TheChek News Flow

Weekly Market Update: US data and corporate commentary inflames worries Fed has fallen behind the curve

Volatility surged this week to levels not seen in more than a year while UST yields slid to the lowest levels in months. Renewed concerns about wider conflict in the Middle East, and more importantly, fears the US economy is decelerating at a pace that could lead to a more painful recession resulted in a forced recalibration. The heart of earnings season added to the mix as investors were hit with a barrage of corporate commentary that pointed to a consumer and economy under increasing duress. The FOMC offered little in the way of surprises by holding rates steady, to the chagrin of a growing chorus of Fed-watchers who wanted to see a rate cut. Powell clearly shifted focus onto the risks in the employment side of the mandate and indicated the committee was getting close to the time it would begin dialing back restrictiveness. Unfortunately his message wasn’t forceful enough to match the declines seen in labor indicators which culminated with a weak July employment report. It followed a broadly disappointing ISM manufacturing report that appeared to spook markets on Thursday, and led to a severe bout of risk-off flows. Worries intensified that the Fed was once again falling behind the curve, as investors and forecasters alike scurried to position for a much more dovish outlook heading towards Jackson Hole.

US Treasury yields careened lower this week amid a raft on softer economic readings. The yield curve steepened or di-inverted dramatically with the 2-10 year spread rising above -10 bps. Futures markets and investment houses now see a 50 basis point Fed rate cut in September with the potential for more than 100 bps in cuts by the end of 2024. Even before Friday’s jobs report, Jolts jobs openings showed the ratio of US job openings to unemployed workers has fallen back to pre-pandemic levels. Also, ADP employment data missed estimates and annual pay growth slowed to lowest level in years. Weekly initial jobless claims hit a 1-year high at 249K. ISM manufacturing missed estimates across the board, with the employment component registering its weakest reading since June of 2020. July payrolls, hours worked, and wages all missed estimates while the unemployment jumped two-tenths to 4.3%, officially triggering the Sahm recession indicator for the first time since the pandemic. Crude prices rose early in the week as tensions between Israel and Iran escalated after the assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran only to sell off on rising recession fears. Gold prices climbed ~10% through Thursday in light of a lower US dollar while handily outperforming bitcoin, but both sold off sharply after the Friday employment report. For the week, the S&P lost 2%, the DJIA was off by 2.1%, and the Nasdaq tumbled 3.4%.

In corporate news this week, the same major themes about spending on AI and a weakening consumer continued color the flood of incoming earnings reports. Questions lingered about just how soon AI products will start to have a noticeable impact on the broader economy, with Elliott Management reportedly telling investors that Nvidia is in a bubble and that AI is ‘overhyped.’ The earnings reports from Arm Holdings and Intel reinforced that case somewhat, with Arm guiding lower and Intel announcing a fresh turnaround plan after reporting disastrous numbers. Meanwhile Apple and Meta reported better quarterly results, and affirmed they expect significant capital expenditures growth for AI in the coming year. On the consumer side of the economy, McDonald’s reported an earnings miss and negative same store sales as management noted growing competition for value meals and a consumer that has become ‘very deal seeking.’ Amazon echoed this sentiment, saying consumers are looking for deals, while noting that its own capex increase is largely tied to AI spending. Consumer goods giant Procter & Gamble reported mixed quarterly results and said market challenges will not improve until the second half of next year, with only a slow recovery in the listless China market.

MON 07-29

(UK) Chancellor of the Exchequer (Fin Min) Reeves: UK budget will involve difficult decisions on spending, welfare and Tax; Will deliver the first budget on October 30th: Will be changing Fiscal framework in autumn; Will require treasury to share with the OBR immediate public spending pressures - statement on public finances

(US) JULY DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY: -17.5 V -14.2E

(US) TREASURY QUARTERLY FINANCING ESTIMATES: TO BORROW $740B IN JULY-SEP QUARTER V $760BE AND $847B PRIOR ESTIMATE; OCT-DEC TO BORROW $565B V $670BE

CHK Reports Q2 $0.01 v $0.02e

CNA Reports Q2 $1.19 v $1.21e, Rev $3.51B v $3.08Be (update)

CRWD Delta said to seek compensation from Microsoft and Crowdstrike due to outage on July 19th - press

