowed to continue to staunchly oppose it. “We will fight until our last penny,” Juan Mancias, tribal chair, told the FT.

The uncertainty in the US has caused some buyers to look abroad in a move industry players warn could derail some projects completely as anchor customers seek out contracts with clearer timeframes.

“It’s not good for these projects to be in limbo for a long time,” said Jason Bennett at law firm Baker Botts. “Buyers are always going to purchase LNG and are looking to buy in a particular time period.”

Le Monde : Les Dassault, la succession des mauvais sentiments

Les Dassault, la succession des mauvais sentiments

« Successions saison III » (1/6). C’est l’histoire d’une famille où les pères sont durs avec leurs fils, jusqu’au mépris, que ce soit dans la vie privée ou dans la gestion du groupe médiatico-militaro-industriel, créé par Marcel Dassault en 1929. Et d’une troisième génération dévorée par les dissensions.

Le vent souffle violemment depuis plusieurs jours, mais le ciel est clair sur Deauville (Calvados), ce 7 mars 2021. La veille, lorsque Olivier Dassault est arrivé vers 18 h 30, à bord de son hélicoptère personnel, un Airbus AS350-B qu’il apprend à piloter avec un vieux copain aguerri, le soleil se couchait tout juste. Des curieux ont regardé l’appareil se poser presque à la verticale, un peu trop près d’un bouquet d’arbres. Au moment de repartir, il est toujours stationné là, dans la propriété d’un ami, à Touques (Calvados), sur les hauteurs de la cité balnéaire. A moins d’un mètre d’un grand frêne.

L’aîné des héritiers Dassault adore se déplacer à bord de ses propres avions. A 69 ans, c’est sa façon à lui d’incarner sa prestigieuse ascendance, à défaut d’avoir pris les commandes du fleuron de l’industrie aéronautique française créé par son grand-père Marcel Dassault en 1929. Lorsqu’il arrive au Salon du Bourget, avec son blouson, ses lunettes fumées d’aviateur et ce nom, Dassault, qui charrie sa propre légende, il peut avoir l’illusion d’être un peu le patron. Et oublier ce que son père polytechnicien, Serge Dassault, lui a répété presque toute sa jeunesse : « Tu n’es pas un grand ingénieur puisque tu n’as pas fait l’X. »


Pour avoir le plaisir de prendre les commandes d’appareils produits par Dassault Aviation, Olivier Dassault a dû vaincre un tenace mal de l’air qui l’a longtemps saisi au premier trou d’air. A 24 ans, alors qu’il terminait sa formation d’ingénieur et d’officier pilote de l’Ecole de l’air, son instructeur, qui le voyait verdir dès le décollage, lui avait lancé en guise de consolation : « Eh bien… vous ferez un bon réserviste… » Dix fois, l’héritier a raconté comment il avait alors montré sa barrette, sur sa poitrine : « Vous n’avez pas vu le nom qui est inscrit là ? Je serai pilote ! »

Début 2021, il ne manque que quelques heures de conduite en double commande à ce dandy touche-à-tout pour ajouter la licence de pilote d’hélicoptère à celles qu’il possède déjà sur différents types d’appareils. Et enrichir de ce talent supplémentaire la longue liste qu’il a lui-même rédigée sur son blog : « Homme politique, entrepreneur, il est aussi un pilote chevronné, un photographe prisé et un compositeur reconnu »…

L’aîné des enfants Dassault n’a pas prévu de s’éterniser en Normandie ce 7 mars. Depuis que son père est mort, trois ans plus tôt, d’une crise cardiaque qui l’a terrassé à son bureau du Rond-Point des Champs-Elysées, à l’âge de 93 ans, il pourrait pourtant se sentir libre d’occuper son temps comme il le veut. A vrai dire, il a toujours mené la vie privilégiée des héritiers fortunés : bureaux somptueux, voitures de sport, chasse en Sologne, musique et photographie en guise de passe-temps. Mais du vivant de Serge Dassault, il se surprenait à mentir, comme ses deux frères, Laurent et Thierry, et leur sœur, Marie-Hélène, pour cacher un week-end au soleil, afin d’éviter d’entendre son père persifler : « Tu ne travailles donc pas ? »

En cette fin d’hiver 2021, l’atmosphère à Deauville est cependant un peu trop morne à son goût. L’épidémie de Covid-19 connaît une reprise, les restaurants n’ont pas rouvert et Olivier Dassault a décidé de repartir vingt-quatre heures après son arrivée, avant la tombée de la nuit. D’autres obligations l’attendent. Elu, depuis 1988, député dans la première circonscription de l’Oise – celle de son grand-père Marcel –, il a l’habitude de faire la tournée des associations et des marchés pour saluer ses électrices le 8 mars, Journée internationale des droits des femmes.

Chaque année, son épouse l’accompagne. Cela fait douze ans que ce séducteur invétéré s’est remarié avec Natacha Nikolajevic, une ancienne conseillère en communication et marketing, rencontrée en 2003 lors d’une vente aux enchères chez Artcurial, dont le groupe Dassault est l’un des principaux actionnaires. Il avait déjà deux enfants d’un premier mariage, Helena et Rémi. Ensemble, ils ont eu un garçon, Thomas, né en 2011. Chaleureuse et gaie, sa seconde épouse a rapidement compris les douleurs intimes de cette famille où personne ne manifeste jamais un quelconque geste de tendresse, offrant le spectacle de relations froides et pleines de non-dits. « Vous devriez lui dire que vous l’aimez », a-t-elle glissé un jour à son beau-père, en désignant son mari. L’intéressé a-t-il deviné qu’elle était à l’origine de ce mot gentil lâché enfin, quelque temps avant sa mort, par Serge à son fils Olivier ?

Les petits pieds de son mari
Ce samedi, donc, l’aîné des héritiers Dassault a déposé un plan de vol pour repartir le lendemain avec Natacha et le jeune Thomas dans l’Oise. Mais maintenant que l’heure du retour approche, il lâche à sa femme : « Exceptionnellement, je te dispense de l’Oise. » Et Thomas ? « Tu as dit qu’on ne montait jamais l’un sans l’autre dans l’hélico ! », chouine le gamin devant sa mère. C’est décidé, Natacha et leur fils rentreront à Paris en voiture pendant qu’Olivier rejoindra l’Oise. « Il est parti la fleur au fusil, avec son copain pilote… », se souvient-elle. La suite est figée dans sa mémoire, mais aussi dans le rapport minutieux du Bureau d’enquêtes et d’analyses pour la sécurité de l’aviation civile (BEA).

Olivier Dassault a quitté la maison de Deauville pour rejoindre Touques depuis à peine trente minutes quand le nom de son assistant s’affiche sur le téléphone de sa femme. « Olivier a été éjecté de l’hélico ! », annonce l’homme d’une voix blanche. L’épouse saute dans sa voiture et roule à fond de train jusqu’à la propriété où était stationné l’hélicoptère. Les gendarmes sont déjà là. Se fiant au plan de vol déposé la veille, ils cherchent une femme et un enfant dans les débris fumants et les taillis environnants. Impossible d’approcher : « Il y a du kérosène partout, cela pourrait s’enflammer. » De loin, Natacha Dassault reconnaît les petits pieds de son mari – il chausse du 39 – et comprend l’inéluctable. Le pire, confie-t-elle aujourd’hui, c’est le sentiment terrible qui la déchire alors, « entre la douleur infinie qu’il soit mort et le soulagement immense que Thomas ne soit pas monté avec lui… ».

Que s’est-il passé ? A 17 h 43, décrit l’enquête du BEA, « lors du décollage vertical de l’appareil, à une hauteur d’environ 19 mètres, le rotor de l’hélicoptère a heurté les branches du grand frêne de 23 mètres de hauteur près duquel il s’était posé la veille ». L’appareil s’est littéralement délité, la queue s’est détachée, les glissières et le plancher de la cabine ont été arrachés et cette dernière est tombée jusqu’au sol en tournant sur elle-même. Les enquêteurs ne peuvent certifier qui pilotait alors, mais les résultats de l’autopsie montrent que « les lésions internes subies par des deux personnes à bord ne laissaient aucune possibilité de survie ».

Les obsèques d’Olivier Dassault sont célébrées le 12 mars, au sein de la cathédrale Saint-Pierre de Beauvais, chef-lieu de la circonscription de l’élu. De nombreux politiques de droite comme de gauche sont présents, par exemple Jean-Luc Mélenchon, qui prend la veuve dans ses bras et lui glisse : « C’est le seul mec de droite que j’aimais. » A l’issue de la cérémonie, deux avions de chasse de l’armée de l’air survolent le parvis de l’église en hommage autant à la famille Dassault qu’au pilote Olivier.

