>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 11th of November 2024 V2(+)

>>> Up
* BASF Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 53 euros
* Bittium Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 7.50 euros
* Cancom Raised to Buy at Hauck & Aufhaeuser; PT 32 euros (+)
* Cargotec Raised to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 58 euros (+)
* Ceres Power Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 265 pence
* Citycon Raised to Hold at DNB Markets; PT 3.75 euros
* Cloudberry Clean Energy Raised to Buy at DNB Markets (+)
* CMB Tech NV Raised to Buy at Fearnley; PT 16.84 euros (+)
* Dell Technologies PT Raised to $154 from $136 at Morgan Stanley (+)
* DS Smith Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 580 pence
* Exmar Raised to Hold at KBC Securities; PT 7.40 euros (+)
* Hiscox PT Cut to 1,150 pence from 1,225 pence at RBC
* Hufvudstaden Raised to Hold at ABG; PT 135 kronor
* Kamux Raised to Buy at Inderes; PT 4 euros (+)
* Kojamo Raised to Buy at DNB Markets; PT 10.50 euros
* Leonardo PT Raised to 30 euros from 28 euros at Bernstein
* Leonardo PT Raised to 30 euros from 28 euros at Mediobanca SpA
* Lindab Raised to Buy at Handelsbanken (+)
* MTU Aero Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 400 euros
* Norske Skog Raised to Buy at DNB Markets; PT 32 kroner
* Nvidia PT Raised to $160 from $150 at Morgan Stanley (+)
* Prysmian Raised to Reduce at AlphaValue/Baader
* Richemont Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 155 Swiss francs
* Ryanair Raised to Buy at UBS (+)
* SBM Offshore Raised to Add at AlphaValue/Baader
* Studentbostader i Norden Raised to Hold at Arctic Securities
* Swiss Re Raised to Buy at UBS (+)
* Wartsila Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley

>>> Down
* Alfa Laval Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 430 kronor
* AMS-Osram Cut to Hold at Research Partners; PT 7 Swiss francs (+)
* Anima Holding Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 6.20 euros
* DNO Cut to Neutral at SpareBank; PT 12 kroner
* Merck & Co Cut to Neutral at Daiwa; PT $100
* Mendus Cut to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 14 kronor
* Mondi Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 1,150 pence
* Nel Cut to Underperform at Jefferies; PT 3 kroner
* Nemetschek Cut to Neutral at UBS (+)
* OKEA Cut to Neutral at SpareBank; PT 25 kroner
* QleanAir Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 22 kronor
* Sparebanken More Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 95 kroner (+)
* Tinexta Cut to Neutral at Mediobanca SpA; PT 15.50 euros
* Tinexta Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 10 euros (+)
* Torm PT Cut to $36 from $40 at Evercore ISI

>>> Initiation
* AMD Rated New Market Perform at CICC; PT $155
* Springer Nature Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT 39 euros
* Springer Nature Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley
* Springer Nature Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 29 euros
* Springer Nature Rated New Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 33 euros
* Springer Nature Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 29 euros (+)
* Springer Nature Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT 29 euros (+)
* Stellantis Rated New Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $13.92
* Trustpilot Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 331 pence (+)

>>> Call
* Alfa Laval Downgraded, Wartsila Upgraded at Morgan Stanley
* Ceres Power Rises as Jefferies Upgrades, Nel Drops on Downgrade (+)
* Goldman Strategists See US Policy Risk for EPS Growth Forecasts
* Gresham House Energy Storage Fund/The Raised to Buy at Stifel (+)
* Leonardo PTs Boosted to New Street-High at Bernstein, Mediobanca
* Novo Nordisk Shares Put on Positive Catalyst Watch by JPMorgan
* Springer Nature Gets Host of New Buys on Strong Market Position (+)
* Stellantis Inline at Evercore, Hard to Be Constructive Near-Term
* Subsea 7 Upgraded at Morgan Stanley, Wood Price Target Slashed

