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Data highlight slow transition to clean energy despite big increase in renewables generation

Greenhouse gas emissions from energy hit a record high last year as demand for fossil fuels rose despite a big increase in renewable power, according to a report that highlights the need to speed up the green transition.

Energy emissions increased 2 per cent in 2023 to exceed 40 gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent for the first time, according to the Energy Institute’s Statistical Review of World Energy.

“Clean energy is still not even meeting the entirety of demand growth,” said Nick Wayth, chief executive of the London-based Energy Institute. “Arguably, the [energy] transition has not even started.”

Wayth highlighted the “lopsided” progress in the shift to renewable electricity generation, which rose 13 per cent from 2022 to hit a record 4,748 terawatt hours.

Fossil fuel use accelerated in high-growth countries such as India, but there were signs demand had reached a peak in Europe, the US and other advanced economies.

The report, which was published on Thursday, said global primary energy use climbed 2 per cent to a record 620 exajoules — 1EJ is equivalent to about 170mn barrels of oil. Fossil fuels’ share in the energy mix dipped only slightly by 0.4 percentage points to 81.5 per cent. Its proportion was 86 per cent in 1995.

The data highlight the challenges seven months after countries at the COP28 conference in Dubai set ambitious targets to speed up the transition away from fossil fuels, in a bid to limit global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

Simon Virley, head of energy at KPMG, which co-authored the report, said it was “time to redouble our efforts on reducing carbon emissions and providing finance and capacity to build more low-carbon energy sources in the global south”.

This year’s report shows the share of fossil fuels in Europe’s energy mix falling below 70 per cent for first time since the industrial revolution, as the continent continues to cut its reliance on Russian gas following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, and steadily weans itself off coal.

“It would take a major unexpected change for Europe to revert from this course,” Wayth said.

In the US, coal consumption fell 17 per cent, helping to push the country’s overall fossil fuel use down 2 percentage points to just over 80 per cent of primary energy consumption.

Both economies were “exhibiting clear signs of peaking or post-peak fossil fuel demand”, Wayth said.

In contrast, India’s use of fossil fuels climbed 8 per cent, with its coal consumption overtaking the combined use in North America and Europe for the first time.

While the country was on track to meet its targets for building new renewable power capacity, this was “far from sufficient to cover the overall increase in power demand”, Wayth said.

In China, which accounts for about 30 per cent of global energy, fossil fuel consumption climbed 6 per cent to a new high of 139 EJ.

However, the country has been rapidly rolling out renewable power, with its new solar and wind capacity accounting for 63 per cent of global installations last year. It is also home to half of the world’s large power storage batteries.

Overall, the proportion of fossil fuels in China’s primary energy mix has been falling over the past decade, reaching 81.6 per cent in 2023.

Wayth said China’s rapid renewables growth pointed to a “potential inflection point”, which could see clean energy sources meeting electricity demand growth in 2027 and exceeding it by 2030.

Oil and gas major BP published the Statistical Review of World Energy for more than 70 years before the Energy Institute, a body that represents professionals in the sector, took over producing the report last year.

REPORTAGE - En ouverture des 24 Heures du Mans, la filiale sportive de Renault a fait rouler un prototype à l’hydrogène, avec Zinédine Zidane en passager. Cette Alpenglow sert de développement aux futurs moteurs à hydrogène d’Alpine, en compétition comme sur route.

Cela fait plusieurs années que l’engagement aux 24 Heures du Mans d’une voiture carburant à l’hydrogène est attendu. Mais, telle l’Arlésienne, cette participation ne semble jamais voir le jour ! En 2013, Green GT aurait dû aligner un prototype à pile à combustible, dans le cadre du Garage 56, un engagement hors classement pour éprouver des technologies expérimentales. L’écurie suisse s’est finalement désistée quelques jours avant la course. Elle s’est contentée d’un tour d’honneur en ouverture de l’édition 2021.

Lors de la conférence de presse de l’édition du centenaire en 2023, Pierre Fillon, le président de l’Automobile Club de l’Ouest qui organise la célèbre course d’endurance, promettait un nouveau règlement pour ce type de carburant en 2026. Quelques mois plus tard, la date de 2027 était annoncée comme plus raisonnable. Juste avant les 24 Heures du Mans 2024, Pierre Fillon a de nouveau repoussé l’échéance à 2028… Mais cette année encore, les voitures à hydrogène sont sur toutes les lèvres dans la Sarthe. Quatre autos ont roulé en ouverture de la course.