ESGR To be acquired by Sixth Street for $330.00/shr in cash; Deal valued at $5.1B; Expected to close mid-2025

FFIV Reports Q3 $3.36 v $2.97e, Rev $695M v $687Me; Raises FY guidance

HEIA.NL Reports H1 Net €1.20B v €1.16B y/y, Op €1.54B v €1.94B y/y, Rev €17.8B v €17.4B y/y

MCD CEO: Seeing negative Q3 SSS trends across all segments; It is clear that our value leadership gap has shrunk recently; Pressure on consumer is broad-based; Consumer is "very deal-seeking" - post earnings comments

MCD Reports Q2 $2.97 v $3.08e, Rev $6.49B v $6.65Be; Domestic SSS -0.7% y/y v +1.0%e; Notes consumers are more discriminating with their spend

NVDA Announces Generative AI Models and NIM Microservices for OpenUSD Language, Geometry, Physics and Materials; Nvidia NIM is a comprehensive solution for deploying generative AI simplified for developers, but built for applications at scale

PHIA.NL Reports Q2 adj EBITA €495M v €453M y/y, Rev €4.46B v €4.45Be

TUES 07-30

(CN) CHINA JULY MANUFACTURING PMI (GOVT OFFICIAL): 49.4 V 49.4E (3rd straight contraction)

(CN) China Politburo holds meeting; China leaders set out economic priorities for H2 2024; China to shift policy focus to consumption; Reiterates prudent monetary policy stance; To accelerate use of special bonds; Urges better use of special sovereign bonds – press

(DE) GERMANY JULY CPI NORTH RHINE WESTPHALIA M/M: 0.3% V 0.1% PRIOR; Y/Y: 2.3% V 2.2% PRIOR

(DE) GERMANY Q2 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: -0.1% V +0.1%E; Y/Y: -0.1% V 0.0%E (back into contraction after positive print in Q1)

(IR) Iran Revolutionary Guards: Hamas Politburo Chief Ismail Haniyeh ‘assassinated’ in raid on residence in Tehran, Iran; Iran blames Israel for the assassination - financial press [**Note: Haniyeh is the most senior Hamas leader killed since the Oct 7th Hamas attack on Israel]

(JP) BANK OF JAPAN (BOJ) RAISES TARGET RATE BY 15BPS TO 0.25% (NOT EXPECTED); makes decision on bond buying taper; To cut JGB purchases by ¥400B yen each quarter to ~¥3T by Q1 2026

(US) Goldman Sachs analysts: Harris currently trailing Trump by ~3ppts in Pennsylvania; See Pennsylvania as a key state to decide the outcome of US elections in Nov

005930.KR Reports final Q2 (KRW) Consolidated Net 9.8T v 1.55T y/y; Op 10.4T v 10.4T prelim; Rev 74.0T v 74.0T prelim; In H2, plans to actively respond to the demand for high-value products for AI and will expand capacity to increase the proportion of HBM3E sales

ADM Reports Q2 $1.03 v $1.23e, Rev $22.2B v $23.2Be

AEP Reports Q2 $1.25 v $1.23e, Rev $4.60B v $4.54Be; Seeing unprecedented growth in portions of our service territory, Commercial load +12.4% y/y

AIR.FR Reports H1 €1.04 v €1.94 y/y, adj EBIT €1.4B v €2.6B y/y, Rev 28.8B v €27.7B y/y; Affirms Outlook

AMT Reports Q2 AFFO $2.79 v $2.53e, Rev $2.90B v $2.81Be; Raises guidance

AMZN Reportedly expanding one to two day delivery capabilities to more rural areas in US - WSJ

ANET Reports Q2 $2.10 v $1.94e, Rev $1.69B v $1.64Be

BP.UK Reports Q2 Net $2.76B v $2.59B y/y, Rev $47.3B v $48.5B y/y; Raises dividend by 10% from 7.27c to 8.00c

DGE.UK Reports FY24 $1.73 v $1.96 y/y, Op $6.00B v $5.55B y/y, Net Rev $20.3B v $20.4Be

FE Reports Q2 $0.56 v $0.56e, Rev $3.3B v $3.47Be; Commercial demand +7% y/y; Affirms Guidance

