>>> What to look at today - 6th of september 2024

The dollar weakened and US stock futures slipped as traders prepared for US jobs data that may determine the size of a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut this month. Bloomberg’s gauge of the greenback fell for a third day amid speculation a worse-than-expected payrolls outcome could spur the central bank into making a jumbo 50 basis-point cut at its September meeting. Asian equities were mixed ahead of the numbers, while Hong Kong stock trading was shut due to a typhoon. The yen strengthened. There’s limited event risk to be concerned about in Asia “so again the session will be defined by further pre-positioning ahead of US payrolls,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group in Melbourne. “Traders will use the time in front of the screens to review, massage and manage positioning and exposures and the possible cross-market volatility that can kick up.” Treasury yields edged lower after falling Thursday, adding further downward pressure on the greenback. The benchmark 10-year yield dropped one basis point to 3.71%. The so-called whisper number for payrolls among Bloomberg terminal users suggests an addition of just 155,000 jobs for August, below the median economist estimate of 165,000.  Currency traders haven’t been this animated before a US jobs report in more than a year. Options used to gauge swings in the dollar versus its main trading partners hit the highest level for the day since March 2023 So-called risk reversals, a barometer of market positioning, show bearish sentiment prevails for the US currency, and some traders are steering clear of short-term bets altogether, given the uncertainty. Interest-rate swap contracts show a roughly 35% chance that the Fed will cut by 50 basis points when it meets Sept. 17-18. Still, a quarter-point reduction is still favored by many traders and remains the more popular call among economists. Currency strategists see a strong chance the yen will test its August high versus the dollar if the payrolls data boost bets for a 50-basis-point move.  The yen “is where the action will be” if there is any surprise in the figures, said Gareth Berry, a strategist at Macquarie Group Ltd. in Singapore The dollar will be “in deep trouble” versus Japan’s currency if the unemployment rate ticks up to 4.4%, he said. Hong Kong scrapped trading of its $4.9 trillion stock market on Friday as the city prolonged a storm warning due to Super Typhoon Yagi, which skirted the region overnight toward southern China. Elsewhere in Asia, China may be facing new export controls on critical technologies by the Biden administration. Washington has cracked down on China’s ability to access cutting-edge technologies needed for artificial intelligence, over fears that advanced chips and components could lend Beijing a military edge.  Chinese brokerage stocks gained after two of the largest state-backed brokers said they are looking to combine. Analysts said the merger may encourage other firms to follow suit.  China’s sovereign yield curve is steepening as the threat of intervention prompts traders to slow purchases of longer-term bonds. Debt buying has been more pronounced on the shorter end this week, which has widened the yield spread between the two- and 10-year bonds to the most since July.  Traders are also awaiting comments from two Fed speakers later Friday. New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Christopher Waller are scheduled to make comments following the payrolls numbers. Oil headed for its biggest weekly loss in almost a year on concerns about soft demand and ample supply, even as OPEC+ delayed a planned increase in output by two months. Gold was little changed as traders digested the latest US data readings. Iron ore remained on track for its worst week since March, with few signs of a recovery for China’s steel market. US After Hours AVGO -6.4% lower on earnings; AGX +17.3%, PATH +9.4%, GWRE +8.1%, SMAR +3.9% higher on earnings; X +2.3% as CLF CEO appears on CNBC, says CLF still interested in acquiring X.

Nikkei -0.81% Hang Seng -0.07% CSI -0.42% Shanghai -0.33% Shenzen -1.19%

Eur$ 1.1116 CNH 7.0821 CNY 7.0833 JPY 142.59 GBP 1.3175 CHF 0.8422 RUB 88.2668 TRY 33.9979 WTI$ 69.07-0.12% Gold 2,522 +0.20% BTC 56,450 +0.17% ETH 2,384 +0.70%

S&P -0.14% Nasdaq -0.46% EuroStoxx -0.25% FTSE -0.19% Dax -0.20% SMI -0.41%

Macro :
- Economy Will Matter More Than the Election for Stocks in 4Q
- Investment-Grade Firms Shy Away From Convertible Debt: ECM Watch
- Short Sellers Circle Volvo Car, Porsche on China Trade Spat Risk