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Continental (CON TH) +4.4%
    • Continental Cuts FY Sales Forecast
  • Delivery Hero (DHER TH) +3.4%
    • Delivery Hero Tees Up Mega Dubai IPO of Middle Eastern Unit (2)
  • EDP Renovaveis (EDW TH) +2.3%
  • NatWest (RYSD TH) +2.2%
    • UK Completes Off-Market Purchase of £1b NatWest Shares
  • Barclays (BCY TH) +2.2%
    • Bank CET1s Steady Amid Benign Asset Quality; Lending Still Slow
  • BCP (BCPN TH) +2.1%
  • Rolls-Royce (RRU TH) +2.1%
  • CaixaBank (48CA TH) +1.9%
  • MTU Aero (MTX TH) +1.8%
  • BASF (BAS TH) +1.8%
    • BASF Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 53 euros
  • Vodafone (VODI TH) -1%
  • J. Martins (JEM TH) -1.2%
  • Sabadell (BDSB TH) -1.4%
  • Investor AB (IVSD TH) -1.5%
  • Rentokil (RTO1 TH) -1.6%
  • Telefonica (TNE5 TH) -1.9%
  • Prosus (1TY TH) -2.2%
  • Umicore (NVJP TH) -2.5%
  • Direct Line (D1LN TH) -3%
    • Direct Line 3Q Gross Written Premiums GBP835.9M Vs. GBP1.28B Y/y
  • Nemetschek (NEM TH) -3.3%
    • Nemetschek Cut to Neutral at UBS

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Continental (CON TH) +4.8%
    • Continental Cuts FY Sales Forecast
  • BASF (BAS TH) +1.6%
    • BASF Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 53 euros
  • Zalando (ZAL TH) +1.5%
    • Zalando Set to Quicken GMV, Repair Gross Margin With New Model
  • Infineon (IFX TH) +1.1%
  • Airbus (AIR TH) +1%
MDAX:
  • Aroundtown (AT1 TH) +4.1%
  • Delivery Hero (DHER TH) +3.1%
    • Delivery Hero Tees Up Mega Dubai IPO of Middle Eastern Unit (2)
  • Hensoldt (HAG TH) +1.4%
  • Jungheinrich (JUN3 TH) +1.1%
  • Jenoptik (JEN TH) +1.1%
  • Nemetschek (NEM TH) -2.8%
    • Nemetschek Cut to Neutral at UBS
SDAX:
  • Evotec SE (EVT TH) +4.4%
  • Salzgitter (SZG TH) +1.9%
    • Salzgitter 9M Pretax Loss EU141.2M Vs. Profit EU254.3M Y/y
  • SUSS MicroTec (SMHN TH) +1.5%
  • Deutz (DEZ TH) +1.4%
  • AUTO1 (AG1 TH) +1.3%
  • Adtran Holdings (QH9 TH) -1.1%
  • Borussia Dortmund (BVB TH) -1.6%

WSJ : The Crypto World Is Preparing for a Renaissance Under Trump

The Crypto World Is Preparing for a Renaissance Under Trump
Bitcoin prices surged to a record Sunday, hitting $80,000 for the first time

Bernie Moreno was celebrating Tuesday night at La Centre, a banquet center in the Cleveland suburbs, when he got a call from Brian Armstrong, Brad Garlinghouse and a handful of other crypto executives.

The Republican had just defeated three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown, the head of the Senate Banking Committee and one of the largest crypto critics on Capitol Hill. The executives wanted to congratulate Moreno.

The crypto industry emerged as one of the biggest spenders of the election cycle by donating $170 million to a trio of super PACs to elect friendly lawmakers such as Moreno, a former blockchain entrepreneur and car dealer running for election in Ohio.

The effort met with resounding success: 50 of the 58 general-election candidates the super PACs supported won their races, the AP projects. Eight contests were still too close to call as of Sunday evening.

The enthusiasm has been reflected in the market, too. Bitcoin prices surged to a record Sunday, hitting $80,000 for the first time, in a rally that seemed unfathomable in the midst of the 2022 market meltdown that culminated in the collapse of exchange FTX.

Now, the crypto world expects President-elect Donald Trump and the next Congress will deliver what it has long desired: rules that treat it differently from Wall Street.

Trump has vowed to ease the regulatory burden on crypto and create a reserve to hold the nation’s bitcoin supply. Congress will soon be full of lawmakers—young and old—who believe cryptocurrency is a unique asset class that shouldn’t be regulated like stocks and bonds.

Eric Trump, one of the president-elect’s sons, retweeted a meme after the election of a bitcoin flag flying over the White House, a post that captures the hope felt by many in the crypto world.