Poison de la division
Le monde des affaires ne tarde pas à se demander comment la famille va gérer la disparition de l’aîné. Car Dassault est l’un des groupes les plus puissants et les plus stratégiques pour la France. Présent dans la conception et la fabrication d’avions militaires et civils ainsi que de systèmes spatiaux (Dassault Aviation, 12 400 collaborateurs et 7,2 milliards de chiffre d’affaires), dans la conception de logiciels de haut niveau (Dassault Systèmes, 20 496 collaborateurs, 4,86 milliards de chiffre d’affaires), il l’est aussi dans les médias, avec son fleuron Le Figaro, l’immobilier, l’art, avec Artcurial, et le vin. Savoir par qui le conglomérat sera dirigé est crucial.


Si Olivier a toujours été le plus connu des héritiers de Serge Dassault, il y a derrière lui deux frères, Laurent et Thierry, ainsi qu’une sœur, Marie-Hélène. Il y a aussi treize petits-enfants, à qui leur grand-père a transmis dès la fin des années 1990 la quasi-totalité du capital du groupe médiatico-militaro-industriel. A eux tous, ils détiennent la sixième fortune française, selon le classement du magazine Challenges de 2024, avec un patrimoine évalué à 26,16 milliards d’euros. La direction opérationnelle du groupe est, elle, entre de solides mains que le patriarche avait pris soin de choisir hors de la famille : celles de Charles Edelstenne, longtemps considéré comme le « double » de Serge Dassault.

Le fils aîné avait néanmoins une place à part au sein de la fratrie. Il ne s’installait pas seulement dans le fauteuil de son défunt père lors des déjeuners de famille. Il était aussi le véritable président au conseil de surveillance de la holding familiale, même lorsque la troisième génération Dassault avait organisé en son sein une présidence tournante. Lui seul pouvait ramener un peu de concorde entre Laurent, Thierry, Marie-Hélène et le conjoint de cette dernière, Benoît Habert. Car il n’est un secret pour personne que le poison de la division s’est installé au sein de la famille actionnaire depuis des décennies…

« Les Dassault, c’est la succession des mauvais sentiments », résume un connaisseur de la dynastie. Pour comprendre ce qu’il veut dire, il faut remonter au père fondateur, Marcel Dassault, que tous vénèrent. Ce formidable concepteur d’avions incarne une histoire à la fois héroïque et tragique. Né en 1892 à Neuilly-sur-Seine (Hauts-de-Seine) au sein d’une famille juive, Marcel Bloch est le dernier de quatre enfants. C’est un élève brillant, entré à l’Ecole supérieure d’aéronautique et de construction mécanique (Supaéro) dont il sort diplômé un an avant la première guerre mondiale. Pendant la Grande Guerre, il se lance, avec son camarade Henry Potez, dans la conception d’une hélice puis d’un avion complet destiné à l’armée française. Onze ans après la fin de la guerre, il monte sa propre entreprise, la Société des avions Marcel-Bloch, qui a produit plusieurs bombardiers bimoteurs pour l’Etat et que la course à l’armement des années 1930 va rendre très rentable.


Dans cette époque où le fascisme et le nazisme prospèrent, ce chef d’entreprise juif est sans cesse pris pour cible par les journaux d’extrême droite. Dès 1940, son frère Darius Paul Bloch rejoint Charles de Gaulle à Londres après son appel du 18 juin. Marcel, lui, rallie la villa qu’il possède à Cannes, en zone libre, avec femme et enfants, mais il est arrêté dès octobre. Après de multiples épisodes, il sera déporté au camp de concentration de Buchenwald. A la Libération, âgé de 53 ans, il fait figure de véritable miraculé.

Conversion au catholicisme
La guerre lui a fait prendre des résolutions importantes pour sa famille. Sur les quatre fils Bloch, Darius Paul est devenu général après sa résistance courageuse, mais René, qui était chirurgien des hôpitaux de Paris, est mort à Auschwitz. Lui-même sait bien à quoi il a réchappé. Il décide donc de renoncer à la fois à son patronyme et au judaïsme. Dans la Résistance, le nom de code utilisé par son frère Darius Paul était « Chardasso » (tiré de « char d’assaut »). En 1946, Marcel fait changer son patronyme en Bloch-Dassault, puis en Dassault tout court, dès 1949. L’année suivante, il se convertit au catholicisme.

En 1951, il propose à son fils Serge d’entrer dans la société d’aéronautique qu’il a créée et dirige toujours d’une main de fer. Cela devrait être une chance pour le père et le fils, autant que pour l’entreprise : Serge Dassault, après être sorti bien classé de l’Ecole polytechnique, a choisi Supaéro. Il a le goût de la technique, des capacités de haut niveau en mathématiques et en physique et ce souci de l’esthétique en matière d’aérodynamisme que chérit tant son père, qui professe que « chaque fois qu’un avion est beau, il vole bien ».

Cependant, il n’échappe à personne que Marcel Dassault tient son fils à distance. C’est qu’un drame personnel pèse sur la famille. L’aîné, Claude, né en 1920, est atteint d’autisme sévère. Est-ce la douleur constante de voir les insuffisances de Claude qui le fait mépriser ce cadet dont la naissance, cinq ans plus tard, n’a rien guéri ? L’industriel n’est pas du genre à partager son autorité. Ni à établir la moindre complicité avec son fils. Lorsqu’il lui écrit, il commence ses lettres par « Monsieur », comme s’il s’adressait à un étranger. Serge Dassault est pourtant une bonne recrue. Au début des années 1960, il a largement contribué à la création du Mystère 20, qui ouvrira la voie à l’aviation d’affaires et arrondira largement la fortune de l’entreprise. Mais il n’a pas voix au chapitre. Pis, son père ne perd jamais une occasion de le traîner plus bas que terre en public. « Il ne m’a jamais dit qu’il était fier de moi, n’a jamais été prolixe en compliments », confiera Serge Dassault à Mireille Dumas dans une interview télévisée, en 2011, sur France 3.

Avec les années, les relations entre Marcel et Serge Dassault ne se sont pas arrangées et elles ont pris une tournure plus cruelle encore lorsque Serge a lui-même eu des enfants. « Coco » – c’est ainsi que ses petits-enfants appellent Marcel – adore Olivier plus qu’il n’a jamais aimé son propre fils. Il répète sans cesse qu’il laissera à l’aîné de ses petits-fils la présidence de son groupe, alors qu’il n’a jamais rien dit de semblable au sujet de son propre fils. Il s’applique même à saboter son rôle de père et à prendre sa place auprès d’Olivier. Quand ce dernier a voulu monter une petite société de publicité, il a laissé une ardoise conséquente que son grand-père s’est empressé d’éponger, alors que son père voulait le laisser se débrouiller par lui-même. C’est aussi Marcel qui offre à son petit-fils adoré les voitures de sport que Serge lui refuse. En somme, personne n’est vraiment à sa place dans cette lignée d’hommes.

« Serge est véritablement né à 60 ans, quand son père a disparu », résument parfois les héritiers Dassault. Rien n’est plus vrai. La mort de Marcel Dassault, le 17 avril 1986, donne lieu à un hommage exceptionnel aux Invalides de la part du premier ministre d’alors, Jacques Chirac. Marcel Dassault n’a pourtant rien prévu pour sa succession. C’est au conseil d’administration de décider. Serge Dassault est finalement élu à une voix près PDG du groupe, à un âge où les ouvriers de ses usines sont déjà à la retraite…

Il est difficile pour un homme qui n’a pas été aimé de témoigner de l’amour à ses propres enfants. Dans un infernal processus de répétition, Serge Dassault se comporte à son tour en autocrate avec sa descendance, méprisant ouvertement ses enfants comme son père le faisait autrefois. Tous ceux qui fréquentent alors la famille se souviennent, mal à l’aise, des humiliations infligées à ses enfants. « Un jour, alors que je venais voir Serge dans son bureau, je me retrouve avec son cadet Laurent qui attendait sagement son tour, raconte un proche de la famille. Je lui ai dit : “Votre fils d’abord !” Il m’a répondu aussitôt : “Il peut bien attendre encore !” » Olivier n’a pas droit à plus d’égards. Au printemps 2004, alors qu’il est censé être chargé du pôle presse du groupe (qui gère notamment Valeurs actuelles et Spectacles du monde), il est convoqué par son père pour une annonce surprise : « Nous avons racheté Le Figaro ! » Il n’avait pas pris la peine de lui en parler avant.