Keep an eye on :
- AIR FP : Airbus A350 Checks Ordered by EASA After Cathay Engine Fire (2)
- AMZN US : Amazon Near Deal to Broadcast NBA, MLB, NHL Games on Prime: NYP
- AOF GY : Atoss Software Offering by Holders Prices at EU120/Share
- SAB SM : BBVA Says Sabadell Takeover Bid Received Approval From ECB
- BSLN SW : Basilea Gets $25M Milestone Payment From Cresemba Sales
- BKG LN : Berkeley FY Pretax Profit Forecast Meets Estimates
- AVGO US : Broadcom's soft Q4 revenue guidance pushes stock down by -6.8% afterhours; weighs modestly on some of its peers --> MU -0.8%, TSM -0.7%, NVDA -0.7%, AMD -0.4%, MRVL -0.2%
- CRN LN : Cairn Homes CEO Michael Stanley Offers 8m Shares via Goodbody
- ALCAR FP : Carmat Exploring Options to Extend Cash Runway Beyond September
- ATD CN : Seven & I Rejects Couche-Tard Takeover Bid, Shares Dip (Correct)
- DARK LN : Darktrace CEO Poppy Gustafsson to Step Down Effective Today
- DBK GY : Ex-Deutsche Bank Trader Loses UK Case Over $3.4 Million Bonus
- DOCU US : DocuSign Boosts FY Revenue Forecast, Beats Estimates, Falls After Third Quarter Billings Forecast Disappoints
- ELIS FP : Elis Has Made an Offer to Buy Vestis: Reuters
- FIA1S FH : Finnair Aug. Revenue Passenger Kilometers +7.5%
- G4M LN : Gear4Music Says Performance is in Line With Expectations
- INPST NA : InPost 2Q Adjusted Ebitda Beats Estimates
- INTC US : Intel Is Said to Explore Sale of Part of Stake in Mobileye
- MBLY US : *MOBILEYE SHARES DROP AS MUCH AS 5.9%
- ORSTED DC : Orsted Drops Another Green Hydrogen Project, Finans Says
- PLNW FP : Planisware Holder Ardian France Offers 3.2m Shares: Terms
- PLNW FP : Ardian Moves to Exit Planisware Stake Following IPO
- RBI AV : Raiffeisen Says Russian Unit Sale Delayed With Shares Frozen
- RUI FP : Rubis 1H Ebitda EU358M Vs. EU409M Y/y (Sept. 5)
- CRM US : Salesforce Agrees to Buy Startup Own for $1.9 Billion
- SHLF NO : Shelf Drilling Gets Contract in West Africa Worth $60m
- SOF BB : Sofina 1H Net Asset Value per Share EU287
- TEMN SW : Temenos major shareholder Ebner significantly increases stake
- TGS NO : TGS Gets 2D Seismic Contract in Indonesia
- TLGM : Telegram Chief Blames ‘Growing Pains’ in First Post Since Arrest
- TITC BB : Titan Cement Is Said to Pick Banks for IPO of $2 Billion US Unit
- UAA US : Steph Curry Looks to Go All Out With Plank Back at Under Armour
- X US : US Steel Rises as Cliffs CEO Says He’s Still Interested in Firm
- X US : Japan PM Contender Hayashi Holds Out Hope for Nippon Steel Deal
- VSTS US : Elis Has Made an Offer to Buy Vestis: Reuters

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 6th of September 2024

>>> Up
* Hammerson Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT 27 pence
* Inmobiliaria Colonial Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 7 euros
* Kazatomprom GDRs Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $48
* NIO Inc. ADRs Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $8
* U.S. Steel Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $40

>>> Down
* Arteche Lantegi Elkartea Cut to Neutral at JB Capital Markets
* EVN Cut to Accumulate at Erste Group; PT 34.40 euros
* PKO Cut to Hold at Erste Group; PT 63.80 zloty

>>> Initiation
* Assa Abloy Rated New Underweight at Barclays; PT 274 kronor
* Castellum Rated New Underperform at Jefferies; PT 115 kronor
* Chesnara Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 328 pence
* Cibus Nordic Real Estate Rated New Hold at Jefferies
* Fabege Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT 85 kronor
* Melrose Industries Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley

>>> Call

FT : Elon Musk’s China dream stalls as hybrids rush past Tesla

Elon Musk’s China dream stalls as hybrids rush past Tesla
Consumers shift to plug-in models from local rivals such as BYD

Chinese car buyers are shunning Tesla as rival manufacturers flood the world’s largest car market with more advanced electric vehicle models.