“We’ve turned a corner,” said Kristin Smith, chief executive of the Blockchain Association, an industry lobbying group. “Our worst days as an industry are behind us, and we are on a path to getting appropriate and lasting policy.”

Several industry executives touted Moreno’s victory on social media and celebrated their role.

“Being anti-crypto is simply bad politics,” Armstrong, chief executive of exchange Coinbase Global, said of Brown’s defeat on X.

“As a pro-innovation, pro-business candidate, I think [Moreno’s] going to be exactly the kind of person we need in the Senate,” said Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple Labs, who personally donated money to Moreno’s campaign.

Some of the biggest challenges that crypto executives have identified are preventing regulatory oversight from hampering their growth, gaining access to banking, and stabilizing dollar-pegged cryptocurrencies.

It helps that crypto’s biggest critics may soon be gone from Washington. Trump will replace its biggest nemesis: Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler, who argues that crypto firms should have to follow his agency’s investor-protection rules.

The regulator sued the industry’s biggest exchanges—Coinbase, Binance and Kraken—last year, saying they should comply with rules that govern stock exchanges. The spate of litigation galvanized crypto supporters. Republican lawmakers oppose the way Gensler has used his enforcement division to try to rein in big crypto players.

“We are going to make certain that they know what the rules are and how to follow them so that the crypto industry can thrive here,” said Moreno, the incoming Ohio senator. “We have to make sure this technology grows and thrives in America.”

Meanwhile, Brown’s likely successor atop the Senate Banking Committee, Sen. Tim Scott (R., S.C.), wants to draft a new regulatory framework for crypto that eases the requirements for firms engaging in trading and custody.

With Republicans set to take the Senate and retain control of the House, some legislation that previously stalled may stand a better chance of moving forward, even if it is rewritten by the chamber’s new power players.

In May, for example, the House overwhelmingly passed the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act. That bill would have given more responsibility for overseeing crypto to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a smaller agency that is seen as more receptive to digital assets. The Senate, controlled by Democrats, didn’t advance the legislation.

“I believe the industry is hopeful that there could be some action taken on those bills during the lame duck,” said Rep. French Hill (R., Ark.). “I hope that’s the case but if it’s not, we’ll be ready to go, and it will be a top priority in the new Congress.”

Hill is chair of the digital assets subcommittee on the House Financial Services Committee and one of the sponsors of the FIT21 bill.

Congress also quashed earlier this year an SEC accounting policy known as SAB 121 that made it difficult for banks to safeguard digital assets. President Biden vetoed Congress’s move, and the SEC later softened the strict stance it took on the guidance.

Even if the crypto industry scores some victories, issues on other fronts may be tougher to crack. The sector has long struggled with access to banking, sometimes using middlemen as solutions, due to banks’ unwillingness to take on clients whose business models revolve around volatile assets. The collapse of two crypto-friendly banks last year further diminished an already small subset of firms willing to bank crypto.

Finding banks to custody their crypto, rather than dollar deposits, has been even harder. And gaining access to the banking system would involve several regulators, including the Federal Reserve, whose leadership isn’t facing wholesale change in 2025.

Another bill died in the Senate Banking Committee in April that would have required stablecoins—a genre of cryptocurrencies pegged to traditional currencies like the dollar—to be backed by reserves. Stablecoins are critical to the industry as a source of liquidity, allowing traders to buy digital currencies on exchanges where fiat currencies aren’t accepted.

