FINANCIAL TIMES
-Elon Musk's SpaceX and xAI are set to secure multibillion-dollar valuation jumps through new deals, as investors race to support Musk's business interests. SpaceX is preparing to launch a tender offer in December, selling existing shares at $135 each, valuing the rocket builder at over $250B. Similarly, xAI has raised $5B at a valuation of $45B, almost double its valuation a few months ago. The double fundraising comes as Musk expands his focus beyond Silicon Valley to Washington DC, having helped deliver the US election to Donald Trump and becoming a key confidant. Trump has appointed Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to lead a new "department of government efficiency" to provide advice and guidance from outside the government and dismantle bureaucracy.
-The 2024 election may signal a more authoritarian future for the world, as the US has become increasingly polarized since the 1990s. The term "fascist" is often used to describe the current political landscape, with some comparing Trump to fascist dictators from India, Russia, Turkey, and Hungary. However, the leadership cult of Maga values virility and masculinity that has few parallels in Europe.
Political polarization is a key difference between the US and other democracies worldwide.
-German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has spoken to Russian President Vladimir Putin for the first time in nearly two years, as western powers position for an incoming Trump administration that has made ending the Ukraine war a priority. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy believes Scholz's call is a Pandora's box, as resuming contacts with western leaders is exactly what Putin has wanted for a long time - ending Russia's isolation. The call took place at a critical time for Ukraine, as Russian troops intensified their attacks and advancing into Ukrainian territory at a faster rate than at any point since 2022. Trump's victory in the US presidential election has raised doubts about future US aid to Kiev.
-Netflix's push into streaming live events was tested with the boxing match-up between Mike Tyson and Jake Paul. The bout, won by Paul, was available to all of Netflix's 280M subscribers at no extra charge, a departure from the expensive pay-per-view or premium TV packages associated with professional boxing. Boxing used to be a lucrative business for pay-TV networks HBO and Showtime, but both exited the sport due to declining popularity. Netflix's Tyson-Paul bout aimed to attract new subscribers, particularly to its advertising-supported service, which has about 70 million subscribers. Analysts at JPMorgan said the boxing mega-event should boost audience engagement and attract advertising-tier subscribers, viewers, and dollars.
-Donald Trump's cabinet nominees, including Matt Gaetz for US attorney-general and Robert F Kennedy Jr for health and human services secretary, are set for a rigorous Senate confirmation process that could potentially turn into a series of spectacles. The process will involve weeks of public scrutiny, televised congressional committee hearings, and make-or-break votes on Capitol Hill. Trump allies have been scrambling to protect the nominees, and some have even proposed circumventing the confirmation process and installing them via recess appointments, allowing the president to bypass Senate approval. The US Constitution grants the Senate the power to be consulted on and approve senior government positions, so a simple majority of senators must approve each of Trump's cabinet appointees. Although Republicans will control the Senate by a 53-47 margin from January, early signs suggest that Trump's most polarizing picks may struggle to win over a critical number of lawmakers.
-Spanish regional leader Carlos Mazon has claimed that an "information blackout" linked to the Madrid government was responsible for delays in sending out emergency alerts following the devastating floods in Valencia. Mazon, who has faced calls for his resignation and sparred with Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez over the crisis, did not mention his 3-hour lunch with a journalist and instead blamed deficient reporting by a river basin authority overseen by one of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's ministers. The crisis has led to the death of over 220 people, wrecked homes and businesses, and highlighted the threat of extreme weather linked to climate change. Mazón has faced calls for his resignation and has sparred with Sánchez over the crisis. He has sought to change the narrative in an address to the Valencian legislature on Friday.
-Russia has urged US President-elect Donald Trump to remain in the Paris agreement, while Saudi Arabia committed to transitioning to a green energy system at the UN COP29 summit in Baku. The geopolitics of the summit have been heightened by the threat of a US withdrawal from the pact. Argentina's President Javier Milei withdrew his negotiating team from the summit, raising concerns about an exit from the Paris agreement. In Baku, Azerbaijan, countries that have historically been viewed as blockers of progress at global climate talks defended the Paris agreement. Boris Titov, Russian President Vladimir Putin's special representative for international cooperation in sustainability, said it is not the right move for countries like Argentina and the US to leave the agreement.
-Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's chief of staff, Tzachi Braverman, has been questioned by police over suspicions of altering the timeline of his phone calls during Hamas's October 7 attack. The probe comes amid pressure over a separate investigation into the leak of classified documents to the foreign press, which led to the arrest of a media adviser and four military personnel. Braverman, who has been Netanyahu's chief of staff since 2022, was questioned on suspicion of forgery and breach of trust. His lawyer, Jack Chen, defended Braverman, stating that the claims against him were "baseless" and that the chief of staff acted within his authority and scope of position. The investigation relates to the first minutes of Hamas's attack on Israel, which is considered the worst security and intelligence failure in the country's 76-year history.