FNMA Reports Q2 Net $4.48B v $4.99B y/y, Rev $7.34B v $7.04B y/y; Multifamily serious delinquency rate at 0.44% v 0.44% q/q

GS CEO Solomon: 1-2 Fed cuts this fall seems likely scenario; No question seeing shifts in consumer behavior – CNBC

LSTR Guides Q3 $1.35-1.55 v $1.69e, Rev $1.18-1.28B v $1.33Be - earning's slides

MSFT Reports Q4 $2.95 v $2.90e, Rev $64.7B v $64.2Be; Azure Rev growth misses estimate; Commercial bookings pace decelerates

MSFT Guides Q1 Rev $63.8-64.8B (calculated) v $65.2Be - earnings call

MSFT TTN Earnings Call Summary: FY25 Capex expected to be higher than FY24 (*Note: FY24 Capex $55.7B v $31.9B y/y) to meet growing demand signal for our AI and cloud products; Roughly half is for infrastructure needs where we continue to build and lease data centers that will support monetization over the next 15 years and beyond; GitHub Copilot now being bigger than even GitHub when we bought it; Over 77K customers have adopted Github Copilot, +180% y/y; Github Copilot has $2B ARR

PFE Reports Q2 $0.60 v $0.45e, Rev $13.3B v $13.1Be; Raises guidance; Notes it sets foundation for future margin expansion

PG Reports Q4 $1.40 v $1.37e, Rev $20.5B v $20.7Be

QRVO Reports Q1 $0.87 v $0.71e, Rev $886.7M v $851Me

RIO.AU Reports H1 H1 Underlying Net $5.81B v $5.1B y/y, Underlying EBITDA $12.1B v $11.7B y/y, Rev $26.8B v $26.7B y/y

SBUX Reports Q3 $0.93 v $0.93e, Rev $9.11B v $9.22Be; Notes cautious consumer environment

SZG.DE Cuts FY24 outlook; Notes infrastructure projects long planned are being delayed, a situation compounded by persistently very high energy costs for procurement and grid usage, along with relatively high imports; Uncertainty prevails about a trend reversal after the summer

VST Receives Approval to Operate Comanche Peak Nuclear Plant Through 2053

WED 07-31

(CN) CHINA JULY CAIXIN PMI MANUFACTURING: 49.8 V 51.5E (1st contraction n 9 months)

(DE) GERMANY JULY NET UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +18.0K V +15.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS RATE: 6.0% V 6.0%E

(EU) EURO ZONE JULY ADVANCE CPI ESTIMATE Y/Y: 2.6% V 2.5%E ; CORE Y/Y: 2.9% V 2.8%E (Core CPI annual pace unchanged for 3 straight months)

(FR) FRANCE JULY PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.1% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 2.3% V 2.4%E

(IT) ITALY JULY PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.5% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 1.3% V 1.1%E (EARLY RELEASE)

(JP) BOJ Gov Ueda: Upside risks to prices require attention; will continue to raise rates if economic and price outlook are realized - post rate decision press conference

(US) JULY ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +122K V +150KE (lowest since Jan); Notes "if inflation goes back up, it won't be because of labor"

(US) JULY CHICAGO PURCHASE MANAGER’S INDEX (PMI): 45.3 V 45.0E

(US) JUN PENDING HOME SALES M/M: 4.8% V 1.4%E; Y/Y: -7.8% V -7.4%E

(US) Q2 EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX (ECI) 0.9% V 1.0%E

(US) TREASURY QUARTERLY REFUNDING ANNOUNCEMENT: TO SELL $58B IN 3-YEAR NOTES; $42B IN 10-YEAR NOTES AND $25B IN 30-YEAR BONDS

6752.JP CFO: In the US, EVs are not growing like before, their growth has slowed down - post earnings comments

ADS.DE Reports Q2 Net €211M v €187.1Me, Rev €5.82B v €5.88Be; Notes improved brand momentum with its consumer happened faster than expected

ADP Reports Q4 $2.09 v $2.07e, Rev $4.77B v $4.73Be

ALL Reports Q2 $1.61 v $0.33e, Rev $15.7B v $15.6Be (update)

ARM Reports Q1 $0.40 v $0.35e, Rev $939M v $907Me; Guides Q2 Rev below est at mid-point