The US company’s share of Chinese EV sales, including battery and plug-in hybrids, slipped to 6.5 per cent in the first seven months of the year from almost 9 per cent a year earlier, according to data from Shanghai consultancy Automobility.

Elon Musk’s company, whose first-half Chinese sales of $9.2bn were down from $10.6bn in 2023, has not released a new EV in China since 2019, while other carmakers have launched more than 100 new models in the country this year alone.

“It is going to be very challenging — about impossible — for Tesla to take sales from any competitor without any new products,” said Tu Le, founder of consultancy Sino Auto Insights.

Tesla’s troubles come as China’s EV sales have grown more than 30 per cent so far this year, buoyed by a near-90 per cent jump in sales of plug-in hybrids, according to Automobility. The technology combines a smaller battery with a back-up fuel-powered engine. Tesla did not respond to a request for comment.


As Tesla’s sales fall, Chinese rivals including Warren Buffett-backed BYD are capitalising on the rush for hybrids. The models were initially conceived as a transition technology, but in China, they also benefit from generous EV subsidies and their popularity has forced companies focusing solely on battery-only cars to reconsider their line-ups.

Tina Hou, who leads China auto research for Goldman Sachs, said EV sales growth was increasingly coming from outside the so-called first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. “More and more incremental sales will come from the lower-tier cities. Their charging infrastructure is not as strong, so people will have more range anxiety,” she said.

Bill Russo, the former head of Chrysler in China and founder of Automobility, said Chinese carmakers have quickly met the growing, post-pandemic demand for family cars with a longer driving range. Low-cost, bigger plug-in cars have proved popular for vacation and weekend trips, he said: “Access to charging stations weighs heavily into purchase consideration.”


Shenzhen-based BYD, which controls the biggest share of the plug-in market, has released two hybrid models this year with a mileage of 2,100km from a single charge and one tank of petrol — more than three times the range of Tesla’s Model S.

In August, Volkswagen-backed Xpeng, which has focused solely on batteries, conceded it was “closely studying” new hybrid technologies, while Geely’s Zeekr EV unit said it would release its first hybrid next year.

The growth of low-cost hybrid EVs in China is exacerbating the demise of foreign auto groups, which have been slow to pivot from internal combustion engines. Chinese brands’ share of domestic car sales has risen to a record high of above 60 per cent this year, said experts.

Still, Lei Xing, the founder of Chinese consultancy AutoXing, said Tesla’s decision to offer interest-free loans in China this year has helped limit the fallout. “Maintaining flat growth is a win in the current bloodbath,” he said.

Against this backdrop, analysts said that Musk was under increasing pressure to convince Chinese regulators to give the green light to Tesla’s semi-autonomous driving software — dubbed FSD, or “full self-driving”, a potentially lucrative new revenue stream for the company.

Musk, whose business empire also includes SpaceX and social media platform X, believes deploying the technology is central to future success, including in the nascent robotaxi market. He has prioritised its development above releasing a long-delayed, low-cost EV, known unofficially as the Model 2.

In late April, the billionaire flew to Beijing and met Li Qiang, President Xi Jinping’s number two. The trip appeared to help Tesla ease Beijing’s regulatory concerns over data security compliance and pave the way for access to Chinese mapping and navigation systems. Experts said it signalled Beijing’s approval of Musk and his technology plans.


Yuqian Ding, a Beijing-based analyst with HSBC, said there have been positive signs from Tesla’s local partners that the carmaker’s self-driving platform is moving closer to release. The software would be available to more than 1.6mn Tesla cars in China.

How much of the company’s platform will be available in China remains “heavily debated”, said Ding, adding that most of Tesla’s Chinese rivals are working on similar technologies.

Analysts note that exports from Tesla’s Shanghai factory, which account for about 20-30 per cent of production, are helpful as a buffer against any Chinese slowdown.

However, Tu Le of Sino Auto Insights said it was difficult to see Tesla building “any momentum” in China without new products to compete with the growing menu of Chinese battery EVs and plug-ins, or a sudden change of heart from Beijing over self-driving regulation.

“I think there is some wishful thinking from Elon. I wouldn’t be surprised if before the end of the year he comes over again and tries to massage the FSD launch into China,” he said.