>>> What to look at today - 11th of November 2024

Asian shares declined after China’s debt swap program looked insufficient to some investors and data showed persistent deflationary pressures in the world’s No. 2 economy. A gauge of the region’s equities dropped as much as 1.3%, led by heavyweights including Tencent Holdings and Meituan. China’s CSI 300 benchmark fell as much as 1.4%, before erasing those losses to trade slightly higher. An index of Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong shed 1.6%. The broad weakness reflects lingering concerns about the prospect of the world’s No. 2 economy, after Beijing unveiled a 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) program to defuse local governments’ debt risk but stopped short of unleashing new fiscal stimulus. In addition to anemic inflation, sentiment toward China is also faltering as foreign direct investment continues to slump. Investors had hoped for more potent stimulus measures that would directly boost demand from a key Chinese legislature meeting last week, especially after Donald Trump’s presidential victory injected fresh uncertainty over tariffs. To many economists, Beijing’s stance signals an intention to preserve room to better respond to a potential trade war when Trump takes office next year. UBS lowered its 2025 growth forecast for China following Trump’s election, expecting an “around 4%” expansion for 2025, and a “considerably lower” pace in 2026.  Oil fell for a second day as a soft outlook for top importer China continued to plague the market, while iron ore declined toward $100 a ton. Elsewhere, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. slipped after a Reuters’ report saying the US told the firm to halt shipments of some advanced chips often used in AI applications to Chinese customers. Bitcoin surged past $81,000 for the first time, driven by the incoming president’s support for digital assets and the election of pro-crypto lawmakers. A bevy of smaller cryptocurrencies have also rallied. The dollar was broadly steady. The yen fell 0.6% against the greenback, ahead of the Japanese parliament’s vote later Monday that’s likely to keep Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba in the job despite a national election setback.  Meanwhile, Bank of Japan board members discussed the need for caution on raising its benchmark rate and offered no clear hint of a move next month, a summary of opinions from its October policy meeting showed.  Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari indicated at the weekend the central bank could ease rates less than previously expected amid a strong US economy. Kashkari emphasized, however, that it’s too early to determine the impact of Trump’s policies.  This week, traders will be parsing data from Australian jobs to Chinese retail sales and industrial production, inflation from the US and the Eurozone as well as growth readings in the UK and Japan. A swath of Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak which may help indicate the central bank’s thinking following the election result.  

Nikkei +0.08% Hang Seng -1.43% CSI +0.51% Shanghai +0.34% Shenzen +1.66%

Eur$ 1.0714 CNH 7.2023 CNY 7.1862 JPY 153.53 GBP 1.2914 CHF 0.8767 RUB 97.6000 TRY 34.3844 WTI$ 70.05 -0.47% Gold 2,670 -0.57% BTC 80,900 +1.22% ETH 3,140 -1%

S&P +0.21% Nasdaq +0.28% EuroStoxx +0.52% FTSE +0.42% Dax +0.53% SMI +0.46%

Macro :
- Dogecoin Tops Bitcoin as Trump Spurs Burst of Crypto Speculation
- ECB’s Centeno Warns Against Politics Blocking M&A: Repubblica
- Bitcoin on Cusp of $80,000 for First Time on Optimism Over Trump
- China Price Growth Stays Near Zero as Deflation Persists
- Lina Khan Replacement to Be Vetted by This Oxford-trained Lawyer
- BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Surpasses Gold Fund: Financials Wrap
- Trump Eyes Doug Burgum as New ‘Energy Tsar’: FT
- EU’s Von der Leyen Suggests US LNG Could Replace Russian Supply
- Rokos Makes Almost $1 Billion in a Day on Rally After Trump Win
- Crypto Pins Hopes on Reshaped SEC for Deal Revival Under Trump
- WTO Chief’s Bid for Second Term Sets Up Clash With Trump
- Carry Makes a Comeback, Pushing Pay in Private Equity Higher