NEW YORK TIMES
-President-elect Donald J. Trump's pick for health secretary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., is a polarizing choice with views on certain public health matters beyond vaccination. Kennedy opposes fluoride in water, favors raw milk, which the Food and Drug Administration deems risky, and has promoted unproven Covid therapies like hydroxychloroquine. He has threatened to prosecute medical journals and has slash 600 jobs at the National Institutes of Health. Kennedy's nephew, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., is the nation's chief critic of vaccines, a public health intervention that has saved millions of lives. His views on certain public health matters beyond vaccination are far outside the mainstream. His relatives called his presidential bid "dangerous for our country." Kennedy's nephew, who calls himself a vaccine safety activist, has been criticized by the press, anti-vaxxers, and conspiracy theorists. Regardless of his views, Kennedy is a polarizing choice whose views on certain public health matters are far outside the mainstream.
-President-elect Donald Trump has named Karoline Leavitt, who served as his campaign's press secretary and worked in the White House during his first administration, as his White House press secretary. Leavitt, who is 27 years old, will be the youngest person ever to assume the role. She will be responsible for fielding questions from reporters in the White House briefing room on behalf of Trump, who has an adversarial relationship with the mainstream media. Trump expressed confidence in Leavitt's intelligence, toughness, and effectiveness as a communicator, stating that she will excel at the podium and help deliver the message to the American people as they work to Make America Great Again.
-Senators from both parties have sought to see the results of a bipartisan investigative report on former Representative Matt Gaetz's conduct, who Trump said would be his attorney general nominee. Speaker Mike Johnson has stated that he would "strongly" discourage the release of the report, which could lead to an extraordinary constitutional clash between the two chambers. Senators are charged with vetting and confirming a president's nominees, including the attorney general.
-The stock market's excitement following Donald J. Trump's presidential election has waned, with investors pondering mixed signs of what could come next for the U.S. economy. The S&P 500 fell 1.3% on Friday, dragging the index down 2% for the week, but major stock indexes are still up since Election Day. The drop is a reversal from the index's 4.7% gain last week, its biggest weekly rise in over a year. The post-election and post-rate cut enthusiasm has lost steam as investors are weighing the economic implications of Trump's proposed policies and his initial cabinet picks, along with comments from the Fed's chair indicating that the central bank may not be in a hurry to keep cutting interest rates. Cryptocurrencies are still rising on expectations that the Trump administration will be a boost to the industry through softer regulations, with Bitcoin crossing the $90,000 price threshold for the first time this week.
-President-elect Donald Trump is seeking to repeal a $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit, which would hurt American automakers. The Trump transition team is exploring steps to make electric vehicles more competitive with gasoline-powered ones, culminating with the elimination of the $7,500 tax credit for people who buy electric vehicles. Harold G. Hamm, an oil billionaire, has been discussing the $7,500 credit with the Trump transition team. The growth of electric vehicles poses a threat to the oil and gas industry, with the International Energy Agency estimating that the global rollout of electric vehicles could reduce oil demand by nearly six million barrels a day by 2030. Elon Musk, another Trump associate, owns Tesla and believes that getting rid of the tax credit would hurt Ford, GM, and other competitors to Tesla.
-Elon Musk, the founder of Tesla, has been known to cut costs by slashing them first, then fixing them later. In December 2022, he summoned finance executives at Twitter to a conference call and analyzed a spreadsheet containing the company's expenditures. Despite Twitter having shed over three-quarters of its employees, the company's spending still appeared out of control. Musk ordered workers to account for each item and ordered some items, such as car services for executives, to be cut completely. He confronted an employee responsible for a multimillion-dollar contract related to website security and claimed Tesla spent far less on the same task. After the employee pushed back, Musk said she was no longer with Twitter. This meeting was characteristic of Musk's approach to cutting costs. He preferring to cut too much rather than too little and dealing with the fallout later. Under Donald Trump, he is set to apply these tactics to the U.S. government.
-President Biden and China's top leader, Xi Jinping, are set to meet in Peru, where China has expanded its influence in a challenge to the United States in its own region. The two leaders have sparred for years about how the world should be ordered, with Biden describing Xi as a "dictator" and stating that the preservation of democracy is the "defining challenge of our age." Xi has accused the United States of being the "biggest source of chaos" in the world and warned against dangerous Western liberal ideas. As the two leaders meet as world leaders for probably the last time in Peru, it appears that Biden's vision of the world appears to be in retreat. The U.S. president is exiting the global stage with his stature diminished after Americans voted Donald J. Trump back into power.
-President Biden expressed concern about the "dangerous and destabilizing cooperation" between North Korea and Russia during a meeting with the leaders of South Korea and Japan at the global summit of Asia Pacific leaders in Peru. Biden, Shigeru Ishiba, the prime minister of Japan, and President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea strongly condemned the cooperation between North Korea and Russia, including the decision by North Korea to send thousands of troops to Russia to help President Vladimir V. Putin in his war with Ukraine. The three leaders emphasized the egregious nature of deepening military cooperation between the DPRK and Russia, including munitions and ballistic missile transfers, given Russia's status as a Permanent Member of the UN Security Council.
- Representative Jared Golden, a three-term Democrat from Maine, has defeated Republican challenger Austin Theriault in a narrow victory in his largely white, rural, and working-class district. Golden's narrow victory in this district, one of five Democratic-held districts won by Donald J. Trump in 2020, is a positive for Democrats and will help ensure that the Republicans' House majority in the next Congress remains narrow. Throughout the campaign, Golden emphasized a hyperlocal and nonpartisan message aimed at working-class people of all political stripes. He campaigned as a potential governing partner with Trump, saying he could work with whoever won the White House. For House Republicans, Theriault's loss underlined Golden's status as one of the Democrats' most battle-tested members.
-Georgia poll workers Ruth Freeman and Shaye Moss, who were defamed by Rudolph W. Giuliani after the 2020 election, received a watch collection, a ring, and a vintage Mercedes-Benz from Giuliani's lawyer, Joseph Cammarata. The deliveries were a long-awaited for the women, who are mother and daughter, and it was also a small down payment on what the former New York City mayor owes them.

NEW YORK POST
-Foreign leaders, Hollywood stars, and US political heavyweights attended a black-tie Mar-a-Lago gala to discuss new and rumored Cabinet picks in President-elect Donald Trump's second administration. The event took place nine days after Trump's electoral defeat of Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, with the group looking to gain the ear of the 47th president. The gathering also welcomed MAGA faithful from across the globe, including Kellyanne Conway, who was instrumental in Trump's 2016 electoral victory over Hillary Clinton. Trump, 78, also got caught up in the good feeling, dancing for the crowd and announcing a new administration selection during his America First Policy Institute event: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum.
-World Bank officials are concerned about severe budget cuts as President-elect Donald Trump pledges to cut US government spending. The bank has faced accusations of operating like a slush fund for bureaucrats despite a mandate to fight poverty and climate change. Top brass at the Washington-based lender have been on edge since Trump's election victory. Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy are slated to lead a White House advisory body called the Department of Government Efficiency, which could have the World Bank in their sights. This has sparked fear as they will desperately try to show they are saving money.

>>> Barron’s WeekEnd Summary

Cover:
-Nvidia, a leading AI chip company, has surpassed Microsoft in market capitalization, reaching $3.3T on June 18, 2024. The company's stock price tripled over the past 12 months due to high demand for its AI chips. Nvidia's stock has been a historically good investment, with investors enjoying a 33% annualized compounded return from its initial public offering in 1999 to the end of 2023. If an investor had purchased $10,000 of Nvidia stock in 1999, it would have been worth $13.2M on December 31, 2023. The company's culture begins with its founder, Jen-Hsun Huang, who has already gained fame as a prominent figure in the industry. As Nvidia's value has grown, his profile has grown, with his trademark leather jacket and silver hair being referred to as the "genius you've never heard of."

Interview:
-The retail industry has been challenging to invest in this year due to concerns about inflation and high interest rates impacting consumer spending. However, as rates fall and companies correct their mistakes, the industry could see potential winners. Barron's recently consulted Mari Shor, a senior equity analyst at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, who has covered consumer stocks for nearly 20 years. Shor joined the investment firm in 2003 and now heads the consumer research team, working with portfolio managers across various funds to find stocks that best fit their strategies and criteria. Barron's spoke with Shor in October and mid-November about investing in the rapidly changing retail industry and what to expect from this year's holiday shopping season.