Jalousie paternelle
Comment expliquer, sinon par la jalousie, la façon dont le patriarche observe la carrière politique de son fils Olivier ? Pendant des années, Serge Dassault a essayé de s’installer durablement comme élu dans l’Oise. Battu plusieurs fois, souvent en ballottage, il a parfois « assuré » son élection en distribuant des enveloppes de billets pour mieux s’attacher les électeurs, ce qui lui vaudra en 2009 l’annulation de son élection par le conseil d’Etat et une inéligibilité d’un an.

D’emblée, il voit d’un mauvais œil qu’Olivier envisage à son tour de se présenter, lors des législatives de 1988. Serge, espérant trouver des obstacles, consulte Jacques Chirac, qui préside alors le RPR et veille sur ces Dassault qui ont toujours été les compagnons de route de la droite. Pour le tranquilliser, Chirac lui dit : « Laisse-le faire, il va être battu, ce sera une bonne leçon et il reviendra dans la boîte. » Seulement, Olivier est élu. Dès le lendemain, il trouve sur son bureau ses affaires dans un carton.

« Tu as choisi, maintenant tu t’en vas, lui lance son père.

– Mais tu m’avais dit oui !

– Je t’ai dit oui, mais je pensais non ! »

Olivier Dassault racontait une autre histoire, plus terrible encore, survenue vingt ans plus tard, après l’élection de Nicolas Sarkozy à la présidence de la République. L’aîné des Dassault espère alors devenir ministre du commerce extérieur. Mais son père assure au chef de l’Etat que l’affaire est impossible, puisqu’il s’apprête à le nommer président du groupe. Le gouvernement est donc annoncé sans lui. Evidemment, jamais Olivier Dassault n’est devenu le patron de l’entreprise…


Serge Dassault n’a jamais eu confiance dans les capacités de ses enfants. « Il avait l’idée qu’il fallait ériger une muraille de Chine entre la famille et l’entreprise et que, pour attirer des types brillants, il ne fallait pas mettre la famille au milieu », l’excuse aujourd’hui un haut cadre du groupe. Ni Thierry – qui s’est un temps spécialisé dans les activités multimédias du groupe – ni Marie-Hélène – qui semblait plus tentée par le mécénat – n’ont jamais revendiqué le pouvoir. Pendant longtemps, il n’est donc resté que les deux aînés pour tenter d’exister l’un contre l’autre, affichant une rivalité que leur père prenait un malin plaisir à exacerber.

Si encore Nicole Dassault avait compensé la dureté de son mari… Mais elle ne s’est pas montrée plus douce avec ses quatre enfants. A Laurent, le cadet de la fratrie, elle est capable de dire devant témoins : « D’un mot, Olivier peut embellir les choses, mais toi, d’un regard tu les salis… » Pour les 50 ans de Laurent, la famille au grand complet se retrouve dans la brasserie Chez Miocque, une institution deauvillaise. Alors que le père de famille se lance dans un discours dans lequel il rabaisse férocement son fils, un invité se penche vers Nicole : « Il y va fort quand même ! » Réponse de la mère : « Il est en dessous de la vérité… »

Lorsqu’il lui revient aux oreilles que ses fils se plaignent, le patriarche s’agace : « Oh, ça va, hein, ils ont tout ! » Et c’est vrai qu’ils vivent dans l’opulence, de restaurants étoilés en palaces, entretenant une écurie pour le polo et collectionnant des œuvres d’art. Le père, lui, vit comme un bon bourgeois de province. Chez les Dassault, boulevard Suchet, dans le 16e arrondissement de Paris, aucun signe extérieur de richesse. Mme Dassault utilise bien une voiture avec chauffeur, mais elle peut également aller acheter elle-même un paquet de lessive au supermarché du coin.

Le 21 novembre 2011, Serge Dassault se laisse filmer par les caméras de Mireille Dumas, la grande spécialiste des confessions intimes, devant des millions de téléspectateurs. Le soir de la diffusion du documentaire sur France 3, les quatre enfants sont devant leur téléviseur comme s’ils attendaient un oracle. Justement, voilà que le patriarche les compare : « Il faut d’abord quelqu’un de compétent. Olivier a fait l’Ecole de l’air, les autres n’ont rien fait d’intéressant, cingle-t-il. Ou du moins pas d’études techniques. » Enfin, il paraît rendre son verdict en faveur de l’aîné : « Sa façon de bien parler, sa connaissance des avions font qu’il est plus apte que les autres… » L’aîné jubile. Le lendemain, alors qu’il retrouve son père lors d’un déjeuner avec des journalistes, il glisse tout haut : « Acceptes-tu que le dauphin s’asseye à tes côtés ? » Son triomphe, cependant, est de courte durée. Dans les quarante-huit heures, son père publie un communiqué affirmant que la succession n’est pas ouverte… « C’est une famille où les pères ont tué les fils », résume un ancien ministre de l’économie.

Comité des sages
De son vivant, Serge Dassault avait mis en place un comité des sages. A sa mort, ce comité a décidé que Charles Edelstenne, l’homme-clé de l’entreprise, continuerait à diriger le groupe et que la holding familiale serait présidée tour à tour par chacun des enfants, qui continuent de se détester. Ainsi, lorsque Martine, l’épouse de Laurent, est décédée, Thierry ne s’est pas rendu à ses obsèques. Alors que son frère lui reprochait vivement son absence, il lui a rétorqué : « Je ne viendrai pas non plus à ton enterrement ! » Ambiance.

Il y a quelques mois, ce comité des sages, présidé cette fois par Henri Proglio, a convaincu les enfants de désigner Eric Trappier, actuel PDG de Dassault Aviation, pour succéder à Charles Edelstenne, le jour des 87 ans de ce dernier, le 9 janvier 2025.

Au sein de la holding familiale, c’est sa fille aînée, Helena, diplômée de l’Institut supérieur de gestion, qui a pris la place d’Olivier Dassault, plutôt que sa veuve. Charles Edelstenne s’est chargé de l’initier. Les héritiers se sont partagé les conseils d’administration du groupe. Laurent Dassault se présente parfois à l’étranger comme s’il était le patron de l’entreprise familiale et en France comme s’il était celui du Figaro, alors qu’il ne siège même pas au conseil d’administration du groupe de presse, où la famille est représentée par Thierry Dassault et Benoît Habert.

Thierry et Marie-Hélène s’arrangent entre eux pour tenir leur frère à l’écart, craignant ses déclarations intempestives et le scandale des compagnes d’un soir affriolantes avec lesquelles il s’affiche sans prudence ni pudeurs. Mis sur la touche, Laurent se contente de financer de temps à autre un film dans lequel il réclame un petit rôle de figuration, quand il ne joue pas au polo.

Parmi les treize petits-enfants, plusieurs ont fait des « stages découverte » au sein du groupe, cornaqués par Charles Edelstenne. Il n’y a cependant aucun ingénieur spécialiste d’aéronautique, comme l’étaient Marcel et Serge, dans cette quatrième génération. Certains ont opté pour la finance, d’autres investissent dans des start-up. Personne ne semble intéressé par les avions, les vignobles, ni même la presse. S’accorderont-ils pour vendre Le Figaro ? A Vincent Bolloré ? En 2021, la rumeur était si forte que Charles Edelstenne a dû la démentir dans une lettre adressée à tous les collaborateurs du journal. Les connaisseurs des entreprises militaro-industrielles n’y croient d’ailleurs pas. « Un groupe comme Dassault qui vend des avions militaires, notamment grâce à la commande publique, a besoin d’avoir un petit pistolet pointé sur l’Etat », glisse l’un d’eux.

« Les Dassault, c’est une histoire qui commence par une famille et qui finit avec des administrateurs », souffle le ministre de l’économie démissionnaire Bruno Le Maire. Au Rond-Point des Champs-Elysées, dans ce splendide hôtel de cocotte un peu vieillot décoré de toiles de maître qui abrite la direction du groupe, se trouve toujours le bureau qu’occupait autrefois Serge Dassault. Il n’a jamais été vidé, mais aucun de ses enfants ne s’y sera installé.

>>> Varta : Announces commercial agreement on restructuring concept

Varta - Announces commercial agreement on restructuring concept

Announces that it has today reached a commercial agreement on a restructuring concept with almost all syndicate loan lenders and certain lenders of promissory notes. The restructuring concept will significantly reduce the Company’s debt and provide it with fresh liquidity and provides for the entry of a company controlled by the Company’s current indirect majority shareholder, DDr. Michael Tojner (“MT InvestCo”), and an investment company of Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG (“Porsche”) as the new shareholders. The implementation of the restructuring concept will secure the financing of VARTA AG on the basis of the current business plan until the end of 2027 and shall be carried out in the course of the notified restructuring plan under the application of the German Company Stabilization and Restructuring Act (Unternehmensstabilisierungs- und -restrukturierungsgesetzes, StaRUG).