BA *NAMES KELLY ORTBERG AS CEO, EFFECTIVE AUG 8TH; Appears to have no direct flight experience (same as entire CXO & Board) (engineer who rose ranks in Ro

BA Reports Q2 -$2.90 v -$1.68e, Rev $16.9B v $17.5Be; Notes making substantial progress strengthening its quality management system

BN.FR Reports H1 Recurring Net €1.16B v €1.13B y/y, Recurring Op €1.75B v €1.73B y/y, Rev €13.8B v €14.2B y/y; Affirms outlook

CDW Reports Q2 $2.50 v $2.51e, Rev $5.42B v $5.45Be; Notes continued economic uncertainty and the complex technology landscape has led customers to be cautious and measured in their approach to technology spending

COR Reports Q3 $3.34 v $3.18e, Adj Rev $74.2B v $73.6Be; Raises guidance

CNHI.IT Reports Q2 $0.38 v $0.39e, Rev $5.50B v $5.70Be; Cuts FY24 outlook again, notes lower shipments on decreased industry demand (update)

CTVA Reports Q2 $1.83 v $1.74e, Rev $6.11B v $6.10Be; Trims outlook "to reflect market realities and the continued focus on controlling the controllables"; Appoints David Johnson as CFO; effective Sept 16th

CVNA Reports Q2 $ v -$0.00e, Rev $3.41B v $3.21Be

DD Reports Q2 $0.97 v $0.85e, Rev $3.17B v $3.04Be; Raises guidance

GSK.UK Reports Q2 Adj EPS £0.43 v £0.78e, Rev £7.88B v £7.40Be

HUM Reports Q2 $6.96 v $5.89e, Rev $29.5B v $28.6Be; Raises FY24 membership guidance

HST Reports FFO Q2 $0.57 v $0.56e, Rev $1.47B v $1.47Be; Cuts outlook, notes current shift in leisure demand to international destinations and "moderating leisure transient demand"

KHC Pleased with the momentum we are seeing so far in Q3, particularly across our Heinz, Ore-Ida, and Philadelphia brands; We believe that recovery, while slower, begins in Q3 - prepared remarks

LRCX Reports Q4 $8.14 v $7.52e, Rev $3.87B v $3.81Be

MA CFO: Sees continued healthy consumer spending; Weather had a muted impact on spending trends in July - Conf call comments

MA Guides Q3 adj Rev 'high-end of low-double-digits 'y/y (implies $7.38-7.44B v $7.24Be); Affirms FY24 outlook; July MTD Switched transaction volume 11% y/y v 10% q/q, Cross-border volume 17% y/y v 17% q/q – slides

MAR Reports Q2 $2.50 v $2.49e, Rev $6.44B v $6.50Be; Trims outlook citing weaker operating environment in Greater China, as well as marginally softer expectations in the U.S. & Canada

META Reports Q2 $5.16 v $4.70e, Rev $39.1B v $38.3Be; Currently expect significant capital expenditures growth in 2025 for AI

META TTN Earnings Call Summary: Do Not expect our GenAI products to be a meaningful driver of revenue in 2024; Llama 4 expected to be the most advanced in the industry next year; Llama 4 will take 10x more compute to train than Llama 3; It's hard to predict how this will trend multiple generations into the future, but at this point, I'd rather risk building capacity before it is needed rather than too l

OR.FR CEO: Seeing consumer confidence in Europe is picking up - post earnings comments

PAG Reports Q2 $3.61 v $3.43e, Rev $7.70B v $7.70Be;Raises Quarterly dividend 11.5% to $1.07 from $0.96 (indicated yield 2.6%)

QCOM Reports Q3 $2.33 v $2.25e, Rev $9.39B v $9.23Be; Guides Q4 strong at mid-point

UBER Said to have reached deal to slow driver lockouts in NYC – press

UMC Reports Q2 (NT$) 1.11 v 1.27 y/y, Rev 56.8B v 56.3B y/y

WDC Reports Q4 $1.44 v $1.26e, Rev $3.76B v $3.77Be; Guides Q1 below est at mid-point

THRS 08-01

(DE) GERMANY JULY FINAL MANUFACTURING PMI: 43.2 V 42.6E (confirms 25th month of contraction); Decline in input prices eases amid pressure from shipping costs