L’Alpine est la plus prometteuse

Parmi les voitures qui ont effectué un tour d’honneur, la Mission H24 de Green GT est la seule à s’en remettre à une pile à combustible. Verra-t-on cette technologie au départ en 2028 ? Rien n’est moins sûr puisque l’écurie nous confiait l’an dernier qu’elle ne s’inscrirait pas en course. La Foenix H2 de Solution F (une entreprise du groupe GCK), la Ligier JS2 RH2, développée avec Bosch et l’Alpine Alpenglow s’en remettaient, elles, à des moteurs à combustion adaptés au carburant hydrogène.

Dans le lot, l’Alpine est sans doute la plus prometteuse. Car elle est le fruit d’un grand constructeur, un des rares avec Toyota à développer cette technologie pour la compétition et même les voitures de série. Pourtant l’Alpenglow ne sera jamais engagée en compétition ni produite en série. Cette auto, dont le soin esthétique dans le détail sidère, restera un prototype. « L’Alpenglow est avant tout un laboratoire roulant », assure Pierre-Jean Tardy, ingénieur en chef hydrogène chez Alpine Racing.

En ouverture des 24 Heures du Mans, l’Alpine Alpenglow a fait le show. Zinédine Zidane, qui donne le départ de cette édition, était dans le siège passager du proto, avant d’apposer sa signature. L’auto a ravi les yeux des spectateurs par son style… et leurs oreilles par la sonorité de son moteur. On sait le public des 24 Heures du Mans très attaché à cet aspect, et c’est un des points qui plaide en faveur des moteurs à combustion plutôt que la pile à combustible, rigoureusement silencieuse.

Cela fait plusieurs années que l’engagement aux 24 Heures du Mans d’une voiture carburant à l’hydrogène est attendu. Mais, telle l’Arlésienne, cette participation ne semble jamais voir le jour ! En 2013, Green GT aurait dû aligner un prototype à pile à combustible, dans le cadre du Garage 56, un engagement hors classement pour éprouver des technologies expérimentales. L’écurie suisse s’est finalement désistée quelques jours avant la course. Elle s’est contentée d’un tour d’honneur en ouverture de l’édition 2021.

Lors de la conférence de presse de l’édition du centenaire en 2023, Pierre Fillon, le président de l’Automobile Club de l’Ouest qui organise la célèbre course d’endurance, promettait un nouveau règlement pour ce type de carburant en 2026. Quelques mois plus tard, la date de 2027 était annoncée comme plus raisonnable. Juste avant les 24 Heures du Mans 2024, Pierre Fillon a de nouveau repoussé l’échéance à 2028… Mais cette année encore, les voitures à hydrogène sont sur toutes les lèvres dans la Sarthe. Quatre autos ont roulé en ouverture de la course.

L’Alpine est la plus prometteuse

Parmi les voitures qui ont effectué un tour d’honneur, la Mission H24 de Green GT est la seule à s’en remettre à une pile à combustible. Verra-t-on cette technologie au départ en 2028 ? Rien n’est moins sûr puisque l’écurie nous confiait l’an dernier qu’elle ne s’inscrirait pas en course. La Foenix H2 de Solution F (une entreprise du groupe GCK), la Ligier JS2 RH2, développée avec Bosch et l’Alpine Alpenglow s’en remettaient, elles, à des moteurs à combustion adaptés au carburant hydrogène.

Dans le lot, l’Alpine est sans doute la plus prometteuse. Car elle est le fruit d’un grand constructeur, un des rares avec Toyota à développer cette technologie pour la compétition et même les voitures de série. Pourtant l’Alpenglow ne sera jamais engagée en compétition ni produite en série. Cette auto, dont le soin esthétique dans le détail sidère, restera un prototype. « L’Alpenglow est avant tout un laboratoire roulant », assure Pierre-Jean Tardy, ingénieur en chef hydrogène chez Alpine Racing.