Tech Trader:
-no update

The Trader:
-Inflation may not be as dead as previously thought, as the consumer price index released this week showed inflation growing at a 2.6% annual clip. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has said that the central bank could pause rate cuts if inflation looks hot, and market expectations for a December cut went from a near certainty to a coin flip. Markets had been pricing in all of the positive moves Donald Trump could make for stocks, including an extension of tax cuts. However, they seemed to have forgotten the other side of the ledger, including the possibility that some of the president-elect's expected policies, such as tariffs, could goose inflation even more.
-Airline investors are expected to experience a long and profitable trip in the coming weeks, with the recent news promising a long and profitable journey. Spirit Airlines, the industry's biggest disrupter, is looking to restructure its debt, which would wipe out existing shareholders. However, the election of Donald Trump could give the rest of the industry stocks some of their best tailwinds in years. Airline stocks have already soared on Trump's victory, in hopes that consumer spending will respond to pro-growth policies such as lower taxes and a change in regulation. Trump is less likely to share the Biden administration's concerns about monopoly power. The airline industry has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of consolidation over the past couple of decades, with fewer players giving existing airlines more power to push prices higher and build market share on lucrative routes. Delta Air Lines, United Airlines Holdings, and American Airlines Group have substantial market power, with Delta, United, JetBlue Airways, and Southwest Airlines more than doubled from late 2012 to late 2014, and American Airlines soared after emerging from bankruptcy in 2013.

Features:
-President Elect Trump's Cabinet-level Treasury job has been a surprise, with Larry Kudlow emerging as a top contender. He was not previously considered among the top contenders, including Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick, fund manager Scott Bessent, and former Trump trade advisor Robert Lighthizer. Trump met with Bessent on Friday, and Kudlow's odds of being chosen rose from near-zero to 24%. However, his odds fell to 4% after Bloomberg reported that Kudlow had told the transition team that he isn't interested in the position. By 5 PM (ET), Bessent's odds were up to 74%, with Lutnick at 19% and Lighthizer at 4%. Kudlow's odds had fallen to 3%. The Trump administration is making decisions on who will serve in his second administration, and hints on a decision will be announced when they are made.
-The drug industry has remained relatively quiet following Donald Trump's announcement to install Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services. Kennedy, a former leader of the most influential antivaccine group in the country, has previously criticized the pharmaceutical industry as a criminal enterprise. Public-health experts and investors have criticized the choice, but the industry itself has been more muted. The industry's two main lobbying groups, PhRMA and the Biotechnology Innovation Organization, have released low-key statements expressing their anticipation of working with the incoming Trump administration. This may be due to the industry groups not wanting to directly antagonize Kennedy, or they see room for a give-and-take with the Trump administration and an opportunity to roll back Biden-era reforms like the Medicare drug-price negotiation program.

Europe:
-The strong dollar suggests that US stocks may still be a better investment than foreign ones, according to Yardeni Research. The S&P 500 has outperformed the rest of the world over the past decade, with an average return of 13% a year. This is due to the health of the US economy and the growth of the tech sector. However, US stocks now trade more than 21 times earnings, compared to less than 14 for international ones, leading some to worry about a "lost decade." Yardeni Research, which recently predicted the S&P 500 would hit 10,000 by 2030, has been recommending investors stay home in US stocks since at least 2010. The S&P 500 was down by 1.6% on Friday but remains up 1.3% since November 5. The strong dollar could provide another driver, as the dollar has rallied 3.3% since Trump's election victory, its largest eight-day jump since 2022. This rally is partly due to Trump's tariff proposals and rising Treasury yields, which make the dollar more attractive for global investors. Yardeni believes that potential tariffs and the strong dollar could reduce the value of other countries' assets and put pressure on their economies.

Emerging Markets:
-No update

Commodities:
-Commodities may be a good investment option as higher inflation is potentially looming under a Trump administration and the asset class underperforms stocks for a second year. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is down 2% this year, against the 25% gain in the S&P 500 index. Most retail investors have little or no direct exposure to commodities, even as alternatives like private equity, real estate, and private credit become increasingly popular with wealthy individuals. A Goldman Sachs survey of family offices found that they had just a 1% allocation to commodities, against 26% for private equity.
It's estimated that $250B in various strategies, including mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, are devoted to commodities, less than 0.5% of the $50T-plus market value of the S&P 500. Commodities could perform better in the future, particularly if Donald Trump follows through on election promises regarding tariffs, which could spur higher prices.

Streetwise:
-AppLovin, a stock that has recently risen to $100B, is a company that specializes in helping app developers reach new users who will download their apps and become paying customers. The company's name, which dates back to 2012, was inspired by a 2007 movie called Superbad, where a high schooler secures a fake Hawaii driver's license with his photo and the name McLovin. The company's software platform, Axon, is powered by artificial intelligence and can help app owners grow in-game advertising revenue. The company also has a couple of hundred of its own casual games that generate valuable user data. The stock's recent rise is a testament to the company's ability to predict stock prices ahead of time and the rapid growth of the stock. The stock's current value is a testament to its potential for growth and success.

WSJ : Killer Robots Are About to Fill Ukrainian Skies

Killer Robots Are About to Fill Ukrainian Skies
Kyiv’s drone suppliers are ramping up production of computer-guided drones that are cheap and can’t be electronically jammed

KYIV, Ukraine—Killer robots have arrived on the Ukrainian battlefield.

In a front-line dugout this spring, a Ukrainian drone navigator selected a target—a Russian ammunition truck—by tapping it on a tablet screen with a stylus. The pilot flicked a switch on his handset to select autopilot and then watched the drone swoop down from a few hundred yards away and hit the vehicle.

“Let it burn,” said one of the team, as they observed a plume of smoke on a video feed from a reconnaissance drone.

Strikes like this represent a big advance in Ukraine’s attempts to use computers to help it combat Russia’s huge army. The drone that carried it out was controlled in the final attack phase by a small onboard computer designed by the U.S.-based company Auterion. Several other companies, many of them Ukrainian, have successfully tested similar autopilot systems on the battlefield.

Now, an even bigger breakthrough looms: mass-produced automated drones. In a significant step not previously reported, Ukraine’s drone suppliers are ramping up output of robot attack drones to an industrial scale, not just prototypes.

Enabling the upshift is producers’ successful integration of inexpensive computers into sophisticated, compact systems that replicate capabilities previously found only in far pricier equipment.

“None of this is new,” said Auterion founder and chief executive Lorenz Meier. “The difference is the price.”

Kyiv is set to receive tens of thousands of Auterion’s miniature computers, known as Skynode, which should hit the battlefield early next year. Vyriy Drone, a top Ukrainian drone startup, said it would produce several thousand autopilot drones starting this month. Other companies are also ramping up production.