Keep an eye on :
- AD NA : Ahold Delhaize Detected Cybersecurity Issue Within US Network
- ALC SW : Alcon AG to Report Results; Shares Up 18.5% YTD: Preview
- ALKB DC : ALK-Abello Pays $145m for Adrenaline Nasal Spray License
- ALM SM : Almirall 9M Normalized Net Income EU9.9M Vs. EU14.9M Y/y
- ANIM IM : Anima Nominates Goldman Sachs as Adviser After Banco BPM Offer
- ASML NA : ASML Was Hit by Global IT Outage on Friday, Spokesperson Says
- ASML NA : ASML, Tokyo Electron Queried by US Lawmakers on Sales to China
- ATO FP : Atos Says Bull SA Issued Preferred Share to French State
- BSGR NA : B&S Group 9M Revenue EU1.71B Vs. EU1.60B Y/y
- BX US : Bain Is Said to Near Deal to Acquire Blackstone’s Avery Lodge
- BKNG US : Booking Intends to Cut Jobs, Seek Real Estate Savings
- BRBY LN : Moncler Poised to Take Over Burberry: Daily Mail
- CON GY : Continental Cuts FY Sales Forecast, Continental Adjusts Sales Outlook on Muted Industrial Demand
- CVC NA : CVC seeks €700mn for its Italian pharma outsourcer Genetic
- DHER GY : Delivery Hero Tees Up Mega Dubai IPO of Middle Eastern Unit
- DLG LN : Direct Line 3Q Motor Gross Written Premiums GBP426.2M
- ECV GY : Encavis Prelim 9M Revenue About EU321.6M
- ENI IM : KKR, Macquarie, Vitol Bid for Stake in Eni’s CCS Unit, Sole Says
- ENI IM : EIP Raises Stake in Eni Plenitude to 10% Via €209m Capital Hike
- EPIX US : Tang Files 13D on Essa, May Hold Acquisition Talks
- ENX FP : Euronext Oct. Total Cash Market Transaction Value M/M +7%
- EVT GY : Excalibur LuxCo SARL, Affiliates Report Stake In Evotec SE
- GAZP RM : Russia Weighs Plan to Merge Biggest Oil Companies, WSJ Reports
- GRF SM : Grifols Holder Mason Opposes Potential Brookfield Deal
- HNR1 GY : Hannover Re Sees 2025 Net Income About EU2.4B
- HYQ GY : Hypoport 9M Revenue EU331.9M Vs. EU267.1M Y/y
- LEHN SW : Lem FY Sales Forecast Misses Estimates
- LHA GY : Alitalia will lay off over 2,000 remaining employees as liquidation nears
- MONC IM : Moncler Poised to Take Over Burberry: Daily Mail
- NOVOB DC : Novo Nordisk Buys 6.31m B Shares for DKK4.74b From Novo Holdings
- 1913 HK : Prada Family Has a Plan in Place to Avoid Succession Drama
- SAABB SS : Brazil Plans to Increase Saab’s Jas 39 Gripen Contract by 25%
- SAZ GY : Salzgitter 9M Pretax Loss EU141.2M Vs. Profit EU254.3M Y/y
- STM GY : Stabilus FY Adjusted Ebit Margin Beats Estimates
- Stada IPO : Stada Said to Pick IPO Bookrunners, Eye Kickoff Early Next Year
- Standard Profil Automotive : Car Parts Maker Standard Profil Hires Adviser on Refinancing
- STLA US : Stellantis to Lay Off 400 Workers at Detroit Facility: Reuters
- TSLA US : Hedge Funds Shorting Tesla Just Lost More Than $5 Billion
- THULE SS : Sweden’s Thule Group Agrees to Buy Quad Lock for AUD500m
- WBD IM : Webuild JV Signs A$1.7B Contract on Rail Project in Melbourne

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 11th of November 2024

>>> Up
* BASF Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 53 euros
* Bittium Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 7.50 euros
* Ceres Power Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 265 pence
* Citycon Raised to Hold at DNB Markets; PT 3.75 euros
* DS Smith Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 580 pence
* Hiscox PT Cut to 1,150 pence from 1,225 pence at RBC
* Hufvudstaden Raised to Hold at ABG; PT 135 kronor
* Kojamo Raised to Buy at DNB Markets; PT 10.50 euros
* Leonardo PT Raised to 30 euros from 28 euros at Bernstein
* Leonardo PT Raised to 30 euros from 28 euros at Mediobanca SpA
* MTU Aero Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 400 euros
* Norske Skog Raised to Buy at DNB Markets; PT 32 kroner
* Prysmian Raised to Reduce at AlphaValue/Baader
* Richemont Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 155 Swiss francs
* SBM Offshore Raised to Add at AlphaValue/Baader
* Studentbostader i Norden Raised to Hold at Arctic Securities
* Wartsila Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley

>>> Down
* Alfa Laval Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 430 kronor
* Anima Holding Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 6.20 euros
* DNO Cut to Neutral at SpareBank; PT 12 kroner
* Merck & Co Cut to Neutral at Daiwa; PT $100
* Mendus Cut to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 14 kronor
* Mondi Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 1,150 pence
* Nel Cut to Underperform at Jefferies; PT 3 kroner
* OKEA Cut to Neutral at SpareBank; PT 25 kroner
* QleanAir Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 22 kronor
* Tinexta Cut to Neutral at Mediobanca SpA; PT 15.50 euros
* Torm PT Cut to $36 from $40 at Evercore ISI