(IT) ITALY JULY MANUFACTURING PMI: 47.4 V 46.0E (4th month of contraction, but highest since Mar); Strongest input price inflation since late 2022

(UK) BANK OF ENGLAND (BOE) CUTS BANK RATE BY 25BPS TO 5.00%; AS EXPECTED

(UK) BOE Gov Bailey: Decision to cut was finely balanced; need to watch services prices very carefully - post rate decision press conference

(UK) BOE Gov Bailey: Would caution against the view that the BOE would cut rates continually in successive meetings from here - Sky News interview

(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Cuts Q3 GDP forecast from 2.8% to 2.6% (update)

(US) BOFA INSTITUTE: WEEK-TO-JULY 27TH TOTAL CARD SPENDING -0.1% Y/Y V -0.5% AVERAGE IN JUNE; The sectors that saw the largest improvement in spending growth since last week were department stores, transit and lodging

(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 249K V 236KE (1-year high); CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.877M V 1.855ME (highest since early March)

(US) JULY FINAL S&P MANUFACTURING PMI: 49.6 V 49.5 PRELIM; CONFIRMS 1ST CONTRACTION IN 6 MONTHS; “Business conditions worsened in July as the first fall in new orders since April caused a near-stalling of production... hiring has slowed amid concerns over weaker-than-anticipated sales"

(US) JULY ISM MANUFACTURING: 46.8 V 48.8E; Prices Paid 52.9 v 51.8E; Employment: 43.4 v 49.2e (weakest since June 2020)

(US) Q2 PRELIMINARY NONFARM PRODUCTIVITY: 2.3% V 1.8%E; UNIT LABOR COSTS: 0.9% V 1.7%E

(US) Redfin: Homebuyers are not yet reacting to lower mortgage rates, with pending sales posting biggest y/y decline in 9 months; Redfin agents report that some prospective buyers, wary of political uncertainty, are waiting until after the presidential election to purchase a home

TTN Research Alert: During post FOMC conference, Fed's Chair Powell said he views Sahm Rule as statistical regularity; More analysts point out to Sahm Rule indicator for US recession could potentially be triggered as soon as this Friday, just after BCA Research's "Mel Rule" was triggered late spring

TTN Research Alert: US Initial Jobless Claims just saw 3 consecutive weeks when they run above last year levels; This week release's largest increase in jobless claims took place in swing state Michigan

7203.JP Reports Q1 Net ¥1.33T v ¥1.31B y/y, Op ¥1.31T v ¥1.12T Rev ¥11.8T v ¥10.6T y/y

ABI.BE Reports Q2 Underlying $0.90 v $0.86e, Rev $15.3B v $15.2Be

AAPL Reports Q3 $1.40 v $1.34e, Rev $85.8B v $84.4Be

AAPL Guides Q4 Rev 'grow rate similar to the June quarter' (implies +4.9%) v +3.9%e (implies Q4 Rev $93.9B v $93.0Be)

AMZN Reports Q2 $1.26 v $1.05e, Rev $148.0B v $148.6Be; Guides Q3 below est at mid-point; Notes continued reacceleration in AWS growth

AMZN TTN Earnings Call Summary: We're seeing signs of consumers being careful with their spend continuing in Q3; Seeing lower selling prices right now because customers are trading down price when they can; Customers continue to respond positively to our focus on low prices

CI Reports Q2 $6.72 v $6.42e, Rev $60.5B v $58.5Be

CLX Reports Q4 $1.82 v $1.54e, Rev $1.90B v $1.97Be; Sells the Better Health business and incurs $114-134M after-tax charge as a result

CMI Reports Q2 $5.26 v $4.85e, Rev $8.80B v $8.28Be; Raises mid-point of outlook, but still expect slowing demand in the North America heavy-duty truck market in H2

INTC Reports Q2 $0.02 v $0.10e, Rev $12.8B v $12.9Be; Guides Q3 lower; Suspends dividend in Q4; To implement $10B cost reduction program including thousands of job cuts (15% workforce reduction)

MAERSKB.DK *Raises again FY24 Underlying EBITDA $9-11B, EBIT $3-5B (prior $7-9B, EBIT $1-3B); Notes continued supply chain disruption caused by the situation in the Red Sea now expected to continue at least until the end of 2024, coupled with robust container market demand