En ouverture des 24 Heures du Mans, l’Alpine Alpenglow a fait le show. Zinédine Zidane, qui donne le départ de cette édition, était dans le siège passager du proto, avant d’apposer sa signature. L’auto a ravi les yeux des spectateurs par son style… et leurs oreilles par la sonorité de son moteur. On sait le public des 24 Heures du Mans très attaché à cet aspect, et c’est un des points qui plaide en faveur des moteurs à combustion plutôt que la pile à combustible, rigoureusement silencieuse.

L'Alpine Alpenglow avec Zinedine Zidane à son bord.

L’Alpine Alpenglow avec Zinédine Zidane à son bord.

Malgré cette apparition remarquée, l’Alpenglow vit déjà ses dernières heures sous cette forme. « Bientôt, le quatre-cylindres qui l’anime sera remplacé par un V6 », révèle Pierre-Jean Tardy. « L’aérodynamique sera également revue pour l’occasion ». Le quatre-cylindres était un coup d’essai. Développé avec Oreca, sur la base d’un moteur de course déjà existant, il a permis à Alpine d’emmagasiner du savoir-faire. Le V6, toujours réalisé avec Oreca, sera lui dessiné à partir d’une feuille blanche. « C’est, à ma connaissance, le premier moteur à combustion conçu uniquement et dès le départ pour une carburation à l’hydrogène. » Le cahier des charges, les principaux choix techniques et les simulations seront effectués chez Alpine à Viry-Chatillon. C’est Oreca qui se charge du dessin des plans et des tests sur banc.

Grandes ambitions

Alpine nourrit de grandes ambitions pour ce V6 testé dans l’Alpenglow. La marque n’a certes pas, au contraire de Toyota, annoncé officiellement sa participation aux 24 Heures du Mans 2028 dans la nouvelle catégorie réservée aux voitures à hydrogène, mais un avenir en compétition est d’ores et déjà envisagé. Aussi, il devrait être utilisé dans un modèle de série, un coupé haut de gamme. Quant à la future A110, qui sera d’abord commercialisée avec une motorisation 100 % électrique, rien n’interdit le montage d’un quatre-cylindres à hydrogène. La rumeur dit même que c’est la raison pour laquelle le partenariat de développement avec Lotus a été abandonné. La plateforme conçue par la marque d’Hethel ne pouvait pas accepter de moteur à combustion.

Ilya Sutskever, the OpenAI cofounder and former chief scientist who tried to oust CEO Sam Altman last year, said Wednesday he had launched a new artificial intelligence lab with startup investor Daniel Gross and another former OpenAI researcher, Daniel Levy. The lab, Safe Superintelligence, has offices in Palo Alto, Calif., and Tel Aviv, where Sutskever and Gross grew up, according to its bare-bones website. The co-founders said they hope to develop AI without the distractions of generating revenue in the short run. They did not disclose their investors, though Gross has raised lots of capital to invest in AI ventures and numerous venture investors have privately said they would be more than happy to back Sutskever.

The move means OpenAI will face yet another rival started by alumni. Its primary startup rival, Anthropic, was started by former OpenAI employees, and OpenAI co-founder Elon Musk runs a rival firm, xAI. Superintelligence is a term that refers to software might help humans solve difficult challenges such as curing cancer or colonizing Mars. Sutskever has been concerned about AI that could cause unintended consequences, and at times clashed with Altman and others over their investment in efforts to safeguard the AI they were building, The Information has reported. Sutskever and three other OpenAI board directors ousted Altman on Nov. 17 but an employee revolt about the move prompted them to reverse course.

The campaign follows a purge of more than a dozen senior generals and defense-industry executives

Chinese leader Xi Jinping ordered a redoubled campaign to eradicate graft and enforce loyalty in the military, suggesting no end to a purge in the country’s defense establishment that has raised questions about Beijing’s ability to wage war.

This week, addressing top military officials at one of the Communist Party’s most hallowed revolutionary bases—which were used in its struggle to take power—Xi used the first military political-work conference in a decade to warn against the dangers of corruption and ideological slippage in the People’s Liberation Army, cautioning that decaying discipline could torpedo efforts to field a fighting force capable of taking on powerful Western militaries.

