>>> What to look at today - 5th of August 2024

A global stocks selloff deepened on Monday as concerns grew that the Federal Reserve is behind the curve with policy support for a slowing US economy, sending investors into the safety of bonds. Japanese shares plunged as traders priced in more domestic rate hikes. The Topix and Nikkei indexes were on the verge of a bear market, with the former set for three-day declines that would be the worst since the 2011 Fukushima nuclear meltdown. The yen rallied over 1.5% against the dollar on bets the Bank of Japan will keep raising interest rates. Shares in Korea, Taiwan and Australian slid, prompting a gauge of regional shares to slump the most in four years. Concerns about the US economy sent Treasury yields lower, while spreads on investment—grade dollar bonds in Asia were set to widen the most in 22 months. Futures contracts on US equities also declined during Asian trading. The price action underscores how quickly sentiment has shifted away from expectations the Fed will be able to engineer a soft landing for the US economy. Data on Friday showed that US nonfarm payrolls recorded one of the weakest prints since the pandemic, and the jobless rate unexpectedly climbed to above the Fed’s year-end forecast, triggering a closely watched recession indicator.  Bond traders have repeatedly misjudged where interest rates have been headed since the end of the pandemic, at times overshooting in both directions. Global bonds erased their losses for the year, as signs of US economic deterioration fueled demand for fixed-income.  Japan’s benchmark 10-year bond yield fell to its lowest since April, slipping as much as 17 basis points to 0.785% on Monday. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc.’s shares posted their biggest intraday drop on record as the fall in bond yields threatened to eat into loan margins. Asian currencies pushed higher - led by Malaysia’s ringgit - while the Mexican peso’s slump extended as traders continued to unwind emerging market carry trades. The sudden appreciation in funding currencies, such as the yen and China’s yuan, have damaged the carry trade, which typically involves traders borrowing at lower rates to invest in higher-yielding assets.  In commodities, oil rose Monday amid reports Iran may strike Israel to avenge assassinations of Hezbollah and Hamas officials. Elsewhere, Bitcoin sank more than 10% at one point before paring some of the decline. Gold edged higher.

Nikkei -12.70% Hang Seng -2.20% CSI -0.68% Shanghai -0.89% Shenzen -1.24%

Eur$ 1.0932 CNH 7.1258 CNY 7.1343 JPY 143.13 GBP 1.2798 CHF 0.8507 RUB 85.3387 TRY 33.2185 WTI$ 73.30 Gold 2,446 BTC 53,600 -10% ETH 2,350 -14.50%

S&P -2.65% Nasdaq -5% EuroStoxx -2.55% FTSE -1.30% Dax -2.30% SMI -2%

Macro :
- Buffett’s BofA Sale a Warning of Recession as Bonds Align
- Goldman Says Short Euro Vs Dollar on US Election, Targets 1.0750
- Iran says Haniyeh assassinated by projectile, denies bomb explosion
- EU States Set to Back Chinese EV Tariffs, Dombrovskis Says: FT
- *BITCOIN SLIDES 10% IN A BROAD CRYPTO MARKET SELLOFF
- Buffett’s BofA Sale a Warning of Recession as Bonds Align (2)

Keep an eye on :
- 1U1 GY : 1&1 Cuts FY Ebitda Forecast
- A4Y GY : Accentro Creditors Agree on Interim Funding for Interest Payment
- AAPL US : Apple Intelligence Has Long Way to Go to Match Hype: Power On
- AAPL US : Apple Investors Urged to Stay Calm After Buffett Slashes Stake
- ASMI NA : ASMI Slower Migration Risk After Blackwell Woes at Nvidia: React
- NDA GY : Aurubis 3Q Pretax Operating Profit Misses Estimates
- CS FP : Axa Says Proposed €5B BNP Deal May Help Fund Future Deals: FT
- CO FP : Casino to sell block of Pão de Açúcar shares on the market
- BDT GY : Bertrandt 3Q Ebit Loss EU7M
- IAG LN : BA parent intensifies Air Portugal pursuit after EU blocks Spanish deal
- CG US : Carlyle to Sell Cogentrix Energy to Quantum Capital for $3b: FT
- GALD SW : L’Oreal to Buy 10% Stake in Galderma; No Terms
- IFX GY : Infineon 3Q Revenue Misses Estimates
- K US : Mars in Advanced Talks to Buy Cheez-It Maker Kellanova -- WSJ
- LOGN SW : Logitech Co-Founder Says Guy Gecht Would Accept AGM Chair Vote
- OR FP :L’Oreal to Buy 10% Stake in Galderma; No Terms (1)
- META US : Meta Is Offering Hollywood Stars Millions for AI Voice Projects
- NAE LN : Neuberger Berman in Talks to Buy Nord Anglia Stake, WSJ Saysblp
- NTG DC : NTG Buys German Logistics Provider SSH for €39.1 Million
- PARA US : Byron Allen Prepares Topping Bid for Paramount: Semafor
- PETR4 BZ : Petrobras, Partner to Bid for 40% in Mopane Oil Field: Reuters
- PNL NA : PostNL 2Q Normalized Ebit Beats Estimates
- REN PL : REN Gets Portuguese Govt Approval for Transmission Projects
- SAY SM : Masdar Is Frontrunner to Buy Saeta Yield: El Confidencialblp again
- GLE FP : SocGen to Sell Private Banking Units in UK, Switzerland
- GLE FP : SocGen to Sell Madagascar Unit to BRED; No Terms
- TEF SM : Telefonica, Masorange to Create Spain FiberCo: Cinco Dias
- TTE FP : Business Day.za: TotalEnergies’ gas projects exit a ‘disaster’, says HCI CEO John Copelyn
- UTDI GY : United Internet Cuts FY Sales Forecast
- WSU GY : Washtec 2Q Ebit EU11.5M