>>> Initiation
* AMD Rated New Market Perform at CICC; PT $155
* Springer Nature Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT 39 euros
* Springer Nature Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley
* Springer Nature Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 29 euros
* Springer Nature Rated New Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 33 euros
* Stellantis Rated New Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $13.92

>>> Call
* Alfa Laval Downgraded, Wartsila Upgraded at Morgan Stanley
* Leonardo PTs Boosted to New Street-High at Bernstein, Mediobanca
* Novo Nordisk Shares Put on Positive Catalyst Watch by JPMorgan
* Stellantis Inline at Evercore, Hard to Be Constructive Near-Term
* Subsea 7 Upgraded at Morgan Stanley, Wood Price Target Slashed

FT : Trump election victory deals blow to US clean energy industry

Trump election victory deals blow to US clean energy industry
Developers of solar and battery recycling projects put plans on hold amid concern about policy and federal funding support

Donald Trump’s US election victory has dealt a blow to the renewable energy industry, prompting at least half a dozen developers to put projects on hold and investors to dump shares. 

Canadian solar manufacturer Heliene is pausing progress on its $150mn plan to manufacture solar cells in the US until it gets more policy clarity from the incoming Trump administration. Battery recycling start-up Princeton NuEnergy is reconsidering its timeline to build a $300mn factory in 2028, the companies told the Financial Times. 

Clean energy fears Trump’s re-election spells doom for the industry. The president-elect has vowed to turbo-charge the country’s oil and gas production and do away with President Joe Biden’s climate policies on the campaign trail, including repealing the Inflation Reduction Act, the strongest action the US has taken to boost renewable energy. 

“We’re holding our breath before further investments can go ahead,” said Martin Pochtaruk, chief executive of Heliene. Solar Energy Manufacturers for America, a coalition which includes the largest US solar manufacturers, estimates about a “half a dozen” projects are waiting for more clarity from the new administration.

“They need more certainty before they can make those hundred million dollar, billion dollar bets,” said Mike Carr, the association’s president. 

Trump’s election and the likelihood of a Republican-controlled Congress have sent renewables stocks tumbling, as investors fear a slowdown in the country’s pace of decarbonisation under a Republican trifecta government.

The iShares Global Clean Energy ETF, which tracks renewables companies, fell 7 per cent after Trump’s defeat of vice-president Kamala Harris, while shares for First Solar and Denmark’s Vestas slipped around 10 per cent. Fuel cell maker Plug Power and residential solar service provider Sunnova were down by more than a quarter.

Funds that were positioned short against renewable names scored more than $1 billion in profits off the trade.

“Everyone’s now just kind of in a wait-and-see mode, as well as a contingency planning mode,” said Alan Alexander, a partner at Vinson & Elkins, a law firm that works on energy projects.

Enacted in 2022, the IRA transformed the US into a top market for clean energy investment and turbocharged the country’s pace of decarbonisation, spurring nearly $450bn in private investment since its passage, according to the Clean Investment Monitor. 

Trump has repeatedly attacked the IRA on the campaign trail, calling it a “green new scam” and vowing to “terminate” the $370bn in federal support for clean energy under the law. He’s also vowed to unleash the country’s oil and gas production and stop offshore wind projects and electric vehicle mandates on “day one” if elected. 

Wood Mackenzie estimates renewable deployment could fall 30 per cent if the tax credits are phased out and there are new tariffs on equipment and restrictions on permitting. 

“It is a big challenge to net zero,” David Brown, director of the energy transition practice at Wood Mackenzie. “It’s likely that this election could put us on a delayed transition trajectory.”

Multiple executives and analysts told the FT that the economic case for renewable projects will continue under Trump and expect IRA tax credits for power generation and manufacturing to remain intact. Despite interest rate pressures, solar and onshore wind remain the cheapest sources of new electricity, according to Lazard.

“We feel good about the future and how it’s going to go under a Trump administration,” said Eric Dresselhuys, chief executive of ESS, a battery storage manufacturer in Oregon.


While Trump rolled back restrictions on fossil fuel production and emissions standards, he also renewed tax credits for solar and wind projects and electric vehicles. Solar and wind installations grew 32 per cent and 69 per cent during Trump’s first term as president while electric vehicle sales more than doubled, according to a Raymond James analysis. 