FT : Breaking down the real estate rally


Breaking down the real estate rally
Since mid-May, real estate has been the best-performing sector of the S&P 500, with a total return of 23 per cent. That is 13 points ahead of the market. Can the sector continue to lead?

The main reason real estate has done well over the past three months is that it is rate sensitive. The sector is mostly made up of investment trusts that are owned for their yields; lower rates make those yields more attractive. Relatedly, higher rates bring down the valuations of the assets Reits own, and threaten the most leveraged and lowest quality assets with default. So the sector fell a lot after the Fed started to raise rates in 2022, and has taken a lot of those losses back now that the central bank has signalled its readiness to cut.


The futures market’s best guess is that the Fed’s policy rate will fall from 5.25 per cent now to a bit under 3 per cent two years from now. If that’s about right, and the yield curve regains its normal shape, longer term rates would be in the range of 3.5 per cent to 4 per cent, or 1 to 1.5 percentage points above their level before the inflation shock. That difference is important, because not all of real estate’s rate-driven losses will be regained if rates don’t return to the old lows. Indeed, it is likely that much of the coming decline in rates is priced into real estate stocks already. Barring a further decline in rate expectations, fuel for further sector gains will have to come from elsewhere.

Which segments of the market still have room to recover? Two groups of Reits stand out. Office Reits (Boston Properties, Alexandria, Healthpeak) are still down more than 30 per cent from the peaks and offer dividend yields of 4 per cent to 5 per cent. If you think rates are going to fall fast enough for the office industry to recover before a default wave hits, there is an opportunity there. Apartment Reits (Camden, UDR, Mid-America Apartment, Equity Residential) are still down 10 per cent to 20 per cent and have yields of 3 per cent to 4 per cent. Rent inflation, which spiked wildly in 2021, is now lower than before the pandemic. Might it heat up a bit?

The easy money in the real estate sector has probably been made. Future gains will be earned by investors who know exactly what they are buying.

FT : The Kroger-Albertsons deal has a chance

The Kroger-Albertsons deal has a chance

Kroger-Albertsons
The stock market is pricing in almost no chance that Kroger’s purchase of rival grocery chain Albertsons will survive antitrust scrutiny. But the Federal Trade Commission’s argument against the deal — currently before a federal court in Portland, Oregon — is not ironclad.

Walmart, which has 21 per cent of the market, sells more groceries in the US than anyone else. Kroger, a distant second at 9 per cent, wants to close the gap. In October 2022, it agreed to buy Albertsons — in fourth place with 5 per cent of the market — for $34 a share. Shares of Albertsons, which were trading at about $25, barely moved on the news, and were languishing at $19 yesterday.


On its face, the FTC’s case is strong. The regulator does not think of big box discount stores such as Walmart and Costco as supermarkets. That makes Kroger and Albertsons first and second in their market, and so combining them reeks of oligopoly.

But while Kroger and Albertsons are the largest traditional grocers, Americans don’t only buy food from traditional grocers any more.


If a merged Kroger-Albertsons really means to compete with the Arkansas giant (which also owns Sam’s Club, ranked fifth), the merged retailer would have to drive down prices, not up — a boon to Walmart and Kroger’s consumers alike. From Bill Kirk at Roth Capital Partners:

If you are a current shopper at Albertsons or Safeway [which is owned by Albertsons], there is a good chance your experience gets better. Prices will have to come down to compete with Walmart, especially at Safeway — which is not priced competitively. A lot of Albertsons and Safeway stores are old, and they need investment and remodels, which Kroger will need to do to compete.

The FTC also makes an argument about labour. It claims the combination of the two chains would limit the bargaining power of the unions that represent their workers, particularly in states such as California and Arizona where the combined stores would have a high market share. But that argument has some issues, too. Yes, larger businesses have more bargaining power. But we are talking about grocery stores, where labour is not specialised, and employees often have the ability to switch to other retail jobs. Not to mention a larger Kroger could compete more effectively with non-union Walmart.

The legal landscape has also shifted since the deal was announced, perhaps to Kroger’s benefit. In June, the Supreme Court ended “Chevron deference”, which had given agencies such as the FTC more power in determining the rules of the road. Given that there is some haziness about who Kroger’s competitors are and how this may affect grocery prices, that creates more room for a judge to side with Kroger.