“The gun barrel must always be grasped by people who are loyal and reliable to the party,” and combat effectiveness can only be forged through strict discipline, Xi said at the conference on political indoctrination in the PLA, according to the official Xinhua News Agency. “There must be no place in the military for corrupt elements to hide.”

Xi identified what he called deep-seated problems in the military that have manifested in areas such as ideology, discipline, ethics and moral character—and ordered officials at all levels to tackle these issues at their roots.

The PLA must “eradicate the soil and conditions where corruption breeds,” by strengthening ideological indoctrination and expanding its toolbox for tackling new and hidden forms of corruption, he said in opening the three-day conference, which ended Wednesday. He called on the military to deliver “outstanding results” by the PLA’s centenary in 2027.

Over the past year, authorities have removed more than a dozen senior generals in the PLA, one of the world’s largest armed forces, and defense-industry executives, many of them over alleged wrongdoing widely seen as graft-related.

“The PLA has been beset by corruption scandals and purges at the very highest levels in the last few years,” said M. Taylor Fravel, a professor and director of the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “Whatever the reasons behind these purges, this situation calls for reaffirming the party’s ‘control of the gun’ and the PLA’s absolute loyalty to the party.”

Fravel said Xi might have been motivated by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s lackluster gains in Ukraine, which military experts have blamed in part on widespread corruption.

“As we know from Russia’s invasion, a corrupt force is likely to severely underperform on the battlefield,” Fravel said.

The conference took place in the northern city of Yan’an, a revolutionary base from the 1930s to 1940s that the Communist Party celebrates as sacred ground. Revolutionary leader Mao Zedong spent more than a decade there rebuilding a battered Red Army and preparing for the campaign to seize power over mainland China—culminating in the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949.

Yan’an “was where the Red Army began to reconstitute itself after the Long March that decimated its ranks,” Fravel said, referring to the 1934-35 military retreat that was later celebrated as a strategic triumph. “It has relevance not just for the PLA’s own history but also the party’s history.”

The Communist Party last convened a military political-work conference in late 2014, when Xi visited the southeastern town of Gutian to honor a military conclave that Mao and other party leaders held 85 years earlier to discuss ways to strengthen an inexperienced Red Army.

Party lore commemorates the 1929 Gutian Meeting as a key moment when the core principle that “the party commands the army” was established. Xi harked back to that legacy in his first military political-work conference, telling attendees that the PLA must instill ideals and convictions throughout its ranks, and step up its struggle against graft.

At the time, Xi was directing an anticorruption crackdown on the PLA, which helped him assert control over China’s politically influential military establishment and push through a wide-ranging program that aimed to transform a Soviet-style military into a 21st-century fighting force. He purged several senior generals, clearing the way for him to promote officers considered to be more professional and politically reliable.

Beijing has claimed initial success in upgrading the PLA, conducting increasingly complex drills—such as combined aerial and naval maneuvers—to demonstrate improved capabilities, while at times acknowledging some shortcomings that need attention. The PLA has also ramped up its operational tempo, conducting more aerial sorties and naval drills along China’s periphery and beyond.

A far-reaching shake-up across senior military ranks over the past year, however, suggested that corruption remains a scourge in the PLA—and raised questions over its combat readiness.

China abruptly removed Li Shangfu as defense minister without explanation in October, two months after his last public appearance and just seven months after he got the job. Weeks later, Beijing ejected nine high-ranking PLA officers from China’s legislature and stripped three top defense-industry executives of their roles as government advisers.

The legislature later disclosed that the nine removed PLA officers were all under suspicion for “serious violations of discipline and the law,” an official euphemism for corruption. They included two generals who previously commanded China’s strategic-missile force, a former air-force chief and an admiral who led naval forces operating in the South China Sea.

Some of the nine officers have been involved in arms procurement, a field long seen as susceptible to corruption.

Xi personally decided to convene this week’s meeting, according to Xinhua.

Traveling to Yan’an was a way to “trace our roots,” Xi said. While the prospects are bright on the vision of forging a strong military, he said, “the mission is arduous.”

Buyout group’s last-minute decision not to list high-end footwear brand followed fractious talks with advisers

Bankers were adamant Golden Goose, the maker of the €500 distressed-look trainers favoured by Taylor Swift, was ready to become a public company.