Ukraine, with a population one-quarter the size of Russia’s, is reliant on maintaining a technological edge to hold off waves of Russian tanks and infantry. The use of computer-controlled drones is particularly promising as it significantly reduces the number of people needed to carry out tasks from identifying targets to striking them. They also offer a cheap alternative to more expensive missiles and artillery shells that could help Ukraine maintain its defense if the new Trump administration cuts funding.

Ukraine’s small explosive drones are already carrying out most of strikes on the front line. The large-scale production of autonomous drones could turbocharge Ukraine’s fight against Russia by overcoming the biggest obstacle those drones face: Russian electronic jamming.

“The tech has moved from concept to the battlefield, but the question is, will it exist in numbers to make an impact?” said Samuel Bendett, senior associate in the Europe, Russia and Eurasia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The advances also place further developments on the immediate horizon, such as enabling one pilot to control a swarm of several drones that can largely fly and coordinate themselves. Auterion’s technology is part of Ukrainian startup Swarmer’s efforts to implement drone swarms, while Vyriy is working with Sine Engineering, another new Ukrainian company.

Russia has also said it is using computer-guided drones to strike targets. In addition, several videos have appeared online claiming to show Russian explosive drones guided by long fiber-optic cables, avoiding jamming and providing a clearer video feed.

Ukraine’s nimble use and adaptation of aerial drones for reconnaissance and strikes has given it an edge over Russia since the start of the war. Ukraine has typically innovated faster than Russia, but the Kremlin’s advantage lies in its ability to increase production in its state-directed economy once it has equipment that works.

Kyiv’s drone makers are the antithesis of modern armament producers, which have become industrial behemoths. Ukraine’s young companies, operating under threat of attack and tapping innovation from all corners of society, have formed an industrial ecosystem of garage-sized factories and converted workshops. Coordinated with government help, many specialized in certain components, such as propellers, structural elements and motors.

With limited supplies of artillery ammunition, Ukraine has in the past year become increasingly reliant on explosive drones to hold back the Russian waves. The fast, nimble craft have four rotors and are about the size of a dinner plate. They are controlled by a pilot wearing goggles that receive a live video feed from an onboard camera. They are known as first-person-view drones, or FPVs, and have explosives attached that detonate on impact.

Russia has countered Ukrainian drones primarily by using electronic-warfare equipment that can down them by drowning out the signal between the controller and the craft. That means that, depending on the skill of the pilot, about one in five FPVs hit their targets, according to pilots.

Autopilot technology negates that countermeasure by integrating the control system into the drone via software loaded onto a cheap minicomputer.

Expensive missiles have used the technology, known as terminal guidance, since the 1970s. Companies including Auterion and Vyriy are making it small, cheap and smart—able even to track and hit moving targets.

Both companies’ solutions track a battlefield target using a technology called pixel-lock, where the drone latches onto its prey using its camera and computer, without needing to be remotely guided by an operator.

Vyriy aims for the lowest cost possible. It was founded after the Russian invasion in 2022 by 26-year-old Oleksiy Babenko, a motorbike fanatic who studied sociology.


His company developed software that allows a tiny, off-the-shelf computer costing around $15 to fly the drone toward a target, using a camera that costs about the same.

Babenko said the drones have a success rate of around nine out of 10 once autopilot is engaged but had recently encountered problems with Russian forces using electronic jamming to cut the analog video signal that the pilot uses to fly the craft to the strike zone.

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Vyriy is seeking to overcome the issue by enabling the video feed to hop between frequencies, as well as by developing a digital video link. The company is seeking to keep the cost under $50.

“The best thing is that it’s very cheap,” said Babenko. “We can’t put some high price video link.”

Almost all components for the drone are produced in Ukraine. The motors and camera come from China, while the minicomputer comes from another country.

Babenko and his co-founders put up $20,000 to start the company and money has poured in from the government, military units and charity funds who buy their drones. Ukrainian charities that source equipment for their military have been a key partner as they don’t require much paperwork, meaning they can buy something, give it to soldiers to test and try something else if it doesn’t work, creating competition between drone companies.

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“Now in Ukraine, if you produce something cool you don’t need a lot of money to make more,” Babenko said.

Virginia-based Auterion, which has supplied the Defense Department and other federal agencies with a variety of drones for several years, is part of Pentagon efforts to develop drones that can evade electronic jamming. For Ukraine, it only produces Skynode, a bespoke minicomputer the size of a small fist that already uses a digital video. The processor goes into drones built by Ukrainian companies.

Auterion differs from many other drone-technology suppliers because Skynode integrates a range of functions including guidance, targeting and networking, all using fully digital communications that complicate hacking or jamming. Meier, Auterion’s founder, compares it to how smartphones combined tasks previously handled separately by cellphones, digital cameras and satellite-navigation units. Because of its versatility, it has also been used on fixed-wing strike drones, which have a greater range, he said.


Once autopilot is activated, autonomous drones don’t depend on maintaining a signal with the pilot to reach their targets.
Skynode, which Meier said costs about as much as an Android smartphone, replaces the computer brain in almost any drone, he said. Meier is known in the drone world for having years ago created a variety of widely used open-source software.

Autopilot offers a string of advantages. In standard FPVs, the link between the controller and the drone relies on radio waves, so the drone needs to avoid large objects that can block the signal. Ukrainian drone teams often send up a second craft to hover in the air and relay the signal between pilot and FPV, allowing them to operate from a bunker and extend the range of the craft up to 15 miles. But the Russians hide tanks and other potential targets on the far side of hills or behind obstacles that cut the link as the drone approaches.

Using terminal guidance overcomes those issues. Autopilot mode can be engaged roughly two-thirds of a mile from a target—well outside the short range of jammers. Drones with autopilot can strike objects behind hills as they don’t need to maintain a signal with the pilot in the attack phase.

The onboard computer stabilizes the drone, meaning the pilot doesn’t have to constantly toggle the pitch and throttle to keep it steady. One pilot told Auterion that flying the drone and striking Russian targets was so easy that it was boring.

WSJ : How Radical Can RFK Jr. Be as America’s Top Health Official?

How Radical Can RFK Jr. Be as America’s Top Health Official?
Authority of HHS secretary ranges from drug approvals to Medicare

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has pledged to make sweeping changes to public health if he is confirmed as the nation’s top health official. He might hit some roadblocks along the way.

As secretary of the Health and Human Services Department, Kennedy would oversee 13 operating divisions with more than 80,000 employees, including the Food and Drug Administration, National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The agencies set scientific standards and policies that are widely relied on by state and local authorities as well as international bodies. He would have “the power to reshape and reorganize every single agency under his jurisdiction,” said Lawrence Gostin, co-faculty director of the O’Neill Institute for National and Global Health Law at Georgetown University.

“He would be able to strongly influence the public health recommendations that come out of those agencies,” Gostin said.