Analysts expect offshore wind and electric vehicles to be hardest hit under Trump. Unlike solar and onshore wind, offshore wind projects require federal permits, and electric vehicles have become a culture war issue since Trump’s first term.

Chao Yan, chief executive of Princeton NuEnergy, warned that Trump’s proposed tariffs could increase the cost of components and equipment for renewable production and hurt domestic manufacturers.

The incoming president has pledged a 10-20 per cent tariff on all imports and a 60 per cent tariff on products from China, the dominant producer of clean technologies.

“It’s too much unknown. It’s hard to move,” Yan said. “We need to have time to internally discuss and also discuss with investors whether we need to keep the current speed or if we should be slowing down.” 

The Biden administration has set a target to reduce emissions by 50 per cent to 52 per cent from 2005 levels. Wood Mackenzie estimates a second Trump term could result in 500mn tonnes of additional carbon emissions in the energy sector by 2030.

“The clean energy boom is not going to stop . . . it’s a question of will President Trump allow America to keep being a leader in this space, or will he cede America’s leadership role to other countries, especially adversaries like China,” said Andrew Reagan, executive director of Clean Energy for America, which in October co-launched a six-figure ad campaign in support of Harris.

FT : Latin America’s hydro power bet suffers effects of climate change

Latin America’s hydro power bet suffers effects of climate change
Drought and floods have played havoc with production across region where almost half of electricity comes from water sources

It was Ecuador’s biggest-ever energy project, capable of powering every home in the country, gushed then-president Rafael Correa as he inaugurated the Chinese-built $2.2bn Coca Codo Sinclair hydroelectric dam in November 2016. 

The dam was one of eight planned by Correa, a leftwing populist, as he pushed for his nation to generate as much as 90 per cent of its electricity from hydro power, using billions of dollars of loans and construction expertise provided by Beijing.

Less than a decade later, that bet has gone disastrously wrong. Ecuador is experiencing power cuts of up to 14 hours a day as the government rations scarce electricity because unusually dry weather has left its hydro dams short of water. 

“There’s a huge deficit of around 1,000 megawatts of energy,” says Nicolás Mongardini, a Miami-based entrepreneur who has just visited his parents in Ecuador.

“Part of that is because of El Niño [the climate phenomenon] and the huge drought season that has struck Ecuador in the past months,” he says. “There’s a lot of water missing from the rivers and that is affecting hydroelectric power production. It started with eight-hour power cuts, then it went to 10, and now it’s 14, depending on the region.”

Ecuador’s hydropower plants have also been tarnished by construction faults. US army engineers have been called in to advise on how to save Coca Codo Sinclair from river erosion and a build-up of sediment that threaten its ability to generate power. In the meantime, the plant is running at around 30 per cent of capacity.

Neighbouring Colombia and Peru are facing drought-related problems with hydroelectric generation, as well, though not on the scale of Ecuador, which relies on water power for about 75 per cent of its electricity.

“Hydro power was the low-hanging fruit in terms of electricity development options, particularly in the Andes,” says David Purkey, Latin America regional director for the Stockholm Environment Institute, a research organisation. “It was the obvious choice — there was lots of water and lots of elevation loss which you could use to generate electricity.”

But, he adds, “anybody who was relying on water resources and the stability of water resources . . . got tricked by climate change”.

During the 20th century, Latin America seemed the ideal location for generating hydroelectric power. The continent harbours 31 per cent of the world’s fresh water in its rivers, lakes and glaciers, and has large tracts of uninhabited land that could be flooded for dams.

Multilateral development banks and governments provided assistance for a huge programme of hydroelectric plant-building between the 1970s and 1990s. Today, the region generates around 45 per cent of its electricity — some 200 gigawatts — from hydro, giving it one of the world’s greenest grids.

But rising global temperatures, sharply fluctuating rainfall patterns, melting glaciers, and the increasing frequency of droughts and floods are playing havoc with power generation.

Making matters worse, more recently built dams tend to have smaller reservoirs because of environmental pressure to flood less land, meaning they are much more vulnerable to fluctuating rainfall than older projects, experts say.