There is no guarantee Kroger will be able to compete effectively with Walmart. If not, all the merger would do is harm smaller retailers and, potentially, consumers. And there are questions about the divestitures the companies have promised in order to avoid local monopolies. From Bill Baer, formerly at the Department of Justice and now at the Brookings Institution:

Nothing I have seen in the pretrial filings suggests that C&S Wholesale, which will buy the divested stores, really has the skill and the scale to be an effective competitor with a merged Kroger . . . And they have not proposed to divest all stores in markets where they overlap — they did some picking and choosing. This looks like a classic example of trying to get a merger through while throwing out some pennies to consumers and workers that, at the end of the day, will be significantly and adversely affected.

When Albertsons bought Safeway in 2015 the divestitures were a disaster. The company that bought the stores went bankrupt eight months later, and Albertsons wound up buying back some of them. The judge in this case may therefore be extra cautious.

Still, it is surprising to us that the market is putting such extremely long odds on this deal going through. It’s a long way from $19 to $34. Is there something we’re missing?

>>> US After Hours Summary: AVGO -6.4% lower on earnings; AGX +17.3%, PATH +9.4%

After Hours Summary: AVGO -6.4% lower on earnings; AGX +17.3%, PATH +9.4%, GWRE +8.1%, SMAR +3.9% higher on earnings; X +2.3% as CLF CEO appears on CNBC, says CLF still interested in acquiring X

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: AGX +17.3%, BOWL +12.6%, PATH +9.4% (also CFO to also become COO; also increases share buyback auth by $500 mln), GWRE +8.1%, AOUT +5.9%, SMAR +3.9%, ZUMZ +3.6%, IOT +1.8%, DOCU +1.4%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: HELE +4.9% (authorizes new $500 mln share repurchase program), PFMT +3.1% (tentative award from NY state), X +2.3% (CLF CEO appears on CNBC; CLF still interested in acquiring X), TVTX +2.1% (FDA grants full approval of FILSPARI), BTBT +1.5% (reports August production data), CLF +0.8% (CLF CEO appears on CNBC; CLF still interested in acquiring X), LULU +0.7% (CEO bought 4000 shares worth $1.04 mln), PNNT +0.5% (to expand investment in joint venture), ROK +0.5% (authorizes new $1 bln share repurchase program), CBOE +0.4% (reports August trading volumes), INTC +0.3% (INTC exploring sale of part of its MBLY stake, according to Bloomberg), VICI +0.2% (increases dividend), BRC +0.2% (increases dividend), GHC +0.2% (Laura O'Shaughnessy discloses 10.8% stake), AWK +0.1% (Indiana approves deal to acquire Silver Creek Water), COST +0.1% (August same store comps), RLGT +0.1% (names new CTO), CYTK +0.1% (to present data)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: SWBI -7.9% (also authorizes new $50 mln share repurchase program), PL -7.2%, AVGO -6.4%, BRZE -5.5%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: AVB -3% (3.2 mln share offering), MBLY -1.9% (INTC exploring sale of part of its MBLY stake, according to Bloomberg), AMRX -1.8% (FDA approves BORUZU), SERV -1.2% (stock offering by selling shareholder), WBX -0.8% (stock offering by selling shareholders), UUUU -0.2% (Base Resources shareholders vote to approve takeover by UUUU), CRM -0.1% (to acquire Own Company, a startup, for $1.9 bln)

>>> U.S. Steel ticking higher after hours as Cleveland-Cliffs CEO Lourenco Gonca

U.S. Steel ticking higher after hours as Cleveland-Cliffs CEO Lourenco Goncalves appears on CNBC; CLF still interested in acquiring X (29.97 +0.58)
  • Note: CLF had made a bid for US Steel last year, but X rebuffed the deal. Then Nippon offered a higher bid that was accepted. Biden administration said today it planned to block the Nippon deal.
  • CLF CEO said on CNBC today that it has been working with its banking group and they are ready to go, but co will not provide details.

Telegram : Message from Pavel Durov sent to his community

❤️ Thanks everyone for your support and love!

Last month I got interviewed by police for 4 days after arriving in Paris. I was told I may be personally responsible for other people’s illegal use of Telegram, because the French authorities didn’t receive responses from Telegram.