The president and HHS secretary can shape priorities with the budgets they propose for federal health agencies to Congress. Kennedy could influence new appointments to advisory committees, such as one that advises the CDC on vaccination policy.

But the 70-year-old environmental lawyer and vaccine critic is likely to face a tough confirmation process in the Senate. If he is confirmed, Kennedy would likely be forced to contend with legal limits, challenges and pushback from companies, scientists and doctors on some things he has promised, legal and public health experts said.

“It is very difficult to drive seismic change quickly in a rulebound, lawbound bureaucracy,” said Dan Troy, who was a chief counsel of the FDA under President George W. Bush.

Kennedy has criticized fluoride in drinking water and chemicals in food, and questioned the safety of vaccines. He has said he would fire FDA officials and curtail what he calls the food and pharmaceutical industries’ unhealthy influence on policy. He has said the moves would curtail the nation’s chronic-disease epidemic and contribute to his goal of reducing levels of pediatric illness within two years.

Most public-health decisions in the U.S., including whether to fluoridate public tap water and which vaccines to recommend, are made by state and local authorities using federal guidance. About 72% of the U.S. population with access to public-water supplies in 2022 had fluoride levels that prevent tooth decay in their drinking water, according to the CDC.

“It leaves a lot of latitude for jurisdictions,” said Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and author of the book “Crisis Averted,” about the role of public health in fighting outbreaks.

Still, as HHS secretary, Kennedy would have a pulpit from which to influence state officials, said Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel, a bioethicist who serves as vice provost for global initiatives at the University of Pennsylvania.

“It’s going to rearrange what states do in terms of vaccinations. What states might do in terms of distribution of raw milk,” he said. Kennedy has encouraged people to drink raw milk, which the FDA and CDC have warned can contain dangerous pathogens including E. coli.

Some of Kennedy’s ideas are popular, such as making foods healthier and fighting high rates of chronic diseases. But his proposed elevation has rattled drug and vaccine makers.

“They need to have predictability because it takes 10-12 years to develop these things,” Emanuel said.

John Crowley, chief executive officer of the Biotechnology Innovation Organization, a trade group, said he was eager to hear more of Kennedy’s current views. “Everyone should recall that under President Trump’s leadership we had remarkable success with Operation Warp Speed in the development of vaccines that literally saved the world,” he said. “I’m confident that we can find common ground and work together ahead.”

Kennedy would have power to make some but not all changes he has said he wants to make at the FDA. He could overrule the agency’s decisions about drug approvals. It is a rare step, but in 2011, HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius overruled an FDA decision to allow an emergency contraceptive to be sold without a prescription to all women and girls, regardless of age. The matter landed in federal court, which ordered a lifting of age restrictions.

Kennedy has criticized fees that companies pay to the FDA for review of drug applications. The arrangement ensures that the FDA has the staff needed for speedy reviews, according to industry executives, who say the fees are like a tax and don’t buy favor with the FDA, as Kennedy has suggested.

Eliminating it would require congressional action. Negotiations for a reauthorization of the Prescription Drug User Fee Act begin next year, and Kennedy could stall them, executives worry.

Kennedy has said he wants to fire FDA officials or eliminate its nutrition office. Civil servants have workplace protections. But Trump has said he aims to revive an effort started in his first administration to exempt some civil-service workers from such protections.

Troy, the former FDA chief counsel, stressed that at the agency only a tiny number of workers are typically political appointees. He said that writing a rule is a labor-intensive process that can take years and that removing a drug from the market can happen only through an “extensive legal process.”

Changing nutrition labels would be labor and time-intensive, Troy said, noting: “It took the FDA 15 years to define peanut butter.”

“I don’t really buy into the catastrophism on either side,” he said.

WSJ : TikTok Parent ByteDance’s Valuation Rises to About $300 Billion

TikTok Parent ByteDance’s Valuation Rises to About $300 Billion
Investors see Trump victory as a positive with threat of TikTok ban looming in U.S.

TikTok parent ByteDance is valuing itself at about $300 billion, one of its highest valuations ever, even as the Chinese tech giant’s popular TikTok app faces the prospect of a looming ban in the U.S.

The details
The valuation came in a recent buyback offer by ByteDance, according to people familiar with the offer, and suggests the company expects its growth to continue. A law signed by President Biden earlier this year would ban TikTok in the U.S. unless ByteDance divests itself of the app by mid-January.

The company’s valuation has ticked higher in share buybacks over the past year as ByteDance has continued to grow at a rapid pace globally. ByteDance valued itself at nearly $225 billion in a tender offer to employees in October 2023. A buyback in December 2023 boosted its valuation to $268 billion, according to a company email to investors seen by The Wall Street Journal.

ByteDance investors have viewed President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House as an overall positive for TikTok’s hopes in the U.S. Trump had supported a ban of the app as president, but reversed his stance during his recent campaign after meeting with billionaire Jeff Yass, a major ByteDance investor and GOP megadonor. Trump has said he and Yass didn’t discuss TikTok, as did a person close to Yass. It is unclear how much Trump can affect the law’s outcome.

Proponents of the law say it would prevent the Chinese government from spying on Americans or influencing the content TikTok users see. TikTok has said it wouldn’t comply with such interference from the Chinese government.

The background
ByteDance in recent days told investors it was looking to buy back shares at about $180 a share. Raising money for buybacks has become a popular way for companies to give liquidity to investors and early employees while the market for initial public offerings remains chilled.

ByteDance owns a number of businesses besides TikTok, including popular internet services in China. In the U.S., TikTok has been caught in the crosshairs of escalating geopolitical tension between the U.S. and China.

Concerns about the national security threat TikTok poses to the U.S. culminated in April when Biden signed the law that could ban the app. TikTok Chief Executive Shou Zi Chew has said the app isn’t going anywhere, and in May, TikTok filed a federal lawsuit arguing the law violates the free-speech rights of its users.

Several billionaires had announced plans to bid for TikTok, but ByteDance has said it can’t and won’t sell TikTok’s U.S. operations.

FT : Why Donald Trump’s tariffs won’t necessarily sink shipping

Why Donald Trump’s tariffs won’t necessarily sink shipping
The US is a sizeable, rather than giant, tassel in the global trade tapestry

To President-elect Donald Trump, “tariff” is the most beautiful word in the dictionary. His campaign-trail proposals included a 60 per cent duty on Chinese goods and 20 per cent on European ones. All things being equal, higher duties should translate into less trade. Isn’t that bad for shipping? Maersk shareholders think not.

The 15 per cent rise in the Danish freight company’s stock over the past month suggests hope that — at least in the short term — Trump’s tariffs won’t entirely snarl up the shipping market. The US is a sizeable, rather than giant, tassel in the global trade tapestry. In tonnes, it accounts for 5 per cent of global seaborne imports, according to Clarksons, a shipping service provider. Bilateral US-China trade accounts for 1.4 per cent of global seaborne goods transport. 