The restructuring concept foresees a significant reduction of the existing debt of € 485 million by a total of approximately € 285 million to approximately € 200 million through a haircut and an extension of the remaining loan obligations until December 31, 2027. In addition, to cover the liquidity requirements, a new senior loan (super senior) in the amount of € 60 million with a term until December 31, 2027 (“New Funds”) is planned, which can be provided in accordance with the commercial agreement by those of the existing lenders (syndicated loan lenders and lenders of promissory notes), who agree to the restructuring plan, pro rata to their existing loan commitments. The provision of the New Funds is fully guaranteed by certain existing lenders by way of a so-called backstop. In this context, an exception from the debt cut (so-called “elevation”) for existing loans and promissory notes in the amount of the provision of New Funds shall be made for those lenders who participate in such provision of New Funds. In addition, it is planned that all lenders participating in the provision of New Funds (“Super Senior Lenders”) will be granted a virtual participation in VARTA AG in the form of a value recovery instrument, which represents a significant participation in the Company’s economic equity. All other lenders shall be granted a debtor warrant (Besserungsschein), which will allow them to participate in the Company’s positive development if certain EBITDA figures are exceeded.

The restructuring concept also includes a simplified reduction of the share capital of VARTA AG to € 0, which will lead to the compensation-free exit of the current shareholders of VARTA and the delisting of VARTA shares.

Immediately following the capital reduction, MT InvestCo and a Porsche investment vehicle shall contribute a total of € 60 million in cash with a share premium in kind (in the form of operating real property currently leased by VARTA) for the purpose of stabilizing VARTA by way of a capital increase excluding subscription rights in exchange for the issuance of new shares in VARTA AG. After the capital measures have been completed, the Super Senior Lenders would economically hold 36% of the equity of VARTA AG, while MT InvestCo and Porsche would hold 32% each. Legally, the shares in VARTA AG would initially be held by MT InvestCo and Porsche, each with a 50% share, with neither MT InvestCo nor Porsche having control. The commercial agreement also provides for the opportunity for a further investor to invest into the Company within one year of completion of the StaRUG proceedings by way of a cash capital increase of up to a further € 30 million, which would dilute the shares held by the Super Senior Lenders, MT InvestCo and Porsche. In the course of the restructuring proceedings, VARTA AG may also be converted into a limited liability company (Gesellschaft mit beschränkter Haftung, GmbH).

VARTA will prepare the further documentation on this basis together with its advisors in the short term. However, the signing of the agreements to be prepared on the basis of the commercial agreement is still subject to, among other things, the approval of the committees of the parties involved and the approval of the merger control authorities.It is currently assumed that VARTA will submit a corresponding restructuring plan to the competent district court in Stuttgart – Restructuring Court – and request a hearing and voting date following the signing of these agreements.

FT : Traders wary of renewed Wall Street volatility

Traders wary of renewed Wall Street volatility
Benchmark tracking investors’ fear of fear trades above long-term averages

US stock markets have rebounded quickly after a dramatic start to August but trading in derivatives markets suggests many investors are not convinced the calm will last.

By Thursday the S&P 500 had erased the last of its month-to-date losses and the Vix index — Wall Street’s main gauge of expected market volatility — had fallen well below its long-term average of 20.

That is a marked improvement from the start of the month, when a series of disappointing economic data helped spark a global market sell-off. The S&P fell 6 per cent in the first three trading days of August and the Vix peaked above 65 — a level only reached a handful of times this century.

However, moves beneath the surface of the headline indices point to continued caution.

“Investors and markets are very sensitive right now,” said Mandy Xu, head of derivatives market intelligence at Cboe Global Markets, which operates the Vix. “If next week we got more data that showed the economy slowing more than expected . . . that could shift the whole narrative, in which case volatility levels would be quite different.”

One sign of anxiety that is being closely watched by traders is the “Vvix” — the expected volatility of expected volatility.

The more well-known Vix index is known as Wall Street’s “fear gauge” because it uses options tied to the S&P 500 to quantify how much investors expect the stock index to swing over the next 30 days.

The Vvix uses a similar calculation on derivatives tied to the Vix itself, showing how much investors expect fear to rise and fall over the same period.


The Vvix closed on Friday at 103.4, compared with a long-term average of about 90, and an average of 83 for the first seven months of this year. 

“There’s been a risk-on attitude . . . [but] the Vvix is saying we’re not fully back to where we started — there’s a little bit of anxiety sitting in pockets of the market,” said Garrett DeSimone, head of quantitative research at OptionMetrics.

DeSimone also pointed to the put-call skew — a way of measuring the relative cost of insuring against a decline in the S&P 500 over the next month — which has remained higher than its recent averages. A higher skew points to increased demand for protection against a market pullback, compared with bullish bets.

Although the S&P 500 is now in positive territory for the month, the gains have not been evenly distributed. Maxwell Grinacoff, US equity derivatives strategist at UBS, said “there has been rotation into defensive sectors amid recession fears”.

The best performing subsectors in the S&P 500 so far in August were consumer staples and healthcare, classic “defensive” areas. In contrast, the worst-performing were cyclical areas such as consumer discretionary, energy and materials.


Most observers agree that the Vix’s recent peak was encouraged by technical factors and overstated the true amount of risk in the market. A lack of liquidity during early-morning trading in some of the options that influence the Vix calculation caused it to overstate the true amount of risk in the market.

Grinacoff said similar technical issues had encouraged an overreaction in the opposite direction, as traders rushed to monetise short-term hedges they had taken out during the initial volatility. 

“We do think that volatility should normalise, it is mean reverting. But the speed at which it came down was a bit too far too fast,” he said. “We’re still not out of the woods yet.”

WSJ : How Israel Killed a Ghost

How Israel Killed a Ghost
Hezbollah’s commander Fuad Shukr lived a life so secret few knew his name or face before an airstrike killed him and helped put the Middle East on the brink of war

BEIRUT—Fuad Shukr had eluded the U.S. for four decades, ever since a bombing killed 241 American servicemen in a Marine barracks in the Lebanese capital, which it says he helped plan. At the end of July, an Israeli airstrike found him on the seventh floor of a residential building not far away.

The militant was one of the U.S.-designated terrorist group Hezbollah’s founders and most senior operatives, a longtime trusted friend of the leader Hassan Nasrallah who played a key role in developing the missile arsenal that has made Hezbollah the world’s best-armed nonstate militia. For the past 10 months, he had commanded the group’s increasingly intense cross-border skirmishing with Israel.

Yet despite being one of the most important figures in Hezbollah’s history, he lived an almost invisible life, appearing only in small gatherings of the group’s trusted veterans. He emerged in public early this year to attend the funeral of a nephew killed fighting Israel—but only for a couple of minutes, an acquaintance said. Shukr was so secretive that Lebanese media outlets reporting on his death published photos of the wrong man.

The commander few people knew spent his last day, July 30, in his office on the second floor of a residential building in the southern Beirut neighborhood of Dahiyeh, a Hezbollah official said. He lived on the seventh floor of the same building, likely to limit the need to move around in the open. Nasrallah said during his eulogy for Shukr that he had been in touch with him until just hours before his death.

That evening, according to the Hezbollah official, Shukr received a call from someone telling him to go to his apartment five floors up. Around 7 p.m., Israeli munitions slammed into the apartment and the three floors underneath, killing Shukr, his wife, two other women and two children. More than 70 people were injured, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry.

The call to draw Shukr to the seventh floor, where he would be easier to target amid the surrounding buildings, likely came from someone who had breached Hezbollah’s internal communications network, the official said. Hezbollah and Iran continue to investigate the intelligence failure but believe that Israel beat the group’s countersurveillance with better technology and hacking, the official said.

The killing was a major blow to Hezbollah, taking out one of the group’s best strategists and exposing the degree to which its operations have been penetrated. Paired with the death hours later of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in a suspected Israeli attack in Tehran, it also pushed the Middle East to the brink of a regional war that the U.S. is scrambling to head off.

“These targeted killings have a cumulative effect on the operational capability of the organization,” said Carmit Valensi, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv and expert on Hezbollah, referring to the Lebanese group.

“He was a source of knowledge,” she said of Shukr. “He knew how to work and communicate with Nasrallah. They spoke the same language.”

Shukr lived nearly his entire adult life at the heart of Hezbollah’s operations and decision-making and was a key link between the group and its main benefactor, Iran. In 1982, still in his early 20s, he helped organize Shiite guerrilla fighters in Beirut to oppose Israel’s invasion of Lebanon during its civil war.