This was surprising for several reasons: 

1. Telegram has an official representative in the EU that accepts and replies to EU requests. Its email address has been publicly available for anyone in the EU who googles “Telegram EU address for law enforcement”. 

2. The French authorities had numerous ways to reach me to request assistance. As a French citizen, I was a frequent guest at the French consulate in Dubai. A while ago, when asked, I personally helped them establish a hotline with Telegram to deal with the threat of terrorism in France.

3. If a country is unhappy with an internet service, the established practice is to start a legal action against the service itself. Using laws from the pre-smartphone era to charge a CEO with crimes committed by third parties on the platform he manages is a misguided approach. Building technology is hard enough as it is. No innovator will ever build new tools if they know they can be personally held responsible for potential abuse of those tools. 

Establishing the right balance between privacy and security is not easy. You have to reconcile privacy laws with law enforcement requirements, and local laws with EU laws. You have to take into account technological limitations. As a platform, you want your processes to be consistent globally, while also ensuring they are not abused in countries with weak rule of law. We’ve been committed to engaging with regulators to find the right balance. Yes, we stand by our principles: our experience is shaped by our mission to protect our users in authoritarian regimes. But we’ve always been open to dialogue.

Sometimes we can’t agree with a country’s regulator on the right balance between privacy and security. In those cases, we are ready to leave that country. We've done it many times. When Russia demanded we hand over “encryption keys” to enable surveillance, we refused — and Telegram got banned in Russia. When Iran demanded we block channels of peaceful protesters, we refused — and Telegram got banned in Iran. We are prepared to leave markets that aren’t compatible with our principles, because we are not doing this for money. We are driven by the intention to bring good and defend the basic rights of people, particularly in places where these rights are violated.

All of that does not mean Telegram is perfect. Even the fact that authorities could be confused by where to send requests is something that we should improve. But the claims in some media that Telegram is some sort of anarchic paradise are absolutely untrue. We take down millions of harmful posts and channels every day. We publish daily transparency reports (like this or this ). We have direct hotlines with NGOs to process urgent moderation requests faster.

However, we hear voices saying that it’s not enough. Telegram’s abrupt increase in user count to 950M caused growing pains that made it easier for criminals to abuse our platform. That’s why I made it my personal goal to ensure we significantly improve things in this regard. We’ve already started that process internally, and I will share more details on our progress with you very soon. 

I hope that the events of August will result in making Telegram — and the social networking industry as a whole — safer and stronger. Thanks again for your love and memes 🙏

Le Figaro : Leçon d'investissement : avec ses convictions, le gérant d'actions f

Leçon d'investissement : avec ses convictions, le gérant d'actions français Romain Burnand ne performe pas, il surperforme

LES SECRETS DES GÉRANTS STARS (1/3) - Premier volet de notre série de l'été consacrée à trois gérants d’actions français qui surclassent largement le CAC 40 : Romain Burnand, le fondateur de Moneta Asset Management (AM).

«Quand la marée se retire, on voit ceux qui nageaient nus.» À ce bon mot de Warren Buffett, on pourrait ajouter que c’est quand la marée est basse qu’il faut préparer ses affaires de bain. Un adage que Romain Burnand a fait sien. Passionné de Bourse dès l’adolescence, le futur fondateur de Moneta AM choisit d’abord la voie de l’audit au sortir de l’ESSEC, en 1982. «Cela me semblait solide, sérieux, formateur», indique-t-il. Le krach d’octobre 1987 va tout changer. Les investisseurs fuient? Il y voit au contraire l’occasion d’entrer en scène. «Il se passait des choses en Bourse et je n’y étais pas, se souvient-il. Cela m’a semblé le moment de devenir «pro» !»

Cap sur les marchés

Romain Burnand devient analyste financier, d’abord chez Meeschaert-Rousselle, Cholet Dupont, avant de partir à Londres chez Paribas, puis JP Morgan: 15 ans à disséquer les comptes des banques, son secteur de prédilection. En 2003, il saute le pas et fonde sa propre société de gestion Moneta Asset Management. Là encore, l’époque en aurait rebuté plus d’un. Explosion de la bulle internet en 2000, le 11 Septembre, puis la montée des tensions jusqu’à la guerre d’Irak en mars 2003: les marchés sont assommés. 