Tariffs could even raise US imports, at first. A surge looks inevitable, as importers seek to stockpile goods ahead of the duties kicking in. Even thereafter, consumers may swallow higher prices to a degree, and companies settle for lower margins.

Where stuff just gets too expensive, other imports could take up the slack. A harder bludgeon for Chinese-made products would leave European companies at a relative advantage in the US market. And even where locally-produced goods shake out ahead, it would take US companies some time to increase their production capacities.

The impact of a near-term surge in shipping demand would be amplified by the stretched state of the shipping market. Disruption in the Red Sea has lengthened journeys, and while freight rates are off their peak, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Rate is still more than twice as high as it was in 2023.

By way of history, Trump’s last experiment with tariffs ended up clipping global seaborne trade — measured in tonnes/km — by only 0.5 per cent. Trouble is, such calculations only stack up if global growth holds up, and trade mostly moves around to adjust to tariffs. But trade wars have a habit of escalating as recipients slap on tariffs of their own. Over time, that would sink global GDP, and shipping demand with it.

That’s particularly worrying given the sector spent its Covid-era bonanza on new ships. Next year’s fleet is set to be more than 40 per cent larger than that in 2019, according to Bernstein. The combination of looming risks to global growth and shipping overcapacity would certainly make for choppy waters.


The path from campaign pronouncement to actual policy is unclear, so it is hard to estimate with accuracy the size and shape of disruption to global trade. Investors are for now betting that it is nothing shipping companies like Maersk cannot navigate around.

FT : Tech investor Klaus Hommels targets defence start-ups in Europe

Tech investor Klaus Hommels targets defence start-ups in Europe
Founder of VC firm Lakestar plans to use more than €100mn of his own money in push to build region’s resilience

Veteran European tech investor Klaus Hommels said he would invest more than €100mn of his own money in defence start-ups, warning that it was clear even before Donald Trump’s re-election as US president that Europe needed to boost its resilience. 

The German founder of venture capital firm Lakestar, who was an early backer of companies including Spotify, Facebook and Revolut, said he was willing to invest a “nine-digit sum privately in defence . . . alongside [others]” to help bolster the region’s ability to defend itself.

Describing himself as an “emotional, mission-driven” entrepreneur, Hommels told the Financial Times: “We need to be more resilient, we need to build up capacity.”

Trump’s victory in the US presidential election has raised fears that the US will be much less willing to pay for Europe’s security. Although most countries have now met Nato’s designated target to spend 2 per cent of GDP on defence, experts expect the US to push for more.

It was “already clear from before that there is no way that you can keep on having that social romantic view that somebody else is bailing you out,” said Hommels, who also chairs the Nato-backed €1bn innovation venture capital fund. 

“We should as Europe have this self-esteem and the self-appreciation that we should be an independent self-governed continent with everything that belongs to it,” he added. “So the direction is pretty clear where it needs to go.”

Alongside investing via Lakestar, Hommels said he would “also invest considerably . . . my own money on it. I think it’s a fantastic risk-return profile but it also has a mission . . . You need to lead with conviction.”

European Nato partners are not doing enough to build a credible deterrence position and have scaled back defence spending 30 per cent since the 1990s, according to a new report by Lakestar on Europe’s capabilities. 

European leaders took an “overdose of tranquillisers” during peace time, Hommels said. 

According to Hommels, Europe has not been investing enough on fostering innovation at a time when military capabilities are changing rapidly due to the advance of technologies from drones to artificial intelligence. The research found that between 2011 and 2022, European governments allocated only about 4 per cent of their defence spending to research and development, compared with 14 per cent in the US. 

Europe also needed to ensure that it retained key capabilities, he said, with evidence that 40 per cent of growth capital for European ventures focused on “deep tech” — advanced technologies based on some form of substantial scientific or engineering innovation — coming from non-European investors.

“At some point if one motivation is sovereignty, then having the majority of the board not being European means at the end this company has no role to play in your own sovereignty,” he said.

Hommels said it was too early to say what type of companies he would invest in or what form an investment might take, and that Lakestar could also take part in any investments.

Venture investors, particularly in Europe, have long been wary of backing defence tech companies over ethical concerns but that has begun to change since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

While some investors remain wary of backing purely defence-focused companies, there has been a shift in sentiment towards technologies deemed to be “dual use”, with both civil and military applications. 

“Everybody gets it. Everybody understands that this is something we should be engaging in,” said Hommels, while acknowledging that investors’ appetite would depend on the target. 

Among Lakestar’s existing investments is Auterion, a US-based company developing software for civil and military applications, including to power swarms of autonomous Ukrainian-made drones that can communicate with each other. Another one is Isar Aerospace, a satellite launch service provider. 

“This dual-use stuff will be the topic for the next 10 years because it is a sheer necessity, not a fashion,” said Hommels.

FT : Trump team aims to bankrupt Iran with new ‘maximum pressure’ plan

Trump team aims to bankrupt Iran with new ‘maximum pressure’ plan
President-elect wants to force Tehran to drop its nuclear programme and stop funding regional proxies

Donald Trump’s new administration will revive its “maximum pressure” policy to “bankrupt” Iran’s ability to fund regional proxies and develop nuclear weapons, according to people familiar with the transition.

Trump’s foreign policy team will seek to ratchet up sanctions on Tehran, including vital oil exports, as soon as the president-elect re-enters the White House in January, people familiar with the transition said.

“He’s determined to reinstitute a maximum pressure strategy to bankrupt Iran as soon as possible,” said a national security expert familiar with the Trump transition. 

The plan will mark a shift in US foreign policy at a time of turmoil in the Middle East after Hamas’s October 7 2023 attack triggered a wave of regional hostilities and thrust Israel’s shadow war with Iran into the open.

Trump signalled during his election campaign that he wants a deal with Iran. “We have to make a deal, because the consequences are impossible. We have to make a deal,” he said in September.

People familiar with Trump’s thinking said the maximum pressure tactic would be used to try to force Iran into talks with the US — although experts believe this is a long shot. 

The president-elect mounted a campaign of “maximum pressure” in his first term after abandoning the 2015 nuclear deal Iran signed with world powers, and imposing hundreds of sanctions on the Islamic republic.

In response, Tehran ramped up its nuclear activity and it is enriching uranium close to weapons-grade level.

The sanctions remained in place during the Biden administration, but analysts say it did not implement them as strictly as it sought to revive the nuclear accord with Iran and ease the crisis.

Iran’s crude oil exports have more than trebled in the past four years, from a low of 400,000 barrels a day in 2020 to more than 1.5mn b/d so far in 2024, with nearly all shipments going to China, according to the US Energy Information Agency. 