After Israel laid siege to Beirut that year, the resistance retreated to the Bekaa Valley in eastern Lebanon, where it made contact with about 1,500 members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who had arrived through Syria. Shukr at the time worked for the General Directorate of General Security, Lebanon’s government intelligence agency.

He was asked to escort a group of Iranian diplomats from the Syrian border to the embassy in Beirut, according to Qassem Kassir, a political analyst familiar with Hezbollah who had known Shukr since the early 1980s. The diplomats were abducted along the way—allegedly by the Lebanese Forces, an armed Christian faction—and never seen again. Shukr, as a state security employee, was let go.

Known by his nom de guerre, Hajj Mohsin, Shukr became the point man between the Iranians and the camp they established in the Bekaa to train Hezbollah militants, said Kassir, who worked at the Iranian Embassy in Beirut at the time. Shukr later traveled to Iran to oversee the training of elite Hezbollah forces.

Early in the morning of Oct. 23, 1983, a truck bomb containing an estimated 12,000 pounds of TNT exploded outside a U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut. Hezbollah had yet to officially declare its existence, and a group called Islamic Jihad took responsibility. The U.S. later said Shukr played a key role in planning and executing the attack.

Hezbollah formally announced its formation in 1985, and Shukr became its first military commander. He continued to wage a guerrilla campaign in the south until Israeli forces fully withdrew from the country in 2000 and earned a reputation as a strategic thinker with knowledge of the entire region.

“We used to joke with him in our sessions and in our meetings, and say that the engine of his brain was working with terrible force,” Nasrallah said in his speech. “He had a wealth of ideas and suggestions, and we would say to him: ‘Sir, you have to be patient with us.’ ”

On June 14, 1985, a group of hijackers seized TWA Flight 847 after takeoff from Athens, and flew the plane back and forth between Beirut and Algiers for three days demanding the release of 700 prisoners held by Israel. Shukr helped plan the operation, according to Kassir, and shortly thereafter went underground as his notoriety spread throughout Beirut.

“He became invisible,” Shukr’s acquaintance said.

Shukr commanded the respect of Hezbollah’s rank and file and occasionally appeared from hiding. During protests in Beirut in 1993 against the Oslo peace accord between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization, he personally intervened to convince a group of Hezbollah members to pull back from a clash with security forces and prevent bloodshed, this acquaintance said.

Some outings were more brazen. In 1996, after Israeli forces firing artillery shells killed more than 100 civilians sheltering in a United Nations compound in southern Lebanon, Shukr went on a pilgrimage to Mecca. Walking around the Kaaba, he led a large group of pilgrims in chants of “Death to America” and “Death to Israel,” said the acquaintance who accompanied him on the trip.

The secretive life took its toll on Shukr, who compensated for the time he lost seeing friends and associates by treating those around him, when he saw them, with extra attention and care, Kassir said. He was fiercely loyal to a close circle of friends, many of whom had come of age with him, including Nasrallah, who became Hezbollah chief in 1992 after Israel assassinated his predecessor.

“These high-rank military guys,” said Hanin Ghaddar, senior fellow and Hezbollah expert with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, “are expected to have a very secretive life and mission—no public appearances, no photos to the public, and definitely no interactions with others in the Shia community.”

When the next devastating war hit Lebanon, in 2006, Shukr again was instrumental. He helped command the fighters who infiltrated northern Israel, killing eight soldiers and abducting two others, triggering a monthlong invasion that devastated parts of Lebanon.

After the war, Shukr oversaw a military buildup that expanded Hezbollah’s arsenal from some 15,000 rockets and missiles to about 150,000, including antiship and cruise missiles, drones, and rockets. He became the point man for Iran’s deliveries, through Syria, of components that turned unguided rockets into precision-guided ones, according to the Israeli military.

In 2008, Shukr’s friend and Hezbollah commander in chief Imad Mughniyeh was killed by a car bomb in a joint CIA-Mossad operation in Damascus, Syria. Mughniyeh was leaving a reception marking the anniversary of the Islamic Republic in Iran when he got into his car alone and a bomb hidden in a spare tire exploded.

In 2016, another Hezbollah friend Mustafa Badreddine was killed by an explosion, also in the Syrian capital. Hezbollah blamed Sunni militants for the killing, while Israel said he had been killed by his own men due to internal rivalries on Nasrallah’s orders.

Yet, in recent years Shukr appeared to grow more relaxed, Kassir said. His friends had been killed in Damascus, not Beirut, where a targeted assassination seemed unlikely.

“The rules of engagement with Israel were established,” Kassir said. “There were red lines.”

The rules held even after Oct. 7, when Hamas—a Hezbollah ally—attacked Israel and killed 1,200 people, most of them civilians, according to Israeli authorities. Hezbollah began firing at Israel the following day, setting off a back and forth in which Israel targeted and killed around 400 of the group’s operatives, including key commanders, but not in Beirut.

Nasrallah, concerned about the intelligence breakdowns that enabled the killings of his operatives, in February ordered his fighters and their families not to use smartphones: “Abandon your phone, disable it, bury it, lock it in a metal box,” he said. To prevent Israeli eavesdropping, Hezbollah resorted to using coded language not only on open channels but on their internal communications network as well, the Hezbollah official said.

Shukr came into Israel’s crosshairs after a rocket landed in a soccer field in Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights in late July, killing a dozen young people. Hezbollah denied involvement, but Israel blamed the group, saying the rocket was one of Hezbollah’s and came from Lebanon.

Early on the day Shukr was targeted, Hezbollah sent out orders for high-ranking commanders to disperse amid concerns they were at risk, the Hezbollah official said. After the strike, it wasn’t immediately clear whether he had been killed. Some in Hezbollah thought he might have heeded the evacuation orders and fled, the official said. It took a while to find his body. It had been flung into a neighboring building.

Shukr’s death finally brought him out of the shadows. At his eulogy, his face was printed on billboards and footage of his life on the battlefield was projected onto a large screen as a voice-over extolled his virtues at earsplitting volume.

He was buried in a public cemetery in Beirut alongside a young man who had died fighting in Syria, according to the fighter’s mother.

“We’d heard his name, but we never saw him,” said a young neighbor who sat on the pavement near the building where Shukr was killed. “He was like a ghost.”

>>> Barron's Weekend Summary

Barron's Weekend Summary: This fall, the most significant event for most Americans will not be the election

Cover:
-This fall, the most significant event for most Americans will not be the election as much as the first reduction in US interest rates in over four years. An expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve in mid-September will signal the start of the next phase of the monetary-policy cycle, with important consequences for the economy, financial markets, and consumers. If the Fed eases insufficiently in this cycle, the economy could tip into a recession, and if it cuts rates too quickly, it could reignite inflation and cause a speculative frenzy in the markets. However, if Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues execute a fabled soft landing, the central bank could execute a fabled soft landing that would keep the economy growing at a just-right rate without the threat of recession or pronounced inflation.

Interview:
-Jeff Currie, a seasoned commodity analyst, has been predicting the future of oil, coal, copper, and gold prices for decades. He spent 27 years at Goldman Sachs, eventually becoming the head of global commodities research. Currie's predictions about China's rise in the early 2000s and the U.S. shale boom in the 2010s have significantly influenced the investment conversation around commodities. This year, he was appointed as the chief strategy officer for energy pathways at Carlyle, analyzing commodity markets and investment ideas for the private-equity firm's infrastructure and energy teams. Currie recently spoke with Barron's about the latest moves in the markets and his belief that commodities have entered a new "supercycle" that will lift copper, gold, and oil prices.

Tech Trader:
-Tech executives initially believed that a new generation of AI-powered phones and PCs could boost demand for struggling consumer categories. However, recent evidence shows that the AI consumer shift is slow. Google's Pixel smartphones, featuring AI features like text-to-image generation and photo tweaking, have not been compelling enough to persuade people to buy a new $1,000 device. Apple also revealed incremental features for its Apple Intelligence rollout, such as text summarization and emoji creation. The outlook for computers may be worse than for phones, as despite initial excitement over AI PCs, the near-term optimism for PC demand is fading.