MT.NL Reports Q2 EBITDA $1.86B v $3.00B Rev $16.3B v $16.9Be

NXT.UK Issues Q2 Trading Update: Q2 Full price sales +3.2% y/y; Raises outlook

SAVE Reports Q2 -$1.76 v -$1.30e, Rev $1.28B v $1.31Be; Summer demand remains robust; Remain in active discussions with the advisors to the noteholders to address the upcoming debt maturities and will provide updates on our progress when appropriate

SHAK Sales trends continued to see strength in July with SSS +4.1%; Guides Q3 Rev $312-317M v $315Me, SSS up low single digits %; Raises lower-end FY24 Rev $1.24-1.25B v $1.25Be (prior: Rev $1.22-1.25B) - shareholder letter

TTE.FR Reportedly despite the persistent noise in recent weeks, there’s no foundation to potential £300B Shell merger with TotalEnergies speculation – press

VOW3.DE Reports Q2 Net €3.63B v €3.79B y/y, Pretax €4.99B v €5.22Be, Rev €83.3B v €83.2Be; Will have to make significant cost-cutting efforts in H2

W Reports Q2 $0.47 v $0.50e, Rev $3.12B v $3.18Be; Notes its credit card data suggests that the home spending category correction now mirrors the magnitude of the peak to trough decline the home furnishing space experienced during the great financial crisis

WCC Preliminary month-to-date July sales per workday are down low single digits; Guides Q3 rev flat to down low single digits q/q, EBITDA flat q/q - earnings slides

FRI 08-02

(US) JULY AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS M/M: 0.2% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 3.6% V 3.7%E

(US) JULY CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: +114K V +175KE (lowest since 2020)

(US) JULY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 4.3% V 4.1%E (highest since 2021)

(US) JUN FACTORY ORDERS: -3.3% V -3.2%E

(US) JUN FINAL DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: -6.7% V -6.6%E; DURABLES (EX-TRANSPORTATION): 0.4% V 0.5%E

(US) SAHM RULE INDICATOR FOR US RECESSION HAS BEEN TRIGGERED IN JULY FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE PANDEMIC AS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE TICKED UP TO 4.3% (HIGHEST SINCE END-2021)

(US) Fed’s Barkin (voter) throws cold water on idea of a 50bps cut in Sept - NYT reporter

(US) Fed's Goolsbee (non-voter for 2024): Doesn't want to commit to a future rate path; The rate cut size will be determined by economic conditions - media interview

TTN Research Alert: In July, US workers unable to work due to bad weather were at 436K v 32K historical average; Persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of US civilian labor force, rose to 1.6% v 1.5% prior (highest % this year)

TTN Research Alert: Sahm Rule indicator for US recession could potentially be triggered as soon as today, if UR ticks up; Yesterday, Employment subcomponent of US July ISM Manufacturing came at lowest since June 2020; During post FOMC conference, Fed's Chair Powell said he views Sahm Rule as statistical regularity

CHD Reports Q2 $0.93 v $0.84e, Rev $1.51B v $1.51Be; Trims outlook but expects volume growth to continue for the rest of the year; Notes in June and July it saw consumption dollar growth slow in eight main categories to 2% from 4.5% during first 5 months

CVX Reports Q2 $2.55 v $2.88e, Rev $51.2B v $50.8Be

CVX Affirms FY24 organic capex $15.5-16.5B v $15.8B y/y; Q3 will have heavier than usual maintenance with several turnarounds at upstream assets; Sees Q3 share repurchases $4.0-4.75B v $3B q/q - earnings slides

NVDA Reportedly hedge fund Elliott Management has told investors that Nvidia is in a “bubble” and that AI is “overhyped with many applications not ready for prime time, many of AI’s supposed uses are never going to be cost efficient" – press

W TTN Research Alert: During earnings call yesterday, Wayfair said housing turnover levels haven't been as depressed since the great financial crisis, but on consumer, actually saw a better momentum in July than saw in June

XOM Expect >$19B of buybacks in 2024; Raises** FY24 Capex $28B v $26.3B y/y (prior $23-25B); This includes $25B for ExxonMobil, which is at the top end of the previously announced guidance range, and about $3B for eight months of Pioneer – consistent with their prior guidance. - earnings slides