WSJ : Iran Rebuffs Calls for Restraint in Its Response to Killing of Hamas Leade

Iran Rebuffs Calls for Restraint in Its Response to Killing of Hamas Leader
U.S. and Arab diplomats seek to head off spiral of violence over Ismail Haniyeh’s death in Tehran as Iran probes attack

Iran rejected U.S. and Arab efforts to temper its response to the killing in Tehran of Hamas’s top political leader, as authorities were investigating the security breaches that led to the attack.

Iranian prosecutors said Saturday that they had opened a formal investigation into the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, which came hours after an Israeli strike killed a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut. The two attacks, following a rocket strike on a soccer field in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, escalated a recent cycle of violence and threatened to push the region to the brink of war.

Iranian leaders have vowed to retaliate. On Saturday, Iran told Arab diplomats it didn’t care if the response triggered a war, according to people familiar with the conversations.

The U.S. asked European and other partner governments to convey a message to Iran not to escalate, warning any significant strike would draw a response and signaling that efforts by Iran’s new President Masoud Pezeshkian to improve engagement with the West would have a better chance if Iran shows restraint, according to people involved in the discussions. The U.S. also said, as a part of its message, that it was pressing Israel to de-escalate too.

Jordan said on Sunday that it had sent its foreign minister to Tehran, and the Lebanese foreign minister was also headed to Cairo to discuss ways to diffuse tensions.

Israel said it was prepared to defend against and respond to any retaliatory strike.

“Israel is now in a multifront war against the Iranian axis of evil,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday. “We are ready for any scenario—either defensive or offensive. I repeat to our enemies: We will respond and exact a heavy price for any act of aggression against us, from any arena.”

The killing of Haniyeh in Tehran, who was there to attend the inauguration of Iran’s new president was an embarrassing security failure for Iran. He was killed by a bomb while he was staying in an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps guesthouse, The Wall Street Journal has reported.

Iran and Hamas, which blame Israel for the attack, disputed that a bomb killed Haniyeh, saying he was struck by a missile. Israel hasn’t publicly commented on the killing.

Sadeq Rahimi, the deputy chief of Iran’s judiciary, said on Saturday that the country’s public prosecutor opened an investigation into Haniyeh’s death and issued an order to identify and arrest anyone who was either negligent or knowingly worked with Israel in the killing, according to the local Fars news agency, which is affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Some security officials have already been questioned, according to people familiar with the matter.

“Whether Israel has used infiltratory elements, human agents and spies, or it has committed this crime directly are under investigation,” said Rahimi, according to Mehr news, also close to the IRGC.

Politicians in Tehran have said the attack exposed intelligence failures by Iran’s security agencies. “There are gaps and contaminations in the security-information system of the country,” said Ahmad Bakhshaish Ardestani, a member of the foreign-affairs and national-security commission in Iran’s parliament, to Iran’s Didban news site.

Israel has put its military on high alert, while U.S. officials have worked to get military assets and regional partners ready to stop an attack that some fear could be broader and more complex than an Iranian assault in April.

“We are preparing for every possibility, just as we did in advance of April 13 when Iran attacked Israel and the United States and a coalition of our partners and allies worked with Israel to defeat that attack,” U.S. Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer told ABC News on Sunday.

In that attack, Iran fired more than 300 drones and missiles at Israel, but only after telegraphing its response to diplomats ahead of time and giving Israel and the U.S. a chance to prepare. Ultimately, most of the projectiles were shot down before reaching Israel. But this time, Iran has refused to provide detailed warnings that would help mitigate the impact of any strike.

Separately on Sunday, Hamas claimed responsibility for a stabbing attack in the Israeli city of Holon. The attacker killed two elderly people and injured two others, according to Magen David Adom, emergency rescue operators, and Wolfson Medical Center.