The Trader:
-Weight-loss drugs like Novo Nordisk's Ozempic and Wegovy and Eli Lilly's Mounjaro and Zepbound are causing concern among big food stocks and healthcare companies like Medtronic. Shares of Medtronic, which makes stents, pacemakers, and insulin pumps, are down slightly this year, despite the Health Care Select Sector SPDR index being up over 10%. Investors are concerned that weight-loss drugs may reduce demand for Medtronic's diabetes and cardiovascular products, as well as equipment for bariatric weight loss surgical procedures for obese patients. However, Medtronic has stated that the GLP-1 drugs won't hurt it over the long haul, with Chairman and CEO Geoff Martha stating that there was "zero impact" from weight-loss drugs on its insulin delivery business. He also acknowledged a "modest impact" from declines in bariatric surgery but added that this may be temporary and more people will become eligible for surgery as patients seek more permanent weight loss treatment.
-The Wall Street panic of Aug. 5 has faded, with the S&P 500 index up 3.7% this week, the Nasdaq Composite rising 5.1%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advancing 2.7%. Investors are now aware that the Federal Reserve is set to cut interest rates on Sept. 18, addressing the slowing economy. Traders will receive more information about the central bank's intentions during Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Kansas City Fed's annual Economic Policy Symposium event on Aug. 23. However, the market's mood has turned on a dime, and a growing sense of complacency has washed over Wall Street. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) has returned to more normal levels in the mid-19s after spiking above 65 during the panic.

Features:
-Indian companies have seen record inflows this year, with Goldman Sachs increasing its forecast for India's GDP in 2024. However, the country's economic gains are overshadowed by the violent crimes Indian women continue to face, which have put the nation's systems under a harsh spotlight. On Saturday, all hospital services, except emergency care, will shut down across the country, except for emergency care, as thousands protest the brutal gang rape and killing of a 31-year-old doctor in Kolkata. The medical strike is expected to be the largest in over a decade, closing most hospital departments. India celebrated its 77th anniversary of independence from British rule on Thursday. The optimistic portrayal of India's growing economic might has overlooked the reality of sexual violence, with women regularly reporting assaults, acid attacks, and female feticide.
-Vice President, and 2024 Democratic party presidential candidate Kamala Harris, has been pushed closer to the political center since President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race. In a speech in North Carolina, Harris emphasized the importance of creating opportunities for the middle class to advance their economic stability, security, and dignity. She emphasized the need for an opportunity economy and a vision of interventionist government that would expand upon the base built by Biden. Harris also called for government intervention at a micro level on issues popular with her base, such as enforcing limits on unfair profit-making in grocery stores, rolling back medical debt, and eliminating federally backed student debt. She also proposed cutting taxes on lower-income families with children and focusing on the housing market. Harris shares a willingness to wield government power in support of key constituencies, even if it involves significant economic risks

Europe:
-The World Health Organization declared a global health emergency and reported the first case of a new, more dangerous Mpox strain outside of Africa in Sweden. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends two vaccines to prevent Mpox, one manufactured by Bavarian Nordic and one by U.S. pharmaceutical company Emergent Biosolutions. Mpox vaccine makers Bavarian Nordic and Emergent Biosolutions surged after the news, but not all vaccine makers had a good run. US-listed Siga Technologies released disappointing trial data for a drug to treat Mpox, TPOXX, which failed to meet the primary goal of its study. Siga stock fell almost 20% Thursday and jumped 15.28% early Friday. Meanwhile, Bavarian Nordic's shares jumped 18.5% to 285 Danish crowns ($42) in Europe, adding to Thursday's gains. Bavarian Nordic's vaccine is the only one approved for Mpox in the U.S. and Europe, giving it a significant advantage over competitors and a potential upside to investors in terms of increased vaccine sales.

Emerging Markets:
- Emerging markets have been lagging behind U.S. stocks for years, but the prospect of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve has raised hopes that could change. However, investors and strategists are reassessing their assumptions due to market turmoil. Signs of the U.S. economy slowing down have raised concerns that the Fed may be too slow to change policy, raising the risk of a hard landing before rate cuts take hold. The Bank of Japan has raised interest rates for the first time in over a decade, leading to the unwinding of the popular carry trade. The Fed is expected to deliver a rate cut in September, but questions about how quickly it will lower borrowing costs and whether the US economy will miss out on the soft landing for which policymakers are aiming have raised questions about the benefits for emerging markets.

Commodities:
-Oil prices rose over 3% on Monday due to Israel's anticipation of a potential Iranian attack following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. The Middle East, which holds over half of the world's oil reserves, has been a source of concern for markets, leading to higher crude prices. Brent crude futures settled up 3.3% to $82.30 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures rose 4.2% to $80.06. The rise in crude prices has been supported by stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data, which eased fears of a recession and boosted hopes for an interest-rate cut. Oil markets are also concerned about potential disruptions to supply chains if hostilities escalate. The assassination of Haniyeh, which Iran blames on Israel, has already heightened tensions and prompted concerns of a regional conflagration.

Streetwise:
-Starbucks’s new CEO, Brian Niccol has been praised for his efforts in leading Chipotle through a pandemic shutdown and turning it into an app-centric eatery. This strategy uses predictive analytics to shift workers between counter service and online pickups, reducing customer complaints and worker stress. However, Starbucks faces abandonment issues, with a high percentage of app users quitting after seeing wait times. This could be due to drink complexity or staffing issues. Starbucks' nominal U.S. wages have declined year over year, suggesting understaffing and potentially impacting consumer satisfaction.
Activist investors, such as Elliott Investment Management and Starboard Value, have suggested that the company's problems have straightforward fixes. Starbucks responded to media reports of long wait times earlier this year by describing tools that can predict transaction volume for each 15-minute increment. Staffing for each store is driven by a sophisticated set of data, including historical trends, current trends, planned promotions, and types of available product offerings. In conclusion, Starbucks is already doing big, fancy things to fix its problems, but the question of how low the fruit is remains.

>>> Week-end Papers Summary

FINANCIAL TIMES
-Global stocks have seen their best week since November as volatility eased and investors shook off fears of the US recession. Equity markets worldwide have rebounded sharply from a rout earlier in the month, buoyed by a reassuring run of US data pointing to resilient consumers and falling inflation. Wall Street's S&P 500 index broke a four-week losing streak to close the week up 3.9%, adding 0.2% on Friday for its strongest showing since November. The gains left the blue-chip benchmark just 2% below its record high, reached a month ago. Japanese stocks surged 3.3% on Friday for a weekly gain of 7.9%, while the Stoxx Europe 600 index added 0.3% to stand 2.4% higher. The MSCI World index of global developed market stocks also had its best week since early November.
-Schlumberger (SLB), the world's largest oilfield services company, is expanding in Russia following the exit of its main western rivals since Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. The Houston-based company has signed new contracts and recruited hundreds of staff in the country, despite Baker Hughes and Halliburton selling their Russian businesses to local managers in 2022. Swiss-based ABB chair Peter Voser acknowledges that some competitors may have a competitive advantage, but believes it's a short-term viewpoint that will bite them at some stage. In December, SLB's Russian business signed a contract with Russian oil and gas institute Vnigni to help it build models of oil and gas deposits for project development. The company has posted over 1,000 job advertisements since December, seeking roles ranging from drivers to chemists and geologists.
-Kamala Harris has unveiled parts of her economic program, including new tax relief for families and homebuyers and a crackdown on price gouging, to persuade voters she can tackle the cost of living crisis that has plagued the Biden administration. The Democratic presidential candidate laid out the plans in a speech in North Carolina, where her Republican rival Donald Trump delivered his own speech on economic policy earlier this week. With just over 80 days to go before November's US presidential election, Harris and Trump are battling for votes with just over 80 days to go before November's election. If elected president, Harris would focus on creating opportunities for the middle class to advance their economic security, stability, and dignity.
-Top auction houses are aiming to counter China's economic slowdown by opening new headquarters and exhibition spaces in Hong Kong. Christie's, a 250-year-old auction house, plans to move its regional headquarters to a 50,000 sq ft site in the new Henderson skyscraper in September. Rival Sotheby's has also moved to new offices in Hong Kong's business district. Bonhams, another top auction house, will open its new Hong Kong headquarters in September. The moves come despite a global art market slowdown, weaker luxury spending in China, and dwindling growth prospects in the country. ArtTactic reports that Hong Kong evening sales fell 40% by value in the first six months of this year, the lowest level since 2017.
-The US, Qatar, and Egypt have presented a proposal to bridge the gap between Israel and Hamas, following months of deadlock in talks to end the Gaza war and release Israeli hostages. The US-led talks are critical to securing a ceasefire in Gaza and easing regional tensions amid fears of a broader conflagration. The mediators, who are mediating the talks, said there is no further time to waste and that it is time to release the hostages and detainees, begin the ceasefire, and implement the agreement. The mediators presented Israel and Hamas with a "bridging proposal that is consistent with the principles laid out" in a plan endorsed by US President Joe Biden in May.
-Ukrainian authorities have warned residents near the eastern frontline to evacuate before the arrival of Russian troops, as Moscow continues its own offensive. Ukrainian troops are attempting to gain more Russian territory in the Kursk region, while Russia has made steady gains in Ukraine's Donetsk region. Military administration head Sergey Dobriak in Pokrovsk warned people to leave while there was time as Russian forces had advanced within 10km of the city. Russian-appointed authorities in Donetsk claimed that a Ukrainian missile targeted a shopping mall, causing at least two deaths and 11 injuries. The Ukrainian armed forces declined to comment on the incident. The Institute for the Study of War reported that Russian forces are maintaining their high offensive tempo in the Donetsk region.
-The clade 1 version of the mpox virus, specifically clade 1b, has spread rapidly in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), with the WHO stating that it is associated with more severe disease and higher death rates than clade 2. The WHO advises people to avoid proximity with infected individuals or items they have used, such as bedsheets. Preventive measures, such as isolation, are advised to prevent the virus from spreading. People are infectious until all lesions have crusted over, scabs have fallen off, and a layer of skin forms underneath. The clade 1 case in Sweden is the first sign of an inevitable international spread. Pakistan has also confirmed a case of mpox from a traveler arriving from the Middle East, but did not say if the case is related to clade 1. The WHO is working closely with the Africa CDC, affected countries, and non-governmental organizations to control the outbreak.
-Singapore's annual National Day celebration showcased its military assets, ranking fifth in 2021. The parade, the first under new Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, is driven by rising geopolitical tensions and emerging cyber threats. Wong warned that tensions between the US and China are rising, and while they don't want to collide, they are engaged in a strategic rivalry that could undermine peace and stability in the region. The city state is rethinking its traditional stance of preparation and deterrence.
-Fortnite, a popular video game, is returning to iPhones in Europe and Android devices worldwide, four years after being removed from Apple and Google's app stores in a high-profile antitrust fight. The return of Fortnite to the two dominant mobile platforms and the launch of Epic Games' own mobile app store demonstrates how EU regulation is affecting Big Tech giants. Epic Games has credited the EU's Digital Markets Act, which forces digital "gatekeepers" to open up their platforms to rivals. Fortnite and other Epic Games titles Fall Guys and Rocket League Sideswipe are available on iOS in Europe and Android worldwide, through the Epic Games Store and alternative app stores.
-Chicago officials are preparing to host the Democratic National Convention next week, with 5,000 delegates and 12,000 volunteers expected to attend. The event will feature Kamala Harris and her running mate Tim Walz, but plans for protests against Israel's war in Gaza have evoked memories of the 1968 convention, when Chicago police brutally beat protesters against the Vietnam War. Graphic images of the clashes were broadcast worldwide, and university campuses were engulfed by anti-war protests. Despite changes to the Chicago Police Department in the wake of the 1968 violence, concerns about policing in the city have persisted. In 2019, a federal court imposed a decree requiring the CPD to improve its training, policies, and practices regarding civil rights. However, in 2020, police officers were criticized for their response to the protests and civil unrest following George Floyd's murder.