Trump’s transition team is drawing up executive orders that he could issue on his first day in the Oval Office to target Tehran, including to tighten and add new sanctions on Iranian oil exports, according to the people familiar with the plans.

“If they really go whole hog . . . they could knock Iran’s oil exports back to a few hundred thousand barrels per day,” said Bob McNally, president of consultancy Rapidan Energy and a former energy adviser to the George W Bush administration.

He added: “It’s their main source of earnings and their economy is already much more fragile than it was back then . . . they’re in a corner much worse than even the first term, it would be a pretty bad situation.”

Trump advisers have urged the incoming president to move quickly on Tehran, with one person familiar with the plan saying the new US leader would make clear “that we are going to treat Iran sanctions enforcement very seriously”. 

Mike Waltz, Trump’s incoming national security adviser, helped to pass legislation while he was a member of the House of Representatives that would impose secondary sanctions on Chinese purchases of Iranian crude. The bill has not passed the Senate.

The maximum pressure campaign is designed to deny Iran revenue to build up its military or fund proxy groups in the region, but ultimately the goal is to get Tehran to negotiate a new nuclear deal and change its regional policies, the people familiar with the transition said.

Iran backs militant groups across the region that have been firing at Israel over the past year. Israel and Iran have also traded direct missile attacks against each other.

“We’re hoping that it will be an incentive to get them to agree to negotiations in good faith that would stabilise relations and even someday normalise them, but I think Trump’s terms for that will be much tougher than the Iranians are ready for,” said the national security expert familiar with the transition.

The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Among Trump’s national security team are senior picks that include his nominee for secretary of state, Marco Rubio, and Waltz, the national security adviser, who have argued for a hawkish approach towards Iran.

“Just four years ago . . . their currency was tanking, they were truly on the back foot . . . we need to get back to that posture,” Waltz said during an October event at the Atlantic Council. 

Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi this week urged the Trump team not to try maximum pressure again.

“Attempting ‘Maximum Pressure 2.0’ will only result in ‘Maximum Defeat 2.0’,” he said on X, referring to Iran’s nuclear advances in the years since Trump abandoned the accord. “Better idea: try ‘Maximum Wisdom’ — for the benefit of all.”

Iran’s new government, led by reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian, has said it wants to re-engage with the west on the nuclear stand-off, in a bid to secure sanctions relief to boost the country’s ailing economy.

After holding talks with Rafael Grossi, the head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog in Tehran on Thursday, Araghchi posted on X that Tehran was willing to negotiate “based on our national interest & our inalienable rights, but NOT ready to negotiate under pressure and intimidation!”

Even if both sides are willing to talk, chances of progress are slim.

“The big question is whether Ayatollah Khamenei would be willing to do a nuclear and regional deal with the man who killed Qassem Soleimani,” said Karim Sadjadpour, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“It’s tough to envision a nuclear or regional deal that would be acceptable to both the prime minister of Israel and the supreme leader of Iran,” he added.

Former Trump administration officials, including the president-elect, have faced increased threats from Iran since Trump ordered the assassination of top Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani in January 2020.

The Justice Department last week accused Iran’s government of hiring a man to set in motion plots to assassinate perceived enemies of the regime, including Trump. Iran has denied being involved in any plot to kill Trump.

A report in the New York Times that Elon Musk met Iran’s ambassador to the UN this week to discuss defusing tensions between the US and Iran raised expectations that Trump could be looking to do a deal with Tehran. The Iranian mission to the UN declined to comment.

FT : A small biotech fund gets a boost from Wall Street titans

A small biotech fund gets a boost from Wall Street titans
Catalio Capital has survived choppy years in the sector and returned more than $300mn to its limited partners

The list of investors backing little-known life sciences fund Catalio Capital reads like a roll call of private equity and hedge fund titans. Among them: Thoma Bravo’s Orlando Bravo, Brevan Howard’s Alan Howard, Stanley Druckenmiller and KKR’s Henry Kravis.

How a tiny biotech venture capital fund led by 33-year-old managing partner George Petrocheilos attracted such a kaleidoscope of finance luminaries is a story of equal parts hustle, chutzpah and connections.

It has not hurt that the father of Petrocheilos’s co-founder Jacob Vogelstein is a famed geneticist who has allowed his son’s firm to incubate companies bearing some of his most promising ideas in cancer treatment. Petrocheilos’s pater and mitera were also early-stage investors in Catalio, whose name is the Greek word for “catalyse,” or speed up.

Regardless of how Catalio amassed capital or marshalled resources, the firm’s work is paying off: It has returned more than $300mn to its limited partners in recent years, a rare feat in a tough market.

“This guy will call anybody — that’s the beauty about him,” Kravis said of Petrocheilos in an interview. “There is no one he won’t speak to. It is amazing how many people he has gotten to know over the years who adore him. They have given him money and they continue to give him more money.” KKR recently purchased a minority stake in the group, its first investment in an early-stage life sciences investing fund.

Led by its relentlessly networking Greek-born managing partner Petrocheilos and his co-founder Vogelstein, a scientist who met Petrocheilos while studying at Johns Hopkins University, Catalio has engineered 20 exits since it was founded four years ago. Its assets under management have topped $1.3bn, a speedy ascent in a sector that has struggled to attract new capital in recent years.

Vogelstein plays the role of the “quiet and smart” expert “digging into the science of investments”, while Petrocheilos is the networker and fundraiser with “more energy than an Energizer bunny,” according to Kravis, who serves as Catalio’s chair.

Catalio has managed to ride out a choppy few years in the biotech VC industry, in which firms have struggled against rising interest rates and a shortage of capital available to biotechnology companies spending heavily to develop products with uncertain financial prospects.

Petrocheilos was introduced to Kravis by KKR’s now co-chief executive Joseph Bae, who Petrocheilos first impressed over a 15-minute coffee as a university student. Bae offered an internship; instead Petrocheilos asked Bae to promise to have lunch with him once a year.

“I get many nos,” said Petrocheilos in an interview from Catalio’s office in New York’s Chelsea neighbourhood. “No today means no today, it doesn’t mean no tomorrow. Asking another time and another time is free.” Petrocheilos’s ambition has helped Catalio break into the clubby world of early-stage life science investing, which is dominated by venture capitalists in San Francisco and Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Alongside Petrocheilos’s hustle, Catalio’s other “secret sauce”, Kravis said, came from Vogelstein’s father, Bert, a famed Johns Hopkins researcher, who helped the firm assemble a roster of 45 leading scientists, including several Nobel Prize winners, to advise on potential investments.

The older Vogelstein’s laboratory has been the source of five of the 75 companies in which Catalio has invested, including its biggest exit to date: cancer diagnostics company Thrive, which was bought by Exact Sciences for up to $2.1bn. Vogelstein said he “never” expected to go into business with his son.