FT : Western governments step up calls for citizens to leave Lebanon

Western governments step up calls for citizens to leave Lebanon
Fears grow of all-out war in region after assassinations linked to Israel

Western governments have stepped up calls for their citizens to leave Lebanon while ​​commercial flights are still available, as an anxious region braced for the possibility of a full-blown regional war after twin assassinations in Beirut and Tehran. 

France urged its citizens to leave the country as soon as possible owing to the “very volatile ​​security context”, following similar calls by the UK, US and Jordan on Saturday, which cited the escalating tensions between Israel, Iran and the Hizbollah militant group.

“We encourage those wishing to leave Lebanon to book any available ticket, even if that flight does not depart immediately or does not follow the itinerary of their choice,” the US embassy in Lebanon said in an email to its citizens.

White House deputy national security adviser Jonathan Finer declined to comment on whether this advice meant the US believed Israel would strike inside the country soon. “We are preparing for whatever may come, but this is no prediction about future events,” Finer told CBS News.

“Leave now,” UK foreign secretary David Lammy told Britons in Lebanon. “Tensions are high, and the situation could deteriorate rapidly . . . my message to British nationals there is clear.”

Sweden on Saturday shut its embassy in Beirut, calling on all Swedes to leave the country as soon as possible.

Several airlines have suspended, rescheduled or cancelled flights to and from Beirut this week, including Air France-KLM Group, Kuwait Airlines, Lufthansa Group, Aegean, Emirates and Qatar Airways. Some airlines suspended services to Israel.

Israel has publicly claimed responsibility for the assassination of senior Hizbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut last week, but it has neither confirmed nor denied carrying out the killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on Wednesday. 

Iran said Haniyeh was killed by a short-range projectile that was fired into the official residence where he was staying in Tehran, and vowed to punish Israel.

The country’s Revolutionary Guards said on Saturday that the assassination was “orchestrated and executed” by Israel and accused the “criminal” US of complicity in the strike.

Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Lebanon-based Hizbollah, has also vowed revenge against Israel. 

Israeli officials on Sunday attempted to calm a nervy public awaiting an imminent retaliation by Iran and its proxy forces.

“We are all enduring very tense and complex times. Our enemies, part of an axis of evil, have declared their intent to attack us soon with great force,” Israeli President Isaac Herzog said. “I do not underestimate the severity of this threat . . .[But] I unequivocally declare: the state of Israel is prepared to confront this threat.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in public remarks, warned that “anyone who harms us will pay a heavy price”.

Israel and the Lebanese militant group have traded cross-border fire since Hamas’s October 7 attack. But the simmering conflict has not spilled over into a full-blown conflagration, thanks partly to US-led diplomatic efforts and partly to hesitation by both arch-foes to trigger a conflict that could devastate both countries.

Diplomacy has intensified over the past week to try to avert a regional war, while the US has deployed additional forces to the region.

Finer said the move was “entirely focused on defending Israel against potential threats it may face, and out of our desire to both deter those threats, defend against them and ultimately de-escalate this situation and avoid it sliding into regional war”.

As regional states sought to reduce tensions, Jordan’s foreign minister Ayman Safadi made a rare visit to Iran on Sunday to hold talks with his Iranian counterpart, Ali Bagheri Kani. 

Jordan was the only Arab state to publicly acknowledge that it helped shoot down Iranian projectiles that flew over its airspace when Tehran launched a missile and drone barrage at Israel in April. 

The foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman have all held calls with Bagheri Kani in recent days. 

At the same time, Hizbollah affiliates have lashed out at the US envoy who has been working to broker a deal between Hizbollah and Israel to end their clashes, accusing Washington of bearing responsibility for Shukr’s assassination.

The Lebanese militant group was not in a “listening mood”, said two people familiar with the talks, saying it would respond however and whenever it wanted.  

Many Lebanese who have the option have left the capital for areas deemed safer. But those that stayed filled concert venues, restaurants and bars this weekend.

“I fought with myself for hours about whether to go out or stay home but I decided a glass of wine or three would help calm my nerves,” said 42-year-old Selim Georges in a popular Beirut restaurant on Sunday. 

The calls by western governments to leave Lebanon added to fears as thousands of Lebanese expats who are home for the summer debated whether to stay or go. 

France estimates that about 23,000 of its citizens live in Lebanon, with thousands more visiting, while the UK estimates about 16,000 of its citizens live there.

Sunday also marked the fourth anniversary of the huge port explosion that ripped through Beirut and killed more than 200 people, caused by hundreds of tonnes of improperly stored ammonium nitrate.

Dozens gathered in downtown Beirut to protest against the lack of accountability for the devastating blast, with some blaming Hizbollah for obstructing justice.