THE NEW YORK TIMES
-In a roughly 30-minute speech in Raleigh, N.C., Kamala Harris painted a sharp contrast between herself and Mr. Trump, who has spent more time attacking President Biden's economic policies than laying out his own. Harris said that this election is about two very different visions for our nation. One — ours — focused on the future and the other focused on the past. We see that contrast clearly in many ways, including when it comes to how we think about the economy. Harris emphasized that she would create opportunities for the middle class that advance their economic security, stability, and dignity. Together, we will build an opportunity economy where everyone can compete and have a real chance to succeed. Everyone, regardless of who they are or where they start, has an opportunity to build wealth for themselves and their children.
-Russia is advancing towards the strategic eastern Ukrainian town of Pokrovsk, according to open-source battlefield maps. This move raises doubts on Ukraine's hopes that its cross-border offensive will prompt Moscow to scale back its attacks elsewhere. After capturing several villages and pushing along a railway line, Russian forces are now about eight miles from Pokrovsk, one of Ukraine's main defensive strongholds in the Donetsk region. The capture of the city would bring Russia closer to its long-held goal of seizing the entire Donetsk region, much of which it already controls. Pokrovsk, with a prewar population of about 60,000, sits on a key road linking several cities that form a defensive arc protecting the part of Donetsk that is still held by Ukraine.
-South Korea, once under American promise to defend its country with nuclear arms, is now considering relying on its own nuclear arsenal. President Biden reiterated this commitment last year, stating that any nuclear attack by North Korea would lead to the destruction of its government. However, decades of American assurances have failed to deter North Korea from building a nuclear arsenal and expanding it. Led by Kim Jong-un, North Korea has become more provocative, testing missiles powerful enough to reach the United States. Additionally, it has reviving a Cold War-era defense agreement with Russia, another nuclear-armed state. The South has long considered it a taboo to pursue atomic weapons in defiance of Washington's nonproliferation policy. The jitters about security in the South have been intensified by the possible re-election of former President Donald J. Trump, whose commitment to the alliance between Washington and Seoul appears to be shaky at best.
-The Supreme Court has temporarily blocked Education Department rules aimed at protecting transgender students from gender identity discrimination in several Republican states. The order allowed lower courts in Louisiana and Kentucky to maintain halts on federal rules prohibiting discrimination against transgender people in schools. The order came in response to a challenge by the Biden administration, which asked the Supreme Court to intervene after several Republican-led states sought to overturn the new rules. The order allowed rulings by lower courts in Louisiana and Kentucky to remain in effect in about 10 states as litigation moves forward. The decision provided a glimpse into how the current Supreme Court might address transgender rights.
-The United Nations Secretary General, António Guterres, has called for a weeklong cease-fire in Gaza to allow vaccinations to prevent an outbreak of polio, stating that many children are at risk. He spoke just hours before the first case of polio in the enclave in many years was confirmed in a statement from the Gaza health ministry. Guterres said that preventing and containing the spread of polio will take a massive, coordinated, and urgent effort, adding that it is impossible to conduct a polio vaccination campaign with war raging all over. He also warned that the disease could spread to neighboring countries if it were not quickly contained.
-Iran is expected to delay planned reprisals against Israel for the assassination of a top Hamas leader in Tehran to allow mediators time to make a high-stakes push for a cease-fire to end the war in Gaza. Top American, Israeli, Egyptian, and Qatari officials met in Doha, Qatar, for a second day of talks on Friday to resolve remaining gaps between Israel and Hamas. A joint statement from the United States, Egypt, and Qatar said a "bridging proposal" had been presented to both parties. Senior officials from those three governments are expected to reconvene in Cairo before the end of next week.
-Nemat Shafik, the first woman to lead Columbia University, was in a difficult position due to the Israeli-Hamas war and the university's disintegration into factions. She was seen as a peerless pick and a globally minded economist. However, her response to the war was uneven, leaving her with few allies and a campus where she was perceived as insular. By summer break, she had been vilified on campus and in Congress as an ally of antisemitism, a turncoat to academic freedom and free speech, and an enfeebled leader who allowed pro-Palestinian protests to escalate into lawlessness. University officials began weighing police powers for campus security officers. Dr. Shafik was deeply unhappy and believed there was little trust in her administration. She decided to resign from Columbia, accept the British Foreign Office's offer to chair an outside review on development policy, and return to her peerage in the House of Lords.
-Thailand's new Prime Minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, has been chosen by lawmakers after a court ousted the previous prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra. Shinawatra, also known as Ung Ing, is the third and youngest child of the tycoon, who was prime minister from 2001 to 2006. The political parties he founded, including the Pheu Thai party his daughter now represents, consistently won elections. Thaksin was removed in a coup but has wielded influence even while living in exile to escape corruption charges. His uncle, Somchai Wongsawat, was also removed as prime minister in 2008 when the Constitutional Court ordered the dissolution of his party.

THE NEW YORK POST
-Donald Trump has enlisted the help of former Democratic Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, who has experience debating Kamala Harris, for his first debate against her. Gabbard, who was on Trump's running mate shortlist, participated in a strategy session with the former president at his Mar-Lago estate. The Trump campaign confirmed that the former Democratic congresswoman was helping the former president get in shape for his face-off with Harris. Gabbard has experience debating Harris dating back to their time as Democratic presidential primary candidates in 2019, and she unleashed a blistering attack on Harris' record as top prosecutor in the Golden State in one of their showdowns.
-Grocery giant Kroger has pledged to cut prices at Albertsons stores by $1B following its proposed acquisition of the rival chain. However, Wall Street is skeptical the deal will win government approval due to food inflation. Kroger is raising the stakes of the $25B deal since previously promising to lower prices by $500M across Albertsons stores. The deal aims to better position Kroger against Walmart, whose grocery prices are 25% lower than traditional supermarkets and have been gaining market share. Food prices remain 21% higher than they were when President Biden took office three years ago.