Qu’à cela ne tienne ! L’ambition de départ est certes modeste: gérer 50 millions d’euros. «Il fallait juste trois ordinateurs, deux gérants et une personne au middle office», sourit Romain Burnand. Mais Moneta est allé beaucoup plus loin : c'est aujourd'hui 32 salariés et 3,50 milliards d’euros sous gestion, répartis entre trois fonds principaux et une série de fonds datés consacrés aux micro-capitalisations.

Vive la crise !

Lorsque vous interrogez ce chef d’entreprise sur ce que fut sa pire année boursière, ne vous attendez pas à un millésime évident. La crise de 2008? «Elle nous a servi d’accélérateur, car nous avions des valeurs de qualité qui nous ont différenciés de la concurrence», se souvient le gérant. Son pire souvenir, c’est 2023: le fonds Moneta Multi Caps a sous-performé son indice de référence de 11 points de pourcentage dans des marchés porteurs, mais polarisés sur quelques très grandes valeurs. 

«Nous avons aussi fait des erreurs», concède-t-il. L’une d’elles fut de renforcer trop tôt Telepeformance dans la phase de baisse. «Le cours avait déjà été divisé par deux, nous avions de solides arguments sur la controverse ESG, mais forts de ceux-ci et d’une valorisation déjà basse, nous avons sous-estimé l’impact du ralentissement du marché puis l’émotion autour de l’intelligence artificielle», reconnaît-il. Alstom fut une autre déception. 

«Il y a toujours des choses à améliorer, mais un gérant actif doit aussi accepter que sa méthode ne fonctionne pas chaque année.» Et c’est bien en prenant des risques que son fonds Moneta Micro Entreprises - victime de son succès et aujourd'hui fermé aux souscriptions – a rapporté aux investisseurs de la première heure 19 fois leur mise de départ!

Gare à l’émotionnel

Et la meilleure année du gérant ? Ce fut 2020 qui avait plutôt mal commencée : le gérant a pris de plein fouet le choc initial de la pandémie de Covid, mais a su réagir ensuite. «Nous avons été agiles, et avons vendu et renforcé ce qu’il fallait. Nous avions pris des positions dans les renouvelables au moment où elles n’intéressaient personne et elles sont vite devenues chères.» 

Autre pari gagnant: Peugeot, pour miser sur la fusion Stellantis. En 2020, le fonds a battu son indice de 11 points. «Il faut savoir profiter de mouvements émotifs, non rationnels, du marché», conclut-il.

Écrire pour se souvenir

Il est de ceux qui se lèvent tôt pour lire les nouvelles, comme beaucoup de gérants. Une autre de ses habitudes est peut-être plus originale. «Au lancement de Moneta, un client m’avait conseillé d’écrire quelques lignes pour justifier chaque décision de gestion», se souvient-il. Une démarche insufflée à ses équipes, le système d’information gardant une trace de tous ces commentaires. «Écrire oblige à réfléchir, à se poser des questions. Cela permet de contrôler la partie émotionnelle de la décision», argumente Romain Burnand. 

Régulièrement, les gérants de Moneta se replongent ainsi dans leur état d’esprit passé pour analyser d’éventuelles erreurs ou bien retrouver des idées d’investissement. Un exercice réalisé par des professionnels que les amateurs peuvent répliquer chez eux sans danger!

Son avis sur le portefeuille de La lettre

Aux yeux du gérant, le portefeuille de référence de La lettre  est constitué de valeurs solides. C’est bien ce qui l’ennuie. «Ce qui me frappe, ce n’est pas tant ce qu’il y a dans le portefeuille que ce qui manque», assène-t-il. Comment? Aucune banque? «Il n’y a même aucun titre du secteur financier au sens large, regrette-t-il. Pour gagner en Bourse, il faut prendre des risques et les banques sont complètement abandonnées, notamment les banques françaises qui ont plutôt souffert de la hausse des taux.» 

Avec la baisse de taux qui se profile, elles pourraient prendre leur revanche et quitte à prendre du risque, autant le faire de manière franche. «La Société générale est la plus risquée, mais elle est extrêmement sous-valorisée et sa structure financière est plus solide que ce qu’on croit», estime Romain Burnand. Certes, un tel titre souffrirait d’une dégradation financière de la France. Mais attention à la prédilection pour les valeurs tranquilles, qui se paient cher et s’avèrent donc vulnérables en cas de déception.