After more than 10 months of preparation, the Italian footwear brand was seeking to raise about €600mn in a Milan listing as early as Friday. It had reported strong first-quarter sales. No less than seven banks had been building its IPO book, which was by Tuesday oversubscribed. Fund manager Invesco had agreed to be a cornerstone investor.

But Francesco Pascalizi, the dealmaker in charge of the investment at private equity owner Permira, suddenly got cold feet.

Permira’s decision to pull the highly anticipated listing late on Tuesday shocked advisers and investors that had committed to the fundraising. It dealt a blow to the tentative recovery of Europe’s IPO market, and more companies that had been planning a listing this year may now err on the side of caution and put off their plans in the wake of the aborted flotation.

The last-minute collapse also underscores the nervousness of Permira in the wake of a series of underperforming listings, including that of Dr Martens in 2021. The bootmaker has since issued five profit warnings and its shares have plunged 80 per cent.

Talks that led to the decision were fractious, according to multiple people directly involved in the listing preparations. The divergence of views between advisers and their private equity client sparked “long and heated discussions”, according to one insider.

“With all due respect what the fnck are you talking about,” one adviser lashed out during a call on Tuesday, according to other people on the line. 

“It looks bad to pull out two days before the debut, but it looks much worse if the stock plunges 20 per cent in the first week of trading,” a banker remarked on Wednesday.

“Permira can’t afford another embarrassment after Dr Martens,” said another.

Executives at the €80bn London-based buyout group started worrying last week, according to people close to the talks. Shares in LVMH and puffer jacket maker Moncler tanked following French President Emmanuel Macron’s surprise decision to call snap parliamentary elections, raising the prospect of a far-right government leading Eurozone’s second-largest economy.

As investors reduced their exposure to European stocks, “big names that had committed dozens of millions” to the Golden Goose IPO scrapped their orders, said one person close to the talks.

It did not help that important investors such as BlackRock and GIC had stayed away, according to people with knowledge of the bookbuilding. Permira feared a sell-off in the after-market, people close to the buyout group said.

Bookrunners, however, pushed back until the end: the investor mix was strong enough to go ahead, they argued. To be sure, the IPO would price near the bottom of the range at €9.75 per share, valuing the company at less than €2bn — much lower than the €3bn that had previously been speculated.

But the book was roughly four times subscribed at that price. And the company’s top management, led by Silvio Campara, believed the valuation was “fair”, as did Permira, according to three people.

The private equity group bought Golden Goose, which is headquartered near Venice, just before the pandemic led to global lockdowns, with Italy among the most severely affected countries.

While the global luxury sector has been facing a slowdown this year, Golden Goose reported a 12 per cent rise in revenue in the first quarter. 

“Dr Martens was by far a lower price point and is more an upper mass-market product, [while[ Golden Goose is more accessible luxury and is able to build up its story,” said Mario Ortelli, an adviser focused on luxury.

However, Permira’s record was a sensitive issue, market participants say. French cyber security company Exclusive Networks, which it listed in 2021 at €20 per share, is now trading at just €19. TeamViewer and Allegro, which the firm took public in 2019 and 2020, respectively, both trade below their IPO prices.

Permira sold the last of its stake in Hugo Boss in March 2015, shortly before a sharp drop in its share price, which is now more than 60 per cent below its level when the buyout group exited.

Permira had initially sought to bring large institutional Asian investors on board but failed, according to three people familiar with the talks. Singapore’s GIC, for example, had been approached to be an investor in the deal but decided against it. GIC declined to comment. Another opt-out was BlackRock, said the people. BlackRock could not immediately be reached for comment.

“The risk of this turning into a mediocre IPO was higher than the advantage of going ahead,” said one participant.

Permira may attempt to revive the listing in the next few weeks, some advisers said. But its decision not to go ahead may have taken the momentum out of the whole IPO market in Europe. Other listing candidates are also thinking twice about their plans, including Tendam, a private equity-owned Spanish retailer. Tendam declined to comment.

Campara, however, said he was hopeful the IPO preparations would not go to waste.

“Golden Goose is a great story of love and our priority has always been to tell this story to the right community of investors,” he told the Financial Times after the decision to postpone the company’s listing. The roadshow made investors “perceive Golden Goose not only as a strong and profitable business, but as a true Next Gen global luxury company.”