“Jacob obviously has the technical and scientific experience that George doesn’t,” said Vogelstein. “George has a large amount of contacts that he’s met, even though he’s young . . . that he has acquired both through his family and his own doing, which has been very valuable. They seem to be an ideal pair.”

Johns Hopkins has also proven to be a valuable network. The firm was first backed by Philippe Laffont, the billionaire founder of hedge fund Coatue Management and the father of a classmate of Petrocheilos and Vogelstein. Laffont, whose son briefly worked at Catalio, then made introductions across the hedge fund industry before eventually selling his stake.

KKR’s investment into Catalio is the latest in a succession of deals whereby private equity firms, including Blackstone, Apollo and Carlyle, which typically invest in large suppliers to the pharmaceutical industry, have bought stakes in biotech venture capital firms making riskier bets on novel treatments.

KKR’s Bae and his co-chief executive Scott Nuttall also have personal investments in the fund, alongside Druckenmiller, former Goldman Sachs chief executive Lloyd Blankfein and Greek basketball star Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Despite only 24 biotechs having listed this year across the whole sector, six of Catalio’s companies, including Arrivent Biopharma and Septerna Therapeutics, have floated. Catalio was also one of the first biotech funds to diversify into private credit, launching a fund co-led by Blankfein’s son Jonathan, an executive at the firm, that has generated annual returns of more than 20 per cent, according to investors.

With Kravis’s guidance, Petrocheilos has also assembled a “board of advisers” that includes major business figures who would not normally advise such a young fund. Members include Alex Gorsky, the former chief of Johnson & Johnson, and Dina Powell McCormick, an ultra-connected former top Goldman Sachs executive who is now a partner at BDT & MSD.

Petrocheilos predicts Catalio’s future may eventually look a lot more like a private equity firm in the healthcare sector, similar to KKR. “We would be open to all that stuff at one point,” said Petrocheilos. For Kravis, the similarities with his firm are impossible to miss: “They remind me of KKR in the early days: we didn’t think too far out, we just did deals.”

FT : Lebanon is studying US-drafted ceasefire proposal, official says

Lebanon is studying US-drafted ceasefire proposal, official says
Resolution would move Iran-backed Hizbollah troops north of the Litani river and create multinational task force

Lebanon is studying a US-drafted ceasefire proposal which aims to halt the war between Israel and militant group Hizbollah, the country’s officials have said. 

A Lebanese government official said the US proposal was for an initial 60-day ceasefire and was based on Resolution 1701 — the UN Security Council resolution which ended the 2006 war between Israel and Hizbollah but was never properly implemented.

The resolution calls for the disarmament of the Iran-backed militant movement in areas south of the Litani river, which runs about 30km from Lebanon’s southern border, as well as the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Lebanese territory. 

The proposal, which was delivered to Beirut this week, does not include giving the Israeli military freedom of movement or permission for the deployment of foreign forces inside Lebanon, other than the UN peacekeepers who already patrol the Lebanon-Israel border, the official said. Lebanese officials had previously warned that Israeli freedom of movement was a non-starter for Beirut.

The omission of Israel’s demand to be able to unilaterally enforce a ceasefire means Lebanon may be more likely to agree to the new draft, although it is not clear if Israel has abandoned the requirement.

Officials in the region said Israeli interventions in case of non-compliance could be in a separate US-Israeli understanding.

On Friday Lebanon’s long-serving parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri, whose party is allied with Iran-backed Hizbollah, said in an interview with Saudi Arabian newspaper Al-Sharq Al-Awsat: “There can be no undermining of our sovereignty.”

Berri leads the Amal Movement which has close ties with Hizbollah, and he is considered to be negotiating on their behalf. 

“[Benjamin] Netanyahu resorts to force when he wants a concession,” Berri told Al-Sharq Al-Awsat on Friday. “But he doesn’t know who he is dealing with, and such actions don’t work with us.”

According to the Lebanese government official, the US proposal also includes a “special mechanism” for implementing Resolution 1701 involving a task force drawn from several countries to provide support to the Lebanese army, which according to the resolution is supposed to be the only armed force in Lebanese territory south of the Litani river other than the UN peacekeepers.

The countries which would participate in this task force have not been publicly identified but would be announced if the peace deal is signed, the official said.

Many Lebanese politicians remain deeply distrustful of Israel’s intentions and sceptical about the prospects for a ceasefire. Another Lebanese official said on Friday that the chances for reaching an agreement were “below zero”.

The FT cannot verify whether Berri’s public comments accurately reflect the latest draft proposal. The text of the agreement has not been made public, and Israeli officials have not officially commented on the contents of the proposal.

A person familiar with the Israeli government’s thinking said that Ron Dermer, Israeli strategic affairs minister and a close confidant of Netanyahu, had visited Moscow, Washington and US president-elect Donald Trump’s Florida residence Mar-a-Lago this week to discuss the terms of a possible ceasefire deal in Lebanon.

“Understandings were reached” with the administration of US President Joe Biden as well as Trump, the person added.

Israel had previously demanded that resolution 1701 be strengthened, and that it should be granted the right to use force if the agreement’s terms were violated.

Netanyahu said earlier this month that a deal would have to restrict Hizbollah to areas north of the Litani River, stop the group’s rearmament and allow Israel to “act vigorously” against any threat.

Israel has stepped up its attacks across Lebanon in recent days, including launching four waves of air strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs on Friday.

Additional strikes were reported on Saturday in Dahiyeh, where Hizbollah’s headquarters are based. Israeli military officials have in recent days threatened to expand their ground offensive in south Lebanon.

Hizbollah began to fire rockets towards Israel after Hamas’ deadly attack on Israel on October 7 last year. As a consequence of the Hizbollah attacks 60,000 Israelis in the country’s north have been evacuated from the area, according to Israel’s government.

The Israeli military intensified its campaign against Hizbollah two months ago by blowing up thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies belonging to Hizbollah members, and ramping up air strikes. Two weeks later it began an invasion of southern Lebanon and pounded areas of south and east Lebanon dominated by Hizbollah. 

More than 1mn people have been forced to flee their homes and 3,445 people have been killed since October 8 last year, the majority in the last eight weeks, the Lebanese government has said. The health ministry also said Israeli strikes had killed more than 300 healthcare workers. 

Over 120 Israeli civilians and soldiers have been killed by Hizbollah’s fire in northern Israel and during the ground invasion of south Lebanon, according to Israel’s government.

Hizbollah has continued to fight on in south Lebanon and launches rockets, missiles and drones into Israel on a daily basis. But its leadership has been weakened as Israel has assassinated many of its top commanders and its leader Hassan Nasrallah.