FT : Who’s afraid of Elon Musk?

Who’s afraid of Elon Musk?
Is the combative entrepreneur fanning the flames of far-right politics or is he just ‘an angry man screaming into a hurricane’?

Shortly after Elon Musk announced his intention to buy Twitter in April 2022, the billionaire entrepreneur tweeted that for the social media platform “to deserve public trust, it must be politically neutral, which effectively means upsetting the far right and the far left equally”.

Up until that point, the right had repeatedly claimed that Twitter was a progressive mouthpiece, overrun with West Coast liberals who censored views or news they disliked.

Two years on, that notion has been turned on its head. X is now facing accusations that it has become a vehicle for the political views of its owner, who has veered sharply to the right and frequently grandstands on domestic and international affairs.

Over the past few weeks, Musk has enraged police and politicians in the UK by characterising far-right riots in Britain as a “civil war”, making incendiary attacks on prime minister Sir Keir Starmer for clamping down on them, and sharing falsehoods originally posted by the white supremacist group Britain First. In Europe, the EU commissioner Thierry Breton threatened on Monday the “full use” of sanctions under EU law if Musk fails to curb “illegal content”.

In the US, Musk has thrown his full weight behind Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign, hosting a gushing, two-hour interview with the Republican candidate this week and pitching himself as an adviser in a potential Trump White House.

“No one’s themselves in an adversarial interview,” Musk said, setting the tone at the start of the conversation with Trump, just hours after posting a meme directed at Breton urging him to “fnck your own face”.

To his enthusiastic supporters, Musk is a truthteller willing to defend freedom of speech no matter how unpopular. To his critics, Musk’s commentary has exposed as never before the risks of having a political agitator at the helm of one of the world’s top social media platforms and sources of news.

“What’s ironic is that the worst fears of conservatives for years — that the owner would act in a politically biased way — have now happened, but they’ve happened in favour of the rightwing,” says Eli Pariser, co-director of New_ Public, a non-profit organisation focused on building safe digital public spaces. “This is why a ‘global town square’ should not be owned by a Silicon Valley company.”

Musk’s recent provocations also underscore his journey from celebrated innovator to divisive ideologue. For all his achievements in the fields of renewable energy, transportation and space, he is now seen just as much as a troll as a trailblazer.

But for all the noise, can Musk actually sway elections and present a threat to international stability? Or is he merely piggybacking on to events for clicks and showmanship? Musk, says investor and activist Roger McNamee, “may be an angry man screaming into a hurricane”.

As the owner of X, Musk says he is protecting a vision of absolute free speech and eradicating biases that were pervasive under previous liberal management.

Since acquiring the platform for $44bn, he has loosened its moderation policies, allowing previously suspended accounts to return, including that of Trump as well as far-right and white supremacist figures Alex Jones and Tommy Robinson. He has also implemented volunteer moderation features such as “community notes” to help with fact-checking, rather than take down inaccurate or offensive posts.

This year, Musk has increasingly inserted himself into political events at home and abroad. Shortly after the assassination attempt on Trump, Musk publicly endorsed the former president for the first time, and has since said he has contributed to a pro-Trump super Pac.

For years, Republicans complained that social media platforms more broadly were biased against conservative voices. Now, Democrats are the ones complaining.

Jerry Nadler, a congressman from New York, recently called for an inquiry into reports of X users being blocked from following Kamala Harris after she became the party’s presidential candidate. Last week, a popular X account in support of Kamala Harris called “White Dudes for Harris” complained that it had been labelled as spam after being falsely accused of manipulating the platform. Another group, Progressives for Harris, was also temporarily suspended earlier this month.

Experts warn that it is hard to decipher what are technical glitches or errors in moderation enforcement versus deliberate attempts to suppress speech, particularly in the wake of Musk firing many of the company’s communications and policy workers.

“One of the first things that Musk did was remove and lay off whatever infrastructure existed for some transparency into how Twitter was making decisions and what its community guidelines were and how it is being enforced,” says New_ Public’s Pariser. “This has allowed him not only to make more spur of the moment impulsive decisions, but to do [so] with total opacity. When you have a lot of power and no transparency, people have the right to wonder.”

Regardless of whether Musk tinkers with the platform under the hood to further a political agenda or not, there is still the question of the impact of his own X posts, as the most popular account on the platform with nearly 195mn followers.

Musk has previously ordered engineers to manipulate X’s algorithm to juice impressions of his own posts, per media reports (which he tacitly acknowledged in a post). In a sign of his clout, analysis by the Financial Times found that Musk’s recent interactions with far-right accounts and hashtags had significantly boosted their reach, including among users who would not normally be served this type of content.

In the US, ahead of the November vote, some experts warn that Musk’s tendency to share what they deem to be baseless election misinformation or conspiracy theories in particular could be harmful to the democratic process.

The Center for Countering Digital Hate last week found that election claims from Musk that it deemed to be “misleading” — including allegations of Democrats “importing voters” and an AI “deepfake” clip of Harris — had been viewed 1.2bn times on X, with no fact checks or ‘community notes’ appended.

This month, five secretaries of US states wrote an open letter to Musk complaining of election-related misinformation appearing in Grok, the AI chatbot on X.

Musk is unlikely to cause a voter to switch parties in the US, says Katie Harbath, global affairs officer at Duco Experts and previously chief digital strategist for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. But she argues he could have an impact on “voter turnout” if he amplifies misinformation about violence at the polls, for example.

“What I’m most worried about is Elon turning up the rhetoric and heat in a way that could lead to offline violence,” adds Harbath, also a former Meta public policy director.

Quantifying the extent to which online speech can spill over into the real world can be tricky. But already in some countries, Musk’s wading into debates appears to have energised certain local groups.

In Brazil for example, the entrepreneur has been adopted as a talismanic figure by conservatives for pushing back against requests to take down certain popular far-right accounts, calling on a supreme court justice to “resign or be impeached”.

Leonardo Meira Reis, analyst at Eurasia Group in Brasília, warns Musk’s statements on X “have practical repercussions in a deeply divided country like Brazil,” adding: “Musk is not responsible for the political polarisation in Brazil, but his actions make it more evident.”

Meanwhile, researchers at the Network Contagion Research Institute at Rutgers University have found that extremist groups have viewed Musk’s takeover as an opportunity to rejoin the platform en masse. In one report, the Institute found X hashtags in Ireland being used to mobilise anti-immigration demonstrations, just months before public unrest and rioting erupted in the capital.

In the UK, police and analysts say the recent riots were fuelled by X as well as other social platforms, with Musk perceived as fanning the flames. Many fear there is more to come. “The way social media is making headlines currently is not without precedent: a fragile narcissist posting relentlessly on a social network he’s made his own,” wrote Bruce Daisley, former head of Twitter’s operations in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, in an oped. “We know well how this has ended in the past; Donald Trump’s furious posts after his election defeat led to the assault on the Capitol on 6 January 2021.”


Nevertheless, some experts argue that there are limits to Musk’s influence. Under its new owner, X’s cultural significance has been declining and the platform remains far smaller in scale than dominant rival Meta. X’s global user numbers are 359mn, according to data from Emarketer, compared with more than 2bn at Meta’s Facebook.

Others note that many liberals say they are decamping to alternatives such as Meta’s clone Threads, leaving Musk preaching to the converted. “Luckily, X is still not where most people get their news,” says Anupam Chander, a law professor at Georgetown University. “So he can drive a conversation but that doesn’t mean he has the last word.”

Attempts to curb Musk and X have been scattergun. In the EU, leaders are invoking the Digital Services Act, which places responsibilities on social media platforms to police hate speech and disinformation. Under the new rules, if a platform refuses to stop activity that could “cause serious harm”, the EU commission could instruct telecom providers in the member state where the company is based to switch off access to the site.

In the US, there are fewer mechanisms to prevent Musk from using the platform he owns to promote a political agenda or spread misinformation. Traditional news organisations have long had clear rules about how to maintain editorial independence but tech platforms do not fall within that scope, and are protected not only by the First Amendment but also by Section 230 of the Communications Act, which shields them from liability for the content they host.

Emily Bell, a professor at Columbia University journalism school, argues that Musk’s freedom to play the role of strident media baron is a result of Silicon Valley’s long-running aversion to internet regulation creating a regulatory vacuum.

“With Elon Musk, you have the consequence of a world that has been carefully created by a legal argument that says that [social media platforms] are capable of self-regulation,” Bell says. “Elon has come along with a lot of money and he’s leaned on a rotten door and it’s given way. It is a deliberate systemic failure and the platforms are all complicit in that.”