The International Energy Agency warned in a report in 2021 that Latin America’s average hydropower capacity could fall by as much as 10 per cent in the decades to 2060 as a result of the changing climate.

Further complicating matters for energy grid planners, the IEA said the effects of climate change would not be spread evenly across the region. Some plants, such as those in Mexico and Central America, would be much more exposed than others. In Ecuador, many of the new dams built by the Correa administration were located in the same water basin, increasing their vulnerability in the event of drought.

Ecuador’s long power cuts have hurt businesses, made life miserable for residents, and are complicating the electoral chances of incumbent President Daniel Noboa in February. He faces an opponent backed by Correa, who fled the country before being convicted of corruption and now lives in Belgium.

Noboa has slashed taxes on imports of diesel-powered generators and batteries, created new incentives for the private sector to invest in energy projects, and has even drafted in a Turkish barge to generate emergency power. But he faces criticism for not acting sooner to preserve dam water levels to mitigate the crisis.

Arturo Alarcón, a senior energy specialist at the Inter-American Development Bank in Washington, says Latin America needs to deal with the climate threat to its hydro dams by broadening its energy mix, while keeping carbon emissions as low as possible.

This would mean more solar and wind power generation and balancing the management of the power grid by cutting back on electricity generation from large dams during sunny or windy days, to conserve the water for use in cloudier or stiller periods.

Building more interconnectors between national grids could also help ensure greater resilience, although this is not a guaranteed solution.

Colombia recently refused to sell Ecuador power through their shared connection because it wanted to conserve power in its own dams, which were running short.

Although climate change is making it harder to guarantee the reliable production of green electricity, hydropower will remain a big part of the solution to Latin America’s power needs, Alarcón says.

“We have 200 gigawatts of hydroelectric power in the system,” he explains. “We can’t just substitute that with other sources. You have to keep them working . . . and diversify your energy mix.”

FT : Mixed news on China’s stimulus

Mixed news on China’s stimulus

Chinese stimulus
Holders of Chinese equities got mixed news on Friday. At the National Peoples’ Congress meeting, the government announced an Rmb10tn ($1.4tn) fiscal package to bail out local governments’ bad debts. The package itself, following the pattern of recent stimulus measures, is underwhelming. The Shanghai and Shenzhen CSI 300 stock index and the Rmb edged down on the news: 


Bad debt is a problem for China. Chinese local governments, which are not able to issue their own bonds, have traditionally used financing vehicles similar to investment companies to borrow money; after the real estate market crash, many provinces could no longer use land sales to pay back those loans, resulting in bad “hidden” debt not on their official balance sheets. Swapping out the debt will limit financial risks and free up spending capacity, at a moment when many local governments have cut back on public services. But the size of the relief is relatively small. From Tianlei Huang at the Peterson Institute:

The impact of this package on the immediate economic situation will be limited. [Finance minister Lan Fo’an] estimates that local governments will save about Rmb600B [$83bn] in interest payments over five years. [Rmb120B, or $17bn] each year is just too small to make a difference . . . the actual spending [by the local governments] so far this year is almost Rmb3tn [$417bn] lower than the amount that was budgeted [for] this year. 

Rmb10tn is probably not enough to make a lasting dent in the hidden debt problem. While Lan said there is around Rmb14.3tn ($2tn) in hidden debt on provinces’ balance sheets, the IMF put the number at Rmb60tn in a report last year. On top of that, the Rmb10tn number is not all new commitments. While Rmb6tn of new debt will be issued for the debt swap facility, Rmb4tn is debt that was already available to local governments for related purposes. 

Without more muscular stimulus, chances that the economy will hit the government’s 5 per cent growth target this year remain low. But more may be forthcoming. The MOF meeting in October laid out four goals of the stimulus, of which resolving local hidden debt was the first (followed by boosting bank lending, stabilising the real estate market, and supporting consumers). While we are not sure they will continue to be rolled out in the announced order, statements made by Lan imply the government will deliver on the other three goals. 

Markets have been impatient for details on the stimulus. The timing of this package, right after the US election, suggests that the Chinese government was waiting to learn who would win the White House before making strong financial commitments. And the scale of this package raises the possibility that the government is saving its fiscal firepower in order to respond to the Trump administration’s eventual China policies. A more concrete and substantial fiscal package may emerge soon.